Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic industry is facing a significant policy shift as the export tax rebate for photovoltaic products is fully canceled, marking the end of a supportive policy environment and leading to a historical turning point for the industry [1][2]. Policy Changes - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced the cancellation of the export tax rebate for photovoltaic products starting April 1, 2026, transitioning the industry into a "no rebate subsidy" phase [2]. - The export tax rebate policy, which began in October 2013, has seen a gradual decline in rebate rates, dropping from 13% to 9% for photovoltaic silicon wafers, batteries, and modules as of December 1, 2024 [2]. Market Reaction - The market reacted sharply to these policy changes, with the sentiment in the polysilicon market plummeting, leading to significant declines in polysilicon futures and related stocks such as Daqo New Energy and Tongwei Co., Ltd. [1][3]. - On January 8, polysilicon futures dropped by 9%, followed by an 8% decline on January 9, reaching a low of 50,080 yuan/ton [3]. Industry Self-Regulation - The industry self-regulation phase has entered a new stage, with the State Administration for Market Regulation holding discussions with major companies regarding monopoly risks and requiring them to avoid agreements on production capacity, sales prices, and market division [3][4]. - The self-regulation efforts that began in 2025 had initially helped stabilize prices, but the recent regulatory changes indicate a shift away from relying on such practices [4]. Price Dynamics - Despite rising prices for upstream polysilicon and silicon wafers, downstream module prices have not followed suit, leading to squeezed profit margins for developers [5][6]. - The average transaction price for N-type polysilicon was reported at 59,200 yuan/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 9.83%, while N-type G10L monocrystalline silicon wafers saw a price increase of 9.17% [5]. Demand Outlook - The first quarter is traditionally a weak demand season for the photovoltaic industry, with both domestic and overseas markets showing signs of slowing order execution and limited visibility for new orders [7]. - The overall market demand has been declining, and the anticipated price increases for components face significant resistance due to low demand [6][7]. Market Valuation - The shift in policy is prompting a "value reassessment" in the capital market for the photovoltaic sector, with significant sell-offs observed in the stock market [8]. - From January 8 to 9, the photovoltaic sector experienced a notable decline, with polysilicon futures dropping by 10.2% and major companies like Tongwei Co., Ltd. and GCL-Poly Energy Corp. seeing substantial stock price decreases [8]. Investment Opportunities - Despite the challenges, the photovoltaic industry's overall valuation is at historical lows, which may present attractive investment opportunities compared to other sectors [8]. - Companies with advantages in technology iteration, cost control, and global channel layout are expected to be identified as potential investment opportunities amidst the changing landscape [8].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a significant policy shift in the photovoltaic (PV) industry, marked by the cancellation of export VAT rebates and the cessation of industry self-regulation, indicating a historical turning point for the sector [2][3]. - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced the cancellation of export VAT rebates for PV products starting April 1, 2026, transitioning the industry into a "no rebate subsidy" phase [3]. - The cancellation of the export VAT rebate follows a period of declining export prices and increased competition in overseas markets, leading to substantial losses across the industry [3][4]. Group 2 - The market reacted sharply to these changes, with significant declines in the prices of polysilicon futures and related stocks, indicating a loss of investor confidence [4][8]. - The recent discussions between the State Administration for Market Regulation and leading companies in the PV sector, including Tongwei Co. and Daqo New Energy, focused on addressing monopoly risks and enforcing compliance with new regulations [4][5]. - Despite rising prices for upstream materials like polysilicon and silicon wafers, downstream component prices have not followed suit, leading to squeezed margins for developers [5][6]. Group 3 - The first quarter is traditionally a slow season for the PV industry, and the anticipated price increases for components face resistance due to weak demand [6][7]. - The shift in policy is prompting a reevaluation of the PV sector's value in the capital markets, with significant sell-offs observed in the stock prices of major companies [7][8]. - Analysts suggest that while the overall valuation of the PV industry is at historical lows, the uncertainty surrounding future profitability and market dynamics poses challenges for attracting investment [8].

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic industry in China is facing a significant policy shift with the complete cancellation of export VAT rebates and the halting of industry self-regulation, marking a historical turning point for the sector [3][4]. Policy Changes - Starting April 1, 2026, the export VAT rebate for photovoltaic products will be fully canceled, transitioning the industry into a "no rebate subsidy" phase [4]. - The export VAT rebate policy, initiated in October 2013, has seen a gradual decline in rebate rates, dropping from 13% to 9% as of December 1, 2024, indicating a move towards the cancellation of rebates [4]. Market Reactions - The market reacted sharply to these policy changes, with the price of multicrystalline silicon contracts dropping significantly, and major companies like Daqo New Energy and Tongwei Co. experiencing substantial stock declines [3][5]. - On January 8 and 9, 2026, the main contract for multicrystalline silicon futures fell by 9% and 8% respectively, reaching a low of 50,080 yuan/ton [5][11]. Industry Self-Regulation - The recent discussions between the State Administration for Market Regulation and leading companies in the silicon material sector indicate a shift away from previous self-regulatory practices, which had aimed to stabilize prices through coordinated production and sales strategies [5][6]. - The new regulatory environment prohibits companies from coordinating on production capacity, sales volumes, and pricing, which could lead to increased market volatility [5][6]. Price Dynamics - Despite rising prices for upstream materials like silicon and silicon wafers, the prices for downstream components have not followed suit, squeezing profit margins for developers [9]. - The average transaction price for N-type multicrystalline silicon was reported at 59,200 yuan/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 9.83%, while N-type G10L monocrystalline silicon wafers saw a price increase of 9.17% [9]. Demand and Market Outlook - The first quarter is traditionally a low-demand season for the photovoltaic industry, complicating the acceptance of price increases by end-users [10]. - The overall market demand has been weakening, with a decline in order visibility for both domestic and overseas markets as the year-end approaches [10]. Capital Market Impact - The shift in policy is prompting a "value reassessment" in the capital markets for the photovoltaic sector, leading to significant sell-offs and pressure on valuations [11]. - From January 8 to 9, 2026, the photovoltaic sector experienced a notable sell-off, with major companies like Tongwei Co. and GCL-Poly Energy facing significant stock price declines [11].

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic industry is undergoing significant changes in 2026 due to the cancellation of export VAT rebates and the halting of industry self-regulation, leading to a historical turning point for the sector [1][2]. Policy Changes - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced the cancellation of export VAT rebates for photovoltaic products starting April 1, 2026, marking the transition to a "no rebate subsidy" phase [2]. - The export VAT rebate policy for the photovoltaic industry began in October 2013, with rates gradually decreasing over the past two years, culminating in a drop from 13% to 9% in December 2024 [2]. Market Reactions - The market reacted sharply to these policy changes, with the price of polysilicon futures dropping significantly, indicating a loss of confidence among investors [3][8]. - On January 8 and 9, polysilicon futures contracts fell by 9% and 8%, respectively, with related stocks also experiencing substantial declines [3][8]. Industry Self-Regulation - The recent discussions between the State Administration for Market Regulation and major companies in the photovoltaic sector signal a shift away from previous self-regulatory practices, which had aimed to stabilize prices [3][4]. - Companies are now prohibited from coordinating on production capacity, sales prices, and other market behaviors, which could lead to increased volatility in pricing [3][4]. Price Dynamics - Despite rising prices for upstream materials like polysilicon and silicon wafers, downstream component prices have not followed suit, leading to squeezed margins for developers [5][6]. - The average transaction price for n-type polysilicon rose to 59,200 yuan/ton, a 9.83% increase week-on-week, while the average price for N-type G10L monocrystalline silicon wafers increased by 9.17% [5]. Demand Outlook - The first quarter is traditionally a slow season for the photovoltaic industry, with both domestic and international demand showing signs of weakness [7]. - The overall market demand has been declining, with new orders becoming less visible, further complicating the pricing landscape [7]. Market Valuation - The shift in policy is prompting a reevaluation of the photovoltaic sector's value in the capital markets, with significant sell-offs observed in early January [8]. - From January 8 to 9, the photovoltaic sector saw a drop of 10.2% in polysilicon futures, with major companies like Tongwei Co. and Daqo New Energy experiencing notable declines in stock prices [8].

Core Viewpoint - The multi-crystalline silicon futures market is experiencing a downward trend, with significant price drops and declines in the stock prices of leading domestic companies in the sector [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of January 9, the main 2605 contract for multi-crystalline silicon closed at 51,300 yuan/ton, down 8.11% [1]. - Major domestic companies such as Tongwei Co., Ltd. (600438.SH), Daqo New Energy (688303.SH), and GCL-Poly Energy (03800.HK) saw their stock prices drop by 3.83%, 6.10%, and 7.02% respectively [1]. Group 2: Production and Pricing Trends - The production of multi-crystalline silicon is projected to decrease by 28.4% in 2025, with current spot prices having rebounded over 70% from historical lows recorded in June 2025 [2]. - Factors contributing to the recent price increases include a continuous reduction in the operating rate of silicon material, rising prices in downstream silicon wafers and battery segments, and a supportive procurement willingness from the component end due to existing orders [2]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The fundamental issue in the photovoltaic industry is not supply but rather a lack of demand, with domestic installations declining due to regulatory impacts [3]. - Data from the National Energy Administration indicates that the utilization rate of photovoltaic power generation in China was 94.9% from January to October 2025, a decrease of 2.2 percentage points year-on-year, indicating increasing consumption pressure [3]. - The market is facing challenges in balancing the supply-demand equation, with concerns about how to achieve industry-wide collaboration to address these issues [3][4]. Group 4: Industry Collaboration - The chairman of Trina Solar (688599.SH) emphasized the need for horizontal collaboration across various segments of the supply chain, including silicon materials, wafers, batteries, and components, to achieve profitability across the entire industry [4]. - There is a call for both horizontal and vertical collaboration within the industry to effectively manage internal competition and ensure all segments can achieve profitability [4].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the polysilicon production in 2025 decreased by 28.4% year-on-year, but the industry has not yet emerged from an oversupply situation due to demand contraction [1][2] - As of January 9, 2026, multiple polysilicon futures contracts continued to decline, with the main contract closing at 51,300 yuan/ton, down 8.11% [1] - Leading domestic polysilicon companies saw significant stock price declines, with Tongwei Co., Ltd. down 3.83%, Daqo New Energy down 6.10%, and GCL-Poly Energy down 7.02% [1] Group 2 - The polysilicon market had previously shown positive developments in production and pricing due to the "anti-involution" trend in the photovoltaic sector [2] - The current spot price of silicon materials has rebounded over 70% from its historical low in June 2025 [2] - Three factors are driving the price increase at the beginning of 2026: reduced operating rates in silicon material production, rising prices in downstream silicon wafers and battery segments, and a certain tolerance for price increases in the component sector supported by existing orders [2][3] Group 3 - The fundamental issue in the photovoltaic industry remains a supply-demand imbalance, with supply contraction lagging behind demand decline [3] - Domestic installations have been in a downward trend due to the impact of policy document "No. 136," with a reported photovoltaic power generation utilization rate of 94.9% from January to October 2025, down 2.2 percentage points year-on-year [3] - The market is questioning the so-called "industry self-discipline" as merely a price increase strategy, highlighting the need for coordination across the entire industry chain to address the challenges of weak downstream demand [3][4] Group 4 - The chairman of Trina Solar emphasized the need for horizontal collaboration among various segments of the industry, including silicon materials, wafers, batteries, and components, to achieve profitability across the entire supply chain [4] - There is a call for both horizontal and vertical collaboration within the industry to effectively manage internal competition and achieve the goals of industry governance [4]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley's report indicates that the National Market Supervision Administration's statement regarding the China Photovoltaic Industry Association's proposal to establish a consolidation fund and allocate industry production quotas violates antitrust laws, which negatively impacts the industry's anti-involution initiative. However, the bank views this event as an adjustment rather than a reversal due to China's push against "involution" [1][5]. Group 1 - The report anticipates multiple potential outcomes, including government agencies managing production quotas or higher-level departments setting conditions for quota exemptions [1][5]. - In the worst-case scenario, there could be chaotic involution consolidation within the industry [1][5]. - Companies with significant net cash reserves, such as Daqo New Energy (DQ.US), and the lowest cash cost producer, GCL-Poly Energy (03800), are expected to emerge as the ultimate winners in this situation [1][5]. Group 2 - Morgan Stanley maintains an "overweight" rating on Daqo New Energy with a target price of $38 and on GCL-Poly Energy with a target price of HKD 1.7 [1][5].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the proposal by the China Photovoltaic Industry Association to establish a consolidation fund and allocate industry production quotas is seen as a violation of antitrust laws, which may negatively impact stock prices, but is viewed as an adjustment rather than a reversal of the "anti-involution" initiative promoted by China [1] - Morgan Stanley anticipates multiple potential outcomes, including government intervention in managing production quotas or higher-level departments setting conditions for quota exemptions [1] - In the worst-case scenario, there could be chaotic involution consolidation, but companies with significant net cash reserves, such as Daqo New Energy (DQ.US) and low-cost producer GCL-Poly Energy (03800), are expected to emerge as winners in this situation [1] Group 2 - Morgan Stanley maintains an "overweight" rating on Daqo New Energy with a target price of $38 and on GCL-Poly Energy with a target price of HKD 1.7 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The solar photovoltaic (PV) industry faces significant challenges following an antitrust warning regarding the consolidation of polysilicon production capacity, raising uncertainties about the future of self-regulatory actions in the industry [1][6]. Group 1: Antitrust Warning and Industry Response - On January 6, major polysilicon companies were summoned by the State Administration for Market Regulation (SAMR) due to allegations of price manipulation under the guise of industry self-regulation [1]. - The SAMR issued clear rectification requirements, prohibiting agreements on capacity, utilization rates, production volumes, and sales prices among companies [1][4]. - The meeting highlighted multiple complaints received since July 2025, accusing companies of controlling production and market segmentation based on investment ratios [1][4]. Group 2: Market Impact and Price Fluctuations - Following the news, polysilicon futures contracts hit the daily limit down, with a 9% drop on January 8, while major polysilicon stocks experienced declines, with GCL-Poly Energy falling over 7% [2]. - The average prices for polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and modules are projected to increase by 38.9%, 2.2%, 0.4%, and 2.3% respectively by November 2025 [2]. - Despite a slowdown in market transactions, many polysilicon companies raised new order prices to over 65,000 yuan per ton, significantly above the market average [2]. Group 3: Industry Consolidation and Future Outlook - The establishment of Beijing Guanghe Qiancheng Technology Co., aimed at consolidating polysilicon resources, has raised concerns about potential monopolistic practices [3][5]. - The platform is designed to operate under a dual-track model, referencing successful experiences from other industries to stabilize prices [3]. - Industry leaders emphasize the need for a balanced profit distribution across the entire solar value chain, as current high profits in polysilicon are unsustainable if downstream sectors continue to incur losses [3][5]. Group 4: Challenges Ahead - The self-regulatory actions in the industry are now facing unprecedented challenges, with the cancellation of monthly meetings aimed at addressing overcapacity and price control until rectification measures are completed [5][6]. - The uncertainty surrounding the path forward for coordinated production control and the exit of outdated capacities is increasing, complicating the industry's efforts to stabilize [6].

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market showed mixed performance with the Hang Seng Index at 26,158.21, up 0.02%, while the Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 0.06% and the National Enterprises Index rose by 0.04% [2] Commercial Aerospace Sector - The commercial aerospace sector is gaining momentum, with Asia Pacific Satellite seeing a surge of over 15% [1] - Domestic companies such as Blue Arrow Aerospace, Tianbing Technology, Xinghe Power, and Interstellar Glory are preparing for IPOs, marking 2026 as a significant year for private rocket enterprises in China [1] Gold Sector - Gold stocks are performing well, with Shandong Gold rising over 6% amid geopolitical risks and expectations of interest rate cuts supporting gold prices [3][4] - Morgan Stanley predicts that gold prices could reach $4,800 per ounce by Q4 2026, driven by declining interest rates and increased buying from central banks and funds [3] Solar Energy Sector - The solar energy sector is facing challenges, with GCL-Poly Energy dropping over 8% following a meeting with the Beijing market regulatory authority addressing monopoly risks and requiring corrective actions from companies [4][5] - Other solar companies also experienced declines, including Kamda Energy and Xinyi Solar, which fell by 4.35% and 3.10% respectively [5] New Listings - Three new stocks were listed today, with Rebo Bio-B rising over 28%, MINIMAX increasing by over 78%, and Jinxun Resources up by 22% [5]