Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley's report indicates that Macau's gaming revenue is expected to increase by 16% year-on-year in October 2025, outperforming market expectations, which is likely to positively impact MGM China Holdings Limited's stock performance in the next 60 days, with an estimated probability exceeding 80% [1] Company Summary - MGM China's market share has improved in October, contributing to a positive outlook for its EBITDA estimates for the fourth quarter [1] - Morgan Stanley has set a target price of HKD 18 for MGM China and maintains an "Overweight" rating on the stock [1]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley's technical research report indicates that Macau's gaming revenue is expected to increase by 16% year-on-year in October 2025, outperforming market expectations, which is likely to positively impact MGM China’s stock performance in the next 60 days with a probability exceeding 80% [1] Group 1: Company Performance - MGM China's market share increase in October is expected to boost its EBITDA estimates for the fourth quarter [1] - Morgan Stanley sets a target price of HKD 18 for MGM China, with a rating of "Overweight" [1]

Summary of China Travel & Leisure Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the **China travel and leisure industry**, particularly the performance of various companies in the sector during **3Q25** [1][2]. Key Points and Arguments General Market Trends - **Weaker Disposable Income**: Disposable income growth slowed to **4.5%** in 3Q25 from **5.1%** in 2Q25, impacting consumption trends which fell to **3.4%** from **5.2%** [2][3]. - **Domestic Air Traffic**: Increased by **3%** year-over-year (yoy) in 3Q25, down from **6%** in 2Q25 [2]. - **Outbound Travel**: Normalized to **15%** yoy growth, significantly lower than **34%** and **24%** in 1Q and 2Q25 respectively, as flight capacity returned to pre-pandemic levels [2]. Company Performance Highlights - **Songcheng**: Reported a **10%** yoy revenue decline due to competition and health issues [3]. - **CTGDF**: Revenue decline narrowed to flat yoy in 3Q25 from **-11%** and **-8%** in previous quarters, with a **14%** increase during the Golden Week holidays [3][6]. - **Jinjiang and BTG**: RevPar improved to declines of **-2%** and **-3%** yoy, respectively, compared to **-5%** and **-6%** in 2Q25 [3][6]. - **Chinese Airlines**: Benefited from lower fuel costs and traffic recovery, with domestic traffic up **13%** and international traffic up **11%** [6]. - **Shiji**: Revenue increased by **7%** yoy, but net loss widened to **Rmb12 million** due to higher impairment losses [6]. Macau Casino Performance - **Macau GGR**: Increased by **13%** yoy in 3Q25, up from **8%** in 2Q25, driven by factors such as the wealth effect from the stock market and reduced diversion of travelers to other destinations [7]. - **Sands China and MGM**: Results exceeded expectations, with Sands China expected to report **US$1.901 billion** and MGM **US$1.091 billion** in revenue for 3Q25 [7][10]. Samsonite Expectations - Expected to report a narrower revenue decline of **-2%** yoy in 3Q25, improved from **-5%** in 2Q25, driven by better performance in the US and Asia [7][10]. Hotel Operators - **H World and Atour**: Both expected to report better-than-expected results due to stabilizing hotel RevPar and robust retail sales growth [7][10]. - **RevPar Forecasts**: H World and Atour projected declines of **-0.4%** and **-3%** yoy, respectively, with revenue growth forecasts of **+7%** and **+35%** yoy [8][10]. OTA Performance - **Trip.com and Tongcheng**: Expected to meet revenue guidance with Trip.com projected to grow **+15%** and Tongcheng **+9%** [9][10]. - **Profit Margins**: Potential for improved profit margins due to favorable revenue mix shifts towards higher-margin businesses [9]. Other Important Insights - **Investor Focus**: Investors are expected to pay close attention to companies' forward guidance during their 3Q25 results to assess the sustainability of the recovery [2][10]. - **Valuation Considerations**: Despite recent performance, share prices of US-listed chain hotels are still trading below mid-cycle valuations, indicating potential for upward earnings revisions [10][11]. Conclusion - The China travel and leisure industry is showing signs of recovery, although challenges remain due to weaker consumer spending and competition. Companies like H World, Atour, and TCOM are positioned well for growth, while Macau casinos are benefiting from a rebound in gaming revenue. Investors should remain cautious but optimistic about the sector's trajectory moving forward.

Group 1 - MGM China Holdings Limited (02282.HK) saw a stock price increase of over 4%, currently trading at 15.45 HKD, with a trading volume of 19.9068 million HKD [1]

Core Insights - UBS reports that Macau's total gaming revenue for October reached approximately 24.1 billion MOP, representing a year-on-year increase of 16% and a month-on-month increase of 32%, exceeding market expectations [1] - The average daily gaming revenue for October was about 777 million MOP, driven by strong performance following the Golden Week [1] - From October 6 to 31, the average daily gaming revenue was approximately 715 million MOP, which, despite a 35% decline from the peak during the Golden Week, was still higher than September's 610 million MOP and better than the historical average decline of 40% [1] Market Expectations - The market anticipates that November's total gaming revenue will normalize, with an expected average daily revenue of around 673 million MOP, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 10% but a month-on-month decline of 13%, aligning with the seasonal patterns observed from 2015 to 2019 [1] Stock Recommendations - UBS's preferred stocks in the sector include Wynn Macau (01128), MGM China (02282), and Galaxy Entertainment (00027), all rated as "Buy" with target prices set at 8.4 HKD, 19.8 HKD, and 46.9 HKD respectively [1]

中金发布研报称，美高梅中国25Q3业绩好于市场一致预期；受到高端需求驱动，公司业务表现强劲， 美狮美高梅和澳门美高梅总博彩收入分别恢复至3Q19的170%和104%。该行指出，鉴于2025年10月博彩 收入市场份额的强劲表现，管理层预计美高梅中国将实现超1亿美元的EBITDA，有望创下单月收入和 EBITDA数据的历史新高。 消息面上，近日，美高梅中国公布2025年第三季度业绩，总收益约85.1亿港元，同比增长17.39%，主要 由于主场地赌枱投注额增加所致。总经调整EBITDA为约23.73亿港元，同比增长19.6%。 美高梅中国(02282)涨超4%，截至发稿，涨3.83%，报15.45港元，成交额1990.68万港元。 ...

Core Viewpoint - MGM China reported strong Q3 2025 results, driven by increased gaming table bets, with total revenue reaching approximately HKD 8.51 billion, a year-on-year increase of 17.39% [1] Financial Performance - Total revenue for Q3 2025 was approximately HKD 8.51 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 17.39% [1] - Adjusted EBITDA was around HKD 2.373 billion, showing a year-on-year increase of 19.6% [1] Market Position and Outlook - CICC's report indicates that MGM China's Q3 2025 performance exceeded market consensus expectations, driven by high-end demand [1] - The total gaming revenue for MGM Cotai and MGM Macau has recovered to 170% and 104% of Q3 2019 levels, respectively [1] - Management anticipates that MGM China will achieve over USD 100 million in EBITDA by October 2025, potentially setting historical highs for monthly revenue and EBITDA figures [1]

Core Viewpoint - MGM China reported strong financial results for Q3 2025, with significant year-over-year growth in net revenue and adjusted EBITDA, indicating a robust recovery in the gaming sector [1][2]. Financial Performance - Q3 2025 net revenue reached HK$8.5 billion, reflecting a 17% increase year-over-year and a 53% increase compared to Q3 2019 [1]. - Adjusted EBITDA for the same period was HK$2.37 billion, marking a 20% year-over-year growth [1]. - Total gross gaming revenue (GGR) increased by 20% year-over-year, and was up 36% compared to Q3 2019 [2]. - Mass GGR saw a remarkable growth of 101%, while slot machine GGR grew by 36%, and VIP GGR recovered by 43% compared to Q3 2019 [2]. Market Position - MGM China's market share in Q3 was reported at 15.5%, which improved to 16.5% during the October Golden Week [2]. Future Projects - The Alpha Gaming Club at MGM Macau opened at the end of September, featuring nearly 30 gaming tables [3]. - A project to convert 160 standard rooms into 60 suites at MGM Cotai is expected to be completed in the first half of 2026 [3]. - The company plans to continue focusing on the premium mass business as part of its strategic direction [3]. Investment Outlook - The company maintains a target price of HK$19, indicating a 26% upside potential, and continues to hold a Buy rating [1][3].

Core Viewpoint - MGM China reported better-than-expected performance for Q3 2025, with net revenue of HKD 8.51 billion, a year-on-year increase of 17% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 2%, recovering to 147% of Q3 2019 levels [1] Financial Performance - Adjusted EBITDA for Q3 2025 was HKD 2.373 billion, up 20% year-on-year and down 6% quarter-on-quarter, recovering to 153% of Q3 2019 levels, exceeding Bloomberg consensus estimate of HKD 2.304 billion [1] - Total gaming revenue for MGM Cotai and MGM Macau reached 170% and 104% of Q3 2019 levels, respectively, driven by high-end demand [1] Development Trends - Management noted strong performance during the Golden Week, with total gaming revenue achieving year-on-year growth and a market share of 16.5% in October, outperforming the industry [1] - Management expects MGM China to achieve over USD 100 million in EBITDA by October 2025, potentially setting historical highs for monthly revenue and EBITDA [1] - Despite increasing industry competition, management remains confident in maintaining market share through high-quality products and services [1] - The Alpha gaming area opened at MGM Macau at the end of Q3 2025, featuring 30 gaming tables, Alpha villas, and a cigar bar [1] - MGM Cotai has begun renovation projects to convert 160 standard rooms into 60 suites, primarily two-bedroom suites, expected to be completed in the first half of 2026 to meet evolving customer preferences [1] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company maintains its adjusted EBITDA forecasts for 2025 and 2026, with the current stock price corresponding to 6 times the 2026 projected EV/EBITDA [2] - The company maintains an "outperform" rating and a target price of HKD 19.80, corresponding to 8 times the 2026 projected EV/EBITDA, indicating a 31% upside from the current stock price [2]

Core Viewpoint - MGM China Holdings Limited reported its unaudited financial results for the third quarter ending September 30, 2025, showing significant growth in revenue and adjusted EBITDA compared to the previous year [1] Financial Performance - Total revenue for the third quarter was approximately HKD 8.51 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 17.39% [1] - Adjusted EBITDA for the third quarter was approximately HKD 2.373 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 19.6% [1] - Net income for the third quarter was approximately USD 1.088 billion, marking a year-on-year increase of 17.03% [1] Segment Performance - Revenue from MGM Macau was approximately HKD 3.394 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 11.64% [1] - The occupancy rate for MGM Macau was 92.6%, a decrease of 2.4 percentage points year-on-year [1] - RevPAR (Revenue per Available Room) for MGM Macau was HKD 2,481, a decrease of 1.12% year-on-year [1] - Revenue from MGM Cotai was approximately HKD 5.115 billion, showing a year-on-year increase of 21.54% [1] - The occupancy rate for MGM Cotai was 94%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points year-on-year [1] - RevPAR for MGM Cotai was HKD 2,111, a decrease of 1.49% year-on-year [1]