管理层预期2025年新开1600至1800家门店，肯德基和必胜客的净开店特许经营组合比例将分别逐步提升 至40%—50%和20%—30%。 证券时报网讯，麦格理报告指出，百胜中国农历新年同店销售增长略显正面，竞争趋于理性，利润率扩 大。 校对：王锦程 麦格理将百胜中国目标价上调至428港元，维持"跑赢大市"评级。 ...

Financial Performance - Total revenue for 2024 reached $11 billion, with a net addition of 1,751 stores[3] - Operating profit for Q4 increased by 36% to $151 million, with an operating profit margin of 5.8%, up 140 basis points year-over-year[3][6] - Same-store sales index improved to 99% of last year's level, marking the eighth consecutive quarter of same-store transaction growth[3][7] - Digital order revenue reached $9.6 billion, accounting for approximately 90% of the company's restaurant revenue[3] - The company reported operating profit of $192 million in Q4 2024, a 15% increase year-over-year, while core operating profit rose by 18%[11] - For the full year 2024, total revenue reached $8.51 billion, a 3% increase compared to $8.24 billion in 2023[11] - The company reported a net profit of $911 million for the year, up 10% from $827 million in 2023[23] - Total revenue for the quarter ended December 31, 2024, was $2,595 million, a 4% increase from $2,493 million in 2023[23] - Net profit attributable to Yum China Holdings, Inc. was $115 million, an 18% increase from $97 million in the same quarter of 2023[23] - For the full year 2024, total revenue reached $11,303 million, a 3% increase from $10,978 million in 2023[23] Shareholder Returns - The company returned $1.5 billion to shareholders in 2024, including $248 million in cash dividends and $1.24 billion in stock buybacks[3][7] - The company plans to increase cash dividends by 50% and aims to return $4.5 billion to shareholders from 2024 to 2026[7] - The company plans to return $3 billion to shareholders between 2025 and 2026, building on the $1.5 billion returned in 2024[17] - The company announced a 50% increase in cash dividends to $0.24 per share, payable on March 27, 2025[10] Store Expansion - The total number of stores increased by 12% to 16,395, with 534 new stores added in Q4[3][6] - The company is targeting 20,000 stores by 2026, leveraging franchisees to expand into previously hard-to-reach areas[7] - The number of KFC restaurants increased by 1,352 in 2024, reaching a total of 11,648 locations, marking a 13% growth[12] - For the fiscal year 2024, Pizza Hut added 412 new stores, with a total of 3,724 stores by year-end[17] - The company expects to add approximately 1,600 to 1,800 new stores in fiscal year 2025, with capital expenditures between $700 million and $800 million[17] Profitability Metrics - Core operating profit grew by 12% to $1.2 billion for the full year[3] - Adjusted diluted earnings per share for 2024 was $2.33, an 18% increase from $1.97 in 2023[8] - The operating profit margin for KFC was 9.9% in Q4 2024, reflecting a 100 basis point increase year-over-year[12] - The restaurant profit margin for the quarter was 9.3%, with a year-over-year increase of 220 basis points after adjusting for comparable items[17] - The company achieved a restaurant profit margin of 12.0% for the fiscal year, with a year-over-year increase of 60 basis points after adjustments[17] - The restaurant profit margin for KFC was 16.9%, while Pizza Hut's was 12.0%, leading to an overall margin of 15.7%[55] Membership and Sales - Membership for KFC and Pizza Hut exceeded 525 million, with member sales accounting for 65% of total system sales[3] - System sales increased by 5% in Q4 2024, with same-store sales reaching 99% of the previous year's level, up from 98% in Q3[12] - Pizza Hut's system sales increased by 3% year-over-year, with same-store sales reaching 98% of last year's level, up from 94% in Q3[17] Financial Adjustments and Metrics - The company believes that presenting core operating profit enhances comparability of past operating performance and related trends[42] - The company has made adjustments to financial metrics to exclude special items and items affecting comparability, providing additional information for investors[43] - The company emphasizes that adjusted financial metrics are not intended to replace GAAP financial performance but provide additional insights for performance comparison[40] Tax and Expenses - The effective tax rate for the quarter was 27.6%, an increase of 3.4 percentage points from 24.2% in the previous year[23] - The company’s total restaurant expenses amounted to $2,133 million for the quarter, with KFC's expenses at $1,668 million and Pizza Hut's at $452 million[50] - Company restaurant expenses totaled $2,090 million, with KFC at $1,621 million and Pizza Hut at $449 million[52] Other Financial Highlights - The company reported a net impairment charge of $12 million for closed stores[52] - The company incurred a net loss of $15 million from all other segments, impacting overall profitability[55] - The company received rental reductions and government subsidies due to the impact of COVID-19, which were recognized as reductions in restaurant expenses[15]

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains an Overweight (OW) rating for China, Japan, Indonesia, and the Philippines, while it is Market Weight (MW) for India, Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, and Malaysia, and Underweight (UW) for Australia, Hong Kong, and Thailand [1] - Utilities are upgraded to Overweight (OW), while staples are downgraded to Market Weight (MW) [1] Core Views - The Asia-Pacific region faces headwinds at the start of 2025, including mixed activity data, higher US 10-year yields, a stronger dollar, potential US tariffs, and elevated economic policy uncertainty [1] - Moderate returns are expected in 2025, driven by policy support, resilience, and core fundamentals [1] - The MXAPJ index target is trimmed to 620 from 630, implying a 9% USD return [1] - Earnings delivery and shareholder yield are key screening criteria, alongside structural themes like AI beneficiaries and defense spending [1] China Strategy - Chinese equities are expected to rebound after a three-year bad streak, with policy support providing a floor for the market [1] - Fiscal policy delivery is crucial for driving equity gains in 2025 [1] - Deflation is detrimental to equity returns, and China's equity market has become more investable for domestic investors [1] - ETFs have seen impressive growth, and RMB 3 trillion has been returned to shareholders [1] Asia Macro - US tariffs are a major external uncertainty for 2025, with China and Vietnam at significant risk [5] - Interest rate cuts are expected across most Asian economies, except Japan, where rate hikes are anticipated [5] - China's housing market is not expected to bottom out, and fiscal policy is expected to ease with a tilt towards consumption-oriented policies [5] Company-Specific Insights TSMC - TSMC is expected to see solid revenue growth of 26.8% YoY in 2025, driven by strong demand for leading-edge nodes, particularly AI [6] - A mid-high single-digit price hike for 3nm/5nm nodes and a 10%+ price hike for CoWoS are expected, with gross margins projected to grow to 59.3% in 2025 [6] - The 12-month target price is raised to NT$1,355 from NT$1,320 [6] Yum China - Yum China is expected to report 4.4% YoY sales growth, 4.6% restaurant profits growth, and 20.4% operating profits growth in 4Q24 [6] - SSSG for KFC and Pizza Hut is expected at -1% and -3% YoY, respectively, with 433 net store openings in 4Q24 [6] - The 12-month target price is lowered to US$58/HK$452 [6] Tencent - Tencent's platform leadership and generative AI strategies are highlighted, with a focus on critical resources and multi-strategies for AI opportunities [6] - The 12-month target price is set at HK$542 [6] GCPL - GCPL is expected to recover from cyclical headwinds, with a gradual recovery in home insecticides and soap volumes starting in 4QFY25 [8] - The 12-month target price is set at Rs1,370 [8] Japan Chemicals - Toray and Kuraray are top picks for 2025, with Toray expected to see 23% annual business profit growth and Kuraray expected to see a 21% CAGR in operating profit [8] - The 12-month target price for Toray is raised to ¥1,210, and for Kuraray to ¥2,900 [8] Kotak Mahindra Bank - The bank faces near-term challenges due to the resignation of its CTO, with investor focus on resolving tech-related issues [9] - The 12-month target price is set at Rs2,286 [9] Korea Views - Korea's caretaker government has released economic policy measures for 2025, aiming to stabilize financial markets and limit downside risks [11] - A gradual 25bp rate cut is expected in each of Q1, Q2, and Q3, with a risk of more rapid easing if domestic activity weakens [11] US Strategy - The S&P 500 is expected to rise by 11% to 6500 in 2025, driven by EPS growth [13] - Earnings growth is expected to be 11% in 2025 and 7% in 2026, with the forward P/E multiple remaining at 21.5x [13] Global FX & Rates - The US dollar is expected to remain strong in 2025, driven by tariff risks and divergent growth prospects [13] - The US yield curve is expected to steepen, with risks to higher yields in longer maturities [15]

Investment Rating - Maintains a "Buy" rating with a target price of HKD 472.48 / USD 60.95 [1][6] Core Views - Yum China (YUMC) is the largest restaurant operator in China by sales, demonstrating resilience across multiple economic cycles and accelerating its expansion into the 10,000-store era [1] - The company's growth momentum is expected to strengthen with the extension of product offerings, breakthroughs in new store formats like K Coffee and Pizza Hut WOW stores, and improved cost-effectiveness [1] - The 4Q24-1Q25 period is critical for validating same-store sales resilience and marks the beginning of the second 10,000-store target [1] - Long-term growth is supported by strong corporate governance, ample cash flow, and high shareholder returns (16.5% annualized shareholder return in 9M24) [1] Same-Store Sales Resilience - Same-store sales resilience is driven by stable demand and high customer loyalty, with strategies including cost-effective products, upgraded product combinations, and reduced delivery fees [3] - Delivery sales accounted for 40% of total sales in 3Q24, up 5 percentage points year-over-year [3] - Membership sales contributed 65% of system-wide sales, with membership numbers exceeding 510 million, a 113% increase since 2019 [3] Restaurant Profitability - Cost structure optimization is key to maintaining restaurant-level profitability, with measures including improved bargaining power for raw materials, increased store manager efficiency, and optimized rental structures [3] - Sensitivity analysis shows that a 5% increase in daily sales could boost KFC and Pizza Hut store profits by 14% and 20%, respectively, with profit margins of 19.1% and 14.9%, higher than historical averages [3] Expansion Strategy - Yum China's next 10,000-store growth will come from下沉 markets,加密 existing locations, and轻资产 models [3] - KFC and Pizza Hut have significant expansion potential, with long-term store targets of over 20,000 and 5,000 stores, respectively [3] - The company is increasing加盟店比例 to leverage regional resources and accelerate expansion [3] Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from USD 11,289 million in 2024E to USD 13,147 million in 2026E, with net income increasing from USD 901.16 million to USD 1,070 million over the same period [5] - EPS is expected to rise from USD 2.30 in 2024E to USD 3.04 in 2026E, with ROE remaining stable around 13% [5] Valuation and Shareholder Returns - The target price is based on a 23x PE multiple for 2025, reflecting confidence in the company's growth trajectory [4] - Yum China has a strong track record of shareholder returns, with a 16.5% annualized return in 9M24 and plans to return USD 4.5 billion to shareholders from 2024-2026 [1][29] Market Position and Competitive Advantage - Yum China benefits from its先发优势 in下沉 markets and its ability to leverage scale effects to maintain profitability [19] - The company's strong brand,供应链 capabilities, and digital transformation efforts position it well for long-term growth [1][19]

Group 1 - The second China International Supply Chain Promotion Expo (referred to as "Chain Expo") opened in Beijing on November 26 [1] - Yum China, listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, participated in this year's Chain Expo and will hold a global supplier recruitment conference during the event [2] - Yum China currently has over 800 core suppliers across various categories including food ingredients, beverages, packaging materials, construction, warehousing, and transportation [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Yum China (09987.HK) [4] Core Views - The company reported Q3 2024 financial results that exceeded expectations, with total revenue reaching $3.07 billion, a year-on-year increase of 5%, marking the highest quarterly revenue in history [2] - The company plans to increase shareholder returns to $4.5 billion over the next three years, up from $3 billion, reflecting confidence in future performance [2] Financial Performance - Q3 2024 total revenue was $3.07 billion, with operating profit at $371 million, representing a year-on-year increase of 15% [2] - Core operating profit rose 18% year-on-year to $369 million [2] - The total number of stores reached 15,861, with net additions of 438 stores in Q3 2024 [2] - System sales increased by 4% year-on-year, driven by a 7% contribution from net new stores [2] Same-Store Sales and Profitability - Same-store sales continued to decline, with Q3 2024 showing a decrease of 3% for the overall company, 2% for KFC, and 6% for Pizza Hut [2] - Restaurant profit margin for Q3 2024 was 17.0%, stable compared to the previous year, with a comparable basis showing a 0.5 percentage point increase [2] Strategic Initiatives - The company optimized its delivery strategy, resulting in an 18% year-on-year increase in delivery sales, which now account for 40% of restaurant revenue [2] - Membership numbers exceeded 510 million, with member sales contributing to 64% of system sales [2] - The company is focusing on expanding its franchise model, with expectations that the proportion of franchise stores will increase to 40%-50% for KFC and 20%-30% for Pizza Hut in the coming years [2] Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are $11.19 billion, $12.18 billion, and $13.14 billion, respectively, with net profit estimates of $876 million, $947 million, and $1.072 billion [3][12] - The current price-to-earnings ratio is projected to be 21x, 19x, and 17x for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [2][3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Yum China (9987 HK) [3] Core Views - Yum China's Q3 2024 revenue reached $3 07 billion, up 5% YoY (or 4% at constant exchange rates), with net profit attributable to shareholders increasing by 22% YoY (or 21% at constant exchange rates) [1] - The company's same-store sales decline narrowed sequentially, with KFC and Pizza Hut showing improvements in customer traffic and pricing strategies [1][12] - Yum China has accelerated its store expansion, adding 1 217 net new stores in the first three quarters of 2024, with Q3 alone adding 438 stores [2][14] - The company has raised its shareholder return plan for 2024-2026 from $3 billion to $4 5 billion, reflecting a 50% increase [2][20] Store Operations and Efficiency - Yum China's restaurant-level margin remained stable at 17 0% in Q3 2024, with KFC and Pizza Hut margins at 18 3% and 12 8%, respectively [2][18] - The company has improved operational efficiency, with salary and employee benefits as a percentage of restaurant revenue decreasing by 0 2 percentage points YoY [2] - Yum China is focusing on cost optimization, with rent and other costs as a percentage of restaurant revenue decreasing by 0 4 percentage points YoY [2] Strategic Transformation - Yum China is increasing the proportion of franchised stores, with KFC and Pizza Hut aiming for 40%-50% and 20%-30% of new stores to be franchised, respectively [3][23] - The company has introduced new store models, including KFC Town Mini stores and Pizza Hut WOW stores, which have lower investment thresholds and better unit economics [3][29] - K Coffee, a high-value coffee brand, has expanded rapidly from 100 stores in March to approximately 500 stores, with plans to reach 600 stores by the end of 2024 [3][32] Financial Projections - The report raises Yum China's net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 to $895 million, $957 million, and $1 051 billion, respectively, reflecting upward revisions of 4%, 3%, and 2% [3] - The current stock price implies a forward P/E ratio of 21x, 19x, and 18x for 2024-2026, respectively [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of $8.708 billion for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 3% [4] - Adjusted net profit for the same period was $796 million, up 8% year-on-year [4] - In Q3 2024, revenue reached $3.071 billion, a 5% increase year-on-year, with adjusted net profit growing by 20% to $297 million [4] - The diluted EPS for Q3 2024 was $0.77, reflecting a 33% increase compared to the previous year [4] Revenue and Profitability - The company’s same-store sales improved sequentially, with overall sales growth of 4%, 6% for KFC, and 2% for Pizza Hut [4] - The same-store sales declined by 3%, 2%, and 6% for overall, KFC, and Pizza Hut respectively, indicating a recovery to approximately 88% of 2019 levels, an improvement of about 1 percentage point from Q2 [4] - KFC and Pizza Hut's order volumes increased by 1% and 4%, while average transaction prices decreased by 3% and 9% respectively [4] Store Expansion and Performance - As of Q3 2024, the total number of restaurants reached 15,861, with net additions of 1,189 stores in the first three quarters [4] - KFC had 11,283 stores, with net additions of 352 in Q3, while Pizza Hut had 3,606 stores, with 102 net additions [4] - The proportion of new stores in lower-tier cities was 58% for KFC and 60% for Pizza Hut, with franchise stores accounting for 27% and 7% respectively [4] Digitalization and Shareholder Returns - The company is advancing digitalization and delivery services, with over 510 million combined members for KFC and Pizza Hut, and member sales accounting for 64% of total sales [4] - Digital orders contributed $2.61 billion, representing 90% of restaurant revenue [4] - Delivery sales grew by 18% year-on-year, making up approximately 40% of restaurant revenue [4] - The shareholder return plan has been increased by 50%, targeting $4.5 billion from 2024 to 2026 [4] Cost Control and Efficiency - The company has successfully reduced costs, with employee costs, property rents, and other operating expenses decreasing as a percentage of restaurant revenue [4] - The cost of materials and consumables accounted for 31.7% of restaurant revenue, up 0.6 percentage points year-on-year [4] - Employee costs represented 25.1% of restaurant revenue, down 0.2 percentage points year-on-year [4] Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to achieve net profits of $901 million, $963 million, and $1.048 billion for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with growth rates of 8.9%, 6.9%, and 8.9% [4] - The estimated reasonable value range for the stock is between HKD 354.0 and HKD 432.7 per share based on a PE ratio of 18-22 times for 2025 [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive long-term outlook based on its fundamentals and growth strategies [2][3]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve revenue growth of 4.1%, 8.4%, and 8.2% for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with projected revenues of $11.43 billion, $12.38 billion, and $13.40 billion [3][4]. - Net profit is forecasted to grow by 10.2%, 8.5%, and 8.3% over the same period, reaching $911 million, $988 million, and $1.07 billion [3][4]. - The company has increased its dividend and share buyback program, raising the total planned amount from $3 billion to $4.5 billion, which represents 23% of its current market capitalization [3][4]. - The restaurant operating profit margins for KFC and Pizza Hut were reported at 18.3% and 12.8%, respectively, showing resilience in profitability [3][4]. - The company opened 438 new stores in Q3 2024, bringing the total to 15,861, with KFC and Pizza Hut showing year-on-year growth of 14% and 13% in store numbers [3][4]. Financial Summary - For the fiscal year 2023, the company reported revenues of $10.98 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 14.7% [4][7]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are $2.36, $2.63, and $2.92, respectively [3][4]. - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to be 12.8% in 2023, increasing to 13.5% in 2024 before slightly declining in subsequent years [7][4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of 446.3 HKD, indicating a potential upside of 16% from the current stock price of 387.8 HKD [1][2][3]. Core Insights - The company demonstrated resilience with a 5% year-over-year increase in total revenue to 3.07 billion USD in Q3, alongside a 4% increase in system sales. Core operating profit rose by 18%, and net profit increased by 22% to 297 million USD [2][3]. - The company has adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2024, 2025, and 2026 to 950 million, 980 million, and 1.09 billion USD respectively, with corresponding EPS estimates of 17.8, 18.3, and 20.5 HKD [2][3]. - The company has expanded its store count to 15,900, with a net addition of 438 stores in Q3, reflecting a 12.5% year-over-year growth [3]. Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 9.57 billion USD, with a growth rate of 14.72% expected in 2024, followed by 2.94% in 2025 and 8.87% in 2026 [5][14]. - Net profit for 2023 is estimated at 478 million USD, with a significant recovery projected in subsequent years, reaching 901 million USD in 2024 and 948 million USD in 2025 [5][14]. - The company maintains a gross margin of approximately 70%, with a net profit margin expected to stabilize around 8% in the coming years [5][15]. Valuation Analysis - The valuation methods employed include comparable company analysis and discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis, with a target price of 446.3 HKD derived from these methods, reflecting a 16.9% upside potential [7][9]. - The average PE ratio for comparable companies is projected at 18.8x for 2025, while the company is assigned a PE of 25x due to its market position and growth potential [7][9]. - The DCF analysis estimates a reasonable market value of 167.4 billion HKD, corresponding to a stock price of 434.3 HKD [7][11].