| 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | 不適用 | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | | 是 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 06186 | 說明 | | | | | | | | | | 法定/註冊股份數目 | | | 面值 | | 法定/註冊股本 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 2,000,000,000,000 | USD | 0.000000025 | USD | | 50,000 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | | | | USD | | | | 本月底結存 | | | 2,000,000,000,000 | USD | 0.000000025 | USD | | 50,000 | 本月底法定/註冊股本總額： USD 50,000 FF301 股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 截至月份: 2025年7月31日 狀態: 新提交 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 公司名稱: 中國飛鶴有限公司 呈交日期: 2025年8月5 ...

香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公告的內容概不 負 責，對 其 準 確 性 或 完 整 性 亦 不 發 表 任 何 聲 明，並 明 確 表 示，概 不 對 因 本 公 告 全部或任何部份內容而產生或因倚賴該等內容而引致的任何損失承擔任何責 任。 | | | | 所認購 | 預 期 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 本金金額 | 年收益率 | | | | | | 序號 | 認購日期 | 產品名稱 | （人 民 幣 元） | | % 到期日 | | 產品類型 | 投資範圍 | | 1 | 二零二五年 | 上信紅寶石T+N第101期 | 200,000,000 | 2.60% | | 二零二六年 | 非保本浮動 | 固定收益類資產 | | | 八月四日 | | | | | 六月二日 | 收益型 | | | 2 | 二零二五年 | 上信鑫月豐利FL2001 | 100,000,000 | 2.60% | | 二零二六年 | 非保本浮動 | 固定收益類資產 | | | 八月四日 | 第1 ...

Core Viewpoint - The introduction of a nationwide child-rearing subsidy in China aims to stimulate birth rates and alleviate the financial burden on families, potentially creating a significant consumption market in the mother and baby sector [4][8][12]. Group 1: Subsidy Details - Starting January 1, 2025, families with children under three years old will receive an annual subsidy of 3,600 yuan per child, regardless of the number of children [4][6]. - The total annual subsidy scale is estimated at 72 billion yuan, with 60% expected to be spent on mother and baby consumption, leading to an annual consumption increase of approximately 43.2 billion yuan in the sector [6][8]. - The subsidy is designed to be accessible, with online application systems and some regions already implementing automatic disbursement methods [9]. Group 2: Market Impact - The subsidy is expected to create a consumption increase of around 0.2 percentage points in social retail sales, particularly benefiting essential consumer goods like baby food [11][12]. - The policy is anticipated to activate related industries, potentially generating over 300 billion yuan in additional consumption across sectors such as healthcare and education [11][12]. Group 3: Industry Opportunities - The mother and baby market will see immediate benefits, especially in essential products like formula and diapers, where the subsidy can cover about 30% of expenses [19][20]. - There is a growing opportunity in service consumption, including parent-child travel and childcare services, with the childcare market projected to reach 232.3 billion yuan by 2030 [19][20]. - Companies are encouraged to focus on high-value essential products and enhance user experience through partnerships and improved service delivery [24][26]. Group 4: Long-term Considerations - The subsidy is viewed as a starting point for a broader supportive environment for families, with additional measures needed in childcare services, education, and housing to truly encourage higher birth rates [17][26]. - Companies must innovate and avoid dependency on subsidies, focusing on capturing consumer trends and addressing parenting challenges to maintain competitive advantages in the evolving market landscape [26].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to multiple companies in the consumer staples sector, including Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao, and others [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights that most baijiu wholesale prices have stabilized, with specific price changes noted for various brands. For instance, the price of Feitian Moutai (case) is 1915 yuan, down by 35 yuan from the previous month, and down 665 yuan year-on-year [3][9]. - Discounts on liquid milk and beer have decreased compared to previous months, indicating a shift in pricing strategies within the consumer goods market [5][22]. Summary by Sections Baijiu Pricing - Guizhou Moutai's prices for different products have shown a decline, with Feitian Moutai (case) at 1915 yuan, down 35 yuan month-on-month and 665 yuan year-on-year [3][9]. - Wuliangye's eighth-generation price is 930 yuan, stable compared to last month and unchanged year-on-year [4][9]. - Luzhou Laojiao's Guojiao 1573 remains at 860 yuan, unchanged from last month and down 40 yuan year-on-year [4][9]. Consumer Goods Discounts - The average discount rate for liquid milk has decreased to 79.1% from 73.8% at the end of June, while the median discount rate increased to 80.3% [5][22]. - Beer discounts have also seen a slight increase, with average and median rates at 83.6% and 87.0%, respectively, compared to 81.1% and 84.6% in late June [5][22]. - Discounts for infant formula and instant foods have remained stable, with average rates at 93.0% and 94.3%, respectively [7][22].

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market indices continued to decline in the afternoon, with the Hang Seng Tech Index dropping over 3.1% at one point, ultimately closing down 2.72%, marking five consecutive days of decline [1] - The Hang Seng Index and the State-Owned Enterprises Index saw slight increases of 1.36% and 1.18%, respectively [1] Sector Performance - Major technology stocks experienced widespread declines, with Alibaba and JD.com falling nearly 3%, and Baidu down 2% [2] - The automotive sector faced significant pressure, with July retail sales of narrow passenger vehicles reportedly down over 11% month-on-month, leading to increased selling in automotive stocks [2] - Semiconductor stocks underperformed throughout the day, with leading company SMIC dropping nearly 6% [2] - Biopharmaceutical stocks, which had been rising, saw a correction [2] - Oil prices rebounded to around $70 due to geopolitical tensions, benefiting oil stocks, with China Petroleum rising nearly 4% [2] - The "three-child" concept stocks gained momentum, while coal, electricity, and steel sectors showed relative activity as part of the "anti-involution" theme [2] Notable Stock Movements - Li Auto saw a significant drop of over 12%, while other major players like BYD, Xpeng, and NIO fell over 5% [4][9] - Semiconductor stocks led the declines, with SMIC down over 6% and other semiconductor companies also experiencing losses [5][6] - Apple-related stocks declined, with GoerTek falling over 5% and other related companies like Sunny Optical and BYD Electronics also down [7][8] - Oil stocks rose, with China Petroleum and Sinopec both increasing by over 3% [10][11] - The "three-child" concept stocks performed well, with H&H International Holdings rising over 11% [12][13] Capital Flows - Southbound funds recorded a net inflow of HKD 11.714 billion, with the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect contributing HKD 6.427 billion and the Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect contributing HKD 5.287 billion [20] Market Outlook - Analysts suggest that the Hong Kong market may continue to experience a gradual recovery driven by fundamental factors, with a focus on the Hang Seng Tech Index, biopharmaceuticals, and AI concepts [22]

Core Viewpoint - The national childcare subsidy policy will provide an annual subsidy of 3600 yuan per child until the age of three, benefiting over 20 million families each year starting from January 1, 2025 [4][5]. Subsidy Standard - Each child will receive a subsidy of 3600 yuan per year until they turn three years old. For children born before January 1, 2025, who are under three years old, the subsidy will be calculated based on the remaining months [8]. Coverage - The policy applies to all families with children under three years old, regardless of whether they have one, two, or three children, and is uniformly implemented across the country [9]. Application Process - Parents or guardians can apply for the subsidy online through the childcare subsidy information management system or offline, providing necessary documents such as birth certificates and household registration books [10]. Funding Source - The central government will establish a "childcare subsidy fund," providing financial support to eastern, central, and western regions proportionally, with any additional local funding being the responsibility of local governments [11]. Market Impact Analysis - The infant food market is expected to exceed 72 billion yuan, directly benefiting the maternal and infant consumption industry chain [12]. - The childcare industry is projected to reach a scale of 162.1 billion yuan by 2025, with an average annual growth rate of 7.5%, accelerated by the policy [13]. - Demand for children's medical and nutritional health products is anticipated to rise, with the pediatric medication market expected to grow at a rate exceeding 10% annually [14]. Beneficiary Companies - Leading maternal and infant retail companies are expected to benefit directly from increased customer spending and frequency of purchases [15]. - Companies such as Kidswant and Huaiying Room are positioned to gain from the subsidy implementation due to their extensive retail networks and service offerings [16]. - Major players in the infant formula market, like China Feihe and Yili, are likely to see increased demand driven by the subsidy [17][18].

Core Viewpoint - The newly implemented national childcare subsidy policy is expected to significantly boost the mother and baby industry, particularly benefiting companies in the maternal and infant product sectors as well as the dairy industry [1][4]. Group 1: National Childcare Subsidy Policy - The national childcare subsidy will provide eligible families with a cash subsidy of up to 10,800 yuan over three years for children under three years old, regardless of whether they have one, two, or three children [1]. - Following the announcement, stocks in the mother and baby sector, including companies like Beiyinmei and Sunshine Dairy, experienced significant price increases, indicating strong market optimism [1]. Group 2: Market Response and Industry Impact - The subsidy is expected to have a multi-round stimulating effect, particularly in lower-tier markets where birth rates are higher, thus increasing purchasing power for maternal and infant products [1]. - The mother and baby market, which has been in a deep adjustment period after four consecutive years of decline, is showing signs of recovery, with a projected increase in newborns in 2024 [2]. Group 3: Company Performance and Projections - Companies in the maternal and infant sector are reporting positive financial results, with Kid King expecting a net profit increase of 50% to 100% year-on-year for the first half of the year [3]. - Friesland's professional nutrition business reported a revenue of 7.2 billion euros (approximately 60.4 billion yuan) for the first half of 2025, marking an 18.1% year-on-year growth driven by the Chinese market [3]. Group 4: Industry Outlook - Despite the positive short-term effects of the subsidy, industry experts remain cautious about long-term recovery, citing a potential decline in marriage registration rates and newborn numbers in 2024 [4]. - The national childcare subsidy is projected to increase retail sales of consumer goods by approximately 0.2 percentage points, particularly benefiting essential consumer goods in the mother and baby category [4].

Summary of Conference Call on National Childcare Subsidy Policy Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the impact of the national childcare subsidy policy on various industries, particularly focusing on the maternal and infant products market, including companies like Feihe, Jianhe International, Aoyou Dairy, and Mengniu Dairy [1][3][5]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Childcare Subsidy Policy Implementation**: Starting January 1, 2025, the government will provide a monthly subsidy of 300 yuan for children under three years old, applicable to those born after January 1, 2022 [2][6]. 2. **Impact on Maternal and Infant Products Market**: The subsidy is expected to enhance family consumption capacity, benefiting retail companies like Aiyingshi and Haiziwang significantly [1][5]. 3. **Feihe's Financial Performance**: Feihe anticipates a revenue of 20.7 billion yuan in 2024, a 6.2% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 3.65 billion yuan, up 11% [1][3]. 4. **Jianhe International's Strategy**: The company has diversified its product offerings, with infant nutrition accounting for about half of its revenue. It has expanded its market presence, particularly in lower-tier cities, and aims to increase customer acquisition through promotional events [7][10]. 5. **Aoyou Dairy's Market Position**: Aoyou Dairy leads in the goat milk powder segment and has secured 70% of its raw milk costs, ensuring stable profit margins amid the new policy [8][4]. 6. **Mengniu Dairy's Growth Potential**: Although Mengniu's infant formula business is relatively small, its organic milk powder products are expected to benefit from the subsidy, potentially increasing sales and profitability [9][4]. 7. **Retail Sector Dynamics**: The retail sector, especially maternal and infant products, is poised for growth due to the subsidy, with companies like Aiyingshi and Haiziwang expanding their store networks and product offerings [10][5]. 8. **Consumer Electronics Impact**: Companies like Bear Electric are expected to benefit from the subsidy, with significant growth in maternal and infant appliances, projecting over 40% growth in related product sales [18][3]. 9. **Clothing Market Influence**: The subsidy is likely to boost clothing consumption, particularly in the children's apparel sector, with an estimated increase in spending on children's clothing due to the financial support [19][20]. 10. **Healthcare and Medical Products**: The conference also highlights the potential benefits for healthcare products related to infants, including vaccines and medical services, as the demand for these products is expected to rise with the increase in newborns [16][17]. Other Important Insights - The national subsidy policy represents a significant shift from previous local pilot programs, providing a more inclusive and direct financial support mechanism for families [6][12]. - The policy is expected to stimulate demand across various sectors, including retail, healthcare, and consumer electronics, creating a ripple effect in the economy [12][18]. - Companies are adapting their strategies to leverage the new policy, focusing on expanding product lines and enhancing customer engagement through innovative marketing approaches [7][10]. This summary encapsulates the key discussions and insights from the conference call regarding the national childcare subsidy policy and its implications across various industries.

Group 1 - The implementation of the national childcare subsidy policy is expected to stimulate the mother and baby sector, leading to a collective surge in stock prices for related companies [1][2] - Families with eligible children under three years old can receive a cash subsidy of up to 10,800 yuan over three years, regardless of the number of children [2] - The policy is anticipated to have a significant impact on lower-tier markets, where there is a higher willingness to give birth, thus increasing purchasing power for mother and baby products [2][6] Group 2 - The mother and baby industry, along with the dairy sector, is closely linked to the annual number of newborns, which has been in decline for four consecutive years [3] - The birth rate is projected to increase in 2024, with an estimated 9.54 million newborns, which is 520,000 more than the previous year, contributing to a recovery in the mother and baby market [4] - Recent financial reports from companies in the sector indicate positive growth, with Kid King expecting a net profit increase of 50% to 100% in the first half of the year [6] Group 3 - The national childcare subsidy policy is estimated to boost retail sales of consumer goods by approximately 0.2 percentage points, particularly benefiting essential consumer categories like mother and baby food [7] - Despite the positive outlook, industry experts remain cautious about the long-term recovery of the mother and baby sector, citing the need for time for policies to reflect in market data [6]

Group 1 - The implementation of the "Childcare Subsidy System" is set to begin on January 1, 2025, providing annual subsidies of 3600 yuan per child for families with children under three years old, benefiting over 20 million families annually [1] - Local governments are also introducing their own subsidy programs, with examples including Hubei Ezhou offering 500 yuan per year for second children and 800 yuan for third children, and Inner Mongolia providing a one-time subsidy of 10,000 yuan for first children [1] - Companies like Feihe and Yili are also entering the market with their own subsidy programs, with Yili announcing a 1.6 billion yuan subsidy plan [2] Group 2 - The infant formula market is experiencing polarization, driven by high-end products, with ultra-high-end products capturing 33.2% of the market share [3] - Companies such as Feihe, FrieslandCampina, Danone, and Nestlé are maintaining growth in high-end products, while Mengniu's milk powder business is declining [3][4] - Feihe expects a revenue decline of 8% to 10% in the first half of the year due to reduced purchasing demand from the introduction of subsidies and inventory clearance [4] - The increasing subsidies are likely to further drive the premiumization of the maternal and infant market [5]