Financial Performance - Net profit attributable to shareholders for Q1 2025 was RMB 37,286 million, a decrease of 2.08% year-on-year[7]. - Operating income for Q1 2025 was RMB 83,731 million, down 3.11% from RMB 86,420 million in Q1 2024[7]. - Basic and diluted earnings per share for Q1 2025 were both RMB 1.48, a decline of 1.99% compared to RMB 1.51 in the same period last year[7]. - The weighted average return on equity for Q1 2025 was 14.13%, down 1.95 percentage points from 16.08% in Q1 2024[7]. - Net profit for Q1 2025 was RMB 37,513 million, down from RMB 38,442 million in Q1 2024, a decline of 2.4%[50]. - Total operating income for Q1 2025 was RMB 82,892 million, compared to RMB 85,674 million in Q1 2024, reflecting a decrease of 3.3%[49]. Assets and Equity - Total assets as of March 31, 2025, reached RMB 12,529,792 million, an increase of 3.11% compared to the end of 2024[7]. - Total equity attributable to shareholders as of March 31, 2025, was RMB 1,246,207 million, reflecting a 1.65% increase from RMB 1,226,014 million at the end of 2024[7]. - Total assets reached CNY 12,529.792 billion, an increase of 3.11% from the end of the previous year[16]. - The group's equity attributable to shareholders rose by 1.65% to RMB 12.462 trillion, with retained earnings increasing by 5.85% to RMB 6.712 trillion[27]. Cash Flow - Net cash flow from operating activities for Q1 2025 was RMB 95,026 million, significantly improved from a negative RMB 1,208 million in Q1 2024[7][9]. - The net cash outflow from investment activities in Q1 2025 was RMB 199,933 million, compared to a positive cash flow of RMB 1,119 million in Q1 2024[54]. - The total cash inflow from financing activities in Q1 2025 was negative at RMB 48,655 million, contrasting with a positive inflow of RMB 129,954 million in Q1 2024[54]. - The company reported cash and cash equivalents of RMB 602,891 million as of March 31, 2025, down from RMB 729,079 million at the end of Q1 2024[54]. Loans and Deposits - Total loans and advances amounted to CNY 7,125.479 billion, growing by 3.44% compared to the previous year-end[16]. - Customer deposits totaled CNY 9,319.462 billion, reflecting a 2.45% increase from the previous year-end[16]. - Retail loans increased by RMB 139.53 billion to RMB 36.586 trillion, reflecting a 0.38% growth, supported by a gradual recovery in consumer spending[25]. - Customer deposits reached RMB 9,406,230 million, an increase from RMB 9,195,329 million at the end of 2024[52]. Non-Performing Loans - Non-performing loan balance was CNY 66.743 billion, an increase of CNY 1.133 billion from the previous year-end[17]. - Non-performing loan ratio stood at 0.94%, a decrease of 0.01 percentage points from the previous year-end[17]. - The total non-performing loan balance is CNY 66.743 billion, an increase of CNY 1.133 billion, with a non-performing loan ratio of 0.94%, a decrease of 0.01 percentage points[30]. - The balance of overdue loans is CNY 98.325 billion, an increase of CNY 6.450 billion, with an overdue loan ratio of 1.38%, an increase of 0.05 percentage points[30]. Risk Management - The company will continue to support "white list" projects and strengthen risk management and post-loan management[29]. - The company aims to maintain overall stability in the quality of real estate assets while adhering to compliance and risk control principles[29]. - The company plans to enhance risk management sensitivity and proactive measures in response to the complex external economic environment[37]. Interest Income and Expenses - Net interest income was CNY 52.996 billion, an increase of 1.92% year-on-year[16]. - In Q1 2025, the group achieved net interest income of RMB 52.996 billion, a year-on-year increase of 1.92%, accounting for 63.29% of operating income[18]. - The net interest margin decreased to 1.82%, and the net interest yield fell to 1.91%, down 8 basis points and 11 basis points year-on-year, respectively[18]. - The company received interest income of RMB 67,856 million in Q1 2025, compared to RMB 72,745 million in Q1 2024[54]. Customer Base - The number of ordinary shareholders as of the report date was 434,959, with 407,926 A-share shareholders and 27,033 H-share shareholders[10]. - The number of retail customers reached 212 million, an increase of 0.95% compared to the end of last year[47]. - The number of high-net-worth clients (with average total assets of RMB 500,000 or more) increased to 5.4747 million, a growth of 4.56% year-over-year[47].

Core Viewpoint - The recent trend of banks lowering medium to long-term deposit rates reflects market expectations for future interest rates and is part of banks' efforts to manage liability costs effectively [2][4]. Group 1: Interest Rate Trends - Banks, including China Merchants Bank, have reduced deposit rates, with some experiencing "inversion" in fixed deposit rates [2]. - As of 2024, China Merchants Bank offers 1-year and 2-year deposit rates of 1.60% and 1.70%, respectively, with a minimum deposit of 1,000 yuan, while 3-year and 5-year rates are 1.50% and 1.55% with a lower minimum deposit of 50 yuan [1]. Group 2: Net Interest Margin (NIM) Performance - In 2024, the net interest margin for nine listed banks decreased, with China Merchants Bank maintaining a leading position at 1.98%, despite a decline of 0.17 percentage points from the previous year [3][8]. - The bank's management indicated that the trend of narrowing interest margins may continue, but they aim to improve the extent of the decline compared to the previous year [3][9]. Group 3: Deposit Growth and Cost Management - As of the end of 2024, China Merchants Bank's total customer deposits reached 9.09 trillion yuan, an increase of 11.54% year-on-year, with retail deposits growing by 15.43% [4][5]. - The average cost of customer deposits decreased from 1.62% to 1.54%, although retail deposit costs increased to 1.44% [5][6]. Group 4: Loan Performance and Asset Structure - China Merchants Bank's retail loan balance grew by 6.06% to 3.58 trillion yuan, while corporate loans increased by 11.58% to 2.59 trillion yuan [10][13]. - The average yield on retail loans fell to 4.58%, down from 5.02% the previous year, reflecting a broader trend of declining asset yields [10][11]. Group 5: Future Outlook and Strategy - The bank plans to increase customer deposits by 7%-8% in 2025, focusing on managing high-cost deposits and promoting low-cost deposits [9]. - Management emphasized the importance of retail banking as a competitive advantage and aims to adapt to changing economic conditions through innovative product offerings [15].

海外经济："欧强美弱"遭遇挑战 海外经济"欧强美弱"叙事遭遇阶段性挑战。 关税对美国经济的冲击仍然停留在居民部门，企业部门及就业市场继续表现出较强韧性。 截至4月24日，亚特 兰大联储GDPNOW模型预测Q1消费增速为1.4%，投资增速为7.1%，表现为消费小幅转冷，投资逆势扩张。单 周首次申领失业金人数为22.2万，小幅强于季节性。 随着关税落地，美国经济仍可能进一步转冷。然而，基于当前形势判断，美国经济更可能陷入相对温和的技术 性衰退，不排除避免衰退的可能性。 一是相对强劲的企业部门将承接大部分关税冲击。大通胀期间美国企业部门积累大量利润，企业利润扩张逾八 成，而工人薪资仅增长约三成。根据相关研究，进口商将承担超80%关税成本，消费者仅承担不到20%。 二是就业市场受到供给侧支撑。随着非法移民逐步退出就业市场，美国"劳工荒"形势依然严峻。尽管经济转冷 可能带来雇佣需求的收缩，但移民劳工的退出将令供给同步收缩，最终失业率可能保持稳定。 三是特朗普团队已在面临"一鼓作气，再而衰，三而竭"的窘境。马斯克政府效率部的工作近乎停滞，与美联储 的"降息之争"没有得到足够支持，与全球各国的贸易谈判普遍陷入僵局，对俄乌冲 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [3][7]. Core Views - The company demonstrates stable profitability, low risk, and high dividends, with a current H-share dividend yield of approximately 5%, making it an attractive investment opportunity [7][9]. - The company has effectively managed real estate risks, maintaining strong asset quality and a robust provisioning base, which supports stable performance [6][9]. - The outlook for loan growth is optimistic, with targets set at 7%-8% for 2025, focusing on retail lending as a key growth area [6][8]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue (in million) is projected to be 339,123 in 2023, with a slight decline in 2024 to 337,488, followed by a recovery to 344,327.10 in 2025, and further growth expected in subsequent years [2]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to grow from 146,602 in 2023 to 153,326.11 in 2025, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 3.3% [2][8]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is expected to increase from 5.63 in 2023 to 5.86 in 2025 [2]. Market Data - As of April 24, 2025, the closing price of the company's H-shares was 44.30 HKD, with a market capitalization of approximately 11,172.39 billion HKD [3]. - The company has outperformed the Wind Hong Kong Bank Index by 14 percentage points since early 2024, with a cumulative increase of 77.5% [6]. Key Assumptions - The company anticipates a net profit growth of 3.3%, 5.2%, and 9.6% for the years 2025 to 2027, respectively [8]. - Loan growth is expected to stabilize at 7.0% annually from 2025 to 2027, with a projected non-performing loan ratio of 0.94% during the same period [8]. Observations on Market Perception - The market has not fully recognized the company's unique "defensive and offensive" characteristics, which are expected to provide a safety net in uncertain times [9]. - The company has successfully navigated real estate risks, with a significant reduction in non-performing loans related to real estate, indicating a stable outlook for asset quality [9]. Catalysts for Stock Performance - Key catalysts for stock performance include effective policy implementation, better-than-expected retail recovery, and sustained improvement in real estate sales [10].

为持续贯彻落实中央金融工作会议精神和资本市场"1＋N"政策体系要求，切实发挥托管机构职能，助 力安徽私募基金行业合规健康发展，在安徽证监局指导下，4月24日，安徽省私募基金业协会成功举办 托管专业委员会成立大会暨培训座谈会，安徽证监局、中国证券投资基金业协会（以下简称"中基协"） 相关领导应邀出席致辞并为托管专业委员会成立揭牌。 首届托管专业委员会由中国建设银行担任主任委员单位，由徽商银行、招商证券、招商银行3家机构担 任副主任委员单位，成员单位为辖区具有基金托管资格的14家银行及证券公司。托管专业委员会现场发 布并签署了《自律公约》，达成公平竞争、合规经营、防范风险、保障投资人合法权益、共同促进托管 行业持续健康发展的行业共识。 下一步，安徽省私募基金业协会将在安徽证监局的指导下，在强化专委会功能作用发挥等方面持续担当 作为，依托托管专业委员会凝聚托管行业力量，发挥行业专业优势，建立畅通与监管机构及地方政府的 沟通渠道，共同促进辖区私募行业高质量发展。（齐和宁） 培训座谈环节，中基协相关部门负责人围绕托管专业委员会建设作了专题培训，分享了中基协托管专业 委员会在基金估值、税收研究、行业自律等方面的工作机制与 ...

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银行板块9股本月创新高 4月24日，银行板块逆市上涨，行业指数收盘涨1.16%，领跑市场，中国银行、农业银行、工商银行股价均创历史新高，收盘分别上涨2.1%、2%、 1.83%。从长线来看，本月以来共有9只银行股盘中股价创历史新高，其中建设银行、交通银行、江苏银行等6股在本周一刷新历史高点。 （原标题："大象股"也疯狂！这个板块密集新高） 本月以来，共有9只银行股盘中突破历史新高，包括工农中建四大国有银行股。去年四季度，银行股业绩明显改善，今年一季度亦有多股报喜。银 行板块现金分红金额有望再创新高，12股年度分红超百亿元。 数据显示，本月以来股价突破历史新高的9只银行股中，5股属于国有大型银行，除工农中建四大行外，交通银行亦上榜。4股属于城商行，包括北 京银行、上海银行、江苏银行、成都银行。创新高的银行股今年以来股价稳健上涨，上海银行年内涨幅达到15.52%，工农中建四大行年内涨幅均 在6%以上。 4月以来，市场行情持续震荡，银行板块作为高股息、低估值的避险资产颇受资金青睐。数据显示，农业银行、宁波银行、中信银行近5日获主力 资金净流入均在1亿元以上，此外工商银行、无锡银行、邮储银行获主力资金净流入超6000 ...

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Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The recent increase in the minimum purchase threshold for gold accumulation products by several banks, including China Bank, is a response to the soaring gold prices, which have risen over 30% since the beginning of the year, with international gold prices reaching historical highs of over $3,500 per ounce [1][3]. Group 1: Bank Adjustments - On April 22, China Bank raised the minimum purchase amount for gold accumulation products from 750 yuan to 850 yuan, marking the second increase in April [3]. - Other banks, such as Industrial and Commercial Bank of China and Everbright Bank, have also raised their minimum purchase thresholds for gold accumulation products, with some banks setting the threshold as high as 1,000 yuan [5][3]. - The adjustments are aimed at filtering clients with higher risk tolerance and investment experience while controlling the scale of personal gold accumulation business [5]. Group 2: Market Analysis - The surge in gold prices is attributed to a weaker dollar, uncertainties in trade policies, and hawkish comments from the Federal Reserve regarding stagflation risks [1][7]. - Analysts express concerns about potential short-term corrections in gold prices, as evidenced by a significant reduction in net long positions in gold futures, which dropped over 30% recently [7][8]. - Despite short-term volatility risks, analysts maintain a bullish long-term outlook on gold due to its strategic value as a safe-haven asset amid economic uncertainties [8].

关税博弈主导预期走势，特朗普与美联储的矛盾持续激化。 特朗普关税政策转向缓和，不仅对除中国以外国家暂缓关税90天，而且公开表示将在3-4周内与中国达成协 议。美国经济继续处于非典型转冷状态。一方面，居民部门动能大幅衰减，消费活动濒临收缩。另一方面，企 业部门表现依然稳健，与"劳工荒"共同支撑就业市场。特朗普与美联储矛盾持续激化。考虑到就业市场并未显 著转冷，叠加关税引发的再通胀担忧，以鲍威尔为首的多数美联储官员态度继续偏鹰，对降息持高度谨慎态 度。然而，特朗普团队希望美联储大幅降息以减轻财政付息压力，并激活私人投资，将美国经济从政府驱动转 向私人驱动模式，双方因而爆发激烈冲突，特朗普持续炮轰鲍威尔及美联储。 前瞻地看，特朗普解雇鲍威尔的概率极低，"鹰派"将继续主导美联储政策，以理事沃勒为首的少数鸽派亦难掌 握话语权。预计美联储年内将降息2次50bp，以对冲财政退坡及政策不确定性对企业投资的可能冲击。 境外市场在受到特朗普关税政策的巨大冲击后，本周波动略有降低。美债利率小幅回落至4.3%，美元、人民 币窄幅震荡，黄金继续上涨突破3,300美金。 美股本周下跌，主要因美国对中国芯片出口限制及美联储的态度低于预期。 ...