从资金流向上来看，当日农商行板块主力资金净流入9922.62万元，游资资金净流出6846.34万元，散户资 金净流出3076.28万元。农商行板块个股资金流向见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 主力净流入(元) | 主力净占比 游资净流入 (元) | | 游资净占比 散户净流入(元) | | 散户净占比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 601077 論农商行 | | 8820.26万 | 16.26% | -7767.31万 | -14.32% | -1052.94万 | -1.94% | | 601860 | 紫金银行 | 1762.72万 | 9.60% | -945.55万 | -5.15% | -817.18万 | -4.45% | | 601128 常熟银行 | | 1351.48万 | 6.16% | 48.55万 | 4 0.22% | -1400.03万 | -6.38% | | 002839 张家港行 | | 468.53万 | 2.83% | 332.46万 | 2.01% | -800.99万 | -4.84% | ...

Group 1 - The core conclusion is that high-quality cyclical stocks are expected to show a fundamental turning point, which is key to their potential for excess returns. Currently, banks with a high proportion of retail exposure are still under pressure, but signs indicate that the pressure on quality stocks is easing. This is due to the gradual clearance of retail non-performing loans and the expectation that net interest margins will stabilize first [3][5][29] - The report predicts that the retail non-performing loan generation for listed banks will remain high until the second half of 2026, but quality banks are expected to clear their non-performing loans ahead of the industry. For quality regional banks with strong risk management capabilities, the turning point for retail non-performing loans may be approaching [3][8][18] - The net interest margin for some quality regional banks is expected to stabilize first due to a noticeable narrowing in the decline of new loan interest rates and the high proportion of long-term savings deposits, which provides greater room for optimization [3][22][29] Group 2 - The macro narrative of anti-involution is strengthening, and long-term economic optimism is increasing, which enhances the winning probability of cyclical stocks. Although the current economic fundamentals remain weak, the long-term optimistic expectations have been reinforced. The report suggests that further demand-side policies are needed to translate expectations into reality, which is a significant factor in recent market adjustments [4][27][29] - The report recommends selecting undervalued high-quality cyclical stocks for excess returns in the second half of the year, while high-dividend stocks still hold significant value but are unlikely to yield excess returns. The performance of individual stocks is expected to diverge, making stock selection crucial [29][31] - The report highlights specific banks such as Ningbo Bank, Changshu Bank, Changsha Bank, Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank, and China Merchants Bank as key recommendations for investors looking for quality cyclical stocks with potential for early recovery in fundamentals [29][31]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight (Maintain)" [2] Core Insights - The new bond value-added tax regulation is expected to have a static impact of approximately 0.4% on annual revenue and 0.95% on profit for listed banks [6][14] - The report emphasizes the importance of banks enhancing their trading capabilities in the medium to long term due to the new tax implications [6][11] - The investment recommendation focuses on the stability and sustainability of the banking sector, highlighting two main stock selection strategies: regional banks with strong certainty and large banks with high dividend yields [6][18] Summary by Sections Background - The report discusses the need to adjust fund allocation, optimize the bond market pricing mechanism, and deepen fiscal and tax system reforms [10][11] Impact on Bank Behavior - In the short term, banks can mitigate the impact of increased tax costs through the realization of floating profits in OCI accounts, while in the long term, there will be a greater emphasis on improving trading capabilities [11][12] Impact on Bank Performance - The static assessment indicates that the increase in tax costs will affect annual revenue by about 0.4%, with a projected increase in tax costs of approximately 232 billion yuan for the next year [14][15] - The cumulative tax cost increase over five years is estimated to be around 1,439 billion yuan, representing about 2.7% of the projected revenue for 2025 [14][15] Investment Recommendations - The report continues to recommend focusing on bank sector stocks, particularly emphasizing regional banks with strong advantages and large banks known for their high dividends [18][19]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the banking sector, expecting the industry index to outperform the benchmark index by over 5% in the next 3-6 months [24]. Core Insights - The introduction of new VAT regulations on bond interest income is expected to favor older bonds, as they remain exempt from VAT, thus enhancing their attractiveness and potentially driving up their prices [2][3]. - The banking sector's dividend yield is projected to be around 3.8% in 2025, significantly higher than the 10-year government bond yield of approximately 1.7%, highlighting the advantages of high-dividend assets in a declining interest rate environment [3][8]. - The report emphasizes the importance of strategic allocation within the banking sector, particularly focusing on state-owned banks and select regional banks with strong asset quality and dividend policies [8]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The report notes a decline in major indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.94% and the ChiNext Index down by 0.74% during the week of July 28 to August 3, 2025 [7]. - The average daily trading volume in the A-share market was 11,292.71 billion yuan, reflecting a decrease of 7.96% compared to the previous week [7]. Bond Market Impact - The new VAT regulations apply only to newly issued government bonds, local bonds, and financial bonds, while existing bonds continue to enjoy tax exemptions, making them more favorable for banks [2]. - The proportion of government and policy financial bonds held by major banks exceeds 70%, indicating a strong focus on these assets [2]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a diversified investment strategy focusing on high-dividend banks, particularly large state-owned banks and stable joint-stock banks like China Merchants Bank and CITIC Bank [8]. - It also highlights the potential for improved return on equity (ROE) in undervalued joint-stock banks, recommending attention to banks like Shanghai Pudong Development Bank [8]. Company Earnings Forecasts - The report provides earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for key banks, with recommendations for several banks based on their projected performance [9]. - For instance, China Merchants Bank is expected to have an EPS of 5.86 yuan in 2025 with a PE ratio of 7.58, indicating a strong investment case [9].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [2] Core Insights - Since 2025, banks have shown a new characteristic of using short-term loans to replace bills for credit expansion, with significant seasonal growth in short-term loans [4][14] - The volatility of bill rates has decreased, and there is a notable inversion between short and long-term rates [24][34] - Investment recommendations focus on state-owned banks with controllable retail risks, joint-stock banks with high safety margins, and city and rural commercial banks with strong profit growth potential [7][36] Summary by Sections 1. New Characteristics of Credit Expansion - In 2025, banks have not prominently used bills to boost loans, but short-term loans have seen significant growth, with new additions of 1.44 trillion and 1.16 trillion yuan in March and June, respectively, exceeding historical averages [14][18] - Bill financing saw a notable contraction in June, with a decrease of 4.109 trillion yuan, significantly higher than the three-year average [14][18] 2. Decreased Volatility of Bill Rates - In the first half of 2025, the 6M national stock bill discount rate fluctuated between 0.98% and 1.60%, showing reduced volatility compared to 170 basis points in 2023 and 105 basis points in 2024 [24][29] - The weakening of the credit attribute of bills is attributed to banks preferring short-term loans for credit scale, leading to a lack of significant fluctuations in bill rates [24][29] 3. Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks include state-owned banks with controllable retail risks, such as China Construction Bank and Agricultural Bank of China [36] - Joint-stock banks with high safety margins and signs of clearing existing risks, such as CITIC Bank and China Merchants Bank, are also recommended [36] - City and rural commercial banks with growth potential and strong provisioning capabilities, including Jiangsu Bank and Hangzhou Bank, are highlighted [36]

FF301 | 2. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | A | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | | 否 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 601077 | 說明 | | | | | | | | | | 法定/註冊股份數目 | | | 面值 | | 法定/註冊股本 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 8,843,663,959 | RMB | | 1 RMB | | 8,843,663,959 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | | | | RMB | | | | 本月底結存 | | | 8,843,663,959 | RMB | | 1 RMB | | 8,843,663,959 | 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 公司名稱: 重慶農村商業銀行股份有限公司 呈交日期: 2025年8月1日 I. 法定/註冊股本變動 股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 截至月份: 2025年7月31日 狀態: 新提交 | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股 ...

FF301 股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 截至月份: 2025年7月31日 狀態: 新提交 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 公司名稱: 重慶農村商業銀行股份有限公司 呈交日期: 2025年8月1日 I. 法定/註冊股本變動 | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | H | | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | | 是 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 03618 | 說明 | | | | | | | | | | | 法定/註冊股份數目 | | | 面值 | | | 法定/註冊股本 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 2,513,336,041 | RMB | | 1 | RMB | | 2,513,336,041 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | | | | | RMB | | | | 本月底結存 | | | 2,513,336,041 | RMB | | 1 | RMB | | 2,513,336,041 | | ...

| 代码 | 名称 | 主力净流入(元) | 主力净占比 游资净流入(元) | | 游资净占比 散户净流入(元) | | 散户净占比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 600908 | 无锡银行 | 1350.54万 | 16.10% | -1062.60万 | -12.67% | -287.94万 | -3.43% | | 601860 | 紫金银行 | 1115.48万 | 6.01% | 377.82万 | 2.04% | -1493.30万 | -8.04% | | 601128 | 常熟银行 | 789.98万 | 4.44% | -371.05万 | -2.08% | -418.92万 | -2.35% | | 002958 青农商行 | | 718.15万 | 4.32% | -87.24万 | -0.52% | -630.91万 | -3.80% | | 002807 | 江阴银行 | 472.97万 | 4.74% | -663.01万 | -6.64% | 190.03万 | 1.90% | | 601528 瑞丰银 ...

Key Points - The top three companies with net inflows from southbound funds are Xiaomi Group-W (01810) with 1.665 billion, Tencent Holdings (00700) with 830 million, and Alibaba-W (09988) with 747 million [1] - The companies with the highest net outflows are Pop Mart (09992) with -354 million, China Life (02628) with -351 million, and Kingsoft Cloud (03896) with -300 million [1] - In terms of net inflow ratio, Qin Port Co. (03369) leads with 78.68%, followed by Reshaping Energy (02570) with 76.94%, and Cang Port Railway (02169) with 65.01% [1] - The companies with the highest net outflow ratios include Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank (03618) at -61.37%, Bank of China Aviation Leasing (02588) at -53.31%, and Swire Properties (01972) at -45.99% [1] Net Inflow Rankings - Xiaomi Group-W (01810) had a net inflow of 1.665 billion, representing a 12.37% increase [2] - Tencent Holdings (00700) saw a net inflow of 830 million, with an 8.94% increase [2] - Alibaba-W (09988) recorded a net inflow of 747 million, reflecting a 10.60% increase [2] - The highest net inflow was observed in CSPC Pharmaceutical Group (01093) with 654 million and a 21.81% increase [2] Net Outflow Rankings - Pop Mart (09992) experienced a net outflow of -354 million, with a -10.47% decrease [2] - China Life (02628) had a net outflow of -351 million, reflecting a -11.90% decrease [2] - Kingsoft Cloud (03896) recorded a net outflow of -300 million, with a -24.18% decrease [2] - Meituan-W (03690) also saw a significant outflow of -291 million, representing a -5.32% decrease [2] Net Inflow Ratio Rankings - Qin Port Co. (03369) leads with a net inflow ratio of 78.68% and a net inflow of 340,000 [3] - Reshaping Energy (02570) follows with a net inflow ratio of 76.94% and a net inflow of 10.53 million [3] - Cang Port Railway (02169) has a net inflow ratio of 65.01% with a net inflow of 4.3967 million [3] - Other notable companies include Meizhong Jiahe (02453) with a 61.71% net inflow ratio [3] Net Outflow Ratio Rankings - Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank (03618) has the highest net outflow ratio at -61.37% with a net outflow of -1.04 billion [3] - Bank of China Aviation Leasing (02588) follows with a net outflow ratio of -53.31% and a net outflow of -15.3728 million [3] - Swire Properties (01972) has a net outflow ratio of -45.99% with a net outflow of -29.4662 million [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent research conducted by QuanGuo Fund on the listed company YuNong Commercial Bank, highlighting the fund's performance and the bank's competitive advantages in the retail banking sector. Group 1: Fund Performance - QuanGuo Fund was established on February 8, 2022, and currently manages assets totaling 16.396 billion yuan across six funds with five fund managers [1] - The best-performing fund in the past year is QuanGuo XuYuan Three-Year Holding Mixed A (016709), which recorded a return of 31.73% [1][2] - As of July 25, 2025, the top six non-monetary funds' performance over the past year includes returns of 31.73% for fund 016709 and 31.21% for fund 016710 [2] Group 2: Competitive Advantages of YuNong Commercial Bank - The bank's core competitive advantage lies in its extensive service network, providing "zero-distance" financial services, ensuring coverage in all districts and counties [1] - The bank focuses on rural finance, maintaining a strong presence in county and rural areas, with a network that ensures service availability at the grassroots level [1] - The bank adopts a customer-centric service philosophy, continuously optimizing its product system and enhancing customer experience through digital transformation and professional service teams [1] Group 3: Risk Management and Revenue Stability - As of the end of 2024, the bank reported a 0% non-performing loan ratio in the real estate sector, indicating manageable overall risk [3] - The bank aims to optimize its credit structure and enhance risk management through digital transformation and data integration, focusing on pre-loan investigations and post-loan warnings [3] - The bank plans to balance non-interest income and interest income stability by diversifying non-interest income sources and expanding investment trading opportunities [3][4]