如何看待反内卷进程？ 当前光伏投资机会展望 20250710 摘要 Q&A 光伏行业目前的供给侧改革进展如何？ 多晶硅行业通过 CPI 年度大会及月度例会，对企业生产配额进行管控， 旨在恢复产业链报价并降低开工率，类似于 OPEC 模式，通过行政手段 干预市场供需关系。 协鑫科技提出产能并购整合方案，通过金融机构支持，头部公司联合并 购低效产能，以实现产能出清和可控，该方案已获政府确认并推进。 近期多晶硅价格显著上涨，n 型居民料报价从 33.5 元/公斤上涨至 40 元 /公斤，预计本周内最高报价可能达到 45 元/公斤，安泰科对报价的严格 要求进一步支撑价格上涨趋势。 光伏需求总体稳定，地面电站需求受集中式项目企稳支撑，工商业分布 式项目自发自用未受政策影响，海外需求预计自 7 月起环比复苏，出口 退税取消政策亦有助推作用。 2025 年 7 月全行业多晶硅排产为 10.4 万吨，环比小幅上升，主要由于 云南地区丰水期产能复产，预计八九月份西南、西北地区部分产能将持 续复产。 哪些光伏标的值得关注？ 多晶硅价格未来几个月的走势如何？ 多晶硅价格预计将继续上涨。根据 SMM 官方报价，上周 n 型居民料报价 ...

Group 1 - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology held a meeting on July 3 to discuss the photovoltaic industry, emphasizing the implementation of the Central Financial Committee's decisions to promote a unified national market [1] - The photovoltaic glass industry is responding positively to the "anti-involution" policy, with the top ten domestic photovoltaic glass manufacturers planning to collectively reduce production by 30% starting in July [1][2] - As of June 29, the industry has a silicon material inventory of approximately 400,000 tons, which is sufficient to meet two months of downstream demand [1] Group 2 - The price of 2.0mm coated photovoltaic glass has reached a historical low of 10.5-11 yuan per square meter, potentially below the cash costs of leading companies, leading to significant losses for second-tier companies [2] - To avoid intensified competition among photovoltaic glass companies and prevent a vicious market cycle, most glass manufacturers plan to reduce production starting in July, with an industry-wide initiative targeting a 30% reduction [2] - According to Guangfa Securities, the current market conditions will rely more on market-driven measures for supply contraction, with outdated production capacity largely eliminated during the previous downturn [2] Group 3 - Related Hong Kong stocks in the photovoltaic industry include GCL-Poly Energy (03800) and New Special Energy (01799) [3] - Photovoltaic glass-related Hong Kong stocks include Fuyao Glass (06865), Kaisa New Energy (01108), Rainbow New Energy (00438), and Xinyi Solar (00968) [3]

Group 1: Photovoltaic Silicon Material Industry - The photovoltaic silicon material industry is expected to accelerate capacity consolidation, with the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology emphasizing the need for high-quality development in the solar industry [1] - By 2027, the industry is projected to enter a stable development phase, with significant advantages in the silicon material segment due to differences in capacity costs and financial strength among companies [1] - Key companies to watch include GCL-Poly Energy, Xinte Energy, Tongwei Co., and TBEA [1] Group 2: Solid-State Battery Industry - The solid-state battery industry is witnessing continuous advancements, with equipment from Winbond Technology successfully delivered to major domestic clients [2] - Material production is ramping up, with significant capacity in oxide electrolytes and expectations for sulfide electrolytes to achieve ton-level shipments by 2025 [2] - Companies of interest in this sector include Xiamen Tungsten, Tianqi Lithium, and others involved in the solid-state battery supply chain [2] Group 3: Offshore Wind Power Development - The central government is promoting the orderly development of offshore wind power, with a focus on enhancing the marine economy and encouraging private investment [3] - Goldwind Technology has secured over 7.7GW of international orders for 2024, with significant revenue growth reported for its international subsidiary [3] - Key players in the wind power sector include Goldwind Technology, Oriental Cable, and Dajin Heavy Industry [3] Group 4: Data Center Investment - Global data center investments are accelerating, with Amazon planning to invest AUD 20 billion (approximately USD 13.1 billion) in Australia and SK Telecom collaborating with Amazon Web Services for a significant data center project in South Korea [4] - The deployment of NVIDIA's GB300 AI systems is underway, indicating a growing demand for AI computing resources [4] - Companies to monitor in the AIDC power equipment sector include Jinpan Technology, Xinte Electric, and others [4] Group 5: Key Company Earnings Forecasts - The report provides earnings forecasts and investment ratings for several companies, with Goldwind Technology rated "Outperform" and projected to have an EPS of 1.28 in 2025 [5] - Jinpan Technology and other companies also received "Outperform" ratings, indicating positive market sentiment [5] Group 6: Industry Performance Overview - The electric power equipment sector outperformed the market in June, with a 6.68% increase compared to a 2.5% rise in the CSI 300 index [13] - The sector's PE ratio at the end of June was 30.3, reflecting a slight recovery in valuations [13] - The report highlights that the electric power equipment industry has shown strong performance across various sub-sectors, including lithium battery materials and wind power [23]

近日，光伏产业链上游价格出现回暖迹象，其中，硅料成交价格已率先上涨，而多家硅片厂商也于7月9 日上调报价。业内普遍判断，如果价格传导顺利，光伏产业链盈利将得到修复。 值得一提的是，随着"反内卷"持续深入，业内也呼吁应转向更高维度市场竞争。协鑫科技相关负责人向 记者表示，全行业应共同维护健康有序的市场环境，将竞争维度从低水平的"价格战"升级为高价值 的"技术战"和"绿色战"，重点关注低碳技术、产品质量和全生命周期效益等关键指标。 硅料报价大幅上调 中国有色金属工业协会硅业分会发布的数据显示，本周，多晶硅N型复投料成交均价3.71万元/吨，环比 上涨6.92%。N型颗粒硅成交均价3.56万元/吨，环比上涨6.27%。 值得一提的是，本周硅料价格延续涨势，报价区间提升至4.5万元/吨—5.0万元/吨，报价大幅上调25%— 35%，只不过新订单成交量有限。 硅业分会认为，由于多晶硅企业超一年以上亏损运营，为清库存导致价格已远低于综合成本，为符 合"不低于成本销售"的价格法规要求，硅料企业一次性提价至综合成本线之上。在下游各环节市场价格 尚未企稳的情况下，硅片企业短期内仍持观望态度，暂未大规模接受涨价，因此本周硅料新单 ...

Market Overview - On July 9, the Hang Seng Index fell by 1.06%, closing at 23,892.32 points, while southbound funds through the Stock Connect recorded a net purchase of HKD 9.256 billion [1][3] - The total trading volume for the Stock Connect on July 9 was HKD 132.654 billion, with a net purchase of HKD 9.256 billion [1] Stock Performance - In the Shanghai Stock Connect, the total trading volume was HKD 88.533 billion, with a net purchase of HKD 6.585 billion; in the Shenzhen Stock Connect, the trading volume was HKD 44.122 billion, with a net purchase of HKD 2.672 billion [1] - The most actively traded stock in the Shanghai Stock Connect was Legend Holdings, with a trading volume of HKD 10.867 billion, followed by Guotai Junan International and Alibaba-W, with trading volumes of HKD 9.711 billion and HKD 4.349 billion, respectively [1][2] - In terms of net buying, China Construction Bank led with a net purchase of HKD 1.1 billion, despite its stock price declining by 0.24% [1] - Tencent Holdings had the highest net selling amount at HKD 49 million, with its stock price down by 1.37% [1] Shenzhen Stock Connect Highlights - In the Shenzhen Stock Connect, Guotai Junan International topped the trading volume with HKD 3.649 billion, followed by Legend Holdings and Alibaba-W with HKD 3.320 billion and HKD 3.072 billion, respectively [2] - The stock with the highest net purchase was China National Pharmaceutical Group, with a net purchase of HKD 309 million, and its stock price increased by 10.06% [2] - Alibaba-W experienced the highest net selling amount at HKD 25 million, with its stock price down by 3.83% [2]

| 公司名称 | 成交金额 | 净买入额 | | --- | --- | --- | | 国泰君安国际(01788) | 36.49 亿元 | +6311.76 万元 | | 巨星传奇(06683) | 33.20 亿元 | +1.55 亿元 | | 阿里巴巴-W(09988) | 30.72 亿元 | -2453.99 万元 | | 腾讯控股(00700) | 13.11 亿元 | +8770.15 万元 | | 小米集团-W(01810) | 12.18 亿元 | +9209.28 万元 | | 美团-W(03690) | 11.25 亿元 | +2.50 亿元 | | 中芯国际(00981) | 7.54 亿元 | +2.55 亿元 | | 香港中旅(00308) | 7.49 亿元 | +2785.46 万元 | | 中国生物制药(01177) | 5.62 亿元 | +3.09 亿元 | | 协鑫科技(03800) | 5.17 亿元 | +89.28 万元 | | 公司名称 | 成交金额 | 净买入额 | | --- | --- | --- | | 巨星传奇(06683) | 108.67 亿元 ...

Group 1 - The "anti-involution" trend is gaining momentum across various industries, including automotive, photovoltaic, cement, and steel, driven by ongoing policy efforts [2][4] - The photovoltaic sector has shown particularly strong performance, with both Hong Kong and A-shares in this sector seeing cumulative gains of over 5% in the last five trading days [2] - Key photovoltaic stocks, such as Yamaton and GCL-Poly, have experienced cumulative price increases exceeding 10% over the same period [2] Group 2 - The Chinese government has released multiple "anti-involution" policies this year, signaling a new round of supply-side reforms [4] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has emphasized the need to combat "price wars" in the automotive industry, with major automotive companies committing to limit payment terms to suppliers [5] - In the photovoltaic sector, a meeting was held to address low-price competition, and significant production cuts have been announced, indicating a shift towards healthier market dynamics [5] Group 3 - Various securities firms have differing views on the sustainability of the "anti-involution" trend, with some suggesting it may only provide short-term opportunities [6][7] - Industry self-discipline and production cuts are expected to help narrow supply-demand gaps in the short term, while the overall impact of the policies may take time to materialize [7] - The potential phases of the "anti-involution" trend include initial policy-driven expectations, followed by resource price increases, but the actual realization of these phases depends on effective policy implementation and capacity reduction [7]

Market Overview - On July 8, the Hang Seng Index rose by 1.09%, closing at 24,148.07 points, with a net inflow of HKD 387 million through the southbound trading channel [1] - The total trading volume for the southbound trading on July 8 was HKD 113.64 billion, with a net buying of HKD 387 million [1] Southbound Trading Details - In the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect, the trading volume was HKD 74.44 billion with a net selling of HKD 23.8 million, while the Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect had a trading volume of HKD 39.21 billion with a net buying of HKD 625 million [1] - The most actively traded stock in the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect was Guotai Junan International, with a trading amount of HKD 1,002.40 million [2] - Alibaba-W and Meituan-W followed, with trading amounts of HKD 295.44 million and HKD 263.50 million, respectively [2] Net Buying and Selling Analysis - In terms of net buying, Meituan-W led with a net inflow of HKD 92.32 million, closing with a price increase of 2.69% [1] - The stock with the highest net selling was the Tracker Fund of Hong Kong, with a net outflow of HKD 98.10 million, while it closed up by 1.15% [1] - In the Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect, Alibaba-W had the highest net buying of HKD 55.61 million, closing up by 1.52% [2] - The stock with the highest net selling in this segment was Hang Seng China Enterprises, with a net outflow of HKD 54.45 million, closing up by 1.30% [2] Active Stocks Summary - The top ten actively traded stocks in the southbound trading included Guotai Junan International, Alibaba-W, and Tencent Holdings, with respective trading amounts of HKD 1,002.40 million, HKD 295.44 million, and HKD 186.60 million [2] - The daily price changes for these stocks varied, with Guotai Junan International showing a significant increase of 28.54% [2]

（文章来源：证券时报网） 从连续性进行统计， 有3只股获南向资金连续3天以上净买入，连续净买入天数较多的有中芯国际、建 设银行、国泰君安国际，连续净买入天数分别为13天、4天、3天。以其间净买入金额统计，净买入金额 最多的是中芯国际，合计净买入为77.95亿港元，其次是建设银行合计净买入为12.43亿港元，国泰君安 国际合计净买入为5.90亿港元。（数据宝） 7月8日南向资金成交活跃股 | 代码 | 简称 | 成交金额（万港元） | 成交净买入（万港元） | 今日涨跌幅（%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 09988 | 阿里巴巴-W | 461679.67 | 141061.89 | 1.52 | | 03690 | 美团-W | 367677.46 | 113143.46 | 2.69 | | 00939 | 建设银行 | 157510.24 | 39424.17 | 0.49 | | 03800 | 协鑫科技 | 250144.18 | 23492.50 | 10.81 | | 01788 | 国泰君安国际 | 1356066.51 | 19425.25 | 2 ...

2025年7月8日当天，国泰君安国际(01788)、阿里巴巴-W(09988)、美团-W(03690)位居沪港通（南向） 成交额前3位，成交额分别为100.24 亿元、29.54 亿元、26.35 亿元；国泰君安国际(01788)、阿里巴巴- W(09988)、腾讯控股(00700) 位居深港通（南向）成交额前3位，成交额分别为35.37 亿元、16.62 亿 元、12.70 亿元。 深港通（南向）十大活跃成交公司 | 公司名称 | 成交金额 | 净买入额 | | --- | --- | --- | | 国泰君安国际(01788) | 35.37 亿元 | +1.67 亿元 | | 阿里巴巴-W(09988) | 16.62 亿元 | +5.56 亿元 | | 腾讯控股(00700) | 12.70 亿元 | -2.11 亿元 | | 中芯国际(00981) | 12.40 亿元 | +1.04 亿元 | | 小米集团-W(01810) | 12.29 亿元 | -2425.57 万元 | | 美团-W(03690) | 10.42 亿元 | +2.08 亿元 | | 协鑫科技(03800) | 8.74 亿 ...