Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of 446.3 HKD, indicating a potential upside of 16% from the current stock price of 387.8 HKD [1][2][3]. Core Insights - The company demonstrated resilience with a 5% year-over-year increase in total revenue to 3.07 billion USD in Q3, alongside a 4% increase in system sales. Core operating profit rose by 18%, and net profit increased by 22% to 297 million USD [2][3]. - The company has adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2024, 2025, and 2026 to 950 million, 980 million, and 1.09 billion USD respectively, with corresponding EPS estimates of 17.8, 18.3, and 20.5 HKD [2][3]. - The company has expanded its store count to 15,900, with a net addition of 438 stores in Q3, reflecting a 12.5% year-over-year growth [3]. Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 9.57 billion USD, with a growth rate of 14.72% expected in 2024, followed by 2.94% in 2025 and 8.87% in 2026 [5][14]. - Net profit for 2023 is estimated at 478 million USD, with a significant recovery projected in subsequent years, reaching 901 million USD in 2024 and 948 million USD in 2025 [5][14]. - The company maintains a gross margin of approximately 70%, with a net profit margin expected to stabilize around 8% in the coming years [5][15]. Valuation Analysis - The valuation methods employed include comparable company analysis and discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis, with a target price of 446.3 HKD derived from these methods, reflecting a 16.9% upside potential [7][9]. - The average PE ratio for comparable companies is projected at 18.8x for 2025, while the company is assigned a PE of 25x due to its market position and growth potential [7][9]. - The DCF analysis estimates a reasonable market value of 167.4 billion HKD, corresponding to a stock price of 434.3 HKD [7][11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Yum China (YUMC.US/9987.HK) with a target price of HKD 479.7 for the Hong Kong-listed shares and USD 61.5 for the US-listed shares [2][3] Core Views - Yum China's 3Q24 operating profit growth exceeded expectations due to cost reduction and efficiency improvements [2] - The company's flexible operational strategies and strong management capabilities are driving improved same-store sales and continued cost optimization [2] - Yum China plans to increase shareholder returns from USD 3 billion to USD 4.5 billion for 2024-2026, which is expected to boost market sentiment [2] Same-Store Sales Outlook - Same-store sales are expected to trend positively in 2025, with KFC likely to return to positive same-store sales growth and Pizza Hut narrowing its decline [2] - KFC's average check is expected to remain stable, while Pizza Hut's average check may face downward pressure due to the increasing proportion of WOW stores [2] Cost Optimization and Efficiency - Despite declining average checks, restaurant-level margins remained flat YoY in 3Q24, and operating margins expanded by 1.0ppt [2] - The company expects cost optimization efforts to continue, though the marginal benefits may weaken in 2025 [2] - Management aims to maintain the administrative expense ratio below 5% in the medium to long term [2] Franchise Expansion - Yum China plans to accelerate franchise development, with franchise stores expected to account for 40%-50% of KFC's net new openings and 20%-30% of Pizza Hut's net new openings [2] - The franchise model is seen as complementary to company-owned stores, helping to expand into new markets and regions [2] - Franchise stores are expected to achieve operating margins comparable to company-owned stores, with strict controls in place to ensure operational quality and food safety [2] Financial Performance and Forecasts - Revenue is projected to grow from USD 11,352 million in 2024E to USD 13,041 million in 2026E, with net income attributable to shareholders increasing from USD 919 million to USD 1,059 million over the same period [6] - The company's EV/EBITDA multiple is expected to decline from 9.9x in 2024E to 8.4x in 2026E, reflecting improved profitability and efficiency [6] Market Sentiment and Valuation - The report highlights a potential upside of 27.3% for Yum China's US-listed shares and 24.3% for its Hong Kong-listed shares based on the target prices [3][4] - The company's market capitalization stands at USD 8,386 million, with a 3-month average daily trading volume of USD 144.9 million [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Yum China, indicating a positive outlook for the company's stock performance [5]. Core Views - Yum China demonstrated strong operational efficiency and cost control, with a Q3 restaurant profit margin of 17%, stable year-on-year [2]. - The company plans to increase its shareholder return by 50% from $3 billion to $4.5 billion for the years 2024-2026, with a target of returning $1.5 billion to shareholders in 2024 [4]. - The company is focusing on expanding its franchise model, aiming to increase the proportion of franchise stores from 15-20% to 40-50% in the coming years [3]. Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, Yum China reported revenues of $3.07 billion, a year-on-year increase of 5%, with a system sales growth of 4% [1]. - The operating profit for Q3 was $371 million, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 15%, with an operating profit margin of 12.1% [1]. - The GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders was $297 million, up 22% year-on-year, while the Non-GAAP net profit also stood at $297 million, marking a 20% increase [1]. Store Expansion and Market Strategy - The company opened 438 new stores in Q3, with 145 being franchise stores, representing 33% of the new openings [3]. - As of Q3 2024, Yum China had a total of 15,861 stores, with KFC and Pizza Hut accounting for 11,283 and 3,606 stores, respectively [3]. - The company is leveraging favorable raw material prices and operational efficiency projects to maintain stable profit margins despite pressures on same-store sales [2]. Earnings Forecast - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for FY2024-2026 is $902 million, $978 million, and $1.05 billion, respectively, with corresponding EPS of $2.37, $2.57, and $2.76 [4][9]. - The report projects a P/E ratio of 21, 19, and 18 for FY2024, FY2025, and FY2026, respectively, based on the closing price on November 5 [4][9].

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更小的肯德基，更便宜的必胜客，更多的加盟店。 文丨朱丽琨 制图丨黄帧昕 编辑丨钱杨 黄俊杰 百胜中国收获了历史最高总收入的季度。据其昨日发布的季报，其 2024 年三季度核心运营利润同比增长 18%。总收入达到 30.7 亿美元。 在消费低迷、行业残酷竞争的背景下，这是少见的增长。2024 年上半年，北京年主营业务收入大于等于 200 万元的餐饮企业利润同比下跌 88.8%，每卖 100 元只能得到 3 毛 7 的利润。相对稳定的快餐服务利润 同比也跌去近一半；上海年主营业务收入大于等于 200 万元以上住宿和餐饮业企业营业利润为 -7.7 亿元。 就在两年前，咖啡靠补贴烧钱卖到九块九是大新闻。而如今，九块九的选择越来越多，越来越普遍，不止 咖啡。进入中国 37 年、拥有约 40 万员工的餐饮巨人在转身，适应一个九块九可以买到汉堡、炸鸡、咖啡 的竞争生态。这家公司越来越多谈论 "质价比"、提速加盟、开出更多小店。旗下的肯德基开始卖九块九的 汉堡，开出 500 家咖啡专门店（肯悦咖啡），提供多款九块九的咖啡饮料；通过营销，它将每个星期四变 成节日；开放加盟，用更低成本开出更多的店，推出的小店型最低加盟成本在 5 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for Yum China [3]. Core Views - The report expresses confidence in the company's operational management capabilities and its ability to provide high returns to shareholders through dividends and buybacks [2]. Summary by Sections Performance Overview - In Q3 2024, the company reported revenue of $3.071 billion, a year-on-year increase of 5% (4% excluding currency effects). Operating profit reached $371 million, up 15% year-on-year, with an operating margin of 12.1%, an increase of 1.0 percentage points. Net profit was $297 million, reflecting a 22% year-on-year growth (21% excluding currency effects), and EPS increased by 33% year-on-year (32% excluding currency effects) [3]. Store Expansion and Sales - As of Q3 2024, the total number of stores reached 15,861, a 12% increase year-on-year, with KFC at 11,283 stores (14% increase) and Pizza Hut at 3,606 stores (13% increase). The company is accelerating the expansion of franchise stores, expecting the proportion of franchise stores in new KFC openings to rise to 40%-50% and for Pizza Hut to increase to 20%-30% in the coming years [3]. Same-Store Sales - Same-store sales decreased by 3% in Q3, an improvement from a 4% decline in Q2, recovering to 88.2% of 2019 levels (Q2 was 86.7%). KFC's same-store sales fell by 2% (Q2 was -3%), recovering to 88.1% of 2019 levels (Q2 was 87.7%), while Pizza Hut's same-store sales declined by 6% (Q2 was -8%), recovering to 86.4% of 2019 levels (Q2 was 86.3%) [3]. Profitability - The restaurant profit margin in Q3 was 17.0%, unchanged year-on-year (comparable basis +0.5 percentage points). KFC's restaurant profit margin was 18.3%, down 0.3 percentage points year-on-year (comparable basis +0.3 percentage points), while Pizza Hut's margin was 12.8%, up 0.1 percentage points year-on-year (comparable basis +0.6 percentage points). Factors contributing to margin improvement include enhanced operational efficiency, favorable raw material prices, and reduced management expenses [3]. Shareholder Returns - The company plans to increase shareholder returns from $3 billion to $4.5 billion between 2024 and 2026, a 50% increase from the original target. The buyback and dividend target for 2024 remains at $1.5 billion, with $1.24 billion already returned in the first three quarters [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [6]. Core Insights - The company reported Q3 total revenue of $3.07 billion, a 5% increase year-over-year, with core operating profit rising by 18% to $369 million [2]. - The company plans to increase the proportion of franchise stores, aiming for 40-50% for KFC and 20-30% for Pizza Hut in the coming years [2]. - KFC's same-store sales decline has narrowed, with a 6% increase in system sales at constant exchange rates [2]. - Pizza Hut's same-store sales also showed improvement, with a 2% increase in system sales at constant exchange rates [2]. - The company plans to enhance shareholder returns to $4.5 billion from 2024 to 2026, a 50% increase from previous plans [2]. Financial Performance Summary - Q3 revenue was $3.07 billion, with a 5% increase year-over-year, and core operating profit reached $369 million, an 18% increase [2]. - KFC's same-store sales decreased by 2%, while system sales increased by 6% at constant exchange rates [2]. - Pizza Hut's same-store sales decreased by 6%, with system sales increasing by 2% at constant exchange rates [2]. - The company reported a net increase of 438 stores in Q3, with 145 of those being franchise stores, representing 33% of the total [2]. - The company has a strong cash flow with $3.15 billion in net cash as of the end of Q3 [2]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders is $920 million, $1.01 billion, and $1.09 billion for 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E respectively, representing year-over-year growth rates of 10.8%, 10.4%, and 7.5% [2]. - The expected P/E ratios for 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E are 18.9, 17.5, and 16.2 respectively [2].

热点聚焦 1.十四届全国人大常委会第十二次会议4日上午在北京人民大会堂举行第一次全体会议。赵乐际委员长 主持。会议审议学前教育法草案、文物保护法修订草案等。会议审议了国务院关于提请审议增加地方政 府债务限额置换存量隐性债务的议案。受国务院委托，财政部部长蓝佛安作了说明。全国人大财政经济 委员会副主任委员许宏才作了关于该议案的审查结果报告。 2.截至10月20日，中国上市公司(A股和港股)今年的回购金额首次超过股权融资规模，其中A股市场回购 金额已达1482亿元，港股市场回购金额更高达2021亿元，两者均创下历史新高，合计达到3503亿元。与 此同时，A股市场的股权融资规模为2364亿元，港股市场的股权融资规模为1128亿元，两者合计为3492 亿元。所以，3503亿元超过3492亿元，总的回购金额首次超过了股权融资规模。 3.11月4日，国务院国资委党委召开扩大会议。会议要求，要统筹当前和长远，切实抓好各项政策措施 的落实落地，打好稳增长组合拳，确保中央企业全年改革发展目标任务圆满完成，全力为稳预期、强信 心、促发展作出积极贡献。要紧盯目标狠抓提质增效，落实落细提质增效专项行动，指导企业用好用足 相关支持政策 ...

Summary of Yum! China 3rd Quarter 2024 Earnings Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Yum! China - **Quarter**: 3rd Quarter 2024 Key Industry Insights - **Industry**: Fast Food and Restaurant Sector in China - **Market Dynamics**: The restaurant industry continues to grow, with global players investing aggressively in the Chinese market. There is a trend of rationalizing promotional intensity among competitors, and some aggressive players are slowing down store openings [16][19]. Core Financial Performance - **System Sales Growth**: Grew by 4% year-over-year [2][8]. - **Same-Store Sales Index**: Improved to 97% of the prior year's level [1][8]. - **Delivery Sales**: Achieved double-digit growth for 10 consecutive years, with delivery sales reaching around 40% of the sales mix in Q3 [2][4]. - **Operating Profit**: Grew by 18% year-over-year, with diluted EPS increasing by 32% [2][8]. - **Revenue**: $8.7 billion in the first nine months, with over $1 billion in operating profit [2][5]. - **Net Income**: $297 million, growing 21% year-over-year [10]. Strategic Initiatives - **RGM 2.0 Strategy**: Focus on operational efficiency and innovation, leading to improved margins and customer satisfaction [2][3]. - **Project FreshEye and Project RedEye**: Aimed at enhancing operational efficiency through process evaluation and innovative technology [3][4]. - **Store Expansion**: Opened 438 net new stores in Q3, totaling over 1,200 new stores year-to-date, on track to meet the target of 1,500 to 1,700 new stores for the year [6][12]. Brand Performance KFC - **System Sales Growth**: Increased by 6% year-over-year [8]. - **Same-Store Sales**: Reached 98% of prior year levels with a 1% same-store transaction growth [8]. - **New Product Innovations**: Successful introduction of new items like the original recipe chicken burger and curry gravy chicken [4][5]. - **Franchise Development**: Currently, franchisees represent 12% of KFC's store portfolio, with plans to increase this to 40-50% over the next few years [7][17]. Pizza Hut - **System Sales Growth**: Increased by 2% year-over-year [8]. - **Same-Store Sales**: At 94% of prior year levels, with a 4% same-store transaction growth [8]. - **New Store Formats**: Introduction of the Pizza Hut WOW model, which has shown promising initial results [6][20]. - **Durian Pizza Success**: Durian pizza has become the number one best-selling pizza, with nearly 30 million sold year-to-date [5][6]. Capital Return Strategy - **Shareholder Returns**: Over $1.2 billion returned to shareholders in the first nine months, including $1 billion in share repurchases [10][11]. - **Future Plans**: Aiming to increase capital returns to $4.5 billion from 2024 to 2026, up from the previous target of $3 billion [11][12]. Operational Efficiency and Cost Management - **Cost of Sales**: Remained stable at 31.7%, with favorable commodity prices contributing to cost management [9][10]. - **Labor Costs**: Decreased to 25.1%, with improved operational efficiency offsetting wage increases [9][10]. - **Marketing and Advertising Expenses**: Decreased by 19% year-over-year, reflecting operational efficiency gains [10]. Consumer Trends and Market Outlook - **Consumer Behavior**: Consumers are becoming more rational and value-conscious, seeking good quality and emotional value [3][4]. - **Market Conditions**: Despite recent stimulus policies, no significant changes in market conditions or consumer sentiment have been observed entering Q4 [11][19]. - **Q4 Expectations**: Traditionally a low season, with expectations of smaller sales and profits, but confidence remains in capturing consumer needs through strategic initiatives [11][19]. Conclusion - **Key Messages**: 1. Resiliency and growth strategy highlighted by strong Q3 results. 2. Continued optimism for long-term growth opportunities in China. 3. Commitment to sustainable growth and increased capital returns to shareholders [12].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - System sales grew 4% year over year, with a same-store sales index improving to 97% of the prior year's level [2][8] - Operating profit increased by 18%, and diluted EPS rose by 32% [2][10] - Restaurant margin improved by 50 basis points year over year, while core operating profit margin expanded by 140 basis points [3][8] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - KFC system sales increased by 6% year over year, with same-store sales at 98% of prior year levels [8][10] - Pizza Hut system sales rose by 2% year over year, with same-store sales at 94% of prior year levels [8][10] - Delivery sales grew 18%, accounting for around 40% of the sales mix [3][4] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - KFC and Pizza Hut have increased their market share on aggregator platforms, while over 70% of total sales come from non-aggregator channels [4][10] - The franchisee mix for KFC's new stores increased from 15% in 2023 to 27% year-to-date, with expectations to reach 40-50% in the coming years [7][17] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on operational efficiency and innovation through initiatives like Project Fresh Eye and Project Red Eye [3][10] - The strategy includes widening price ranges and optimizing delivery to capture underserved markets and enhance customer access [2][12] - The company plans to step up capital returns to shareholders, increasing the target from $3 billion to $4.5 billion over the next three years [11][12] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management remains confident in China's midterm and long-term growth opportunities despite current cautious consumer sentiment [11][19] - The company expects Q4 to be traditionally low in sales and profits but aims to maintain focus on operational efficiency and innovation [11][19] - Management acknowledges the competitive landscape but believes their strategies will allow them to outperform peers [16][19] Other Important Information - The company has returned over $4 billion to shareholders since its spinoff, with more than $1.2 billion returned in the first nine months of the year [10][11] - K-Coffee has seen significant growth, with nearly 200 million cups sold in the first nine months, indicating strong potential for future expansion [5][23] Q&A Session Summary Question: Long-term focus on same-store sales vs. system sales - Management emphasizes the importance of both system sales and same-store sales, with a focus on transaction growth as a key driver for the business [13][14] Question: KFC pricing strategy and competition - Management notes that KFC's pricing strategy aims for stability, with slight adjustments based on market conditions and competition [16] Question: Franchising model and capital expenditure - The company is ready to increase the percentage of franchisee stores, which will help lower capital expenditure in the long term [17] Question: Q4 performance expectations - Management anticipates some top-line pressure in Q4 but remains confident in their ability to capture consumer needs and protect margins [19][20] Question: Food safety and cost control - The company prioritizes food safety and compliance, ensuring that quality is not compromised for cost control [22] Question: K-Coffee incremental benefits - K-Coffee has shown a single-digit sales uplift and produces incremental profit due to its unique operating model [23] Question: Pizza Hut store format performance - The Pizza Hut Valve store format is still in its early stages, with ongoing improvements in operational efficiency expected to enhance sales and profitability [24]