Investment Rating - Buy (首次评级) [1] Core Views - 百胜中国 is the largest chain restaurant company in China with 15,022 stores as of 1Q24, operating brands like KFC, Pizza Hut, and Lavazza [1] - The company has a high and stable ROE, averaging 15.0% from 2019 to 2023, and plans to return at least $3 billion to shareholders through dividends and buybacks from 2024E to 2026E [1] - The Western fast-food industry in China is resilient, with KFC holding a 16.4% market share in 2023 and Pizza Hut leading the pizza market with a 37.4% share in 2021 [1] - 百胜中国's competitive advantages include strong brand recognition, a robust supply chain, and digital transformation, which have improved operational efficiency and customer loyalty [1] - Future growth drivers include store miniaturization, expansion into lower-tier cities, and increased profitability through optimized store models [1] Company Overview - 百胜中国 operates six brands, including KFC, Pizza Hut, and Lavazza, with a total of 15,022 stores as of 1Q24 [1] - KFC and Pizza Hut are the main revenue contributors, accounting for 75% and 21% of total revenue in 2023, respectively [1] - The company has a strong digital presence, with 89% of sales coming from digital orders as of 1Q24 [1] - 百胜中国 has a well-established supply chain, with 33 logistics centers and strategic investments in key suppliers like Sunner Development [1] Industry Analysis - The Western fast-food market in China reached RMB 368.8 billion in 2023, accounting for 7.0% of the total餐饮 market, up 1.7 percentage points from 2016 [1] - The industry has a high连锁化率 due to fewer SKUs, less regional taste variation, and mature supply chains [1] - KFC leads the Western fast-food market with a 16.4% market share in 2023, while Pizza Hut dominates the pizza market with a 37.4% share in 2021 [1] Competitive Advantages - **Brand Strength**: KFC and Pizza Hut have been in China for over 30 years, with 440 million and 150 million members, respectively, as of 2023 [1] - **Product Innovation**: The company launches over 500 new products annually and has a "Billion Dollar Club" for high-performing products [1] - **Supply Chain**: 百胜中国 has a fully integrated supply chain, from采购 to餐厅, with 33 logistics centers and strategic investments in key suppliers [1] - **Digital Transformation**: The company has a strong digital ecosystem, with 89% of sales来自 digital orders as of 1Q24, and has significantly reduced labor costs through数字化 [1] Future Growth Drivers - **Store Miniaturization**: KFC and Pizza Hut have introduced smaller store formats, reducing initial investment by RMB 300,000 and RMB 400,000, respectively, and improving cash利润率 by 2-3 percentage points [1] - **Expansion**: The company plans to increase store density in higher-tier cities and expand into lower-tier markets, with potential for KFC and Pizza Hut to grow their store counts by 74.0% and 82.5%, respectively, by 2026 [1] - **Profitability Improvement**: With the increasing proportion of smaller, more profitable stores, the company expects further improvements in store-level profitability [1] Financial Projections - 百胜中国 is expected to achieve net profits of $850 million, $940 million, and $1.03 billion from 2024E to 2026E, with a CAGR of 10.3% [1] - The company's PE ratio is projected to be 12.9X, 11.0X, and 9.5X for 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E, respectively [1] - Based on a 50% weighting of PE and DCF valuation methods, the target price is set at HK$352.75, leading to a "Buy" rating [1]

华福证券 餐饮 2024年06月12日 公 司 百胜中国（ ） 09987.HK 买入（首次评级） 研 究 国内连锁餐饮龙头，多措并举带动管理能力提升 当前价格： 270.20港元 目标价格： 392.95港元 投资要点： 基本数据  快餐业龙头，多品牌协同共筑高质量发展。公司旗下品牌众多包括肯 总股本/流通股本(百万股) 388.21/388.21 德基，必胜客，塔可钟等知名餐饮品牌。截至24年3月份公司所经营门店数 流通市值(百万港元) 104,894.64 每股净资产(港元) 116.58 量达到15022家，公司快餐品牌深耕国内市场多年，门店遍布全国，具有强 资产负债率(%) 41.67 一年内最高/最低价(港元) 485.00/260.20 大的市场基础和客户需求粘性，品牌势能为公司业绩韧性提供支撑，23年 一年内股价相对走势 公司实现业绩恢复性增长，其中营收同比+14.72%；归母净利润同比+90%。 公 司  餐饮行业复苏红利看头部，连锁化率提升公司综合竞争力。根据国家 深 统计局数据，23年全国餐饮收入52890亿元，同比上升20.4%，疫后消费复 度 苏动力足，餐饮大赛道具备强经济韧性， ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" [8] Core Views - The company reported a 1% revenue increase in Q1 2024, with same-store sales recovering to approximately 90% of 2019 levels [8][10] - The company plans to open approximately 1,500 to 1,700 new stores in 2024 and aims for capital expenditures of around $700 million to $850 million [10] - The company is increasing its stock buyback and dividend payouts, returning about $1.5 billion to shareholders [10] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2024, the company achieved revenue of $2.96 billion, a 1% year-over-year increase (7% increase when excluding foreign exchange effects) [2] - Adjusted operating profit was $374 million, down 11% year-over-year, while adjusted net profit was $287 million, down 2% year-over-year [2] - The operating margin was 12.6%, a decrease of 1.7 percentage points year-over-year [2] Store Expansion and Performance - As of Q1 2024, the total number of restaurants reached 15,022, with a net increase of 378 restaurants, marking a record for the first quarter [8] - The profit margin for restaurants was 17.6%, down 2.7 percentage points year-over-year [8] Cost Structure - In Q1 2024, raw materials and consumables increased by 7.3% to $900 million, accounting for 32.1% of revenue [8] - Employee costs rose by 3.7% to $710 million, making up 25.4% of revenue [8] - Management expenses decreased by 8.5% to $140 million, representing 4.7% of revenue [8] Future Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 are $11.589 billion, $12.388 billion, and $13.225 billion, with year-over-year growth rates of 5.6%, 6.9%, and 6.8% respectively [9][10] - Net profit projections for the same period are $873 million, $935 million, and $1.017 billion, with corresponding growth rates of 5.6%, 7.0%, and 8.8% [10] Valuation - The estimated fair value per share is between $44.9 and $56.1, corresponding to a price range of HKD 350.5 to HKD 438.2 based on a PE ratio of 20-25 for 2024 [10][15]

M N 2 May 2024 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update Yum China (9987 HK) 2Q24E is tough but turnaround is still possible o The 1Q24 results of Yum China were satisfactory, however the catering industry Target Price HK$348.13 remain subdued and hence we have become more cautious about YUMC’s (Previous TP HK$384.17) 2Q24E outlook. But since the turnaround in 2H24E should still be intact, plus Up/Downside 18.3% the massive buyback and dividend payment, we continue to maintain BUY. ...

股 票 研 究 [Table_industryInfo] 社会服务业 [ Table_Main[百I Tnaf 胜bol]e 中_Ti国tle]（ 9987） [评Tab级le_：Inv est] 增持 当前价格（港元）： 294.40 高基数下同店略降，灵活店型拓店加速 2024.05.02 海 ——百胜中国2024 年一季报点评 [ 交Ta易bl数e_M据a rket] 外 52周内股价区间（港元） 264.00- 刘越男(分析师) 宋小寒(研究助理) 504.00 公 021-38677706 010-83939087 当前股本（百万股） 391 司 liuyuenan@gtjas.com songxiaohan026736@gtjas.co 当前市值（百万港元） 114,970 （ 证书编号 S0880516030003 mS0 880122070054 中 本报告导读： [ Table_PicQuote] 52周内股价走势图 公司作为餐饮龙头同店表现相对稳定，中长期门店扩张驱动业绩增长，通过回购及分 国 香 红提高股东回报。 百胜中国 恒生指数 摘要： 港 4% [T able投_S资um建m议a ...

公司研 究 证 券研究 报 告 消费者服务 2024年05月05日 百 胜中国（09987.HK）2024年一季报点评 推 荐 （维持） 目标价：359.65港元 开店加速，持续回购彰显信心 当前价：299.00港元 事项： 华创证券研究所  百胜中国公布2024年一季度业绩，FY2024Q1 总收入增长1%至29.6亿美元。 证券分析师：王薇娜 若不计及外币换算的影响，总收入本应高出 1.54 亿美元，或增长 7%。净利 润为2.87亿美元，同比-1%，若不计及外币换算的影响，净利润yoy+5%。净 电话：010-66500993 利润率9.7%（不考虑外币换算影响-0.2pct）。 邮箱：wangweina@hcyjs.com 评论： 执业编 号：S0360517040002  24Q1系统销售额增长6%，主要得益于8%的净新增门店贡献，肯德基开店加 速，开店来看，本季度KFC门店净新增307家，为去年同期净新增门店数的 公司基本数据 两倍多，净新增加盟店58家（目前肯德基品牌整体门店中，加盟店占比12%）， 总股本(万股) 39034.03 期末KFC门店数达到10603家。必胜客本季度净新增113 ...

公开链接：https://seekingalpha.com/article/4687395-yum-china-holdings-inc-yumc-q1-2024- earnings-call-transcript 注：以下材料仅为公开资料整理，不涉及分析师的研究观点和投资建议，记录和翻译可能产生误差， 仅供参考，如有异议，请联系删除 去年第一季度调整后的营业利润是我们分拆以来最高的。这个季度是第二高的。 开店策略方面，我们仍然看好中国。我们认为中国市场在未来几年将为我们提供空白空间。在第一季 度，我们突破了15000家门店的里程碑，净开了378家新店。我们花了25年的时间在中国建立了第一家 5000家门店，花了8年的时间建立了接下来的5000家门店。剩下的5000家店只需要4年。我们的目标是 到2026年再增加5000家门店。 与某些报道相反，中国继续快速发展，每年都有数百个新的购物中心、住宅综合体和商业开发项目开 业。二线及以下城市的城市化和长期消费升级，机会巨大，住房和生活成本更便宜。另外，我们预计 今年大约30%的新店将开在新的城市或战略点，比如交通要地和旅游要地。 灵活门店：第一季度，三分之二的新店 ...

证券研究报告 | 2024年05月05日 百胜中国（09987.HK） 增持 高基数影响同店短期承压略降，门店扩张节奏趋势向好 核心观点 公司研究·财报点评 2024Q1实现经调归母净利润2.87亿美元，略优于市场一致预期。2024Q1， 社会服务·酒店餐饮 公司总收入29.58亿美元/+1.3%，收入表现略低于彭博一致预期（30.21 证券分析师：曾光 证券分析师：钟潇 亿）；经调整经营利润3.74亿美元/-10.1%；经调整归母净利润为2.87 0755-82150809 0755-82132098 zengguang@guosen.com.cn zhongxiao@guosen.com.cn 亿美元/-1.7%，略优于彭博预期（2.66亿美元）。 S0980511040003 S0980513100003 经营数据方面，整体同店收入同比-3%，其中KFC/PZH分别-2%/-5%，高 证券分析师：张鲁 基数下增速下滑；系统销售同增6%，其中KFC/PZH分别同增7%/4%；餐 010-88005377 zhanglu5@guosen.com.cn 厅利润率为17.6%/-2.7pct，其中KFC/PZH ...

Investment Rating - Maintains a "Recommend" rating [2][3] Core Views - 1Q 2024 revenue was $2.96 billion, yoy+1% (excluding currency impact, yoy+7%) [1] - Net profit was $287 million, yoy-1% (excluding currency impact, yoy+5%) [1] - Adjusted net profit was $287 million, yoy-2% (excluding currency impact, yoy+4%) [1] - System sales grew by 6% in 1Q, driven by an 8% net increase in new stores [1] - KFC system sales increased by 7%, with revenue of $2.23 billion (yoy+1%, excluding currency impact, yoy+7%) [1] - Pizza Hut system sales grew by 4%, with revenue of $595 million (flat yoy, excluding currency impact, yoy+5%) [1] - Same-store sales declined by 3%, with KFC and Pizza Hut same-store sales down by 2% and 5% respectively [1] - Restaurant operating margin was 17.6%, down 2.7 percentage points yoy [1] - KFC restaurant operating margin was 19.3%, down 2.9 percentage points yoy [1] - Pizza Hut restaurant operating margin was 12.5%, down 1.7 percentage points yoy [1] Development and Shareholder Returns - Net addition of 378 stores in 1Q, with KFC and Pizza Hut adding 307 and 113 stores respectively [2] - Total store count reached 15,022 by the end of 1Q 2024, with KFC and Pizza Hut accounting for 10,603 and 3,425 stores respectively [2] - Share buybacks and cash dividends reached $745 million in 1Q, a record high for a single quarter [2] - Full-year 2024 development plan remains unchanged, targeting net store additions of 1,500-1,700 and capital expenditure of $700-850 million [2] - Plans to return approximately $1.5 billion to shareholders through quarterly cash dividends and share buybacks in 2024 [2] Financial Forecasts - Forecasted revenue for 2024-2026: $11.6 billion, $12.852 billion, and $13.938 billion respectively [3] - Forecasted net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024-2026: $829 million, $940 million, and $1.047 billion respectively [3] - Forecasted EPS for 2024-2026: $2.12, $2.41, and $2.68 respectively [3] - P/E ratios for 2024-2026: 18x, 16x, and 14x respectively [3] Operational Metrics - Gross margin for 2024-2026: 19.73%, 20.20%, and 20.68% respectively [6] - Net margin for 2024-2026: 7.15%, 7.32%, and 7.51% respectively [6] - ROE for 2024-2026: 12.91%, 13.25%, and 13.26% respectively [6] - ROIC for 2024-2026: 10.34%, 10.84%, and 10.98% respectively [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Yum China (YUMC.US/9987.HK) with a target price of USD 49.9 and HKD 389.3, indicating a potential upside of 24.7% and 32.2% respectively [1][2][12] Core Views - Yum China is expected to continue its expansion in lower-tier cities, driving revenue growth despite short-term pressure on same-store sales and profit margins due to increased promotional activities [1] - The company aims to reach 20,000 stores by 2026, which is ahead of previous expectations, and plans to return over USD 30 billion to investors through buybacks and dividends from 2024 to 2026 [1][2] - The report anticipates a cautious outlook for Q2 2024 due to high comparative base effects from Q2 2023, but expects a recovery in same-store sales and system-wide revenue in the second half of 2024 [1][2] Financial Performance Summary - For 1Q24, system sales for KFC and Pizza Hut grew by 7% and 4% year-on-year, while same-store sales declined by 2% and 5% respectively, aligning with market expectations [1][7] - The company reported a revenue of USD 2,958 million for 1Q24, with a gross profit margin of 22.2%, down from 24.3% in 1Q23 [7][8] - The forecast for 2024 includes a revenue growth of high single digits year-on-year, with a slight contraction in operating profit margin by 50 basis points [1][2] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for Yum China are as follows: - 2024E: USD 11,692 million (up 6.5% YoY) - 2025E: USD 12,631 million (up 8.0% YoY) - 2026E: USD 13,605 million (up 7.7% YoY) [2][4] - Net profit projections are: - 2024E: USD 842 million (up 1.8% YoY) - 2025E: USD 932 million (up 10.7% YoY) - 2026E: USD 1,063 million (up 14.1% YoY) [2][4] Valuation Metrics - The report provides the following valuation metrics: - PE ratio for 2024E: 19.0 - EV/EBITDA for 2024E: 7.9 - ROE for 2024E: 13.8% [2][4]