Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][8]. Core Views - The online music business is experiencing healthy growth, with cost control and operational efficiency driving continuous improvement in profitability. The company achieved its first annual profit in 2023, despite a 12.5% year-on-year decrease in total revenue to 7.867 billion yuan, primarily due to a cautious operational strategy that reduced live streaming displays and lowered revenue sharing ratios, leading to a 33.6% decline in social entertainment services revenue to 3.516 billion yuan. Conversely, online music service revenue grew by 17.6% to 4.351 billion yuan, supported by strong commercialization performance and improved cost structure [5][6][10]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, the company reported total revenue of 7.867 billion yuan, a decrease of 12.5% year-on-year. The online music service revenue increased by 17.6% to 4.351 billion yuan, while social entertainment services revenue decreased by 33.6% to 3.516 billion yuan. The company achieved a gross profit of 2.103 billion yuan, up 62.6% year-on-year, with a gross margin increase from 14.4% in 2022 to 26.7% in 2023. The adjusted net profit attributable to the parent company was 819 million yuan, marking the first annual profit [5][6][7][10]. User Metrics - The online music segment saw a significant increase in monthly active users (MAU), growing by 16.5 million to 206 million. The subscription revenue rose by 20.2%, and the average revenue per paying user (ARPPU) increased by 4.2% to 6.9 yuan per month. The paid user rate improved by 1.2 percentage points to 21.4% [6][10]. Future Projections - The company is expected to switch to a price-to-earnings (PE) valuation method, forecasting adjusted net profits of 1.065 billion yuan, 1.234 billion yuan, and 1.511 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively. The estimated revenue for 2024 is projected to be 8.460 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 7.5% [6][7][10]. Valuation - Based on comparable companies, the company is assigned a dynamic PE range of 20-23 times for 2024, resulting in a fair value range of 109.22 to 125.61 Hong Kong dollars per share [8][10].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][8] Core Views - The online music business is experiencing healthy growth, with cost control and operational efficiency driving continuous improvement in profitability. The company achieved its first annual profit in 2023, despite a 12.5% year-on-year decrease in total revenue to 7.867 billion yuan, primarily due to a cautious operational strategy that reduced live streaming displays and lowered revenue sharing ratios, leading to a 33.6% decline in social entertainment services revenue to 3.516 billion yuan. Conversely, online music service revenue grew by 17.6% to 4.351 billion yuan, supported by strong commercialization performance and improved cost structure [5][6][10]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, the company reported total revenue of 7.867 billion yuan, a decrease of 12.5% year-on-year. The online music service revenue increased by 17.6% to 4.351 billion yuan, while social entertainment services revenue decreased by 33.6% to 3.516 billion yuan. The company achieved a gross profit of 2.103 billion yuan, up 62.6% year-on-year, with a gross margin increase from 14.4% in 2022 to 26.7% in 2023. The adjusted net profit attributable to the parent company was 819 million yuan, marking the first annual profit [5][6][10]. User Metrics - The online music segment saw a significant increase in monthly active users (MAU), growing by 16.5 million to 206 million. The subscription revenue rose by 20.2%, and the average revenue per paying user (ARPPU) increased by 4.2% to 6.9 yuan per month. The paid user rate improved by 1.2 percentage points to 21.4% [6][10]. Future Projections - The company is expected to switch to a price-to-earnings (PE) valuation method, forecasting adjusted net profits of 1.065 billion yuan, 1.234 billion yuan, and 1.511 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively. The estimated revenue for 2024 is projected to be 8.460 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 7.5% [7][10][11]. Valuation - Based on comparable companies, the company is assigned a dynamic PE range of 20-23 times for 2024, resulting in a fair value range of 109.22 to 125.61 Hong Kong dollars per share [8][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 133.85, equivalent to RMB 121.47 [5][3]. Core Insights - The company's revenue for H2 2023 is projected at RMB 3.96 billion, reflecting a year-over-year decline of 16% but a slight increase of 1% compared to the previous half [2]. - The gross margin for H2 2023 is expected to be 28.7%, an increase of 13 percentage points year-over-year, primarily due to increased membership revenue diluting copyright costs [2]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company for H2 2023 is projected at RMB 440 million, showing a significant year-over-year increase of 793% [2]. - Online music revenue for H2 2023 is expected to reach RMB 2.32 billion, a year-over-year increase of 22%, driven by enhancements in the music library and copyright agreements with top labels [2]. - Social entertainment revenue for H2 2023 is projected at RMB 1.63 billion, a decline of 42% year-over-year, attributed to a more cautious operational strategy by management [2]. Financial Summary - The company’s projected net profits for 2023, 2024, and 2025 are RMB 734 million, RMB 1.036 billion, and RMB 1.521 billion respectively, reflecting significant growth from previous estimates [3]. - The expected revenue for 2023 is RMB 7.939 billion, with a projected decline of 11.7% year-over-year, followed by a slight recovery in 2024 [3]. - The gross margin is expected to improve from 26.7% in 2023 to 31.6% in 2024 and 35.4% in 2025, indicating a positive trend in profitability [3][9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating with an updated target price of HKD 110.64 [3][4]. Core Insights - The company's performance in 2023 exceeded expectations, achieving profitability for the year, driven by accelerated community commercialization and improved profitability [3][4]. - The adjusted net profit for 2023 reached RMB 8.19 billion, marking a significant turnaround from losses in previous years, with a net profit margin of 12.3% [3][4]. - The report highlights the potential for online music subscriptions, cost optimization in content services, and AI-driven community growth as key factors for future profitability [3][4]. Financial Overview - The company reported a total revenue of RMB 39.59 billion in the second half of 2023, a year-on-year decrease of 16.4%, but aligned with expectations due to strong online music performance [3][4]. - The gross profit margin improved to 29%, up 13 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to increased subscription sales and optimized content service costs [3][4]. - The adjusted net profit for the second half of 2023 was RMB 4.87 billion, a year-on-year increase of 375% [3][4]. User Metrics - The company achieved a monthly active user (MAU) count of 206 million in 2023, an increase of 8.7% year-on-year, with a stable daily active user (DAU) to MAU ratio above 30% [3][4]. - The number of registered independent musicians on the platform reached approximately 684,000, with a total music library of 149 million tracks [3][4]. Revenue Breakdown - Online music revenue for the second half of 2023 was RMB 23.30 billion, a year-on-year increase of 21.6%, with subscription revenue contributing RMB 19.40 billion, up 23% [3][4]. - The number of paying users reached 46.49 million, with a payment rate of 22.67% and an average revenue per paying user (ARPPU) of RMB 7, reflecting a 3.7% year-on-year increase [3][4]. - Social entertainment revenue was RMB 15.48 billion, down 42% year-on-year, indicating a need for recovery in this segment [3][4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Cloud Music [1][2][3] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 7.87 billion HKD in 2023, a decrease of 12.5% year-on-year, but achieved a net profit of 730 million HKD, recovering from a loss of 220 million HKD in 2022 [1][2] - The online music service revenue increased by 17.6% year-on-year to 4.35 billion HKD, driven by a significant rise in subscription revenue [2] - The company has optimized music copyright costs, with a 30.5% year-on-year decrease in copyright amortization costs, leading to profitability in its membership business [2][3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, the company achieved a revenue of 7.87 billion HKD, down 12.5% from 2022, while net profit reached 730 million HKD, a turnaround from a loss of 220 million HKD in 2022 [1][2] - Adjusted net profit for 2023 was 820 million HKD, compared to a loss of 110 million HKD in 2022 [1] Revenue Breakdown - Online music service revenue was 4.35 billion HKD, up 17.6% year-on-year, with subscription revenue contributing 3.65 billion HKD, a 20.2% increase [2] - Social entertainment services and other revenues were 3.52 billion HKD, down 33.6% year-on-year due to improved management of live streaming and social traffic monetization [2] Cost Management - The company's operating costs were 5.76 billion HKD, a decrease of 25.1% year-on-year, resulting in a gross margin of 26.7%, up 12.3 percentage points [2] - The company has focused on cost optimization, leading to improved operational efficiency and profitability for 2024 [2][3] User Engagement - The platform had 206 million monthly active users in 2023, an increase of 8.7% year-on-year, with a strong user engagement reflected in a daily active user to monthly active user ratio of over 30% [3] - The company plans to enhance product innovation in 2024, particularly leveraging advancements in AI technology to improve user experience [3] Profit Forecast - The report forecasts net profits of 1.05 billion HKD, 1.47 billion HKD, and 1.99 billion HKD for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 17X, 12X, and 9X [3][5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company has demonstrated continuous improvement in gross margin, leading to enhanced profitability, and is now on a fast track for profit growth [6] - The company achieved total revenue of 7.939 billion (RMB) in 2023, a year-on-year decrease of 11.75%, primarily due to a cautious operational strategy that reduced live streaming displays and lowered revenue sharing ratios [6] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023 was 734 million (RMB), compared to a loss of 221 million (RMB) in 2022, with a gross margin of 26.7%, up 12.4 percentage points year-on-year [6] - The increase in gross margin is attributed to the rise in online music service revenue share from 41% in 2022 to 55% in 2023, along with improvements in copyright cost structure and revenue sharing ratios [6] - The company is expected to continue its profitability improvement, with net profit forecasts for 2024, 2025, and 2026 at 1.008 billion, 1.281 billion, and 1.444 billion (RMB) respectively [6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, the company reported total revenue of 7.939 billion (RMB), down 11.75% year-on-year, while net profit was 734 million (RMB), a significant recovery from a loss of 221 million (RMB) in 2022 [6] - The gross margin improved to 26.7%, and the net margin reached 9.3%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 12.4 percentage points and 11.7 percentage points respectively [6] User Growth and Engagement - The company’s online music platform reached 206 million monthly active users in 2023, an increase of 8.7% year-on-year, with a daily active to monthly active user ratio exceeding 30% [7] - The number of independent musicians on the platform grew to 684,000, up 11.9% year-on-year, and the online music service membership reached 44.12 million, a 15% increase [7] Technological Advancements - The company is accelerating the application of AI technology in music production and consumption, with a one-stop AI music creation tool developed by its AI music lab [8] - The expansion into multiple consumption scenarios aims to enhance music monetization opportunities, leveraging AI to reduce content costs and broaden content supply [8]

[Table_Page] 公告点评|媒体Ⅱ 证券研究报告 [T[【aTbalbel_eS_uTmi广tlem] ary] 发 传 媒 & 海 外 】 云 音 乐 [公Tab司le_评Inve级st] 买入 当前价格 90.45港元 （09899.HK） 合理价值 110.05港元 前次评级 买入 音乐社区为基石，24 年会员有望加速增长 报告日期 2024-03-03 核心观点： 相[Ta对ble市_P场icQ表uot现e]  公司发布2023年业绩：云音乐23年实现收入78.67亿元人民币，同 20.0% 云音乐 恒生指数 比下滑13%，vs.彭博一致预期（下同）为78.69亿元。23年毛利率为 0.0% 26.7%，vs.一致预期为26.1%，同比提升12.3pct。23年净利润为7.34 -20.0% 亿元，vs.一致预期为 5.49 亿元。经调整净利润为 8.19 亿元，利润率 -40.0% 为10%，vs.一致预期为6.29亿元，22年同期为1.15亿亏损。 -60.0%  未来仍更注重用户增长和社区差异化建设，基于音乐和社区的商业化 -80.0% 能力逐步夯实。23年MAU达2.06亿，同比提 ...

2024年3月2日 公司研究 差异化内容+产品创新，首次实现全年盈利 ——云音乐（9899.HK）2023 年业绩点评 要点 增持（维持） 当 前价：90.45港元 事件：公司发布23年全年业绩，实现营收78.67亿元人民币，同比下降12.5%， 主要系主动调整社交娱乐运营策略。23年公司盈利能力显著改善，实现毛利润 21.03亿元，同比上升62.6%，对应毛利率由22年的14.4%大幅提升至26.7%， 作者 系在线音乐业务商业化表现强劲、版权成本结构及收入分成比例改善所致；公司 分析师：付天姿 CFA，FRM 实现经调整净利润8.2亿元，对应经调整净利率10.4%，首次实现全年盈利。 执业证书编号：S0930517040002 021-52523692 点评：差异化内容+社区生态及产品创新驱动在线音乐业务增长稳健。23年在线 futz@ebscn.com 音乐实现收入43.5亿元（yoy+17.6%），其中会员订阅收入36.5亿元，同比提 升20.2%；会员订阅量价双升，月平均活跃用户数同比增长8.7%至2.06亿人， 联系人：杨朋沛 付费用户数较23H1增加237万人至4412万人，月平均ARPPU同比 ...

M N 4 Mar 2024 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update Cloud Music (9899 HK) Solid core music business and margin expansion outlook Target Price HK$106.50 Cloud Music announced FY23 financial results: total revenue dropped by 13% (Previous TP HK$99.50) YoY to RMB7.87bn in FY23, in line with our/consensus estimate. 2H23 total Up/Downside 17.7% revenue was down by 16% YoY to RMB3.96bn, mainly due to the adjustment of Current Price HK$90.45 social entertainment business (-42% YoY). ...

交银国际研究 公司更新 互联网 收盘价 目标价 潜在涨幅 2024年3月1日 港元90.45 港元104.00↑ +15.0% 云音乐 (9899 HK) 成本优化好于预期，利润释放趋势不变  2023年下半年利润超预期。2023年下半年云音乐收入39.6亿元（人民币， 个股评级 下同），同比降16%，环比增1%，与我们/市场预期一致。毛利率同/环比 买入 优化13/4个百分点，受益于在线音乐规模效应、版权成本优化以及社交 收入分成比例收窄。经调整净利润为 4.9 亿元，好于我们和市场预期的 3.0亿元，主要因毛利率改善及利息收入高于预期。 1年股价表现 9899 HK  2023下半年业务亮点：1）会员订阅收入同比增23%，得益于会员规模增 30% MSCI中国指数 加（同比+19%，环比净增 470 万），及月人均付费（ARPPU）持续优化 20% 10% （同/环比+3%/2%至7元）。2）品牌/效果广告拓展新客户，激励广告下 0% 半年开始贡献收入增量。3）强化播客/有声书等多元化内容供给，2023年 -10% 长音频收听时长同比增71%。4）尽管社交娱乐收入受业务调整影响同比 -20% 降42% ...