机构：华泰证券 研究员：樊俊豪/曾珺 圣贝拉是亚洲和中国最大的产后护理与修复品牌集团（24 年月子中心收入口径，沙利文），已在全球 30 个城市布局月子中心门店96 家（截至2025.6）。 市场担忧国内出生率下降会制约行业及公司主业的规模增长，对此我们认为当前女性悦己需求的崛起与 家庭结构的变化，与韩国/中国台湾产后护理行业早期背景具有相似性，有望通过渗透率提升对冲出生 人口下滑的影响。据沙利文，24 年我国境内月子中心渗透率仅6%，较中国台湾/韩国（均超60%）仍有 较大提升空间。此外，不同于传统的重资产投入模式，公司独创的轻资产标准化运营方式抗风险能力更 强，有望在行业周期波动中实现攻守兼备。 我们看好公司本土高端服务品牌的稀缺性、标准化运营复制能力以及年轻创始团队的锐气与专业沉淀。 立足当下，公司正处于同店稳定增长、门店快速扩张的势能成长期，规模效应有望撬动利润弹性，我们 预计25-27 年公司收入/经调整净利润CAGR 28%/94%。展望未来，公司主业全球范围内横向积极整合扩 张，纵向以"她经济"切入家庭护理和女性健康食品业态，拓展全周期家庭护理版图，有望释放多品牌与 平台能力的协同价值。 目标价 ...

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 今天是2025年8月5日星期二，农历六月十二。每一个夏日的清晨，方正研究向您提供及时新鲜的研究观 点，秉持"独立、客观、理性、真诚"的理念，珍重您的信任，保护您的投资。 以2025年8月8日为政策分界点，新发行国债、地方债、金融债利息收入恢复征收增值税，存量债券（含 同代码续发部分）维持原税率；法人机构适用6%标准税率，资管产品适用3%简易征收率；企业所得税 及资本利得税保持不变，形成"增量征税、存量免税、税率分层"的核心框架。 短期效应：免税老券稀缺性溢价急速释放 "晨观方正"将为大家带来： 免税存量债券吸引力提升，配置资金流入或推动其收益率下行，新发应税债券与存量免税债券利差或走 扩。国债、地方债因可原代码续发获得相对优势，金融债受新发规则影响面临定价调整压力。市场交易 行为呈现阶段性分化特征，套利交易主导市场结构，"多老券空新券"或成为主流策略。 【固收 | 李清荷】征收国债增值税如何影响债市 【海外宏观 | 燕翔】创新高后的美股后市展望 固收 | 李清荷 征收国债增值税如何影响债市 中长期重构：利率债性价比系统性衰减，资金再平衡 ...

证券研究报告 圣贝拉 (2508 HK) 高端服务新典范，全周期护理平台迈步全球 2025 年 8 月 05 日│中国香港 社会服务 首次覆盖圣贝拉并予以"买入"评级，目标价 9.76 港币，对应 27X 26E PE。 圣贝拉是亚洲和中国最大的产后护理与修复品牌集团（24 年月子中心收入 口径，沙利文），已在全球 30 个城市布局月子中心门店 96 家（截至 2025.6）。 我们看好公司本土高端服务品牌的稀缺性、标准化运营复制能力以及年轻创 始团队的锐气与专业沉淀。立足当下，公司正处于同店稳定增长、门店快速 扩张的势能成长期，规模效应有望撬动利润弹性，我们预计 25-27 年公司收 入/经调整净利润 CAGR 28%/94%。展望未来，公司主业全球范围内横向积 极整合扩张，纵向以"她经济"切入家庭护理和女性健康食品业态，拓展全 周期家庭护理版图，有望释放多品牌与平台能力的协同价值。 何为护城河？体系化能力支撑品牌价值，品牌反哺标准化扩张 我们认为公司通过对人、货、场全面重塑，有效破解了月子中心"高信任成 本、高获利门槛"的困局，已构建起"品牌-规模"的正向循环：1)稀缺的 高端本土品牌：以差异化高端服务重 ...

Core Insights - The article highlights significant capital inflows and outflows in various commodity futures, indicating a shift in market sentiment and investment strategies [1] Group 1: Capital Inflows - Major commodities with capital inflows include gold (CNY 1.76 billion), silver (CNY 1.71 billion), coking coal (CNY 1.62 billion), bottle flakes (CNY 0.41 billion), and logs (CNY 0.30 billion) [1] - The overall trend shows a substantial inflow into specific commodities, particularly precious metals and certain industrial materials [1] Group 2: Capital Outflows - Key commodities experiencing capital outflows include palm oil (CNY 3.34 billion), crude oil (CNY 2.85 billion), polysilicon (CNY 2.43 billion), copper (CNY 1.65 billion), and soybean oil (CNY 1.39 billion) [1] - The article notes that the black and non-ferrous metal sectors are also showing slight outflows, with a focus on polysilicon and industrial silicon [1] Group 3: Sector Analysis - The overall commodity futures market is experiencing a significant outflow, particularly in the agricultural and chemical sectors, with notable attention on palm oil, crude oil, soybean oil, and rubber [1] - Conversely, there is a noteworthy inflow in bottle flakes, logs, and fuel oil, indicating potential investment opportunities in these areas [1] - The financial sector is highlighted with a focus on the 2-year government bonds and the CSI 300 index futures [1]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [2] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve revenue of no less than RMB 448 million in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of no less than 25%. The total revenue, including the income from the entrusted management of maternity centers, is projected to be no less than RMB 520 million, reflecting a growth of no less than 35% compared to the same period in 2024. The company anticipates a net profit of no less than RMB 320 million, a significant turnaround from a net loss of RMB 480 million in 2024 [5][6] Company Overview - The company was established in 2017, starting with the first maternity center in Hangzhou, and has positioned itself in the postpartum care market with a high-end focus. It employs a "high-end hotel + professional care" light asset model, collaborating with top hotels to lease space, thus avoiding heavy capital investments typical of traditional standalone models [6][7] - The company has expanded its brand portfolio and global strategy since 2018, creating a pyramid matrix with flagship brand "Saint Bella" targeting ultra-high-net-worth individuals, "Little Bella" aimed at young middle-class consumers, and "Aiyu" focusing on psychological healing needs. It has also acquired the brand "Guanghetang" to enter the functional food sector for women and launched the family care brand "Yujia" to extend services from maternity centers to postpartum recovery and early childhood care, forming a "pregnancy-birth-raising" closed loop [6][7] Financial Performance - From 2022 to 2024, the company's revenue is expected to grow from RMB 472 million to RMB 799 million, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 30.1%. The core driver of this growth is the maternity center business, which accounts for 85% of total revenue. The adjusted net profit is projected to turn from a loss in 2022 to a profit in 2023 and 2024, with adjusted net profits of RMB 21 million and RMB 42 million respectively [6][9] - The company is expected to achieve revenue of RMB 1.076 billion, RMB 1.403 billion, and RMB 1.777 billion in 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 34.73%, 30.42%, and 26.65%. The forecasted net profit attributable to the parent company for the same years is RMB 315 million, RMB 406 million, and RMB 478 million, reflecting significant growth [9][11]

智通财经8月1日电，期货市场暗示，交易员认为美联储在9月会议上降息25个基点的可能性为75%而就 业报告公布前为45%。 降息会带来美元贬值，同时全球经济刺激预期增强，原油需求预期改善，进而促使价格上升。 本周化工季节性库存如下： 来源：市场资讯 （来源：秋灵儿） 今天是2025年8月3号，星期天。 连绵的雨一直在下，下的都没心情码字了。 本周好像没啥新闻，有个报道。 2. 锰硅，与去年同期相比，偏离57.69% 3. 花生库存，与去年同期相比，偏离121.91%。 本周黑色季节性库存如下： 本周有色能源品种季节性库存如下： 本周农产品季节性库存： 季节性周度库存在交易当中是第一个可以参考的库存。 库存数据放到供需平衡表里面去看准确性会提高。 我只统计与去年同期相比，库存数据偏离超过50%的，只是我个人的爱好而已，不能代表啥。 每一个数据我都认真的核对过了，也可能会出错。 库存偏高的有： 1. 尿素，与去年同期相比，偏离341.46% 4. 菜油油厂库存，与去年同期相比，偏离101.32%。 5. 黄金，与去年同期相比，偏离118.66%。 6. 纯碱库存，与去年同期相比，偏离67.08%。 7. 铅社会库存 ...

薛鹤翔、柴玉荣（薛鹤翔系申银万国期货研究所所长、中国首席经济学家论坛成员） + 摘要 Ø 今年由于受到特朗普贸易关税的影响，集运欧线运价整体呈现出"中枢下移但波动放大"的显著特征，虽然运价水平较2024年回 落，但其季节性波动规律依然较为清晰。当前，集运欧线现货运价再一次来到了旺转淡的拐点。通常情况下集运欧线运价都会呈 现较为明显的季节性特征，本质上源于国际海运贸易需求的阶段性波动和我国的出口节奏。 Ø 从五年走势中可以提炼出两个重要规律：一是外部冲击会显著改变淡季的深度和节奏，如2021年港口拥堵缓冲了跌势；二是旺 季高度与淡季跌幅存在正相关性，即旺季冲高越剧烈，淡季回调往往越深（2021年除外），这对预判淡季行情具有参考价值。此 外，船公司的运力调控策略也在不断进化，通过空班和航速调整来平滑运价波动。回到当下，7月上旬以来集运欧线运价逐渐趋 于平顶，马士基在第32周开启降价，至鹿特丹大柜报价2900美元，环比第31周下降100美元，第33周继续调降大柜运价100美元， 部分船司已开始跟降，运价基本确认进入淡季。此轮欧线旺季见顶于8月上旬，以马士基为计算基准的话，对应大柜在3000美元 左右。参考前文往年欧 ...

本文源自：金融界AI电报 金涌投资(01328.HK)发布公告，于2025年8月1日，公司全资附属公司Redwood通过于联交所进行市场上 交易以代价总额约230.9万港元(不包括交易成本)进一步收购31.5万股圣贝拉(02508.HK)股份，即约每股 圣贝拉股份7.3286港元。 ...

Group 1 - The company, Kingyung Investment (01328), announced the acquisition of 315,000 shares of Saint Bella (02508) at a total cost of approximately HKD 2.309 million, excluding transaction costs, at a price of HKD 7.3286 per share [1] - Between July 28, 2025, and August 1, 2025, Redwood, a wholly-owned subsidiary of the company, purchased a total of 1.83 million shares of Saint Bella for approximately HKD 13.823 million, at an average price of HKD 7.5536 per share [1] - Following these acquisitions, the group holds a total of 1.83 million shares of Saint Bella, representing about 0.29% of the total issued shares of Saint Bella as of the announcement date [1] Group 2 - The group primarily engages in providing investment management services and strategic direct investment [1] - The company maintains a positive outlook on Saint Bella's financial performance and future prospects, viewing it as a leading postpartum care and recovery group in China that also offers home care services and products catering to women's needs [1] - The investment in Saint Bella aligns with the group's investment criteria and serves the overall interests of the company and its shareholders [1]

Group 1 - The core announcement indicates that King Yong Investment (01328) plans to further acquire shares of Saint Bella (02508) through its wholly-owned subsidiary Redwood, with a total cost of approximately HKD 2.309 million, excluding transaction costs, for 315,000 shares at an average price of HKD 7.3286 per share [1] - Between July 28, 2025, and August 1, 2025, Redwood will acquire a total of 1.83 million shares of Saint Bella for approximately HKD 13.823 million, at an average price of HKD 7.5536 per share [1] - After these acquisitions, the group will hold a total of 1.83 million shares of Saint Bella, representing about 0.29% of the total issued shares of Saint Bella as of the announcement date [1] Group 2 - The group primarily engages in providing investment management services and strategic direct investment [1] - The group maintains a positive outlook on the financial performance and future prospects of Saint Bella, which is recognized as a leading postpartum care and recovery group in China, also offering home care services and food products catering to women's needs [1] - The investment in Saint Bella aligns with the group's investment criteria and serves the overall interests of the company and its shareholders [1]