美银证券发布研报称，中资券商股今年迎来五大核心主题，包括再杠杆启动推动净资产收益率（ROE） 扩张；财富管理业务受益于家庭资产重新配置；投行业务增长受在岸市场复苏及离岸市场强劲势头带 动；离岸扩张提振经营杠杆及ROE上行；以及行业持续整合。 该行预计主要上市中资券商去年及今年盈利分别上升46%及15%。受行业利好及再杠杆支撑，海通证券 (02611)、中金公司（601995）(03908)及广发证券（000776）(01776)的盈利增长预计跑赢行业。以A股 今年预测日均成交1.8万亿元人民币（意味同比上升5%）计算，预计经纪业务收入同比上升5%。承销费 收入预计上升16%，受在岸及离岸IPO支持。财富管理收入预计上升9%，受益于证券资产管理规模扩 张。净利息收入预计上升27%，受融资余额增加及融资成本下降支持。交易收入在高基数下预计上升 8%。成本节省空间预计有限。 美银证券提到，成本效率在牛市时较为重要，但监管机构对券商股权融资仍保持审慎态度。该行偏好具 备强劲资本状况的券商，看好海通证券、中金公司及广发证券H股，因其增长前景良好且ROE具备上行 空间。 该行提到，所覆盖H股券商去年平均上涨33%，跑赢中 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a trend of declining deposit interest rates among banks in China, particularly as the new year begins, with many banks entering a "1 era" for their rates, indicating a significant drop in returns for savers [1][2][3]. Group 1: Deposit Rate Changes - Anhui Xin'an Bank has lowered its 2-year fixed deposit rate by 10 basis points to 2.25% starting January 16 [1]. - Several local banks, including Suzhou Commercial Bank and Puyang Zhongyuan Village Bank, have also reduced their deposit rates, with some products now offering rates as low as 1.9% for 3-year deposits [2]. - Major state-owned banks like ICBC and CCB are offering 1-year fixed deposit rates at 1.1%, while some joint-stock banks have slightly higher rates, with CITIC Bank and GF Bank offering 1.3% for 1-year deposits [3]. Group 2: Impact on Large Certificates of Deposit - The attractiveness of large certificates of deposit (CDs) has diminished, with 3-year CDs nearly extinct and 1-year CDs offering rates only marginally higher than regular fixed deposits [4][5]. - Many banks are now issuing new large CDs with rates in the "1 era," and some short-term large CDs have even dropped below 1% [5]. Group 3: Upcoming Expiration of Deposits - A significant volume of fixed deposits is set to mature in 2026, with estimates suggesting around 75 trillion yuan will be due, marking a 12% increase from 2025 [6]. - The first quarter of this year is critical as approximately 29 trillion yuan of 1-year and longer deposits will mature, representing a 4 trillion yuan increase compared to the same period in 2025 [6]. Group 4: "Deposit Migration" Trends - The trend of "deposit migration" is expected to continue, with funds potentially moving from large banks to smaller ones and then into various asset management products [7]. - Analysts suggest that while the current low-interest environment is prompting asset reallocation, the overall risk appetite among residents remains cautious, with consumption and debt repayment being primary uses for maturing deposits [7].

Core Insights - The A-share and Hong Kong IPO markets have shown signs of recovery in 2025, leading to discussions about a potential "IPO boom" [1] - The last significant IPO year for both markets was in 2021, marking a peak in IPO numbers and fundraising [2] A-share Market Summary - In 2025, the number of new A-share listings increased to 116, with total fundraising reaching 131.8 billion yuan, nearly doubling year-on-year [3] - The average fundraising amount per IPO rose significantly to 11.36 million yuan, with average underwriting fees for brokers increasing to 0.58 million yuan [7] - The focus has shifted from quantity to quality, with a notable increase in the "value" of individual projects [7] - The largest IPOs in recent years have transitioned from traditional sectors to technology-driven companies, particularly in semiconductors and renewable energy [11] - Leading brokers like CICC and CITIC Securities have maintained their competitive edge, with CICC involved in three of the largest IPOs in the past five years [12][13] Broker Competition in A-share Market - The competition among brokers has evolved, with CITIC Securities and CICC dominating the top spots in underwriting [13][14] - In 2025, the merger of Haitong Securities and Guotai Junan created a new leader in underwriting volume, while the competition in the lower tiers has intensified [14] - CITIC Securities has consistently led in underwriting revenue, with significant contributions from high-quality projects [15][16] Hong Kong Market Summary - The Hong Kong IPO market has experienced a "V-shaped" recovery, with total fundraising in 2025 exceeding 285.8 billion HKD, reclaiming the top position globally [20] - The average fundraising amount per IPO surged to 24.43 million HKD in 2025, driven by large projects from leading companies [20][22] - The narrative of the Hong Kong IPO market has shifted from internet-driven stories to technology and manufacturing innovations [22] Broker Competition in Hong Kong Market - Foreign investment banks like Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs continue to hold key positions in large IPO projects, while Chinese brokers are increasing their participation [23][24] - The rise of Chinese brokers, particularly in joint underwriting roles, reflects their growing influence in the Hong Kong market [24][25] - Futu Securities has consistently led in the number of IPOs underwritten, while traditional bank-affiliated brokers are also making significant contributions [25][28] Future Outlook - The consensus indicates a more active IPO market in 2026, but challenges related to supply and market absorption capacity are anticipated [29] - The ability of brokers to price assets and manage project depth will be crucial for success in the upcoming years [29]

Group 1 - The A-share and Hong Kong IPO markets have shown signs of recovery in 2025, with A-shares seeing 116 new listings and total fundraising reaching 131.8 billion yuan, nearly doubling year-on-year [1][3] - The Hong Kong market raised over 285.8 billion HKD in IPO funds, reclaiming the top position globally after several years [1][16] - The average fundraising amount per IPO in A-shares increased significantly to 11.36 million yuan, while the average underwriting fee for brokers rose to 0.58 million yuan [3][12] Group 2 - The quality of IPO projects has improved, with a shift from quantity to quality and value in market pricing [4][6] - The leading IPOs in 2025 were dominated by semiconductor and new energy companies, indicating a shift in industry focus from traditional sectors to high-tech fields [6][18] - Major brokers like CICC and CITIC Securities maintained their competitive edge, with CICC involved in three of the largest IPOs in the past five years [7][12] Group 3 - The underwriting landscape has changed, with the merger of Haitong Securities and Guotai Junan creating Guotai Haitong, which took the lead in underwriting numbers in 2025 [10][21] - The competition among brokers has intensified, especially in the lower ranks of the underwriting list, with several firms showing fluctuating positions [10][12] - CITIC Securities has consistently ranked first in underwriting revenue for five consecutive years, highlighting its strong market position [11][12] Group 4 - The Hong Kong IPO market has experienced a "V-shaped" recovery, with significant fundraising in 2025 driven by large projects from leading companies [16][18] - The average fundraising amount in Hong Kong IPOs rebounded to 24.43 million HKD in 2025, reflecting a shift in market dynamics [16][18] - The narrative of the Hong Kong IPO market has transitioned from internet-driven stories to technology innovation and manufacturing upgrades [18][20] Group 5 - Chinese brokers are increasingly participating in Hong Kong IPOs, often in collaboration with foreign firms, indicating a growing influence in the market [19][20] - Futu Securities has emerged as a leader in the number of IPOs underwritten in Hong Kong, leveraging its extensive retail client network [22][24] - Despite leading in the number of projects, internet brokers and bank-affiliated investment banks face challenges in large project competitiveness [24][25]

Group 1: Low Altitude Economy - The low altitude economy is driven by the increasing public safety governance needs and expectations for efficient social management, highlighted by recent low altitude safety incidents [3] - The number of registered drones in China reached 2.213 million by the end of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 74.7%, with 2.726 million registered by June 2025, amplifying potential risks to critical infrastructure [3] Group 2: Automotive Intelligence - The penetration rate of passenger cars equipped with L2 (including L2+) level ADAS reached 57.94% from January to September 2025, an increase of 28.54 percentage points compared to the entire year of 2022, with a peak monthly penetration rate of 62.05% in September 2025 [4] - The demand for higher-level autonomous driving increases the need for onboard perception and data processing capabilities, with the shipment of laser radars exceeding 1.84 million units in the first nine months of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 86%, achieving a penetration rate of 11.47% [5] Group 3: AI and Robotics - The AI sector is transitioning from a technology race to widespread implementation, becoming a core force in reshaping production and life, with a focus on building a modern infrastructure system [6] - The robot industry saw significant breakthroughs in 2025, with new products being tested across various sectors, leading to a surge in investment [7] - The demand for various sensors, main control processors, and high-end microcontrollers in robotics is expected to grow, driven by the need for high-precision environmental modeling and real-time intelligent decision-making [8]

Core Viewpoint - The report from China Merchants Securities forecasts a significant increase in the net profit of listed brokerages for 2025, with a projected non-recurring net profit of 216.7 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 55% [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance Projections - For 2025, the average daily trading volume of stock funds is expected to reach 2.05 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 70%, while the average daily margin balance is projected at 2.08 trillion yuan, up 33% year-on-year [2]. - In Q4 2025, the average daily trading volume of stock funds is anticipated to be 2.43 trillion yuan, reflecting an 18% year-on-year increase, but a 2% decrease quarter-on-quarter [2]. - The brokerage and credit income for 2025 is expected to be 158.9 billion yuan and 50.3 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year increases of 50% and 43% [2]. Group 2: Investment Banking and Asset Management - In 2025, the total funds raised through A-share IPOs and refinancing (excluding the four major banks) are projected to be 130.8 billion yuan and 417.7 billion yuan, marking year-on-year increases of 97% and 69% [3]. - The investment banking revenue for 2025 is expected to reach 39 billion yuan, a 27% increase year-on-year [3]. - By the end of 2025, the net value of non-monetary funds is projected to be 22.7 trillion yuan, an 18% increase from the beginning of the year [3]. Group 3: Proprietary Trading and Market Conditions - The report anticipates that proprietary trading income for 2025 will be 234.1 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 35% [4]. - The market environment is characterized by increased trading volumes and a bullish sentiment, with significant growth in both stock trading and margin financing observed at the beginning of the year [5]. - Regulatory policies in the securities industry are expected to warm up, potentially enhancing the profitability and operational flexibility of brokerages [5].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has shown strong performance at the beginning of 2026, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 4.9% since the start of the year and achieving 17 consecutive days of gains since the end of 2025, ranking among the top global markets [1][2] Market Performance - The A-share market's total trading volume reached a historical high of 3.64 trillion yuan on January 12, 2026, with a turnover rate of 6.7%, the highest since August of the previous year [2][4] - The growth style is predominant, with the ChiNext Index and STAR Market Index rising 5.8% and 12.5% respectively since the beginning of the year; sectors such as media, defense, computer, and non-ferrous metals have seen increases of 21.9%, 20.1%, 16.4%, and 10.0% respectively [2] Factors Supporting Market Strength - Multiple favorable factors have contributed to the strong performance of the A-share market, including optimistic investor expectations for 2026, significant events in the technology sector, and a generally positive outlook for corporate earnings [3] - The recent rise in the renminbi exchange rate, reaching 6.96, has also played a role in supporting market sentiment [3] Short-term Market Considerations - The rapid increase in the market and high trading volume necessitate caution regarding potential short-term volatility, as a turnover rate exceeding 5% often indicates overheated investor sentiment [4] Mid-term Outlook - The company maintains a positive outlook for the A-share market's upward trend, driven by the restructuring of international order and domestic industrial innovation, which are expected to continue supporting the performance of Chinese assets in 2026 [5] Investment Recommendations - Suggested areas for investment include: 1. Growth sectors such as AI technology, which is expected to enter an application phase in 2026, with opportunities in computing power, optical modules, and cloud infrastructure [6] 2. Export-oriented sectors, particularly in home appliances, engineering machinery, commercial vehicles, and non-ferrous metals [6] 3. Cyclical sectors that may benefit from improving supply-demand dynamics, such as chemicals and renewable energy [6] 4. High-dividend stocks, focusing on companies with strong cash flow and dividend certainty [6] 5. Sectors expected to show strong performance in annual reports, including gold and TMT sectors benefiting from AI [6]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential for a compensatory rise in U.S. inflation as predicted by CICC, which may impact the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions and global liquidity [1] Group 1: Inflation Predictions - CICC calculates statistical errors in U.S. inflation and forecasts a rise in CPI data for December 2025, January 2026, and April 2026 [1] - Recent strong U.S. inflation could lead the Federal Reserve to slow down its rate cuts, resulting in tighter global liquidity [1] Group 2: Investment Recommendations - There is an increase in uncertainty for major asset classes in both China and the U.S. due to inflation and liquidity shocks [1] - It is recommended to increase allocation in commodities to hedge against risks [1] - In the event of a pullback in U.S. stocks, gold, and U.S. Treasuries due to inflation and liquidity impacts, it is advised to buy on dips [1]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has shown strong performance at the beginning of 2026, with significant increases in major indices and record trading volumes, driven by multiple favorable factors [2][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of January 12, 2026, the Shanghai Composite Index has risen by 4.9%, marking 17 consecutive days of gains since the end of 2025, outperforming major global markets [2]. - The total trading volume on January 12 reached 3.64 trillion yuan, setting a new historical high [2]. - The ChiNext Index and the STAR Market have seen increases of 5.8% and 12.5% respectively since the beginning of the year [2]. Group 2: Supporting Factors for Market Growth - Investor sentiment for 2026, particularly in the first half, is optimistic, leading to early capital allocation [3]. - Recent events in the technology sector, such as the launch of commercial satellites and advancements in AI applications, have catalyzed interest and investment [3]. - Anticipation of positive earnings forecasts from A-share companies at the end of January, particularly benefiting small and mid-cap stocks, has contributed to market optimism [3]. - The trend of residents reallocating deposits continues, creating a positive feedback loop with market performance [3]. - The recent appreciation of the RMB, reaching 6.96, has also supported market sentiment [3]. Group 3: Short-term Market Considerations - The rapid increase in market performance and trading volume necessitates caution regarding potential short-term volatility [4]. - The turnover rate based on free float market capitalization reached 6.7%, the highest since August of the previous year, indicating heightened investor sentiment [4]. - Historical data suggests that turnover rates exceeding 5% often correlate with increased market volatility, warranting close attention to market dynamics [4]. Group 4: Mid-term Outlook - The company maintains a positive outlook for the A-share market's upward trend, driven by the reconfiguration of international order and China's industrial innovation [5]. - The ongoing changes in global monetary order and capital flows are expected to have a more significant impact than short-term domestic fundamentals [5]. - Recent geopolitical developments and the evolving China-U.S. trade relationship are anticipated to further support the restructuring of monetary order [5]. - Continuous advancements in AI technology and related industries are expected to drive growth and asset revaluation in China [5]. Group 5: Investment Recommendations - Focus areas include AI technology, which is entering an application phase, with opportunities in computing power, optical modules, and cloud infrastructure [6]. - Companies involved in overseas expansion, particularly in sectors like home appliances, engineering machinery, and gaming, are recommended due to their growth potential [6]. - Attention should also be given to cyclical sectors that are nearing improvement points, such as chemicals and renewable energy [6]. - Long-term investment in high-dividend companies is advised, considering the trend of institutional capital entering the market [6]. - Sectors expected to show strong performance in annual reports include gold, TMT benefiting from AI, and non-bank financials [6].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that Haida International has submitted a listing application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with joint sponsors including JPMorgan, CICC, and GF Securities [1] - Haida International is a technology-driven global agricultural company that provides comprehensive solutions for the entire value chain of the livestock industry, primarily based on its feed business [1] - The company's key markets cover Asia (excluding East Asia), Africa, and Latin America [1] Group 2 - According to Frost & Sullivan data, Haida International is projected to be the second-largest aquaculture feed supplier in Asia (excluding East Asia) in 2024, with a production volume of 1 million tons [1] - The company is also the third-largest feed supplier in Vietnam, with a feed product output of 1.7 million tons [1]