丨证券研究报告丨 港股研究丨公司点评丨中国财险（2328.HK） [Table_Title] 中国财险点评：绩优保险股，配置正当时 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 资本市场波动、自然灾害等短期因素并不影响公司稳健的基本面和盈利能力，同时伴随着对于 市场竞争监管的增强，判断行业中长期集中度将持续上行，看好公司资负两端改善和估值上行 空间。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 吴一凡 谢宇尘 SAC：S0490519080007 SAC：S0490521020001 SFC：BUV596 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2025 年 4 月 7 日，受资本市场震荡影响，中国财险跌 13.25%。 事件评论 风险提示 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 中国财险（2328.HK） cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title2] 中国财险点评：绩优保险股，配置正当时 [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 丨证券研究报告丨 2025-04-08 港股研究丨公司点评 [Table_Rank]投资评级 买入丨维持 公司基础数据 [Ta ...

Financial Performance - The company reported original insurance premium income of RMB 538,055 million for 2024, an increase of 4.3% from RMB 515,807 million in 2023[9]. - Insurance service income rose to RMB 485,223 million, reflecting a growth of 6.1% compared to RMB 457,203 million in the previous year[9]. - The company achieved a net profit of RMB 32,161 million, marking a 30.9% increase from RMB 24,566 million in 2023[9]. - Total assets increased by 10.6% to RMB 778,244 million, up from RMB 703,623 million in 2023[11]. - Total liabilities rose by 10.3% to RMB 517,622 million compared to RMB 469,319 million in the previous year[11]. - The company’s total equity increased by 11.2% to RMB 260,622 million from RMB 234,304 million in 2023[11]. - The comprehensive solvency ratio stood at 232.6%, while the core solvency ratio was at 211.0%[15]. - The comprehensive cost ratio stood at 98.8%, with underwriting profit amounting to CNY 5.71 billion and total investment income reaching CNY 34.94 billion, resulting in a net profit of CNY 32.16 billion and a return on equity of 13.0%[21]. - Total investment income amounted to RMB 34.94 billion, with a net profit of RMB 32.16 billion, marking a historical high and a net asset return rate of 13.0%, up 2.2 percentage points year-on-year[27]. - The company's pre-tax profit for 2024 was RMB 38.02 billion, an increase of RMB 9.98 billion (or 35.6%) compared to 2023[61]. - Net profit for 2024 increased to RMB 32.16 billion, up RMB 7.60 billion (or 30.9%) from RMB 24.57 billion in 2023[63]. - The net cash inflow from operating activities was RMB 36.46 billion, a year-on-year increase of RMB 15.92 billion (or 77.5%) in 2024[64]. Dividends and Shareholder Returns - The company plans to distribute a final dividend of RMB 0.332 per share, including an interim dividend of RMB 0.54 per share[15]. - The company distributed an interim dividend of CNY 0.208 per share and proposed a final dividend of CNY 0.332 per share to shareholders[21]. - The company plans to distribute a total dividend of CNY 0.54 per share for the year 2024, with an interim dividend of CNY 0.208 per share already distributed[79]. - The company plans to distribute a final dividend of CNY 0.332 per share for the year ending December 31, 2024, totaling approximately CNY 73.85 billion[131]. Market Position and Growth - The company aims to enhance its market position and continue to innovate in insurance services, contributing to the modernization of China's financial sector[20]. - The company achieved a total original insurance premium income of CNY 538.06 billion in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 4.3% and maintaining a market share of 31.8% in the property insurance sector[21][26]. - The company aims to enhance its international market position while consolidating its domestic market leadership, focusing on technological insurance development and green insurance initiatives[24]. - The company processed over 180 million claims throughout the year, demonstrating its commitment to disaster relief and claims service[23]. - The company expanded its market presence by establishing the first comprehensive catastrophe insurance in Hebei and creating a "carbon-neutral" insurance outlet in Xiamen[22]. - The company is considering strategic acquisitions to enhance its service offerings, with potential targets identified in the insurance sector[89]. Innovation and Product Development - The company launched several innovative insurance products, including the "PICC China Earthquake Catastrophe Model" and "Cybersecurity Insurance Risk Pricing Model," enhancing its service offerings[23]. - The company aims to enhance its core competitiveness by innovating business models, particularly in the new energy vehicle insurance sector[83]. - The company will continue to leverage technology, including big data and artificial intelligence, to drive innovation in its business models[83]. - New product launches are expected to contribute an additional 5 billion RMB in revenue over the next fiscal year[92]. Risk Management and Compliance - The company is committed to enhancing risk management capabilities in response to increasing external complexities and climate change risks, focusing on early identification and proactive measures[123]. - The company will focus on risk prevention and management, establishing a comprehensive risk management system to enhance governance and compliance[84]. - The company emphasizes compliance with laws and regulations, maintaining a good overall compliance status in its management activities for 2024[128]. - The company is committed to upholding the principles of diligence and integrity in its operations, as stated by the supervisory board[199]. - In 2024, the company will strengthen internal controls and risk management capabilities as per the Insurance Law of the People's Republic of China[200]. Investment Strategy - The company continues to optimize its investment asset portfolio while adhering to a long-term and stable investment philosophy[54]. - The company intends to invest in high-dividend stocks while maintaining a cautious approach to credit quality and non-standard financial products[84]. - The company has a maximum annual limit of RMB 8,500 million for purchasing debt investment products involving related parties, with actual purchases totaling RMB 3,780 million this year[168]. - The company has a maximum annual limit of RMB 8,500 million for purchasing equity investment products involving related parties, with actual purchases totaling RMB 7,350 million this year[168]. Corporate Governance - The company maintained a strong commitment to corporate governance, with all board members rated as "competent" in their annual performance evaluations[199]. - The supervisory board emphasized the importance of compliance and risk management, regularly reviewing reports from various departments[197]. - The company is committed to enhancing corporate governance in accordance with relevant laws and regulations, including the Company Law and Listing Rules[200]. - The audit committee reviewed the audited performance of the company and its subsidiaries for the year[188]. Social Responsibility and Sustainability - The company is committed to developing green insurance products and promoting ESG practices to support comprehensive green transformation in the economy[82]. - The company has implemented measures to reduce resource consumption, including promoting paperless operations and energy-saving initiatives[127]. - The company has not faced any administrative penalties related to environmental issues in 2024[126]. - The company and its subsidiaries made charitable donations totaling 47 million yuan, with 27 million yuan allocated for public welfare donations[140].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for PICC P&C, indicating a potential return of over 15% over the next 12 months [16]. Core Insights - The full-year combined ratio (CoR) for FY24 was reported at 98.8%, which is a 1.0 percentage point increase year-on-year, primarily due to a rise in the loss ratio [1][8]. - The management provided an optimistic guidance for FY25, expecting the auto and non-auto CoR to be less than 96% and 99% respectively, which is an improvement compared to previous years [1][8]. - The net profit for FY24 is projected to be RMB 32.2 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 30.9%, aligning with forecasts [1][2]. - The report revises the EPS forecasts for FY25-27 upwards by 6%, 11%, and 18% to RMB 1.58, 1.74, and 1.93 respectively, driven by improved CoR composition [1][9]. Financial Performance - Total insurance revenue for FY24 is expected to reach RMB 485.2 billion, marking a 6.1% year-on-year increase, with auto and non-auto insurance service revenue rising by 4.5% and 8.8% respectively [8]. - The underwriting profit is anticipated to drop by 44% year-on-year to RMB 5.7 billion, with a significant loss recorded in Q4 [1][8]. - The dividend per share (DPS) for FY24 is set at RMB 0.54, a 10.4% increase year-on-year, indicating a payout ratio of 37.3% [1][2]. Valuation Metrics - The target price for PICC P&C has been revised to HK$15.80 from the previous HK$14.00, representing a 9.9% upside from the current price of HK$14.38 [3][10]. - The stock is currently trading at a price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.09x for FY25E, with an average 3-year forward return on equity (ROE) estimated at 13.5% [10][12]. - The report highlights a dividend yield of 4.7% for FY25, increasing to 5.7% by FY27 [2][13].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][7][19] Core Views - The company achieved a net profit of 32.16 billion RMB in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 30.9%, benefiting from a recovery in the capital market [5][8] - The return on equity (ROE) improved by 2.2 percentage points to 13.0% [5] - The company’s total investment yield reached 5.5%, up by 2.0 percentage points year-on-year [6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company reported a total insurance premium income of 538.06 billion RMB in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 4.3% [6] - The comprehensive cost ratio (COR) increased by 1.0 percentage point to 98.8%, with a claims ratio of 73.0%, slightly higher than expected due to major disasters [6][9] - The underwriting profit decreased by 43.9% to 5.71 billion RMB [6] Investment Analysis - The company has significantly increased its allocation to government bonds and stocks, with a 10.4 percentage point increase in government bonds to 18.2% and a 1.2 percentage point increase in stocks to 7.2% [6] - The projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 34.95 billion RMB, 38.99 billion RMB, and 44.29 billion RMB respectively, reflecting a positive growth outlook [7][8] Market Position - The company is positioned as a high-dividend core stock within the insurance sector, maintaining a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 1.06x as of March 28 [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company demonstrated robust underwriting in auto insurance, with total premium income reaching 538.06 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.3% [4] - The net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 30.9% year-on-year to 32.17 billion yuan, driven by improved investment performance [8] - The combined ratio (COR) stood at 98.8%, reflecting a 1.0 percentage point increase year-on-year, primarily due to natural disaster impacts [6][7] Summary by Sections Insurance Service Revenue - The company achieved insurance service revenue of 485.22 billion yuan, up 6.1% year-on-year, with a quarterly growth trend showing improvement [5] - Auto insurance service revenue was 294.70 billion yuan, a 4.5% increase, with a market share in the new car segment rising to 38.8% [5] - Non-auto insurance service revenue reached 190.52 billion yuan, growing by 8.8%, with significant contributions from various segments including agricultural insurance and liability insurance [6] Profitability and Cost Management - The underwriting profit decreased by 43.9% year-on-year to 5.71 billion yuan, influenced by an increase in the combined loss ratio to 73.0% due to natural disasters [6][7] - The company implemented cost control measures, resulting in a decrease in the expense ratio for auto insurance to 24.2% [7] Investment Performance - Total investment income rose to 34.94 billion yuan, a substantial increase of 67.9% year-on-year, benefiting from a recovery in equity markets [8] - The total investment return rate was 5.5%, reflecting a 2.0 percentage point increase year-on-year [4][8] Future Outlook - The company is expected to maintain its leading position in the property insurance sector with a market share of 31.8% [8] - Profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been adjusted to 37.4 billion yuan and 43.3 billion yuan respectively, with a new forecast for 2027 set at 50.4 billion yuan [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of HK$16.59, corresponding to a PB of 1.2 times for 2025 [6]. Core Views - In 2024, the company achieved a net profit of CNY 32.161 billion, a year-on-year increase of 30.9%, while the underwriting profit decreased by 43.9% to CNY 5.713 billion. The comprehensive cost ratio (COR) rose to 98.8%, an increase of 1.0 percentage points year-on-year [1][3]. - The company’s investment income significantly increased by 67.9% year-on-year to CNY 34.937 billion, primarily due to the strategic allocation of secondary equity assets during market lows [5]. Summary by Sections Performance Overview - In 2024, the company reported a net profit of CNY 32.161 billion, up 30.9% year-on-year, with an underwriting profit of CNY 5.713 billion, down 43.9%. The COR was 98.8%, up 1.0 percentage points, and ROE was 13.0%, up 2.2 percentage points. The proposed final dividend per share is CNY 0.332, leading to a total annual dividend of CNY 0.54, an increase of 10.4% year-on-year [1]. Liability Side - The insurance service revenue for 2024 was CNY 485.223 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6.1%, with a market share of 31.8%, down 0.7 percentage points. The revenue from auto insurance was CNY 294.701 billion, up 4.5%, while non-auto insurance revenue was CNY 190.522 billion, up 8.8% [2][3]. Profitability - The COR increased by 1.0 percentage points to 98.8% in 2024, driven by a rise in the loss ratio, which increased by 2.4 percentage points to 73%. The increase in loss ratio was attributed to severe disaster impacts and rising liability costs due to declining interest rates. The company implemented cost reduction measures, reducing the expense ratio by 1.4 percentage points to 25.8% [3][4]. Investment Side - By the end of 2024, the total investment scale reached CNY 676.512 billion, a 12.6% increase from the previous year, with a total investment return rate of 5.5%, up 2 percentage points year-on-year [5]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company aims for steady growth, with projected net profit growth rates of 29.9%, 16.4%, and 20.5% for 2025-2027. The BPS is expected to be CNY 12.57, CNY 14.06, and CNY 15.82 for the respective years, with corresponding PB ratios of 1.04, 0.93, and 0.83 [6][13].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the increase in investment income has driven net profit growth, with stable dividend returns [1] - The company is expected to maintain a leading underwriting profitability in the long term despite short-term fluctuations caused by catastrophic losses [3] - The report projects a slight upward adjustment in profit forecasts for 2024, with net profit estimates for 2025-2027 at 352 billion, 379 billion, and 419 billion respectively [4] Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is reported at 478.826 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 7.02%, and projected to reach 519.57 billion in 2024 [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023 is 24.585 billion, reflecting a decrease of 15.70%, but is expected to rebound to 32.173 billion in 2024, a growth of 30.86% [1] - The book value per share (BVPS) is projected to increase from 10.40 in 2023 to 11.60 in 2024 [1] Cost and Profitability Metrics - The comprehensive cost ratio stands at 98.8%, an increase of 1.0 percentage points year-on-year, with underwriting profit reported at 5.7 billion, down 44% year-on-year [3] - The loss ratio has increased to 73.0%, up 2.4 percentage points, with significant impacts from natural disasters [3] - The expense ratio has decreased to 25.8%, primarily due to cost reduction initiatives [3] Investment Strategy - The company has increased its allocation to bonds and equity investments, with total investment assets rising by 12.6% to 676.5 billion [4] - The total investment return rate is reported at 5.5%, an increase of 2.0 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to strategic investments during market lows [4] Dividend Policy - The company plans to distribute a dividend of 0.54 per share for 2024, representing a 10% increase year-on-year, with a dividend payout ratio of 37% [10]

Core Points - The company reported a stable growth in operating performance for the year, achieving a revenue of 709.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.4%, and a net profit of 42.9 billion yuan, up 88.2% from the previous year [2] - The company aims to build a world-class insurance financial group by focusing on five key areas: excellent functionality, efficient operations, clear core business, modern governance, and international competitiveness [3] - In 2025, the company will implement its strategy by focusing on six reforms and four solid actions to enhance innovation and management efficiency [4][5] Financial Performance - The company achieved a return on equity (ROE) of 16.7%, an increase of 7.1 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The company handled nearly 500,000 claims daily, with a payout of 1.23 billion yuan [2] Strategic Development - The company emphasizes the importance of serving the public and contributing to social governance and economic development [3] - The strategic focus includes enhancing risk management, improving service quality, and optimizing product offerings [6][7] Reform Initiatives - The company plans to deepen governance reforms, enhance strategic management, and improve resource allocation to respond effectively to market competition [5] - The company will also focus on digital transformation and talent development to create a conducive working environment [5][6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][11] Core Insights - The company achieved a net profit of 32.17 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 30.9%, aligning with expectations. The underwriting profit was 5.71 billion yuan, down 43.9% year-on-year, while total investment income reached 34.94 billion yuan, up 67.9% year-on-year. The comprehensive cost ratio (COR) increased by 1.0 percentage points to 98.8% due to frequent natural disasters [4][5] - The company is a leader in the property and casualty insurance industry, with a competitive advantage in the market. The total dividend per share for the year was 0.54 yuan, an increase of 10.2% year-on-year, with a dividend payout ratio of 37.3% [4][6] - The company has adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2025-2026 to 34.91 billion yuan and 38.24 billion yuan, respectively, while introducing a new forecast for 2027 at 41.76 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 8.5%, 9.5%, and 9.2% [4][7] Financial Summary and Valuation Metrics - Total premium income for 2024 was 538.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.3%, with service income at 485.2 billion yuan, up 6.1%. The breakdown includes 294.7 billion yuan from auto insurance and 190.5 billion yuan from non-auto insurance, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 4.5% and 8.8% [5][7] - The company's total investment income for 2024 was 34.9 billion yuan, with an annualized total investment return rate of 5.5%, up 2.0 percentage points year-on-year. Investment assets increased by 12.6% to 676.5 billion yuan [6][7] - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.6 yuan, 1.7 yuan, and 1.9 yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 8.5, 7.8, and 7.1 [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of HKD 15.50 [8][9]. Core Views - The company's 2024 EPS is projected to be RMB 1.45, representing a 31% year-on-year increase, driven mainly by improved equity investments [1]. - The overall combined ratio (COR) for the company is expected to be 98.8%, reflecting a 1 percentage point increase year-on-year, primarily due to natural disaster impacts [1]. - The company is anticipated to maintain steady growth in its business, particularly in the auto insurance sector, which is expected to grow at a rate of 4.5% in 2024 [2]. Summary by Sections Auto Insurance Performance - The auto insurance COR for 2024 is projected at 96.8%, remaining stable compared to 96.9% in 2023. The loss ratio has increased by 2.2 percentage points to 72.6%, offset by a decrease in expense ratio [2]. - The auto insurance business revenue is expected to grow by 4.5% year-on-year, indicating a stable market outlook [2]. Non-Auto Insurance Performance - The non-auto insurance COR is estimated to rise by 2.8 percentage points to 101.9% in 2024, indicating underwriting losses. The loss ratio has increased by 2.7 percentage points, while the expense ratio remains stable [3]. - Revenue from property insurance is expected to grow by 4.7%, with a COR of 113.4%. Agricultural insurance revenue is projected to increase by 4.9%, with a COR of 99.7% [3]. Capital Returns - The return on equity (ROE) for the company is expected to rise by 2 percentage points to 13.1% in 2024, supported by favorable investment conditions. The total investment return rate is projected to increase to 5.5% [4]. - The company plans to distribute a dividend of RMB 0.54 per share for 2024, up from RMB 0.49 in 2023, with a payout ratio of 37% [4]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The EPS forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 have been raised to RMB 1.62, RMB 1.69, and RMB 1.82 respectively, reflecting adjustments of 12.7% and 8.0% for the first two years [5]. - The target price based on DCF valuation has been increased to HKD 15.50 from HKD 13.60, maintaining the "Buy" rating [5].