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8月26日【中銀做客】恆指、中芯、華虹、泡泡瑪特、比亞迪電子、老鋪黃金、比亞迪、小米、美的集團、名創優品
Ge Long Hui· 2025-08-26 19:19
Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index (HSI) approached 26,000 points, with a current sentiment leaning towards bullish, as indicated by a ratio of 70% bull certificates to 30% bear certificates [1][2] - The market experienced a decline of over 300 points, closing at 25,524 points, suggesting a potential adjustment in the market [1][3] - Trading volume in Hong Kong exceeded 300 billion, indicating a vibrant market atmosphere, but caution is advised regarding risk management [1][3] Bull and Bear Certificates - Investors are advised to consider bull certificates with a recovery price of 25,100 points, such as product 68189, which has a leverage of over 40 times [2] - For bearish positions, the bear certificate 65935 with a recovery price of 26,188 points and a leverage of over 30 times is recommended [2] - The importance of monitoring recovery prices and market sentiment when trading bull and bear certificates is emphasized [3] Chip Sector - The chip sector remains a focal point, driven by the demand for AI development and domestic chip security concerns in China [5] - Notable stocks include SMIC (000981) and Hua Hong Semiconductor, with recommended products such as the call options with exercise prices of 58 and 67 respectively [5][6] - The performance of chip stocks has been strong, with significant capital inflow observed [5][6] Individual Stocks - Pop Mart (09992) has been included in the Hang Seng Index, reaching a historical high of 339.8 HKD, indicating strong market support [6] - BYD Electronics (00285) is in a consolidation phase, with recommended products for leveraged investment [8] - Midea Group (00300) and Miniso (09896) are also highlighted for their strong performance and potential for further gains, with specific products suggested for investment [13][14] Investment Strategies - Investors are encouraged to utilize leverage cautiously and consider the time value of options, especially for products nearing expiration [10][11] - The importance of analyzing support and resistance levels when selecting investment products is highlighted [3][10] - The overall sentiment in the consumer sector remains positive, with several stocks showing strong upward momentum [13][14]
名创优品(09896.HK):25H1超预期 看好同店恢复+北美快速扩张
Ge Long Hui· 2025-08-26 19:14
Core Viewpoint - The company has exceeded performance expectations in H1 2025, with a slight decline in profitability, driven by strong revenue growth and strategic expansion in both domestic and overseas markets [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, the company achieved revenue of 4.966 billion yuan, a 23.1% increase, surpassing the previous estimate of 4.84 billion yuan, with adjusted operating profit of 0.852 billion yuan and an operating profit margin of 17.2% [1]. - For H1 2025, the company reported revenue of 9.393 billion yuan, a 21.1% increase, with adjusted net profit of 1.279 billion yuan, showing a slight year-on-year increase, and an adjusted net profit margin of 13.6% [1]. Group 2: Regional Performance - In mainland China, the company generated revenue of 5.827 billion yuan, a 15.9% increase, with a slight decline in the number of direct stores and partner stores [1]. - The overseas market achieved revenue of 3.566 billion yuan, a 30.5% increase, with North America contributing 1.295 billion yuan, a 69.7% increase, accounting for 13.79% of total revenue [1]. Group 3: Strategic Initiatives - The company is implementing a large store strategy, with large stores currently making up 5% of total stores in mainland China and contributing to double-digit percentage growth [2]. - The company is focusing on localized expansion overseas, with a recent successful opening of three stores in Austin, Texas, enhancing brand recognition and customer traffic [2]. - The company is increasing investment in IP, balancing international licensed IP and proprietary IP, with expectations for proprietary IP to drive significant sales growth [2]. Group 4: Investment Outlook - The company is expected to maintain high growth driven by same-store recovery and rapid overseas expansion, with projected revenues of 21.242 billion yuan, 25.574 billion yuan, and 29.407 billion yuan for 2025-2027 [3]. - The forecasted net profit for the same period is 2.413 billion yuan, 3.467 billion yuan, and 4.323 billion yuan, with corresponding PE ratios of 22.14, 15.41, and 12.36 [3].
名创优品(09896.HK):2025Q2名创业务同店销售显著改善 经营拐点显现
Ge Long Hui· 2025-08-26 19:14
Core Viewpoint - The company reported strong revenue growth and positive adjusted net profit for Q2 2025, exceeding previous guidance, indicating a potential operational turnaround [1][3]. Financial Performance - For Q2 2025, the company achieved revenue of 4.966 billion, a year-on-year increase of 23.1%, and adjusted net profit of 0.692 billion, up 10.6% year-on-year [1]. - For H1 2025, the company reported revenue of 9.393 billion, a 21.1% increase year-on-year, and adjusted net profit of 1.279 billion, reflecting a 3.0% year-on-year growth [1]. - The adjusted net profit margin for H1 2025 was 13.6%, down 2.4 percentage points year-on-year, while for Q2 2025, it was 13.9%, down 1.6 percentage points year-on-year [1]. Business Segments - Domestic same-store sales for MINISO turned positive in Q2 2025, with H1 revenue of 5.115 billion, an 11.4% year-on-year increase [2]. - Overseas, MINISO achieved H1 revenue of 3.534 billion, a 29.4% year-on-year increase, with a net addition of 189 stores [2]. - TOP TOY reported H1 revenue of 0.742 billion, a significant 73.0% year-on-year increase [2]. Profitability and Cash Flow - The company's gross margin for H1 2025 was 44.3%, up 0.6 percentage points year-on-year, driven by an increase in high-margin overseas direct sales [3]. - Operating cash flow for H1 2025 was 1.014 billion, aligning closely with net profit, indicating healthy cash generation [3]. Future Outlook - The company plans to continue expanding its store network and expects revenue growth to reach 21.216 billion, 25.799 billion, and 30.633 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [3]. - Projected net profits for the same years are 2.606 billion, 3.464 billion, and 4.239 billion, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 17.0, 12.8, and 10.4 [3].
名创优品(9896.HK):Q2盈利能力环比改善 发力自有IP矩阵
Ge Long Hui· 2025-08-26 19:14
机构:华西证券 根据公司业绩PPT,25Q2 国内MINISO 同店实现低个位数增长(Q1 为同比下滑),且同店改善趋势延 续至25Q3,截止2025 年8 月15 日,2025 年累计同店已取得同比正增长。公司坚持大店战略,推进门店 升级,根据公司公告,上海南京东路MINISO LAND 店开店9 个月销售额突破1 亿元,25Q2 公司30 家 净增门店中有7 家为MINISO LAND 店。 MINISO 海外保持较快的拓店速度,北美同店环比改善:截止2025H1 末,公司海外MINISO 门店达到 3307 家,YOY+554 家,QOQ+94 家,保持较快的拓店速度。25Q2 公司MINISO 海外同店同比低个位数 下滑,但美国同店Q2 起环比改善,截止2025 年8 月15 日,美国同店已恢复正增长(25H1北美中个位数 下滑)。 鉴于国内及海外同店改善显著,根据公司业绩PPT,公司对2025 全年收入增速指引从不低于22.8%上调 至25%。 25Q2 毛利率保持提升,经营利润率降幅收窄25Q2 公司毛利率44.28%,环比+0.05pct,同比+0.33pct。 毛利率提升主要来自MINISO ...
名创优品- 第二季度同店销售额增长且利润率改善;基本面好转将在 2025 年下半年和 2026 年持续,推动估值重估
2025-08-26 13:23
Asia Pacific Equity Research 22 August 2025 Miniso - H / ADR 2Q SSSG and margin improving QoQ; fundamental turnround to continue in 2H25 and 2026, driving valuation re-rating Miniso's 2Q25 sales/adjusted OP were up 23%/8.5% yoy (vs 19%/-5% in 1Q25), ahead of guidance and consensus estimates. The better-than-expected 2Q turnaround came from: 1) China SSSG turned positive and the overseas SSSG decline narrowed; 2) China net openings turned positive; and 3) the group OP margin contraction narrowed on overseas ...
成倍激增!中国潮玩,全球买单
(原标题:成倍激增!中国潮玩,全球买单) 21世纪经济报道记者 刘婧汐 实习生 陈晗章 广州报道 年中季,海外市场收入暴涨成为了头部中国潮玩企业财报中的高频关键词。 2025年上半年,泡泡玛特(09992.HK)海外营收达到55.93亿元,同比大增439.60%,海外营收占比升 至40.31%;受益于前一年低基数,布鲁可(00325.HK)上半年海外营收达到1.1亿元,相较去年同期增长 899%,占总收入的8.3%,带动总营收扭亏为盈;同期,名创优品(09896.HK)品牌海外业务收入35.34亿 元,同比增长29.4%,占名创优品品牌收入的40.9% 要看到的是,中国潮玩企业已经在海外市场布局已久。 早在2015年,名创优品就启动了全球化战略,在新加坡的核心商圈开设了海外第一家门店。泡泡玛特则 于2020年开出了韩国首店,虽然稍晚一步,但去年以来爆火的LABUBU却带动了整个中国潮玩行业的 强势输出。 中国潮玩,全球买单;高附加值,不靠低价。这批中国潮玩企业,走出了一条与以往不同的出海路。 海外市场全面开花 受益于去年的低基数,"中国版乐高"布鲁克海外市场以近九百倍的增速遥遥领先。 2024年前,布鲁可海外 ...
成倍激增!中国潮玩 全球买单
年中季,海外市场收入暴涨成为了头部中国潮玩企业财报中的高频关键词。 早在2015年,名创优品就启动了全球化战略,在新加坡的核心商圈开设了海外第一家门店。泡泡玛特则 于2020年开出了韩国首店,虽然稍晚一步,但去年以来爆火的LABUBU却带动了整个中国潮玩行业的 强势输出。 中国潮玩,全球买单;高附加值,不靠低价。这批中国潮玩企业,走出了一条与以往不同的出海路。 2025年上半年,泡泡玛特(09992.HK)海外营收达到55.93亿元,同比大增439.60%,海外营收占比升 至40.31%;受益于前一年低基数,布鲁可(00325.HK)上半年海外营收达到1.1亿元,相较去年同期增长 899%,占总收入的8.3%,带动总营收扭亏为盈;同期,名创优品(09896.HK)品牌海外业务收入35.34亿 元,同比增长29.4%,占名创优品品牌收入的40.9% 要看到的是,中国潮玩企业已经在海外市场布局已久。 海外市场全面开花 2024年前,布鲁可海外收入占比长期维持在2%上下,截至2024年下半年,仍只占总收入的2.9%。进入 2025年,布鲁可海外业务增速陡然加快,今年上半年海外营收突破1亿元,占据布鲁可总收入的8.3 ...
自有IP模式已跑通,下一个泡泡玛特会是名创优品吗?
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-08-26 10:13
"未来中国也必然会涌现出类似美国的迪士尼、时代华纳和日本的万代、三丽鸥、任天堂这样具备强大实力的平台型IP企业,这是大国崛起的必经之路,是 文化自信的必然产物。"这是名创优品集团创始人、董事会主席兼CEO叶国富不久前在第二季度及上半年业绩电话会上讲的话。 近些年名创优品保持高增长态势,根据财报显示,公司第二季度总营收达49.7亿元,同比增长23.1%,其中,海外市场营收19.4亿元,同比增长28.6%,美国 市场更是以营收超80%的同比增速成为增长新引擎。 这份成绩单的背后,是名创优品"大店战略"与"IP生态"双轮驱动的战略成果。通过MINISO LAND等创新店型的拓展,公司实现了从"规模扩张"到"质量提 升"的转型之路。与此同时,名创优品的IP生态布局正在释放巨大能量。"顶级授权IP+签约艺术家IP"的双轨策略成效显著。 渠道结构优化驱动高质量增长,大店战略成效显著 名创优品本季度业绩超预期增长,国内同店销售额更是实现了正增长。背后是公司坚定推行的"开好店、开大店"战略转型,旨在通过渠道结构优化提升品牌 形象和消费体验,助力店效、客单价和单店利润率等提升,最终转化为优异的财务表现。 MINISO LAND ...
The secret to Labubus' success? China's 'blind box' craze
CNBC· 2025-08-25 15:00
Labubu toys packaging are seen at a souvenir store in Krakow, Poland on August 21, 2025.Even Confucius is getting in on China's "blind box" craze.At the main temple in Beijing to China's greatest sage, the souvenir shops sell a range of "blind boxes," gifts packaged in such a way that buyers don't know exactly what variety of the item they're purchasing until after they commit.One popular blind box at the store is an ice cream treat with a blessing from Confucius. Worshippers pay $4.50 and, only after unwra ...
名创优品会是下一个泡泡玛特吗?上半年利润下降23%
Yang Zi Wan Bao Wang· 2025-08-25 14:36
8月21日晚间,名创优品发布2025年中报。今年上半年,名创优品实现收入93.93亿元,同比增长 21.1%;期内利润则下降至9.06亿元,同比减少23.1%。近日,南京德基广场的MINISO SPACE全球首店 开业,开业首日推出的WAKUKU新品手办两小时售罄,持续保持"周周上新"节奏。在社交平台上,该 名创优品门店成为南京德基广场新晋"必打卡地"。名创优品会是下一个泡泡玛特吗?记者实探门店,并 采访了专家。 沉浸式首店吸引年轻人打卡消费 8 月 24 日,扬子晚报/紫牛新闻记者在南京德基广场的MINISO SPACE全球首店看到,这家将潮玩与艺 术展览结合的门店,成为年轻人热衷的打卡地。哆啦 A 梦、蒙奇奇、Hello kitty、布丁狗、美乐蒂、 chiikawa、草莓熊、哈利·波特、菲力猫、……大量潮玩IP 云集,关键是推出了多款" 德基限定"首发 的 限量产品,带来许多新鲜感。 这不仅是一家商店,而是"展览—体验—零售"的沉浸式空间。门店内设有Chiikawa主题小火车、迪士尼 海盗船等艺术装置,通过霓虹灯光与巨型公仔营造"拍照友好场景",顾客拍照后上传社交平台,强化社 交传播属性。 "妈妈,这是 ...