Summary of Qingdao Port Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Qingdao Port - **Industry**: Port and Logistics Key Financial Metrics - **2024 Cargo Throughput**: 5.2 billion tons, up 3.5% YoY [2] - **Container Throughput**: 8.22 million TEU, up 7.2% YoY [2] - **Revenue**: 18.94 billion yuan, up 4.2% YoY [2] - **Net Profit**: 5.23 billion yuan, up 6.3% YoY [2] - **Earnings Per Share**: 0.8 yuan, up 6.6% YoY [2] - **Gross Profit Margin**: 35.4% [3] - **Return on Equity**: 12.65% [3] - **Debt to Asset Ratio**: 25.4% [3] Container Business Growth Factors - **Economic Support**: The local economy in Shandong contributes approximately 80% of container volume [2][7] - **Product Characteristics**: Container goods are essential products, less sensitive to macroeconomic fluctuations [7] - **Route Density**: Qingdao Port has the highest route density among northern ports, with nearly 230 routes [2][7] - **New Routes**: The port has added over 15 new routes annually since the integration of Shandong ports [7][8] Foreign Trade Structure - **Diversification**: The foreign trade structure has become more diverse and balanced, with essential goods being less sensitive to tariff fluctuations [9] - **Impact of Tariffs**: Less than 5% of business is affected by U.S. tariffs, allowing for alternative trade routes [9] Liquid Bulk Cargo Challenges - **Decline in Liquid Bulk**: Liquid bulk cargo is expected to decline in 2024 and 2025 due to reduced electricity quotas and increased penetration of new energy vehicles [10] - **Mitigation Strategies**: The company is expanding other businesses and exploring new models like futures delivery warehouses and ship supply oil to offset losses [10] Dry Bulk Cargo Business - **Main Products**: The dry bulk business primarily consists of iron ore, coal, and bauxite, accounting for 80% of the volume [12] - **Efficiency**: Qingdao Port has the highest loading and unloading efficiency globally for iron ore [12][13] Competitive Advantages - **Operational Efficiency**: The company maintains a diverse cargo model, reducing reliance on any single commodity, enhancing resilience against economic fluctuations [14] - **Port Integration**: The integration of Shandong ports has improved operational management and increased route density [15][20] - **Geographical Advantage**: Qingdao Port's location provides proximity to major shipping routes, with deep-water capabilities for large vessels [18] Future Outlook and Dividend Policy - **Steady Growth**: The company plans to maintain a dividend payout ratio of no less than 40% of distributable profits, with a 2024 ratio of 45% [6][22] - **Capital Expenditure**: Future capital expenditures will focus on infrastructure and equity investments, with an annual investment of approximately 4 billion yuan for five years [22] Conclusion - **Strategic Focus**: Qingdao Port will continue to focus on its core business in port operations and logistics while exploring overseas opportunities through management services [23]

6月3日，青岛港今日收盘9.04元，上涨1.35%，滚动市盈率PE（当前股价与前四季度每股收益总和的比 值）达到11.03倍，总市值586.80亿元。 从行业市盈率排名来看，公司所处的航运港口行业市盈率平均13.67倍，行业中值14.32倍，青岛港排名 第9位。 截至2025年一季报，共有31家机构持仓青岛港，其中基金22家、其他6家、保险1家、券商1家、社保1 家，合计持股数492844.41万股，持股市值483.97亿元。 青岛港国际股份有限公司的主营业务是集装箱、金属矿石、煤炭、原油等各类货物的装卸及配套服务、 物流及港口增值服务、港口配套服务等。公司的主要产品是装卸及相关业务、物流及港口增值服务业 务、港口配套服务业务。公司先后荣获国家质量管理奖、国家环境友好企业、全国首批"绿色港口"、中 国证券"金紫荆奖"、"最佳上市公司奖"、亚洲品牌500强、中国上市公司品牌500强等荣誉称号。中国交 通运输部水运科学研究院发布调研报告，将青岛港推树为国内世界一流港口五大示范标杆之一。近年 来，"人民工匠""时代楷模""全国道德模范""全国先进基层党组织""全国工人先锋号""全国爱国主义教育 示范基地"等国家荣誉 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the transportation industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The shipping industry is experiencing a surge in demand due to a recent temporary reduction in tariffs between China and the US, leading to a significant increase in shipping volumes on the US route. The average booking volume surged by 277% compared to the previous week [5] - The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) rose by 10.0% week-on-week, indicating a strong recovery in shipping rates, particularly for routes to the US [6] - The logistics sector is showing resilience, with express delivery volumes in April increasing by 19.1% year-on-year, reflecting robust demand across various sectors [9] - The airline industry is expected to benefit from macroeconomic recovery, with a long-term supply-demand imbalance favoring growth in the sector [12] Summary by Sections Shipping Vessels - The recent tariff reductions have led to a surge in demand for shipping services, particularly on the US route, with a projected increase in freight rates over the next 2-3 months due to supply constraints [5] - The average weekly capacity for the US route is expected to be 500,000 TEU, down 6% from last year [5] - The oil tanker market is facing supply tightness due to limited new orders and an aging fleet, which is expected to sustain high demand in the coming years [12] Express Logistics - In April, the express delivery industry in China saw a business volume of 16.32 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 19.1%, with revenue reaching 121.28 billion yuan, up 10.8% [9] - The concentration index for express delivery brands (CR8) was 86.7, indicating a stable competitive landscape [9] Aviation and Airports - The airline industry is poised for growth due to low supply growth and recovering demand, with key companies to watch including China Southern Airlines and Air China [12] - The passenger transport volume in March was approximately 59 million, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.5% [50] Overall Market Performance - From May 12 to May 16, the transportation index rose by 2.12%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index [17] - The shipping sector saw the highest increase at 7.42%, indicating strong market performance [17]

Core Viewpoint - The shipping sector is experiencing a significant rebound due to the recent reduction in tariffs between China and the U.S., leading to increased stock prices and a surge in shipping demand [1][6]. Group 1: Market Performance - Several listed companies in the shipping sector have seen their stock prices rise sharply, with China National Aviation's stock increasing over 19% on May 15, and its price doubling over four trading days [1]. - The average booking volume for container shipments from China to the U.S. has surged by 277% as of May 14, indicating strong market demand [1]. - In Q1 2025, the shipping sector's top 10 companies reported an average revenue of 8.89 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.5%, and an average net profit of 1.56 billion yuan, up 35.3% [2][3]. Group 2: Company Performance - Leading companies like China COSCO Shipping Holdings reported a net profit of 11.695 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a 73.12% increase year-on-year, while Jinjiang Shipping's net profit surged by 187.07% to 357 million yuan [2][3]. - China Merchants Port has expanded its global port layout, completing a 51% equity transfer for an Indonesian project and signing an agreement for a Brazilian oil terminal project [5]. Group 3: Operational Trends - The shipping sector is witnessing a diversification in operations, with companies like China COSCO Shipping Ports reporting a 367% increase in overseas terminal profits, driven by contributions from the Mediterranean and Middle East regions [4][5]. - The trend towards green and low-carbon transformation is notable, with several companies investing in methanol-powered vessels and reducing carbon emissions [5]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The recent tariff reductions are expected to lead to a surge in shipping demand, particularly in the Asia-Europe and trans-Pacific routes, as companies rush to mitigate costs and meet delivery deadlines [6][10]. - Analysts predict that the shipping sector is at a turning point, with potential for significant growth as traditional shipping seasons approach and demand rebounds [10].

港股航运股持续走强 中远海发涨超8% 智通财经 5月15日电，截至发稿，中远海发(02866.HK)涨8.26%、东方海外国际(00316..HK)涨4.12%、青 岛港(06198.HK)涨1.93%。消息方面，随着中美实施一系列关税调整措施，美国进口商本周大幅增加从 中国的进口订单。多家航运公司和行业跟踪的数据显示，中国对美的货运量已经显著回升。美东时间周 三，集装箱跟踪数据软件商Vizion表示，在中美达成贸易"休战"后，从中国到美国的集装箱运输预订量 飙升了近300%。 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Add" [3] Core Views - The company reported a strong performance in Q1 2025, with revenue of 4.81 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.5%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.4 billion yuan, up 6.5% year-on-year [1][7] - The growth in container throughput exceeded expectations, with a total cargo throughput of 177.06 million tons in Q1 2025, representing a 2.9% year-on-year increase, and container throughput of 8.22 million TEUs, up 7.2% year-on-year [7] - The company benefits from a strong regional advantage and a high proportion of profitable segments, particularly in container and liquid bulk cargo [7] Financial Data and Valuation - Total revenue projections for the company are as follows: 18.173 billion yuan in 2023, 18.941 billion yuan in 2024, and 19.6 billion yuan in 2025E, with a growth rate of -6%, 4%, and 3% respectively [2][14] - The projected net profit attributable to shareholders is 4.923 billion yuan in 2023, 5.235 billion yuan in 2024, and 5.513 billion yuan in 2025E, with growth rates of 9%, 6%, and 5% respectively [2][14] - The company’s PE ratio is projected to decrease from 11.9 in 2023 to 10.6 in 2025E, indicating a potential for valuation re-rating [2][14] Performance Metrics - The company achieved a gross profit margin of 38.6% in Q1 2025, an increase of 0.4 percentage points year-on-year [7] - The return on equity (ROE) is reported at 12.1%, which is among the highest in the industry [3][7] - The company maintains a low debt ratio of 26.0%, indicating strong financial health [3] Future Outlook - The company is expected to continue its growth trajectory, with net profits projected to reach 5.513 billion yuan in 2025, 5.745 billion yuan in 2026, and 5.975 billion yuan in 2027 [7] - The dividend payout ratio is expected to be 40%, with corresponding dividend yields of 3.8% for A-shares and 6.1% for H-shares in 2025 [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [7] Core Views - In the first quarter of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 4.81 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.5%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.4 billion yuan, up 6.5% year-on-year [5][11] - The container throughput benefited from increased exports to the U.S., maintaining high growth, while bulk cargo, especially oil throughput, was under pressure due to low operating rates of local refineries [11] - The company's gross profit growth was mainly driven by high growth in container throughput, while investment income declined, possibly due to a decrease in liquid bulk cargo business volume [11] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company reported total cargo throughput of 177 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.9%, with container throughput of 8.22 million TEU, up 7.2% year-on-year [11] - The revenue for Q1 2025 was 4.81 billion yuan, with a cost of 2.95 billion yuan, resulting in a gross margin of 38.6%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points year-on-year [11] - The net profit margin was 32.0%, down 1.4 percentage points year-on-year [11] Business Outlook - The local refinery operating rates showed signs of stabilization, and the production of iron and steel is on the rise, which may lead to a recovery in oil and dry bulk cargo throughput [11] - The company expects net profits attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 to be 5.48 billion, 5.71 billion, and 6.14 billion yuan, corresponding to P/E ratios of 10.2, 9.8, and 9.1 times, respectively [11]

Group 1 - Qingdao Port's stock closed at 8.86 yuan, up 2.19%, with a rolling PE ratio of 10.81, marking a new low in 12 days and a total market value of 57.511 billion yuan [1] - The average PE ratio for the shipping and port industry is 13.31, with a median of 14.58, placing Qingdao Port in 8th position within the industry [1] - As of the first quarter of 2025, 31 institutions hold shares in Qingdao Port, including 22 funds, with a total holding of 492,844.41 million shares valued at 48.397 billion yuan [1] Group 2 - Qingdao Port International Co., Ltd. specializes in the loading and unloading of various goods, including containers, metal ores, coal, and crude oil, along with logistics and port value-added services [2] - The company achieved a revenue of 4.807 billion yuan in the first quarter of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 8.51%, and a net profit of 1.402 billion yuan, up 6.51%, with a gross profit margin of 38.57% [2] - Qingdao Port has received numerous national honors, including being recognized as one of the five exemplary benchmarks of world-class ports by the Ministry of Transport [2]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is optimistic [1] Core Views - The report highlights a continuous recovery in domestic demand, with a focus on increased dividends [1] - The shipping sector shows strong performance in container shipping, while oil and dry bulk shipping face pressure [3][4] - The highway sector experienced a rebound in traffic in Q1 2025, while port container business remains robust [4] - The railway passenger transport is stable, but freight transport is under pressure [4] - The airline industry sees steady growth in passenger traffic, although ticket prices are under slight pressure [6] - The express delivery sector exceeded expectations in 2024, maintaining double-digit growth into Q1 2025, despite intense price competition [7] - Cross-border logistics face challenges due to coal market pressures and tariff policies affecting air freight demand [8] Summary by Sections Shipping - Container shipping shows impressive performance, with significant profit growth and stable dividends [15] - Oil shipping and dry bulk shipping face challenges, with fluctuating rates and cautious dividend policies [18][21] - The report notes a strong increase in container shipping rates due to geopolitical tensions and trade dynamics [14][15] Highways - In 2024, highway traffic saw a slight decline, but Q1 2025 traffic improved, leading to increased profits for highway companies [35][38] - The report indicates that highway companies are maintaining high dividend payouts despite previous revenue declines [41][43] Ports - Port container throughput growth outpaced other sectors, benefiting from a favorable international trade environment [44][46] - The report emphasizes the strong performance of container port companies, with significant profit increases [47][48] Railways - Railway passenger volumes remained stable, while freight volumes faced challenges, impacting overall profitability [49] Airlines - The airline sector is experiencing steady passenger growth, but ticket prices are slightly under pressure, affecting profitability [6] Express Delivery - The express delivery industry saw a significant increase in volume in 2024, continuing strong growth into Q1 2025, although competition remains fierce [7] Cross-Border Logistics - Cross-border logistics companies are facing challenges due to market pressures and tariff impacts on air freight demand [8]

Group 1 - Qingdao Port's closing price on April 30 was 8.68 yuan, up 1.05%, with a rolling PE ratio of 10.59 times and a total market value of 56.343 billion yuan [1] - The average PE ratio for the shipping and port industry is 13.00 times, with a median of 14.04 times, placing Qingdao Port at the 10th position in the industry ranking [1] - As of the first quarter of 2025, 31 institutions held shares in Qingdao Port, including 22 funds, 6 others, 1 insurance company, 1 brokerage, and 1 social security fund, with a total holding of 492,844.41 million shares valued at 48.397 billion yuan [1] Group 2 - Qingdao Port International Co., Ltd. specializes in the loading and unloading of various goods such as containers, metal ores, coal, and crude oil, along with logistics and port value-added services [2] - The company has received numerous honors, including the National Quality Management Award and recognition as a "Green Port," and has been identified as one of the five exemplary world-class ports by the Ministry of Transport [2] - In the first quarter of 2025, the company reported revenue of 4.807 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.51%, and a net profit of 1.402 billion yuan, up 6.51%, with a gross profit margin of 38.57% [2]