Core Viewpoint - Cathay Pacific Haitong maintains an "overweight" rating for GCL-Poly Energy (03800), projecting BPS for 2025-2027 to be 1.17, 1.22, and 1.28 CNY per share respectively, with a target price of 1.59 CNY based on a 1.2x PB for 2026 [1][2] Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, GCL-Poly expects profits from its photovoltaic materials business to be approximately 9.6 billion CNY, including a post-tax gain of about 6.4 billion CNY from the sale of an affiliate [1] - The adjusted EBITDA for the same period is estimated to be around 14.1 billion CNY [1] Group 2: Market Trends - The average selling price of granular silicon in Q3 2025 was 42.12 CNY/kg, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 9.2 CNY/kg [1] - As of October 15, the average price of granular silicon reached 50 CNY/kg, indicating potential upward movement compared to Q3 2025 prices [1] - Expectations for Q4 2025 and 2026 suggest that prices will likely remain stable with a potential upward trend, enhancing profitability in the granular silicon business [1] Group 3: Cost and Production - The average cash production cost for granular silicon in Q3 2025 was 24.16 CNY/kg, showing a decrease of 1.15 CNY/kg from the previous quarter [2] - GCL-Poly's production capacity is aligned with national energy consumption standards, which are set to be enforced by September 2025 [2] Group 4: Strategic Moves - The company announced plans to use part of the proceeds from a recent subscription to acquire companies or assets within mainland China to increase granular silicon production capacity [2] - Industry consolidation is viewed as beneficial for achieving supply-demand balance, which may further stabilize and enhance prices [2]

Core Insights - The top three companies by Hong Kong Stock Connect holding ratios are China Telecom (71.22%), COSCO Shipping Energy (70.13%), and GCL-Poly Energy (69.57%) [1] - In the last five trading days, the largest increases in holding amounts were seen in China Mobile (+1.929 billion), Tracker Fund of Hong Kong (+1.897 billion), and InnoCare Pharma (+1.751 billion) [1] - Conversely, Alibaba (-3.254 billion), SMIC (-2.330 billion), and Laopuhuang (-0.855 billion) experienced the largest decreases in holding amounts [2] Group 1: Hong Kong Stock Connect Holding Ratios - China Telecom (00728) has a holding ratio of 71.22% with 9.884 billion shares [1] - COSCO Shipping Energy (01138) has a holding ratio of 70.13% with 909 million shares [1] - GCL-Poly Energy (01330) has a holding ratio of 69.57% with 281 million shares [1] - Other notable companies include China Shenhua (67.74%), Kaisa Group (67.61%), and Xinte Energy (65.33%) [1] Group 2: Recent Increases in Holdings - China Mobile (00941) saw an increase of 1.929 billion in holding amount and 22.8427 million shares [1] - Tracker Fund of Hong Kong (02800) increased by 1.897 billion and 71.8145 million shares [1] - InnoCare Pharma (09606) increased by 1.751 billion and 5.5669 million shares [1] - Other companies with significant increases include Meituan-W (+1.592 billion) and Xiaomi Group-W (+1.105 billion) [1] Group 3: Recent Decreases in Holdings - Alibaba-W (09988) experienced a decrease of 3.254 billion in holding amount and 20.0969 million shares [2] - SMIC (00981) saw a decrease of 2.330 billion and 31.1261 million shares [2] - Laopuhuang (06181) decreased by 0.855 billion and 1.2141 million shares [2] - Other companies with notable decreases include Huahong Semiconductor (-0.792 billion) and Jiangxi Copper (-0.651 billion) [2]

Core Viewpoint - The company has achieved a significant turnaround in profitability, reporting a net profit of approximately 960 million yuan in Q3 2025, marking its first quarterly profit after five consecutive quarters of losses [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company's photovoltaic segment generated a profit of about 960 million yuan, including a profit of 640 million yuan from the sale of an associate [1]. - The average production cash cost for granular silicon in Q3 2025 was 24.2 yuan/kg, a decrease of 1.2 yuan/kg from the previous quarter [2]. - The average selling price of silicon materials in Q3 2025 was 37.3 yuan/kg (excluding tax), an increase of 8.1 yuan/kg from the previous quarter, resulting in an average production cash profit of 13.1 yuan/kg, which expanded by 9.3 yuan/kg [2]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The "anti-involution" policy in the photovoltaic industry is expected to accelerate the elimination of outdated production capacity, with the company's market share increasing from 14.58% in 2024 to 24.32% in the first half of 2025 [2]. - The National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation have been drafting a revised price law to guide the pricing order in the photovoltaic industry, contributing to a stabilization and mild recovery of silicon material prices [2]. Group 3: Strategic Initiatives - The company has entered into a strategic financing agreement with InfiniCapital, raising approximately 5.446 billion HKD (about 4.98 billion yuan) through a private placement, aimed at structural adjustments in industry capacity and enhancing its capital structure [2]. - The remaining funds from the financing will be used to supplement working capital and repay loans, further strengthening the company's financial stability [2]. Group 4: Investment Outlook - The company maintains an "outperform" rating, with expectations of a profitability turning point driven by the ongoing "anti-involution" policy improving supply-demand dynamics [3]. - Projected net profits for 2025-2027 are -900 million, 2.14 billion, and 4.02 billion yuan, with corresponding EPS of -0.03, 0.07, and 0.13 yuan, and dynamic PE ratios of 16.9 and 9.0 for 2026-2027 [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The polysilicon industry faces significant supply - side pressure with large overall supply, partial enterprise production cuts falling short of expectations, and an increase in the number of operating enterprises leading to inventory accumulation. The demand side is relatively weak, with poor demand in the downstream photovoltaic industry, lower component tender prices, and postponed centralized projects, resulting in reduced demand for polysilicon from silicon wafers. Although N - type silicon materials maintain a certain premium, the price of ordinary materials is approaching the cost line, and the industry's overall gross profit margin is narrowing. International markets have mixed impacts, with high inventory in Europe suppressing import demand, and although the US tariff policy loosens to drive energy storage system exports, it can't fully offset the negative impact of the European market. However, emerging markets like the Middle East and Latin America show a surge in demand, buffering the decline in the demand side. If the supply pressure continues to increase, high inventory will exert significant downward pressure on prices next week. After the monthly meeting, polysilicon remains in a platform shock and is expected to continue. The operation suggestion is to lay out long positions at low prices [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main polysilicon contract is 50,310 yuan/ton, down 405 yuan; the 11 - 12 spread of polysilicon is - 2,360 yuan, up 130 yuan; the main position volume of polysilicon is 49,016 lots, down 3,221 lots; the polysilicon - industrial silicon spread is 41,825 yuan/ton, down 385 yuan [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of polysilicon is 53,000 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan; the basis of polysilicon is 2,285 yuan/ton, down 175 yuan; the weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 6.53 US dollars/kg, down 0.01 US dollars; the average price of cauliflower - type polysilicon is 30 yuan/kg, unchanged; the average price of dense - type polysilicon is 36 yuan/kg; the average price of re - feeding polysilicon is 34.8 yuan/kg, unchanged [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The closing price of the main industrial silicon contract is 8,485 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the spot price of industrial silicon is 9,350 yuan/ton, unchanged; the monthly export volume of industrial silicon is 76,642.01 tons, up 2,635.83 tons; the monthly import volume of industrial silicon is 1,337.59 tons, up 1,220.14 tons; the monthly output of industrial silicon is 402,800 tons, up 36,000 tons; the total social inventory of industrial silicon is 552,000 tons, up 10,000 tons [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of polysilicon is 130,000 tons, up 5,000 tons; the monthly import volume of polysilicon is 1,292 tons, up 286 tons; the weekly spot price of imported polysilicon materials in China is 6.9 US dollars/kg, up 0.01 US dollars; the monthly average import price of polysilicon in China is 2.62 US dollars/ton, down 0.25 US dollars [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of solar cells is 69,857,000 kilowatts, up 3,475,000 kilowatts; the average price of solar cells is 0.82 RMB/W, up 0.01 RMB/W; the monthly export volume of photovoltaic modules is 129,531,290 units, down 19,491,370 units; the monthly import volume of photovoltaic modules is 14,733,770 units, down 6,706,520 units; the monthly average import price of photovoltaic modules is 0.3 US dollars/unit, up 0.06 US dollars; the weekly comprehensive price index (SPI) of the photovoltaic industry for polysilicon is 32.82, unchanged [3] 3.6 Industry News - GCL Technology announced a voluntary notice, disclosing that its photovoltaic materials business achieved a turnaround in the third quarter of 2025, recording a profit of about 960 million yuan, compared with a loss of 1.81 billion yuan in the same period last year. The profit included a post - tax gain of about 640 million yuan from the sale of an associated company. Excluding this non - recurring gain, the photovoltaic materials business still achieved an operating profit [3]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CMB International maintains a "Buy" rating for GCL-Poly Energy Holdings Limited (03800), highlighting a significant increase in polysilicon prices that has led to a turnaround in profitability [1] Financial Performance - GCL-Poly's photovoltaic materials segment reported a profit of 960 million RMB in Q3 2025, including a post-tax profit of 640 million RMB from the sale of its associate company, Xinhua Semiconductor [1] - The company has successfully turned a profit due to the increase in polysilicon prices, which rose from a low of 34,000 RMB per ton to the current price of 50,000 RMB per ton since late July [1] Market Dynamics - The anti-involution policy, which prevents sales below cost, has contributed to the significant rise in polysilicon prices [1] - An increase in operating rates has also helped to dilute unit depreciation and expenses, further supporting the profitability of the granular silicon business [1] Future Outlook - CMB International has revised its net profit forecast for GCL-Poly, setting a target price of 1.54 HKD based on a 2026 price-to-earnings ratio of 16 times, while maintaining the "Buy" rating [1]

Core Viewpoint - CEG (协鑫科技) has turned profitable in Q3 2025 for its photovoltaic materials segment, reporting a profit of 960 million RMB, which includes a post-tax profit of 640 million RMB from the sale of its associate company, Xinhua Semiconductor [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - CEG's photovoltaic materials segment achieved a profit of 960 million RMB in Q3 2025, marking a turnaround from previous losses [1] - The increase in profit is attributed to a significant rise in polysilicon prices, which increased from a low of 34,000 RMB per ton to the current price of 50,000 RMB per ton since late July [1] - The company's operating rate has increased, which has helped to dilute unit depreciation and expenses, contributing to the profitability of the granular silicon business [1] Group 2: Market Outlook - CEG's net profit forecast has been raised by the research firm, with a target price adjustment to 1.54 HKD based on a 2026 price-to-earnings ratio of 16 times [1] - The firm maintains a "Buy" rating for CEG, indicating a positive outlook for the company's future performance [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][17]. Core Views - The company achieved a net profit of approximately 960 million yuan in Q3 2025, marking a significant turnaround after five consecutive quarters of losses. This improvement is attributed to the ongoing photovoltaic anti-involution policy, a rebound in silicon material prices, and the company's continuous cost reduction efforts [1][8]. - The company's average production cash cost for granular silicon in Q3 2025 was 24.2 yuan/kg, a decrease of 1.2 yuan/kg from the previous quarter. The average selling price rose to 37.3 yuan/kg, an increase of 8.1 yuan/kg, resulting in an average production cash profit of 13.1 yuan/kg, which expanded by 9.3 yuan/kg [1][16]. - The company's market share in the silicon material sector increased from 14.58% in 2024 to 24.32% in the first half of 2025, driven by the elimination of high-cost and outdated production capacities [2][13]. - A strategic financing agreement was reached with Infini Capital, raising approximately 5.446 billion HKD (about 4.98 billion RMB) to support structural adjustments in production capacity and optimize the capital structure [2][16]. Financial Performance and Forecast - The company is expected to achieve net profits of -900 million, 2.138 billion, and 4.019 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding EPS of -0.03, 0.07, and 0.13 yuan [3][17]. - Revenue projections indicate a decline from 33.7 billion yuan in 2023 to 14.382 billion yuan in 2025, followed by a recovery to 21.806 billion yuan by 2027 [4][21]. - The company's EBIT margin is forecasted to improve from -6.6% in 2025 to 26.5% in 2027, reflecting a recovery in profitability [4][21].

Summary of GCL Technology Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: GCL Technology (3800.HK) - **Industry**: Solar Materials, specifically Polysilicon Key Financial Highlights - **Profitability**: GCL reported an unaudited profit of Rmb960 million from its solar material business in 3Q25, a significant recovery from a loss of Rmb1.81 billion in 3Q24 [1][2] - **Adjusted EBITDA**: The company's unaudited adjusted EBITDA for the solar material segment was Rmb1.41 billion in 3Q25, compared to a negative Rmb571 million in 3Q24 [1][2] - **Sales Price Increase**: The average sales price of granular silicon was Rmb42.12/kg in 3Q25, reflecting a 27.9% quarter-over-quarter increase and a 28.6% year-over-year increase [1][7] - **Production Cost Reduction**: The average production cash cost was Rmb24.16/kg in 3Q25, down 4.5% from Rmb25.31/kg in 2Q25 and down 27.2% from Rmb33.18/kg in 3Q24 [1][7] Market Position and Strategy - **Cost Leadership**: GCL is recognized as a cost leader in the polysilicon industry, which has contributed to its profit turnaround [1] - **Anti-Involution Actions**: The profit recovery is attributed to anti-involution actions in the Chinese solar sector and regulatory enforcement of pricing laws to prevent below-cost sales [1][7] Future Outlook - **Sustained Profitability**: Expectations for continued profitability in 4Q25, with potential positive catalysts from polysilicon capacity consolidation [1] - **Target Price**: The target price for GCL is set at HK$1.72, indicating a potential share price return of 24.6% from the current price of HK$1.38 [3][10] Risks - **High Risk Rating**: GCL stock is assigned a high-risk rating due to share price volatility. Key downside risks include slower-than-expected polysilicon capacity reduction, lower demand, and higher power costs [11] Additional Insights - **Market Capitalization**: GCL's market cap is approximately HK$42.1 billion (US$5.4 billion) [3] - **Earnings Summary**: Projected net profit for 2025E is -Rmb2.04 billion, with a gradual recovery expected in subsequent years [5] This summary encapsulates the critical financial metrics, strategic positioning, and future outlook for GCL Technology, highlighting its recovery trajectory in the polysilicon market.

Group 1 - The company's photovoltaic materials business turned profitable in Q3 2025, reporting a profit of 960 million RMB, aided by a significant increase in polysilicon prices since late July [1] - The average selling price of granular silicon reached 37,300 RMB per ton in Q3 2025, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 810 RMB, while production cash costs decreased to 24,200 RMB per ton [1] - The company's silicon wafer business transitioned from severe losses in Q2 2025 to a slight profit, with inventory impairment being partially reversed due to rising product prices [1] Group 2 - The company announced a fundraising of 5.392 billion HKD through a share issuance at 1.15 HKD per share, with specific allocations for polysilicon capacity adjustments, R&D, and debt repayment [2] - A new national standard for polysilicon energy consumption is expected to significantly reduce effective production capacity in China to approximately 2.4 million tons, a 31.4% decrease from the existing capacity of 3.5 million tons [2] - The company maintains a "buy" rating, adjusting net profit forecasts upward while slightly lowering earnings per share estimates for 2026/27 due to share dilution, with a target price revised to 1.54 HKD [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [4][7]. Core Insights - The company achieved a net profit of 960 million RMB in Q3 2025, marking a significant improvement compared to the same period last year and the first half of this year, primarily due to a tax benefit from the sale of an associate [1]. - The average selling price of granular silicon increased by 28% to 42.12 RMB/kg in Q3 2025, driven by industry initiatives to reduce competition, while production cash costs decreased to 24.16 RMB/kg, indicating a strong cost advantage [2]. - The company raised 5.336 billion HKD through the issuance of shares, with approximately 3.505 billion HKD allocated for supply-side reform and silane gas business, which is expected to enhance profitability and growth potential [3]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 12.997 billion RMB, 17.433 billion RMB, and 19.513 billion RMB, respectively, with net profits expected to be -950 million RMB, 1.530 billion RMB, and 2.393 billion RMB [4][6]. - The company is expected to achieve a P/E ratio of 24x in 2026 and 15x in 2027, reflecting a recovery in profitability and potential market share growth as industry capacity is rationalized [4][6].