Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market started 2026 with a strong performance, indicating a continuation of the structural bull market from 2025, with a clear investment focus on hard technology sectors like semiconductors, AI, and smart hardware, as well as policy-driven consumption sectors like home appliances and automobiles [1][5]. Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index rose by 2.76% to close at 26,338.47 points, while the Hang Seng Technology Index surged by over 4% to 5,736.44 points, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index increased by 2.86% to 9,168.99 points [1]. Semiconductor Sector - The semiconductor sector saw significant gains, driven by mergers and acquisitions as well as domestic production initiatives. Notable stock performances included Huahong Semiconductor (up 9.42%), SMIC (up 5.11%), and Jingmen Semiconductor (up 3.53%) [5][6]. - Huahong Semiconductor announced a major asset restructuring plan to acquire a 97.5% stake in Huali Micro for a transaction price of 8.268 billion yuan, alongside plans to raise up to 7.556 billion yuan for technology upgrades [6][7]. Internet Technology Sector - Internet technology stocks rebounded strongly, with Baidu Group rising by 9.53%, NetEase by 6.62%, and Alibaba by 4.34%. A key catalyst was Baidu's announcement of its AI chip subsidiary Kunlun's application for a mainboard listing [9][10]. - Kunlun's expected revenue for 2025 is around 5 billion yuan, with a potential valuation of 3 to 11 billion USD for Baidu's stake in the company [11]. Home Appliances Sector - Home appliance stocks benefited from favorable policies, with Skyworth Group rising by 10.45%, Midea Group by 5.12%, and Haier Smart Home by 4.20%. The National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance announced a new policy to support large-scale equipment updates and trade-in programs [11][12]. - The new policy is expected to alleviate sales pressure in the short term and benefit leading companies with R&D and brand advantages in the long term [13]. Automotive Sector - Several automotive stocks gained, including Li Auto (up 4.93%) and BYD (up 3.57%), supported by the implementation of the "old-for-new" vehicle trade-in policy [14][16]. - The policy allows consumers to receive subsidies for trading in eligible old vehicles for new ones, which is expected to stimulate market confidence [16]. Solar Energy Sector - Solar energy stocks saw gains, with GCL-Poly Energy rising by 20.99% and GCL-Technology by 4.72%. The market regulator is enhancing compliance guidance for price competition in the solar industry [17]. Commercial Aerospace Sector - Commercial aerospace stocks performed well, with Asia Pacific Satellite rising by 34.53% and Aerospace Holdings by 18.33%. Blue Arrow Aerospace's IPO application was accepted, marking a significant milestone in the sector [18][19]. Individual Stock Movements - Delin Holdings rose by 11.76% following the conditional approval of its subsidiary to provide virtual asset trading services [21]. - Meitu Inc. increased by 6.14% after issuing $250 million in convertible bonds to Alibaba, which could make Alibaba the third-largest shareholder in Meitu [22].

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market saw a significant rise in solar energy stocks, indicating positive market sentiment towards the renewable energy sector [1] Group 1: Company Performance - GCL-Poly Energy surged nearly 21%, reflecting strong investor interest and confidence in the company's growth potential [1] - GCL-Technology experienced an increase of nearly 5%, suggesting a favorable outlook for its operations and market position [1] - Flat Glass Group, Rainbow Energy, and Xinyi Solar all rose over 3%, indicating a broader positive trend among solar energy companies [1] - New Special Energy, Xinyi Energy, and Xinyi Glass saw increases of over 2%, further demonstrating the overall strength of the solar energy sector in the market [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CMB International indicates that the mainland market is entering a phase of policy validation and profit recovery as the "14th Five-Year Plan" begins. The evolution of pricing power structure is attracting long-term capital back to new core assets [1] Group 1: Key Variables for January - Three major variables to focus on in January include: 1) the first batch of major projects and revenue-increasing policy details under the "14th Five-Year Plan" [1] 2) overseas liquidity [1] 3) consumer data and seasonal liquidity before the Spring Festival holiday [1] Group 2: Investment Strategy - The company suggests focusing on "domestic demand reconstruction" and "resilience in overseas markets," balancing offensive and defensive strategies [1] - Selected stocks for January include: 1) Prosperity Industrial Trust (00778) [1] 2) NVIDIA (NVDA.US) [1] 3) Hesai Technology (02525) [1] 4) Sangfor Technologies (01530) [1] 5) Yili Group (600887.SH) [1] 6) GCL-Poly Energy (03800) [1]

Core Insights - The report highlights the changes in the Hong Kong Stock Connect holdings, indicating significant increases and decreases in ownership percentages for various companies as of December 31, 2025 [1] Group 1: Increased Holdings - Andeli Juice (02218) saw the largest increase in ownership percentage, rising by 2.35% to a total holding of 23.75% [2] - Mengniu Dairy (02319) experienced a slight increase of 0.07%, bringing its holding to 17.52% [2] - The Yingfu Fund (02800) had a minimal increase of 0.02%, resulting in a holding of 1.78% [2] - Other notable increases include Lion Group (02562) with a 3.79% rise to 49.05% and Zhejiang Shibao (01057) with a 3.55% increase to 58.76% [3] Group 2: Decreased Holdings - Country Garden (02007) faced the largest decrease, with a drop of 0.51% to a holding of 15.33% [2] - Geely Automobile (00175) saw a reduction of 0.16%, resulting in a holding of 11.37% [2] - Huaxia Hengsheng Technology (03088) experienced a minor decrease of 0.02%, leading to a holding of 20.19% [2] - Other significant decreases include Jiahe Biotechnology-B (06998) with a 1.74% drop to 0.61% and Chalco International (02068) with a 1.50% decrease to 19.44% [3] Group 3: Five-Day Changes - Over the last five trading days, Lion Group (02562) had the highest increase in ownership percentage, up by 3.79% [3] - Zhejiang Shibao (01057) and Sanhua Intelligent Control (02050) also saw significant increases of 3.55% and 3.46%, respectively [3] - Conversely, Jiahe Biotechnology-B (06998) had the largest decrease of 1.74% over the same period [3] Group 4: Twenty-Day Changes - In the last twenty days, Lion Group (02562) experienced a substantial increase of 23.92% in ownership [4] - Jihong Co., Ltd. (02603) followed with a 22.62% increase, reaching a holding of 54.86% [4] - Red Star Macalline (01528) also saw an increase of 8.47%, bringing its holding to 52.20% [4]

Core Insights - The top three companies by stockholding ratio in the Hong Kong Stock Connect are China Telecom (71.90%), GCL-Poly Energy (69.96%), and Da Zhong Public Utilities (68.75%) [1][2] - The companies with the largest increase in stockholding over the last five trading days include SMIC (+1.092 billion), China Merchants Bank (+1.052 billion), and Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (+790 million) [1][2] - The companies with the largest decrease in stockholding over the last five trading days include China Mobile (-3.216 billion), Tencent Holdings (-1.107 billion), and the Tracker Fund of Hong Kong (-465 million) [1][2] Stockholding Ratios - China Telecom (00728) holds 99.79 million shares with a stockholding ratio of 71.90% [2] - GCL-Poly Energy (01330) holds 28.3 million shares with a stockholding ratio of 69.96% [2] - Da Zhong Public Utilities (01635) holds 36.7 million shares with a stockholding ratio of 68.75% [2] - Other notable companies in the top 20 include China Shenhua (66.39%) and China Merchants Energy (64.43%) [2] Recent Trading Activity - The top three companies with increased holdings in the last five trading days are: - SMIC (00981): +1.092 billion, +15.28 million shares [2][3] - China Merchants Bank (03968): +1.052 billion, +19.92 million shares [2][3] - Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (00388): +790 million, +1.93 million shares [2][3] - The top three companies with decreased holdings in the last five trading days are: - China Mobile (00941): -3.216 billion, -39.36 million shares [2][3] - Tencent Holdings (00700): -1.107 billion, -1.84 million shares [2][3] - Tracker Fund of Hong Kong (02800): -465 million, -18.01 million shares [2][3]

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index closed at 25,855, down 0.86% for the day but up 28.89% year-to-date[1] - The Hang Seng Technology Index rose 1.74% to 5,578, with a year-to-date increase of 24.85%[1] - The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index increased by 1.12% to 8,991, with a year-to-date rise of 23.34%[1] Sector Performance - Baidu's stock surged nearly 9% due to advancements in AI and smart cloud business, with significant growth in its self-developed AI chip and smart driving orders[7] - The semiconductor sector saw strong gains, with InnoTek rising over 15% and SMIC up more than 4% following Nvidia's announcement of partnerships for a new power architecture[7] - Robotics stocks were active, with Yujing Technology up over 13% and Sanhua Intelligent Control up over 12%, supported by a significant increase in industrial robot production[7] Oil and Entertainment - Oil stocks continued to perform well, with CNOOC rising nearly 4% as international oil prices increased due to geopolitical tensions[7] - The entertainment sector saw a boost, with Emperor Culture Industries rising nearly 9% as the 2025 New Year box office surpassed 5.3 billion yuan, a near eight-year high[7] Economic Indicators - The WTI crude oil price surpassed $58 per barrel, while Brent crude approached $62 per barrel, driven by rising geopolitical risks[7] - The US Federal Reserve indicated potential future interest rate cuts if inflation continues to decline, as noted in the December meeting minutes[11]

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic industry is moving towards high-quality development with a focus on "anti-involution," as indicated by the recent industry conference and the consensus among major enterprises in the sector [1][2][3]. Group 1: Industry Conference Insights - The 2025 Photovoltaic Industry Annual Conference was held in Xi'an, focusing on "breaking the involution dilemma and promoting high-quality sustainable development" [2]. - Key representatives from the National Energy Administration, Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, and Ministry of Commerce participated, discussing the development path for the photovoltaic industry during the critical transition from the 14th to the 15th Five-Year Plan [2]. Group 2: Regulatory Focus for 2026 - The industry governance will enter a critical phase in 2026, with six key areas of focus including capacity regulation, price monitoring, innovation promotion, standard system improvement, industry self-discipline, and international cooperation [3]. - The regulatory bodies emphasized the need for a shift from quantity expansion to quality improvement, signaling a strong commitment to high-quality development [3]. Group 3: Industry Consensus and Actions - Major enterprises in the photovoltaic sector are responding positively to policy calls, achieving a consensus on "anti-involution" and strictly controlling production [4]. - From January to October, the production of polysilicon and silicon wafers saw significant declines, with polysilicon production down 29.6% year-on-year to approximately 1.113 million tons, marking the first decline since 2013 [4]. Group 4: Initial Effects of "Anti-Involution" - The initial effects of the "anti-involution" actions are becoming evident, with prices stabilizing despite a decline in demand; in November, the price of photovoltaic modules increased by 1.3% year-on-year, and the average factory price of polysilicon rose by 34.4% [5]. - The revenue of 31 listed companies in the photovoltaic sector decreased by 17% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025, but the decline is narrowing, indicating a positive shift in market sentiment [5]. - The total market capitalization of these companies increased by 37% from the end of May to the end of November, reflecting a change in external pessimistic expectations [5]. Group 5: Investment Recommendations - Investment opportunities are suggested in companies like GCL-Poly Energy and Junda Co., which have competitive advantages in their respective segments [5]. - GCL-Poly's unique granular silicon technology offers significant cost advantages in the polysilicon segment, while Junda Co. leads in TOPCON technology and is expanding into perovskite tandem cells and space photovoltaics [5].

Group 1 - Several Hong Kong solar stocks experienced gains, with GCL-Poly Energy (00451.HK) rising by 6.76% to HKD 0.79 [1] - Xinte Energy (01799.HK) increased by 5.22% to HKD 7.66 [1] - GCL-Technology (03800.HK) saw a rise of 2.75% to HKD 1.12 [1] - Xinyi Solar (00968.HK) grew by 1.32% to HKD 3.06 [1]

Group 1 - Some solar stocks have risen, with GCL-Poly Energy (00451) up 6.76% to HKD 0.79, Xinte Energy (01799) up 5.22% to HKD 7.66, GCL-Technology (03800) up 2.75% to HKD 1.12, and Xinyi Solar (00968) up 1.32% to HKD 3.06 [1] - The State Administration for Market Regulation has initiated compliance guidance on price competition in the solar industry in Hefei, Anhui, aiming to enhance product quality supervision and enforce laws against unfair competition [1] - This initiative is expected to combat illegal activities such as price collusion in the short term, while guiding the industry towards technological innovation and high-quality development in the long term, creating a favorable environment for leading companies with technological and cost advantages [1]

Overview - The report maintains a "stronger than market" rating for the renewable energy sector, highlighting that the demand for offshore wind power in China and Europe is increasing, leading to a rise in foundation demand and profit recovery for wind turbines. The "anti-involution" policy is expected to continue driving the photovoltaic sector, particularly with the expansion of perovskite technology. Overall, while short-term installation demand for renewable energy globally may be weak, there are structural opportunities in the market [1]. Key Points Supporting the Rating - The "anti-involution" trend is stabilizing wind turbine prices, enhancing profitability for manufacturers. China's offshore wind projects are becoming economically viable, contributing significantly to installed capacity. The demand for offshore wind in Europe and emerging markets is also on the rise [3]. - In the photovoltaic sector, the "anti-involution" policy remains the main theme, with a focus on the potential for capacity exits in battery and module production, as well as the industrialization potential of perovskite technology. Investment should prioritize growth-oriented new technology directions and the main industry chain benefiting from the "anti-involution" trend [3]. Investment Recommendations - For wind power, the report suggests prioritizing investments in the turbine segment, which is expected to recover profitability, and in the foundation segment that is progressing quickly in Europe. The offshore wind market is projected to grow significantly, with a focus on deep-sea projects [3]. - In the photovoltaic sector, the report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the "anti-involution" policy's impact on the industry, particularly regarding the exit of inefficient capacity and the enhancement of efficiency in battery and module production [3]. Long-term Outlook for Renewable Energy Demand - The report indicates that China's renewable energy demand is expected to remain robust in the long term, with an average annual installation capacity of over 400GW projected from 2025 to 2035. This is driven by the country's energy security needs and the ongoing transition to a low-carbon economy [13][16]. - The "136 Document" is noted for guiding the development of renewable energy projects towards market-oriented pricing, which is expected to stabilize project returns and promote high-quality development in the sector [31]. Photovoltaic Sector Insights - The report anticipates a moderate decline in photovoltaic installations in 2026 due to a phase of pre-installation in 2025, with projected installations of 290GW in 2025 and 180GW in 2026, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 38% [33]. - The report highlights that the European photovoltaic market is facing growth challenges, with a forecasted installation of 64.2GW in 2025, indicating a slight decline. The U.S. market is also expected to experience pressure on growth due to policy adjustments [34][37]. Perovskite Technology Potential - Perovskite technology is identified as a key area for enhancing competitiveness in the photovoltaic manufacturing sector, with expectations for significant breakthroughs in industrialization by leading manufacturers in 2026 [33][44].