Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [6] Core Views - The company's performance in the first half of 2025 was negatively impacted by low industry prices, but a better price trend is expected in the second half, leading to a significant recovery in performance [2] - The company is projected to have a net profit of -2.057 billion RMB in 2025, with an EPS of -0.07 RMB per share, and a target price of 1.61 HKD based on a 1.2x PB for 2025 [10][11] - The company has a competitive advantage in granular silicon technology, which is expected to improve its market position as industry prices recover [10] Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 33.7 billion RMB, with a decline of 6.2% year-on-year. The revenue for 2024 is expected to drop significantly by 55% to 15.098 billion RMB, followed by a recovery in 2025 with a projected revenue of 12.106 billion RMB [4] - Gross profit is expected to be 11.692 billion RMB in 2023, but will turn negative in 2024 at -2.510 billion RMB, with a gradual recovery to 3.14 million RMB in 2025 [4] - The net profit is forecasted to be 2.510 billion RMB in 2023, declining to -4.750 billion RMB in 2024, and then improving to -2.057 billion RMB in 2025 [4] Price Trends and Market Dynamics - The average selling price of granular silicon has shown a significant increase, with prices rising from 35.71 RMB/kg in Q1 2025 to 32.93 RMB/kg in Q2 2025, and further to 4.8 million RMB/ton by September 2025, marking a 43% increase [10] - The company’s cash costs for granular silicon have decreased, indicating improved efficiency and competitiveness in the market [10] - The report highlights the importance of government policies aimed at stabilizing the solar industry and preventing price undercutting, which is expected to support price recovery [10]

国泰海通发布研报称，预计协鑫科技(03800)26-27年的归母净利润分别为3.06/13.70亿元，EPS分别为 0.01/0.05元/股，BPS分别为1.24/1.29元/股。参考可比公司，给予公司2025年1.2xPB，维持"增持"评级。 下半年价格走势较好，该行看好公司25H2业绩将显著回暖。 根据硅业分会，6月25日，N型颗粒硅的均价为3.35万元/吨，9月3日的均价为4.8万元/吨，上涨幅度达到 43%。8月19日，六部门联合召开光伏产业座谈会，进一步规范光伏产业竞争秩序，打击低于成本价销 售、虚假营销等违法违规行为。该行认为反内卷的推进将支撑硅料价格稳中向上，多部门参会说明政策 的重视程度较高，价格上涨将带来公司业绩的显著回升。 报告指，25Q1/Q2公司颗粒硅的现金成本(含研发)分别为27.07/25.31元/kg，呈现持续下降的趋势。凭借 着持续不断的工艺优化、技术提升以及材料迭代，公司颗粒硅产品的质量稳中有升，基于颗粒硅产品纯 度的优异性和稳定性，客户对本公司颗粒硅的粘附力不断增强。据Infolink统计，2025年7月，颗粒硅的 成交价格首次超过传统N型致密块料。 ...

报告指，25Q1/Q2公司颗粒硅的现金成本(含研发)分别为27.07/25.31元/kg，呈现持续下降的趋势。凭借 着持续不断的工艺优化、技术提升以及材料迭代，公司颗粒硅产品的质量稳中有升，基于颗粒硅产品纯 度的优异性和稳定性，客户对本公司颗粒硅的粘附力不断增强。据Infolink统计，2025年7月，颗粒硅的 成交价格首次超过传统N型致密块料。 根据硅业分会，6月25日，N型颗粒硅的均价为3.35万元/吨，9月3日的均价为4.8万元/吨，上涨幅度达到 43%。8月19日，六部门联合召开光伏产业座谈会，进一步规范光伏产业竞争秩序，打击低于成本价销 售、虚假营销等违法违规行为。该行认为反内卷的推进将支撑硅料价格稳中向上，多部门参会说明政策 的重视程度较高，价格上涨将带来公司业绩的显著回升。 智通财经APP获悉，国泰海通发布研报称，预计协鑫科技(03800)26-27年的归母净利润分别为3.06/13.70 亿元，EPS分别为0.01/0.05元/股，BPS分别为1.24/1.29元/股。参考可比公司，给予公司2025年1.2xPB， 维持"增持"评级。下半年价格走势较好，该行看好公司25H2业绩将显著回暖。 ...

Group 1 - The "anti-involution bull" is seen as a crucial opportunity for the market to switch between the two halves of the bull market, with the first half driven by financial re-inflation and the second half by real asset re-inflation, leading to a return of blue-chip stocks driven by both valuation and performance [2][11][12] - The recent policy shift from the central government marks a significant turning point for "anti-involution," which is expected to drive inflation recovery and facilitate the transition between the two halves of the bull market [2][11][14] - The improvement in local government finances has provided the central government with the confidence to implement policies effectively, as evidenced by the recovery in land auction activities and the narrowing decline in land transfer revenues [2][11][14] Group 2 - The recent two months have seen a strengthening of policy determination from the top down, alongside an increase in corporate willingness to cooperate from the bottom up, alleviating previous market concerns regarding the execution of "anti-involution" policies [3][28][29] - The central government's intervention has shifted from industry association-led self-regulation to more direct involvement, with significant policy announcements aimed at curbing irrational competition in key sectors such as photovoltaics and new energy vehicles [3][29][32] - Corporations, particularly in the photovoltaic sector, have begun to respond positively to "anti-involution" initiatives, with major companies committing to production cuts and inventory control to align with industry-wide efforts [3][33][34] Group 3 - Industries that are expected to benefit from "anti-involution" include glass fiber, coal, energy metals, cement, commercial vehicles, and wind power equipment, identified through various criteria such as state-owned enterprise ratios and industry concentration [3][38] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring price elasticity and tax implications in identifying potential beneficiaries of the "anti-involution" strategy, with a focus on cyclical resource products [3][38]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "B" for the new materials sector, indicating a leading position in the market [2]. Core Insights - The new materials sector has experienced a decline, with the new materials index falling by 0.31%, underperforming compared to the ChiNext index which dropped by 2.67% [4]. - The report highlights the potential of Direct Air Capture (DAC) technology, which has been recognized by the Shanghai government as a key technology for 2025, suggesting significant market opportunities in domestic adsorption materials and equipment [7]. Market Performance - The new materials sector saw varied performance across sub-sectors: - Synthetic biology index decreased by 0.51% - Semiconductor materials fell by 4.74% - Electronic chemicals dropped by 1.54% - Biodegradable plastics increased slightly by 0.02% - Industrial gases decreased by 1.20% - Battery chemicals surged by 13.36% [4][19]. Price Tracking - Weekly price changes for key chemical products include: - Valine: 12,750 CNY/ton (-1.92%) - Arginine: 22,900 CNY/ton (-1.08%) - Tryptophan: 39,500 CNY/ton (-4.82%) - Methionine: 22,050 CNY/ton (-0.68%) - PLA (injection grade): 17,800 CNY/ton (unchanged) - PLA (blown film grade): 17,200 CNY/ton (unchanged) [5]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on DAC technology and related materials and equipment, highlighting companies such as Blue Sky Technology, Jianlong Micro-Nano, and Xizhuang Co., among others, as potential investment opportunities [8].

Core Viewpoint - GCL-Poly Energy reported a significant decline in revenue and a net loss for the first half of 2025, indicating challenges in the current market environment [1] Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 5.735 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 35.30% [1] - The net loss for the period was 1.776 billion yuan [1] - Financial asset impairment losses amounted to 264 million yuan, an increase from 196 million yuan in the same period last year [1] - The company recognized losses from joint ventures totaling 250 million yuan, primarily from Kunshan GCL (69 million yuan), Zhonghuan GCL (66 million yuan), and Xuzhou Risen (83 million yuan) [1] - Administrative expenses were 625 million yuan, reflecting an 8.5% year-on-year reduction, indicating effective cost control [1] Product and Market Performance - The market share of granular silicon reached 24.32% in H1 2025, up from 14.58% in 2024, showing significant improvement [1] - The average selling price of granular silicon decreased to 32,900 yuan per ton in Q2 2025 from 35,700 yuan per ton in Q1 2025 due to domestic installation pullback [1] - The cash cost of granular silicon was optimized to 25,300 yuan per ton in Q2 2025, down from 27,100 yuan per ton in Q1 2025 [1] - The company’s granular silicon production capacity stood at 480,000 tons by the end of H1 2025 [1] Product Quality and Future Outlook - The quality of products is steadily improving, with 95% of products meeting the impurity content standard of ≤0.5 ppbw [1] - In June, the company initiated a new impurity detection standard for products with ≤0.3 ppbw, achieving over 75% compliance in the first month [1] - The turbidity of products has reached over 98% for ≤100 NTU and improved to over 57% for ≤70 NTU [1] - With the recent recovery in polysilicon prices and ongoing cost optimization, the company is expected to be among the first to achieve a turnaround in performance [1]

Core Insights - The report highlights breakthroughs in solid-state battery technology by leading companies such as EVE Energy, Putailai, and Xiamen Tungsten, benefiting from advancements in the energy storage sector [1][3] - A new supply-demand cycle is anticipated in the industry, emphasizing the importance of leading companies and flexible strategies [2] Group 1: Solid-State Battery Developments - EVE Energy's solid-state battery research institute in Chengdu has unveiled the "Longquan No. 2" all-solid-state battery, featuring a capacity of 10Ah and an energy density of 300Wh/kg, aimed at humanoid robots [1][3] - The Chengdu facility is being constructed in two phases, with the first phase expected to be completed by December 2025, achieving a manufacturing capacity of 60Ah batteries [3] - The solid-state battery industry aims to reach an energy density of 400Wh/kg and 1000Wh/L by 2025, accelerating the industrialization process [3] Group 2: Energy Storage Market Growth - Global energy storage battery shipments are projected to reach 258GWh in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 106% [1][4] - Chinese companies dominate the global energy cell shipment rankings, holding all top ten positions and accounting for 91.2% of the global market share [1][4] - Emerging overseas markets, such as Saudi Arabia, Australia, and Chile, have seen Chinese companies secure 199 new overseas energy storage orders, totaling over 160GWh, a year-on-year growth of 220.28% [4] Group 3: Photovoltaic and Silicon Industry Insights - The Chinese energy storage sector continues to gain global market share, with companies like CATL, Sungrow, EVE Energy, and others benefiting from this trend [4] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has issued a plan to eliminate "involution" competition in the photovoltaic sector, promoting orderly development and capacity management [4][5] - China's polysilicon production reached 596,000 tons in the first half of 2025, with GCL-Poly's granular silicon cash cost dropping to 25.31 yuan/kg, potentially leading to profitability by August-September [5]

Investment Rating - The report does not provide specific ratings for sub-industries such as power station equipment, electrical equipment, power supply equipment, and new energy power [3]. Core Viewpoints - The overall industry strategy indicates that a new supply-demand cycle is expected to begin, emphasizing the importance of leading companies and flexible directions. The report suggests a continued focus on leading new energy companies during this layout window, with supply-side innovations like "anti-involution" and solid-state batteries, and demand-side growth in areas like energy storage [4][8]. - The core viewpoint of the new energy vehicle supply chain indicates that a new cycle has begun in the mid and downstream sectors, with leading companies making breakthroughs in solid-state battery technology [4][5]. Summary by Sections New Energy Vehicle Supply Chain - Leading companies such as EVE Energy, Peking University, and Xiamen Tungsten Industry are benefiting from advancements in solid-state batteries. EVE Energy's solid-state battery production base in Chengdu is set to achieve a manufacturing capacity of 60Ah by December 2025, with a target energy density of 400Wh/kg by 2025 [4][5]. Energy Storage Industry - Chinese energy storage companies are gaining a significant share of the global market, with a 106% year-on-year increase in global energy storage battery shipments, reaching 258GWh in the first half of 2025. Chinese companies dominate the top ten global energy storage cell shipments, holding a combined market share of 91.2% [5]. - The "anti-involution" strategy is yielding results, with companies like GCL-Poly, Aiko, and LONGi benefiting from government policies aimed at reducing low-price competition in the photovoltaic sector [5][8]. Photovoltaic Supply and Demand - The report anticipates a marginal improvement in photovoltaic supply and demand, with an expected increase in the operating rate of components in September by 2.45% [6][8]. AI and New Energy - The integration of AI and new energy sectors is highlighted, with companies like Zhenyu Technology and Keda Li benefiting from the upward trend in humanoid robots. Tesla's fourth "Master Plan" emphasizes that 80% of its future value will come from robots [8][23].

丨证券研究报告丨 港股研究丨公司点评丨协鑫科技（3800.HK） [Table_Title] 现金成本进一步优化，产品质量稳步提升 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 协鑫科技发布 2025 年半年报，2025H1 公司实现收入 57.35 亿元，同比减少 35.30%；净利润 亏损 17.76 亿元。 邬博华 曹海花 王耀 任佳惠 申浩树 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] SAC：S0490514040001 SAC：S0490522030001 SAC：S0490524120006 SAC：S0490524070005 SAC：S0490525060004 SFC：BQK482 research.95579.com 1 协鑫科技（3800.HK） cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title2] 现金成本进一步优化，产品质量稳步提升 [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 协鑫科技发布 2025 年半年报，2025H1 公司实现收入 57.35 亿元，同比减少 35.30%；净利润 亏损 17.76 亿元。 事件评论 丨证券研 ...

Core Viewpoint - GCL-Poly is a leading global producer of granular silicon with significant cost advantages, recently recognized for its green and low-carbon innovations. The company faced short-term performance pressure due to supply-demand mismatches in the industry, resulting in a revenue decline of 35.3% year-on-year to 5.73 billion yuan and a net loss of 1.78 billion yuan, an increase of 20.0% year-on-year [1]. Group 1: Company Performance - In H1 2025, GCL-Poly's cash cost for granular silicon was 26.22 yuan/kg, maintaining industry leadership, with a Q2 cost of 25.31 yuan/kg, a decrease of 6.5% quarter-on-quarter [1]. - The company achieved a market share of 24.3% in H1 2025, an increase of 7.2 percentage points from H2 2024, with the top five customers accounting for 71% of shipments [1]. - The average transaction price for N-type granular silicon increased significantly to 48.0 yuan/kg, up 43.3% since early July 2025, indicating a potential return to profitability in August-September [1]. Group 2: Technological Advancements - GCL-Poly's GW-level perovskite production line commenced operations in June 2025, marking a significant step towards commercial-scale production, with a C-round financing of nearly 200 million yuan completed in July [2]. - The company achieved a single-junction module efficiency of 19.04% and a tandem module efficiency of 26.36%, with plans to complete the first product by November 2025 and projected shipments of 100 MW, GW, and 3-5 GW in the following years [2]. Group 3: Industry Trends - The Chinese government is actively promoting the "anti-involution" initiative in the photovoltaic sector, with multiple ministries holding meetings to drive this agenda, which is expected to boost downstream demand and support price transmission in the photovoltaic industry chain [2]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the State Administration for Market Regulation issued a plan to address low-price competition in the photovoltaic sector, which is anticipated to facilitate orderly adjustments in industry scale and promote supply-side reforms [2]. Group 4: Profit Forecast and Valuation - Due to a decline in demand following Q2's rush for installations, GCL-Poly has adjusted its sales assumptions for silicon materials and wafers, projecting net profits of -2.30 billion, 1.28 billion, and 2.14 billion yuan for 2025-2027 [3]. - The company is expected to return to normal profitability by 2026, with a target price of 2.22 HKD based on a 45x PE ratio for 2026, reflecting the anticipated recovery in industry pricing driven by the "anti-involution" measures [3].