Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Real Estate Market Trends**: The Japanese real estate market is experiencing supply contraction, demand improvement, rising costs due to inflation, and population concentration in core urban areas as key driving factors [1][4]. - **Chinese Real Estate Market Outlook**: The Chinese real estate market is expected to gradually stabilize, with conditions such as new home supply contraction and improved purchasing power. However, the recovery of income expectations and stabilization of housing prices in high-tier cities are critical [1][5]. The forecast for new home sales growth in 2026 is negative, with an investment decline of approximately 7% [1][5]. Company Insights: Beike - **Revenue Composition**: Beike's revenue is composed of approximately 60% from brokerage services and 40% from emerging businesses such as home decoration [1][6]. - **Market Position**: Beike holds a market share of 30%-50% in the existing housing market in first and second-tier cities, and over 20% in new home sales, indicating a leading position in the industry [1][6]. - **AI Integration**: The application of AI systems has enhanced the efficiency of real estate transactions, with the AI guest system covering 330,000 agents, achieving a penetration rate of 75% in Beijing and Shanghai [1][6][8]. Business Segments - **Home Decoration Business**: Beike's home decoration segment has achieved profitability since Q3, with stable profits of 8%-10% in first and second-tier cities. The company plans to increase prices by 10%-15% in 2026 and introduce high-quality soft decoration materials, potentially contributing over 8% to profits [1][7][8]. - **New Home Business Strategy**: Beike is strengthening collaborations with state-owned enterprises to enhance its new home business, which is expected to outperform the overall real estate market [1][3][10]. - **Rental Business Model**: The rental business primarily focuses on a "worry-free rental" model, utilizing a subleasing approach combined with home decoration services. This segment is expected to transition to a light asset operation model, aiming for a profit contribution of over 5% in the future [1][12][13]. Financial Projections - **Revenue Growth**: For 2025, the existing housing transaction growth is projected at around 7%, with total revenue growth of approximately 10%. Despite adjustments in the second half of the year, a total revenue growth of 7% is expected [1][14]. - **Profit Margin Expectations**: The operating profit margin is anticipated to improve significantly by 2026, with a target stock price of around 60 HKD, reflecting a positive long-term outlook despite potential short-term adjustments [1][14]. Additional Insights - **Emerging Business - Beijiaojia**: Launched in 2023, Beijiaojia is focused on providing product positioning solutions and marketing services, with plans to expand its light asset service model. It has already initiated projects in 10 cities, with significant projects expected to deliver results by 2026 [1][11]. - **Market Dynamics**: The real estate market is showing signs of structural differentiation, with opportunities in regions like Hong Kong and core urban areas of major cities expected to lead the recovery [1][5]. This summary encapsulates the essential insights from the conference call, highlighting the current state and future outlook of the real estate industry and Beike's strategic positioning within it.

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the real estate sector [2] Core Insights - The real estate index declined by 0.7%, ranking 26th among 31 primary industry sectors [8] - New home sales decreased by 35% year-on-year, while second-hand home sales fell by 23% [19][25] - The report highlights three key issues in the real estate market: declining new home demand, unresolved inventory, and the negative impact of land finance on the economy [32] Industry Basic Data - Total number of stocks: 107 [2] - Total market value: 12,921.51 billion [2] - Circulating market value: 12,389.50 billion [2] Sales Performance - In the 44th week, the average daily transaction area for new homes in 20 cities was 32.8 million square meters, with a total transaction area of 230 million square meters, reflecting a 6% increase week-on-week but a 35% decrease year-on-year [19][24] - For second-hand homes, the total transaction area in 11 cities was 197 million square meters, with a daily average of 28.2 million square meters, showing a 4% decrease week-on-week and a 23% decrease year-on-year [25][30] Policy News - Recent policies include adjustments to housing provident fund loan standards in Hainan, increasing the maximum repayment capacity ratio from 55% to 60% [14][17] - In Chongqing, a proposal was made to innovate the activation of existing land and promote collective operating construction land to market [14][17] Company Dynamics - Yuexiu Group acquired a low-density land plot in Chengdu at a price of 16,500 yuan per square meter with an 11.5% premium [18] - China Resources Land won a residential land plot in Dongguan for 1.91 billion yuan, with a saleable floor price of 21,606 yuan per square meter, approximately 17% lower than the previous record [18] - Poly Developments secured a commercial and residential land plot in Yanta District for a base price of 2.341 billion yuan, with a floor price of about 8,183 yuan per square meter [18] Investment Strategy - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong product moats that are likely to exhibit strong alpha characteristics, as well as high-quality commercial real estate companies with stable rental income [33]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Caitong Securities maintains a "Buy" rating for Beike-W (02423), projecting revenue growth from 103.3 billion yuan in 2025 to 130.6 billion yuan in 2027, driven by the company's leading position in the real estate brokerage market and expansion into diversified businesses like home decoration and furniture [1][2]. Group 1 - The company holds a solid leading position in the brokerage sector, with significant growth potential in the second-hand housing market [2]. - The company's second-hand housing transaction volume is expected to grow by 13.7% year-on-year to 1.1638 trillion yuan in the first half of 2025, contributing to a 4.0% increase in second-hand housing revenue to 13.6 billion yuan [2]. - The market share of the company's new housing business has been steadily increasing, reaching 12.6% as of June 30, 2025, with a prepaid commission model reducing accounts receivable risk [2]. Group 2 - The company is expanding its three wings of business, creating new growth opportunities, particularly in the home decoration sector, which is characterized by a vast market potential [2]. - The home decoration industry in China has historically lacked large-scale enterprises due to its non-standardized, low-frequency, and bulk nature, but the company aims to leverage its brokerage business's customer acquisition advantages and strong brand effect to address trust issues in the traditional home decoration market [2].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that the company, Beike-W (02423), is expected to benefit from the vast potential of China's second-hand housing market, maintaining a "buy" rating with projected revenues of 103.3 billion, 117.1 billion, and 130.6 billion yuan for 2025-2027 [1] - The company is anticipated to achieve Non-GAAP net profits of 7.4 billion, 8.8 billion, and 10.8 billion yuan for the same period, indicating profit elasticity due to diversification into home decoration and furniture businesses [1] - The company's leading position in the real estate brokerage sector is solid, with a significant growth potential in the second-hand housing business, which is expected to stabilize first in the current industry cycle [1] Group 2 - The company is expanding its three wings of business, particularly in the home decoration sector, which is seen as a second growth curve due to the vast market space in China [2] - The home decoration industry has historically lacked large-scale enterprises due to its non-standardized, low-frequency, and bulk nature, but the company aims to leverage its brokerage business to reduce customer acquisition costs and enhance brand effect [2] - The company's standardized capabilities and operational model are expected to effectively address trust issues in the traditional home decoration industry, positioning it well for future integration [2]

Core Insights - The company maintains a strong position in the brokerage sector, with significant growth potential in the second-hand housing market and a steady increase in market share for new housing [1] - The company's second-hand housing transaction volume increased by 13.7% year-on-year to 1,163.8 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, leading to a 4.0% rise in second-hand housing business revenue to 13.6 billion yuan [1] - The market share for new housing transactions reached 12.6% as of June 30, 2025, with a prepaid commission model reducing accounts receivable risk [1] Business Expansion - The company is exploring new growth opportunities through its "three wings" business strategy, particularly in the home decoration sector, which has significant market potential [1] - The home decoration industry has historically struggled to develop large-scale enterprises due to its non-standardized, low-frequency, and bulk nature [1] - The company leverages its extensive brokerage business to achieve low customer acquisition costs and strong brand effects, aiming to address trust issues in the traditional home decoration industry [1] Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for the company are projected at 103.3 billion yuan, 117.1 billion yuan, and 130.6 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [2] - Non-GAAP net profit estimates for the same period are 7.4 billion yuan, 8.8 billion yuan, and 10.8 billion yuan [2] - The company is expected to benefit from the broad market potential in the second-hand housing sector and its diversified business expansion, maintaining a "buy" rating [2]

Core Viewpoint - Beike-W (02423) announced a share buyback plan, investing $8 million to repurchase 1.4137 million shares at a price range of $5.6 to $5.7 per share [1] Summary by Category - **Company Actions** - The company will repurchase a total of 1.4137 million shares [1] - The buyback will cost the company $8 million [1] - The repurchase price per share is set between $5.6 and $5.7 [1]

Group 1 - The company, Beike-W (02423.HK), announced a share buyback plan to repurchase 1.4137 million shares at a cost of 8 million USD by October 31, 2025 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company Beike-W (02423) announced a share buyback plan, indicating confidence in its stock value and future prospects [1] Group 1 - The company will spend $8 million to repurchase 1.4137 million shares [1] - The buyback price per share is set between $5.6 and $5.7 [1]

FF305 第 1 頁 共 10 頁 v 1.3.0 | | | | FF305 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1,146,105 | % | USD | 6.0976 | | 1,129,902 | % | USD | 6.1952 | | 1,132,359 | % | USD | 6.1818 | | 1,110,219 | % | USD | 6.304 | | 1,096,452 | % | USD | 6.3821 | | 1,050,570 | % | USD | 6.663 | | 1,055,388 | % | USD | 6.6274 | | 4). | 購回股份(或其他證券)但沒有註銷 | | 1,110,219 | % | USD | 6.304 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 變動日期 | 2025年9月5日 | | | | | | 5). | 購回股份(或其他證券)但沒有註銷 | | 1,096,452 | % | USD | 6.3821 | | | 變動日期 | 2025年9月8日 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company is positioned as a leading integrated real estate transaction and service platform in China, with a strong focus on both new and second-hand housing transactions, rental services, and home decoration [12][13] - The company has a stable market position in the second-hand housing sector, with significant growth potential due to the recovery of transaction volumes and a stable commission rate [8][30] - The "One Body Three Wings" strategy aims to expand into home decoration and rental services, creating new growth avenues [8][72] - Revenue is projected to grow significantly, with expectations of Non-GAAP net profits increasing from 7.4 billion yuan in 2025 to 10.8 billion yuan in 2027 [85] Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - The company has over 20 years of experience in the real estate brokerage industry and is recognized as the first stock in China's residential service sector [12] - The company has a stable shareholding structure, with the founding team holding nearly 50% of voting rights [16][18] 2. Real Estate Brokerage Business - The second-hand housing transaction volume has shown a recovery, with a 30% year-on-year increase in 2023, reaching approximately 7.1 trillion yuan [30] - The company’s second-hand housing transaction volume increased by 13.7% to 1.1638 trillion yuan in the first half of 2025, contributing to a 4% rise in revenue to 13.6 billion yuan [46] - The new housing business has a market share of 12.6% as of June 30, 2025, with revenue growth of 29.9% year-on-year in the first half of 2025 [62] 3. Strategic Expansion - The company is expanding its home decoration business, which has significant market potential, with the home decoration industry expected to grow at a CAGR of 8.1% from 2025 to 2030 [72] - The rental business has seen rapid expansion, with over 590,000 units under management as of June 30, 2025, representing an 88% year-on-year increase [78] 4. Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 103.3 billion yuan, 117.1 billion yuan, and 130.6 billion yuan respectively, with Non-GAAP net profits expected to be 7.4 billion yuan, 8.8 billion yuan, and 10.8 billion yuan [85]