飞鹤直播间联动母婴集合店 线上流量涌入线下 一个是深耕婴幼儿奶粉60余年的"国货之光"，一个是在全国拥有1600多家门店的连锁母婴百货，当"宝贝圈"两大巨头牵手，会产生什么样奇妙的化学反 应？ 打通线上线下两个卖场 Fast Reading 作者丨 胡新周 ■ 作为首个参与抖音生活服务"品牌联合经营"的母婴品牌，飞鹤奶粉在短短两个月时间里交出了一份漂亮的成绩单：直播单场销售额突破350万 元，冲刺到抖音全国品牌专卖榜第一名。 ■ 今年4月29日起，抖音生活服务针对优质、有一定线下销售体量，但没有独立门店的零售品牌推出品牌联合经营模式，并提供免（返）佣金、本 地推广告1:1对投等多项扶持。 ■ 品牌在直播间售卖爆款产品和代金券，引导用户去附近的商超和连锁母婴集合店进行核销，线上流量涌入线下门店，品牌完成了新用户的转化 和沉淀，从而实现品牌、渠道和用户的三方共赢。 6月11日，爱婴岛副总裁叶发朝和中国飞鹤营销副总经理陈晓东同时亮相飞鹤品牌母婴甄选号的抖音直播间，用团购代金券吸引了大批用户，以小米按 摩器、华为手机等实用礼品带动消费者的互动热情。 "高管带货+国风美学+超值福利"的组合，让这场直播的实时在线人数峰值 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company anticipates a decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, primarily due to inventory reduction and the impact of a fertility subsidy program [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - The company expects to achieve revenue of 9.1-9.3 billion for H1 2025, representing a year-on-year decline of 7.9%-9.9% [1]. - The projected net profit for H1 2025 is estimated to be between 1.0-1.2 billion, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 36%-47% [1]. - The company plans to allocate no less than 1.0 billion for share buybacks and expects to distribute dividends of at least 2.0 billion in 2025, down from 2.72 billion in the previous year [1][2]. Group 2: Market Outlook - The company forecasts low single-digit growth for full-year revenue, with H2 2025 revenue expected to increase by 10%-15% [2]. - The anticipated completion of inventory adjustments in Q3 2025 is expected to positively impact revenue [2]. - The company plans to launch higher-end products in H2 2025, which may drive revenue improvement [2]. Group 3: Investment Strategy - The company has announced a share buyback plan and a commitment to dividend distribution, enhancing shareholder returns [2][3]. - The long-term outlook remains positive due to expected recovery in newborn population growth and the implementation of fertility subsidies, suggesting a potential industry improvement cycle of 2-3 years [2]. - The company has adjusted its earnings forecasts for 2025-2027, with a target price set at 5.1 HKD and a recommendation downgrade to "recommended" [3].

机构：中金公司 研究员：陈文博/王文丹/方云朋 预告1H25 盈利同比下降36-47% 启动不少于10 亿元股份回购，全年派息额不低于20 亿元。公司拟启动不低于10 亿元的股份回购用于潜 在员工激励计划，公告25 年派息不低于20亿人民币，相当于25 年我们利润预期的60%以上，彰显公司 对于提升股东回报的决心。考虑公司覆盖全生命周期营养产品的长期布局，未来公司有望在功能营养事 业及儿青事业获取更多增量。同时我们认为去库存利好公司渠道稳健稳定发展，短期虽有影响，但长期 利好公司竞争力进一步夯实。 盈利预测与估值 由于公司去库存调整及大包粉减值，我们下调25/26 年盈利预测26%/16%至28.7/36.6 亿元，当前交易在 13/10 倍25/26 年P/E；下调目标价27%至6 港币，对应18/14 倍25/26 年P/E和31%上行空间，维持跑赢行 业评级。 飞鹤发布盈利预警公告：预计1H25 收入91-93 亿元，同比下降7.9-9.9%，预计1H25 净利润10-12 亿元， 同比下滑36-47%，低于市场预期，主因去库存调整及大包粉减值。 关注要点 去库存及奶粉补贴多重影响致收入低于市场预期，利 ...

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - On July 9, 37 Hong Kong-listed companies conducted share buybacks, totaling 49.01 million shares and an amount of 1.129 billion HKD [1][2]. Group 1: Buyback Details - Tencent Holdings repurchased 1.005 million shares for 500 million HKD, with a highest price of 504.000 HKD and a lowest price of 495.200 HKD, accumulating a total buyback amount of 39.543 billion HKD for the year [1][2]. - WuXi Biologics repurchased 11.5 million shares for 298 million HKD, with a highest price of 26.150 HKD and a lowest price of 25.650 HKD, accumulating a total buyback amount of 1.708 billion HKD for the year [1][2]. - AIA Group repurchased 4 million shares for 274 million HKD, with a highest price of 68.950 HKD and a lowest price of 68.050 HKD, accumulating a total buyback amount of 16.935 billion HKD for the year [1][2]. Group 2: Buyback Rankings - The highest buyback amount on July 9 was from Tencent Holdings at 500 million HKD, followed by WuXi Biologics at 298 million HKD [1][2]. - The largest number of shares repurchased on July 9 was by WuXi Biologics at 11.5 million shares, followed by Ying Group and China Aluminum Can with 8 million shares and 5 million shares, respectively [1][2]. Group 3: Additional Buyback Information - China Feihe conducted its first buyback of the year, while Tencent Holdings has conducted multiple buybacks totaling 39.543 billion HKD for the year [2]. - A detailed table of buybacks on July 9 includes various companies, their stock codes, number of shares repurchased, buyback amounts, highest and lowest prices, and cumulative buyback amounts for the year [2][3].

公司研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 中国飞鹤（06186.HK）2025 年中报预告点评 推荐（下调） 业绩低于预期，加大分红回购力度 事项： ❖ 公司发布 2025 年中报预告。25H1 预计实现收入 91-93 亿，同比下滑 7.9%- 9.9%，预计实现净利润 10-12 亿，同比下滑 36%-47%。公司预计 25Q3 渠道 库存调整到位，全年收入指引低个位数增长。此外，公司年内拟投入不少于 10 亿资金回购股份，用于后续出售或员工股权激励；且预期 25 年分派股息不少 于 20 亿元，去年同期 27.2 亿元。 评论： [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 20,749 | 20,766 | 22,054 | 23,119 | | 同比增速(%) | 5.6% | 0.1% | 6.2% | 4.8% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 3,570 | 3,025 | 3,602 | 3,992 | | 同比增速(%) | ...

Group 1 - The infant formula market is experiencing a recovery in the first half of 2025, with several companies reporting positive earnings forecasts, indicating sustained growth [1][2] - Child King (301078.SZ) expects a net profit of 120 million to 160 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 50% to 100%, driven by steady growth in self-operated business and the expansion of its franchise model in lower-tier markets [2] - Health and Happiness Group (01112.HK) reported single-digit revenue growth, with a strong performance in the ultra-premium infant formula segment, increasing its market share from 13% to 15.8% [2] Group 2 - According to Nielsen IQ data, the total sales of infant formula maintained growth for three out of five months leading up to May 25, 2025, with strong sales in the first and second stages of formula [3] - After four years of decline, the domestic birth rate increased to 9.54 million in 2024, contributing to the recovery of the infant formula market, although there are concerns about a potential slight decline in birth rates in 2025 [6] Group 3 - A subsidy war initiated in April 2025 has intensified competition in the infant formula market, with several companies, including China Feihe (06186.HK) and Yili (600887.SH), launching substantial subsidy programs [7][8] - The subsidy strategy primarily involves offering free formula, leading to consumer behavior where multiple brands' products are exchanged among consumers, complicating sales for companies [7][8] - China Feihe issued a profit warning, expecting revenue between 9.1 billion and 9.3 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, down from 10.1 billion yuan in the same period of 2024, attributing the decline to the subsidy program [8]

Group 1 - HSBC Global Research has lowered the target price for China Feihe (06186.HK) to HKD 4.9 and maintained a "Hold" rating [1] - The company issued a profit warning for its interim results, expecting a year-on-year net profit decline of 36% to 46% [1] - Revenue for 2025 is now expected to remain flat year-on-year, a revision from a previous forecast of a 9% increase, with net profit estimates for 2025 down by 31% [1] Group 2 - The total dividend payout forecast has been reduced by 34% to RMB 2 billion [1]

Core Viewpoint - China Feihe (06186.HK) experienced a significant stock decline of 17.37% following a profit warning, with projected revenues and net profits for the upcoming six months showing substantial decreases compared to the previous year [2][4]. Financial Performance - The company expects revenues between 9.1 billion to 9.3 billion yuan, a decrease of approximately 10.1 billion yuan compared to the same period in 2024 [2]. - Projected net profits are estimated to be between 1 billion to 1.2 billion yuan, down by about 1.9 billion yuan from 2024 [2]. Reasons for Decline - The revenue and profit decline is attributed to four main factors: 1. Provision of fertility subsidies to consumers leading to reduced income 2. Lowering of channel inventory for infant formula 3. Decrease in government subsidies received 4. Impairment provisions for whole milk powder products [2]. Market Outlook - The infant formula market in China is expected to see a marginal improvement in demand due to a projected rebound in birth rates in 2024, which will positively impact the industry in 2025 [3]. - China Feihe is positioned as a market leader in the infant formula sector, with revenue forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 estimated at 22.17 billion, 23.63 billion, and 25.17 billion yuan respectively [3]. Share Buyback Plan - In response to the performance decline, China Feihe announced a share buyback plan to repurchase up to 10% of its issued shares, totaling approximately 907 million shares, with a minimum of 1 billion yuan allocated from existing cash reserves and free cash flow [5][6]. - The board expressed confidence in the company's long-term growth prospects through this buyback initiative [6]. Dividend Expectations - The board anticipates a total dividend of no less than 2 billion yuan for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2025, aimed at providing ongoing returns to shareholders [6].

本文由 AI 算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 【中国飞鹤上半年业绩预降，股价大跌并推回购派息计划】受上半年业绩预计下滑影响，港股中国飞鹤 股价大跌。公告显示，公司预计2025年1 - 6月收益约91 - 93亿元，较2024年同期的101亿元下降。 7月7 日，中国飞鹤开盘跌14.91%，报4.85港元，盘中一度跌至4.65港元，最大跌幅超18%。 消息面上，公司 预计上半年综合净利润约10 - 12亿元，较2024年同期的19亿元减少。业绩下降主因履行社会责任提供生 育补贴、降低渠道库存、政府补助减少及产品减值计提。 公司2024年年报显示，全年营收207.49亿元， 归母净利润35.70亿元。其是中国最早奶粉企业之一，2024年业绩改善。 行业方面，受出生人口影响， 2022 - 2023年婴配粉行业规模下滑，2024年降幅收窄，预计2025年同比 - 1.2%。公司聚焦超高端产品， 超高端产品占比提升。 面对挑战，中国飞鹤拟动用不少于10亿元回购股份，资金源于现金储备及自由 现金流，股份用于出售或股权激励。 同时，公司2025年将派发不少于20亿元股息。近年来加大投资者 回报，2024年 ...

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a decline in the three major indices, with the Hang Seng Index down by 0.45%, the Hang Seng Tech Index down by 0.15%, and the National Enterprises Index down by 0.44% [1] Sector Performance - Cryptocurrency stocks saw a positive trend, with Guotai Junan International (01788.HK) rising over 8% [1] - Education stocks performed well, with Huaxia Holdings (01981.HK) and China Oriental Education (00667.HK) each increasing by over 3% [1] - Real estate stocks rebounded, with companies like Sunac China (01918.HK), China Jinmao (00817.HK), and China Resources Land (01109.HK) showing gains [1] - Other sectors such as nuclear power, elderly care, food, electricity, gaming, and new consumption also saw early gains [1] Notable Declines - Dairy product stocks faced significant losses, particularly China Feihe (06186.HK), which dropped over 17%, reaching a new low in 188 trading days [1] - Sectors such as biomedicine, gold, non-ferrous metals, and Apple-related stocks experienced declines [1]