Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the successful integration of online and offline sales channels by Feihe, a leading infant formula brand, through a brand joint operation model on Douyin, resulting in significant sales growth and customer acquisition [4][10][51]. Group 1: Online and Offline Integration - Feihe has achieved impressive results in just two months, with single live-stream sales exceeding 3.5 million yuan, ranking first on Douyin's national brand sales list [4][10]. - The brand joint operation model launched by Douyin on April 29 supports retail brands with offline sales but no independent stores, offering incentives such as commission waivers and local advertising support [4][11]. - The strategy involves selling popular products and vouchers in live streams, directing users to nearby supermarkets and chain stores for redemption, thus converting online traffic into offline sales [4][16][19]. Group 2: Customer Engagement and Acquisition - During a two-week live streaming event, Feihe collaborated with over 80 stores in South China, showcasing popular products and large vouchers to attract online users to physical stores [8][9]. - The live streams featured high engagement, with peak online viewers exceeding 8,300, driven by a combination of executive endorsements, cultural aesthetics, and attractive offers [7][8]. - The promotional strategy included offering vouchers like "600 yuan off 700 yuan," making it convenient for consumers to redeem them at local stores, similar to group buying platforms [9][19]. Group 3: Support and Incentives - Douyin's support measures include zero commission and 1:1 local advertising matching for brands that join by June 30, allowing for rapid market entry and cost reduction [26][27]. - The local push advertising tool is designed to target specific geographic areas, enhancing the effectiveness of marketing efforts for brands like Feihe [33][34]. - The financial support from Douyin helps brands lower operational costs while increasing GMV and accumulating more offline consumers [36][30]. Group 4: User Retention and Long-term Value - Feihe's strategy has resulted in a significant influx of new customers, with 90% of viewers being new users and 95% of them visiting stores, indicating effective customer acquisition [38][46]. - The high average first-order value of over 450 yuan reflects the brand's ability to attract quality customers who are likely to return [38][50]. - The partnership with chain stores like Aiying Island and Kidswant not only boosts immediate sales but also fosters long-term customer loyalty, as parents tend to stick with trusted brands for essential products like infant formula [50][51].

Core Viewpoint - The company anticipates a decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, primarily due to inventory reduction and the impact of a fertility subsidy program [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - The company expects to achieve revenue of 9.1-9.3 billion for H1 2025, representing a year-on-year decline of 7.9%-9.9% [1]. - The projected net profit for H1 2025 is estimated to be between 1.0-1.2 billion, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 36%-47% [1]. - The company plans to allocate no less than 1.0 billion for share buybacks and expects to distribute dividends of at least 2.0 billion in 2025, down from 2.72 billion in the previous year [1][2]. Group 2: Market Outlook - The company forecasts low single-digit growth for full-year revenue, with H2 2025 revenue expected to increase by 10%-15% [2]. - The anticipated completion of inventory adjustments in Q3 2025 is expected to positively impact revenue [2]. - The company plans to launch higher-end products in H2 2025, which may drive revenue improvement [2]. Group 3: Investment Strategy - The company has announced a share buyback plan and a commitment to dividend distribution, enhancing shareholder returns [2][3]. - The long-term outlook remains positive due to expected recovery in newborn population growth and the implementation of fertility subsidies, suggesting a potential industry improvement cycle of 2-3 years [2]. - The company has adjusted its earnings forecasts for 2025-2027, with a target price set at 5.1 HKD and a recommendation downgrade to "recommended" [3].

机构：中金公司 研究员：陈文博/王文丹/方云朋 预告1H25 盈利同比下降36-47% 启动不少于10 亿元股份回购，全年派息额不低于20 亿元。公司拟启动不低于10 亿元的股份回购用于潜 在员工激励计划，公告25 年派息不低于20亿人民币，相当于25 年我们利润预期的60%以上，彰显公司 对于提升股东回报的决心。考虑公司覆盖全生命周期营养产品的长期布局，未来公司有望在功能营养事 业及儿青事业获取更多增量。同时我们认为去库存利好公司渠道稳健稳定发展，短期虽有影响，但长期 利好公司竞争力进一步夯实。 盈利预测与估值 由于公司去库存调整及大包粉减值，我们下调25/26 年盈利预测26%/16%至28.7/36.6 亿元，当前交易在 13/10 倍25/26 年P/E；下调目标价27%至6 港币，对应18/14 倍25/26 年P/E和31%上行空间，维持跑赢行 业评级。 飞鹤发布盈利预警公告：预计1H25 收入91-93 亿元，同比下降7.9-9.9%，预计1H25 净利润10-12 亿元， 同比下滑36-47%，低于市场预期，主因去库存调整及大包粉减值。 关注要点 去库存及奶粉补贴多重影响致收入低于市场预期，利 ...

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - On July 9, 37 Hong Kong-listed companies conducted share buybacks, totaling 49.01 million shares and an amount of 1.129 billion HKD [1][2]. Group 1: Buyback Details - Tencent Holdings repurchased 1.005 million shares for 500 million HKD, with a highest price of 504.000 HKD and a lowest price of 495.200 HKD, accumulating a total buyback amount of 39.543 billion HKD for the year [1][2]. - WuXi Biologics repurchased 11.5 million shares for 298 million HKD, with a highest price of 26.150 HKD and a lowest price of 25.650 HKD, accumulating a total buyback amount of 1.708 billion HKD for the year [1][2]. - AIA Group repurchased 4 million shares for 274 million HKD, with a highest price of 68.950 HKD and a lowest price of 68.050 HKD, accumulating a total buyback amount of 16.935 billion HKD for the year [1][2]. Group 2: Buyback Rankings - The highest buyback amount on July 9 was from Tencent Holdings at 500 million HKD, followed by WuXi Biologics at 298 million HKD [1][2]. - The largest number of shares repurchased on July 9 was by WuXi Biologics at 11.5 million shares, followed by Ying Group and China Aluminum Can with 8 million shares and 5 million shares, respectively [1][2]. Group 3: Additional Buyback Information - China Feihe conducted its first buyback of the year, while Tencent Holdings has conducted multiple buybacks totaling 39.543 billion HKD for the year [2]. - A detailed table of buybacks on July 9 includes various companies, their stock codes, number of shares repurchased, buyback amounts, highest and lowest prices, and cumulative buyback amounts for the year [2][3].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for China Feihe (06186.HK) has been downgraded to "Recommended" due to lower-than-expected performance [2][7]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve revenue of 9.1-9.3 billion with a year-on-year decline of 7.9%-9.9% and a net profit of 1-1.2 billion, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 36%-47% for the first half of 2025 [2][7]. - The company plans to invest no less than 1 billion in share buybacks and expects to distribute dividends of no less than 2 billion in 2025, down from 2.72 billion in the same period last year [2][7]. - The company anticipates low single-digit growth for the full year, with a projected revenue increase of 10%-15% in the second half of 2025 [7]. Financial Summary - Total revenue (million) for 2024 is projected at 20,749, with a slight increase to 20,766 in 2025, and further growth to 22,054 in 2026 [4]. - The net profit (million) is expected to decline from 3,570 in 2024 to 3,025 in 2025, before recovering to 3,602 in 2026 [4]. - Earnings per share (CNY) are forecasted to decrease from 0.39 in 2024 to 0.33 in 2025, with a gradual increase to 0.40 in 2026 [4]. Market Performance - The target price for the stock is set at 5.1 HKD, with the current price at 4.58 HKD [4][7]. - The company maintains a market capitalization of 41.5 billion HKD and a total share capital of 9.067 billion shares [5][7]. Industry Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from a recovery in newborn population growth and the implementation of fertility subsidies, which may improve industry conditions over the next 2-3 years [7]. - The company is positioned as a leading brand in the infant formula market, with a strong channel foundation and plans to launch higher-end products in the second half of 2025 [7].

Group 1 - The infant formula market is experiencing a recovery in the first half of 2025, with several companies reporting positive earnings forecasts, indicating sustained growth [1][2] - Child King (301078.SZ) expects a net profit of 120 million to 160 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 50% to 100%, driven by steady growth in self-operated business and the expansion of its franchise model in lower-tier markets [2] - Health and Happiness Group (01112.HK) reported single-digit revenue growth, with a strong performance in the ultra-premium infant formula segment, increasing its market share from 13% to 15.8% [2] Group 2 - According to Nielsen IQ data, the total sales of infant formula maintained growth for three out of five months leading up to May 25, 2025, with strong sales in the first and second stages of formula [3] - After four years of decline, the domestic birth rate increased to 9.54 million in 2024, contributing to the recovery of the infant formula market, although there are concerns about a potential slight decline in birth rates in 2025 [6] Group 3 - A subsidy war initiated in April 2025 has intensified competition in the infant formula market, with several companies, including China Feihe (06186.HK) and Yili (600887.SH), launching substantial subsidy programs [7][8] - The subsidy strategy primarily involves offering free formula, leading to consumer behavior where multiple brands' products are exchanged among consumers, complicating sales for companies [7][8] - China Feihe issued a profit warning, expecting revenue between 9.1 billion and 9.3 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, down from 10.1 billion yuan in the same period of 2024, attributing the decline to the subsidy program [8]

Group 1 - HSBC Global Research has lowered the target price for China Feihe (06186.HK) to HKD 4.9 and maintained a "Hold" rating [1] - The company issued a profit warning for its interim results, expecting a year-on-year net profit decline of 36% to 46% [1] - Revenue for 2025 is now expected to remain flat year-on-year, a revision from a previous forecast of a 9% increase, with net profit estimates for 2025 down by 31% [1] Group 2 - The total dividend payout forecast has been reduced by 34% to RMB 2 billion [1]

Core Viewpoint - China Feihe (06186.HK) experienced a significant stock decline of 17.37% following a profit warning, with projected revenues and net profits for the upcoming six months showing substantial decreases compared to the previous year [2][4]. Financial Performance - The company expects revenues between 9.1 billion to 9.3 billion yuan, a decrease of approximately 10.1 billion yuan compared to the same period in 2024 [2]. - Projected net profits are estimated to be between 1 billion to 1.2 billion yuan, down by about 1.9 billion yuan from 2024 [2]. Reasons for Decline - The revenue and profit decline is attributed to four main factors: 1. Provision of fertility subsidies to consumers leading to reduced income 2. Lowering of channel inventory for infant formula 3. Decrease in government subsidies received 4. Impairment provisions for whole milk powder products [2]. Market Outlook - The infant formula market in China is expected to see a marginal improvement in demand due to a projected rebound in birth rates in 2024, which will positively impact the industry in 2025 [3]. - China Feihe is positioned as a market leader in the infant formula sector, with revenue forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 estimated at 22.17 billion, 23.63 billion, and 25.17 billion yuan respectively [3]. Share Buyback Plan - In response to the performance decline, China Feihe announced a share buyback plan to repurchase up to 10% of its issued shares, totaling approximately 907 million shares, with a minimum of 1 billion yuan allocated from existing cash reserves and free cash flow [5][6]. - The board expressed confidence in the company's long-term growth prospects through this buyback initiative [6]. Dividend Expectations - The board anticipates a total dividend of no less than 2 billion yuan for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2025, aimed at providing ongoing returns to shareholders [6].

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a decline in the three major indices, with the Hang Seng Index down by 0.45%, the Hang Seng Tech Index down by 0.15%, and the National Enterprises Index down by 0.44% [1] Sector Performance - Cryptocurrency stocks saw a positive trend, with Guotai Junan International (01788.HK) rising over 8% [1] - Education stocks performed well, with Huaxia Holdings (01981.HK) and China Oriental Education (00667.HK) each increasing by over 3% [1] - Real estate stocks rebounded, with companies like Sunac China (01918.HK), China Jinmao (00817.HK), and China Resources Land (01109.HK) showing gains [1] - Other sectors such as nuclear power, elderly care, food, electricity, gaming, and new consumption also saw early gains [1] Notable Declines - Dairy product stocks faced significant losses, particularly China Feihe (06186.HK), which dropped over 17%, reaching a new low in 188 trading days [1] - Sectors such as biomedicine, gold, non-ferrous metals, and Apple-related stocks experienced declines [1]

Core Insights - The article discusses recent developments in the nutrition and health industry, highlighting regulatory changes, new product approvals, and market trends that could impact investment opportunities [2][3][4][5][6]. Regulatory Developments - The State Administration for Market Regulation issued a guideline clarifying the definition of commercial advertising under the Advertising Law, addressing ongoing disputes in advertising enforcement [2]. - The National Health Commission approved D-alloheptulose and four other substances as new food raw materials, indicating a push for innovation in the nutrition sector [3]. - The market regulator released multiple responses to proposals regarding health food regulations, signaling a focus on traditional Chinese medicine formulations as a potential growth area [4]. Market Trends and Investment Opportunities - Yangtuo Technology Inc. submitted an IPO application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, aiming to raise funds for market expansion and supply chain optimization, reflecting growing investor interest in the nutrition and health sector [5]. - A report on 68 nutrition and health companies showed an average market value increase of 20% in the first half of the year, driven by rising consumer health awareness and demand for nutritional products [6]. Company Performance - New Hope Liuhe (002001) projected a net profit of 3.3 billion to 3.75 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 50% to 70% [12]. - Brother Technology (002562) expects a net profit of 60 million to 75 million yuan for the same period, marking an increase of 325% to 431% compared to the previous year [13]. New Product Launches - Guangji Pharmaceutical (000952) received a notice of administrative penalty for information disclosure violations, indicating regulatory scrutiny in the sector [14]. - TCM brand Tongrentang launched its first OTC glucosamine product, expanding its product line in the bone and joint health category [14].