公司研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 中国飞鹤（06186.HK）2024 年报点评 强推（维持） 方向明确，节奏待提 目标价：7.5 港元 事项： 公司发布 2024 年报。24 年实现主营收入 207.49 亿元，同比+6.23%，净利润 36.54 亿元，同比+11.06%，归母净利润 35.7 亿元，同比+5.31%。其中，24H2 实现主营收入 106.54 亿元，同比+8.74%，净利润 17.43 亿元，同比+4.25%， 归母净利润 16.95 亿元，同比+0.06%。同时，公司宣布派发每股 0.1632 港元 股息，结合中期股息年度累计每股派发 0.3264 港元股息，合计发放红利人民 币 27.2 亿元，分红率约 74%。 评论： 食品饮料 2025 年 04 月 01 日 当前价：5.87 港元 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：欧阳予 邮箱：ouyangyu@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360520070001 证券分析师：范子盼 邮箱：fanzipan@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360520090001 证券分析师：董广阳 电话：021-20572598 邮箱：dongguang ...

2025 年 3 月 31 日 | 总股本(亿股) | 90.67 | | --- | --- | | 总市值(亿港元)： | 532.25 | | 一年最低/最高(港元)： | 3.26/7.38 | | 近 3 月换手率(%)： | 21.16 | 公司研究 政府补助减少拖累 24H2 利润，开始实施全龄营养战略 ——中国飞鹤（6186.HK）2024 年年度业绩点评 买入（维持） 当前价：5.87 港元 作者 分析师：陈彦彤 执业证书编号：S0930518070002 021-52523689 chenyt@ebscn.com 分析师：汪航宇 执业证书编号：S0930523070002 021-52523174 wanghangyu@ebscn.com 分析师：聂博雅 执业证书编号：S0930522030003 021-52523808 nieboya@ebscn.com | 市场数据 | | --- | 股价相对走势 -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 24/04 24/05 24/06 24/07 24/08 24/09 24/10 24/11 24/12 25/01 25/0 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for China Feihe (06186) [2][17] Core Views - The infant formula business is expected to return to growth in 2024, with a positive outlook for 2025 [1][7] - Despite challenges in the infant formula industry due to declining birth rates, China Feihe's strong brand recognition and distribution network position it well for market share expansion [7][8] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for China Feihe are as follows: - 2023: 19,532 million - 2024: 20,749 million (6% YoY growth) - 2025E: 21,751 million (5% YoY growth) - 2026E: 22,713 million (4% YoY growth) - 2027E: 23,630 million (4% YoY growth) [3][8] - Net profit forecasts are as follows: - 2023: 3,390 million - 2024: 3,570 million (5% YoY growth) - 2025E: 3,862 million (8% YoY growth) - 2026E: 4,024 million (4% YoY growth) - 2027E: 4,191 million (4% YoY growth) [3][8] - Earnings per share (EPS) projections: - 2023: 0.37 - 2024: 0.39 - 2025E: 0.43 - 2026E: 0.44 - 2027E: 0.46 [3][8] Market Data - As of March 31, 2025, the closing price is HKD 5.87, with a market capitalization of HKD 532.25 billion [4][7] - The 52-week high and low prices are HKD 7.38 and HKD 3.39, respectively [4] Business Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 20,749 million, a 6.23% increase YoY, and a net profit of 3,570 million, a 5.31% increase YoY [7] - The company’s infant formula segment generated revenue of 19,062 million, with a 6.63% increase YoY, maintaining a market share of 20.5% [7][8] - The gross margin for 2024 was 66.34%, an increase of 1.5 percentage points YoY, driven by an improved product mix [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for China Feihe (06186.HK) [1][2][3] Core Views - China Feihe is expected to benefit from a rebound in newborn numbers, leading to accelerated revenue growth in the second half of 2024. The company is improving its product structure, which is expected to enhance gross margins, despite a decrease in government subsidies and an increase in tax rates affecting net profit margins. The company has increased its cash dividend to 2.72 billion yuan, with a payout ratio of 76%, resulting in a dividend yield of approximately 5% [1][2][6] Financial Performance - For 2024, China Feihe's revenue is projected to be 20.75 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 6.2%, while net profit is expected to reach 3.65 billion yuan, up 11.1% year-on-year. The second half of 2024 is anticipated to show a revenue growth of 8.7% year-on-year [1][6][7] - The company achieved a gross margin of 66.3% in 2024, an increase of 1.5 percentage points year-on-year, driven by improvements in product structure and a decrease in raw material costs [6][7][12] - The earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2025 and 2026 is 0.44 yuan and 0.49 yuan, respectively, with a current price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 14 times for 2025 [1][2][7] Market Position - China Feihe's market share is steadily increasing, supported by ongoing investments in consumer education and a recovery in the infant formula sector. The company organized 920,000 face-to-face events in 2024, and online sales accounted for 22.9% of total revenue [1][2][6] Valuation Metrics - The current stock price is 6.59 HKD, with a total market capitalization of 59.8 billion HKD. The company has a return on equity (ROE) of 13.2% and a debt-to-asset ratio of 24.1% [3][6][12]

Core Viewpoint - China Feihe's 2024 annual performance report indicates a revenue of 20.75 billion yuan, a 6% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of 3.65 billion yuan, an 11% increase, driven by a structural recovery in the milk powder industry and increased consumer confidence in domestic products [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In 2024, the revenue from infant formula products reached 19.06 billion yuan, growing by 6.6% compared to the previous year [1] - Other dairy products, including adult milk powder, liquid milk, and rice flour, generated revenue of 1.514 billion yuan, reflecting a 6.3% increase [1] - Revenue from nutritional supplements was 173 million yuan, marking a significant growth of 25.4% [1] Group 2: Market Position - According to Frost & Sullivan, Feihe has maintained the top sales position in the infant formula market in China for six consecutive years and globally for four years [1] Group 3: International Expansion - In 2024, Feihe accelerated its international expansion, with a strategic partnership established between its Canadian subsidiary and Munchkin, a U.S. baby products company [1] - The Canadian infant formula production facility officially commenced operations in September of the previous year [1] - Revenue from mainland China was 20.55 billion yuan, while revenue from the U.S. and Canada was 160 million yuan and 38.51 million yuan, respectively, all showing varying degrees of growth [1] Group 4: Research and Innovation - Continuous R&D innovation is identified as a core driver of Feihe's steady growth, with collaborations with top research teams from institutions like Peking University and Harvard BCH [2] - In 2024, Feihe added 153 new domestic and international authorized patents, bringing the total to 659 [2] - The company received the TPM award, often referred to as the "Nobel Prize" in manufacturing [2] Group 5: Product Development - Feihe launched new products such as "Supernova Cheese" to meet personalized nutritional needs across the lifecycle [2] - The company introduced a new technology for extracting whey protein, marking the beginning of a new era in functional nutrition [2] - Feihe's chairman emphasized the commitment to ongoing innovation in areas such as breast milk research and brain development [2]

Financial Performance - The group's revenue for the year ended December 31, 2024, was RMB 20,748.6 million, an increase of 6.2% compared to the previous year[2] - The group's gross profit for the same period was RMB 13,764.8 million, reflecting an 8.7% increase year-over-year[2] - The net profit for the year was RMB 3,654.1 million, which represents an 11.1% increase from the previous year[2] - Basic and diluted earnings per share were both RMB 0.39, up from RMB 0.37 in 2023[2] - The company reported a total comprehensive income of RMB 3,570.1 million for the year, compared to RMB 3,444.0 million in 2023[5] - The group’s profit before tax for 2024 was RMB 3,390,009,000, compared to RMB 3,570,125,000 in 2023, showing a decrease of approximately 5%[39] - The total tax expense for the year was RMB 1,895,606,000, an increase from RMB 1,559,940,000 in 2023, representing an increase of about 21%[35] - The group operated 42 Vitamin World USA retail stores in the U.S. as of December 31, 2024, employing 199 people, generating RMB 172.9 million in revenue from nutritional supplements[50] - Profit before tax increased by 14.4% from RMB 4,850.3 million in 2023 to RMB 5,549.7 million in 2024[66] - Net profit increased by 11.1% from RMB 3,290.4 million in 2023 to RMB 3,654.1 million in 2024[68] Dividends - The board proposed a final dividend of HKD 0.1632 per share, compared to HKD 0.1484 per share in 2023, totaling approximately HKD 1,479,775,000 (approximately RMB 1,351,924,000) for the interim dividend[2] - The company declared an interim dividend of HKD 0.1632 per share for 2024, up from HKD 0.1349 per share in 2023, which corresponds to approximately RMB 1.35 billion compared to RMB 1.14 billion in the previous year[36] - The dividend policy aims to distribute no less than 30% of the net profit for each fiscal year, depending on future investment plans[94] - The annual general meeting will be held on May 29, 2025, to discuss the proposed final dividend for 2024[95] - To qualify for the 2024 final dividend, all share transfer documents must be submitted by June 3, 2025[97] - The final dividend is expected to be paid to shareholders listed on June 5, 2025[97] Assets and Liabilities - Total assets less current liabilities amounted to RMB 29,134.7 million as of December 31, 2024, compared to RMB 28,812.4 million in 2023[6] - The company's non-current assets totaled RMB 13,477.1 million, slightly down from RMB 13,640.4 million in the previous year[6] - The company's cash and cash equivalents were RMB 9,321.2 million, down from RMB 10,440.9 million in 2023[6] - The total assets of the company as of December 31, 2024, were RMB 35,725,706, compared to RMB 36,194,678 in 2023, indicating a slight decrease[21] - The total liabilities for the year ended December 31, 2024, were RMB 8,318,321, a decrease from RMB 9,860,332 in 2023[21] Revenue Breakdown - Revenue from infant formula products reached RMB 19,061.6 million, accounting for 91.9% of total revenue, with a year-on-year growth of 6.6%[56] - Revenue from the mainland China market increased to RMB 20,545,954 in 2024, up from RMB 19,287,735 in 2023, representing a growth of 6.5%[23] - Sales to external customers in the raw milk segment amounted to RMB 154,290, while the dairy products and nutritional supplements segment generated RMB 20,594,260, contributing to a total of RMB 20,748,550[21] - The total revenue from e-commerce for 2024 was RMB 69,813,000, significantly up from RMB 21,659,000 in 2023, marking an increase of about 223%[32] Expenses - The cost of goods sold for 2024 was RMB 6,983,747,000, compared to RMB 6,868,850,000 in 2023, indicating an increase of about 1.7%[33] - Sales and distribution expenses increased by 7.0% to RMB 7,181.2 million, mainly due to higher advertising costs and online sales platform expenses[62] - Administrative expenses decreased by 4.6% to RMB 1,681.3 million, mainly due to reduced share-based payment expenses[63] - Other income and net gains decreased by 11.7% from RMB 1,659.5 million in 2023 to RMB 1,465.1 million in 2024, primarily due to reduced government subsidies[61] Market and Consumer Insights - The average disposable income in China reached RMB 41,314 in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate of 6.1% from 2019 to 2024, enhancing consumer purchasing power[43] - The number of newborns in China is projected to increase from approximately 9.5 million in 2024 due to supportive measures, despite a decline from 10.48‰ in 2019 to 6.77‰ in 2024[43] - The demand for high-end infant formula products is anticipated to grow, supported by rising disposable income and health awareness among consumers[43] - Urbanization and rising disposable income levels are expected to enhance consumer purchasing power, particularly in lower-tier cities and rural areas[43] Corporate Governance and Compliance - The company emphasizes its commitment to corporate governance and has adopted the corporate governance code as per the Hong Kong Stock Exchange[86] - The company has established an audit committee to oversee financial reporting and risk management, consisting of three members[91] - The company has confirmed compliance with the standards for securities trading by its directors during the reporting period[88] Strategic Initiatives - The company plans to continue expanding its overseas market presence, enhancing the global influence of the Feihe brand, and aims to position itself as a "global Feihe"[84] - The company is focusing on innovation in areas such as breast milk research, brain development research, and protein technology, aiming for breakthroughs in comprehensive nutrition[84] - The group is leveraging e-commerce platforms and its own website to directly sell products, targeting the younger generation of consumers[48] - The group aims to achieve an optimal balance of key components in infant formula by closely simulating the composition of breast milk from Chinese mothers[45]

长按即可免费加入哦 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者： 只买消费垄断 来源：雪球 亿海国际2016年上市。当时不到3块钱。市值不到30亿。2015年公司收入8.4亿，利润1.25亿。当 时大概20多倍市盈率。很合理。 但是随后，其利润从1.25亿，连续高速增长到2019年的7.9亿利润，42亿收入，收入涨了5倍，利 润涨了6倍多。5年利润能涨6倍，是年35%的利润高增长。于是市场彻底疯了，给其1200亿市值。 市盈率150倍。股价从最低2.6涨到148. 涨了57倍。就是因为2020年的时候，市场一致预期这种高 速的利润增长会长期持续。 可是2020年突然来了疫情，海底捞火锅店生意受到影响，其利润暴跌。毛利率也从39%跌到 30%。2019年到2022年，连续3年利润停滞增长。市场又一致预期其利润未来无法增长。价格从 148最低跌到9块。现在也只有15块。是高点的10分之1. 市盈率从150倍跌到17倍。 其实现在的亿海国际利润和2020年差不多的。但是股价可以差10倍。公司还是那个公司。不是 2020年高估了，就是现在低估了。或者一直在高估。这个每个 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 中国飞鹤（06186.HK）深度研究报告 强推（首次） 经营反转周期正展开 目标价：7.5 港元 [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2023 | 2024E | | 2025E | 2026E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（百万元） | 19,532 | 21,020 | | 22,801 | 24,325 | | YoY | -8.3% | 7.6% | | 8.5% | 6.7% | | 归母净利润（百万 元） | 3,390 | 3,875 | | 4,481 | 4,976 | | YoY | -31.4% | 14.3% | | 15.7% | 11.0% | | 每股盈利（元） | 0.37 | 0.43 | | 0.49 | 0.55 | | 市盈率（倍） | 14.6 | 12.8 | | 11.1 | 10.0 | | 市净率（倍） | 2.0 | 1.9 | | 1.7 | 1.6 | | 资料来源：公司公告， | 华创证券预测 | 注：股价为 2025 | 年 3 | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Feihe (6186 HK) with a target price of HKD 7.40 [7][8]. Core Views - The implementation of fertility stimulus policies is expected to enhance the birth rate and benefit leading infant formula companies like China Feihe [1][2]. - The infant formula industry is experiencing a rationalization of competition, with overall pricing stabilizing, which is expected to support revenue growth for the company [2][3]. - The company is anticipated to benefit from improved operational efficiency and reduced costs, leading to an increase in profit margins [3][4]. Summary by Sections Investment Rating - The investment rating for China Feihe is "Buy" with a target price set at HKD 7.40, reflecting an upward adjustment from a previous target of HKD 4.49 [4][7]. Market and Policy Environment - Recent government policies aimed at boosting birth rates include direct financial support for families, which is expected to positively impact the demand for infant formula [1][2]. - The number of newborns in China is projected to increase by 52,000 (+5.8%) in 2024, reaching 9.54 million [2]. Financial Performance and Projections - Revenue for 2024 is expected to reach RMB 20.84 billion, marking a 6.68% increase from the previous year, with net profit projected at RMB 3.83 billion [6][17]. - The company’s EPS is forecasted to grow from RMB 0.37 in 2023 to RMB 0.42 in 2024, and further to RMB 0.50 by 2026 [4][17]. - The report highlights a projected reduction in the company's expense ratio, which is expected to enhance profit margins [3][4]. Competitive Position - As a leading player in the infant formula market, China Feihe is well-positioned to capitalize on the recovery in industry demand and the consolidation of market share [3][4]. - The company has implemented digital management strategies to optimize inventory and pricing, which are expected to contribute to revenue growth in 2024 [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [7] Core Views - The implementation of fertility stimulus policies is expected to enhance the birth rate and benefit the leading infant formula company [1][2] - The company is positioned to benefit from industry demand recovery and increased market concentration, with anticipated revenue growth in 2024 [3] - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts upward, expecting EPS of 0.42, 0.46, and 0.50 RMB for 2024-2026, respectively [4] Summary by Sections Investment Rating - The target price is set at 7.40 HKD, with the current closing price at 5.93 HKD, indicating significant upside potential [8][7] Industry Outlook - The number of newborns in China is projected to increase by 52,000 (+5.8%) in 2024, reaching 9.54 million [2] - Local governments are rolling out child-rearing subsidies, which may be replicated in other provinces, positively impacting birth rates and infant formula consumption [2] Company Performance - The company is expected to achieve positive revenue growth in 2024, driven by improved inventory management and stable pricing of core products [3] - The gross margin is projected to improve due to declining raw material costs and effective cost control measures [3] - The company plans to distribute a mid-term dividend of 1.35 billion RMB in 2024, reflecting a high dividend payout ratio of 72% [3] Financial Projections - Revenue is forecasted to grow from 20,838 million RMB in 2024 to 22,775 million RMB in 2026, with a CAGR of approximately 4.10% [6] - Net profit is expected to increase from 3,832 million RMB in 2024 to 4,493 million RMB in 2026, with a CAGR of approximately 8.13% [6] - The company’s EPS is projected to rise from 0.42 RMB in 2024 to 0.50 RMB in 2026 [6]