BOC Aviation (02588) H2 2024 Earnings Call March 13, 2025 04:00 AM ET Speaker0Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to BOC Aviation Limited twenty twenty four Final Results Conference Call. I will now hand the session to Mr. Timothy Ross to begin today's presentation. Mr. Ross, please begin.Speaker1Thank you, Ray, and welcome everybody to VOC Aviation's earnings call to discuss our final results for the year ended 12/31/2024. With me today are our Chief Executive Officer and Managing Director, Stephen Townend our C ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [7]. Core Views - The company faced challenges in aircraft deliveries due to upstream manufacturers' capacity constraints, resulting in a year-over-year decrease of 26 aircraft delivered in 4Q24. The total number of owned aircraft slightly increased to 435 [2][3]. - The company is exploring engine business opportunities, having acquired 10 engines by the end of 4Q24, which is expected to help mitigate capital expenditure gaps caused by aircraft delivery issues [2][3]. - The anticipated core ROE for 2024 is expected to remain roughly in line with 2023 levels, despite potential pressure from rising funding costs due to the Federal Reserve's interest rate policies [4]. Summary by Sections Aircraft Delivery and Operations - In 4Q24, the company executed 77 transactions, including the delivery of 13 aircraft and commitments to purchase 14 aircraft and 4 engines. The total aircraft delivered in 2024 was 38, falling short of the mid-term target of 55 due to manufacturing capacity issues and a Boeing worker strike [3]. - The owned aircraft utilization rate remained stable at 99%, with an average fleet age of 5.0 years and an average remaining lease term of 7.9 years [3]. Financial Projections - Revenue and other income are projected to be $2,365 million in 2024, a decrease of 3.91% from 2023. The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted at $749.89 million, a slight decrease of 1.83% [6]. - The company’s target price has been adjusted to HKD 78, based on a projected PB of 1.04x for 2025 and a BVPS of USD 9.65 [5][12]. Market Conditions - The demand for air travel continues to recover, with global RPK increasing by 8.1% year-over-year in November. This recovery is expected to drive growth in aircraft leasing demand [4]. - The company’s stock is currently trading at 0.82x 2025E PB and offers a dividend yield of 4.4% [5][8].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of HKD 82.00 [2][7][10] Core Insights - In Q3 2024, the company delivered 7 aircraft, bringing the total owned aircraft to 430, a slight increase from 429 in Q2 2024. The company aims to actively seek opportunities for sale-leaseback and financing leases to expand capital expenditures [3][4] - The company sold 6 owned aircraft in Q3 2024, maintaining a stable utilization rate of 99% for its owned fleet. The average age of the fleet is 5.0 years, with an average remaining lease term of 7.8 years [4] - The company issued a 7-year USD 500 million bond at an interest rate of 4.625%, reflecting a decrease in financing costs compared to over 5% in the first half of the year [3][5] - The company slightly adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2024, 2025, and 2026 to USD 750 million, USD 705 million, and USD 780 million respectively, with a core net profit expectation of USD 570 million for 2024 [3][5] Financial Summary - The company reported revenues of USD 2.365 billion for 2024E, a decrease of 3.91% compared to 2023. The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected at USD 749.89 million for 2024E, a slight decrease of 1.83% [6][17] - The expected EPS for 2024E is USD 1.08, with a PE ratio of 7.44 and a PB ratio of 0.90 [6][17] - The forecasted ROE for 2024E is 12.52%, with a dividend yield of 4.55% [6][17] Market Context - The global air travel demand continues to recover, with a year-on-year increase of 8.6% in revenue passenger kilometers (RPK) as of August, which is expected to improve the profitability of airlines [5] - The ongoing Boeing workers' strike has intensified supply chain pressures, potentially leading to increased aircraft rental rates and values, while also affecting aircraft deliveries [4][5]

Topic 1: Financial Performance - Revenue increased by 15% year-over-year, driven by strong sales in the Asia-Pacific region [1]. - Net profit margin improved to 12%, up from 10% in the previous quarter [2]. - Operating expenses rose by 8% due to increased marketing and R&D investments [3]. Topic 2: Market Expansion - The company successfully entered two new markets in Europe, contributing to a 20% increase in international sales [4]. - A new distribution center was opened in South America to support regional growth [1]. - Strategic partnerships were formed with local retailers in Southeast Asia to enhance market penetration [3]. Topic 3: Product Development - Launched three new products in the tech segment, which accounted for 25% of total revenue [2]. - R&D spending increased by 10% to accelerate innovation and product differentiation [4]. - Customer feedback on the new product line has been overwhelmingly positive, with a 90% satisfaction rate [1]. Topic 4: Operational Efficiency - Implemented a new supply chain management system, reducing delivery times by 15% [3]. - Automation initiatives in manufacturing led to a 5% reduction in production costs [2]. - Employee training programs were expanded, resulting in a 10% improvement in operational productivity [4]. Topic 5: Sustainability Initiatives - Achieved a 30% reduction in carbon emissions through the adoption of renewable energy sources [1]. - Introduced eco-friendly packaging for all product lines, reducing plastic usage by 25% [3]. - Committed to achieving net-zero emissions by 2030, with a detailed roadmap published in the latest sustainability report [4]. Topic 6: Corporate Governance - Appointed two new independent directors to the board, enhancing oversight and strategic guidance [2]. - Strengthened compliance measures, resulting in zero regulatory violations this quarter [1]. - Shareholder engagement initiatives were expanded, with a focus on improving transparency and communication [3].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [7]. Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from a prolonged supply-demand imbalance in the aircraft leasing market, leading to sustained revenue growth and improved asset yields [10][12]. - The company's financial performance is projected to improve due to a favorable debt structure and potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [10][12]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company, backed by Bank of China, has over 30 years of experience in the aircraft leasing industry, primarily generating 80% of its revenue from operating lease income [10][19]. - The management team has extensive experience, with most members having over 25 years in the industry, which has helped the company navigate various market cycles [25][27]. Industry Outlook - The aircraft leasing market is expected to grow significantly, with the global fleet projected to reach 48,600 aircraft by 2042, representing a CAGR of 3.5% over the next 20 years [10][36]. - The penetration rate of aircraft leasing is anticipated to rise from 51.3% in 2023 to 60% in the coming years, indicating a shift towards leasing as a preferred method for airlines to acquire aircraft [10][36]. Asset and Liability Analysis - The demand for aircraft remains strong, with a year-on-year increase of 10.7% in global RPKs as of May 2024, and a projected annual demand for new aircraft exceeding 2,000 units [10][12]. - The supply side is constrained, with Airbus and Boeing's average monthly production at 72 aircraft, the second-lowest level since 2015, leading to a continued upward trend in aircraft rental prices [10][12]. - Approximately 30% of the company's debt is floating rate, and potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve could lower the company's funding costs, enhancing profitability [10][12]. Financial Projections and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve total revenues of $25.26 billion, $27.40 billion, and $29.40 billion for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 2.63%, 8.47%, and 7.28% [10][11]. - Net profit is expected to be $720 million, $835 million, and $945 million for the same years, with a CAGR of 7.34% [10][11]. - The report sets a target price of HKD 83.98, based on a historical valuation of 1.2 times PB for 2024 [10][12].

利息收入增长驱动营收上升，订单指标显 示公司经营稳步进行 中银航空租赁 1H2024 业绩点评 核心观点 ⚫ 利息及手续费收入增长显著，受债务成本影响公司租金收益率仍处低位。1） 1H24，公司实现营业收入 11.74 亿美元，+10.67%YoY，实现归母净利润 4.60 亿美 元，+75.87%YoY。2）1H24 飞机出租率为 99.1%（去年同期为 99.0%）；受全球 高息影响，1H24 债务成本为 4.6%，+0.7pct YoY，租金收益率与净租赁收益率分别 为 9.75%与 7.00%（去年同期分别为 9.78%与 7.00%），仍处于历史低位。3） 1H24 公司年化 ROE 为 15.58%，净利率为 39.18%（去年同期年化为 9.91%与 24.66%）。4）1H24 公司实现飞机租金收入、利息及手续费收入及处置飞机收益分 别 9.28/1.32/0.56 亿美元，同比分别-1.31%/+118.71%/+300.72%。 ⚫ 飞机交付与出售数量回升，订单簿、新签租赁承诺等指标显示公司经营稳步进行。 1）1H24 公司完成资本开支 8 亿美元，同比-50%，2H24 已承诺资本支出 ...

【广发非银&海外】中银航空租赁 （02588.HK） 负债端延续高企，待降息释放利润弹性 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： ⚫ 公司公布 2024 年半年度业绩：上半年经营收入及其他收入总额 11.74 亿美元，同比增长 11%，净利润 4.60 亿美元，较 2023 年上半年的 2.62 亿美元增长 76%。剔除减值影响后，核心净利润同比增长 10%。 ⚫ 资产端：融资租赁扩表+飞机销售贡献收入弹性。（1）交付受供应紧缺 影响表现较弱，24H1 交付 18 架新飞机（23H1 为 16 架），自有飞机 利用率为 99%。18 架飞机中有 6 架记为经营租赁资产、有 12 架记为 融资租赁资产。（2）经营租赁：经营租赁收入 yoy-1.3%，占经营收入 总额近 80%。租金收入下降主因飞机销售数量大于经营租赁引入的飞 机数量，24H1 出售 15 架飞机（去年同期 3 架），经营租赁飞机资产余 额 187.49 亿美元，较 23 年底下滑 2%。24H1 经营租赁费率为 9.8%， 与 2023 年上半年一致，公司出售飞机平均机龄为 10 年，13-14 年飞 机租金收益率较高，上述资产出售可能结构 ...

证券研究报告 中银航空租赁 (2588 HK) 港股通 (%)中银航空租赁 恒生指数 (22) (12) (2) 9 19 Aug-23 Dec-23 Apr-24 Aug-24 资料来源：S&P 基本数据 预计 2024 年净租赁收益率不会低于 2023 年 1H24 年净租赁收益率 7.0%（1H23：7.0%），经营性租赁费率为 9.8%（1H23： 9.8%），2023 年全年净租赁收益率/租赁费率为 7.1/10%，隐含 1H24 的净 租赁收益率和租赁费率可能低于 2H23。我们认为这可能是由于延迟交付对 租赁费率的拖累，以及资金成本的上涨。1H24 资金成本涨至 4.6%（1H23： 3.9%）。1H24 公司交付 18 架飞机，出售 15 架飞机，签署 55 份租约承诺， 自有机队数量小幅上涨至 429 架（1Q24：427 架），平均剩余租期 7.9 年， 平均机龄 4.9 年。融资性租赁贡献提升，1H24 融租收入同比增长 380%， 融租租赁费率涨至 7.2%（1H23：6.2%）。未来随着有更高租赁费率的新飞 机交付以及全球高息压力部分释放，我们认为 2024 年的净租赁收益率可能 不 ...

海 外 公 司 （ 中 国 香 港 ） 国泰君安版权所有发送给上海东方财富金融数据服务有限公司.东财接收研报邮箱.ybjieshou@eastmoney.com p1 盈利超预期，美联储降息预期利好成本改善 中银航空租赁(2588) [Table_Industry] 综合金融 [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 ——中银航空租赁 2024 年半年报点评 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2024.08.16 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------|--------------------|----------------------|-------------------------| | | 刘欣琦(分析师) | 谢雨晟(分析师) | 李嘉木(分析师) | | | 021-38676647 | 021-38674943 | 021-38038619 | | | liuxinqi@gtjas.com | Xieyusheng@gtjas.com | lijiamu026075@gtjas.com | | 登记编号 | S0880515050001 | S0880 ...

上 市 公 司 证 券 研 究 报 告 非银金融 -21% -1% 19% 39% HSCEI 中银航空租赁 | --- | --- | |------------------------|---------------------| | 市场数据： | 2024 年 08 月 15 日 | | 收盘价（港币） | 69.20 | | 恒生中国企业指数 | 6035.27 | | 52 周最高/最低（港币） | 70.25/47.15 | | H 股市值（亿港币） | 480.26 | | 流通 H 股（百万股） | 694.01 | | 汇率（人民币/港币） | 1.0914 | 财务数据及盈利预测 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------|-------|-------|-------|-------|-------| | | 2022 | 2023 | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | 营业收入（百万美元） | 2,307 | 2,461 | | | | | 同比增长率（%） | 6 | 7 | 5 ...