2月4日，在消费市场迭代加速、竞争格局深度调整的行业背景下，百胜中国凭借 "提效与创新"战略， 于 2025 年交出了一份兼具增长力度与质量的成绩单，实现了系统销售额与同店销售额双增长，经营利 润率创下美国上市以来同期新高。 市场分析指出，随着 2026 年 20000 家门店目标的推进，这家餐饮巨头将进一步巩固行业领先地位，在 消费变革与市场竞争的浪潮中，持续以创新驱动增长，以品质赢得消费者，续写品牌发展的新篇章。 规模利润双增长 2025 年，百胜中国的增长战略成效显著，核心经营指标全面向好：全年业绩稳健增长，总收入同比增 长4%至118亿美元，经营利润为13亿美元，同比增长11%。 在营收端，同店销售额连续第三个季度实现正增长，增长势头稳健；系统销售额持续攀升，第四季度同 比增幅高达 7%，彰显出品牌对消费者的强大吸引力。在利润端，创新与提效双轮驱动战略持续发力， 2025 年各季度经营利润率均实现同比扩张，全年经营利润率达到 10.9%，剔除特殊项目后，创下公司 美国上市以来的最高水平。 对于 2026 年的发展，百胜中国制定了清晰的规划。百胜中国计划全年净新增门店超过 1900 家，冲击 20000 ...

证券研究报告·海外公司点评·旅游及消闲设施(HS) 百胜中国（09987.HK） 百胜中国 2025Q4 及全年业绩公告点评：质 地稳健的高股息龙头，维持推荐 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2024A | 2025A | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万美元） | 11,303 | 11,797 | 12,686 | 13,426 | 14,262 | | 同比(%) | 2.96 | 4.37 | 7.54 | 5.83 | 6.23 | | 归母净利润（百万美元） | 911.00 | 929.00 | 1,042.71 | 1,143.75 | 1,262.86 | | 同比(%) | 10.16 | 1.98 | 12.24 | 9.69 | 10.41 | | EPS-最新摊薄（美元/股） | 2.57 | 2.62 | 2.94 | 3.23 | 3.56 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 22.10 | 21.67 | 19.31 | 17.61 | ...

Core Insights - Yum China reported Q4 2025 revenue of $2.82 billion, a year-over-year increase of 9% (7% excluding foreign currency effects) [1] - The company achieved an operating profit of $187 million in Q4 2025, up 25% year-over-year, with a corresponding operating profit margin of 6.6%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points [1] - For the full year 2025, revenue reached $11.8 billion, a 4% increase year-over-year, exceeding Bloomberg consensus expectations [1] Financial Performance - Q4 2025 same-store sales growth was 3%, surpassing Bloomberg's consensus estimate of 1.6%, with transaction volume increasing by 4% [1] - KFC's Q4 2025 system sales grew by 8%, with same-store sales up 3% and transaction volume also increasing by 3% [1] - The restaurant profit margin for Q4 2025 was 13.0%, benefiting from optimized sales costs and improved rental and other expense ratios [1] Store Expansion and Business Model - In 2025, the company added 1,706 new stores, bringing the total to 18,101, with franchise stores accounting for 36% of the total [2] - KFC added 1,349 new stores, while Pizza Hut added a record 444 stores [2] - The company plans to add over 1,900 new stores in 2026, with a target of increasing the franchise ratio to 40%-50% [2] Shareholder Returns - Yum China achieved its shareholder return target of $1.5 billion for 2025, with $350 million in dividends and $1.14 billion in share buybacks [2] - The company plans to maintain a similar return of $1.5 billion in 2026, with a 21% increase in quarterly cash dividends [2] - As of the end of 2025, the company had $2 billion in net cash and $840 million in free cash flow, indicating strong liquidity [2] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company has raised its net profit forecasts for 2026 and 2027 to $1.015 billion and $1.079 billion, respectively, with an introduction of a forecast for 2028 at $1.163 billion [2] - The target price for the stock has been adjusted to HKD 498.81 and USD 63.42, reflecting a slight increase in the premium rate due to expected profit improvements and strong shareholder returns [2]

Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of $2.823 billion in Q4 2025, representing an 8.8% year-over-year increase, with a net profit of $140 million, up 21.7% [1] - The KFC division generated $2.125 billion in revenue, an 8.75% increase, while the Pizza Hut division reported $540 million, a 5.9% increase [1] - The company expects same-store sales growth to remain stable, with a guidance of 0-2% growth for 2026 [1] Financial Performance - In Q4 2025, operating profit reached $187 million, reflecting a 23.8% increase, and earnings per share (EPS) were $0.40 [1] - The operating profit margin for KFC was 10.5%, up 0.7 percentage points, while Pizza Hut's margin was 3.7%, an increase of 1.0 percentage point [1] - Delivery revenue grew by 34%, with restaurant revenue accounting for 53% of total sales [1] Store Expansion - The company added 587 new stores in Q4 2025, bringing the total to 18,101 stores, with KFC and Pizza Hut having 12,997 and 4,168 stores respectively [2] - By the end of 2026, the company anticipates adding over 1,900 new stores, with a franchise ratio expected to reach 40-50% for new openings [2] Cost Structure and Profitability - Labor costs accounted for approximately 29.3% of total expenses, up 1.1 percentage points year-over-year, while food and material costs were 31.7%, down 0.2 percentage points [2] - The restaurant profit margin improved to 13.0%, an increase of 0.7 percentage points, driven by revenue leverage [2] Shareholder Returns - The company announced a shareholder return of approximately $1.5 billion for 2026, with expected annual returns of $900 million to over $1 billion from 2027 to 2028 [2]

Group 1 - The core investment recommendation is to maintain a "Buy" rating, with projected net profits for 2026-2028 at $10.05 billion, $10.62 billion, and $11.43 billion respectively, and an EPS forecast of $2.91, $3.21, and $3.56 for the same years, leading to a target price of HKD 500.00 based on a 22x PE ratio for 2026 [1] - In Q4 2025, the company reported revenues of $28.23 billion, a year-on-year increase of 9% (7% excluding exchange rate effects), with operating profit at $1.87 billion, up 25% (23% excluding exchange rate effects), and a net profit of $1.4 billion, up 24% (22% excluding exchange rate effects) [1] Group 2 - Same-store sales accelerated in Q4 2025, with a 3% year-on-year increase, compared to 1% in Q3 2025; KFC same-store sales rose by 3% while Pizza Hut's increased by 1% [2] - As of the end of 2025, the total number of stores reached 18,101, a 10% year-on-year increase, with KFC stores numbering 12,997, reflecting a 12% increase [2] - The proportion of takeaway sales increased to 53% in Q4 2025, up from 51% in Q3 2025 [2] Group 3 - The company's restaurant profit margin improved to 13.0% in Q4 2025, a 0.7 percentage point increase year-on-year, driven by reduced costs in food, packaging, and rent [3] - KFC's restaurant profit margin reached 14.0%, benefiting from operational efficiencies and favorable raw material prices, although this was partially offset by increased delivery costs [3] - Pizza Hut's restaurant profit margin was 9.9%, also improved due to operational efficiencies and favorable raw material prices, but impacted by higher costs associated with increased takeaway sales [3]

Core Insights - The company achieved revenue of $2.823 billion in Q4 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 9% (or 7% excluding foreign currency effects) [1] - Operating profit reached $187 million, up 25% year-on-year (or 23% excluding foreign currency effects) [1] Sales Performance - Same-store sales growth accelerated in Q4 2025, with system sales increasing by 7% year-on-year (KFC +8%, Pizza Hut +6%) [1] - Same-store sales increased by 3% year-on-year (KFC +3%, Pizza Hut +1%) [1] - KFC's same-store transaction volume and average ticket price grew by 3% and remained stable, respectively, while delivery sales surged by 34% year-on-year [1] - Pizza Hut's same-store transaction volume rose by 13%, but the average ticket price fell by 11% [1] Store Expansion - The company added 587 new stores in Q4 2025 (KFC +357, Pizza Hut +146), bringing the total to 18,101 stores [2] - The company plans to add 1,706 new stores in 2025, with a target of 1,600-1,800 new stores [2] - By 2026, the company aims to exceed 20,000 stores with over 1,900 new stores, accelerating the pace of expansion [2] Operational Efficiency - Restaurant profit margin improved to 13.0% in Q4 2025, up 0.7 percentage points year-on-year [2] - Core operating profit was $185 million, a 23% increase year-on-year, driven by operational efficiency and favorable commodity prices [2] - Net profit for Q4 2025 was $140 million, up 24% year-on-year, with a 14% increase when excluding the impact of investments in Meituan [2] New Business Developments - The company made significant progress in new business initiatives, including the expansion of KFC Coffee to 2,200 stores and KPRO to over 200 stores [3] - The WOW concept helped Pizza Hut enter over 100 new cities, enhancing brand penetration in lower-tier markets [3] - The introduction of core and innovative products contributed to sales growth, with KFC launching new chicken products and Pizza Hut's handmade thin-crust pizza gaining popularity [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company raised its net profit forecast for 2026-2027 to $1.027 billion and $1.109 billion, respectively, with an additional forecast for 2028 at $1.183 billion [4] - The projected EPS for 2026-2028 is $2.90, $3.13, and $3.34, respectively [4] - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 17x, 16x, and 15x for 2026-2028, indicating strong growth potential in the fast-food sector [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Yum China (09987.HK) [1] Core Insights - Yum China reported a 4% year-over-year increase in total revenue for the full year 2025, with a 9% increase in Q4 revenue, exceeding previous expectations [7] - The company achieved a net profit growth of 2% for the full year and 24% for Q4, attributed to automation, lean operations, and improved raw material costs [7] - The total number of stores reached 18,100 by the end of 2025, with a net addition of 1,706 stores throughout the year [7] - Same-store sales showed significant improvement, with a 1% increase for the full year and a 3% increase in Q4 [7] - The outlook for 2026 is positive, with plans to exceed 20,000 stores and a capital expenditure of $600-700 million [7] - The company plans to return $1.5 billion to shareholders in 2025, with a dividend yield of nearly 8% [7] - Earnings forecasts for 2026-2028 have been adjusted upwards, with projected net profits of $1.04 billion, $1.14 billion, and $1.26 billion respectively [7] Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for 2024 to 2028 are $11.30 billion, $11.80 billion, $12.69 billion, $13.43 billion, and $14.26 billion respectively, with year-over-year growth rates ranging from 2.96% to 7.54% [1] - Net profit projections for the same period are $911 million, $929 million, $1.04 billion, $1.14 billion, and $1.26 billion, with growth rates from 1.98% to 12.24% [1] - The latest diluted EPS estimates are $2.57, $2.62, $2.94, $3.23, and $3.56 for the years 2024 to 2028 [1] - The current P/E ratios are projected to decrease from 22.10 in 2024 to 15.94 in 2028 [1]

Core Insights - The company has shown resilient same-store sales growth for three consecutive quarters, prompting an upward revision of net profit forecasts for 2026-2027 to $10.19 billion and $11.06 billion, respectively, with a new forecast for 2028 at $11.70 billion, corresponding to PE valuations of 17.4x, 15.2x, and 13.8x [1] Financial Performance - In Q4 2025, the company achieved revenue of $28.23 billion, an increase of 8.8%, with operating profit at $1.87 billion (+23.8%) and net profit at $1.40 billion (+21.7%), resulting in an EPS of $0.40 [1] - By brand, KFC generated revenue of $21.25 billion (+8.75%) with an operating profit of $2.23 billion (+16.1%) and an operating margin of 10.5% (+0.7 percentage points). Pizza Hut reported revenue of $5.40 billion (+5.9%) and an operating profit of $20 million (+42.9%) with an operating margin of 3.7% (+1.0 percentage points) [1] - Delivery revenue increased by 34%, with restaurant revenue accounting for 53% of total sales [1] Store Expansion - The total number of stores reached 18,101 by the end of 2025, with KFC and Pizza Hut having 12,997 and 4,168 stores, respectively. In Q4 2025, the company added 587 stores, with KFC and Pizza Hut contributing 357 and 146 stores, respectively. The proportion of franchise stores reached 15% for KFC and 8% for Pizza Hut by the end of 2025 [3] Cost Structure and Profitability - In Q4 2025, salaries and employee benefits accounted for approximately 29.3% of total costs, up by 1.1 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to increased delivery costs. Food and raw materials accounted for 31.7%, while property rent and other operating expenses made up about 26.0%. The restaurant profit margin was 13.0%, an increase of 0.7 percentage points year-on-year, driven by revenue leverage [4] Future Outlook - The company expects to add over 1,900 stores in 2026, with total stores projected to exceed 20,000 by the end of that year. The proportion of franchise stores among new openings is expected to reach 40-50% [5] - The company announced a shareholder return of approximately $1.5 billion for 2026, with expected annual returns of $900 million to over $1 billion for 2027-2028, surpassing $1 billion in 2028 [5]

Core Viewpoint - Dongwu Securities has adjusted the profit forecast for Yum China (09987) for 2026-2027 to $1.043 billion and $1.144 billion, respectively, from previous estimates of $989 million and $1.059 billion, with a new profit forecast for 2028 at $1.263 billion, reflecting year-on-year growth of 12.24%, 9.69%, and 10.41% [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - For the full year of 2025, system sales and total revenue increased by 4% each, while Q4 saw a 7% and 9% increase, respectively, exceeding previous expectations [1] - Adjusted net profit for 2025 increased by 2% year-on-year, with Q4 showing a significant 24% increase, attributed to automation systems, lean operations, and optimized raw material prices [2] - Restaurant profit margins improved, with KFC and Pizza Hut showing respective profit margin increases of 0.5 and 0.8 percentage points in 2025 [2] Group 2: Store Expansion - By the end of 2025, the total number of stores reached 18,100, with net additions of 1,706 and 587 stores for the year and Q4, respectively [3] - KFC and Pizza Hut store counts were 13,000 and 4,200, with annual net increases of 1,349 and 444 stores [3] Group 3: Same-Store Sales - Overall same-store sales increased by 1% for the full year and 3% for Q4, with KFC and Pizza Hut both showing a 1% increase in same-store sales for the year [4] - KFC's same-store sales and transaction volume increased by 3% in Q4, while Pizza Hut's same-store sales increased by 1% [4] Group 4: Future Outlook - The company anticipates exceeding 20,000 stores by 2026, with over 3,000 stores by 2030, and plans for capital expenditures of $600-700 million [5] - The company plans to return $1.5 billion to shareholders in 2025, with a dividend yield of nearly 8% [5]

Core Viewpoint - Dongwu Securities has adjusted the profit forecast for Yum China (09987) for 2026-2027 to $10.43 billion and $11.44 billion, respectively, from previous estimates of $9.89 billion and $10.59 billion, with a new profit forecast for 2028 at $12.63 billion, reflecting year-on-year growth of 12.24%, 9.69%, and 10.41% [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In 2025, the total system sales and total revenue increased by 4% year-on-year, with Q4 showing a 7% and 9% increase, respectively, exceeding previous expectations [1] - Adjusted net profit for 2025 increased by 2% year-on-year, with Q4 showing a significant 24% increase, attributed to automation systems, lean operations, and improved raw material prices [2] - The operating profit for KFC in 2025 increased by 8% year-on-year, while for Pizza Hut, it rose by 19%, with restaurant profit margins improving for both brands [2] Group 2: Store Expansion - By the end of 2025, the total number of stores reached 18,100, with a net addition of 1,706 stores for the year, including 1,349 KFC stores and 444 Pizza Hut stores [3] Group 3: Same-Store Sales - Overall same-store sales increased by 1% for 2025, with Q4 showing a 3% increase, marking three consecutive quarters of positive year-on-year growth [4] - KFC's same-store sales for Q4 increased by 3%, while Pizza Hut's same-store sales showed a 1% increase, indicating a focus on value products [4] Group 4: Future Outlook - The company plans to exceed 20,000 stores by 2026, with a capital expenditure of $6-7 billion and a shareholder return of $1.5 billion in 2025 [5] - The dividend yield is projected to be nearly 8%, with a significant portion of new stores being franchise locations [5]