Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impending maturity of a significant amount of household savings deposits in China, which could impact market supply and demand dynamics in 2026, amidst a changing macroeconomic environment. Group 1: Deposit Maturity and Scale - The maturity of household savings deposits is expected to reach between 30 trillion to 60 trillion yuan in 2026, with estimates varying among institutions [1][3][5] - The total amount of domestic RMB deposits in financial institutions was approximately 327 trillion yuan as of November 2025, with household time deposits accounting for 121 trillion yuan [3] - A notable decline in the growth of household time deposits was observed, with an increase of only 11.03 trillion yuan in 2025, the lowest since 2022 [3] Group 2: Market Dynamics and Investment Trends - The expectation of a "deposit migration" process has begun, with significant funds potentially flowing into other wealth management assets as deposit rates decline [2][8] - Various brokerages predict a peak in deposit maturities in 2026, particularly for three-year time deposits initiated in 2023, with estimates suggesting a maturity volume of 38 trillion yuan [6][7] - The overall trend indicates that even a small percentage of funds migrating from deposits could represent a substantial amount due to the large base of total deposits [13] Group 3: Alternative Investment Products - Financial products such as wealth management, insurance, and funds are becoming more common alternatives to traditional deposits, with insurance products showing strong appeal due to their higher yields compared to bank deposits [10][11] - The insurance sector is expected to attract significant funds as it offers stable returns and safety, especially as traditional deposit rates decline [10] - Wealth management products are projected to grow significantly, with estimates suggesting an increase of 3.83 trillion yuan under conservative scenarios in 2026 [9] Group 4: Stock Market Implications - The A-share market has shown signs of increased activity, with a record number of new accounts opened in 2025, indicating potential interest in stock investments [12] - Despite skepticism about a direct correlation between deposit maturity and stock market inflows, the sheer volume of deposits suggests that even minor reallocations could lead to significant capital entering the market [13][14] - Some analysts believe that the current environment may lead to a greater willingness among middle-income groups to invest in the stock market, influenced by positive market sentiment [14]

Core Viewpoint - The company, China International Capital Corporation (CICC), has shown significant growth in revenue and net profit for the first nine months of 2025, indicating strong operational performance in the investment banking sector [8]. Company Overview - CICC is headquartered in Beijing and was established on July 31, 1995, with its shares listed on November 2, 2020 [7]. - The company operates in various segments including investment banking, equity sales and trading, fixed income, wealth management, and asset management, with wealth management contributing the largest share of revenue at 32.58% [7]. - CICC is classified as a state-owned enterprise, ultimately controlled by Central Huijin Investment Ltd. [3][4]. Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, CICC reported operating revenue of 20.76 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 54.36%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 6.57 billion yuan, up 129.75% year-on-year [8]. - The company has distributed a total of 5.36 billion yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with 3.04 billion yuan distributed over the past three years [9]. Shareholder Structure - As of September 30, 2025, CICC had 118,900 shareholders, a decrease of 4.10% from the previous period, with an average of 24,662 shares held per shareholder, an increase of 4.28% [8]. - The top ten circulating shareholders include Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited and various ETFs, indicating a diversified institutional interest in the company's stock [10]. Market Activity - On January 14, CICC's stock price decreased by 0.39%, with a trading volume of 1.429 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 1.36%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 171.85 billion yuan [1]. - The stock has shown no clear trend in major capital inflows, with a net inflow of 13.29 million yuan on the day, ranking 15th out of 50 in its industry [4][5]. Technical Analysis - The average trading cost of CICC's shares is 36.13 yuan, with the stock price approaching a support level of 35.44 yuan, suggesting potential for a rebound if this level holds [6].

Core Insights - Ryan Capital released the ranking of IPO sponsors in Hong Kong for 2025, highlighting the participation of 55 brokerage firms in the past 24 months, with 32 being Chinese firms, 13 foreign firms, and 10 Hong Kong firms [1][4]. Group 1: Overall Participation - In the past 24 months, a total of 188 new companies went public, with the top five sponsors being CICC (61 companies, 32.4% participation), CITIC Securities (45 companies, 23.9%), Huatai International (29 companies, 15.4%), China Merchants International (19 companies, 10.1%), and Morgan Stanley (14 companies, 7.4%) [4][5]. - Among the 55 brokerage firms, 19 firms participated in only one listing, accounting for 34.55% of the total [7]. Group 2: Recent Trends - In the past 12 months, 44 out of the 55 brokerage firms participated in the sponsorship of 117 new companies, with the top five sponsors being CICC (42 companies, 35.9% participation), CITIC Securities (33 companies, 28.2%), Huatai International (22 companies, 18.8%), China Merchants International (13 companies, 11.1%), and Morgan Stanley (12 companies, 10.3%) [8][9]. - 18 firms participated in only one listing in the past 12 months, representing 32.7% of the total [10].

Group 1 - On January 13, CICC's stock fell by 1.38% with a trading volume of 1.231 billion yuan, and the net financing purchase was 44.4851 million yuan, indicating high financing activity [1] - As of January 13, the total margin balance for CICC was 2.882 billion yuan, with the financing balance accounting for 2.76% of the circulating market value, which is above the 80th percentile over the past year [1] - CICC's short selling activity on January 13 included a repayment of 18,500 shares and a sale of 1,200 shares, with a total selling amount of 42,900 yuan, indicating elevated short selling levels [1] Group 2 - CICC, established on July 31, 1995, operates in investment banking, equity sales and trading, fixed income, commodities, wealth management, and investment management, with revenue contributions from wealth management (32.58%), equity business (25.78%), and others [2] - As of September 30, CICC had 118,900 shareholders, a decrease of 4.10%, while the average circulating shares per person increased by 4.28% to 24,662 shares [3] - For the period from January to September 2025, CICC reported a revenue of 20.761 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 54.36%, and a net profit of 6.567 billion yuan, up 129.75% year-on-year [3] Group 3 - As of September 30, 2025, the top ten circulating shareholders of CICC included Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited as the third-largest shareholder with 123 million shares, an increase of 51.425 million shares from the previous period [4] - The fourth-largest shareholder, Cathay CSI All-Share Securities Company ETF, held 30.2098 million shares, an increase of 12.1667 million shares [4] - The sixth-largest shareholder, Huabao CSI All-Share Securities Company ETF, increased its holdings by 5.6295 million shares to 19.6047 million shares [4]

Core Viewpoint - Alibaba's stock price increased by 4.38% to HKD 166.90, with a trading volume of HKD 15.029 billion, indicating positive market sentiment towards the company following a report from CICC [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Alibaba Cloud's revenue for Q3 FY26 accelerated year-on-year growth to 36%, with external revenue increasing by 32%, reflecting strong performance in the cloud computing segment [1] - The company's e-commerce CMR growth slowed to 2%, while flash sales EBITA losses narrowed to HKD 24 billion, indicating pressure on overall profitability but a clear strategic investment rhythm [1] Group 2: Strategic Initiatives - CICC highlighted that Alibaba is significantly increasing its capital expenditure budget, focusing on self-developed core hardware and leveraging a global infrastructure network with 29 regions and 92 availability zones for scalable deployment [1] - The forecast for Alibaba Cloud's revenue suggests a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) exceeding 30% over the next three years, driven by ongoing investments in AI infrastructure [1] Group 3: Investment Outlook - CICC maintains a "Buy" rating for Alibaba, emphasizing the long-term growth potential driven by the dual engines of "consumption + AI" [1]

Company Overview - Zeling Bio has submitted a listing application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with joint sponsors Jefferies and CICC [1] - The company is a late-stage clinical biotechnology firm focused on integrating structural biology, artificial intelligence, and clinically relevant disease models to develop highly differentiated small molecule therapies [1] - Zeling Bio targets significant unmet medical needs in hematologic diseases, oncology, central nervous system disorders, and immune/inflammatory diseases, possessing eight proprietary assets in clinical and preclinical stages [1] Product Pipeline - The core product, Fluorotinib (FM), is in Phase 3 registration clinical trials for the treatment of myelofibrosis, a type of myeloproliferative neoplasm [1] - FM is a novel triple-target inhibitor of Janus kinase 2, FMS-like tyrosine kinase 3, and cyclin-dependent kinase 6 [1] - Another product, Pidilizumab (PM), is also in Phase 3 registration clinical trials for the treatment of relapsed/refractory diffuse large B-cell lymphoma, designed as a next-generation selective HDAC I/IIb inhibitor emphasizing selectivity and safety [1] Industry Insights - The global oncology therapeutics market is projected to grow from $262.1 billion in 2024 to $724.9 billion by 2035 [2] - The Chinese oncology therapeutics market is expected to expand from $37.2 billion in 2024 to $143.7 billion by 2035 [2] - The global myelofibrosis therapeutics market is anticipated to increase from $3 billion in 2024 to $11.1 billion by 2035, with a compound annual growth rate of 14.6% expected in the Chinese market during the same period [2]

Market Overview - The three major indices collectively adjusted, with the Shenzhen Component Index falling over 1% and the ChiNext Index dropping nearly 2% [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 3.65 trillion yuan, an increase of 49.6 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] - Over 3,700 stocks in the market declined, while sectors such as AI applications and AI healthcare saw gains [1] Strategic Metals Investment - CITIC Construction maintains a positive outlook on strategic metals investment opportunities due to rising resource nationalism and geopolitical tensions [2] - The importance of strategic mineral resources has increased, becoming a new battleground for countries amid global supply chain disruptions [2] Inflation and Federal Reserve Outlook - CICC reports that the U.S. December CPI rose by 2.7% year-on-year, aligning with market expectations, while core CPI was at 2.6%, below expectations [3] - The report indicates that moderate inflation data is insufficient for the Federal Reserve to consider a rate cut in January, with the next potential cut possibly in March [3] Market Sentiment and Sector Rotation - CITIC Securities highlights that market liquidity is increasing, with A-share trading volume surpassing 3 trillion yuan, leading to accelerated sector rotation [4] - External factors, such as U.S. non-farm payrolls and unemployment rates, have reduced the likelihood of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in January [4] - Domestic economic recovery remains fragile, with ongoing adjustments in economic and income structures, while support for technology sectors like AI and commercial aerospace continues [4]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has shown strong performance at the beginning of 2026, with a historical high in trading volume and a significant increase in major indices, driven by multiple favorable factors [1][2][4]. Market Performance - As of January 12, 2026, the Shanghai Composite Index has risen by 4.9% since the end of 2025, marking 17 consecutive days of gains, positioning it among the top global markets [1]. - The total trading volume on January 12 reached 3.64 trillion yuan, setting a new historical record [1]. Supporting Factors - Investor optimism for 2026, particularly in the first half, has led to increased capital allocation [2]. - Recent technological advancements in sectors like AI and commercial aerospace have catalyzed market interest, with significant satellite applications submitted to the International Telecommunication Union [2]. - Anticipation of positive earnings reports from A-share companies at the end of January, especially for small and mid-cap stocks, has contributed to market optimism [2]. - The ongoing trend of capital movement from savings to investments has created a positive feedback loop with market performance [2]. - The appreciation of the Chinese yuan, recently reaching 6.96, has also supported market sentiment [2]. Short-term Considerations - The rapid increase in market performance and trading volume necessitates caution regarding potential short-term volatility, as high turnover rates may indicate overheated investor sentiment [3]. - A focus on maintaining market stability and a gradual pace of growth is recommended to attract incremental capital and support long-term market health [3]. Mid-term Outlook - The A-share market is expected to continue its upward trend, driven by the interplay of international order restructuring and domestic industrial innovation [4]. - Recent geopolitical changes and the evolving U.S.-China trade relationship are seen as stabilizing factors for the Chinese market [4]. - The ongoing advancements in AI technology and related sectors are anticipated to sustain high growth and contribute to the revaluation of Chinese assets [4]. Investment Recommendations - Focus on sectors experiencing growth, such as AI technology, innovative pharmaceuticals, and energy storage, which are entering a favorable cycle [5]. - Consider opportunities in export-oriented industries, including home appliances and machinery, which are expected to benefit from global demand [5]. - Monitor cyclical sectors like chemicals and renewable energy for potential recovery as supply-demand dynamics improve [5]. - Emphasize high-dividend stocks for long-term investment strategies, leveraging stable cash flows and lower volatility [5]. - Identify sectors likely to report strong annual performance, such as gold and technology, which are benefiting from high demand in AI [5].

Core Viewpoint - Haid International Holdings Limited, a spin-off from Haid Group, has submitted its IPO application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, aiming for a listing on the main board [2][14]. Business Overview - Haid International is a technology-driven global agricultural enterprise that commenced operations in 2012 after acquiring a factory in Vietnam. The company focuses on providing comprehensive solutions across the entire value chain of the livestock industry, with a core market in Asia (excluding East Asia), Africa, and Latin America [15][17]. - According to Frost & Sullivan, Haid International is the second-largest supplier of aquaculture feed in Asia, with a production capacity of 1 million tons, and the third-largest feed supplier in Vietnam, producing 1.7 million tons of feed products [15][17]. Revenue Sources - The company's revenue is derived from the sale of: 1. Feed products, including aquaculture feed, poultry feed, and pig feed 2. Seed products, including shrimp and fish seeds 3. Animal health products, including environmental modifiers and various animal health products [5][17]. Financial Performance - For the fiscal years ending December 31, 2023, 2024, and the first nine months of 2025, Haid International reported revenues of RMB 9.025 billion, RMB 11.417 billion, and RMB 11.177 billion, respectively. Corresponding net profits were RMB 360 million, RMB 735 million, and RMB 869 million [9][21]. - The gross profit margins for these periods were 12.9%, 15.2%, and 16.8%, indicating a positive trend in profitability [10][22]. Market Presence - The company’s revenue distribution by region shows that Vietnam accounted for 70.6% of total revenue in 2023, followed by Indonesia (11.4%), Ecuador (9.4%), and Egypt (1.4%) [18][22]. Management Team - The board of directors consists of 9 members, including 3 executive directors, 3 non-executive directors, and 3 independent non-executive directors, with key figures such as Zhang Guijun (General Manager) and Xue Hua (Chairman) [9][21]. IPO Underwriters - The IPO is being managed by a team including J.P. Morgan, CICC, and GF Securities as joint sponsors, with Ernst & Young as the auditor [10][22].

Core Themes - The report identifies five core themes for Chinese brokerage stocks this year, including the initiation of re-leveraging to drive return on equity (ROE) expansion, wealth management benefiting from family asset reallocation, growth in investment banking supported by the recovery of onshore markets and strong offshore momentum, offshore expansion enhancing operational leverage and ROE, and ongoing industry consolidation [1] Industry Performance - The average increase in H-shares for brokerages last year was 33%, outperforming the Chinese market, yet stock prices lagged behind earnings upgrades despite strong trading volumes and market performance [1] - Valuation improved from a price-to-book ratio of 0.74 at the end of the previous year to 0.87 at the end of last year, but remains below historical bull market levels [1] - ROE is expected to be around 9% and 10% for last year and this year, respectively, approaching the 11% level seen in 2021 [1] Earnings Projections - Major listed Chinese brokerages are projected to see earnings rise by 46% last year and 15% this year, with Haitong Securities, CICC, and GF Securities expected to outperform the industry due to favorable industry conditions and re-leveraging support [2] - The average daily trading volume in A-shares is forecasted to be RMB 1.8 trillion this year, indicating a year-on-year increase of 5%, leading to a 5% rise in brokerage revenue [2] - Underwriting fees are expected to increase by 16% supported by both onshore and offshore IPOs, while wealth management revenue is projected to rise by 9% due to the expansion of securities asset management scale [2] Cost and Efficiency - Net interest income is anticipated to rise by 27% due to increased financing balances and lower financing costs, while trading income is expected to increase by 8% despite a high base [2] - Cost-saving potential is considered limited, and cost efficiency is deemed important during bull markets, although regulatory authorities maintain a cautious stance on brokerage equity financing [2] - The report favors brokerages with strong capital positions, particularly Haitong Securities, CICC, and GF Securities H-shares, due to their favorable growth prospects and potential for ROE upside [2]