Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of 446.3 HKD, indicating a potential upside of 16% from the current stock price of 387.8 HKD [1][2][3]. Core Insights - The company demonstrated resilience with a 5% year-over-year increase in total revenue to 3.07 billion USD in Q3, alongside a 4% increase in system sales. Core operating profit rose by 18%, and net profit increased by 22% to 297 million USD [2][3]. - The company has adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2024, 2025, and 2026 to 950 million, 980 million, and 1.09 billion USD respectively, with corresponding EPS estimates of 17.8, 18.3, and 20.5 HKD [2][3]. - The company has expanded its store count to 15,900, with a net addition of 438 stores in Q3, reflecting a 12.5% year-over-year growth [3]. Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 9.57 billion USD, with a growth rate of 14.72% expected in 2024, followed by 2.94% in 2025 and 8.87% in 2026 [5][14]. - Net profit for 2023 is estimated at 478 million USD, with a significant recovery projected in subsequent years, reaching 901 million USD in 2024 and 948 million USD in 2025 [5][14]. - The company maintains a gross margin of approximately 70%, with a net profit margin expected to stabilize around 8% in the coming years [5][15]. Valuation Analysis - The valuation methods employed include comparable company analysis and discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis, with a target price of 446.3 HKD derived from these methods, reflecting a 16.9% upside potential [7][9]. - The average PE ratio for comparable companies is projected at 18.8x for 2025, while the company is assigned a PE of 25x due to its market position and growth potential [7][9]. - The DCF analysis estimates a reasonable market value of 167.4 billion HKD, corresponding to a stock price of 434.3 HKD [7][11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Yum China (YUMC.US/9987.HK) with a target price of HKD 479.7 for the Hong Kong-listed shares and USD 61.5 for the US-listed shares [2][3] Core Views - Yum China's 3Q24 operating profit growth exceeded expectations due to cost reduction and efficiency improvements [2] - The company's flexible operational strategies and strong management capabilities are driving improved same-store sales and continued cost optimization [2] - Yum China plans to increase shareholder returns from USD 3 billion to USD 4.5 billion for 2024-2026, which is expected to boost market sentiment [2] Same-Store Sales Outlook - Same-store sales are expected to trend positively in 2025, with KFC likely to return to positive same-store sales growth and Pizza Hut narrowing its decline [2] - KFC's average check is expected to remain stable, while Pizza Hut's average check may face downward pressure due to the increasing proportion of WOW stores [2] Cost Optimization and Efficiency - Despite declining average checks, restaurant-level margins remained flat YoY in 3Q24, and operating margins expanded by 1.0ppt [2] - The company expects cost optimization efforts to continue, though the marginal benefits may weaken in 2025 [2] - Management aims to maintain the administrative expense ratio below 5% in the medium to long term [2] Franchise Expansion - Yum China plans to accelerate franchise development, with franchise stores expected to account for 40%-50% of KFC's net new openings and 20%-30% of Pizza Hut's net new openings [2] - The franchise model is seen as complementary to company-owned stores, helping to expand into new markets and regions [2] - Franchise stores are expected to achieve operating margins comparable to company-owned stores, with strict controls in place to ensure operational quality and food safety [2] Financial Performance and Forecasts - Revenue is projected to grow from USD 11,352 million in 2024E to USD 13,041 million in 2026E, with net income attributable to shareholders increasing from USD 919 million to USD 1,059 million over the same period [6] - The company's EV/EBITDA multiple is expected to decline from 9.9x in 2024E to 8.4x in 2026E, reflecting improved profitability and efficiency [6] Market Sentiment and Valuation - The report highlights a potential upside of 27.3% for Yum China's US-listed shares and 24.3% for its Hong Kong-listed shares based on the target prices [3][4] - The company's market capitalization stands at USD 8,386 million, with a 3-month average daily trading volume of USD 144.9 million [3]

FF305 翌日披露報表 (股份發行人 ── 已發行股份或庫存股份變動、股份購回及/或在場内出售庫存股份) 表格類別： 股票 狀態： 新提交 公司名稱： 百勝中國控股有限公司("本公司") 呈交日期： 2024年11月6日 如上市發行人的已發行股份或庫存股份出現變動而須根據《香港聯合交易所有限公司（「香港聯交所」）證券上市規則》(「《主板上市規則》」)第13.25A條 / 《香港聯合交易所有限公司GEM證券 上市規則》(「《GEM上市規則》」)第17.27A條作出披露，必須填妥第一章節 。 | 第一章節 | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1. 股份分類 | | 普通股 | 股份類別 | 不適用 | | 於香港聯交所上市 | | 是 | | | 證券代號 (如上市) | | 09987 | 說明 | | | | | | | | A. 已發行股份或庫存股份變動 | | | | | | | | | | | | 事件 | | 已發行股份（不包括庫存股份）變動 | | | 庫存股份變動 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Yum China, indicating a positive outlook for the company's stock performance [5]. Core Views - Yum China demonstrated strong operational efficiency and cost control, with a Q3 restaurant profit margin of 17%, stable year-on-year [2]. - The company plans to increase its shareholder return by 50% from $3 billion to $4.5 billion for the years 2024-2026, with a target of returning $1.5 billion to shareholders in 2024 [4]. - The company is focusing on expanding its franchise model, aiming to increase the proportion of franchise stores from 15-20% to 40-50% in the coming years [3]. Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, Yum China reported revenues of $3.07 billion, a year-on-year increase of 5%, with a system sales growth of 4% [1]. - The operating profit for Q3 was $371 million, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 15%, with an operating profit margin of 12.1% [1]. - The GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders was $297 million, up 22% year-on-year, while the Non-GAAP net profit also stood at $297 million, marking a 20% increase [1]. Store Expansion and Market Strategy - The company opened 438 new stores in Q3, with 145 being franchise stores, representing 33% of the new openings [3]. - As of Q3 2024, Yum China had a total of 15,861 stores, with KFC and Pizza Hut accounting for 11,283 and 3,606 stores, respectively [3]. - The company is leveraging favorable raw material prices and operational efficiency projects to maintain stable profit margins despite pressures on same-store sales [2]. Earnings Forecast - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for FY2024-2026 is $902 million, $978 million, and $1.05 billion, respectively, with corresponding EPS of $2.37, $2.57, and $2.76 [4][9]. - The report projects a P/E ratio of 21, 19, and 18 for FY2024, FY2025, and FY2026, respectively, based on the closing price on November 5 [4][9].

| --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|---------------------------------------------- ...

更小的肯德基，更便宜的必胜客，更多的加盟店。 文丨朱丽琨 制图丨黄帧昕 编辑丨钱杨 黄俊杰 百胜中国收获了历史最高总收入的季度。据其昨日发布的季报，其 2024 年三季度核心运营利润同比增长 18%。总收入达到 30.7 亿美元。 在消费低迷、行业残酷竞争的背景下，这是少见的增长。2024 年上半年，北京年主营业务收入大于等于 200 万元的餐饮企业利润同比下跌 88.8%，每卖 100 元只能得到 3 毛 7 的利润。相对稳定的快餐服务利润 同比也跌去近一半；上海年主营业务收入大于等于 200 万元以上住宿和餐饮业企业营业利润为 -7.7 亿元。 就在两年前，咖啡靠补贴烧钱卖到九块九是大新闻。而如今，九块九的选择越来越多，越来越普遍，不止 咖啡。进入中国 37 年、拥有约 40 万员工的餐饮巨人在转身，适应一个九块九可以买到汉堡、炸鸡、咖啡 的竞争生态。这家公司越来越多谈论 "质价比"、提速加盟、开出更多小店。旗下的肯德基开始卖九块九的 汉堡，开出 500 家咖啡专门店（肯悦咖啡），提供多款九块九的咖啡饮料；通过营销，它将每个星期四变 成节日；开放加盟，用更低成本开出更多的店，推出的小店型最低加盟成本在 5 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for Yum China [3]. Core Views - The report expresses confidence in the company's operational management capabilities and its ability to provide high returns to shareholders through dividends and buybacks [2]. Summary by Sections Performance Overview - In Q3 2024, the company reported revenue of $3.071 billion, a year-on-year increase of 5% (4% excluding currency effects). Operating profit reached $371 million, up 15% year-on-year, with an operating margin of 12.1%, an increase of 1.0 percentage points. Net profit was $297 million, reflecting a 22% year-on-year growth (21% excluding currency effects), and EPS increased by 33% year-on-year (32% excluding currency effects) [3]. Store Expansion and Sales - As of Q3 2024, the total number of stores reached 15,861, a 12% increase year-on-year, with KFC at 11,283 stores (14% increase) and Pizza Hut at 3,606 stores (13% increase). The company is accelerating the expansion of franchise stores, expecting the proportion of franchise stores in new KFC openings to rise to 40%-50% and for Pizza Hut to increase to 20%-30% in the coming years [3]. Same-Store Sales - Same-store sales decreased by 3% in Q3, an improvement from a 4% decline in Q2, recovering to 88.2% of 2019 levels (Q2 was 86.7%). KFC's same-store sales fell by 2% (Q2 was -3%), recovering to 88.1% of 2019 levels (Q2 was 87.7%), while Pizza Hut's same-store sales declined by 6% (Q2 was -8%), recovering to 86.4% of 2019 levels (Q2 was 86.3%) [3]. Profitability - The restaurant profit margin in Q3 was 17.0%, unchanged year-on-year (comparable basis +0.5 percentage points). KFC's restaurant profit margin was 18.3%, down 0.3 percentage points year-on-year (comparable basis +0.3 percentage points), while Pizza Hut's margin was 12.8%, up 0.1 percentage points year-on-year (comparable basis +0.6 percentage points). Factors contributing to margin improvement include enhanced operational efficiency, favorable raw material prices, and reduced management expenses [3]. Shareholder Returns - The company plans to increase shareholder returns from $3 billion to $4.5 billion between 2024 and 2026, a 50% increase from the original target. The buyback and dividend target for 2024 remains at $1.5 billion, with $1.24 billion already returned in the first three quarters [3].

Yum China Holdings, Inc. (YUMC) reported third-quarter 2024 results, with earnings beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate and revenues missing the same.  The top and bottom lines increased on a year-over-year basis.Stay up-to-date with all quarterly releases: See Zacks Earnings Calendar.Following the results, shares of the company gained 7.2% during trading hours on Nov. 4. Positive investor sentiments were witnessed as the company emphasized its commitment to returning capital to its shareholders while susta ...

FF305 翌日披露報表 (股份發行人 ── 已發行股份或庫存股份變動、股份購回及/或在場内出售庫存股份) 表格類別： 股票 狀態： 新提交 公司名稱： 百勝中國控股有限公司("本公司") 呈交日期： 2024年11月5日 如上市發行人的已發行股份或庫存股份出現變動而須根據《香港聯合交易所有限公司（「香港聯交所」）證券上市規則》(「《主板上市規則》」)第13.25A條 / 《香港聯合交易所有限公司GEM證券 上市規則》(「《GEM上市規則》」)第17.27A條作出披露，必須填妥第一章節 。 FF305 | 9). | 於2024年8月22日在香港購回之股份 | 17,500 | 0 % | HKD | 267.06 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 變動日期 2024年8月22日 | | | | | | 10). | 於2024年8月23日在香港購回之股份 | 17,600 | 0 % | HKD | 265.91 | | | 變動日期 2024年8月23日 | | | | | | 11). | 於2024年8月26日在香港購回之股份 | 17,800 | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [6]. Core Insights - The company reported Q3 total revenue of $3.07 billion, a 5% increase year-over-year, with core operating profit rising by 18% to $369 million [2]. - The company plans to increase the proportion of franchise stores, aiming for 40-50% for KFC and 20-30% for Pizza Hut in the coming years [2]. - KFC's same-store sales decline has narrowed, with a 6% increase in system sales at constant exchange rates [2]. - Pizza Hut's same-store sales also showed improvement, with a 2% increase in system sales at constant exchange rates [2]. - The company plans to enhance shareholder returns to $4.5 billion from 2024 to 2026, a 50% increase from previous plans [2]. Financial Performance Summary - Q3 revenue was $3.07 billion, with a 5% increase year-over-year, and core operating profit reached $369 million, an 18% increase [2]. - KFC's same-store sales decreased by 2%, while system sales increased by 6% at constant exchange rates [2]. - Pizza Hut's same-store sales decreased by 6%, with system sales increasing by 2% at constant exchange rates [2]. - The company reported a net increase of 438 stores in Q3, with 145 of those being franchise stores, representing 33% of the total [2]. - The company has a strong cash flow with $3.15 billion in net cash as of the end of Q3 [2]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders is $920 million, $1.01 billion, and $1.09 billion for 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E respectively, representing year-over-year growth rates of 10.8%, 10.4%, and 7.5% [2]. - The expected P/E ratios for 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E are 18.9, 17.5, and 16.2 respectively [2].