GREENTOWN SER(02869)
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绿城服务(02869.HK):行而不辍 逆势向上
Ge Long Hui· 2025-10-19 04:41
Group 1 - The company focuses on its core property management business, with strong growth momentum, expecting property management service revenue to account for 71.4% and gross profit to account for 56.3% by mid-2025 [1] - The company is enhancing its park services and consulting services by focusing on park products and services, while downplaying home life and cultural education services, which is expected to lead to operational recovery [1] - The company shows both growth and resilience in its financials, with projected net profit growth rates of 29.7% for 2024 and 21.4% for the first half of 2025, alongside improved gross and net profit margins [1] Group 2 - The company emphasizes shareholder returns with a dividend payout ratio exceeding 70% for 2023-2024 and has been actively repurchasing shares since 2022, with approximately 2.9% of total shares repurchased by October 17, 2025 [2] - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 9.4 billion, 10.9 billion, and 12.6 billion from 2025 to 2027, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 14.0, 12.0, and 10.4 [2]
绿城服务(02869):行而不辍,逆势向上
CAITONG SECURITIES· 2025-10-17 12:40
Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [2][68]. Core Insights - The company is focusing on its core property management business, which has shown strong growth momentum, with property management services accounting for 71.4% of revenue and 56.3% of gross profit as of the first half of 2025 [8][17]. - The company has a clear shareholder structure, with the four founding shareholders holding 46.61% of shares, ensuring operational independence [13][15]. - The company emphasizes shareholder returns, maintaining a high dividend payout ratio of over 70% for 2023-2024 and actively repurchasing shares [60][62]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company has been providing property management services for nearly 30 years and is recognized as a leading high-end property service provider in the industry [12][17]. Property Management Services - The company has maintained its position in the top tier of the industry, with significant expansion in managed area and high property fees [19][24]. - The average property fee reached 3.71 RMB/sqm/month in the first half of 2025, supported by a strong brand reputation [24][30]. - Key operational metrics such as renewal rates and collection rates are performing well, indicating strong service quality and management capabilities [31][32]. Financial Analysis - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 935 million RMB in 2025, with a growth rate of 19.12% [7][64]. - The gross profit margin is projected to rise to 19.5% in the first half of 2025, reflecting improved operational efficiency [44][46]. - The company’s sales and management expense ratio is on a downward trend, indicating potential for further cost optimization [47][67]. Shareholder Returns - The company has consistently maintained a dividend payout ratio above 30% since its listing, with a significant increase to over 70% in recent years [58][60]. - The company has repurchased approximately 2.9% of its total shares since 2022, demonstrating a commitment to enhancing shareholder value [62][63]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve total revenues of 19.44 billion RMB in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 8.6% [64][65]. - The estimated PE ratios for 2025 are 14.0, 12.0, and 10.4 for the years 2025-2027, indicating a favorable valuation compared to peers [68][69].
房地产行业2025年三季报业绩前瞻:房地产基本面依然低迷,板块业绩短期仍然承压
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities· 2025-10-12 13:42
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate industry, indicating a positive outlook compared to the overall market performance [2][10]. Core Insights - The real estate sector continues to face a sluggish fundamental environment, with performance under pressure in the short term. However, there are signs of potential recovery in the future, albeit at a slow pace [4][2]. - The report anticipates that the performance of the real estate sector will remain under pressure in Q3 2025 due to declining sales and low profit margins, but a gradual recovery is expected in 2025-2026 [4][2]. - The government is emphasizing policies to stabilize the real estate market, including urban renewal initiatives and easing purchase restrictions in major cities [4][2]. Summary by Sections Performance Expectations - The report predicts that the performance of the real estate sector will continue to be challenged in Q3 2025, primarily due to a decline in sales since 2021 and low profit margins driven by previous price cuts [4][2]. - Sales data shows that the top 50 real estate companies experienced a cumulative sales area decline of 25% year-on-year in Q1-Q3 2025, with significant monthly declines in July to September [4][2]. Company Performance Forecast - The report categorizes major companies based on their expected net profit growth for Q1-Q3 2025: - Companies with growth >+15%: Binjiang Group - Companies with growth between 0% and +15%: China Merchants Jinling - Companies with growth between -15% and 0%: China Merchants Shekou - Companies with growth between -30% and -15%: Jianfa Co., New Town Holdings - Companies with growth <=-30%: Poly Developments, Huafa Group [7][4]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on new opportunities in the real estate sector, particularly in "good housing" policies and the revaluation of commercial real estate. Specific companies are highlighted for investment: - Good housing companies: Jianfa International, Binjiang Group, China Resources Land, Greentown China, China Jinmao, Jianfa Co. - Commercial real estate and undervalued companies: New Town Holdings, Yuexiu Property, China Merchants Shekou, Longfor Group, China Overseas Development, Poly Developments, Huafa Group [4][2].
房地产开发2025W41:双节期间新房成交同比-20.7%,城市网签涨跌互现
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES· 2025-10-12 09:44
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate industry [4][6] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the current real estate policies are under pressure from the fundamental market conditions, suggesting that the policy response may exceed the measures taken in 2008 and 2014 [4] - Real estate is viewed as an early-cycle indicator, making it a key economic barometer [4] - The competitive landscape in the industry is improving, with leading state-owned enterprises and select mixed-ownership and private companies performing well in land acquisition and sales [4] - The report continues to favor investment in first-tier and select second- and third-tier cities, which have shown better performance during sales rebounds [4] - Supply-side policies, including land storage and management of idle land, are critical areas to monitor for future developments [4] Summary by Sections New Housing Transactions - In the week covering the National Day holiday, new housing transaction volume in 30 cities was 835,000 square meters, down 55.3% week-on-week and 53.4% year-on-year [11] - The decline in new housing transactions is attributed to a combination of last year's high base and the current market's sluggishness [11][12] - The report anticipates continued pressure on year-on-year data for the fourth quarter due to elevated bases from the previous year [11] Secondary Housing Transactions - In the same week, secondary housing transactions in 14 sample cities totaled 843,000 square meters, reflecting a 27.9% decrease week-on-week and a 47.9% decrease year-on-year [21] - Year-to-date, secondary housing transactions have reached 80.2 million square meters, showing a 16.1% increase compared to the previous year [21] Market Performance - The report notes that the Shenwan Real Estate Index decreased by 0.8%, underperforming the CSI 300 Index by 0.30 percentage points, ranking 23rd among 31 Shenwan primary industries [32] - The report identifies a total of 64 stocks that increased in value during the week, while 43 stocks decreased [32] Credit Bond Issuance - During the week, two credit bonds were issued by real estate companies, totaling 940 million yuan, a decrease of 11.28 billion yuan from the previous week [3]
绿城服务(02869) - 截至二零二五年九月三十日止股份发行人的证券变动月报表
2025-10-03 08:33
股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 截至月份: 2025年9月30日 狀態: 新提交 公司名稱: 綠城服務集團有限公司 呈交日期: 2025年10月3日 I. 法定/註冊股本變動 | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | 不適用 | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | | 是 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 02869 | 說明 | 普通股 | | | | | | | | | 法定/註冊股份數目 | | | 面值 | | 法定/註冊股本 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 38,000,000,000 | HKD | | 0.00001 HKD | | 380,000 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | 0 | | | HKD | | 0 | | 本月底結存 | | | 38,000,000,000 | HKD | | 0.00001 HKD | | 380,000 | 本月底法定/註冊股本總額: HKD 380,000 FF301 ...
房地产开发2025W39:本周新房成交同比-23.6%,预计Q4因基数抬升同比承压
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES· 2025-09-28 08:56
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate industry [4] Core Views - The current monetary policy stance in China is supportive, with measures to optimize down payment ratios and mortgage rates, potentially reducing interest expenses for over 50 million households by approximately 300 billion yuan annually [10][11] - The real estate sector is viewed as an early-cycle indicator, making it a key economic barometer [4] - The competitive landscape in the industry is improving, with leading state-owned enterprises and select mixed-ownership and private companies expected to benefit more in the future [4] - The report emphasizes a focus on first-tier and select second- and third-tier cities, which have shown better performance during sales rebounds [4] - Supply-side policies, including land storage and management of idle land, are critical areas to monitor for future developments [4] Summary by Sections Market Overview - The real estate index decreased by 0.2% this week, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.22 percentage points, ranking 11th among 31 sectors [12] - In the past week, 30 cities recorded new housing transaction areas of 186.1 million square meters, a 20.0% increase month-on-month but a 23.6% decrease year-on-year [23] New Housing Transactions - New housing transaction areas in first-tier cities reached 55.8 million square meters, up 11.6% month-on-month and up 12.5% year-on-year [23] - Second-tier cities saw transactions of 91.0 million square meters, a 41.9% increase month-on-month but a 20.5% decrease year-on-year [23] - Third-tier cities recorded 39.2 million square meters, down 4.1% month-on-month and down 50.6% year-on-year [23] Second-Hand Housing Transactions - The total transaction area for second-hand housing in 14 sample cities was 198.9 million square meters, a 1.4% increase month-on-month and a 13.9% increase year-on-year [31] - Year-to-date, the cumulative transaction area for second-hand housing is 7,815.4 million square meters, reflecting a 17.3% increase year-on-year [31] Credit Bond Issuance - This week, 14 credit bonds were issued by real estate companies, totaling 14.781 billion yuan, a 67.61 billion yuan increase from the previous week [41] - The net financing amount was 4.562 billion yuan, marking a significant increase of 111.56 billion yuan from the previous week [41]
地产及物管行业周报:上海住宅新规发布,好房子政策继续推进-20250928
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities· 2025-09-28 06:43
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors [3][4]. Core Insights - The report indicates that the broad housing demand in China has reached a bottom, although the volume and price have not yet entered a positive cycle. It predicts that the overall real estate market will continue to stabilize, with policies aimed at stopping the decline and promoting recovery [3][4]. - The report highlights significant policy support, including over 1.6 trillion yuan allocated for three major projects to stabilize the real estate market and support the delivery of nearly 20 million housing units [31][32]. - The report emphasizes the emergence of a new development track driven by favorable housing policies, which will enhance the penetration of quality housing in core cities [3][4]. Industry Data Summary New Housing Transactions - For the week of September 20-26, 2025, new housing transactions in 34 key cities totaled 2.458 million square meters, a week-on-week increase of 17.2%. The transaction volume in first and second-tier cities rose by 15.4%, while third and fourth-tier cities saw a significant increase of 43.8% [4][12]. - In September, the total transaction volume for new homes in 34 cities was 8.078 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 6.3% [7][8]. Second-Hand Housing Transactions - For the week of September 20-26, 2025, second-hand housing transactions in 13 key cities totaled 1.148 million square meters, a week-on-week increase of 3.8%. Cumulatively, September transactions were up 21.2% year-on-year [12][13]. Inventory and Supply - In the week of September 20-26, 2025, 15 key cities launched 1.48 million square meters of new housing, with a transaction volume of 950,000 square meters, resulting in a transaction-to-launch ratio of 0.64. The total available residential area in these cities was 90.309 million square meters, a week-on-week increase of 0.6% [21][22]. Policy and News Tracking - The report notes that various local governments are implementing policies to stabilize the real estate market, including subsidies for home purchases and regulations to improve housing quality [31][32]. - Shanghai has introduced new regulations to standardize balcony measurements and support the renovation of old residential areas [31][32]. Company Dynamics - New City Holdings issued USD 1.6 billion in overseas bonds, while Poly Developments announced a plan to issue corporate bonds not exceeding 150 billion yuan [38][39]. - The report tracks significant financing activities, including guarantees provided by major companies for their subsidiaries [38][39].
绿城服务(02869) - 2025 - 中期财报
2025-09-25 08:30
[Corporate Information](index=3&type=section&id=Corporate%20Information) This section provides key corporate information including board members, committee compositions, company secretary changes, and main contact details. [Board of Directors](index=3&type=section&id=Board%20of%20Directors) This section lists executive, non-executive, and independent non-executive directors, noting changes like Mr. Chen Hao and Mr. Liu Xingwei's resignations and Mr. Song Hailin's appointment. - Executive Director **Mr. Yang Zhangfa** serves as Chairman, and **Ms. Jin Keli** is an Executive Director[3](index=3&type=chunk)[4](index=4&type=chunk) - **Mr. Chen Hao** and **Mr. Liu Xingwei** resigned as Executive Director and Non-executive Director on **February 24, 2025**[3](index=3&type=chunk)[4](index=4&type=chunk) - **Mr. Song Hailin** was appointed as a Non-executive Director on **February 24, 2025**[3](index=3&type=chunk)[4](index=4&type=chunk) [Committees](index=3&type=section&id=Committees) This section details the composition of the Audit, Remuneration, and Nomination Committees, with Mr. Pan Zhaoguo chairing the Audit and Remuneration Committees, and Mr. Huang Jiayi chairing the Nomination Committee; Ms. Jin Keli was appointed to the Nomination Committee on May 28, 2025. - **Mr. Pan Zhaoguo** chairs both the Audit Committee and the Remuneration Committee[3](index=3&type=chunk)[5](index=5&type=chunk) - **Mr. Huang Jiayi** chairs the Nomination Committee, with **Ms. Jin Keli** appointed as a member on **May 28, 2025**[4](index=4&type=chunk)[5](index=5&type=chunk) [Company Secretary](index=4&type=section&id=Company%20Secretary) This section discloses changes in the company secretary role, with Ms. Ng Sau Wai resigning and Ms. Cui Jiaxin appointed as her successor on August 22, 2025. - **Ms. Ng Sau Wai** resigned as Company Secretary on **August 22, 2025**[4](index=4&type=chunk)[5](index=5&type=chunk) - **Ms. Cui Jiaxin** was appointed as Company Secretary on **August 22, 2025**[4](index=4&type=chunk)[5](index=5&type=chunk) [Key Contact Information](index=4&type=section&id=Key%20Contact%20Information) This section provides essential company information including authorized representatives, registered office, headquarters, Hong Kong principal place of business, share registrar, auditor, legal counsel, principal bankers, website, stock code, and listing date. - Authorized representatives are **Mr. Yang Zhangfa** and **Ms. Jin Keli**[6](index=6&type=chunk)[8](index=8&type=chunk) - The company's auditor is **KPMG**[7](index=7&type=chunk)[8](index=8&type=chunk) - The company's stock code is **2869**, and it was listed on **July 12, 2016**[9](index=9&type=chunk) [Definitions](index=6&type=section&id=Definitions) This section defines key terms and abbreviations used in the report, including currency units, company entities, geographical regions, and financial/operational metrics. - "The Period" refers to the **six months ended June 30, 2025**[13](index=13&type=chunk)[14](index=14&type=chunk) - "China," for the purpose of this report and regional reference, excludes Hong Kong, Macau SAR, and Taiwan[11](index=11&type=chunk) [Company Overview](index=8&type=section&id=Company%20Overview) The Group is a leading happiness living service provider in China, offering diversified services across property management, community living, and consulting, covering the entire life cycle of individuals and real estate. - The Group is a leading happiness living service provider in China, offering three types of businesses: property services, community living services, and consulting services[15](index=15&type=chunk)[16](index=16&type=chunk) - As of June 30, 2025, property services managed a contracted GFA of **536.3 million square meters**, covering 197 cities across 31 provinces, municipalities, and autonomous regions nationwide[18](index=18&type=chunk) - Community living services leverage mobile internet and smart community portals to provide daily necessities and quality living products/services, expanding and accelerating the traffic space for living services[18](index=18&type=chunk) - Consulting services utilize brand and professional advantages to offer project planning, design management, construction management, marketing management consulting, and digital product/service solutions to real estate developers and local property management companies[19](index=19&type=chunk) [Historical Financial and Operating Data Highlights](index=11&type=section&id=Historical%20Financial%20and%20Operating%20Data%20Highlights) This section summarizes the company's historical financial and operating performance, including consolidated results, revenue by service line, operating data, financial position, and consolidated cash flow. [Consolidated Results](index=11&type=section&id=Consolidated%20Results) For the six months ended June 30, 2025, revenue increased by 6.1% YoY to RMB 9,288.7 million, gross profit grew by 8.9% to RMB 1,808.1 million, and profit attributable to equity holders increased by 22.6% to RMB 612.8 million, with property services accounting for 71.4% of total revenue. Consolidated Results Summary for the Six Months Ended June 30 | Indicator | 2025 (RMB Thousand) | 2024 (RMB Thousand) | YoY Increase % | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Revenue | 9,288,711 | 8,752,891 | 6.1% | | Gross Profit | 1,808,096 | 1,661,030 | 8.9% | | Profit for the Period | 628,828 | 514,419 | 22.2% | | Profit Attributable to Equity Holders | 612,848 | 499,882 | 22.6% | | Earnings Per Share (RMB) | 0.20 | 0.16 | 25.0% | | Gross Profit Margin | 19.5% | 19.0% | +0.5pp | | Net Profit Margin | 6.8% | 5.9% | +0.9pp | Revenue Contribution and Gross Profit Margin by Service Line | Service Line | 2025 Revenue Contribution | 2024 Revenue Contribution | 2025 Gross Profit Margin | 2024 Gross Profit Margin | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Property Services | 71.4% | 68.8% | 15.3% | 14.9% | | Community Living Services | 14.6% | 16.5% | 26.6% | 23.4% | | Consulting Services | 14.0% | 14.7% | 33.1% | 32.9% | | Technology Services | - | 2.6% | - | 36.6% | - Technology services have been reclassified under management consulting services within the consulting services segment in **2025**[24](index=24&type=chunk)[25](index=25&type=chunk) [Revenue by Service Line](index=12&type=section&id=Revenue%20by%20Service%20Line) Property services revenue grew by 10.2% YoY, driving overall growth, while community living services revenue decreased by 6.0%, primarily due to a 53.8% drop in home living services revenue, and consulting services revenue slightly increased by 0.6%. Revenue by Service Line for the Six Months Ended June 30 | Service Line | 2025 (RMB Thousand) | 2024 (RMB Thousand) | YoY Increase/Decrease % | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Property Services | 6,632,856 | 6,018,592 | 10.2% | | Community Living Services | 1,356,749 | 1,442,815 | -6.0% | | - Community Products and Services | 676,200 | 643,416 | 5.1% | | - Home Living Services | 123,041 | 266,558 | -53.8% | | - Community Space Services | 173,015 | 153,067 | 13.0% | | - Property Asset Management Services | 333,472 | 329,044 | 1.3% | | - Cultural Education Services | 51,021 | 50,730 | 0.6% | | Consulting Services | 1,299,106 | 1,291,484 | 0.6% | | - In-progress Property Services | 1,011,618 | 996,531 | 1.5% | | - Management Consulting Services | 287,488 | 294,953 | -2.5% | | Technology Services | - | - | - | | **Total Revenue** | **9,288,711** | **8,752,891** | **6.1%** | [Operating Data](index=13&type=section&id=Operating%20Data) As of June 30, 2025, GFA under management steadily increased by 11.3% to 536.3 million square meters, but GFA under reserve decreased by 2.9% YoY, while average property fees remained stable. Operating Data Summary for the Six Months Ended June 30 | Indicator | 2025 | 2024 | YoY Increase/Decrease % | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Number of Property Service Contracts | 3,639 | 3,356 | 8.4% | | GFA Under Management (Million sq.m.) | 536.3 | 481.7 | 11.3% | | GFA Under Reserve (Million sq.m.) | 347.3 | 357.8 | -2.9% | | GFA Withdrawn (Million sq.m.) | 17.3 | 16.4 | 5.6% | | Average Property Fee (RMB/month/sq.m.) | 3.21 | 3.20 | 0.3% | - The decrease in GFA under reserve is mainly due to the domestic real estate development market environment, with the company prudently expanding in the incremental market and actively withdrawing from some non-core cities and projects with delivery risks[29](index=29&type=chunk) [Financial Position](index=14&type=section&id=Financial%20Position) As of June 30, 2025, total assets slightly decreased, total liabilities reduced, and net assets increased, with improved current and quick ratios, maintained net cash position, increased net cash per share, and enhanced net equity and total asset returns. Financial Position Summary as of June 30 | Indicator | 2025 (RMB Thousand) | 2024 (RMB Thousand) | Change % | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Current Assets | 13,561,678 | 12,369,072 | 9.6% | | - Cash and Cash Equivalents | 4,047,465 | 3,026,475 | 33.8% | | - Trade and Other Receivables | 7,030,064 | 6,280,086 | 11.9% | | Non-current Assets | 4,804,098 | 6,178,946 | -22.3% | | Total Assets | 18,365,776 | 18,548,018 | -1.0% | | Current Liabilities | 9,359,497 | 9,074,383 | 3.1% | | Non-current Liabilities | 549,610 | 1,244,488 | -55.8% | | Total Liabilities | 9,909,107 | 10,318,871 | -4.0% | | Net Assets | 8,456,669 | 8,229,147 | 2.8% | | Current Ratio | 1.45x | 1.36x | +0.09x | | Quick Ratio | 1.39x | 1.27x | +0.12x | | Net Debt-to-Equity Ratio | Net Cash | Net Cash | Maintained Net Cash | | Net Cash Per Share | 1.07 | 0.97 | 10.3% | | Return on Net Equity | 7.2% | 6.4% | +0.8pp | | Return on Total Assets | 3.3% | 2.8% | +0.5pp | [Consolidated Cash Flow](index=15&type=section&id=Consolidated%20Cash%20Flow) For the six months ended June 30, 2025, net cash outflow from operating activities increased, net cash outflow from investing activities significantly decreased, and net cash outflow from financing activities slightly reduced, resulting in a decrease in cash and cash equivalents at period-end compared to the beginning of the period. Consolidated Cash Flow Summary for the Six Months Ended June 30 | Indicator | 2025 (RMB Thousand) | 2024 (RMB Thousand) | Change % | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Net Cash From/(Used In) Operating Activities | (398,516) | (360,397) | -10.6% | | Net Cash From/(Used In) Investing Activities | (223,371) | (969,646) | 77.0% | | Net Cash Used In Financing Activities | (177,634) | (183,971) | 3.4% | | Net Decrease in Cash and Cash Equivalents | (799,521) | (1,514,014) | 47.2% | | Cash and Cash Equivalents at Period-End | 4,047,465 | 3,026,475 | 33.8% | [Chairman's Statement](index=16&type=section&id=Chairman's%20Statement) The Chairman's statement highlights the company's adherence to "Integrity and Righteousness" and "Quality as Foundation, Innovation for Good, Diligence and Professionalism" values, achieving steady and high-quality performance growth, outlining strategic focus, development drivers, and talent potential, and looking forward to the second half of the year. - The company adheres to its original aspiration of "Services Make Life Better," precisely breaking down strategies into quantifiable, implementable, and improvable execution paths for each business line[34](index=34&type=chunk)[38](index=38&type=chunk) - Property services market expansion focuses on core cities in the Yangtze River Delta, achieving dual upgrades in residential and commercial service spaces, and exporting "Greentown Standards" to the industry[36](index=36&type=chunk)[38](index=38&type=chunk) - Community commercial innovation with a "neighborhood ecosystem" model, community products and services revenue with **stable YoY growth**, and core product demand reach with **YoY improvement**[39](index=39&type=chunk)[45](index=45&type=chunk) - Elderly care/education businesses align with national policy, with home-based elderly care service stations increasing by over **40% YoY**, and domestic cultural education service centers achieving profitability for the first time[40](index=40&type=chunk)[46](index=46&type=chunk) - First-half operating revenue reached **RMB 9,288.7 million**, a **6.1% YoY increase**; profit attributable to equity holders reached **RMB 612.8 million**, a **22.6% YoY increase**[50](index=50&type=chunk)[54](index=54&type=chunk) - The company actively participates in ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) initiatives, promotes green and low-carbon development, and builds community welfare units through the "Happiness Village Foundation" while engaging in ecological protection activities[51](index=51&type=chunk)[54](index=54&type=chunk) - In talent development, the company has cultivated **131 outstanding young managers**, added over **8,000 certified professionals**, and achieved a **97.8% certification rate** for project managers[57](index=57&type=chunk)[60](index=60&type=chunk) - In the second half, the company will continue to enhance service density in core regions, deepen urban services and "elderly and children" connections, promote service product iteration and upgrades, and strengthen risk control and compliance management[62](index=62&type=chunk)[65](index=65&type=chunk) [Management Discussion and Analysis](index=21&type=section&id=Management%20Discussion%20and%20Analysis) This section provides a detailed discussion and analysis of the company's financial performance, balance sheet items, liquidity, capital structure, business segment performance, acquisitions, future prospects, and other management disclosures. [Financial Review](index=21&type=section&id=Financial%20Review) This section provides a detailed review of financial performance for the six months ended June 30, 2025, covering key metrics such as revenue, costs, gross profit, expenses, core operating profit, expected credit losses on financial instruments, other operating expenses, net finance income, share of profits from associates and joint ventures, profit before tax, income tax, and profit for the period. Revenue by Business Segment for the Six Months Ended June 30 | Business Segment | 2025 (RMB Thousand) | % of Total Revenue | 2024 (RMB Thousand) (Restated) | % of Total Revenue (Restated) | YoY % | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Property Services | 6,632,856 | 71.4% | 6,018,592 | 68.8% | 10.2% | | Community Living Services | 1,356,749 | 14.6% | 1,442,815 | 16.5% | -6.0% | | Consulting Services | 1,299,106 | 14.0% | 1,291,484 | 14.7% | 0.6% | | **Total** | **9,288,711** | **100.0%** | **8,752,891** | **100.0%** | **6.1%** | - Cost of sales increased by **5.5% YoY** to **RMB 7,480.6 million**[77](index=77&type=chunk)[78](index=78&type=chunk) - Gross profit increased by **8.9% YoY** to **RMB 1,808.1 million**, with gross profit margin rising by **0.5 percentage points** to **19.5%**, mainly due to cost control and efficiency improvement measures[80](index=80&type=chunk)[83](index=83&type=chunk) - Selling and marketing expenses decreased by **11.3% YoY** to **RMB 141.4 million**, with selling expense ratio decreasing by **0.3 percentage points** to **1.5%**[81](index=81&type=chunk)[84](index=84&type=chunk) - Administrative expenses decreased by **8.0% YoY** to **RMB 593.0 million**, with administrative expense ratio decreasing by **1.0 percentage point** to **6.4%**, mainly due to organizational streamlining and administrative overhead control[82](index=82&type=chunk)[85](index=85&type=chunk) Gross Profit Margin by Business Line for the Six Months Ended June 30 | Business Line | 2025 Gross Profit Margin | 2024 Gross Profit Margin | Change (Percentage Points) | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Property Services | 15.3% | 14.9% | +0.4 | | Community Living Services | 26.6% | 23.4% | +3.2 | | Consulting Services | 33.1% | 32.9% | +0.2 | - Core operating profit increased by **25.3% YoY** to **RMB 1,073.8 million**, mainly due to enhanced revenue quality management and efficiency improvement measures[87](index=87&type=chunk)[91](index=91&type=chunk) - Expected credit losses on financial instruments increased by **34.2% YoY** to **RMB 194.5 million**, primarily due to an increase in trade receivables balance[88](index=88&type=chunk)[92](index=92&type=chunk) - Other operating expenses increased by **86.4% YoY** to **RMB 88.8 million**, mainly due to increased impairment provisions for some long-term equity investments and other assets[89](index=89&type=chunk)[93](index=93&type=chunk) - Net finance income decreased by **10.9% YoY** to **RMB 34.6 million**[90](index=90&type=chunk)[94](index=94&type=chunk)[95](index=95&type=chunk) - Share of profit from associates increased by **RMB 0.6 million** to **RMB 9.7 million**, and share of profit from joint ventures increased by **RMB 4.2 million** to **RMB 6.3 million**[96](index=96&type=chunk)[101](index=101&type=chunk) - Profit before tax increased by **22.7% YoY** to **RMB 855.8 million**, mainly due to expanded operating scale and improved management efficiency[97](index=97&type=chunk)[102](index=102&type=chunk) - Income tax increased by **23.8% YoY** to **RMB 226.9 million**, with effective tax rate rising by **0.2 percentage points** to **26.5%**[98](index=98&type=chunk)[103](index=103&type=chunk) - Profit for the period increased by **22.2% YoY** to **RMB 628.8 million**, with net profit margin rising by **0.9 percentage points** to **6.8%**[99](index=99&type=chunk)[100](index=100&type=chunk)[104](index=104&type=chunk)[105](index=105&type=chunk) [Balance Sheet Items](index=26&type=section&id=Balance%20Sheet%20Items) This section outlines changes in key balance sheet items as of June 30, 2025, including investment properties, property, plant and equipment, right-of-use assets, intangible assets, trade and other receivables, trade and other payables, and lease liabilities. - Net book value of investment properties, property, plant and equipment, and right-of-use assets increased by **1.0%** to **RMB 1,241.9 million**[107](index=107&type=chunk)[112](index=112&type=chunk) - Intangible assets decreased by **7.3%** to **RMB 353.2 million**[108](index=108&type=chunk)[113](index=113&type=chunk) - Trade and other receivables increased by **26.1%** to **RMB 7,030.1 million**, mainly due to business scale growth[109](index=109&type=chunk)[114](index=114&type=chunk) - Trade and other payables increased by **13.7%** to **RMB 5,651.3 million**, mainly due to increased procurement scale and dividends payable[110](index=110&type=chunk)[115](index=115&type=chunk) - Total lease liabilities decreased by **11.6%** to **RMB 630.5 million**[111](index=111&type=chunk)[116](index=116&type=chunk) [Liquidity, Reserves and Capital Structure](index=27&type=section&id=Liquidity,%20Reserves%20and%20Capital%20Structure) The company maintained a sound financial position during the period, with increased current assets, decreased cash and cash equivalents but increased time deposits, disclosed long-term and short-term bank loans, and a slight increase in the debt-to-asset ratio. - Current assets increased by **7.2%** to **RMB 13,561.7 million**[117](index=117&type=chunk)[121](index=121&type=chunk) - Cash and cash equivalents decreased by **16.6%** to **RMB 4,047.5 million**, while time deposits increased by **25.3%** to **RMB 1,400.9 million**[117](index=117&type=chunk)[121](index=121&type=chunk) - Long-term borrowings were **RMB 21.2 million**, and short-term borrowings were **RMB 33.6 million**, primarily for daily operating needs[118](index=118&type=chunk)[119](index=119&type=chunk)[121](index=121&type=chunk) - The debt-to-asset ratio (total debt divided by total assets) was **54.0%**, an increase of **2.3 percentage points** from December 31, 2024[120](index=120&type=chunk)[122](index=122&type=chunk) [Business Segment Performance](index=28&type=section&id=Business%20Segment%20Performance) This section analyzes the performance of the three major business segments: property services, community living services, and consulting services, noting steady growth in property services revenue and gross profit with expanding GFA, a slight decrease in community living services revenue despite growth in certain sub-segments, and a marginal increase in consulting services revenue with growth in in-progress property services but a decline in management consulting services. [Property Services](index=28&type=section&id=Property%20Services) Property services, the Group's largest revenue and gross profit contributor, saw revenue grow by 10.2% to RMB 6,632.9 million and gross profit by 13.3% to RMB 1,017.8 million, with GFA under management increasing by 11.3% to 536.3 million square meters, though GFA under reserve decreased by 2.9% due to market conditions. - Property services revenue reached **RMB 6,632.9 million**, a **10.2% YoY increase**, accounting for **71.4%** of total revenue[123](index=123&type=chunk)[124](index=124&type=chunk) - Property services gross profit reached **RMB 1,017.8 million**, a **13.3% YoY increase**, accounting for **56.3%** of total gross profit[123](index=123&type=chunk)[124](index=124&type=chunk) - GFA under management was **536.3 million square meters**, a **11.3% YoY increase**, with a net increase of **54.6 million square meters**[124](index=124&type=chunk) - GFA under reserve was **347.3 million square meters**, a **2.9% YoY decrease**, mainly affected by the domestic real estate development market environment[128](index=128&type=chunk) - The number of managed projects reached **3,639**, covering 197 cities across 31 provinces, municipalities, and autonomous regions nationwide[128](index=128&type=chunk) Property Services GFA Under Management and Revenue by Region as of June 30 | Region | % of GFA Under Management | % of Total Revenue | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Hangzhou | 16.7% | 34.7% | | Ningbo | 7.0% | 6.0% | | Yangtze River Delta Region (Excluding Hangzhou, Ningbo) | 35.1% | 29.0% | | Bohai Rim Economic Circle Region | 15.6% | 12.3% | | Pearl River Delta Region | 9.2% | 7.5% | | Other | 16.4% | 10.5% | | **Total** | **100.0%** | **100.0%** | [Community Living Services](index=30&type=section&id=Community%20Living%20Services) Community living services revenue decreased by 6.0% YoY to RMB 1,356.7 million, but gross profit increased by 6.8% to RMB 360.5 million, with growth in community products and services, community space services, and property asset management services, while home living services revenue significantly declined due to the reclassification of Zhejiang Greentown House Service System Co., Ltd. as a joint venture. - Community living services revenue was **RMB 1,356.7 million**, a **6.0% YoY decrease**, accounting for **14.6%** of total revenue[129](index=129&type=chunk)[130](index=130&type=chunk) - Community living services gross profit reached **RMB 360.5 million**, a **6.8% YoY increase**, accounting for **19.9%** of total gross profit[129](index=129&type=chunk)[133](index=133&type=chunk) Community Living Services Revenue Breakdown for the Six Months Ended June 30 | Service Type | 2025 Revenue (RMB Thousand) | % of Total | YoY % | 2024 Revenue (RMB Thousand) | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Community Products and Services | 676,200 | 49.8% | 5.1% | 643,416 | | Home Living Services | 123,041 | 9.1% | -53.8% | 266,558 | | Community Space Services | 173,015 | 12.7% | 13.0% | 153,067 | | Property Asset Management Services | 333,472 | 24.6% | 1.3% | 329,044 | | Cultural Education Services | 51,021 | 3.8% | 0.6% | 50,730 | | **Total** | **1,356,749** | **100.0%** | **-6.0%** | **1,442,815** | - Home living services revenue significantly decreased by **53.8%**, mainly due to the reclassification of Zhejiang Greentown House Service System Co., Ltd. as a joint venture following management structure adjustments[130](index=130&type=chunk)[138](index=138&type=chunk) - Community products and services rely on a "convenience + relationship" community retail system, optimizing product structure, focusing on popular items, and enhancing competitiveness and premium capabilities[136](index=136&type=chunk)[137](index=137&type=chunk) - Cultural education services deepen a multi-brand strategy, building a matrix of "Greentown Wonderful Garden + Inclusive Childcare Park + Aomeng International Garden" three brands, and actively collaborating with the government to establish inclusive childcare centers[143](index=143&type=chunk)[145](index=145&type=chunk) [Consulting Services](index=35&type=section&id=Consulting%20Services) Consulting services revenue slightly increased by 0.6% YoY to RMB 1,299.1 million, with gross profit growing by 1.0% to RMB 429.8 million, driven by a 1.5% increase in in-progress property services revenue, while management consulting services revenue declined by 2.5% due to the real estate market environment. - Consulting services revenue was **RMB 1,299.1 million**, a **0.6% YoY increase**, accounting for **14.0%** of total revenue[146](index=146&type=chunk)[147](index=147&type=chunk) - Consulting services gross profit reached **RMB 429.8 million**, a **1.0% YoY increase**, accounting for **23.8%** of total gross profit[146](index=146&type=chunk)[149](index=149&type=chunk) Consulting Services Revenue Breakdown for the Six Months Ended June 30 | Service Type | 2025 Revenue (RMB Thousand) | % of Total | YoY % | 2024 Revenue (RMB Thousand) | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | In-progress Property Services | 1,011,618 | 77.9% | 1.5% | 996,531 | | Management Consulting Services | 287,488 | 22.1% | -2.5% | 294,953 | | **Total** | **1,299,106** | **100.0%** | **0.6%** | **1,291,484** | - In-progress property services revenue increased by **1.5%**, mainly through expanding high-end projects in core cities and extending service areas[150](index=150&type=chunk)[151](index=151&type=chunk) - Management consulting services revenue decreased by **2.5%**, mainly affected by the domestic real estate development market environment, and the company will continue to implement its city-deepening strategy to enhance competitiveness[150](index=150&type=chunk)[152](index=152&type=chunk) [Acquisition and Future Prospects](index=37&type=section&id=Acquisition%20and%20Future%20Prospects) The company adheres to an acquisition and investment strategy that emphasizes overall prudence and synergy with existing businesses, focusing on core operations, strictly implementing investment principles, prioritizing asset-light and stable growth, and valuing high-quality development over rapid expansion. - The investment strategy focuses on core businesses, strengthening operational efficiency management of acquired companies, and accelerating loss-making projects' cessation or disposal[154](index=154&type=chunk)[156](index=156&type=chunk) - Investment direction is guided by the Group's development strategy, emphasizing synergy with existing businesses[154](index=154&type=chunk)[156](index=156&type=chunk) - The investment model is primarily asset-light and stable, focusing on quality expansion of businesses, with rational and prudent investment[154](index=154&type=chunk)[156](index=156&type=chunk) - The company believes that high-quality development is more valuable than high-speed growth, and investments should support core businesses to maintain business scale and efficiency at the industry forefront[155](index=155&type=chunk)[157](index=157&type=chunk) [Other Management Disclosures](index=38&type=section&id=Other%20Management%20Disclosures) This section covers the company's disclosures regarding material litigation, foreign exchange risk, employee and remuneration policies, interim dividends, contingent liabilities, financial policies, asset pledges, material investments, and post-balance sheet events. - As of the report date, there were no outstanding material legal proceedings or claims that would affect the Group's normal operations[158](index=158&type=chunk)[163](index=163&type=chunk) - The Group primarily operates in China, with most transactions conducted in RMB, resulting in limited foreign exchange risk, and no financial instruments are used for hedging[159](index=159&type=chunk)[164](index=164&type=chunk) - As of June 30, 2025, the Group had **49,110 employees**, a **3.1% YoY increase**; total employee costs were **RMB 3,028.4 million**, a **5.0% YoY increase**, mainly due to new project deliveries and rising labor costs[162](index=162&type=chunk)[165](index=165&type=chunk) - The Board resolved not to declare any interim dividend for the six months ended June 30, 2025[166](index=166&type=chunk)[174](index=174&type=chunk) - As of June 30, 2025, the Group had no material contingent liabilities[167](index=167&type=chunk)[175](index=175&type=chunk) - As of June 30, 2025, a non-wholly owned subsidiary of the Group had a bank loan of **RMB 8.5 million** for purchasing office buildings, with the purchased property pledged as collateral[169](index=169&type=chunk)[177](index=177&type=chunk) - During the period, the Group had no material investments, significant acquisitions or disposals of subsidiaries, associates, and joint ventures, nor any future plans for material investments and capital assets[170](index=170&type=chunk)[171](index=171&type=chunk)[172](index=172&type=chunk)[179](index=179&type=chunk)[180](index=180&type=chunk)[181](index=181&type=chunk) - No material events occurred after June 30, 2025, and up to the date of this report that could affect the Group[173](index=173&type=chunk)[182](index=182&type=chunk) [Investor Relationship](index=40&type=section&id=Investor%20Relationship) The company is committed to maintaining high transparency and fostering effective interaction with shareholders, investors, fund managers, analysts, and the public through various channels to enhance shareholder value and stabilize stock price performance, actively participating in capital market activities and gaining market recognition. - The company aims to build long-term, interactive relationships by providing regular, timely, accurate, and complete corporate information, enabling shareholders and investors to understand the company's operations, value, and business development[183](index=183&type=chunk)[185](index=185&type=chunk) - During the period, the company communicated with a total of **599 investors** through phone calls or meetings[188](index=188&type=chunk)[190](index=190&type=chunk) - The company participated in various promotional activities organized by multiple brokers and investment banks, including UBS, Industrial Securities, Zhongtai Securities, CITIC Securities, and Citi[191](index=191&type=chunk) - During the period, the company organized **11 on-site visits**, inviting investors, fund managers, analysts, and media to visit its headquarters and managed communities[193](index=193&type=chunk)[194](index=194&type=chunk)[196](index=196&type=chunk) - The company holds two earnings announcements and press conferences annually and received **17 investment reports** from brokers, with most ratings being "Buy" or "Outperform"[197](index=197&type=chunk)[198](index=198&type=chunk)[199](index=199&type=chunk)[200](index=200&type=chunk) [Corporate Governance and Other Information](index=44&type=section&id=Corporate%20Governance%20and%20Other%20Information) This section details the company's corporate governance practices, including compliance with the Corporate Governance Code and Model Code for Securities Transactions by Directors, discloses changes in directors and senior management, and share repurchase and cancellation activities, along with information on directors', chief executive's, and substantial shareholders' interests and short positions in shares, and share option schemes. [Corporate Governance Practice](index=44&type=section&id=Corporate%20Governance%20Practice) The company is committed to maintaining high standards of corporate governance, has adopted the Corporate Governance Code set out in Appendix C1 of the Listing Rules, and complied with all applicable provisions for the six months ended June 30, 2025. - The company has adopted the Corporate Governance Code set out in Appendix C1 of the Listing Rules and complied with all applicable code provisions during the period[201](index=201&type=chunk)[202](index=202&type=chunk)[206](index=206&type=chunk) [Model Code for Securities Transactions by Directors](index=44&type=section&id=Model%20Code%20for%20Securities%20Transactions%20by%20Directors) The company has adopted the Model Code for Securities Transactions by Directors of Listed Issuers as set out in Appendix C3 of the Listing Rules, and all directors confirmed compliance for the six months ended June 30, 2025. - The company has adopted the Model Code for Securities Transactions by Directors as set out in Appendix C3 of the Listing Rules[203](index=203&type=chunk)[207](index=207&type=chunk) - All directors confirmed compliance with the Model Code for the six months ended June 30, 2025[203](index=203&type=chunk)[207](index=207&type=chunk) [Changes in Directors' and Senior Management's Information](index=44&type=section&id=Changes%20in%20Directors'%20and%20Senior%20Management's%20Information) Executive Director Ms. Jin Keli was appointed as a member of the Nomination Committee on May 28, 2025, and Independent Non-executive Director Mr. Pan Zhaoguo was appointed as an independent non-executive director of Konka Group Co., Ltd. on August 14, 2025. - Executive Director **Ms. Jin Keli** was appointed as a member of the Nomination Committee on **May 28, 2025**[204](index=204&type=chunk)[208](index=208&type=chunk) - Independent Non-executive Director **Mr. Pan Zhaoguo** was appointed as an independent non-executive director of Konka Group Co., Ltd. on **August 14, 2025**[205](index=205&type=chunk)[208](index=208&type=chunk) [Change of Company Secretary and Process Agent](index=45&type=section&id=Change%20of%20Company%20Secretary%20and%20Process%20Agent) Ms. Ng Sau Wai resigned as Company Secretary and Process Agent due to work reallocation on August 22, 2025, and Ms. Cui Jiaxin was appointed as her successor on the same day. - **Ms. Ng Sau Wai** resigned as Company Secretary and Process Agent on **August 22, 2025**[210](index=210&type=chunk)[214](index=214&type=chunk) - **Ms. Cui Jiaxin** was appointed as Company Secretary and Process Agent on **August 22, 2025**[211](index=211&type=chunk)[214](index=214&type=chunk) [Purchase, Sale or Redemption of the Listed Securities of the Company](index=45&type=section&id=Purchase,%20Sale%20or%20Redemption%20of%20the%20Listed%20Securities%20of%20the%20Company) For the six months ended June 30, 2025, the company repurchased and cancelled a total of 20,030,000 shares on the Stock Exchange for a total of HKD 64,954,223.11, with the Board believing that share repurchases enhance share value and serve the overall interests of shareholders. - For the six months ended June 30, 2025, the company repurchased **17,170,000 shares** on the Stock Exchange for a total of **HKD 64,954,223.11**[212](index=212&type=chunk)[215](index=215&type=chunk)[217](index=217&type=chunk) - Together with **2,860,000 shares** repurchased in 2024, a total of **20,030,000 shares** were cancelled on **May 8, 2025**[212](index=212&type=chunk)[215](index=215&type=chunk) - The Board believes that the trading price of the shares did not adequately reflect their intrinsic value and future business prospects, and share repurchases can enhance share value and improve shareholder returns[213](index=213&type=chunk)[215](index=215&type=chunk) - As of June 30, 2025, the company did not hold any treasury shares[217](index=217&type=chunk)[219](index=219&type=chunk) [Directors' and Chief Executive's Interests and Short Positions in Shares, Underlying Shares and Debentures](index=46&type=section&id=Directors'%20and%20Chief%20Executive's%20Interests%20and%20Short%20Positions%20in%20Shares,%20Underlying%20Shares%20and%20Debentures) This section discloses the interests and short positions of directors and the chief executive in the company's shares, underlying shares, and debentures as of June 30, 2025, including controlled corporation interests, spouse interests, and beneficial interests. Directors' and Chief Executive's Interests in Shares as of June 30 | Name | Capacity/Nature of Interest | Number of Shares (Excluding Equity Derivatives) | Number of Underlying Shares Granted Under 2018 Share Option Scheme | Number of Underlying Shares Granted Under 2023 Share Option Scheme | Approximate % of Company's Issued Share Capital | Long/Short Position | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Mr. Shou Bainian | Interest of controlled corporation | 1,020,000,000 | – | – | 32.43 | Long Position | | Ms. Xia Yibo | Interest of controlled corporation | 1,020,000,000 | – | – | 32.43 | Long Position | | Ms. Xia Yibo | Spouse interest | 3,500,000 | – | – | 0.11 | Long Position | | Ms. Li Hairong | Interest of controlled corporation | 423,868,339 | – | – | 13.48 | Long Position | | Ms. Li Hairong | Spouse interest | 28,000,000 | – | – | 0.89 | Long Position | | Ms. Li Hairong | Beneficial interest | – | 800,000 | – | 0.03 | Long Position | | Mr. Yang Zhangfa | Beneficial interest | 60,000,000 | – | – | 1.91 | Long Position | | Mr. Yang Zhangfa | Beneficial interest | – | 3,520,000 | 4,500,000 | 0.25 | Long Position | | Ms. Jin Keli | Beneficial interest | 4,240,000 | – | – | 0.13 | Long Position | | Ms. Jin Keli | Beneficial interest | – | 4,060,000 | 3,000,000 | 0.22 | Long Position | - **Mr. Shou Bainian**, **Ms. Xia Yibo**, and **Ms. Li Hairong** indirectly hold a significant number of shares through controlled corporations[223](index=223&type=chunk)[225](index=225&type=chunk)[226](index=226&type=chunk) - **Mr. Yang Zhangfa** and **Ms. Jin Keli** hold beneficial shares and share options[226](index=226&type=chunk) [Substantial Shareholders' Interests and Short Positions in Shares and Underlying Shares](index=49&type=section&id=Substantial%20Shareholders'%20Interests%20and%20Short%20Positions%20in%20Shares%20and%20Underlying%20Shares) This section discloses the interests and short positions of substantial shareholders, other than directors and the chief executive, in the company's shares or underlying shares as of June 30, 2025, including Orchid Garden Investment, Mr. Song Weiping, Lilac International Investment, Mr. Ju Jianhua, Longfor Group Holdings Limited, and Yiheng Capital. Substantial Shareholders' Interests in Shares as of June 30 | Shareholder Name/Entity | Capacity/Nature of Interest | Number of Shares | Approximate % of Company's Issued Share Capital | Long/Short Position | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Orchid Garden Investment | Beneficial interest | 1,020,000,000 | 32.43 | Long Position | | Osmanthus Garden Investment | Interest of controlled corporation | 1,020,000,000 | 32.43 | Long Position | | Delta House Limited | Beneficial interest | 3,500,000 | 0.11 | Long Position | | Mr. Song Weiping | Interest of controlled corporation | 1,023,500,000 | 32.54 | Long Position | | Lily International Investment | Interest of controlled corporation | 1,020,000,000 | 32.43 | Long Position | | Ms. Yao Wanjing | Spouse interest | 1,020,000,000 | 32.43 | Long Position | | ShenaLan International Investment | Interest of controlled corporation | 1,020,000,000 | 32.43 | Long Position | | Lilac International Investment | Beneficial interest | 423,868,339 | 13.48 | Long Position | | Mr. Ju Jianhua | Spouse interest | 424,668,339 | 13.50 | Long Position | | Mr. Ju Jianhua | Beneficial interest | 28,000,000 | 0.89 | Long Position | | Longfor Group Holdings Limited | Interest of controlled corporation | 294,674,363 | 9.37 | Long Position | | Yiheng Capital Partners, L.P. | Beneficial interest | 163,381,816 | 5.19 | Long Position | | Yiheng Capital, LLC | Interest of controlled corporation | 163,381,816 | 5.19 | Long Position | | Yiheng Capital Management, L.P. | Investment manager | 163,381,816 | 5.19 | Long Position | | Yiheng Capital Management, LLC | Interest of controlled corporation | 163,381,816 | 5.19 | Long Position | - Orchid Garden Investment, Osmanthus Garden Investment, Lily International Investment, and ShenaLan International Investment are considered parties acting in concert, collectively holding a significant number of shares[233](index=233&type=chunk)[235](index=235&type=chunk)[236](index=236&type=chunk) - **Mr. Song Weiping** holds shares through Osmanthus Garden Investment and Delta House Limited, and his spouse, **Ms. Xia Yibo**, is also deemed to have relevant interests[237](index=237&type=chunk) - **Yiheng Capital** and its affiliated entities hold **163,381,816 shares**, representing approximately **5.19%** of the issued shares[232](index=232&type=chunk)[237](index=237&type=chunk) [Share Option Schemes](index=52&type=section&id=Share%20Option%20Schemes) This section details the grant, exercise, lapse, and cancellation of the company's 2018 and 2023 share option schemes, including the number of options for directors and employees, exercise prices, vesting periods, and performance targets, with a total of 84,951,120 unexercised options under the 2023 scheme as of June 30, 2025. - The **2018 Share Option Scheme** was terminated on **June 16, 2023**, and as of June 30, 2025, the total number of options available for grant under this scheme was zero[242](index=242&type=chunk)[253](index=253&type=chunk) - The **2023 Share Option Scheme** was adopted on **June 16, 2023**, to replace the 2018 scheme[248](index=248&type=chunk)[254](index=254&type=chunk) - On June 10, 2025, the company granted a total of **19,227,680 share options** to senior management and certain employees, with an exercise price of **HKD 4.310 per share**[250](index=250&type=chunk)[254](index=254&type=chunk) - As of June 30, 2025, the total number of unexercised share options under the 2023 Share Option Scheme was **84,951,120**[251](index=251&type=chunk)[254](index=254&type=chunk) - The vesting period for share options is **3 years**, and is subject to performance targets such as the Group's core operating profit growth rate and individual performance levels[264](index=264&type=chunk)[265](index=265&type=chunk) Details of Share Option Movements for the Six Months Ended June 30 | Indicator | 2025 (Thousand Options) | 2024 (Thousand Options) | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Unexercised at Beginning of Year | 208,399 | 151,697 | | Forfeited During the Period | (8,950) | (14,541) | | Granted During the Period | 19,228 | 71,243 | | Exercised During the Period | (1,644) | – | | Unexercised at End of Period | 217,033 | 208,399 | | Exercisable at End of Period | 121,220 | 110,278 | - The fair value of share options is estimated using a binomial model, with input variables including forfeiture rate, expected volatility, expected dividends, and risk-free interest rate[430](index=430&type=chunk)[431](index=431&type=chunk)[432](index=432&type=chunk) [Directors' Rights to Acquire Shares or Debentures](index=59&type=section&id=Directors'%20Rights%20to%20Acquire%20Shares%20or%20Debentures) For the six months ended June 30, 2025, neither the company nor any of its subsidiaries entered into any arrangements enabling directors to acquire benefits by purchasing shares or debentures of the company or any other body corporate. - During the period, neither the company nor any of its subsidiaries entered into any arrangements enabling directors to acquire benefits by purchasing shares or debentures of the company or any other body corporate[267](index=267&type=chunk)[270](index=270&type=chunk) [Audit Committee](index=59&type=section&id=Audit%20Committee) The Audit Committee, comprising four independent non-executive directors with Mr. Pan Zhaoguo as chairman, is responsible for reviewing and overseeing the company's financial reporting process, risk management, and internal controls, and has reviewed the unaudited interim financial statements and interim results for the period. - The Audit Committee consists of four independent non-executive directors, with **Mr. Pan Zhaoguo** serving as Chairman[268](index=268&type=chunk)[271](index=271&type=chunk) - Its primary responsibilities include reviewing and overseeing the company's financial reporting process, risk management, and internal controls[268](index=268&type=chunk)[271](index=271&type=chunk) - The Committee has reviewed the Group's unaudited interim financial statements and interim results for the period[269](index=269&type=chunk)[272](index=272&type=chunk) [Review Report](index=60&type=section&id=Review%20Report) KPMG has reviewed the interim financial report for the six months ended June 30, 2025, in accordance with Hong Kong Standard on Review Engagements 2410, concluding that nothing has come to their attention to suggest the interim financial report is not prepared in all material respects in accordance with Hong Kong Accounting Standard 34. - **KPMG** has reviewed the interim financial report in accordance with Hong Kong Standard on Review Engagements 2410[276](index=276&type=chunk)[278](index=278&type=chunk) - The review concluded that nothing has come to their attention to suggest the interim financial report is not prepared in all material respects in accordance with Hong Kong Accounting Standard 34[279](index=279&type=chunk)[280](index=280&type=chunk) [Consolidated Statement of Profit or Loss and Other Comprehensive Income](index=62&type=section&id=Consolidated%20Statement%20of%20Profit%20or%20Loss%20and%20Other%20Comprehensive%20Income) For the six months ended June 30, 2025, revenue from continuing operations increased by 6.1% YoY to RMB 9,288.7 million, and profit for the period grew by 22.2% to RMB 628.8 million, with profit attributable to equity holders of RMB 612.8 million and basic earnings per share of RMB 0.195. Consolidated Statement of Profit or Loss and Other Comprehensive Income Summary for the Six Months Ended June 30 | Indicator | 2025 (RMB Thousand) | 2024 (RMB Thousand) (Restated) | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Revenue | 9,288,711 | 8,752,891 | | Cost of Sales | (7,480,615) | (7,091,861) | | Gross Profit | 1,808,096 | 1,661,030 | | Operating Profit | 802,501 | 647,670 | | Profit Before Tax | 855,770 | 697,724 | | Income Tax | (226,942) | (183,305) | | Profit for the Period | 628,828 | 514,419 | | Profit Attributable to Equity Holders of the Company | 612,848 | 503,585 | | Basic Earnings Per Share (RMB) | 0.195 | 0.158 | | Diluted Earnings Per Share (RMB) | 0.195 | 0.158 | - In other comprehensive income, exchange differences arising from the translation of financial statements resulted in a net loss of **RMB 86,570 thousand**[283](index=283&type=chunk) - Data related to discontinued operations (primarily the business of Montessori Academy Group Holdings Pty Ltd) has been restated[282](index=282&type=chunk)[285](index=285&type=chunk) [Consolidated Statement of Financial Position](index=65&type=section&id=Consolidated%20Statement%20of%20Financial%20Position) As of June 30, 2025, total assets were RMB 18,365.8 million, a slight decrease from the end of 2024, with net current assets increasing, total liabilities decreasing, and net assets growing to RMB 8,456.7 million. Consolidated Statement of Financial Position Summary as of June 30, 2025 | Indicator | 2025 June 30 (RMB Thousand) | 2024 December 31 (RMB Thousand) | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Non-current Assets | 4,804,098 | 5,044,528 | | Current Assets | 13,561,678 | 12,649,296 | | **Total Assets** | **18,365,776** | **17,693,824** | | Current Liabilities | 9,359,497 | 8,528,388 | | Non-current Liabilities | 549,610 | 622,379 | | **Total Liabilities** | **9,909,107** | **9,150,767** | | **Net Assets** | **8,456,669** | **8,543,057** | | Total Equity Attributable to Equity Holders of the Company | 7,706,262 | 7,788,687 | | Non-controlling Interests | 750,407 | 754,370 | | **Total Equity** | **8,456,669** | **8,543,057** | - Cash and cash equivalents were **RMB 4,047.5 million**, and trade and other receivables were **RMB 7,030.1 million**[287](index=287&type=chunk) - Trade and other payables were **RMB 5,651.3 million**, and contract liabilities were **RMB 2,443.8 million**[287](index=287&type=chunk) [Consolidated Statement of Changes in Equity](index=67&type=section&id=Consolidated%20Statement%20of%20Changes%20in%20Equity) For the six months ended June 30, 2025, total equity attributable to equity holders was RMB 7,706.3 million, with profit for the period of RMB 612.8 million, but total equity slightly decreased due to factors such as exchange adjustments and share repurchases and cancellations. Consolidated Statement of Changes in Equity Summary for the Six Months Ended June 30 | Item | 2025 January 1 (RMB Thousand) | Changes During the Period (RMB Thousand) | 2025 June 30 (RMB Thousand) | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Share Capital | 27 | – | 27 | | Share Premium | 2,577,453 | (60,022) | 1,951,045 | | Share Option Reserve | 178,258 | 18,829 | 195,999 | | Exchange Reserve | (129,096) | (86,570) | (215,666) | | Retained Profits | 5,289,445 | 612,848 | 5,902,293 | | Total Equity Attributable to Equity Holders of the Company | 7,788,687 | (82,425) | 7,706,262 | | Non-controlling Interests | 754,370 | (3,963) | 750,407 | | **Total Equity** | **8,543,057** | **(86,388)** | **8,456,669** | - Profit for the period was **RMB 612.8 million**, and net other comprehensive income was **RMB (86,606) million**[291](index=291&type=chunk) - Share repurchases and cancellations resulted in a decrease in share premium of **RMB 60,022 thousand**[291](index=291&type=chunk) [Condensed Consolidated Cash Flow Statement](index=69&type=section&id=Condensed%20Consolidated%20Cash%20Flow%20Statement) For the six months ended June 30, 2025, net cash used in operating activities was RMB 398.5 million, net cash used in investing activities was RMB 223.4 million, and net cash used in financing activities was RMB 177.6 million, with cash and cash equivalents at period-end totaling RMB 4,047.5 million. Condensed Consolidated Cash Flow Statement Summary for the Six Months Ended June 30 | Activity Type | 2025 (RMB Thousand) | 2024 (RMB Thousand) | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Net Cash Used In Operating Activities | (398,516) | (360,397) | | Net Cash Used In Investing Activities | (223,371) | (969,646) | | Net Cash Used In Financing Activities | (177,634) | (183,971) | | Net Decrease in Cash and Cash Equivalents | (799,521) | (1,514,014) | | Cash and Cash Equivalents at Period-End | 4,047,465 | 3,026,475 | - Cash outflow from investing activities significantly decreased, mainly due to reduced payments for the purchase of investment properties, property, plant and equipment, right-of-use assets, and intangible assets, as well as increased proceeds from the redemption of financial assets[294](index=294&type=chunk) - Cash outflow from financing activities slightly decreased, mainly due to reduced proceeds from new bank loans and other borrowings, but also a corresponding reduction in repayment of bank loans[295](index=295&type=chunk) [Notes to the Unaudited Interim Financial Report](index=71&type=section&id=Notes%20to%20the%20Unaudited%20Interim%20Financial%20Report) This section provides detailed notes to the unaudited interim financial report, covering the basis of preparation, changes in accounting policies, revenue and segment reporting, other income and net losses, profit before taxation, income tax, earnings per share, investment properties, property, plant and equipment, goodwill, interests in associates and joint ventures, other financial assets, trade and other receivables, restricted bank balances, time deposits and cash and cash equivalents, bank loans, contract liabilities, trade and other payables, capital, reserves and dividends, fair value measurement of financial instruments, commitments, material related party transactions, and discontinued operations. [Basis of Preparation](index=71&type=section&id=Basis%20of%20Preparation) This interim financial report is prepared in accordance with applicable disclosure provisions of the Listing Rules of The Stock Exchange of Hong Kong Limited and Hong Kong Accounting Standard 34 "Interim Financial Reporting" issued by the HKICPA, authorized for issue on August 22, 2025, and has been reviewed by KPMG. - The company was incorporated in the Cayman Islands on **November 24, 2014**, and its shares were listed on the Main Board of the Stock Exchange on **July 12, 2016**[297](index=297&type=chunk)[301](index=301&type=chunk) - The interim financial report is prepared using the same accounting policies adopted in the 2024 annual financial statements, except for changes in accounting policies expected to be reflected in the 2025 annual financial statements[299](index=299&type=chunk)[301](index=301&type=chunk) - This interim financial report is unaudited but has been reviewed by **KPMG** in accordance with Hong Kong Standard on Review Engagements 2410[303](index=303&type=chunk)[306](index=306&type=chunk) [Changes in Accounting Policies](index=72&type=section&id=Changes%20in%20Accounting%20Policies) The Group applied amendments to HKAS 21 "The Effects of Changes in Foreign Exchange Rates: Lack of Exchangeability" during the period, but it had no material impact on this interim report as the Group did not engage in related transactions, and no new standards or interpretations not yet effective were applied. - The Group applied amendments to **HKAS 21 "The Effects of Changes in Foreign Exchange Rates: Lack of Exchangeability,"** but it had no material impact on this interim report[304](index=304&type=chunk)[307](index=307&type=chunk) - The Group did not apply any new standards or interpretations not yet effective during this accounting period[305](index=305&type=chunk)[307](index=307&type=chunk) [Revenue and Segment Reporting](index=73&type=section&id=Revenue%20and%20Segment%20Reporting) The Group's revenue primarily derives from three business segments: property services, community living services, and consulting services, with technology services reclassified to management consulting services within the consulting segment for clearer business representation, and the Group manages its business by geographical location, reporting seven reportable segments. Revenue by Major Service Line for the Six Months Ended June 30 | Service Line | 2025 (RMB Thousand) | 2024 (RMB Thousand) (Restated) | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Property Services | 6,632,856 | 6,018,592 | | Community Living Services | 1,332,133 | 1,413,451 | | Consulting Services | 1,299,106 | 1,291,484 | | Gross Rental Income from Investment Properties (Community Living Services) | 24,616 | 29,364 | | **Total** | **9,288,711** | **8,752,891** | - Technology services have been reclassified to management consulting services within the consulting services segment, and relevant comparative data has been restated[313](index=313&type=chunk)[317](index=317&type=chunk) - The Group manages its business by geographical location, divided into seven reportable segments: Hangzhou, Yangtze River Delta region, Pearl River Delta region, Bohai Rim Economic Circle region, Australia (discontinued operations), other overseas and Hong Kong regions, and other regions in mainland China[315](index=315&type=chunk)[319](index=319&type=chunk)[320](index=320&type=chunk)[325](index=325&type=chunk) - Segment assets include all non-current and current assets (excluding deferred tax assets), and segment liabilities include trade and other payables and bank borrowings directly managed by the segment (excluding current and deferred tax liabilities)[321](index=321&type=chunk)[323](index=323&type=chunk) [Other Revenue and Other Net Loss](index=78&type=section&id=Other%20Revenue%20and%20Other%20Net%20Loss) For the six months ended June 30, 2025, other revenue primarily from government grants increased YoY, while other net losses were mainly affected by unrealized losses on convertible notes, fund losses, and increased impairment provisions for long-term equity investments. Other Revenue Summary for the Six Months Ended June 30 | Item | 2025 (RMB Thousand) | 2024 (RMB Thousand) (Restated) | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Government Grants | 30,785 | 16,503 | | Other | 8,480 | 6,128 | | **Total** | **39,265** | **22,631** | Other Net Loss Summary for the Six Months Ended June 30 | Item | 2025 (RMB Thousand) | 2024 (RMB Thousand) (Restated) | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Net Loss on Disposal of Property, Plant and Equipment | (3,498) | (445) | | Net Realized and Unrealized (Losses)/Gains on Financial Assets at Fair Value Through Profit or Loss | (43,299) | (26,125) | | Net Exchange Gains/(Losses) | 10,163 | (12,751) | | **Total** | **(27,184)** | **(39,325)** | - Unrealized losses of **RMB 49,158 thousand** were recorded on convertible notes, and fund losses of **RMB 28,084 thousand** were recorded[331](index=331&type=chunk) [Profit Before Taxation from Continuing Operations](index=79&type=section&id=Profit%20Before%20Taxation%20from%20Continuing%20Operations) This section details various factors affecting profit before taxation, including net finance income, staff costs, expected credit losses on financial instruments, impairment losses on goodwill and interests in associates, depreciation, amortization, and cost of inventories. Net Finance Income for the Six Months Ended June 30 | Item | 2025 (RMB Thousand) | 2024 (RMB Thousand) (Restated) | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Interest Income from Financial Assets Measured at Amortized Cost | (50,024) | (55,086) | | Interest Expense on Bank Loans | 1,047 | 3,857 | | Interest Expense on Lease Liabilities | 14,347 | 12,365 | | **Net Finance Income** | **(34,630)** | **(38,864)** | Staff Costs for the Six Months Ended June 30 | Item | 2025 (RMB Thousand) | 2024 (RMB Thousand) (Restated) | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Salaries and Other Benefits | 2,584,021 | 2,456,055 | | Equity-settled Share-based Payment Expenses | 18,829 | 10,641 | | Defined Contribution Plan Contributions | 425,597 | 418,558 | | **Total** | **3,028,447** | **2,885,254** | Other Items for the Six Months Ended June 30 | Item | 2025 (RMB Thousand) | 2024 (RMB Thousand) (Restated) | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Expected Credit Losses on Financial Instruments | 194,512 | 144,978 | | Impairment Losses (Goodwill and Interests in Associates) | 52,071 | 31,723 | | Depreciation (Property, Plant and Equipment, Right-of-Use Assets, Investment Properties) | 162,779 | 169,138 | | Amortization of Intangible Assets | 31,639 | 25,709 | | Cost of Inventories | 410,860 | 367,528 | | Outsourced Staff Costs | 2,736,441 | 2,646,008 | [Income Tax from Continuing Operations](index=82&type=section&id=Income%20Tax%20from%20Continuing%20Operations) For the six months ended June 30, 2025, income tax from continuing operations was RMB 226.9 million, a 23.8% YoY increase, with Chinese subsidiaries generally subject to a 25% corporate income tax rate, while some eligible enterprises enjoy preferential rates of 5% or 15%. Income Tax Summary for the Six Months Ended June 30 | Item | 2025 (RMB Thousand) | 2024 (RMB Thousand) (Restated) | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Current Tax — PRC Corporate Income Tax | 248,482 | 311,235 | | Deferred Tax | (21,540) | (127,930) | | **Total** | **226,942** | **183,305** | - Chinese subsidiaries are subject to a **25% corporate income tax rate**, with some small low-profit enterprises enjoying a **5% preferential tax rate**, and high-tech enterprises enjoying a **15% preferential tax rate**[347](index=347&type=chunk)[349](index=349&type=chunk)[351](index=351&type=chunk) - Hong Kong registered entities are not subject to Hong Kong profits tax as there was no relevant taxable income during the period[346](index=346&type=chunk)[348](index=348&type=chunk) [Earnings Per Share](index=84&type=section&id=Earnings%20Per%20Share) For the six months ended June 30, 2025, basic earnings per share from continuing operations was RMB 0.195, and diluted earnings per share was also RMB 0.195, with basic EPS calculated based on profit attributable to equity holders and weighted average ordinary shares. - For the six months ended June 30, 2025, basic earnings per share from continuing operations was **RMB 0.195**[352](index=352&type=chunk)[354](index=354&type=chunk) - For the six months ended June 30, 2025, diluted earnings per share was **RMB 0.195**, which is the same as basic earnings per share because the effect of potential dilutive ordinary shares was not anti-dilutive[356](index=356&type=chunk)[357](index=357&type=chunk)[358](index=358&type=chunk)[359](index=359&type=chunk)[360](index=360&type=chunk) Weighted Average Number of Ordinary Shares for the Six Months Ended June 30 | Item | 2025 (Thousand Shares) | 2024 (Thousand Shares) | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Ordinary Shares Issued at January 1 | 3,160,786 | 3,188,036 | | Effect of Exercise of Share Options | 37 | – | | Effect of Shares Repurchased | (16,449) | (23,739) | | **Weighted Average Number of Ordinary Shares at June 30** | **3,144,374** | **3,164,297** | [Investment Properties](index=86&type=section&id=Investment%20Properties) For the six months ended June 30, 2025, the Group's investment properties increased by RMB 76,136 thousand, primarily comprising office buildings leased out in Hangzhou and Ningbo. - For the six months ended June 30, 2025, investment properties increased by **RMB 76,136 thousand**[361](index=361&type=chunk)[366](index=366&type=chunk) - These properties primarily consist of office buildings leased out by the Group in Hangzhou and Ningbo[361](index=361&type=chunk)[366](index=366&type=chunk) [Property, Plant and Equipment and Right-of-Use Assets](index=86&type=section&id=Property,%20Plant%20and%20Equipment%20and%20Right-of-Use%20Assets) For the six months ended June 30, 2025, the Group acquired property, office equipment and furniture, motor vehicles, leasehold improvements, and construction in progress totaling RMB 78,858 thousand, and recognized additional right-of-use assets of RMB 31,496 thousand from lease agreements. - During the period, the Group acquired property, office equipment and furniture, motor vehicles, leasehold improvements, and construction in progress, with a total cost of **RMB 78,858 thousand**[362](index=362&type=chunk)[367](index=367&type=chunk) - Office equipment, furniture, and motor vehicles with a net book value of **RMB 6,027 thousand** were disposed of, resulting in a loss on disposal of **RMB 3,498 thousand**[363](index=363&type=chunk)[367](index=367&type=chunk) - The Group entered into lease agreements for office spaces, teaching buildings, and retail stores, recognizing additional right-of-use assets of **RMB 31,496 thousand**[364](index=364&type=chunk)[368](index=368&type=chunk) [Goodwill](index=86&type=section&id=Goodwill) For the six months ended June 30, 2025, an impairment loss of RMB 38,424 thousand was recognized for goodwill arising from the acquisition of the Digital Space Department, with impairment testing based on a five-year cash flow projection using specific assumptions for revenue growth, cost of sales percentage, long-term growth rate, and pre-tax discount rate. - For the six months ended June 30, 2025, an impairment loss of **RMB 38,424 thousand** was recognized for goodwill[365](index=365&type=chunk)[368](index=368&type=chunk) - Impairment testing is based on cash flow projections covering a five-year period, using the following key assumptions[365](index=365&type=chunk)[369](index=369&type=chunk) Key Assumptions for Goodwill Impairment Test as of June 30 | Assumption | Value | | :--- | :--- | | Revenue (Annual Growth Rate %) | 16.0% – 12.0% | | Cost of Sales (% of Revenue) | 64.1% – 59.8% | | Long-term Growth Rate | 2.0% | | Pre-tax Discount Rate | 17.3% | [Interest in Associates and Joint Ventures](index=87&type=section&id=Interest%20in%20Associates%20and%20Joint%20Ventures) For the six months ended June 30, 2025, the Group recognized an impairment of RMB 13,647 thousand on interests in associates, and acquired an additional 25% equity interest in Hangzhou Jiancheng Asset Management Co., Ltd. for a cash consideration of RMB 47,328 thousand, increasing its stake from 20% to 45% and reclassifying it as a joint venture. - For the six months ended June 30, 2025, an impairment of **RMB 13,647 thousand** was recognized on interests in associates[371](index=371&type=chunk)[374](index=374&type=chunk) - The Group acquired an additional **25% equity interest** in Hangzhou Jiancheng Asset Management Co., Ltd. for a cash consideration of **RMB 47,328 thousand**, increasing its stake from **20% to 45%**[372](index=372&type=chunk)[375](index=375&type=chunk) - Upon completio
行业深度报告:房价止跌回稳系列三:鉴往知来,人口不是影响房价唯一因素
KAIYUAN SECURITIES· 2025-09-24 09:50
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the real estate industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report indicates that new housing transaction areas have shown a month-on-month increase, while real estate development investment has decreased year-on-year from January to August 2025 [3] - The report highlights that the decline in housing prices has been consistent since 2022, with a significant drop in both new and second-hand housing prices across 70 cities, although the rate of decline has started to narrow due to supportive policies [5][16] - It emphasizes that the relationship between population growth and housing prices is not straightforward, as effective housing demand driven by economic development and income growth is crucial for influencing prices [5][25] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The real estate market has entered a downward trend since 2022, with new and second-hand housing prices experiencing a decline for over 40 months [5][16] - As of August 2025, the new housing price index across 70 cities has decreased by 3.0% year-on-year, while the second-hand housing price index has dropped by 5.5% [16][20] Population Impact - The report concludes that population factors are long-term variables with limited mid-term impact on housing prices, as the marginal changes in housing prices are influenced more by monetary policy, supply-demand relationships, and economic expectations [25][39] - A regression analysis across several developed countries shows that housing price indices do not have a significant correlation with population growth rates [40][42] International Experience - The report draws parallels with international experiences, noting that stable fiscal and monetary policies are essential for stabilizing housing prices after declines [6][46] - It cites examples from the U.S., Japan, and South Korea, where coordinated fiscal and monetary policies have successfully supported housing market recovery after significant downturns [46][49] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on real estate companies with strong credit ratings and solid fundamentals in urban areas, such as China Overseas Development and Poly Developments [7] - It also suggests that companies excelling in both residential and commercial real estate, as well as those providing high-quality property management services, are well-positioned for growth [7]
开源证券-房地产行业深度报告:房价止跌回稳系列三,鉴往知来,人口不是影响房价唯一因素-250924
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-09-24 09:49
Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the impact of mid-term population changes on housing prices in developed countries/regions is limited, as there is no significant positive correlation between housing price indices and population growth rates or numbers [1] - From 2022, housing prices in 70 cities have entered a downward trend, with a widening decline expected in Q3 2024, although the year-on-year decline has narrowed since Q4 due to supportive policies [1] - The current adjustment cycle in the housing market has seen both new and second-hand housing price indices decline for over 40 months [1] Group 2 - Historical data shows that housing prices in developed countries/regions have experienced fluctuations since the 1980s, with price corrections often exceeding those in China, but eventually stabilizing [2] - Key factors for stabilizing and recovering housing prices include coordinated fiscal and monetary policies, such as large-scale quantitative easing, interest rate cuts, and fiscal subsidies [2] - A stable policy outlook, low interest rate environment, and improved supply-demand structure are crucial for halting the decline and stabilizing the real estate market [2] Group 3 - The stabilization of housing prices is influenced by multiple factors, including monetary policy, supply-demand relationships, and economic expectations, rather than solely by population dynamics [3] - Recommended investment targets include strong credit property companies with good urban fundamentals and leading product capabilities, as well as firms that can drive both residential and commercial real estate [3] - The increasing penetration rate of second-hand housing indicates a promising outlook for the real estate after-service sector [3]