Core Viewpoint - China Pacific Insurance (02328) maintains an "outperform" rating, with a target price increase of 17.6% to HKD 14.7, reflecting a positive outlook for 2025 despite challenges in 2024 due to natural disaster losses [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In 2024, the company's premium income increased by 4.3% year-on-year to CNY 538.1 billion, while market share decreased by 0.7 percentage points to 31.8% [2] - Net profit rose by 30.9% to CNY 32.2 billion, aligning with expectations, driven by improved stock market conditions [3] - Total investment assets grew by 4.3% year-on-year, with total investment return increasing by 2.0 percentage points to 5.5% [3] Group 2: Underwriting and Cost Ratios - The combined ratio (CoR) for 2024 increased by 1.0 percentage point to 98.8%, primarily due to higher-than-expected natural disaster losses [2] - The combined loss ratio rose by 2.4 percentage points to 73%, with the net loss from major disasters exceeding the average of the past five years by 50.9% [2] - The CoR for auto insurance improved by 0.1 percentage point to 96.8%, while the non-auto insurance CoR decreased by 2.8 percentage points to 101.9% [2] Group 3: Dividend and Long-term Outlook - The annual dividend per share increased by 10.4% to CNY 0.54, slightly below expectations, but the long-term operational trend supports strong future dividend capacity [4] - The company is viewed as a long-term stable investment option, considering dividend growth and net asset increases [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a record net profit attributable to shareholders of 32.16 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 30.9% driven by significant investment income growth and business structure optimization [1] - The company's market share in the insurance sector remains strong at 31.8%, with premium income from original insurance reaching 538.06 billion yuan, a stable growth of 4.3% year-on-year [1] - The company is focusing on enhancing its risk models and expanding into the emerging home and self-car insurance sectors, with premium income from car insurance reaching 294.70 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.5% [2] - The non-auto insurance segment has shown impressive growth, with premium income rising to 190.52 billion yuan, an increase of 8.8% year-on-year, contributing to 39.3% of total premium income [3] - The company has optimized its asset allocation, achieving an investment return of 15.12 billion yuan, a remarkable increase of 270.8% year-on-year, with a total investment return rate of 5.5% [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company is projected to generate total revenue of 513.68 billion yuan, reflecting an 8.53% increase from 2023 [5] - The diluted earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are forecasted to be 1.55, 1.67, and 1.77 yuan respectively, with corresponding price-to-book ratios (P/B) of 1.15, 1.10, and 1.06 [4][5] Business Segments - The car insurance business has improved its market share to 38.8%, with a combined ratio (COR) of 96.8%, which is better than the industry average [2] - The non-auto insurance business has seen a significant increase in premium income, particularly in personal non-auto insurance, which grew by 18% year-on-year [3] Investment Strategy - The company is capitalizing on market opportunities by increasing its allocation to long-term bonds and high-dividend stocks, with a notable increase in government bond investment share by 9.9 percentage points year-on-year [3] - The company’s investment strategy has led to a robust investment income performance, significantly outperforming the CSI 800 index by 27.9% over the past three years [3]

Group 1: Financial Performance - The company reported original insurance premium income of RMB 538.055 billion, a year-on-year increase of 4.3% [1] - Underwriting profit decreased to RMB 5.713 billion, down 43.9% year-on-year [1] - Net profit increased to RMB 32.161 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 30.9% [1] - Basic earnings per share were RMB 1.446, with a proposed final dividend of RMB 0.332 per share [1] Group 2: Strategic Initiatives - The company actively engaged in major national strategies and provided quality insurance services, covering insurance liabilities amounting to RMB 298.8 trillion [2] - Established various insurance initiatives, including the China Integrated Circuit Co-insurance Body and the Green Ship Insurance Community [2] - Launched the first comprehensive catastrophe insurance in Hebei and developed high-level insurance centers in Shanghai [2] Group 3: Social Responsibility and Innovation - The company participated in social security system construction, serving 840 million people through social insurance services [3] - Agricultural insurance provided risk coverage for 55.42 million farming households, amounting to RMB 2.1 trillion [3] - The company introduced innovative insurance products and enhanced digital transformation, including AI platform applications [3]

Financial Performance - The company's original insurance premium income for 2024 reached RMB 538.06 billion, representing a 4.3% increase from RMB 515.81 billion in 2023[9]. - Insurance service revenue increased by 6.1% to RMB 485.22 billion in 2024, up from RMB 457.20 billion in 2023[9]. - Underwriting profit decreased by 43.9% to RMB 57.13 billion in 2024, compared to RMB 101.89 billion in 2023[9]. - Net profit for 2024 was RMB 32.16 billion, reflecting a 30.9% increase from RMB 24.57 billion in 2023[9]. - The comprehensive cost ratio stood at 98.8%, with underwriting profit of CNY 5.713 billion and net profit of CNY 32.161 billion, resulting in a return on equity of 13.0%[21]. - The company reported a net profit of CNY 32.16 billion, marking a historical high, with a return on equity of 13.0%, up by 2.2 percentage points year-on-year[27]. - The company's pre-tax profit for 2024 was RMB 38.02 billion, a year-on-year increase of RMB 9.98 billion (or 35.6%)[61]. - Net profit rose to RMB 32.16 billion, up RMB 7.60 billion (or 30.9%) from RMB 24.57 billion in 2023, with basic earnings per share of RMB 1.446[63]. Assets and Liabilities - The company's total assets as of December 31, 2024, were RMB 778.24 billion, a 10.6% increase from RMB 703.62 billion in 2023[11]. - Total liabilities increased by 10.3% to RMB 517.62 billion in 2024, up from RMB 469.32 billion in 2023[11]. - The company's total investment assets amounted to RMB 676.51 billion, a 12.6% increase from the previous year[51]. - The company's cash and cash equivalents (excluding accrued interest) stood at RMB 19.36 billion as of December 31, 2024[66]. - The debt-to-asset ratio decreased to 63.9%, down 1.6 percentage points from 65.5% at the beginning of the year[67]. Dividends - The company proposed a final dividend of RMB 0.332 per share, with a total dividend payout including interim dividends amounting to RMB 0.54 per share[15]. - The company distributed an interim dividend of CNY 0.208 per share and proposed a final dividend of CNY 0.332 per share[21]. - The company plans to distribute a total dividend of RMB 0.54 per share for the fiscal year 2024, pending shareholder approval[79]. - The company plans to distribute a final dividend of HKD 0.332 per share for the year ending December 31, 2024, totaling approximately HKD 73.85 billion[131]. - The interim dividend of HKD 0.208 per share for the six months ending June 30, 2024, was approved by shareholders on October 29, 2024, amounting to about HKD 46.26 billion[131]. Market Presence and Share - The company achieved a market share of 31.8% in the insurance sector[15]. - The company achieved original insurance premium income of CNY 538.06 billion, a year-on-year increase of 4.3%, maintaining a market share of 31.8% in China's property insurance market[26]. - The total premium income from the agency sales channel was RMB 325,754 million, accounting for 60.5% of total premiums, with a 1.3% increase from 2023[34]. - The top ten regions contributed a total premium income of RMB 538,055 million, reflecting a 4.3% growth compared to RMB 515,807 million in 2023[35]. Claims and Insurance Services - The company processed over 180 million claims during the year, demonstrating its commitment to disaster response and customer service[23]. - Agricultural insurance provided risk protection for 55.42 million farming households, amounting to CNY 2.1 trillion in coverage[23]. - The company expanded its market presence by launching specialized products for small and micro enterprises, providing risk protection of CNY 45 billion to 97,000 businesses[29]. - The company processed over 180 million claims, a year-on-year increase of 32.0%[31]. - The company achieved an insurance service revenue of RMB 371.12 billion in liability insurance, representing a year-on-year growth of 12.8%[43]. Investment Performance - The total investment income for 2024 was RMB 34.94 billion, with an investment return rate of 5.5%[15]. - Total investment income reached RMB 349.37 billion, an increase of RMB 141.30 billion year-on-year, with a total investment return rate of 5.5%, up 2.0 percentage points[50]. - Fixed income investments reached RMB 407.03 billion, up RMB 57.28 billion (or 16.4%) from the beginning of the year, accounting for 60.2% of total investments[56]. - Equity investments totaled RMB 170.03 billion, an increase of RMB 11.61 billion (or 7.3%), with a decrease in proportion to 25.1%[56]. Risk Management and Compliance - The company has a strong focus on compliance and risk management, with a dedicated Chief Risk Officer overseeing these areas[115]. - The company is committed to strengthening internal controls and risk management in accordance with relevant laws and regulations[200]. - The company plans to enhance risk management through early identification and proactive measures, focusing on training and cultural development[123]. - The company maintains a good compliance status with no significant systemic compliance risks reported in 2024[128]. Innovation and Product Development - The company launched several innovative insurance products, including the "PICC China Earthquake Catastrophe Model" and "Cybersecurity Insurance Risk Pricing Model"[23]. - The company is committed to developing new products and technologies to meet market demands[111]. - The company is actively expanding its insurance coverage for high-tech and specialized enterprises, addressing diverse risk protection needs[45]. Corporate Governance - The supervisory board held 7 meetings this year, reviewing 53 proposals and reports, and focusing on risk management and financial oversight[193]. - The audit committee reviewed the audited performance of the company and its subsidiaries for the year[188]. - The supervisory board aims to enhance corporate governance capabilities and promote orderly reforms in 2025[199]. - The independent directors confirmed that the related party transactions were conducted under normal business terms and in the best interest of shareholders[184]. Employee Relations - The company paid a total of RMB 40.184 billion in employee compensation in 2024, which includes fixed salaries and performance bonuses[81]. - The company has a strong commitment to employee relations, which is considered a key factor for its success[129].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for China Pacific Insurance (02328.HK) is "Outperform the Market" [1][2][9]. Core Views - The rapid growth in electric vehicle sales has significantly boosted the demand for electric vehicle insurance, although challenges such as high premiums and underwriting losses persist due to changes in owner demographics, high repair barriers, and insufficient data [2][9]. - China Pacific Insurance is leveraging its market position to build a comprehensive risk protection system for electric vehicles, achieving notable advantages in data reserves, marketing models, product offerings, and claims services [2][9]. - The company expects that as the electric vehicle industry matures and renewal rates improve, the loss ratio will stabilize, positively impacting the overall combined ratio (COR) [2][9]. Summary by Sections Electric Vehicle Insurance Development Status - The number of electric vehicles in China has surged from 1.11 million in 2020 to 7.13 million by September 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 59% [3]. - China Pacific Insurance has seen a continuous growth in the number of electric vehicle policies, maintaining a growth rate of around 60% from 2020 to 2023, with a compound annual growth rate of premiums at 86.4% from 2021 to 2023, significantly outpacing the industry average [3]. Challenges in Electric Vehicle Insurance - The current claims ratio for electric vehicles is approximately 1.4 times that of traditional fuel vehicles, with occurrence rates about 2.5 times higher, leading to lower underwriting profitability [4][5]. - Factors contributing to high claims include a higher proportion of operational vehicles, a younger customer base with less driving experience, and high repair costs due to limited repair channels and expensive parts [5][6]. Competitive Advantages of China Pacific Insurance - The company has established a specialized team for electric vehicle pricing, utilizing extensive global data to enhance risk identification and pricing strategies [7]. - It has developed a comprehensive service network covering all urban and rural areas in China, ensuring robust post-sale support [7]. - The claims process is optimized through a dedicated team of electric vehicle claims experts and partnerships with over 660 repair facilities [7]. Future Outlook - As the electric vehicle market matures, the loss ratio and claims are expected to improve, aided by increased customer conversion and renewal rates, which will enhance data accumulation for better risk modeling and pricing [8][9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Pacific Insurance (02328.HK) [1] Core Views - The report emphasizes the need for a developmental mindset to address the challenges of transforming and upgrading the new energy vehicle insurance sector [3] - It highlights the increasing penetration of new energy vehicles and the expected growth in insurance premiums, projecting that by 2025, the premium scale for new energy vehicle insurance will reach 194.7 billion, accounting for approximately 20.1% of total vehicle insurance premiums [2][3] - The report outlines the company's proactive approach in implementing green insurance innovations and developing a comprehensive risk management model that covers the entire lifecycle of vehicles [3] Summary by Relevant Sections Earnings Forecast and Valuation - Insurance service revenue is projected to grow from 424.4 billion in 2022 to 569.8 billion by 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 7.5% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 29.2 billion in 2022 to 34.5 billion by 2026, reflecting a recovery after a decline in 2023 [1] - The return on equity (ROE) is forecasted to stabilize around 12% in the coming years [1] New Energy Vehicle Insurance Insights - The report identifies that the claims ratio for new energy vehicle insurance is significantly higher, approximately 2.5 times that of traditional fuel vehicles, due to factors such as high operational vehicle ratios and a younger customer demographic [2][3] - It notes that the company has achieved underwriting profitability for new energy household commercial insurance as of January to October 2024, indicating a positive trend in the sector [3] Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on new products, technologies, and business models to better meet the needs of vehicle owners and adapt to industry trends [3] - The report discusses the company's commitment to enhancing its capabilities in pricing, operations, innovation, and risk management to support the growth of new energy vehicle insurance [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Accumulate" for China Pacific Insurance (2328) [1]. Core Views - The company is actively exploring high-quality development paths for new energy vehicle insurance, leveraging advantages in pricing, channels, and claims to continuously optimize the comprehensive cost ratio, achieving better underwriting profitability than the industry average [3][4]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - China Pacific Insurance held a 2024 Capital Market Open Day on November 8, showcasing its exploration and practices in the high-quality development of new energy vehicle insurance [4]. Investment Recommendations - The company is committed to providing comprehensive risk protection for new energy vehicles, benefiting from its strengths in pricing, channels, claims, risk reduction, and integration, which positively impacts its underwriting profitability [4]. - The projected EPS for 2024-2026 is set at 1.56, 1.63, and 1.70 RMB, with a target price of 15.84 HKD per share, corresponding to a P/B of 1.4 times for 2024 [4]. Market Performance - Since 2020, the retail sales of new energy vehicles in China have grown at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 59%, with the penetration rate of new energy passenger vehicles reaching 45.79% in the first nine months of 2024 [4]. - The company has effectively implemented the new national policy focusing on commercial insurance for new energy vehicles, enhancing the quality and scope of underwriting and improving profitability levels [4]. Strategic Initiatives - The company has established a group-level strategic project team focusing on new energy vehicle insurance, with a development strategy that includes pricing, channels, claims, risk reduction, and ecological integration [4]. - The company’s market share in new energy vehicle commercial insurance reached 34.45% in the first nine months of 2024, an increase of 1.49 basis points year-on-year, with a comprehensive cost ratio better than the industry average [4]. Financial Projections - The insurance revenue for 2024 is projected at 484,097 million RMB, reflecting a growth of 6% from 2023 [7]. - The net profit for 2024 is expected to be 34,653 million RMB, representing a significant increase of 41% compared to 2023 [7].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The company held its 2024 Investor Open Day on November 8, 2024, focusing on "High-Quality Development of New Energy Vehicle Insurance" and introduced innovative measures in auto insurance management and achievements in new energy vehicle insurance [2][6] - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles continues to rise, making new energy vehicle insurance a key focus for future auto insurance reforms [6] - The company is committed to advancing the transformation and upgrading of new energy vehicle insurance, with expectations for improvement in the combined operating ratio (COR) for new energy vehicle insurance [7][8] Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company is classified under the non-bank financial/insurance sector [4] - Current stock price is HKD 12.52, with a total market capitalization of HKD 86,379.16 million [4] Financial Performance - From 2020 to 2023, the sales of new energy passenger vehicles in China increased from 1.11 million to 7.75 million, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 91%, significantly higher than the overall growth of traditional passenger vehicles at 4% [6] - The number of new energy vehicles in circulation rose from 4.92 million to 20.41 million, with their share of total vehicle ownership increasing from 1.8% to 6.1% [6] - As of the first half of 2024, the share of new energy vehicles in total vehicle ownership reached 7.2% [6] Market Position - The company's market share in new energy commercial vehicle insurance reached 35.45% in the first nine months of 2024, an increase of 1.49 percentage points year-on-year [7] - The company has served over 22 million new energy vehicle customers [7] Future Outlook - The company aims to create a new business model that covers the entire lifecycle of vehicle insurance and all customer service scenarios, enhancing risk management and service capabilities [7] - The projected net profit for the company from 2024 to 2026 is expected to be HKD 33.87 billion, HKD 35.73 billion, and HKD 39.80 billion, with growth rates of 38%, 6%, and 11% respectively [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [6]. Core Views - The company's net profit for the first three quarters of 2024 reached 26.75 billion, a year-on-year increase of 38%, showing significant improvement compared to a decline of 8.7% in the first half of the year [4]. - The total investment income was 27.498 billion, an increase of 11.358 billion year-on-year, with an annualized total investment return rate of 4.4%, up by 1.7 percentage points [4]. - The insurance service revenue for the first three quarters was 364.306 billion, growing by 5.3% year-on-year, with a slight improvement from 5.1% in the first half [4]. - The comprehensive cost ratio for the first three quarters was 98.2%, up by 0.3 percentage points year-on-year, with the non-auto insurance cost ratio at 100.5%, indicating underwriting losses [5]. - The core solvency ratio stood at 201.6%, exceeding industry peers and regulatory requirements, providing a strong foundation for future dividend capabilities [5]. - The company is expected to benefit from improved asset-liability dynamics and valuation upside despite short-term pressures from natural disasters and market fluctuations [5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Net profit for Q1-Q3 2024: 26.75 billion, +38% YoY [4] - Total investment income: 27.498 billion, +11.358 billion YoY [4] - Insurance service revenue: 364.306 billion, +5.3% YoY [4] Cost and Solvency - Comprehensive cost ratio: 98.2%, +0.3 percentage points YoY [5] - Core solvency ratio: 201.6%, above industry standards [5] Market Outlook - Positive outlook on asset-liability improvements and valuation growth potential [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for China Pacific Insurance (2328.HK) [6][5] Core Views - The company has shown robust growth in total premium income, with non-auto insurance growth outpacing auto insurance. For the first three quarters, total premium income increased by 4.6% year-on-year, with auto insurance and non-auto insurance growing by 3.2% and 5.9%, respectively [2][10] - Investment income has significantly improved, with total investment income reaching 27.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 70.4%. The annualized total investment return rate is 4.4%, up by 1.7 percentage points year-on-year [5][6] - The company’s competitive advantage in property and casualty insurance is expected to strengthen, particularly in the auto insurance sector, where the company has a higher proportion of low-loss vehicles and controllable channel costs [5][6] Summary by Sections Market Performance - Total premium income for the first three quarters was 409.57 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.6%. Auto insurance premiums grew by 3.2%, while non-auto insurance premiums grew by 5.9% [2][10] - In Q3 alone, non-auto insurance premiums saw a significant increase of 11.8% year-on-year [2] Financial Performance - The company achieved a net profit of 26.8 billion yuan in the first three quarters, representing a year-on-year increase of 38.0%. The net profit for Q3 was 9.3 billion yuan, a remarkable growth of 59.7% year-on-year [6][5] - The comprehensive cost ratio for the first three quarters was 98.2%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points year-on-year, with auto insurance and non-auto insurance ratios at 96.8% and 100.5%, respectively [6][11] Investment Insights - The report highlights that the company’s current stock price corresponds to a 2024E price-to-book (PB) ratio of 0.98, indicating a low valuation. The estimated reasonable value range is between 13.71 and 14.95 HKD based on comparable company valuations [5][6]