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协鑫科技(03800):成本下降+价格上行,Q3扭亏为盈
Minsheng Securities· 2025-10-20 14:45
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [4][7]. Core Insights - The company achieved a net profit of 960 million RMB in Q3 2025, marking a significant improvement compared to the same period last year and the first half of this year, primarily due to a tax benefit from the sale of an associate [1]. - The average selling price of granular silicon increased by 28% to 42.12 RMB/kg in Q3 2025, driven by industry initiatives to reduce competition, while production cash costs decreased to 24.16 RMB/kg, indicating a strong cost advantage [2]. - The company raised 5.336 billion HKD through the issuance of shares, with approximately 3.505 billion HKD allocated for supply-side reform and silane gas business, which is expected to enhance profitability and growth potential [3]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 12.997 billion RMB, 17.433 billion RMB, and 19.513 billion RMB, respectively, with net profits expected to be -950 million RMB, 1.530 billion RMB, and 2.393 billion RMB [4][6]. - The company is expected to achieve a P/E ratio of 24x in 2026 and 15x in 2027, reflecting a recovery in profitability and potential market share growth as industry capacity is rationalized [4][6].
研报掘金丨华泰证券:看好国内光伏反内卷稳步推进 维持协鑫科技“买入”评级
Ge Long Hui A P P· 2025-10-20 05:59
Core Viewpoint - Huatai Securities reports that GCL-Poly Energy has made significant progress in its photovoltaic materials business, achieving a turnaround in profitability in Q3 2023 [1] Financial Performance - The EBITDA for the photovoltaic materials business in Q3 is approximately 1.41 billion yuan, with a net profit of about 960 million yuan, both indicating a return to profitability [1] - The turnaround is attributed to several factors, including a transfer gain from joint ventures of about 640 million yuan, improvements in silicon material operations, and the reversal of inventory impairment losses [1] Industry Outlook - The report expresses optimism about the steady advancement of domestic photovoltaic industry reforms, which may reshape the supply-demand dynamics within the sector [1] - The company’s granular silicon energy consumption advantage is highlighted, along with the potential for its silane gas business to create a second growth driver, indicating significant profit elasticity [1] Valuation - Huatai Securities maintains a target price of 2.22 HKD for GCL-Poly Energy, based on a price-to-earnings ratio of 48 times for 2026, and continues to hold a "Buy" rating [1]
大储电芯价格持续上涨,海风高景气度延续
Huaan Securities· 2025-10-20 05:42
Investment Rating - Industry Investment Rating: Overweight [1] Core Views - The price of large storage battery cells continues to rise, indicating strong demand in the energy storage sector. The domestic independent energy storage market is expected to grow due to supportive policies [5][30]. - The domestic offshore wind power sector remains in a high-growth phase, with significant projects such as the 500MW offshore wind project in Hainan officially starting construction [4][21]. - The photovoltaic industry shows stable pricing across the supply chain, with strong overseas demand supporting battery prices [3][14]. Summary by Sections Photovoltaics - The price of silicon wafers and battery cells continues to rise, while module prices remain stable. Strong overseas market demand is a key driver for the price trends [3][14]. - The Qinghai 136 document has initiated bidding for renewable energy projects, with a total mechanism electricity scale of 22.41 billion kWh [14][15]. - GCL-Poly's third-quarter profit reached 960 million yuan, showcasing resilience in a competitive environment [16]. Wind Power - The domestic offshore wind power sector is experiencing high growth, with significant projects like the 500MW offshore wind project in Yangjiang receiving preliminary approval [4][20]. - The Zhejiang offshore wind project has awarded contracts for ±500kV DC submarine and land cables, indicating ongoing investment in infrastructure [20]. Energy Storage - The average price of large storage battery cells has risen to 0.308 yuan/Wh, reflecting strong demand and supply dynamics [25][30]. - In September, the domestic energy storage market saw a significant increase in new installations, with a total of 3.08GW/9.17GWh added, marking a year-on-year growth of 205% in power and 171% in capacity [26]. - The PJM region in the U.S. faces urgent energy storage needs, requiring the deployment of 16-23GW of storage systems over the next 7 to 15 years to meet increasing load demands [27][29]. Hydrogen Energy - The green methanol project is set to receive national subsidies, with companies like Fuan Energy investing in significant production capacity [31][39]. - The hydrogen energy sector is experiencing favorable development trends, with national support for new technologies and financing becoming more accessible [39]. Electric Grid Equipment - NVIDIA's release of the 800V DC white paper highlights the need for high-voltage direct current solutions in data centers, driven by increased power density and load variability [40]. - Investment opportunities in the electric grid sector include companies involved in high-voltage direct current technology and related equipment [41]. Electric Vehicles - The government has launched a three-year plan to double charging facilities, aiming for 28 million nationwide by the end of 2027 [42][45]. - The heavy-duty truck market has seen a nearly 80% year-on-year increase in sales, indicating strong demand and market recovery [45]. Humanoid Robots - A strategic partnership between Zhaofeng and German company Neura has been established, focusing on humanoid robot technology and significant order potential [47][49]. - The humanoid robot sector is entering a phase of small-batch production, with investment opportunities in companies with new technologies and strong order visibility [50].
协鑫科技(03800):多晶硅价格显著上涨推动扭亏,增发募资用于产能收储等多种用途
BOCOM International· 2025-10-20 03:04
Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company GCL-Poly Energy Holdings Limited (3800 HK) [2][11]. Core Views - The significant increase in polysilicon prices has led the company to turn a profit, with the third quarter of 2025 showing a profit of 960 million RMB, aided by a rise in polysilicon prices from 34,000 RMB to 50,000 RMB per ton since late July [7]. - The company plans to raise capital through a share issuance to Infini Global Master Fund at 1.15 HKD per share, with proceeds allocated for various purposes including capacity restructuring and R&D [7]. - New national energy consumption standards for polysilicon are expected to significantly reduce excess capacity, which will benefit the industry [7]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for the company show a decline from 33,700 million RMB in 2023 to 15,001 million RMB in 2025E, followed by a recovery to 25,564 million RMB in 2027E [6][13]. - Net profit is expected to turn from a loss of 4,750 million RMB in 2024 to a profit of 2,918 million RMB in 2026 and 4,105 million RMB in 2027 [6][13]. - The average selling price of polysilicon is projected to increase from 39,000 RMB per ton in 2024 to 56,000 RMB per ton in 2026 and 2027 [8]. Market Data - The company's stock closed at 1.29 HKD with a target price adjusted to 1.54 HKD, indicating a potential upside of 19.4% [1][11]. - The market capitalization of GCL-Poly is approximately 38,694.48 million HKD, with a year-to-date change of 19.44% [4]. Production and Cost Metrics - The company’s polysilicon production volume is expected to increase from 226,123 tons in 2023 to 416,000 tons by 2027 [8]. - The production cost per ton is projected to decrease from 42,000 RMB in 2023 to 32,000 RMB by 2027, while the gross margin is expected to improve significantly [8]. Analyst Adjustments - The net profit forecast has been revised upward, but the earnings per share for 2026 and 2027 have been adjusted downwards by 3% and 6% respectively due to share dilution from the capital raise [7].
从巨亏18亿到盈利超9亿,又一家光伏企业强势逆袭
Core Viewpoint - GCL-Poly Energy (03800.HK) announced a voluntary disclosure indicating that its photovoltaic materials business is expected to turn profitable in the third quarter of 2025 [1] Company Performance - The photovoltaic materials business recorded a profit of approximately 960 million RMB, compared to a loss of 1.81 billion RMB in the same period last year [3] - The main factor for the turnaround was the after-tax gain from the sale of an associate company, amounting to about 640 million RMB. Excluding this non-recurring gain, the photovoltaic materials business still achieved operational profit, with an EBITDA of approximately 1.41 billion RMB, compared to an adjusted LBITDA loss of about 571 million RMB in the previous year [4] Cost and Pricing Dynamics - The average production cash cost of granular silicon (including R&D costs) decreased to 24.16 RMB/kg in the third quarter of 2025, down from 25.31 RMB/kg in the second quarter [5] - The average external selling price (including tax) for granular silicon rose significantly to 42.12 RMB/kg, compared to 32.93 RMB/kg in the second quarter [6] Industry Context - The announcement reflects a decline in costs, a recovery in demand, and a price correction within the granular silicon segment. The photovoltaic materials sector is anticipated to reach a profitability turning point amid intense competition [6] - In the first half of this year, several photovoltaic material companies reported a reduction in losses or a return to profitability, with 47 A-share photovoltaic companies experiencing losses, compared to 39 in the same period last year [6] - GCL-Poly Energy is the first company in the silicon material industry to achieve a phase of profitability, benefiting from stable pricing in the multi-crystalline silicon supply chain [6] - The domestic multi-crystalline silicon industry has seen a cumulative inventory reduction of approximately 12,000 tons in the first nine months of this year, with production expected to be around 130,000 tons in October [7]
从巨亏18亿到盈利超9亿,又一家光伏企业强势逆袭
21世纪经济报道· 2025-10-19 12:04
Core Viewpoint - GCL-Poly Energy (03800.HK) announced a voluntary disclosure indicating that its photovoltaic materials business is expected to turn profitable by the third quarter of 2025, following a significant improvement in financial performance [1]. Financial Performance - The photovoltaic materials segment recorded a profit of approximately 960 million RMB, compared to a loss of 1.81 billion RMB in the same period last year [3]. - The main factor for the turnaround was the after-tax gain from the sale of an associate company, amounting to about 640 million RMB. Excluding this non-recurring gain, the photovoltaic materials business still achieved operational profit [3]. - The EBITDA for this segment was approximately 1.41 billion RMB, a significant improvement from an adjusted LBITDA loss of about 571 million RMB in the previous year [3]. Cost and Pricing Dynamics - The average production cash cost of granular silicon (including R&D costs) decreased to 24.16 RMB/kg in the third quarter of 2025, down from 25.31 RMB/kg in the second quarter [3]. - The average external selling price (including tax) for granular silicon rose significantly to 42.12 RMB/kg, compared to 32.93 RMB/kg in the second quarter [4]. Industry Context - The announcement reflects a decline in costs, a recovery in demand, and a price correction within the granular silicon segment, amidst a backdrop of intense competition in the photovoltaic materials industry [4]. - In the first half of this year, several photovoltaic material companies reported a reduction in quarterly losses or achieved profitability, with 47 A-share photovoltaic companies facing losses, up from 39 in the same period last year [4]. - GCL-Poly Energy is noted as the first company in the silicon material industry to achieve a phase of profitability, benefiting from stable pricing across the polysilicon supply chain [4]. Inventory and Production Outlook - In the first nine months of this year, the domestic polysilicon industry saw a cumulative inventory reduction of approximately 12,000 tons [5]. - The expected domestic polysilicon production for October is around 130,000 tons, with a slight increase in production compared to previous months, while demand remains relatively stable [5].
工业硅关注成本底,多晶硅消息扰动大
Dong Zheng Qi Huo· 2025-10-19 08:13
Report Industry Investment Rating - Industrial silicon: Oscillation; Polysilicon: Oscillation [4] Core Viewpoints of the Report - Industrial silicon prices have a more defined lower limit, and it is more cost - effective to go long at low prices. For polysilicon, the spot price in October is expected to remain flat, and it is not recommended to chase long positions, but rather consider going long when the futures price is at a discount to the spot price [3][17] Summary by Directory 1. Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon Industry Chain Prices - The Si2511 contract of industrial silicon decreased by 255 yuan/ton to 8430 yuan/ton. SMM spot prices of East China oxygen - blown 553 and Xinjiang 99 silicon decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 9350 yuan/ton and 8750 yuan/ton respectively. The PS2511 contract of polysilicon increased by 3375 yuan/ton to 52340 yuan/ton, and the average transaction price of N - type re -投料 of polysilicon was 53200 yuan/ton [9] 2. Industrial Silicon Focuses on Cost Floor, Polysilicon Subject to Large News - Driven Fluctuations - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures main contract weakened. Northern large factories resumed production, while some southern silicon factories cut production in advance. It is expected that there will be more significant production cuts at the end of October. The social inventory increased by 1.7 tons, and the sample factory inventory increased by 0.01 tons compared to before the holiday. It is difficult to reduce inventory in November, and 1.5 tons of inventory will be reduced in December [1][11] - **Organic Silicon**: The price increased slightly. Some devices were under maintenance, the overall enterprise operating rate was 69.99%, the weekly output was 4.63 tons (a decrease of 2.73% month - on - month), and the inventory was 4.18 tons (a decrease of 2.56% month - on - month). The price is expected to oscillate strongly [11][12] - **Polysilicon**: The futures main contract rose. The spot price of first - tier manufacturers' dense material remained at 55 yuan/kg, and that of second - and third - tier manufacturers was 52 - 53 yuan/kg. The new order price of granular material was 51 yuan/kg. The spot trading volume was low after the holiday. The production volume in October is expected to be about 13.8 tons, and it will significantly decrease from November to December. The factory inventory of polysilicon enterprises was 25.3 tons (an increase of 1.3 tons month - on - month), and the polysilicon inventory of silicon wafer enterprises was 22.2 tons (an increase of 1.4 tons month - on - month). The spot price is expected to remain flat [2][13] - **Silicon Wafers**: The prices of some models decreased slightly. The actual final output in October may be higher than expected. As of October 16, the inventory of silicon wafer factories was 17.31GW (an increase of 0.53GW month - on - month). The price is under pressure, and production cuts are needed to support it [14] - **Battery Cells**: The price trend was divided. The mainstream transaction prices of M10/G12 battery cells remained flat, while that of G12R battery cells decreased to 0.285 yuan/W. As of October 13, the inventory of Chinese photovoltaic battery export factories was 6.63GW (an increase of 0.66GW month - on - month). The production volume in October was 58.65GW (a decrease of 1.5GW month - on - month) [15] - **Components**: The price remained basically stable. As of October 13, the finished product inventory of Chinese photovoltaic components was 34.2GW (an increase of 0.6GW month - on - month). The production volume in October was 45.66GW (a decrease of 2.1GW month - on - month). The demand from November to December may not be optimistic. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term [16] 3. Investment Suggestions - **Industrial Silicon**: Due to weak fundamentals and poor macro - sentiment, the futures market weakened this week. After hedging, short - term price drops are unlikely to cause production cuts. It is more cost - effective to go long at low prices [3][17] - **Polysilicon**: It is maintained that the spot price will not fall in October. The market has rebounded significantly. It is not recommended to chase long positions. Consider going long when the futures price is at a discount to the spot price, and pay attention to the PS2511 - PS2512 reverse spread opportunity when the spread is around - 2000 yuan/ton [3][17] 4. Hot News Summary - GCL Technology achieved a profit in the third quarter of 2025, with a profit of about 960 million yuan, compared with a loss of 1.81 billion yuan in the same period last year [18] - In Gansu, the mechanism electricity prices for wind and solar power are the same at 0.1954 yuan/kWh, with a mechanism electricity volume of 830 million kWh [18] - In Xinjiang, the mechanism electricity price for wind power is 0.252 yuan/kWh with a mechanism electricity volume of 18.5 billion kWh, and for photovoltaic power is 0.235 yuan/kWh with a mechanism electricity volume of 3.6 billion kWh [19] 5. Industry Chain High - Frequency Data Tracking - **Industrial Silicon**: Includes data on spot prices, weekly production in different regions, social inventory, and sample factory inventory [20][24][30] - **Organic Silicon**: Covers data on DMC spot prices, weekly profits, factory inventory, and weekly production [31][32][33] - **Polysilicon**: Involves data on spot prices, weekly gross profits, factory weekly inventory, and enterprise weekly production [35][37][38] - **Silicon Wafers**: Contains data on spot prices, average net profits, factory weekly inventory, and enterprise weekly production [40][43][45] - **Battery Cells**: Includes data on spot prices, average net profits, export factory weekly inventory, and enterprise monthly production [46][49][52] - **Components**: Covers data on spot prices, average net profits, factory inventory, and enterprise monthly production [54][57][59]
协鑫科技第三季度光伏材料业务同比扭亏
Bei Jing Shang Bao· 2025-10-19 02:11
Core Insights - GCL-Poly Energy Holdings Limited reported a profit of approximately 960 million yuan for its photovoltaic materials business in Q3 2025, marking a turnaround from a loss of about 1.81 billion yuan in the same period last year [1] Financial Performance - The profit includes a post-tax gain of approximately 640 million yuan from the sale of an associate company [1] - The average external selling price of granular silicon was 42.12 yuan per kilogram in Q3 2025, an increase from 32.93 yuan per kilogram in Q2 2025 [1] - The average production cash cost of granular silicon, including R&D costs, decreased to 24.16 yuan per kilogram in Q3 2025 from 25.31 yuan per kilogram in Q2 2025 [1]
新能源行业周报:六氟磷酸锂景气度超预期,光伏供给侧改革持续推进-20251018
Guohai Securities· 2025-10-18 14:42
Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The lithium hexafluorophosphate market is experiencing unexpected prosperity, and the supply-side reform in the photovoltaic sector is continuously advancing [1] - The report highlights significant improvements in the supply-demand dynamics of the lithium hexafluorophosphate market, with prices rising sharply due to the end of the oversupply situation [8] - The photovoltaic industry is seeing a notable recovery, with the average external price of granular silicon increasing by 27.9% quarter-on-quarter, indicating a positive trend in the sector [5] Summary by Relevant Sections Photovoltaics - The photovoltaic sector is in a "de-involution" phase, with significant effects from supply-side reforms. The average external price of granular silicon reached 42.12 RMB/kg, up 27.9% from Q2, while cash costs decreased by 4.5% [5] - The price of silicon materials has stabilized around 50 RMB/kg, and there are expectations for new policies to further support the industry [5] - Companies to watch include GCL-Poly Energy, Tongwei Co., and high-efficiency battery technology firms such as BAK Power, Aiko Solar, and LONGi Green Energy [5] Wind Power - The offshore wind sector is entering a bidding peak, with significant projects being approved and orders being won by companies like Orient Cable and Zhongtian Technology [6] - The onshore wind market remains robust, with a high level of bidding activity and increasing average prices for wind turbines [7] Energy Storage - Hebei Province has released a list of independent energy storage pilot projects totaling 13.82 GW/47.03 GWh, indicating a push for diverse energy storage technologies [7] - The SNEC ES+2025 International Energy Storage Exhibition showcased advancements in large-scale energy storage systems [7] Lithium Battery - Companies in the lithium battery supply chain are advancing solid-state battery technologies, with significant deliveries of semi-solid batteries reported [7] - The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate has surged over 20% in less than a month, reflecting a substantial improvement in the supply-demand balance [8] Power Equipment - The State Grid's fixed asset investment increased by 8.1% year-on-year, with expectations for continued growth in power infrastructure [9] - The first cross-grid electricity spot trading between Southern and State Grid marks a significant step towards a unified electricity market in China [10]
协鑫集团首席可持续发展官宋贇波:深耕ESG筑牢发展根基 协鑫集团多维度布局应对全球市场挑战
Xin Lang Zheng Quan· 2025-10-18 09:41
专题:2025可持续全球领导者大会&首届绿色产业与可持续消费博览会 2025可持续全球领导者大会于10月16日-18日在上海市黄浦区世博园区召开。 2025可持续全球领导者大会由世界绿色设计组织(WGDO)与新浪集团联合主办,国际财务报告准则 基金会(IFRS Foundation)北京办公室协办,新浪财经与世界绿色设计组织北京代表处承办,上海市黄 浦区人民政府支持。大会以"携手应对挑战:全球行动、创新与可持续增长"为核心主题,汇聚全球智慧 力量,共探可持续发展新路径,为全球可持续治理注入澎湃的"中国动能"。 本届可持续大会在以往四届"ESG全球领导者大会"的基础上进一步升级!嘉宾阵容强大,可持续大会组 委会邀请约500位中外重磅嘉宾,其中约100位为海外嘉宾,不仅有政要、前政要、国际组织的代表,还 包括了诺贝尔奖得主、图灵奖得主、全球500强企业负责人等国际顶尖学者与业界领军代表。本届大会 将围绕近50个议题展开深入研讨,议题涵盖能源与"双碳"、绿色金融、可持续消费、科技与公益等细分 领域。 协鑫集团首席可持续发展官宋贇波出席2025可持续全球领导者大会并在《圆桌论坛——共绘全球能源可 持续发展新图景》议题 ...