Core Viewpoint - The new IPO pricing regulations in Hong Kong have led to a significant profit-making effect, making new stock subscriptions a market focus, with a notable interest in Minglue Technology's IPO due to its strong backing and oversubscription rates [1][2]. IPO Details - Minglue Technology's IPO ended on October 28, with a public offering oversubscription rate of 3399 times, and shares are expected to start trading on November 3, 2025 [1]. - The company plans to issue 7.219 million Class A shares, with 10% allocated for public sale and 90% for international sale, at a price of HKD 141 per share [1]. - The IPO valuation is approximately HKD 20.357 billion, reflecting a 56% premium over its last financing round [1]. Share Structure and Stability Measures - Post-IPO, only about 2.745% of shares will be available for trading, indicating a small float to stabilize the stock price [3][5]. - Minglue Technology employed a "low-version issuance" strategy, limiting the public offering to 10% to reduce the float and stabilize the stock price [3]. - The company has secured seven cornerstone investors, who will collectively purchase approximately USD 59 million worth of shares, accounting for about 45.1% of the total offering [4][5]. Financial Performance and Market Position - Minglue Technology has raised over USD 627 million through 27 financing rounds, with major shareholders including Tencent, Sequoia China, Temasek, and Kuaishou [6]. - The company's market valuation has fluctuated significantly, with a peak valuation of approximately USD 3.05 billion in November 2020, dropping to around USD 542 million in 2023, and recovering to USD 1.666 billion by January 2024 [6][7]. - The company holds a 3.8% market share in the data intelligence application software sector, making it the largest player in China by revenue [17]. Revenue and Growth Prospects - Minglue Technology's revenue has shown volatility, with figures of RMB 1.269 billion in 2022, RMB 1.462 billion in 2023, and RMB 1.381 billion in 2024, indicating a lack of consistent growth [10][11]. - The company has been focusing on enhancing its AI capabilities to drive revenue growth, particularly in marketing and operational intelligence services [13][16]. - The adjusted net losses have been decreasing, with figures of RMB 1.099 billion in 2022, RMB 174 million in 2023, and RMB 45 million in 2024, with a profit of RMB 24.87 million in the first half of 2025 [14][15]. Market Valuation Concerns - The IPO valuation corresponds to a price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 14.74 based on the projected revenue for 2024, which is significantly higher than competitors, raising concerns about sustainability if revenue growth does not accelerate [17]. - The company's high valuation may be difficult to maintain without rapid revenue growth, especially given the competitive landscape in the data intelligence sector [17].

Core Insights - The new IPO pricing regulations in Hong Kong have led to a significant increase in interest in new stock offerings, with only 2 out of 24 companies experiencing a decline in share price post-IPO, and 10 companies seeing first-day gains exceeding 100% [1] - Minglue Technology's IPO has garnered substantial attention, with a public offering oversubscribed by 3,399 times, and shares expected to begin trading on November 3, 2025 [1][2] - The IPO valuation of Minglue Technology is approximately HKD 20.357 billion, reflecting a 56% premium over its last funding round [1] IPO Details - Minglue Technology plans to issue 7.219 million Class A shares, with 10% allocated for public sale and 90% for international investors, alongside a 15% over-allotment option [1] - The offering price is set at HKD 141 per share, with an entry fee of approximately HKD 5,696.88 [1] - Post-IPO, the shares available for trading will represent only about 2.745% of the total share capital, indicating a limited float [3][4] Shareholder Structure - Major shareholders include Tencent, Kuaishou, Sequoia China, and Temasek, with Tencent being the largest external shareholder, holding 25.96% of the company [4][6] - The introduction of cornerstone investors has locked in approximately 45.1% of the offering shares, which will not be sold for 270 days post-listing [4][6] Financial Performance - Minglue Technology has experienced fluctuating revenue, with reported revenues of RMB 1.269 billion, RMB 1.462 billion, and RMB 1.381 billion from 2022 to 2024, indicating a lack of consistent growth [10][11] - The company has reduced its net losses significantly, achieving a net profit of RMB 24.87 million in the first half of 2025, following losses in previous years [13][14] Market Position - As the largest data intelligence application software provider in China, Minglue Technology holds a market share of approximately 3.8% [17] - The company's high IPO valuation corresponds to a price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 14.74 based on its 2024 revenue, which may be difficult to sustain without rapid revenue growth [17]

Group 1 - The company Minglue Technology-W (02718) has completed its IPO subscription with a total subscription amount of HKD 346.8 billion, resulting in an oversubscription of 3,399 times based on the public offering amount of HKD 1.02 billion [1] - The company plans to issue 7.219 million Class A shares at a price of HKD 141 per share, aiming to raise HKD 1.02 billion, with a minimum entry fee of HKD 5,696.9 for 40 shares [1] - The company employs a "dual-class share" structure, allowing the founder to retain over 50% of the voting rights, with Class B shareholders having 10 votes per share compared to 1 vote per share for Class A [1] Group 2 - The company has entered cornerstone investment agreements with several investors, including Tencent, agreeing to subscribe for shares totaling up to approximately USD 59 million, which could represent 45.1% of the IPO shares if the overallotment option is not exercised [2] - The intended use of the raised funds includes approximately 35% for enhancing R&D capabilities, 40% for product development, 15% for marketing and sales team expansion, and 10% for working capital and general corporate purposes [2] - Minglue Technology provides data intelligence products and solutions, focusing on marketing and operational intelligence across online and offline scenarios, and is recognized as the largest data intelligence application software provider in China by total revenue for 2024 [2] Group 3 - The company's main clients include businesses in consumer goods, food and beverage, automotive, and 3C industries, aiming to enhance customer engagement and brand image through marketing intelligence products [3] - Revenue figures for the company show RMB 1.269 billion for 2022, RMB 1.462 billion for 2023, and a projected RMB 1.381 billion for 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 15.2% from 2022 to 2023, followed by a decrease of 5.5% from 2023 to 2024 [3] - For the six months ending June 30, 2024, revenue increased from RMB 565 million to RMB 644 million, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 13.9% [3]

Core Viewpoint - Minglue Technology-W (02718) has successfully completed its IPO subscription with a total margin subscription amount of HKD 346.8 billion, resulting in an oversubscription rate of 3,399 times based on the public offering amount of HKD 1.02 billion [1] Group 1: IPO Details - The company plans to issue 7.219 million Class A shares in its Hong Kong IPO, with 10% allocated for public offering and no mandatory reallocation [1] - The offering price is set at HKD 141 per share, aiming to raise HKD 1.02 billion, with a minimum entry fee of HKD 5,696.9 for 40 shares [1] - The company employs a "dual-class share" structure, allowing the founder to maintain over 50% of voting rights [1] Group 2: Cornerstone Investment - Minglue Technology has entered cornerstone investment agreements with several investors, including Tencent and other capital groups, agreeing to subscribe for shares totaling up to approximately USD 59 million [2] - If the over-allotment option is not exercised, cornerstone investors will account for 45.1% of the IPO shares; if fully exercised, they will still hold 39% [2] Group 3: Fund Utilization - Approximately 35% of the raised funds will be used to enhance technology research and development capabilities, 40% for product development, 15% for marketing and sales team expansion, and 10% for working capital and general corporate purposes [2] Group 4: Business Overview - Minglue Technology provides data intelligence products and solutions, focusing on marketing and operational intelligence across online and offline scenarios [2] - According to Frost & Sullivan, it is the largest data intelligence application software provider in China by total revenue in 2024 [2] Group 5: Client Base and Revenue - The company's main clients include businesses in consumer goods, food and beverage, automotive, and 3C industries, as well as offline retail and restaurant chains [3] - Revenue figures for the company are as follows: RMB 1.269 billion in 2022, RMB 1.462 billion in 2023 (15.2% YoY growth), and RMB 1.381 billion in 2024 (5.5% YoY decrease) [3] - For the six months ending June 30, 2024, revenue increased from RMB 565 million to RMB 644 million, representing a 13.9% YoY growth [3]

Core Viewpoint - Minglue Technology is launching a global IPO on October 23, with an expected listing on November 3, aiming to raise between 1.02 billion to 1.17 billion HKD, but faces significant financial instability and declining investor confidence [1][5]. Financial Performance - The company has shown unstable profitability, with net profits fluctuating dramatically from 1.64 billion RMB in 2022 to a projected loss of 20.3 billion RMB in the first half of 2025 [3][4]. - Research and development (R&D) expenditures have decreased significantly, from 59.2% of revenue in 2022 to only 23.4% in 2025, indicating a weakening of core technological capabilities [4][5]. IPO Details - The IPO is priced at 141 HKD per share, with a base issuance of approximately 7.22 million shares, potentially increasing to about 8.3 million shares with the green shoe option, leading to a market capitalization of around 20.4 billion HKD [1]. - The use of proceeds from the IPO includes 35% for enhancing R&D capabilities, 40% for product development, 15% for marketing and sales team expansion, and 10% for working capital [1]. Market Sentiment - Investor confidence has waned, as evidenced by a significant drop in valuation from 30.5 billion USD in 2020 to 5.4 billion USD in 2023, reflecting a decline of over 80% [5][6]. - The cornerstone investor lineup for the IPO includes seven investors, with a total investment of 59 million USD, but the quality of these investors is questioned, as many lack significant market influence [7][8]. Challenges Ahead - The company faces high entry barriers due to its dual-class share structure, which complicates its inclusion in the Hong Kong Stock Connect program, requiring a market cap of at least 20 billion HKD and a trading volume threshold [8]. - The extended lock-up period of 270 days for cornerstone investors indicates a lack of confidence in the company's immediate prospects, as it aims to prevent stock price volatility [8][9]. Institutional Demand - The IPO's structure, with nine underwriters, suggests potential insufficient demand from institutional investors, leading to the opening of international placement channels to attract retail investors [9][10]. - The high subscription rate of 1388 times as of October 27 indicates strong retail interest, but historical performance of similar IPOs raises concerns about post-listing stock performance [10].

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong IPO market is thriving with high-quality companies, including Minglue Technology, which is set to go public with a strong backing from notable investors and a positive market sentiment towards AI applications [2][4]. Company Overview - Minglue Technology (02718.HK) is launching its IPO from October 23 to 28, with an expected listing date of November 3, aiming to raise up to approximately HKD 1.02 billion by issuing around 7.219 million shares at HKD 141 each [2]. - The company has secured significant cornerstone investments totaling HKD 459 million from seven investors, including Tencent's Huanghe Investment and renowned institutions like Sequoia China and Temasek, enhancing investor confidence [2]. Financial Performance - The company's revenue experienced a rebound, rising to RMB 644 million in the first half of this year, a 14% year-on-year increase, after a decline to RMB 1.381 billion last year [2]. - Minglue Technology achieved an operating profit of RMB 6.14 million, with adjusted operating profit reaching RMB 26.88 million, indicating a significant improvement in operational performance [2]. Cost Control and Profitability - The company has demonstrated effective cost control, with gross margins exceeding 50% since 2022, and reaching 55.9% in the first half of this year, marking a historical high [3]. - The increase in revenue coupled with a decrease in costs suggests that the company's long-term investments in technology are beginning to yield returns, marking a turning point for AI applications towards commercialization [3]. Business Segmentation - Minglue Technology's two main business segments, Marketing Intelligence and Operational Intelligence, generated revenues of RMB 354 million and RMB 269 million respectively in the first half of this year, reflecting year-on-year growth of 9.7% and 16.8% [3]. - The Marketing Intelligence segment, particularly the "Miaozhen System," contributed RMB 320 million in revenue, growing by 10.9%, while Operational Intelligence focuses on providing solutions for offline stores, showcasing the company's practical approach in the B2B AI application space [3]. Market Context - The Hong Kong stock market has seen a recovery in high-valuation sectors, including pharmaceuticals and technology, benefiting from a shift to a lower interest rate environment [4]. - Despite a slight valuation adjustment post-funding in early 2024, the outlook for Minglue Technology remains positive, especially with the anticipated growth of AI enterprises in China by 2025 [4].

Group 1 - Minglue Technology plans to issue 7.219 million Class A shares globally, with a price of HKD 141.00 per share, aiming to raise approximately HKD 1.018 billion, netting around HKD 902 million after expenses [3][9] - The company has secured seven cornerstone investors, including Tencent, which controls 27.33% of Minglue Technology prior to the IPO [3][9] - The IPO market valuation of Minglue Technology is expected to be around HKD 20.357 billion, significantly lower than its previous valuation of approximately USD 30 billion in November 2020 [3][9] Group 2 - Minglue Technology's revenue for 2021, 2022, and 2023 was approximately RMB 1.043 billion, RMB 1.269 billion, and RMB 1.462 billion, respectively, with a decline of 4.65% in the first half of 2024 [9][10] - The net profit figures for the same years were approximately -RMB 2.502 billion, RMB 1.638 billion, and RMB 31.8 million, indicating a significant fluctuation in profitability [9][10] - The adjusted net losses for 2021, 2022, and 2023 were approximately RMB 1.067 billion, RMB 1.059 billion, and RMB 174 million, respectively, with expectations of turning profitable in the first half of 2025 [10][11] Group 3 - Minglue Technology is a data intelligence application software company focused on transforming enterprise marketing and operational strategies through the use of large models and multimodal data [12] - The funds raised from the IPO will primarily be used to enhance the company's technological research and development capabilities [13]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong IPO market is experiencing a cooling trend, with significant oversubscription rates for recent offerings indicating investor caution despite high demand [1][12]. Company Overview - Minglue Technology, established in 2006, specializes in data intelligence application software, providing solutions for marketing and operational intelligence across various industries [4]. - The company serves 135 Fortune Global 500 clients and is the largest data intelligence application software provider in China by projected revenue for 2024 [4]. IPO Details - Minglue Technology is set to launch its IPO from October 23 to October 28, with a total of 721,900 shares offered at a price of 141 HKD per share, aiming to raise approximately 1.018 billion HKD [3][10]. - The company has a market capitalization of 20.357 billion HKD and a price-to-earnings ratio of 4028 times [3]. Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, the company reported revenue of 644 million RMB, a 13.9% increase from the previous year, and achieved operational profit of 6.14 million RMB, marking a turnaround from a loss [6]. - Historical revenue figures show a fluctuation with 1.269 billion RMB in 2022, 1.462 billion RMB in 2023, and a projected 1.381 billion RMB in 2024 [5]. Market Position and Growth Potential - The data intelligence application software market in China is expected to grow from 32.7 billion RMB in 2024 to 67.5 billion RMB by 2029, with a compound annual growth rate of 15.6% [10]. - Minglue Technology holds a 3.8% market share, leading the industry, and is well-positioned to capitalize on the growing demand for data intelligence solutions [10]. Revenue Breakdown - The company's revenue is primarily derived from two segments: marketing intelligence and operational intelligence, with marketing intelligence being the dominant source [8]. - In the first half of 2025, marketing intelligence generated 3.54 billion RMB, accounting for 55% of total revenue, while operational intelligence contributed 2.69 billion RMB, representing 41.7% [8]. Investment Interest - Minglue Technology has attracted significant investment interest, having completed 27 rounds of financing since its inception, with notable investors including Tencent and Sequoia [9]. - The last round of financing in January 2024 valued the company at approximately 15 billion USD (about 116.6 billion HKD), indicating a 74% increase compared to its IPO valuation [9]. Competitive Landscape - Despite a competitive market, Minglue Technology's technological capabilities and client resources provide a strong advantage over competitors [10]. - Comparatively, the company's valuation metrics suggest it is priced higher than similar companies in the market, raising questions about its valuation sustainability [10].

Core Viewpoint - Minglue Technology is positioning itself as a leading data intelligence application software company in China, focusing on digital transformation for enterprise marketing and operational decision-making through the integration of large models, industry knowledge, and multimodal data [1]. Group 1: Company Overview - Minglue Technology plans to globally issue approximately 7.219 million Class A shares, with around 721,900 shares available for public offering in Hong Kong, accounting for 10% of the total [2]. - The offering price is set at HK$141 per share, with a minimum entry fee of approximately HK$5,697 for a trading unit of 40 shares [3][4]. - Tencent Holdings is a cornerstone investor, holding about 26% of the shares through its related entities, indicating strong backing and potential channel advantages in marketing intelligence and private domain marketing [4]. Group 2: Opportunities - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the accelerated digital transformation of Chinese enterprises, with a significant demand for the integration of online and offline multimodal data [5]. - Tencent's involvement provides a strong endorsement and potential synergies within its ecosystem, enhancing Minglue's capabilities in marketing intelligence and social advertising [6]. - The net proceeds from the offering, estimated at approximately HK$902 million, will be allocated primarily to technology research and development (35%), product expansion (40%), marketing (15%), and working capital (10%), indicating a clear direction for capital investment [7]. Group 3: Challenges - Despite revenue growth, the company has faced profitability pressures, having recorded losses in recent years, and is still in the transition phase from loss to profit [8]. - The competitive landscape in data intelligence and marketing intelligence is intense, with many players in the market, and the company needs time to convert its technological advantages into market advantages [9]. - The valuation of HK$141 per share may not be considered low for a company that has not yet achieved stable profitability, and market expectations for rapid growth and profitability could test investor patience [10]. - The entry fee of approximately HK$5,697 may be a barrier for some investors, and the company's dual-class share structure could introduce governance risks [11][12]. Group 4: Industry Comparison - Comparisons with peers such as SenseTime Group and SUNeVision Holdings highlight Minglue's specialized positioning in the data intelligence software sector, which is more niche compared to broader technology categories [13][14]. - Historical valuations for software and service companies in Hong Kong have been above 20 times earnings, indicating potential for high valuations if growth and profitability expectations are met [14]. Group 5: Subscription Strategy - Investors should clarify their expectations regarding participation in the IPO, whether seeking short-term gains or long-term growth, given the strong backing and hot market conditions [15]. - It is advisable to control the subscription amount due to the high entry barrier and the company's ongoing transition to profitability [15]. - Post-listing, investors should set clear expectations for stock price movements, considering potential significant gains on the first day [15]. Group 6: Long-term Considerations - Key factors for long-term holding include the company's ability to achieve profitability and maintain growth, the establishment of competitive barriers, and the expansion of market size and customer base [16][17][18]. - Monitoring overall market sentiment, valuation recovery in the tech sector, and sustained interest in data intelligence themes is also recommended [19]. Group 7: Market Performance Prediction - Based on the offering price of HK$141 and market conditions, the first-day stock performance could range from a 10% to 50% increase, with a most likely range of HK$160 to HK$190 [20][21]. - A strong market response could push the opening price to around HK$180 to HK$210, while a cautious market could see a more modest increase [21]. Group 8: Summary - Minglue Technology presents a new investment opportunity characterized by a hot sector, strong ecosystem backing, and clear fundraising purposes, but faces challenges in profitability realization and competitive pressures [22].

Core Viewpoint - Minglue Technology is set to launch an IPO in Hong Kong, aiming to raise approximately 1.018 billion HKD by offering 7.219 million Class A shares at a price of 141 HKD per share, positioning itself as the largest data intelligence application software provider in China and the first enterprise-level proprietary large model stock in the Hong Kong market [1][2]. Company Overview - Founded in 2006, Minglue Technology has evolved through three main business segments: marketing intelligence, operational intelligence, and industry solutions, including its flagship advertising data analysis platform, the "MiaoZhen System" [2][3]. - The company serves over 135 Fortune 500 companies, including Procter & Gamble, McDonald's, and Coca-Cola, with a focus on sectors such as retail, automotive, and consumer electronics [1][2]. Financial Performance - The MiaoZhen System generated 320 million CNY in revenue in the first half of 2025, maintaining a growth rate of 10.9%, while operational intelligence through smart store systems contributed 269 million CNY with a year-on-year growth of 16.8% [2][3]. - Minglue's adjusted operating loss has been narrowing, from 1.1 billion CNY in 2022 to 174 million CNY in 2023, and further down to 45.11 million CNY in 2024, indicating a trend towards profitability [5][6]. Product Development - The company has launched the DeepMiner proprietary large model product line, focusing on enterprise-level AI applications, which aims to address issues such as high "hallucination rates" and decision-making flaws in general AI models [3][4]. - Another key technology, HMLLM (Hypergraph Multimodal Large Language Model), integrates non-standard biological modal data to enhance marketing effectiveness by predicting consumer responses to advertisements [4]. Market Trends - The AI Agent market is projected to grow significantly, from 7.63 billion USD in 2025 to 50.31 billion USD by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate of 45.8%, indicating a robust opportunity for enterprise-level AI applications [4]. - The demand for proprietary large models is increasing due to rising concerns over data privacy and model controllability, creating a substantial growth space for leading companies in the sector [4][6]. Shareholder Composition - Minglue Technology has attracted significant investment from top-tier institutions, with Tencent being the largest external shareholder, holding 26.96% through three affiliated companies, alongside other major investors like Sequoia China and Kuaishou [5][6].