Group 1 - Miniso has reportedly hired JPMorgan and UBS to assist its subsidiary TOP TOY in an IPO in Hong Kong [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Miniso, with a 12-month price target of $23.10 for ADR and HK$45.00 for H-share, indicating an upside potential of 34.5% and 33.7% respectively [14][17]. Core Insights - Miniso is expected to experience sequential sales growth acceleration, with management confident in margin improvement and a peak in DTC-related expenses in the first half of the year [1][2]. - Same-store sales growth (SSSG) turned positive in May for Miniso China, and positive trends were also observed in the US and other overseas markets [1][7]. - The company plans to enhance its product offerings, focusing on both intellectual property (IP) products and value-for-money lifestyle products, with localized designs for overseas markets [1][10]. - Management aims to expand to over 1,000 stores in the US market, targeting a 20% operating profit margin in the mid to long term, despite potential short-term volatility [1][11]. Summary by Sections Sales Growth and Guidance - For Q2 2025, Miniso China is expected to achieve low teens percentage sales growth, while Miniso Overseas and Top Toy are projected to grow by 25%-30% and 70%-80% year-over-year respectively [8]. - If the SSSG recovery trend continues, operating profits are likely to turn positive in Q3, with full-year adjusted operating profits targeted at RMB 3.6 billion to RMB 3.8 billion [8]. Product Strategy - The company is enhancing its IP product quality and focusing on localized designs for international markets, while also improving the merchandising of value-for-money products [10][12]. - A dedicated zone for top-selling products has been added to increase conversion rates, and inventory management will be prioritized to avoid stockouts of best-sellers [11]. Market Performance - Year-to-date, Miniso China's SSSG has shown improvement, with positive trends in the US market and other overseas markets noted in April and May [7][11]. - The US market has seen the opening of approximately 20 new stores, primarily in plaza locations, achieving double-digit operating profit margins despite being in a low season [11]. Long-term Outlook - Miniso is positioned to become a leading global IP retailer, with catalysts for share price growth including accelerated store expansion, improved SSSG, and higher contributions from IP products [14]. - The market currently underappreciates Miniso's potential adjusted net income compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of nearly 20% from 2024 to 2026, excluding contributions from Yonghui [14].

Core Viewpoint - Miniso's stock price plummeted over 18% on May 26, primarily due to concerns raised by its Q1 2025 financial report, which showed revenue growth but a significant decline in net profit [2] Financial Performance - For Q1 2025, Miniso reported revenue of 4.43 billion RMB, an 18.9% year-on-year increase, while net profit fell by 28.92% to 417 million RMB [2][3] - The increase in revenue was overshadowed by a sharp rise in sales and distribution expenses, which reached 1.02 billion RMB, a 46.7% increase year-on-year [3][4] - General and administrative expenses also rose by 26.6% to 242 million RMB, further squeezing profit margins [3][4] Cost Structure - The rise in sales and distribution expenses was attributed to direct investments in new stores and interest expenses from loans related to the acquisition of Yonghui Superstores [4] - High operational costs associated with overseas expansion, including rent, depreciation, and wages, increased by 71.4%, leading to low profit contributions from new stores [5] Market Expansion and Competition - As of March 31, 2025, Miniso had expanded its overseas store count to 3,213, a net increase of 617 stores year-on-year [5][6] - The company faces challenges in the domestic market due to increased competition and changing consumer preferences, which have diminished the effectiveness of its low-price strategy [6] - Same-store sales have shown a mid-single-digit decline, indicating reduced operational efficiency and growth potential in the domestic market [6] Debt and Financial Health - Miniso's total liabilities nearly doubled from 7.77 billion RMB to 15.51 billion RMB, with the debt-to-asset ratio rising from 42.85% to 59.22% [7][8] - Despite revenue growth, the significant drop in net profit, risks from overseas expansion, and intense market competition raise concerns about the company's future profitability and ability to manage costs effectively [8]

Core Viewpoint - MINISO's stock price has significantly dropped in both US and Hong Kong markets, leading to a market value loss exceeding $2 billion since the beginning of the year, following disappointing quarterly earnings reports [1][2]. Financial Performance - For Q1 2025, MINISO reported total revenue of 4.427 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.9%, but net profit fell by 28.9% to 417 million yuan [2][4]. - Adjusted net profit for the same period was approximately 587 million yuan, down from 617 million yuan in Q1 2024, marking a new low in nearly seven quarters [2][4]. - The company's gross profit increased by 21.1% year-on-year, with a gross margin improvement of 0.8 percentage points to 44.2% [2]. Cost and Expense Management - Sales and distribution expenses surged to 1.021 billion yuan, a 46.7% increase compared to Q1 2024, with sales expenses accounting for 52.2% of gross profit [4][6]. - The company’s costs related to rent, depreciation, and labor rose by 71.4% during the reporting period, indicating challenges in cost control [4][6]. Store Expansion and Strategy - MINISO's overseas store count nearly doubled from 281 to 548, while the number of TOP TOY stores increased from 17 to 40, reflecting aggressive expansion strategies [4][5]. - The average size of new stores opened in Q1 2025 was approximately 300 square meters, with a focus on upgrading store formats [5][6]. Market Position and Competition - The domestic store count showed signs of stagnation, with a net increase of only 241 stores in mainland China, marking the first sequential decline since Q2 2022 [7][11]. - The main brand's revenue in mainland China was approximately 2.494 billion yuan, with a modest year-on-year growth of 9.1%, indicating a slowdown compared to previous high double-digit growth rates [11]. Future Outlook - The company is considering a potential spin-off of TOP TOY for a Hong Kong listing, aiming to raise $300 million, but faces challenges related to high licensing costs and the need for a distinct brand identity [12][14].

Core Viewpoint - MINISO's recent financial report reveals a trend of revenue growth but profit decline, raising concerns among investors about its future performance and market position [1][5][6]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, MINISO achieved revenue of 4.427 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.9%, with a gross profit of 1.958 billion yuan, up 21.1% [6][8]. - The net profit for the same period was 417 million yuan, down 28.8% from 586 million yuan in the previous year, leading to a net profit margin decrease of 3.3% to 13.3% [8][9]. - The decline in profit is attributed to a shift in revenue structure, with lower-margin direct sales increasing relative to higher-margin franchise and agency businesses [8][9]. Market Expansion and Strategy - As of March 31, 2025, MINISO had a total of 7,768 stores, with a net increase of 978 stores year-on-year, including 4,275 in China and 3,213 overseas [9][10]. - The company is focusing on closing underperforming small stores while opening larger ones, with an average new store size of nearly 300 square meters [10][13]. - MINISO's overseas revenue grew by 30.3%, contributing to a 3% increase in total revenue share from international markets [6][9]. IP Strategy and Challenges - The company has been heavily investing in external IP acquisitions, with IP-related expenses reaching 421 million yuan in 2024, a nearly 30% increase year-on-year [14][15]. - Despite the high costs, MINISO continues to launch over 10,000 new IP products annually, but faces challenges in maintaining product exclusivity and differentiation in a competitive market [14][15]. Future Outlook - MINISO plans to spin off its rapidly growing toy brand TOP TOY for a potential IPO, aiming to raise approximately 300 million USD [15][16]. - The company is also set to consolidate its operations with Yonghui Supermarket, which may increase short-term profitability pressures due to ongoing restructuring efforts [18][22]. - CEO Ye Guofu remains optimistic about future performance, emphasizing refined operational strategies and enhanced IP collaborations [23].

Core Viewpoint - MINISO's Q1 2025 financial report shows total revenue of 4.43 billion yuan, a 19% year-on-year increase, but net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 28.5% to 420 million yuan, leading to significant stock price declines in both Hong Kong and US markets [1][2][4] Financial Performance - Total revenue for Q1 2025 reached 4.43 billion yuan, up 19% year-on-year [2][3] - Gross margin improved to 44.2%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points compared to the same period last year, marking the highest gross margin for a first quarter [2][6] - Net profit for Q1 2025 was 420 million yuan, down 28.8% from 586 million yuan in the same quarter last year [4][6] - Adjusted net profit decreased by 4.8% to 587 million yuan, with adjusted net profit margin dropping from 16.6% to 13.3% [4][6] Market Expansion - As of March 31, 2025, MINISO had a total of 7,488 stores globally, a net increase of 858 stores year-on-year [3][4] - Domestic store count reached 4,275, with a net increase of 241 stores, while overseas store count was 3,213, reflecting a net increase of 617 stores [3][4] - The company is implementing a "big store strategy" to enhance channel structure and has opened 8 MINISO LAND stores, with 15 more in preparation [3][4] Cost Structure and Profitability - Sales and distribution expenses increased by 46.7% year-on-year to 1.021 billion yuan, primarily due to the expansion of overseas direct stores [4][6] - The shift in revenue structure, with a decrease in high-margin franchise and agency business, has diluted overall profit margins [4][6] IP Strategy - The increase in gross margin is attributed to the IP strategy and interest consumption, with a gross margin of 44.2% in March 2025, the highest for that month historically [6][8] - MINISO has collaborated with over 150 external IPs since 2016, with significant reliance on external IPs leading to increased authorization costs, which rose by 39.6% in Q1 2025 [6][8] - The company faces intense competition in the IP space, with rising costs and pressure on profitability due to over-reliance on external IPs [6][8]

Group 1 - The company's overall revenue for Q1 2025 was 4.43 billion yuan, representing a year-over-year increase of 18.9% [1] - The gross profit margin was 44.2%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points year-over-year [1] - Operating profit was 710 million yuan, showing a year-over-year decline of 4.05% [1] - Adjusted net profit for the quarter was 590 million yuan, down 4.9% year-over-year, with an adjusted net profit margin of 13.3%, a decrease of 3.3 percentage points year-over-year [1] Group 2 - Domestic business showed high-quality development, with same-store daily sales expected to continue improving; revenue from Miniso China in Q1 was 2.5 billion yuan, up 9.1% year-over-year [1] - The company shifted from a rapid expansion model to a focus on high-quality growth, closing 111 stores, reducing the total number of stores from 4,386 to 4,275 [1] - The optimization of inventory and store upgrades in the domestic market is expected to enhance same-store performance [1] Group 3 - Overseas revenue reached 1.6 billion yuan in Q1, a year-over-year increase of 30.3%, accounting for 36% of total revenue, an increase of 3 percentage points [2] - The number of overseas stores reached 3,213, with a net increase of 95 stores; the number of direct-operated stores was 548, with an increase of 45 stores [2] - The rapid expansion of overseas direct-operated stores incurred upfront costs, which temporarily pressured net profit margins, but there is potential for improvement in single-store net profit margins through refined operations [2] Group 4 - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 20.54 billion, 24.43 billion, and 28.28 billion yuan, respectively, with year-over-year growth rates of 21%, 19%, and 16% [2] - Adjusted net profit forecasts for the same years are 2.76 billion, 3.35 billion, and 4.06 billion yuan, with year-over-year growth rates of 1%, 21%, and 21% [2] - The company maintains a "buy" rating based on these projections [2]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported its Q1 2025 earnings, showing a mixed performance with revenue growth but a decline in net profit, indicating challenges in profitability despite revenue increases in both domestic and international markets [1][2][3]. Domestic Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved domestic revenue of 24.94 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.1%, despite a net reduction of 111 stores, resulting in a total of 4,275 stores, which is an increase of 241 stores year-on-year [1]. - Same-store sales showed improvement, with a decline in the low single digits for Q1 2025, and the year-to-date same-store performance also indicated a narrowing decline [1]. International Performance - The company opened 95 new overseas stores in Q1 2025, bringing the total to 3,213 stores, which is a year-on-year increase of 617 stores, reflecting a 24.6% growth in average store count [2]. - Overseas revenue reached 15.92 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30.3%, with single-store revenue showing a 4.6% increase [2]. TOP TOY Brand Expansion - The TOP TOY brand expanded rapidly, with a total of 280 stores as of Q1 2025, an increase of 120 stores year-on-year [2]. - Revenue for TOP TOY in Q1 2025 was 340 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 58.9%, although average single-store revenue decreased by 11.95% [3]. Profitability and Cost Structure - The gross margin for Q1 2025 was 44.2%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points year-on-year, driven by a higher proportion of overseas revenue and a shift towards higher-margin products [3]. - Operating expenses increased significantly, with sales, management, and financial expense ratios rising, primarily due to investments in direct stores and increased costs related to personnel and logistics [3]. Future Outlook - The company is positioned as a global leader in the retail sector, leveraging its supply chain and channel advantages for rapid expansion, with expectations for continued revenue growth in the coming years [4]. - Projected revenues for 2025-2027 are estimated at 210.1 billion yuan, 246.1 billion yuan, and 280.4 billion yuan, with net profits expected to reach 29.5 billion yuan, 36.5 billion yuan, and 43.3 billion yuan respectively [4].

Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 4.43 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.9%, with a gross margin of 44.2%, up 0.8 percentage points year-on-year, and an adjusted net profit of 590 million yuan, down 4.8% year-on-year [1] - The domestic same-store sales showed improvement, with a significant recovery in sales performance since the beginning of the year, and a notable recovery during the May Day holiday [1] - The company achieved a total of 4,275 stores in China by the end of March 2025, with a net closure of 111 stores, focusing on high-quality development and refined store network strategy [1] Group 2: International Operations - In Q1 2025, the company's overseas revenue reached 1.59 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30.3%, despite high base pressure from the previous year [2] - The company added 95 new stores overseas, focusing on markets in Asia and North America, with a stable performance in overseas same-store sales when viewed from a two-year compound growth perspective [2] - Since April, there has been a month-on-month improvement in same-store performance in key overseas markets such as Mexico and the United States, supported by the execution of the IP strategy and store quality enhancement [2] Group 3: Strategic Outlook - The company is committed to a five-year strategic plan aimed at stable profit growth, with projected revenues of 20.54 billion yuan, 24.60 billion yuan, and 29.55 billion yuan for 2025-2027, corresponding to growth rates of 20.9%, 19.7%, and 20.2% respectively [2] - Adjusted net profits are expected to be 2.86 billion yuan, 3.68 billion yuan, and 4.56 billion yuan for the same period, with growth rates of 4.97%, 28.74%, and 24.04% respectively [2] - The company maintains an "overweight" rating due to its supply chain advantages and strengthened IP conversion capabilities, alongside ongoing global strategic initiatives [2]

Summary of Miniso (MNSO US) Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Miniso (MNSO US) - **Sector**: Specialty Retail - **Market Cap**: USD 13.81 billion - **Current Share Price**: USD 22.19 - **Target Price**: USD 25.10 (previously USD 27.70) [4][26] Key Points Industry and Market Dynamics - **Overseas Expansion Impact**: The expansion of self-operated stores overseas has negatively impacted margins, leading to a decline in operating profit margin (OPM) [2][26] - **Focus Shift in China**: Management has shifted focus from expansion to same-store sales growth (SSSG) in China, resulting in a narrowing decline in SSSG from double digits in 2H25 to mid-single digits in 1Q25 [2][3] Financial Performance - **1Q25 Results**: Revenue growth in mainland China increased to 9% in 1Q25 from 6.5% in 4Q24, despite a reported net profit decline of 28.5% year-over-year to RMB 416 million [2][26] - **Operating Profit Margin**: OPM in 1Q25 decreased by 4 percentage points year-over-year to 16%, below the medium-term target of 20% [2][3] - **Net Profit Estimates**: The net profit estimates for 2025-27 have been lowered by 19-26% due to expectations of lower overseas margins and increased losses from the Yonghui acquisition [3][23][24] Future Projections - **Long-term Outlook**: The company expects overseas markets to become significant contributors to revenue and profit in the long run, but short-term investments are required to scale retail capabilities, particularly in the US [3][26] - **2025-27 Estimates**: The OPM is projected to recover to 17.2% in 2027 from 16.7% in 2025, with overseas OPM expected to improve to 13.2% in 2027 [3][24] Valuation Adjustments - **Target Price Reduction**: The target price has been cut by 9.4% to USD 25.10 primarily due to lower earnings estimates [4][26] - **Earnings Estimates**: The earnings estimates for 2025 have been reduced by 19-26%, reflecting lower expectations for overseas business performance [3][26] Shareholder Returns - **Buyback Program**: The company has initiated a HKD 2 billion buyback program with a 50% payout ratio, estimating a total yield of approximately 5% on the stock [3][26] Important Financial Metrics - **Revenue Growth**: Expected revenue growth of 20.3% in 2025, with net profit projected to decline by 17.0% year-over-year [23] - **Operating Profit Margin**: OPM is expected to stabilize at 17% for the next few years [15][24] - **EPS Estimates**: EPS for 2025 is estimated at 8.26 CNY, down from previous estimates [7][14] Risks and Considerations - **Margin Pressure**: The ongoing pressure on margins due to overseas expansion and higher costs related to acquisitions poses a risk to profitability [2][3] - **Market Conditions**: The ability to achieve targeted OPM and revenue growth will depend on market conditions and the effectiveness of the company's strategic initiatives [3][24] Conclusion Miniso is navigating challenges related to overseas expansion and margin pressures while focusing on stabilizing growth in its core market of China. The adjustments in earnings estimates and target prices reflect a cautious outlook, with a long-term view that overseas markets will eventually contribute positively to the company's financial performance.