24 May 2025 | 1:54AM HKT Miniso (MNSO) Buy Earnings review: A year of transition; SSSG sequentially improved, but margin still dragged by DTC; Buy | MNSO | 12m Price Target: $23.40 | Price: $22.19 | Upside: 5.5% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 9896.HK | 12m Price Target: HK$46.00 | Price: HK$42.25 | Upside: 8.9% | Miniso reported 1Q25 with 19% yoy revenue growth which was slightly above GSe and the company's earlier guidance of 15%-18% yoy; yet adj. OP declined by 5% yoy and was 9% below GSe, implying 4.2pp a ...

Core Viewpoint - Miniso's first-quarter performance in 2025 showed revenue growth but a significant decline in profit, leading to a nearly 18% drop in its stock price in the US market [4]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, Miniso achieved revenue of 4.427 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.9%, with a gross profit of 1.958 billion yuan, up 21.1% [2]. - However, the net profit fell to 416.5 million yuan, a decrease of 28.8% compared to 586 million yuan in the same period last year; adjusted net profit also declined by 4.8% to 587 million yuan [2]. Revenue Growth Drivers - The revenue increase was primarily driven by a 9.1% growth in Miniso's domestic revenue, supported by a strong recovery in same-store sales [2]. - Overseas revenue saw a significant increase of 30.3%, contributing to a 3% year-on-year growth in total revenue [2]. Store Expansion - As of March 31, 2025, Miniso's global store count reached 7,488, with a net increase of 858 stores year-on-year; domestic stores numbered 4,275 (net increase of 241), while overseas stores totaled 3,213 (net increase of 617) [5]. Strategic Initiatives - Miniso's CFO highlighted efforts to stabilize and control costs for US goods by increasing local asset acquisition, with nearly 40% of products sourced directly from the US [7]. - The company is exploring opportunities in various overseas markets, including Europe, Southeast Asia, Latin America, and the Middle East, with a focus on strategic partnerships and optimizing cooperation models [7]. Focus on Trendy Products - Miniso is actively expanding in the trendy toy market, with its subsidiary TOPTOY reporting Q1 2025 revenue of 340 million yuan, a 59% increase year-on-year [9]. - TOPTOY's self-developed products accounted for over 40% of its sales, with popular items contributing significantly to overseas sales [10]. Future Outlook - The CEO expressed confidence in the performance for Q2 and the full year, emphasizing continued efforts in refined operations, IP strategic cooperation, channel upgrades, store layout optimization, and supply chain management to enhance brand influence [10].

Financial Performance - The company reported Q1 2025 revenue of 4.43 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 18.9%, exceeding the market estimate of 4.41 billion RMB [1][3] - Net profit for the quarter was 416.5 million RMB, down 28.8% from 586 million RMB in the same period last year [1][3] - Adjusted net profit was 587.2 million RMB, below the expected 661.3 million RMB [1][3] - Adjusted EBITDA margin was 23.4%, down from 25.9% in Q1 2024 [1] Revenue Breakdown - Revenue from the MINISO brand reached 4.09 billion RMB, a 16.5% increase, with mainland China contributing 2.49 billion RMB (up 9.1%) and overseas markets contributing 1.59 billion RMB (up 30.3%) [4][5] - TOP TOY brand revenue was 340 million RMB, a significant increase of 58.9%, driven by rapid growth in average store count [4][5] Store Expansion - As of March 31, 2025, the total number of stores for the group was 7,768, with a net increase of 978 stores year-on-year [5][6] - The number of MINISO stores reached 7,488, with 4,275 located in mainland China and 3,213 overseas, marking a net increase of 241 and 617 stores respectively [6][7] Management Commentary - The CEO expressed confidence in achieving sustainable high-quality growth, attributing revenue growth to a strong recovery in same-store sales and strategic store network development [8] - The company plans to enhance collaboration with overseas partners, upgrade store formats, and improve operational efficiency to unlock expansion potential [8]

Market Overview - US stock market opened significantly lower, with the Dow Jones down 1.12%, Nasdaq down 1.59%, and S&P 500 down 1.24% [1] Technology Sector - Major tech stocks experienced declines, with Nvidia, Amazon, Intel, TSMC, AMD, and Meta all falling over 2% [1] - Apple saw a drop of over 3%, influenced by Trump's threat to impose a 25% tariff on the company if iPhones are not manufactured in the US [1] Company Specifics - Miniso's stock plummeted over 19% after reporting Q1 adjusted net profit significantly below expectations [1]

Group 1 - Bawang Chaji plans to open 1,000 new stores in mainland China, 50 in Hong Kong, and 110 overseas by 2025 [2] - Chinese companies are expanding into Brazil, marking a significant development in the country's internet sector [3] - Thailand has emerged as a leading market for TikTok e-commerce due to its stable and balanced market conditions [4] Group 2 - Yiwu business owners are facing challenges as U.S. merchants struggle to repay debts amid trade tensions [5] - 52TOYS is preparing for a Hong Kong IPO with a reported loss of 122 million, while 23% of its revenue comes from overseas [6] - Square and Harmony Technology have secured nearly 100 million in Series B funding to expand their smart production capabilities in the optical medical sector [7] Group 3 - OpenAI is collaborating with former Apple executives to produce 100 million hardware units for AI applications [8] - U.S. importers are rapidly building bonded warehouses to stockpile Chinese goods in response to trade policy uncertainties [9] - Miniso reported that its overseas stores reached 3,213 by March 31, 2025, with a 30% year-on-year increase in overseas revenue [9] Group 4 - Roborock aims for global scale deployment of its autonomous driving technology, having recently entered Dubai and Abu Dhabi [9] - Cainiao is accelerating the commercialization of its autonomous vehicles, with plans to deploy over 200,000 units in the next three to five years [10] - OpenAI has launched its first international project in the UAE, with plans for significant investment in AI infrastructure [11] Group 5 - EV Electra plans to invest $1 billion in restructuring high-end electric vehicle company Hozon, with commitments for significant overseas procurement [11]

Core Viewpoint - Miniso's stock dropped 8.6% in pre-market trading despite reporting a year-on-year revenue growth of 18.9% in Q1, reaching 4.427 billion yuan, and an adjusted EBITDA increase of 7.5% to 1.0373 billion yuan [1] Financial Performance - Q1 revenue increased by 18.9% year-on-year to 4.427 billion yuan [1] - Adjusted EBITDA rose by 7.5% year-on-year to 1.0373 billion yuan [1]

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue increase of 18.9% year-on-year to RMB 4.427 billion (USD 610.1 million) for the three months ending March 31, 2025 [1] - Same-store sales decline in mainland China significantly narrowed to a mid-single-digit percentage [1] - Gross margin reached 44.2%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points year-on-year [1] - Adjusted EBITDA grew by 7.5% year-on-year to RMB 1.037 billion (USD 142.9 million) [1] - Year-to-date shareholder returns amounted to approximately RMB 0.987 billion [1]

Revenue Growth - Revenue increased by 18.9% year-on-year to RMB 4,427.0 million (USD 610.1 million) for the quarter ended March 31, 2025[9]. - Revenue for the quarter reached RMB 4,427.0 million (USD 610.1 million), marking an 18.9% year-over-year increase, primarily driven by a 16.5% increase in average store count[16]. - Revenue from the Miniso brand reached RMB 3,506,657 thousand in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 16.5%[49]. Profitability - Gross profit increased by 21.1% year-on-year to RMB 1,958.0 million (USD 269.8 million), with a gross margin of 44.2%, up from 43.4% in the same period last year[9]. - Adjusted EBITDA rose by 7.5% year-on-year to RMB 1,037.3 million (USD 142.9 million), with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 23.4%[11]. - Adjusted net profit was RMB 587.2 million (USD 80.9 million), compared to RMB 616.9 million in the same period last year, with an adjusted net profit margin of 13.3%[9]. - Operating profit was RMB 709.8 million (USD 97.8 million), slightly down from RMB 743.3 million in the previous year[20]. - Adjusted net profit margin decreased to 13.3% from 16.6% year-over-year[22]. Store Expansion - Total number of stores reached 7,768 as of March 31, 2025, with a net addition of 978 stores year-on-year[11]. - The number of MINISO stores in mainland China was 4,275, with a net addition of 241 stores year-on-year[11]. - The number of overseas MINISO stores reached 3,213, with a net addition of 617 stores year-on-year[11]. - TOP TOY store count reached 280, with a net addition of 120 stores year-on-year, and began expanding into overseas markets starting from the December 2024 quarter[11]. - The total number of stores increased to 6,790 as of March 31, 2024, from 5,812 a year earlier, representing a growth of 16.5%[13]. Cash Position - Cash position as of March 31, 2025, was RMB 7,255.3 million (USD 999.8 million), up from RMB 6,698.1 million as of December 31, 2024[11]. - Cash and cash equivalents stood at RMB 7,255.3 million (USD 999.8 million) as of March 31, 2025, compared to RMB 6,698.1 million at the end of 2024[24]. - Cash and cash equivalents are expected to rise from RMB 6,328,121 in 2024 to RMB 6,839,406 in 2025, showing a growth of about 8%[37]. Future Projections - Revenue for 2024 is projected to be RMB 3,723,531, increasing to RMB 4,427,044 in 2025, representing a growth of approximately 19%[42]. - Gross profit for 2024 is RMB 1,616,458, with an increase to RMB 1,958,037 in 2025, indicating a gross margin improvement[42]. - Operating profit for 2024 is RMB 743,285, expected to decrease to RMB 709,787 in 2025, reflecting a decline of about 4.5%[42]. - The company anticipates a decrease in net profit from RMB 585,954 in 2024 to RMB 416,459 in 2025, a decline of approximately 29%[42]. - Basic earnings per share are expected to decrease from 0.47 in 2024 to 0.34 in 2025, a decline of approximately 28%[43]. Inventory and Liabilities - The company reported a significant increase in inventory from RMB 2,750,389 in 2024 to RMB 2,833,354 in 2025, reflecting a growth of about 3%[37]. - The total liabilities are projected to increase from RMB 7,764,606 in 2024 to RMB 15,507,801 in 2025, indicating a growth of about 99%[41]. Company Strategy and Operations - The company has established a significant global retail presence since opening its first store in China in 2013, now operating a vast network of stores worldwide[29]. - The company emphasizes high-quality, aesthetically pleasing, and cost-effective products as core attributes of its offerings[29]. - The company plans to continue expanding its product offerings and enhancing its IP design capabilities to attract a broader consumer base[29]. - The company aims to provide a pleasant shopping experience that appeals to all demographics through its diverse product range[29]. - The management team will discuss financial performance during the earnings call scheduled for May 23, 2025[26]. Financial Metrics and Definitions - The adjusted net profit is defined as excluding certain non-cash and other adjustments, providing a clearer view of operational performance[31]. - The adjusted EBITDA is calculated by adding back depreciation, amortization, and financial costs to the adjusted net profit, allowing for a more comprehensive assessment of profitability[31]. - The adjusted net profit margin is calculated based on the adjusted net profit divided by revenue, providing insight into profitability relative to sales[31]. - The company encourages investors to review its financial data comprehensively rather than relying solely on individual financial metrics[33].

Group 1 - The company's revenue for the first quarter reached 4.43 billion RMB, slightly above the estimated 4.41 billion RMB [1] - Adjusted net profit was reported at 587.2 million RMB, lower than the forecast of 661.3 million RMB [1] - The adjusted EBITDA margin stood at 23.4% [1]

Group 1 - The article discusses the security vulnerability of the Go1 robotic dog from Yushu Technology, which has a backdoor that allows hackers to manipulate user data and access video streams [1][8] - Yushu Technology confirmed the existence of the security flaw but stated that the Go1 model has been discontinued for two years, and subsequent versions are not affected [1][8] - The article highlights the growing concern that robotic pets, initially seen as innovative, may become tools for surveillance due to security issues [3][8] Group 2 - The nostalgia for electronic pets, such as Tamagotchi, is evident as they continue to attract consumers despite their simplicity compared to modern robotic pets [6][8] - Tamagotchi has maintained its market presence through continuous collaborations and has seen a rise in sales, indicating a strong emotional connection with consumers [8][12] - The article notes that the appeal of electronic pets lies in their low maintenance and emotional value, contrasting with the complexities of caring for real pets [17][19] Group 3 - The emergence of AI pets like Moflin and robotic dogs reflects a shift in consumer preferences towards interactive and emotionally engaging companions [28][39] - The article raises questions about the implications of relying on electronic pets for emotional support and the potential impact on human relationships [40][42] - The high cost of AI pets, often exceeding thousands of dollars, limits accessibility for many consumers, raising concerns about the sustainability of this market segment [42][45]