Investment Rating - The report maintains a Neutral rating for Cisco (CSCO) following its earnings report, with a downgrade to Neutral from a previous rating due to a significant miss in adjusted EBITDA and a below-expectations guidance [3][7]. Core Insights - Cisco's earnings report showed solid results but lacked significant surprises, leading to debates on whether it is a core long-term investment or likely to consolidate due to a lack of upward revisions [3][6]. - There are positive indicators for Cisco, including strong demand for WiFi 7 orders and a potential upgrade cycle for its enterprise campus products, which could provide tailwinds in the future [4][5]. - Investor sentiment around Nvidia (NVDA) remains high, with a notable increase in stock price since April, but recent performance has raised questions about its relative value and market positioning [12][13]. - The software sector is experiencing a cautious sentiment, with many stocks showing signs of being oversold, leading to frustration and confusion among investors regarding the lack of price support despite solid earnings [14][16][17]. - Apple (AAPL) has outperformed the Nasdaq 100 index recently, but September is historically a challenging month for the stock, raising concerns about future performance [19][20]. Summary by Sections Cisco (CSCO) - Cisco's Q4 EPS beat expectations by only 1%, the smallest percentage beat since April 2022, leading to discussions about its long-term viability as a core holding [3][6]. - The company is seeing early demand signals for campus refreshes, particularly with WiFi 7 orders increasing significantly [4][5]. - Security revenue growth was slightly below consensus, raising concerns about Cisco's ability to meet its previous outlook for security and observability [6][7]. Nvidia (NVDA) - Nvidia's stock has increased approximately 100% since April, but recent performance has lagged behind semiconductor indices, prompting discussions about its valuation [12][13]. - Investor confidence in the AI theme remains high, but there are tactical discussions about risk-reward dynamics ahead of upcoming earnings [12][19]. Software Sector - The software sector is currently viewed with caution, with many stocks experiencing significant declines and showing oversold conditions [14][16]. - There is a mix of sentiment among investors, ranging from frustration to optimism about potential opportunities in the sector [17][18]. Apple (AAPL) - Apple has recently outperformed the Nasdaq 100, but the upcoming September period is traditionally challenging for the stock, which could impact future performance [19][20]. Size Factor - The report highlights significant movements in the size factor, indicating notable volatility between small and large-cap stocks, marking one of the largest shifts in the past five years [21][22].

Group 1 - Cisco Systems (CSCO.US) experienced a pre-market decline of 1.4% despite reporting fourth-quarter revenue and earnings per share that exceeded expectations [1] - Goldman Sachs indicated that Cisco's earnings per share forecast for the current fiscal year ranges from $4.00 to $4.06, slightly above the market expectation of $4.02 [1] - The revenue guidance for the current fiscal year is set between $59 billion and $60 billion, with a median growth of 5% year-over-year, aligning with earlier guidance of 4% to 6% growth [1] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs believes that investor expectations for revenue guidance in the current fiscal year may have upward potential, reflecting the equipment replacement cycle in campuses and contributions from artificial intelligence [1] - The outlook, while meeting expectations, is considered slightly disappointing by the market [1]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs reported that Cisco Systems' fourth-quarter revenue and earnings per share exceeded expectations, but the earnings forecast for the current fiscal year is between $4.00 and $4.06, compared to the market expectation of $4.02 [1] Financial Performance - Cisco's revenue guidance for the current fiscal year is set between $59 billion and $60 billion, with a median growth of 5% year-over-year, aligning with the earlier guidance of 4% to 6% growth [1] Investor Sentiment - Goldman Sachs believes that investor expectations for the current fiscal year's revenue guidance may have upward potential, reflecting the equipment replacement cycle in campuses and contributions from artificial intelligence, although the outlook is slightly disappointing [1] Earnings Forecast - Goldman Sachs raised its average earnings per share forecast for Cisco over the next three fiscal years by 5%, based on sustained strong demand in product segments and lower sales costs aligning with the company's gross margin guidance [1] Target Price and Rating - Goldman Sachs currently sets a target price of $71 for Cisco Systems, maintaining a "Neutral" rating [1]

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley has raised the target price for Cisco (CSCO.US) from $78 to $80 [1]

Group 1 - Cisco's Q4 FY2025 performance exceeded market expectations, with revenue growing 8% year-over-year to $14.67 billion and adjusted EPS increasing 14% to $0.99, indicating strong performance amid competitive pressures [1] - The networking business remains a significant revenue driver, with double-digit growth in networking product orders, reflecting robust demand in areas such as network infrastructure, switching equipment, enterprise routing systems, industrial IoT, and servers [1] - Cisco's AI business generated approximately $1 billion in revenue for FY2025, highlighting the rapid growth potential in the AI sector, although competition is intensifying from companies like Broadcom and HPE [1] Group 2 - For FY2026, Cisco's guidance shows cautious optimism, with adjusted EPS expected between $4.00 and $4.06, aligning closely with analyst expectations of $4.03, and projected annual revenue between $59 billion and $60 billion, slightly above the consensus of $59.49 billion [2] - CEO Chuck Robbins emphasized the company's strategy to better meet federal enterprise needs and plans to mitigate risks through acquisitions, such as the $28 billion acquisition of Splunk in 2024 to enhance capabilities in security and monitoring software [2] - Cisco is actively expanding into international markets, partnering with companies in Saudi Arabia and the UAE to capitalize on sovereign AI opportunities, with plans to strengthen these collaborations in the second half of FY2026 [3]

格隆汇8月14日｜全球最大网络设备制造商思科(CSCO.US)对当前财年作出温和预测，令期待人工智能 数据中心项目带来显著增长的投资者感到失望。该公司周三在声明中表示，截至2026年7月的财年销售 额预计将在590亿至600亿美元之间。按中值计算，这与华尔街普遍预期的595亿美元基本持平，但部分 分析师此前预期将突破610亿美元。与众多同行一样，思科正试图从人工智能支出热潮中获益。该公司 表示，人工智能网络基础设施订单超过8亿美元，高于上一季度的6亿美元。思科表示，云计算公司正在 建设新的以人工智能为中心的数据中心，这推动了对以太网网络升级的需求。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Cisco reported a quarterly earnings report that slightly exceeded Wall Street expectations, with a notable surge in AI infrastructure orders, indicating a strong growth opportunity in this sector [1][5][9] Financial Performance - For Q4, adjusted earnings per share were $0.99, slightly above the expected $0.98, while revenue reached $14.7 billion, a year-over-year increase of 8%, surpassing the forecast of $14.62 billion [5] - Net profit for the quarter was $2.82 billion, reflecting a 31% year-over-year growth [5] - The company's guidance for fiscal year 2026 includes revenue projections of $59 billion to $60 billion and adjusted EPS between $4.00 and $4.06, aligning closely with analyst expectations [8] Business Segment Performance - The networking business showed strong performance with revenue of $7.63 billion, a 12% year-over-year increase, exceeding analyst expectations of $7.34 billion [6][5] - Conversely, the security business underperformed, generating $1.95 billion in revenue, which, despite a 9% year-over-year growth, fell short of the $2.11 billion market expectation [7][5] AI Strategy and Outlook - Cisco's AI infrastructure orders exceeded $2 billion for fiscal year 2025, more than double the initial target of $1 billion, with $800 million in AI orders coming from network giants in Q4 alone [5][9] - CEO Chuck Robbins emphasized the significant opportunity presented by AI, asserting that it is not a fleeting trend [1][9] - However, there are concerns regarding the sustainability of this growth, particularly if capital expenditure from cloud giants slows down [11][9] Market Sentiment - Despite the positive earnings report, Cisco's stock fell by 2% in after-hours trading, reflecting investor disappointment over results that were seen as "good but not outstanding" [1] - The stock has risen 19% year-to-date, outperforming the S&P 500's 10% increase, leading to profit-taking pressures [1]

Core Insights - Cisco (CSCO.US) reported a 7.6% revenue growth in its fourth fiscal quarter, reaching $14.7 billion [1] - The adjusted earnings per share (EPS) were $0.99, surpassing market expectations of $0.98 [1] - The adjusted gross margin was 68.4%, slightly above the market forecast of 68.2% [1]

Group 1: Financial Performance - Cisco reported a 7.6% increase in revenue for Q4, reaching $14.7 billion, with adjusted earnings per share of $0.99, slightly above market expectations of $0.98 [1] - The adjusted gross margin was 68.4%, exceeding the market expectation of 68.2% [1] - Network business revenue was $7.34 billion, aligning with expectations, while service revenue was $3.79 billion [1] Group 2: Future Guidance - For the fiscal year ending July 2026, Cisco forecasts revenue between $59 billion and $60 billion, consistent with Wall Street's average expectation of $59.5 billion [3] - The company anticipates adjusted earnings per share for the year to be between $4.00 and $4.06, aligning with the expected $4.03 [3] - For Q1 of fiscal 2026, Cisco expects revenue between $14.65 billion and $14.85 billion, with a midpoint of $14.75 billion, higher than the expected $14.65 billion [3] Group 3: AI and Market Position - Cisco's AI business revenue is projected to reach approximately $1 billion by fiscal 2025, amidst increasing competition from companies like Broadcom and HPE [4] - The company is focusing on government contracts and has made a strategic acquisition of Splunk for $28 billion to enhance its security and monitoring software business [4] - Cisco has secured over $800 million in AI infrastructure orders from large cloud service providers in the last quarter, doubling its initial target for fiscal 2025 [7] Group 4: Strategic Partnerships and Growth Opportunities - Cisco has partnered with AI companies in the Middle East, including Humain in Saudi Arabia, and plans to strengthen these collaborations in the second half of fiscal 2026 [7][8] - The company aims to become a core system supplier for large-scale AI training and inference clusters, anticipating growth in sovereign AI opportunities [8] - Cisco's stock has increased nearly 20% this year, reflecting investor confidence in its performance and future prospects [8]

Core Viewpoint - Cisco's stock price fell by 4% in after-hours trading, with the company projecting an adjusted EPS of $4.00 to $4.06 for the fiscal year 2026, slightly above analysts' expectations of $4.03 [1] Financial Performance - The projected adjusted EPS for fiscal year 2026 is between $4.00 and $4.06 [1] - Analysts had anticipated an adjusted EPS of $4.03, indicating a slight positive outlook from the company's forecast [1]