Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is Neutral, with a target price of HKD 1.77, indicating a potential upside of 3.5% from the current price of HKD 1.71 [5][8]. Core Insights - The company has experienced a slight narrowing of losses in Q3 2024, with a net loss of RMB 1.492 billion, down from RMB 2.971 billion in the first three quarters, primarily due to reduced inventory impairment [1]. - The report highlights that supply-side reforms are expected to accelerate the clearing of polysilicon supply, which could enhance the company's market position due to its low electricity consumption advantage [2]. - The company is projected to become the first in the industry to achieve cash profitability in polysilicon production by Q1 2025, as cash costs are expected to drop below RMB 30,000 per ton [1][3]. Financial Summary - Revenue is forecasted to decline significantly in 2024 to RMB 16.169 billion, a 52% decrease year-on-year, before recovering in subsequent years [4]. - The average selling price of granular silicon is expected to rise to RMB 55,000 per ton by 2026, with a gradual increase in market share from 14% in 2024 to 22% by 2026 [3][6]. - The company’s production capacity is anticipated to reach 280,000 tons in 2024, with a projected increase to 456,600 tons by 2026 [6]. Valuation Adjustments - The valuation benchmark for the polysilicon segment has been raised from RMB 7 billion to RMB 10 billion per ton of capacity, reflecting increased visibility of profit recovery in 2025-2026 [3][7]. - The target price adjustment from HKD 1.31 to HKD 1.77 is based on the anticipated recovery in profitability and market conditions [3][7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][5]. Core Insights - The company reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of -2.971 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, with granular silicon production and shipment volumes of 198,300 tons and 207,300 tons, respectively [2][3]. - Despite a decrease in the selling price of granular silicon, the company has successfully reduced production cash costs through continuous technological improvements, achieving a cash cost of 33.18 yuan/kg in Q3 2024, down 5.71% quarter-on-quarter [3]. - The company has achieved a global record in carbon footprint management, with its granular silicon production emitting only 24.913 kg of CO2 equivalent per kg of product, benefiting from 100% clean energy usage [4]. - The company is expanding its overseas granular silicon production capacity and exploring new profit growth opportunities in silane gas, with a partnership established for developing a polysilicon production facility in the UAE [5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported a net profit of -2.971 billion yuan, with a granular silicon production volume of 198,300 tons and a shipment volume of 207,300 tons [2][3]. - In Q3 2024, the granular silicon production and shipment volumes were 62,000 tons and 80,900 tons, respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 15.67% and 19.67% [3]. - The company's revenue for 2024 is projected to be 35.93 billion yuan, with a net profit forecast of -2.158 billion yuan for 2024, followed by 1.441 billion yuan in 2025 and 2.689 billion yuan in 2026 [6][9]. Production and Cost Management - The company has focused on optimizing production processes, leading to a steady decline in cash production costs, which are expected to reach below 30 yuan/kg in the near future [3]. - The average selling price of granular silicon in Q3 2024 was 32.75 yuan/kg, reflecting a 7.80% decrease quarter-on-quarter [3]. Environmental and Technological Advancements - The company has received carbon footprint certification from ADEME, highlighting its commitment to sustainability and low carbon emissions in its production processes [4]. - The company is a leader in the research and production of high-purity silane gas, with its production capacity ranking first globally and meeting electronic-grade requirements [5].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for GCL-Poly Energy Holdings Limited (03800.HK) for the first time [1][88]. Core Viewpoints - GCL-Poly is a well-established photovoltaic giant that has innovated through cycles, achieving significant market share and technological advancements in the solar industry [2][24]. - The demand for photovoltaic products continues to grow, although profitability is under pressure due to industry price declines and excess supply [2][60]. - The company is building a green technology matrix to differentiate itself in a competitive market, focusing on cost-effective and high-quality production methods [3][67]. Summary by Sections 1. Established Photovoltaic Giant, Technological Innovation Across Cycles - GCL-Poly was listed in November 2007 and quickly captured a significant market share, becoming a leader in the global photovoltaic market [2][24]. - The company has shifted its strategic focus to granular silicon technology, which has led to a substantial increase in production capacity and market share [2][24]. - R&D investment has been increasing, reaching 5.6% of total revenue in 2023, indicating a commitment to innovation [2][41]. 2. Continuous Growth in Photovoltaic Demand, Profitability Under Pressure - In 2023, the domestic installed capacity surged, with an additional 216.3 GW installed, exceeding expectations [2][60]. - The industry is entering a phase of slower growth, with projected installations of 490 GW in 2024 [2][60]. - The company’s revenue for 2023 was 34.129 billion yuan, a decrease of 7% year-on-year, while net profit fell by 84% to 2.51 billion yuan [1][33]. 3. Building a Green Hard Technology Matrix, Differentiated Competition - GCL-Poly has made significant advancements in granular silicon production, achieving lower costs and higher quality [3][67]. - The company’s granular silicon production capacity is expected to reach 480,000 tons by the end of 2024, with a production volume of nearly 300,000 tons [3][67]. - The company is also advancing in perovskite technology, with significant efficiency improvements and plans for large-scale production [3][85]. 4. Profit Forecast and Investment Rating - The report forecasts total revenue for 2024-2026 to be 17.99 billion, 25.01 billion, and 32.1 billion yuan respectively, driven primarily by volume growth [1][88]. - The projected net profit for 2024-2026 is -2.9 billion, 0.4 billion, and 2.5 billion yuan, reflecting a significant recovery in profitability by 2026 [1][88]. - The report highlights the potential for substantial valuation flexibility due to the company's cost advantages in granular silicon products [3][88].

电力设备及新能源行业 证券研究报告 |公司深度研究报告 2024/10/07 碳中和系列（一）之协鑫科技（公司）深度报告—— 聚焦颗粒硅，协"新"科技引领新周期 | --- | --- | |------------------------|----------------| | | | | 首席分析师： | | | 分析师登记编号： | S1190522080001 | | 证券分析师： | 梁必果 | | 分析师登记编号： | S1190524010001 | | 研究助理： | 钟欣材 | | 一般证券业务登记编号： | S1190122090007 | 刘强 P2 报告摘要 1、颗粒硅成本、产品优势明显，有望率先实现盈利与市占率共振提升 颗粒硅成本优势明显，产品参数持续提升。颗粒硅转换效率高与自动化程度高，工艺端带来天然成本优势，硅烷流化床法电耗显 著低于改良西门子法。截止2024年年中，公司技术优化工程进入收尾阶段，预计完成收尾后，公司现金成本（含研发费用）预期 将降低到3万元/公吨以内。随着行业报价企稳回升，公司有望率先回到量与盈利高速增长的轨迹。 2、推动光伏制造全方位降碳，引领"低碳"新周期 ...

各位投资人大家好我是周旭辉今天很荣幸的邀请到铁心科技的宋浩宋总过来跟大家交流因为这个时间正好是市场的一个转折点上也是硅料价格的一个转折点我觉得这个窗口期非常关键那首先宋总给我们介绍一下公司的一些业务情况吧好的谢谢周总谢谢大家我简单说几句吧因为这个 我们其实三季度还没有完全过完就还有一天而且我们按照正常的情况来看的话也会更新我们三季度的业务情况所以说具体的这个经营数据呢其实大家可以关注我们十月份去公布的我们的这个业务情况的更新那在这个之前的话其实我从大的方面可能给大家介绍一下最近市场的一个变化 其实就是刚才周总说的我们其实已经看到了多金归料的价格在底部已经出现了一些小幅的反弹当然这个反弹的趋势如何我们其实是要看终端市场的表现现在看的话整个市场对于多金归料这些价格上涨的预期我觉得还是能够接受的所以说批量的订单也已经开始迁属 那对于3800对于颗粒硅来讲的话其实在三季度其实发生了一些就是其实在基本面上已经发生了一些反转具体的表现在于就是第一个就是我们的排产开始在三季度从底部回升那七月份是最低的那八九月在环比持续的提升 一直到我们预计到今年年底我们的总体的排产会达到我们产量的90%以上这样子的话来完成我们就是公告的3 ...

財務摘要 2 主席報告和首席執行官業務回顧及展望 4 管理層討論及分析 8 未經審核簡明中期綜合財務報表之審閱報告 21 未經審核簡明綜合損益及其他全面綜合收益報表 23 未經審核簡明綜合財務狀況報表 25 未經審核簡明綜合權益變動表 28 未經審核簡明綜合現金流量表 31 未經審核簡明中期綜合財務報表附註 33 董事及主要行政人員於股份、 相關股份及債券中的權益及淡倉 83 股份計劃 85 主要股東的權益及淡倉 94 企業管治及其他資料 95 公司資料 97 目 錄 財務摘要 | | 截至 6 月 30 日止六個月 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 2024 年 | 2023 年 | 變動 | 變動百分比 | | | 人民幣千元 | 人民幣千元 | 人民幣千元 | | | | （未經審核） | （未經審核） | | | | 收入 | | | | | | 銷售硅片 | 2,342,084 | 7,201,320 | (4,859,236) | (67.5%) | | 銷售電力 | 95,334 | 109,593 | (14,259) | (13.0%) ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1][2]. Core Views - The company is focusing on granular silicon technology, with a structured capacity release and an overseas expansion strategy that leverages the carbon emission and ESG advantages of granular silicon. The low energy consumption and cost advantages of granular silicon help the company navigate through market cycles. Product quality is improving, and the price gap with rod-shaped silicon N-type products is narrowing. As an intermediate product in granular silicon production, the company benefits from a leading cost advantage in silane gas, driven by downstream demand recovery, leading to profit growth. The company also has advanced perovskite technology and is building GW-level production lines to expand long-term capacity. [1] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2024, the company's revenue decreased by 57.7% year-on-year to 8.86 billion yuan, primarily due to a significant drop in silicon material and wafer prices, partially offset by an increase in silicon material shipment volume. - Gross profit for 2024 was -550 million yuan, a decrease of 9.33 billion yuan year-on-year, with a gross margin decline of 48.1 percentage points to -6.2%, attributed to falling product prices. - The company recognized an inventory impairment of 820 million yuan due to the decline in silicon material and wafer prices. - Net profit for H1 2024 was -2.02 billion yuan, with the attributable net profit at -1.48 billion yuan, a decrease of 7 billion yuan year-on-year, in line with expectations. - The company has repurchased shares worth 58 million yuan, 182 million yuan, and 24 million yuan in 2022, 2023, and H1 2024 respectively, with plans for a total repurchase or dividend distribution of no less than 2.5 billion yuan from 2024 to 2026. [1] Granular Silicon Production - The company has gradually released granular silicon capacity, with production capacity reaching 420,000 tons by the end of H1 2024. - The company plans to add 60,000 tons of module capacity in Xuzhou and expand capacity in the Middle East. - In H1 2024, granular silicon production increased by 66% year-on-year to 136,000 tons, with shipments (including internal sales) up 76% to 126,000 tons, and external sales up 85% to 121,000 tons. The average selling price of granular silicon was 40.3 yuan/kg. [1] Cost and Quality Advantages - Granular silicon has low energy consumption, providing cost and carbon footprint advantages. As domestic preferential electricity prices are gradually eliminated, the company's cost advantage over peers may widen. - Product quality is improving, with the total metal impurity ratio for granular silicon at ≤0.5 ppbw reaching 95.8% in July 2024, a significant increase from Q2 2023. - The company's products with a quality rating of 910A and above accounted for 96.6% of total products, an increase of 11.3 percentage points from February 2024. - The company has introduced a "turbidity" concept to represent the content of granular silicon powder, with 99.9% of products having turbidity <120 NTU in July 2024, a 79.3 percentage point increase from Q1 2023. [1] Silane Gas Business - The silane gas business is expected to benefit from demand in silicon-carbon anodes, photovoltaic cells, semiconductors, and display panels. As an intermediate product in granular silicon production, the company has a significant cost advantage in silane gas, which is expected to contribute to profit growth. [1] Perovskite Technology - The company is advancing its perovskite technology through its subsidiary, with the world's first 100MW perovskite pilot production capacity established. A groundbreaking ceremony for a GW-level large-scale perovskite production base was held in December 2023. The conversion efficiency of the company's 1×2m perovskite single-junction module is 19.04%, and the efficiency of the 369×555mm stacked module is 27.34%. [1]

Investment Rating - Maintains a "Buy" rating due to the company's continuous cost reduction and quality improvement in granular silicon, with expected recovery in profitability as polysilicon prices gradually recover [3] Core Views - The company reported revenue of 8 863 billion yuan in H1 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 57 7%, and a net loss attributable to the parent company of 1 480 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 126 8% [2] - Polysilicon shipments reached approximately 126 400 tons in H1 2024, a year-on-year increase of 24 99%, with an average external selling price of 40 3 yuan/kg [2] - Granular silicon shipments to the top three customers accounted for 62 2% of total shipments, with the company's 420 000-ton polysilicon nominal capacity fully operational [2] - Granular silicon quality improved significantly, with N-type silicon accounting for over 96% of production, and total metal impurities in 5 elements reduced to below 1ppbw [2] - R&D expenditure increased to 718 million yuan in H1 2024, with an R&D expense ratio exceeding 8%, up 3 8 percentage points year-on-year [2] Financial Performance and Forecast - Revenue for 2024-2026 is projected to be 17 160 billion yuan, 30 523 billion yuan, and 42 118 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of -49%, +78%, and +38% [3] - Net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024-2026 is forecasted to be -1 915 billion yuan, 1 567 billion yuan, and 4 354 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of -176%, +182%, and +178% [3] - The stock's PE ratio for 2025 and 2026 is estimated at 20x and 7x, respectively [3] Operational Highlights - Granular silicon cash cost is expected to drop below 30 yuan/kg, with significant improvements in product quality and impurity levels [2] - The company obtained 65 patents in H1 2024, including 16 invention authorizations, focusing on granular silicon, industrial silicon, silane gas, perovskite, and CCZ technologies [2] - The company aims to achieve full-scale production of GW-level granular silicon lines by the end of 2024 [2] Market and Valuation - The stock's closing price was 1 17 yuan, with a 12-month price range of 0 89-1 64 yuan and a market capitalization of 28 688 billion yuan [6] - The company's EV/EBITDA ratio for 2024-2026 is projected at 8 31x, 3 61x, and 2 17x, respectively [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for GCL-Poly Energy Holdings Limited (协鑫科技) is not explicitly stated in the report, but it suggests a "sustainable focus" and "buy on dips" strategy due to its competitive advantages in the industry [4]. Core Views - GCL-Poly is currently experiencing losses due to the significant decline in polysilicon prices, which has impacted its revenue and profitability. The company is focusing on improving product quality and reducing costs to navigate through the industry's downturn [1][2]. - The company has achieved a high quality of its core product, granular silicon, with 96.6% of its products meeting the 901A standard or above, which is essential for downstream customers [2][3]. - GCL-Poly's cash cost for granular silicon is expected to drop below 30 RMB/kg, making it the lowest in the industry, enhancing its competitiveness during the industry's bottom cycle [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2024, GCL-Poly reported a revenue decline of 57.7% year-on-year to 8.86 billion RMB, with a gross loss of 553 million RMB, resulting in a gross margin of -6.6% [2]. - The average selling price of polysilicon dropped by 67.5% year-on-year to 40.3 RMB/kg, compared to 124.1 RMB/kg in the same period last year [2]. Product Quality and Market Position - The company has significantly improved the quality of its granular silicon products, with a notable reduction in total metal impurity content and turbidity levels, meeting stringent market standards [2][3]. - GCL-Poly's production capacity for granular silicon has reached 420,000 tons per year, with a 65.6% year-on-year increase in granular silicon output [2]. Cost Structure and Future Outlook - The company has the lowest production costs in the industry for granular silicon, with further reductions anticipated following ongoing technical upgrades [3]. - GCL-Poly is expected to incur a net loss of up to 2 billion RMB for the full year of 2024, but is projected to return to profitability in 2025 with an estimated net profit of 2.4 billion RMB [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][4]. Core Views - The company has experienced a significant decline in revenue and profitability due to a sharp drop in industry chain prices, with a 57.9% year-on-year decrease in photovoltaic materials revenue in 2024H1 [1][2]. - The company is expected to reduce its cash cost of granular silicon to below RMB 30/kg, which will enhance its competitive advantage [1]. - The company has established long-term supply agreements with leading silicon wafer manufacturers, indicating strong demand for its granular silicon products [1][2]. Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - In 2024H1, the company achieved a revenue of RMB 8.863 billion, a decrease of 57.69% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of -RMB 1.48 billion, a decline of 126.81% [2]. - The company's polysilicon production reached 136,400 tons, a year-on-year increase of 22.8%, while granular silicon production increased by 65.6% [1]. Product Quality and Market Position - The quality of granular silicon has improved significantly, with 95% of products meeting the impurity content standard of ≤0.5 ppbw [1]. - The top three customers accounted for 62.2% of the company's granular silicon shipments, reflecting strong market recognition [1]. Future Growth Potential - The company is exploring overseas granular silicon production capacity, which could support its international transformation [2]. - The silane gas business is expected to become a new profit growth point, with the company holding a leading position in high-purity silane gas production [2].