业绩大幅增长，与宇树科技达成合作 2024 年长城汽车总营收为 2022.0 亿元，同比增长 16.7%；归母净利润为 126.9 亿元，同比增长 80.8%，业绩创新高。长城与宇树科技达成战略合作，代表长城 开始向具身智能方向拓展。维持目标价 18.0 港元，对应 25 年的 10.0 倍预测市盈 率，距离现价有 58%上涨空间，买入评级。 投资建议。维持目标价 18.0 港元，对应 25 年的 10.0 倍预测市盈率，距离现价有 58%上涨空间，买入评级。 风险提示：行业竞争加剧；价格不及预期 | (年结 31/12；RMB | 百万元) | FY2023A | FY2024A | FY2025E | FY2026E | FY2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 销售收入 | | 173,212 | 202,195 | 231,413 | 273,808 | 332,786 | | 增长率（%） | | 26% | 17% | 14% | 18% | 22% | | 净利润 | | 7,022 | 12,692 | 14,344 | 1 ...

报告摘要 24 年净利润大幅增长 80.8%。公司 2024 年总营收为 2022.0 亿元，同比增长 16.7%； 归母净利润为 126.9 亿元，同比增长 80.8%，业绩创新高。 业绩大幅增长，与宇树科技达成合作 2024 年长城汽车总营收为 2022.0 亿元，同比增长 16.7%；归母净利润为 126.9 亿元，同比增长 80.8%，业绩创新高。长城与宇树科技达成战略合作，代表长城 开始向具身智能方向拓展。维持目标价 18.0 港元，对应 25 年的 10.0 倍预测市盈 率，距离现价有 58%上涨空间，买入评级。 股价表现 % 一个月 三个月 十二个月 相对收益 2.81 -14.78 6.99 数据来源：彭博、港交所、公司 3 月销量同比下降 2.3%，环比增长 26%。3 月长城汽车总销量达 9.8 万台，同比 下降 2.3%，环比增长 26%。具体来看，哈弗品牌 3 月销量 5.3 万台，同比下降 2.5%；WEY 品牌销量 4675 台，同比增长 30.0%；长城皮卡销量 2.0 万台，同比 增长 16.2%；欧拉品牌销量 2776 台，同比下降 53.9%；坦克品牌销量 1.7 万台， ...

Financial Performance - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the year ended December 31, 2024, is RMB 12,692,204,172.58[5] - The undistributed profits of the parent company as of December 31, 2024, amount to RMB 43,272,339,677.50[5] - The proposed cash dividend is RMB 0.45 per share (tax included), subject to approval at the 2024 annual general meeting[5] - Total operating revenue for 2024 reached RMB 20,219,547.23 million, an increase of 16.73% compared to RMB 17,321,207.68 million in 2023[24] - Net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 was RMB 1,269,220.42 million, representing an 80.76% increase from RMB 702,155.97 million in 2023[24] - Operating profit for 2024 reached RMB 1,392,086.33 million, a 93.32% increase compared to RMB 720,096.66 million in 2023[25] - Basic earnings per share increased by 81.71% to RMB 1.49 from RMB 0.82 in 2023[28] - The company's net assets attributable to shareholders rose by 15.31% to RMB 7,898,782.41 million compared to RMB 6,850,061.44 million in 2023[25] - The weighted average return on equity increased to 17.20%, up by 6.59 percentage points from 10.61% in 2023[28] - The total revenue for 2024 reached RMB 202.20 billion, reflecting a growth from RMB 173.21 billion in 2023[113] Operating Activities - Net cash flow from operating activities for 2024 was RMB 2,778,262.63 million, up 56.49% from RMB 1,775,378.90 million in 2023[24] - The net cash flow from operating activities rose by 56.49% to RMB 27.78 billion, driven by increased cash receipts from sales[115][116] - The company reported a net cash flow from operating activities of RMB 13,584,191,238.31 in the fourth quarter[30] Research and Development - Research and development expenses for 2024 were RMB 928,436.73 million, reflecting a 15.27% increase from RMB 805,425.26 million in 2023[24] - The total R&D investment was ¥10.45 billion, representing 5.17% of total revenue, with 49.59% of this amount capitalized[138] - The company applied for over 28,000 patents, with 17,000 granted, covering key technologies in new energy and intelligent systems[140] - The number of R&D personnel was 23,308, constituting 27.45% of the total workforce, indicating a strong emphasis on technical expertise[139] Sales and Market Expansion - In 2024, the company achieved a total sales volume of 1.2345 million vehicles, representing a year-on-year growth of 0.37%, with total revenue reaching RMB 202.20 billion, an increase of 16.73%[40] - The company’s new energy vehicle sales reached 322,200 units in 2024, reflecting a significant year-on-year increase of 25.65%, with a domestic penetration rate of 43.99%[42] - The company’s overseas sales reached 454,100 units, a remarkable year-on-year growth of 44.61%, contributing to a cumulative overseas sales total exceeding 1.8 million vehicles[44] - The company aims to accelerate its internationalization strategy, targeting a second million sales milestone in overseas markets[185] - Great Wall Motors has expanded its sales network to over 1,400 overseas channels, covering more than 170 countries and regions[84] Technological Advancements - The company launched the new generation intelligent driving system Coffee Pilot Ultra and the Coffee OS 3, enhancing user experience through advanced technology[41] - The company is focusing on technological advancements and new product development to drive future growth[19] - The Coffee Pilot Ultra intelligent driving system was introduced, featuring 27 smart sensors and enhancing safety standards significantly[77] - Great Wall Motors established a comprehensive Hi4 hybrid technology system, launching three new hybrid architectures to meet diverse consumer needs[78] - The company is enhancing its technological capabilities with 5G and AI digital twin technology for comprehensive transformation[185] Corporate Governance and Compliance - The audit report issued by Deloitte Huayong CPA has a standard unqualified opinion[7] - The company emphasizes that the forward-looking statements in the report do not constitute a commitment to investors[6] - The company has confirmed that there are no non-operational fund occupations by controlling shareholders or related parties[8] - The company maintains a diversified product portfolio, including traditional and new energy vehicles, and continues to focus on technological innovation and global expansion strategies[68] Employee and Operational Efficiency - The total number of employees increased to 84,915 in 2024 from 82,439 in 2023, with employee costs accounting for 9.47% of total revenue, down from 10.60%[59] - The company is implementing a long-term incentive mechanism to transform employees from "workers" to "partners," promoting sustainable development[112] Financial Position - Total assets at the end of 2024 amounted to RMB 21,726,622.37 million, a 7.95% increase from RMB 20,127,028.86 million in 2023[25] - The total liabilities at the end of 2024 were RMB 13,826,999.49 million, a 4.15% increase from RMB 13,276,150.46 million in 2023[25] - Total liabilities as of December 31, 2024, amounted to RMB 138.27 billion, an increase from RMB 132.76 billion in 2023, while total equity rose to RMB 79.00 billion from RMB 68.51 billion, resulting in a debt-to-equity ratio decrease from 193.79% to 175.03%[54] Future Outlook - The company plans to focus on enhancing product quality and expanding in three key areas: smart new energy, advanced off-road vehicles, and high-quality international markets[180] - The forecast for the passenger car market in China for 2025 is projected to be 28.9 million units, a year-on-year increase of 4.9%[179] - The expected sales of new energy vehicles in 2025 is 16 million units, with a year-on-year growth of 24.4%[179]

Financial Performance - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the year 2024 is RMB 12,692,204,172.58[2] - The undistributed profits at the end of 2024 amount to RMB 43,272,339,677.50[2] - The proposed cash dividend is RMB 0.45 per share (including tax), subject to shareholder approval[2] - Total operating revenue for 2024 reached RMB 20,219,547.23 million, an increase of 16.73% compared to RMB 17,321,207.68 million in 2023[29] - Net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 was RMB 1,269,220.42 million, representing an 80.76% increase from RMB 702,155.97 million in 2023[29] - Operating profit for 2024 reached RMB 1,392,086.33 million, a 93.32% increase compared to RMB 720,096.66 million in 2023[30] - Basic earnings per share increased by 81.71% to RMB 1.49 from RMB 0.82 in 2023[33] - The company's net assets attributable to shareholders rose by 15.31% to RMB 7,898,782.41 million compared to RMB 6,850,061.44 million in 2023[30] - The weighted average return on equity increased to 17.20%, up by 6.59 percentage points from 10.61% in 2023[33] - The company achieved total revenue of RMB 202.20 billion for 2024, up from RMB 173.21 billion in 2023, reflecting a year-on-year growth of approximately 16.76%[67] Operational Highlights - The company has not identified any significant risks that could materially affect its operations during the reporting period[4] - The audit report issued by Deloitte shows a standard unqualified opinion[4] - The company has confirmed that there are no non-operational fund occupations by controlling shareholders or related parties[5] - The company reported a net cash flow from operating activities of RMB 13,584,191,238.31 in the fourth quarter[35] - The total liabilities at the end of 2024 were RMB 13,826,999.49 million, a 4.15% increase from RMB 13,276,150.46 million in 2023[30] - The company has not engaged in any significant asset acquisitions or disposals during the reporting period[60] Research and Development - Research and development expenses for 2024 amounted to RMB 928,436.73 million, a 15.27% increase from RMB 805,425.26 million in 2023[29] - The company’s R&D expenses increased by 15.27% to RMB 9.28 billion, reflecting its commitment to innovation and technology advancement[53] - The company applied for over 28,000 patents, with 17,000 granted, covering key technologies in new energy and intelligent systems[145] - The company has established R&D organizations in nine cities in China and set up branches in seven countries, focusing on localized R&D capabilities to support product development and market launch[107] Market Expansion and Sales - In 2024, the company achieved a total sales volume of 1.2345 million vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 0.37%, with total revenue reaching RMB 202.20 billion, up 16.73% from the previous year, and net profit of RMB 12.69 billion, an increase of 80.76%[45][53][54] - The company’s penetration rate of new energy vehicles in domestic passenger cars reached 43.99%, with total sales of new energy vehicles increasing by 25.65% to 322,200 units in 2024[47] - The company’s overseas sales reached 454,100 units in 2024, marking a year-on-year growth of 44.61%, with cumulative overseas sales exceeding 1.8 million units[49] - The company has expanded its sales network to over 1,400 overseas channels, covering more than 170 countries and regions[89] - The company plans to achieve overseas sales of over 1 million vehicles by 2030, focusing on differentiated layouts of new energy products based on local market characteristics[90] Technological Advancements - The company launched the new generation intelligent driving system Coffee Pilot Ultra and the new intelligent space system Coffee OS 3 in 2024, enhancing user experience through advanced technology[46] - The company introduced the Hi4-Z hybrid technology system, achieving a maximum system power of 715 kW and over 200 km pure electric range in off-road conditions[48] - The Coffee Pilot Ultra intelligent driving system was introduced, featuring 27 smart sensors and enhancing safety standards significantly[82] - Great Wall Motors is focusing on high-efficiency electric drive products and has signed a contract for the development of RISC-V automotive-grade chips to enhance vehicle intelligence[86] - The company is establishing full-stack self-research capabilities around smart driving, smart cockpit, and smart services to enhance user experience[190] Financial Health and Investments - The company’s total assets and liabilities will be closely monitored to ensure sustainable growth and financial health moving forward[24] - The company’s current assets increased to RMB 133.44 billion, while current liabilities rose to RMB 122.23 billion as of December 31, 2024[56] - Total liabilities as of December 31, 2024, amounted to RMB 138.27 billion, an increase from RMB 132.76 billion in 2023, while total equity rose to RMB 79.00 billion from RMB 68.51 billion, resulting in a debt-to-equity ratio decrease from 193.79% to 175.03%[59] - The company’s investment activities resulted in a net cash outflow of ¥23.30 billion, primarily due to increased purchases of financial products[147] Employee and Talent Management - The total number of employees increased to 84,915 as of December 31, 2024, compared to 82,439 in 2023, with employee costs accounting for 9.47% of total revenue, down from 10.60%[64] - The number of R&D personnel was 23,308, making up 27.45% of the total workforce, with a significant portion holding advanced degrees[144] - The company is focused on building a strong talent pipeline to support long-term growth and stability[117] Sustainability and Corporate Responsibility - The company is committed to high-quality development and innovation in smart new energy technologies, aiming for sustainable growth through a diversified product matrix[73] - The company is committed to promoting green supply chains and achieving carbon neutrality by reducing carbon emissions during production[190] - The company aims to maintain a long-term perspective, emphasizing quality management and sustainable development in its operations[185]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a **Buy** rating for Great Wall Motor (2333 HK) with a target price of HKD 17.36, representing a potential upside of **30.3%** from the current price of HKD 13.32 [1][6] Core Views - Great Wall Motor's 2024 full-year and Q4 performance was largely in line with expectations, driven by strong sales of the Tank brand and robust export performance [2] - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of RMB 12.4-13.0 billion in 2024, a year-on-year increase of **76.60%-85.14%**, with non-GAAP net profit rising **94.47%-106.88%** [6] - The Tank brand saw a **42.12%** year-on-year increase in sales, reaching 231,000 units, contributing significantly to the company's profitability [6] - Great Wall Motor's high-end and intelligent vehicle strategy is progressing smoothly, with the company dominating the Chinese off-road vehicle market and successfully expanding into the high-end segment [6] - The company's global expansion, including production bases and R&D centers in Russia, Thailand, India, and Brazil, supports its growth prospects [6] Financial Performance - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 137.34 billion in 2022 to RMB 261.44 billion in 2026, with a CAGR of **13.0%** [5] - Net profit is expected to increase from RMB 8.27 billion in 2022 to RMB 18.04 billion in 2026, with a CAGR of **18.9%** [5] - EPS is forecasted to rise from RMB 0.96 in 2022 to RMB 2.11 in 2026, with a CAGR of **18.9%** [5] - The company's gross margin is expected to improve from **19.4%** in 2022 to **20.5%** in 2026, driven by higher sales of premium models and improved product mix [14] Market and Industry Analysis - Great Wall Motor sold 1.23 million vehicles in 2024, including 321,800 new energy vehicles, a year-on-year increase of **22.82%** [6] - Overseas sales reached 453,100 units, up **43.39%** year-on-year, accounting for a significant portion of total sales [6] - Sales of vehicles priced above RMB 200,000 reached 309,600 units, a year-on-year increase of **37.13%**, representing **25.1%** of total sales [6] - The company plans to launch several new models and technology platforms in 2025, including the Tank 500 Hi4-Z, which was officially launched on January 1, 2025, and the Tank 400/700 Hi4-Z, which will feature enhanced power performance and pure electric range [6] Valuation and Target Price - The target price of HKD 17.36 is based on the company's strong performance in high-end and intelligent vehicle segments, as well as its global expansion strategy [6] - The potential upside of **30.3%** reflects the market's confidence in the company's growth prospects and its ability to maintain profitability through premium product offerings and export growth [1][6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Great Wall Motors with a target price raised to HKD 18.0, indicating a potential upside of 32% from the current price [4][6]. Core Insights - Great Wall Motors achieved a total sales volume of 1.233 million vehicles in 2024, remaining flat year-on-year, marking the ninth consecutive year of sales exceeding one million units [2][3]. - The company is focusing on high-quality market share growth, with a significant increase in December 2024 sales by 20.3% year-on-year, driven by strong performance from the Haval and WEY brands [2][3]. - The report highlights the company's strategic expansion into international markets, with overseas sales reaching 453,000 units in 2024, accounting for 37% of total sales, and an expected growth of 26% in export sales to 570,000 units by 2025 [3][4]. Sales Performance - In December 2024, Haval brand sales reached 83,000 units, up 27.2% year-on-year, while WEY brand sales surged by 150.8% to 8,808 units [2]. - The report notes a decline in sales for the Ora brand by 52.7%, while the Tank brand saw a 26.4% increase in sales [2]. Financial Projections - The report projects sales revenue growth of 26% for 2024, reaching RMB 219.01 billion, followed by an 18% growth in 2025 to RMB 259.42 billion [5][9]. - Net profit is expected to rebound significantly by 95% in 2024, reaching RMB 13.69 billion, and continue to grow to RMB 16.95 billion in 2025 [5][9]. - The report anticipates a steady gross margin of 21% from 2024 to 2026, with net profit margins improving to 7% by 2025 [5][9]. Product Development - Great Wall Motors plans to launch several new models in 2025, including the Haval H7 and new Tank models, which will feature the advanced Coffee Pilot Ultra driving system [3][4]. - The company aims to enhance its competitive edge in the high-end and off-road vehicle segments through accelerated deployment of intelligent driving technologies [3].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price raised to HKD 17.0, indicating a potential upside of 32% from the current price of HKD 12.9 [4][6]. Core Insights - The company's Q3 performance met expectations, with revenue for the first three quarters reaching RMB 142.25 billion, a year-on-year increase of 19%, and a net profit of RMB 8.37 billion, up 120% year-on-year [2][4]. - The report highlights the company's high-quality development strategy and gradual improvement in performance, which supports the positive outlook [4][6]. - The company achieved a record high in per vehicle revenue during Q3, with a gross margin of 20.8%, up 1.9 percentage points year-on-year, and per vehicle revenue of RMB 173,000, a 20% increase year-on-year [3][4]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue growth rates are projected at 26% for FY 2023, 26% for FY 2024, and 18% for FY 2025, with net profit expected to rebound significantly by 95% in FY 2024 [5][8]. - The gross margin is expected to stabilize at 21% from FY 2024 onwards, while the net profit margin is projected to improve to 6% in FY 2024 and 7% in FY 2025 [5][8]. - The report provides a detailed financial forecast, indicating a significant increase in sales revenue and net profit over the next few years, with net profit expected to reach RMB 20.42 billion by FY 2026 [5][8]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is expanding its international presence, with a target of 450,000 units in overseas sales for 2024 and plans to exceed one million units by 2030 [3][4]. - The introduction of the Hi4-Z platform is expected to strengthen the company's position in the off-road vehicle market, catering to various consumer needs [3][4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Great Wall Motors (2333 HK) with a target price raised to HKD 17.36, indicating a potential upside of 20.7% from the current closing price of HKD 14.38 [3][5]. Core Insights - The third quarter net profit of Great Wall Motors declined due to foreign exchange losses, but the overall revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 increased by 19.0% year-on-year to RMB 142.25 billion, with a significant rise in net profit by 108.8% to RMB 10.43 billion [1][2]. - The company has optimized its export structure, with overseas sales growing by 53.2% year-on-year, contributing to a 7.5% share of China's automotive exports, ranking fourth in the market [2][3]. - The report projects a 5.1% and 13% increase in earnings forecasts for 2024 and 2025, respectively, reflecting the positive impact of higher export sales [3][4]. Financial Summary - For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2024, the projected revenue is RMB 202.19 billion, representing a 16.7% year-on-year growth, while net profit is expected to reach RMB 12.41 billion, a 76.8% increase [4][10]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is estimated at RMB 1.45, with a projected price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 9.1 times [4][10]. - The company’s gross margin is expected to improve to 20.1% in 2024, with a net profit margin of 6.1% [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Great Wall Motors [1][2] Core Views - Great Wall Motors' Q3 2024 core earnings align with estimates, and overseas sales growth is expected to support profitability in FY25 [1] - The company plans to launch seven new models in FY25, which may positively impact sales in the Chinese market [1] - The report anticipates a 29% year-on-year increase in overseas sales, targeting 580,000 units in FY25 [1][2] - The net profit for Q3 2024 was RMB 3.4 billion, which was 5.7 billion lower than expected due to unexpected foreign exchange losses and delays in VAT refunds [1][2] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for FY25 have been raised from 1.3 million units to 1.36 million units, with a 3% growth expected in China due to new model launches [2] - The net profit forecast for FY25 has been increased by 7% to RMB 14 billion, while the FY24 net profit estimate has been reduced by 5% [2] - The target price has been adjusted from HKD 14.00 to HKD 17.00, reflecting improved market sentiment [2][4] Performance Metrics - Revenue (in million RMB) is projected to grow from 204,470 in FY24 to 236,000 in FY25, and further to 258,850 in FY26 [3][10] - Net profit is expected to increase from 12,768 in FY24 to 14,023 in FY25, and then to 13,887 in FY26 [3][10] - The gross margin is projected to be 20.0% in FY24, improving to 20.3% in FY25, before slightly declining to 19.7% in FY26 [8][10] Market Position - Great Wall Motors aims to enhance its overseas market presence through local assembly plants and expects stable profit margins in overseas markets despite increasing competition by FY26 [1][2] - The company is focusing on launching new models in the electric vehicle segment, which is seen as crucial for maintaining competitiveness in the evolving automotive landscape [1][2]

Investment Rating - Maintain BUY rating for Great Wall Motor with a target price raised from HK$14.00 to HK$17.00, indicating an upside potential of 18.2% from the current price of HK$14.38 [2][3]. Core Insights - Great Wall Motor's 3Q24 core earnings were in line with estimates, with revenue about 5% higher than previous forecasts, although net profit was impacted by unexpected foreign exchange losses and VAT refund delays [2]. - The company is expected to achieve overseas sales growth of 29% YoY in FY25E, supported by new models and increased local content [2]. - A decline in sales volume in China is anticipated for FY24E, but the introduction of seven new models in FY25E could revitalize sales [2]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 173,212 million in FY23A to RMB 204,470 million in FY24E, reflecting an 18.0% YoY growth [1]. - Net profit is expected to rebound significantly from RMB 7,021.6 million in FY23A to RMB 12,768.3 million in FY24E, marking an 81.8% increase [1]. - The company's gross margin is projected to stabilize around 20.0% in FY24E, with a slight narrowing expected in FY26E due to increased competition in overseas markets [2]. Earnings Revisions - FY25E net profit forecast has been revised up by 7% to RMB 14 billion, while FY24E net profit has been cut by 5% due to the earnings miss in 3Q24 [2][5]. - Sales volume forecast for FY25E has been increased from 1.3 million units to 1.36 million units, indicating a 3% growth in China [2]. Valuation Metrics - The P/E ratio is projected to decrease from 16.5x in FY23A to 9.1x in FY24E, reflecting improved earnings expectations [1][7]. - The dividend yield is expected to rise from 2.2% in FY23A to 3.9% in FY24E, indicating a more attractive return for investors [1][7].