转自：中国质量报 本报讯 （邵灵毅 记者曹吉根）记者近日从浙江省杭州市预付式消费信用建设社会共治发布活动上获 悉，杭州预付式消费综合治理收获系列成果。现场启动诚信经营社会共治行动，推出市场化改革全省推 广计划。 杭州市拱墅区作为首个实施预付式消费市场化改革的区县，积极探索打造预付式消费信用建设区县样 板。该区聚焦资金安全痛点，预付式消费市场化产品覆盖商户6256家，覆盖运动健身、医美、月子中心 等21个细分行业，保障1.1亿元资金安全。 活动现场，杭州市发布3项新政策举措：在杭州市通过合规第三方平台收取消费者预付款，可以依法豁 免发卡备案；可以依法突破5000元的限额；通过合规第三方平台积极参与探索预付式消费资金安全管理 新模式的经营主体，除获得金融机构的专项金融支持外，还有机会获得杭州市支持平台经济高质量发展 最高20万元的奖励。 为激励企业积极采用预付式消费资金安全管理新模式，在活动现场，杭州市美容美发行业星级评定委员 会公布首批99家一星级门店；杭州市体育休闲行业协会公布首批8个品牌的13家"信用+体育消费"应用场 景入驻门店并授牌；杭州市民营企业协会、杭州市个体劳动者协会，以 "杭企惠"平台为支撑，联 ...

（来源：南京晨报） "我是在他们月子中心坐月子的，回家之后还有几次产后康复需要做，所以我就回到月子中心做产后康 复，就是在做产后康复过程中，他们一通忽悠，我就稀里糊涂刷了68000元做了按摩。"钱女士告诉记 者，2025年12月12日下午，她到位于南京市建邺区金融城的优喜家月子中心做产后康复，月子中心一位 主管在给她进行检查后，说她生产后存在高低肩、长短腿、耻骨外翻、盆腔外开等一系列问题。"本来 我在生完孩子后，就对自己身体有点忧虑，他们这么一说当时就把我吓得不轻。" 看到钱女士很焦急，这位主管告诉她，他们月子中心和一家机构有很好的合作关系，这家机构有专家可 以通过按摩，来恢复钱女士目前存在的这些问题，并宣称这些专家曾帮多位明星进行过类似康复按摩。 听这位主管和月子中心其他工作人员介绍，钱女士动心了。"他们说一次修复终身没有问题，原价十几 万，最后给我打完折收费68000元。"钱女士说，当时她表示没有那么多钱，但月子中心表示可以刷信用 卡、花呗等诱导消费。最终，钱女士花费68000元，在月子中心花了三个多小时做完了康复按摩。 多次找月子中心 但对方不退款 做完按摩回到家后，钱女士把自己在月子中心的遭遇和家里人 ...

Core Viewpoint - The stock price of Saint Bella (02508.HK), known as the "Hermès of postpartum care," has been consistently below its IPO price, reflecting ongoing challenges in the high-end maternity care market despite initial capital support and a recent shift towards profitability [1][2][6]. Group 1: Company Background - Saint Bella was founded in 2017 by entrepreneurs Xianghua and Lin Wanyi, targeting a gap in the high-end maternity care market in China, particularly after the "two-child" policy was implemented [2][3]. - The company has received significant backing from notable investors, including Tencent and other prominent institutions, completing 10 rounds of financing before its IPO [3][4]. Group 2: Financial Performance - From 2021 to 2024, Saint Bella reported revenues of 259 million, 472 million, 560 million, and 799 million yuan, respectively, while incurring cumulative losses of 1.19 billion, 4.07 billion, 2.39 billion, and 5.47 billion yuan [8]. - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved a net profit of 327 million yuan, largely due to a 318 million yuan gain from the fair value change of financial instruments issued to investors [8]. Group 3: Market Position and Services - Saint Bella operates 113 stores globally as of August 2025, offering high-end postpartum care services through its brands, including Saint Bella, Aiyu, and Xiaobella, catering to different market segments [6][8]. - The company is recognized for its premium pricing, with packages reaching up to 1.048 million yuan for a 56-day stay, attracting high-profile clients such as celebrities [7][8]. Group 4: Strategic Initiatives - Saint Bella is actively expanding internationally, having entered the U.S. market with locations in California and New York, and is leveraging AI technology to enhance its service offerings [8][9]. - The company has implemented a "partner store plan," which has significantly increased the number of managed maternity centers, contributing to a 159.6% year-on-year revenue growth from these locations [8].

有着"月子界爱马仕"之称的圣贝拉(02508.HK)，12月24日盘中3.71港元的股价再创上市以来新低，随后股价反弹，至收盘涨3.03%，报4.08港元/股。 值得一提的是，圣贝拉曾面临多项处罚，包括无证行医、广告不合规。 作为一家主打高端产后护理及修复服务的企业，官网显示，圣贝拉的客户包括戚薇、唐艺昕、吉娜等一众明星。2024年，以来自中国月子中心的收入计 算，圣贝拉在中国的市场份额约为1.2%。 据此前媒体报道，以圣贝拉在深圳的三家门店为例，28天月子中心套餐的起步价最低为16.88万元，而56天套餐的最高收费价达到了104.8万元。服务内容 包括专业护士24小时一对一照护、主任级妇产科及儿科医生查房、米其林级月子餐等。 根据招股书，2021年至2024年，"圣贝拉"品牌月子中心每间产后护理服务房每晚的平均合同价值(以下简称日单价)逐年增长，分别为6726元、6740元、 6887元和7015元。相对来说，"小贝拉"品牌的日单价稍低一些，2024年为3298元，较2023年3478元的日单价有所下滑。 除了月子中心，圣贝拉还开拓了家庭护理和功能性食品等新业务，但都尚未形成规模，月子中心仍然是其主要营收来 ...

（原标题：绑定高奢酒店出圈，圣贝拉为何上市即破发？） 作者 | 黄绎达 编辑 | 张帆 而当下股价表现与此前市场对其基本面的乐观预期出现了显著背离，由此折二级市场投资者对超高端月 子中心赛道的估值分歧。那么，圣贝拉"高定价+轻资产"业务模式，究竟面临着怎样的内在矛盾？未来 业绩的核心看点都有哪些？ 圣贝拉是一门什么样的生意？ 圣贝拉当前的业务形态与名气，是其品牌形象和业务模式深度融合的产物。 从品牌来看，在月子服务市场中，圣贝拉已经站稳了"超高端"的品牌认知，这一心智的形成，一方面源 于高定价策略精准定位高净值人群，叠加其出众的服务硬件与专业的服务体系；另一方面，明星群体在 社交平台分享圣贝拉的服务体验，为其品牌形象提供了重要背书，进一步强化了超高端品牌的公众认 知。 头顶"全球家庭品质护理第一股"的光环，以经营高奢月子中心著称的圣贝拉在今年6月26日登陆港交 所。然而，上市后的股价表现，却与上市初期投资机构的普遍看好形成了强烈反差。截至12月16日，圣 贝拉报收4.08港元/股，跌破6.58港元/股的发行价，而相较上市首日8.80港元/股的收盘价已跌超50%。 图：圣贝拉股价走势；资料来源：wind，36氪 ...

Economic Trends - The domestic economy is expected to show six major trends in the second half of 2025 under the backdrop of "stability and improvement" [1] Demographic Changes - A significant decline in the number of newborns is anticipated to continue, driven by young people's financial pressures, such as rising housing costs and high childcare expenses. This will pose unprecedented challenges for industries related to maternity, childcare, and early education [3] - The long-term implications include a shortage of young labor supply, diminishing demographic dividends, and increased pressure on the social security system as the aging population grows [3] Financial Market Dynamics - With declining interest rates, there will be a rapid increase in demand for wealth management products. Deposit rates are falling, with three-year rates dropping below 2% and one-year rates nearing 1.5%. This trend is expected to continue, leading to a significant influx of savings into the stock market, funds, and bank wealth management products [4] - However, in a deflationary environment, the pursuit of high returns often comes with high risks, necessitating caution among investors [4] Rural Development - A trend of returning to hometowns for development is emerging, driven by high urban living costs and decreasing job opportunities. The government's "rural revitalization" strategy provides a platform for returnees to engage in various entrepreneurial activities, such as e-commerce, farming, and rural tourism [6] Real Estate Market - The real estate market is expected to show more pronounced differentiation, with varying price trends across regions. Cities that have experienced significant price declines, such as second and third-tier cities, will have limited downward potential. In contrast, first-tier cities like Shanghai and Shenzhen may face inevitable price corrections due to high housing price-to-income ratios [7] Employment Challenges - Middle-aged individuals are facing increasing employment difficulties due to a sluggish real economy and shrinking recruitment demand. Age discrimination in hiring is becoming more prevalent, with many companies preferring to hire individuals under 35, making it challenging for those over 40 to find jobs [7] - As a result, more middle-aged unemployed individuals may turn to flexible employment options, such as temporary work or self-employment [7] Impact of Artificial Intelligence - The rapid penetration of artificial intelligence (AI) is disrupting job markets across various industries. Companies are increasingly adopting AI technologies to replace human roles, such as customer service and delivery, leading to significant impacts on traditional employment [9]

Core Viewpoint - CITIC Construction Investment has initiated coverage on Saint Bella (02508) with a "Buy" rating, projecting revenues of 1.034 billion, 1.300 billion, and 1.556 billion for 2025-2027, with corresponding net profits of 372 million, 224 million, and 316 million, and an adjusted net profit of 115 million, 254 million, and 331 million, respectively, with a target price of 9.38 HKD [1] Group 1 - Saint Bella currently operates 113 stores globally, with 31 high-end brand locations in first-tier cities, establishing a strong high-end service image through innovative media channels [1] - The company is expanding into markets such as Hong Kong, Singapore, Los Angeles, and New York, aiming to capitalize on the overseas postpartum care market [1] - The brand's marketing strategy focuses on creating interactive scenarios with target customers, reflecting emotional value throughout the service process, which has led to high customer referral rates and effective cost management [1] Group 2 - Due to an oversupply of high-end hotels from the real estate boom, Saint Bella can adopt a flexible booking model, achieving high rental discounts while minimizing vacancy risks [2] - The management center model allows for low-cost, low-risk market expansion, enabling quick access to prime locations [2] - The postpartum care business is expected to achieve gross margins above industry levels, with significant potential for scale effects in the single-store model [2]

Core Viewpoint - The company has launched a "Postpartum Guarantee Fund Safety Account" service in collaboration with China Merchants Bank, aimed at ensuring the safety of advance payments made by customers for maternity center services [1][2]. Group 1: Service and Financial Management - The company requires customers to pay a 50% advance payment when signing the service contract, typically around six months before the expected delivery date [1]. - Advance payments will be placed in a bank-controlled special account, remaining frozen until the customer checks in and receives services, ensuring the safety of customer funds [2]. - This independent bank custody and closed funding supervision is expected to enhance customer trust and reduce decision-making time and costs [2]. Group 2: Industry Context and Impact - The postpartum center industry is experiencing a "shutdown wave" and "bankruptcy wave," with several centers closing down due to previous low-quality expansion and price wars [2]. - The company aims to raise industry service standards and operational thresholds, which may accelerate supply clearing in the market, positioning itself as a leader in providing high-quality products and services [2]. - The company is expected to benefit from a light-asset model relying on hotel management and a strategy of managing first before acquiring [3]. Group 3: Financial Projections - The company maintains adjusted net profit forecasts of 121 million, 198 million, and 302 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [3]. - The current stock price corresponds to a PE valuation of 32x, 19x, and 13x for the respective years, with a target PE of 30x for 2026, leading to a target price of 10.36 HKD [3].

Group 1 - The industry is entering a reshuffling phase, with Shengbeila (02508) establishing a special regulatory account with banks to enhance service standards and operational thresholds, which is expected to accelerate supply clearance [1][2] - Shengbeila is likely to benefit from a light asset model relying on hotels and a strategy of initially managing before acquiring, with adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 at 1.21 billion, 1.98 billion, and 3.02 billion yuan respectively [1] - The current stock price corresponds to a PE valuation of 32x, 19x, and 13x for the respective years, maintaining a "buy" rating with a target price of 10.36 HKD based on a 30x target PE for 2026 [1] Group 2 - As an industry leader, the company is the first to implement independent bank custody and closed fund supervision for customer prepayments, setting a benchmark for safety in the industry and promoting standardized development [2] - The industry is experiencing a wave of closures and bankruptcies, with notable cases such as Aijia Maternity Center, which filed for bankruptcy in early 2025, indicating a backlash from previous low-quality expansion and price wars [2] - The company's efforts to raise service standards and operational thresholds may accelerate supply clearance, positioning it to fully benefit as a standardized provider of high-quality products and services [2]

Group 1 - The industry is entering a reshuffling phase, with Shengbeila (02508) establishing a special regulatory account with banks to enhance service standards and operational thresholds, which is expected to accelerate supply clearance [1][2] - Shengbeila is anticipated to benefit from a light asset model reliant on hotels and a strategy of initially managing contracts before acquiring [1] - The adjusted net profit forecast for Shengbeila for 2025-2027 is projected at 1.21 billion, 1.98 billion, and 3.02 billion respectively, with a current PE valuation of 32x, 19x, and 13x, maintaining a "buy" rating and a target price of 10.36 HKD based on a 30x target PE for 2026 [1] Group 2 - As an industry leader, Shengbeila is the first to implement independent bank custody and closed-loop fund supervision for customer prepayments, setting a benchmark for industry safety and promoting standardized development [2] - The industry is experiencing a wave of closures and bankruptcies, with notable cases such as Aijia Maternity Center, which had 67 stores and went bankrupt in early 2025, indicating a backlash from previous low-quality expansion and price wars [2] - Shengbeila's efforts to raise service standards and operational thresholds are expected to accelerate supply clearance, positioning the company to fully benefit as a standardized provider of high-quality products and services [2]