Core Insights - The report highlights the expansion of the top 50 property service companies in China, with a total new contract area of approximately 69.68 million square meters in July 2025, showing a decrease in expansion activity compared to June [1][11] - The leading sectors for third-party expansion in July were schools (27.4%), residential (24.2%), and office spaces (22.4%), indicating a shift in focus towards educational projects [1][13] - Country Garden Services secured the highest contract amount in July for a city service project, totaling nearly 140 million yuan, specifically for a sanitation integration project in Ningde City [1][19][22] Expansion Analysis - In July, the total new third-party expansion area reached 62.42 million square meters, with only six companies achieving a scale of over 3 million square meters, representing 36.4% of the total [11] - The top three companies for new commissioned project expansions were Yalife Group (4.38 million square meters), Shimao Services (4.11 million square meters), and China Overseas Property (4 million square meters) [12][11] - The overall new commissioned project expansion area for the top 50 companies decreased by 22.6% from June's 14.01 million square meters to 10.84 million square meters in July [23] Sector Performance - The top-performing companies in various sectors included Yalife Group in school projects (2.24 million square meters), Country Garden Services in residential projects (1.2 million square meters), and Shimao Services in office projects (1.44 million square meters) [16][18] - The diversification into non-residential sectors is becoming a competitive advantage for leading property companies, as they seek new profit growth points [16] Contract Amounts - The total contract amount for the top 10 city service projects in July was approximately 840 million yuan, with Country Garden Services leading at nearly 140 million yuan for a three-year sanitation project [20][22] - The report indicates that the top five companies for new associated presale areas were Greentown Services, Wanwu Cloud, Poly Property, China Merchants Jinling, and China Overseas Property, maintaining high conversion capabilities [23]

股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 本月底法定/註冊股本總額： HKD 380,000 FF301 第 1 頁 共 12 頁 v 1.1.1 截至月份: 2025年7月31日 狀態: 新提交 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 公司名稱: 綠城服務集團有限公司 呈交日期: 2025年8月5日 I. 法定/註冊股本變動 | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | 不適用 | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | | 是 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 02869 | 說明 | 普通股 | | | | | | | | | 法定/註冊股份數目 | | | 面值 | | 法定/註冊股本 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 38,000,000,000 | HKD | | 0.00001 HKD | | 380,000 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | 0 | | | HKD | | 0 | | 本月底結存 | | | 38,000,000,000 | ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that among the rated Chinese property management stocks, only China Resources Mixc Lifestyle (01209) receives a "Buy" rating, with expectations of maintaining double-digit profit growth and a dividend payout ratio of 100%, leading to an estimated dividend yield of about 5% and a target price of HKD 44 [1] - The report indicates that Chinese property management stocks have seen a cumulative price increase of over 20% year-to-date, suggesting that the valuation recovery phase has ended [1] - Due to a cautious outlook on the industry fundamentals, the company has downgraded profit forecasts for several property management firms, anticipating a slowdown in profit growth to single digits [1] Group 2 - Based on valuation, the rating for Poly Property (06049) has been downgraded from "Buy" to "Neutral," while China Overseas Property (02669) has been downgraded from "Neutral" to "Underperform," with target prices raised to HKD 37 and HKD 5.5 respectively; it is expected that China Overseas Property will have the lowest dividend yield in the industry at only 3.6% this year [1] - The rating for Greentown Service (02869) has been upgraded from "Underperform" to "Neutral," as its high-end brand aligns with the market demand differentiation trend, with the target price increased from HKD 3.8 to HKD 5 [1]

报告指，中国物管股年初至今股价累计上涨逾20%，预期估值修复期已结束。考虑到行业基本面仍持审 慎看法，该行下调对一众物管商的盈利预测，预期盈利增长幅度将放缓至单位数。 智通财经APP获悉，美银证券发布研报称，所评级的中国物管股当中，目前只有华润万象生活(01209) 获"买入"评级，美银证券预期该公司盈利维持双位数增幅，而且派息比率高达100%，股息回报率料达 约5%，予目标价44港元。 基于估值，将保利物业(06049)的评级从"买入"降至"中性"，中海物业(02669)也从"中性"降至"跑输大 市"，目标价分别升至37港元及5.5港元，预期中海物业今年预测股息回报率仅录3.6%，属行业最低。同 时该行将绿城服务(02869)的评级从"跑输大市"升至"中性"，认为其高端品牌符合市场需求分化的趋势， 目标价从3.8港元上调至5港元。 ...

Core Viewpoint - UBS upgraded the investment rating of Greentown Service (02869.HK) from "Neutral" to "Buy" and raised the target price to HKD 5.7, citing its superior positioning as an independent property management service provider compared to those supported by real estate developers [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Greentown Service has a strong capability to secure contracts from third parties, demonstrating flexibility in exiting underperforming projects and lower impairment risks [1] - UBS has adjusted its earnings forecast for Greentown Service for the years 2025 to 2027 upwards by 0% to 16%, anticipating an average annual compound growth rate of 19% in profits [1] Group 2: Financial Projections - UBS expects Greentown Service to achieve a 20% profit growth in the first half of this year, driven by double-digit growth in property management revenue and improvements in profit margins as well as selling, general, and administrative expenses [1] - The target price was raised from HKD 4.5 to HKD 5.7 based on a projected price-to-earnings ratio of 15 times for 2026 [1]

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Add" [6] Core Insights - In the first half of 2025, the transaction area of residential land in 100 cities increased by 2% year-on-year, while the average transaction floor price rose by 24% [1][4] - The top 50 real estate companies saw a 48% year-on-year increase in the value of newly acquired land reserves, totaling 521.3 billion yuan [2][82] - The core 30 cities experienced a 23% year-on-year increase in residential land transaction area and price [3][4] Summary by Sections 1. Supply and Demand of Land/Residential Land in 100 Cities - In the first half of 2025, the total supply of land in 100 cities decreased by 12.9% year-on-year, while the transaction area decreased by 5.6% [11] - The supply of residential land in 100 cities decreased by 15% year-on-year, with a transaction area of 93.37 million square meters, up 2.2% year-on-year [20] 2. Transaction Prices of Land/Residential Land - The average transaction floor price for residential land in 100 cities increased by 24.2% year-on-year, reaching 7,479 yuan per square meter [57] - The average transaction floor price in first-tier cities was 38,817 yuan per square meter, up 35.5% year-on-year [67] 3. Acquisition of Land by Top 50 Real Estate Companies - The top 50 real estate companies acquired land worth 5,213 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a 47.7% increase year-on-year [2][82] - The top three companies in terms of newly acquired land value were China Overseas Land & Investment (506 billion yuan), Poly Developments (502 billion yuan), and Greentown China (443 billion yuan) [91] 4. Transaction Situation of Residential Land in Core 30 Cities - In June 2025, the core 30 cities saw a 44% increase in residential land transaction area, with a total transaction area of 1,423 million square meters [97] - The overall premium rate for residential land transactions in the core 30 cities was 13.5%, up 8.4 percentage points year-on-year [4][101] 5. Investment Recommendations - Focus on stable leading real estate companies with high product reputation and continuous sales ranking improvement, such as Poly Developments, China Merchants Shekou, and China Jinmao [111] - Consider companies with rich commercial real estate resources and strong brand competitiveness, such as China Resources Land and New City Holdings [112] - Look at the long-term development potential of the property service industry, recommending companies like China Merchants Jinling and Greentown Service [112]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate sector, anticipating stronger policies to stabilize the market [3][4][36]. Core Insights - The investment and sales in the real estate sector are both weakening, with expectations for more robust policies to halt the decline and stabilize the market [3][4]. - The report highlights that the investment in real estate from January to June 2025 has decreased by 11.2% year-on-year, with new starts down by 20.0% and completions down by 14.8% [4][19]. - Sales volume and prices are both declining, with sales area down by 3.5% and sales amount down by 5.5% in the same period [20][35]. - Funding sources are tightening, with a 6.2% year-on-year decline in total funding sources for real estate development [36][38]. Investment Analysis Investment Side - Real estate development investment totaled 466.58 billion yuan from January to June 2025, down 11.2% year-on-year, with June alone seeing a 12.9% decline [4][19]. - New starts and completions are also down significantly, with new starts down 20.0% and completions down 14.8% year-on-year [19][20]. Sales Side - The total sales area for real estate was 460 million square meters, a decrease of 3.5% year-on-year, with June seeing a 5.5% decline [20][35]. - The average selling price of properties decreased by 1.9% year-on-year, with June's average price at 9,649 yuan per square meter, down 5.6% year-on-year [34][35]. Funding Side - Total funding sources for real estate development amounted to 500.2 billion yuan, down 6.2% year-on-year, with domestic loans showing a positive growth of 0.6% [36][38]. - Sales returns are weakening, with deposits and prepayments down by 16.7% year-on-year in June [36][38].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report indicates that the real estate market is moving towards stabilization, with new housing prices showing a decrease in month-on-month (MoM) but a smaller year-on-year (YoY) decline. The second-hand housing prices are experiencing a similar trend, with a YoY decline narrowing while the MoM decline is expanding [8][19][26]. Summary by Sections New Housing Market - In June 2025, new housing prices in first, second, and third-tier cities decreased by -0.3%, -0.2%, and -0.3% respectively, with a total of 70 cities showing a MoM decline of -0.3%, which is a 0.1 percentage point increase in decline compared to May [14][15]. - The YoY decline for new housing prices in first, second, and third-tier cities was -1.4%, -3.0%, and -4.6% respectively, leading to an overall YoY decline of 3.7% for 70 cities, which is a reduction of 0.4 percentage points compared to the previous month [14][15]. Second-Hand Housing Market - The second-hand housing prices in June 2025 saw a MoM decline of -0.6%, with first, second, and third-tier cities experiencing declines of -0.7%, -0.6%, and -0.6% respectively. This represents an increase in the decline of 0.1 percentage points compared to May [19][21]. - The YoY decline for second-hand housing prices across 70 cities was -6.1%, with first, second, and third-tier cities showing declines of -3.0%, -5.8%, and -6.7% respectively, indicating a narrowing of the decline for some tiers [19][22]. Regional Performance - In June 2025, Shanghai led the new housing market with a MoM increase of +0.4% and a YoY increase of +6.0%. Among the 35 key cities, only Shanghai, Hangzhou, and Taiyuan saw YoY increases in new housing prices [26][27]. - The second-hand housing prices in June across 35 cities showed a decline, with only Xining experiencing a MoM increase of +0.1%. The overall trend indicates a consistent decline in second-hand housing prices since early 2024 [26][27]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on strong credit real estate companies that are well-positioned to meet the needs of improvement-oriented customers, such as Greentown China, China Merchants Shekou, and China Overseas Development [8][26]. - It also recommends companies benefiting from both residential and commercial real estate recovery, such as China Resources Land and Longfor Group, as well as high-quality property management firms under the "Good House, Good Service" policy [8][26].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors [2][36]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant decline in both new and second-hand housing transactions, with new home sales in 34 key cities dropping by 50.1% week-on-week [2][3]. - The report anticipates further policy support to stabilize the real estate market, with potential measures including mortgage rate cuts and increased supply of quality housing [2][36]. Industry Data Summary New Home Transactions - New home sales in 34 key cities totaled 1.983 million square meters, a week-on-week decrease of 50.1% [2][3]. - Year-on-year, new home sales in July decreased by 16.0%, with first and second-tier cities down by 15.4% and third and fourth-tier cities down by 23.4% [4][11]. Second-Hand Home Transactions - Second-hand home sales in 13 key cities reached 1.078 million square meters, a week-on-week decline of 6.6% [11]. - Year-to-date, second-hand home sales have increased by 8.8% compared to the previous year [11]. Inventory and Supply - In 15 cities, 880,000 square meters of new homes were launched, with a sales-to-launch ratio of 0.71, indicating ongoing inventory reduction [20][21]. - The average months of inventory for new homes is 19.6 months, reflecting a slight increase [20]. Policy and News Tracking - The National Development and Reform Commission is increasing investment in key areas of new urbanization, indicating a proactive approach to stimulate the housing market [30][31]. - Local governments are implementing targeted policies, such as restrictions on the registration of small property rights houses in Guangdong and new housing subsidy programs in Wuxi [30][31]. Company Dynamics - Several real estate companies are actively engaging in financing and capital market operations, with notable activities including Shenzhen Tianjian Group's issuance of medium-term notes worth 650 million yuan [36]. - Companies like Beike-W are also engaging in share buybacks, indicating confidence in their market position [36]. Sector Performance - The real estate sector outperformed the market, with the SW Real Estate Index rising by 6.12% compared to a 0.82% increase in the CSI 300 Index [2][36]. - The average price-to-earnings ratios for major A-share real estate companies for 2025 and 2026 are projected at 14.7 and 13.1 times, respectively [2].

Core Insights - The property management industry is experiencing a significant trend of companies voluntarily exiting projects due to various operational challenges and financial pressures [1][3][5] - The turnover rate of residential property management has increased from 1.7% in 2021 to 3.3% in 2024, indicating a growing willingness among homeowners to change property management companies [7][10] Group 1: Company Exits - China Overseas Property announced its exit from the Ezhou Shuangchuang Star community by August 31, 2025, due to low occupancy rates and high unpaid fees, with a total outstanding amount of 595,900 yuan as of January 2025 [1][4] - Jin Ke Service will withdraw from Chongqing Hengchun Phoenix City by August 31, 2025, citing reduced property fees and legacy issues from developers leading to losses [1][4] - Longfor Property is set to exit Shanghai Su Di Chun Xiao community by August 2025 due to unresolved historical issues causing operational risks [1][4] Group 2: Industry Trends - A report by CRIC shows that from 2021 to 2024, the residential property turnover rate has increased, suggesting a trend where approximately 20,000 residential communities change property management annually [2][7] - Many property management companies, including Wanwu Cloud, Shimao Service, and others, have publicly announced their termination and exit from various projects in their 2024 annual reports [2][3] - The ongoing dissatisfaction among homeowners regarding property services has led to a rise in the number of homeowners seeking to change property management companies [10][11] Group 3: Financial Pressures - The primary reasons for property management companies exiting projects include rising costs, declining collection rates, and insufficient growth in value-added services [5][6] - In 2024, Wanwu Cloud exited 53 residential projects, impacting a saturated income of 286 million yuan, while Shimao Service and others also reported significant areas of project exits [6][5] - Companies are increasingly focusing on high-quality growth, prioritizing high-capacity cities and quality clients, as evidenced by China Overseas Property's increase in new contract amounts in core urban areas [5][6]