Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the coal industry [10] Core Viewpoints - The report discusses the potential impact of rising oil prices on coal prices and the coal sector, suggesting that geopolitical conflicts can lead to synchronized price increases for oil and coal, but this requires substantial and sustained effects on oil supply and demand [2][7] - The current coal prices are expected to remain stable, influenced by seasonal factors such as the rainy season affecting power plant inventory replenishment and a reduction in production from some small private coal mines [6][18] - Historical analysis indicates that past geopolitical conflicts have not consistently led to increases in coal prices, emphasizing the need for sustained oil supply disruptions for a similar effect on coal [8][9] Summary by Sections Weekly Tracking Summary - The coal index (Yangtze) decreased by 0.40%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.15 percentage points, ranking 16th out of 32 industries [18] - As of June 13, the market price for Qinhuangdao power coal was 609 RMB/ton, unchanged from the previous week [6][18] Supply and Demand Situation - The daily coal consumption across 25 provinces was 4.756 million tons, a decrease of 2.0% week-on-week and 6.7% year-on-year [34] - The total coal inventory in power plants was 119 million tons, with an available days supply of 24.9 days, reflecting a slight increase [34] Price Situation - The report notes that the price of main coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1230 RMB/ton, down 40 RMB/ton from the previous week [6][18] - The report highlights that the international coal prices have shown fluctuations, with Australian 5500 kcal FOB prices at 68.25 USD/ton, down 0.8 USD/ton week-on-week [18][36] Company Performance - The report identifies top-performing coal companies for the week, including Anyuan Coal Industry (up 11.33%) and Yunnan Coal Energy (up 9.82%) [28][31] - Conversely, companies like Dayou Energy and Pingmei Shenma Coal fell by 4.15% and 3.67%, respectively [28][31] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends marginal allocation to leading companies with stable profits such as China Coal Energy and Shenhua Energy, as well as growth-oriented companies like Electric Power Investment Energy and New Energy [9]

行 业 及 产 业 煤炭/ 煤炭开采 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 相关研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 严天鹏 A0230524090004 yantp@swsresearch.com 闫海 A0230519010004 yanhai@swsresearch.com 施佳瑜 A0230521040004 shijy@swsresearch.com 研究支持 施佳瑜 A0230521040004 shijy@swsresearch.com 联系人 施佳瑜 (8621)23297818× shijy@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 2025 年 06 月 15 日 库存逐步去化，国际油价上涨，煤 价有望受益上涨 看好 ——煤炭行业周报（2025.6.6-2025.6.13） 本期投资提示： ⚫ 动力煤方面，截至 6 月 13 日，据中国煤炭市场网，秦皇岛港口 Q4500 动力煤现货价收 报 474 元/吨，环比上升 0.21%；Q5000、Q5500 动力煤现货价收报 528 元/吨，609 元/ 吨，环比均持平。供给端，据中国煤炭市场网，截至 6 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the coal mining industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The supply of thermal coal is tightening in major production areas, with expectations for demand to rebound during the peak season [1][4] - The report highlights a stable port coal price of 609 RMB/ton as of June 13, 2025, with a decrease in production capacity utilization in the Sanxi region by 2.48 percentage points due to frequent safety and environmental inspections [4][13] - The report emphasizes the resilience of high-calorific imported coal prices, while low-calorific coal has seen a slight recovery in cost-effectiveness [4][13] Summary by Sections Thermal Coal - Port inventory continues to decrease, with a week-on-week decline of 64.10 thousand tons in northern ports [30] - Daily coal consumption in coastal and inland power plants shows mixed trends, with coastal consumption increasing by 3.7 thousand tons and inland decreasing by 7.6 thousand tons [22][30] - The report anticipates a reduction in hydropower generation due to increased outflow from the Three Gorges Dam, which may lead to a recovery in thermal power demand [13][30] Coking Coal - Supply of coking coal has contracted, with a week-on-week decrease in production capacity utilization by 0.86 percentage points [5][40] - Despite a slight decrease in supply, demand remains weak, leading to an increase in inventory levels at coking coal production enterprises by 16.81 thousand tons [6][40] - The report indicates that coking coal prices are under pressure due to high inventory levels and weak demand [6][41] Coking Coke - Coking coke prices have undergone three rounds of reductions, impacting profit margins for coking enterprises [51] - The report notes a decrease in production rates at coking plants, with a utilization rate of 75.77% [51][56] - Coking coke inventory continues to rise, although the rate of increase has slowed [51][66] Key Companies and Profit Forecasts - The report identifies key companies to watch, including China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and Yanzhou Coal, with a focus on their strong cash flow and high asset quality [7][8] - The report provides earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2024A, 2025E, and 2026E for various companies, indicating a generally positive outlook for the sector [8]

Group 1 - The coal mining sector is experiencing a slight decline, with the CITIC coal index at 3,236.71 points, down 0.34%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.09 percentage points [2][85] - The report highlights a significant business transformation opportunity for Anyuan Coal Industry due to its change in controlling shareholder to Jiangxi Tungsten Holdings, which may enhance the company's non-coal resource integration [2] Group 2 - In the coking coal market, prices are under pressure due to a combination of weak demand from steel companies and high inventory levels, with the average price for main coking coal reported at 1,070 CNY/ton [42][43] - The supply side is tightening slightly, but overall demand remains weak, leading to a continued accumulation of inventory in the coking coal sector [42][48] - The report emphasizes that the future performance of coking coal prices will depend on several factors, including domestic production cuts due to losses, significant disruptions in coking coal imports, and the implementation of strong stimulus policies [8][9] Group 3 - The thermal coal market is stable, with prices for thermal coal at the North Port reported at 618 CNY/ton, showing no change week-on-week [7][38] - The report notes that while supply is slightly tightening due to environmental inspections and production cuts, overall demand remains subdued, leading to limited price increases [19][39] - The report suggests that the coal market is currently buyer-driven, with procurement strategies significantly influencing coal price movements [7][39] Group 4 - The report identifies key investment targets in the coal sector, recommending companies such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and Xinji Energy, among others, based on their performance and potential for recovery [12][11] - The focus is on companies that are expected to benefit from the ongoing structural changes in the coal industry, particularly those with strong financial performance and operational resilience [12][11]

供给收缩渐显，静待需求驱动 [Table_ReportTime] 2025 年 6 月 15 日 证券研究报告 行业研究-周报 [Table_ReportType] 行业周报 | [Table_StockAndRank] 煤炭开采 | | | --- | --- | | 投资评级 | 看好 | | 上次评级 | 看好 | 左前明：能源行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500518070001 联系电话：010-83326712 邮箱：zuoqianming@cindasc.com 高升：煤炭钢铁行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500524100002 邮箱：gaosheng@cindasc.com 李睿：煤炭行业分析师 执业编号：S1500525040002 邮箱：lirui@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDASECURITIESCO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲 127 号 金隅大厦 B 座 邮编：100031 [Table_Title] 供给收缩渐显，静待需求驱动 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 6 月 15 日 本期内容提要: [Table_Summary] ...

从中证申万煤炭指数持仓的市场板块来看，上海证券交易所占比85.39%、深圳证券交易所占比 14.61%。 从中证申万煤炭指数持仓样本的行业来看，能源占比92.38%、原材料占比6.07%、工业占比1.55%。 据了解，中证申万煤炭指数从申万煤炭开采行业中选取50只上市公司证券作为指数样本，以反映煤炭开 采行业上市公司证券的整体表现。该指数以2004年12月31日为基日，以1000.0点为基点。 从指数持仓来看，中证申万煤炭指数十大权重分别为：中国神华（16.64%）、陕西煤业（14.54%）、 永泰能源（8.28%）、兖矿能源（6.35%）、电投能源（6.07%）、中煤能源（5.3%）、山西焦煤 （5.08%）、淮北矿业（3.79%）、潞安环能（3.56%）、华阳股份（3.35%）。 资料显示，指数样本每半年调整一次，样本调整实施时间分别为每年6月和12月的第二个星期五的下一 交易日。权重因子随样本定期调整而调整，调整时间与指数样本定期调整实施时间相同。在下一个定期 调整日前，权重因子一般固定不变。特殊情况下将对指数进行临时调整。当样本退市时，将其从指数样 本中剔除。样本公司发生收购、合并、分拆等情形的处理， ...

内容概要：近年来，济宁市深入实施国有企业改革深化提升行动，以实体经济为根基、制造业发展为核 心，全力推进工业经济"头号工程"。通过传统产业转型升级、新兴产业培育壮大、未来产业前瞻布 局"三线并进"，以及数字化赋能、智能化改造、绿色化转型"三化协同"的发展路径，有效培育新质生产 力，推动国有企业高质量发展取得显著成效。济宁市创新构建"232"产业集群发展框架，形成两千亿级 （新能源、高端装备）、千亿级（高端化工、新材料、食品）和五百亿级（新一代信息技术、医药）的 梯度产业体系，实现产业结构的优化升级和协同发展。 上市企业：兖矿能源（600188.SH）、山推股份（000680.SZ）、浪潮信息（000977.SZ）、鲁抗医药 （600789.SH） 相关企业：山东益大新材料股份有限公司、华春新能源股份有限公司、山东纳鑫新能源有限公司、邹城 市正昇新能源开发有限公司、长城重工机械（山东）有限公司、小松机械制造（山东）有限公司、山东 瑞力斯通轨道装备制造有限公司、山东晨阳新型碳材料股份有限公司、山东瑞城宇航碳材料有限公司、 山东恒圣石墨科技有限公司、山东晶导微电子股份有限公司、济宁市海富电子科技有限公司、山东神华 ...

兖矿能源集团股份有限公司 2024年年度末期权益分派实施公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗 漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： A 股每股现金红利人民币 0.54元（含税）。 相关日期 | 股权登记日 | 最后交易日 | 除权（息）日 | | 现金红利发放日 | 股份类别 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | A 股 2025/6/17 － | | | 2025/6/18 | 2025/6/18 | | H 股股东的现金红利派发不适用本公告。 股票代码：600188 股票简称：兖矿能源 公告编号：临 2025-044 差异化分红送转： 否 。 一、通过分配方案的股东会届次和日期 本次利润分配方案经兖矿能源集团股份有限公司（"兖矿能源""公司"）2025 年 5 月 30 日召开的2024年度股东周年大会审议通过。 二、分配方案 截至股权登记日下午上海证券交易所收市后，在中国证券登记结算有限责任公司上海分 公司（以下简称"中国结算上海分公司"）登记在册的本公司全体股东。 1 公司不存在 ...

兖矿能源集团股份有限公司 股票代码：600188 股票简称：兖矿能源 公告编号：临 2025-044 2024年年度末期权益分派实施公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗 漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： A 股每股现金红利人民币 0.54元（含税）。 相关日期 | 股权登记日 | 最后交易日 | 除权（息）日 | | 现金红利发放日 | 股份类别 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | A 股 2025/6/17 － | | | 2025/6/18 | 2025/6/18 | | H 股股东的现金红利派发不适用本公告。 差异化分红送转： 否 。 一、通过分配方案的股东会届次和日期 本次利润分配方案经兖矿能源集团股份有限公司（"兖矿能源""公司"）2025 年 5 月 30 日召开的2024年度股东周年大会审议通过。 二、分配方案 截至股权登记日下午上海证券交易所收市后，在中国证券登记结算有限责任公司上海分 公司（以下简称"中国结算上海分公司"）登记在册的本公司全体股东。 1 公司不存在 ...

■谢若琳 6月5日，上交所召开高分红重回报暨上市公司价值提升座谈会，就进一步提升高分红、高股息率上市公 司估值进行深入交流探讨，充分听取意见建议。 上市公司现金分红是资本市场的基础性制度之一，也是保护投资者权益、强化股东回报的重要体现。积 极分红，不仅能确保各类投资者共享公司发展成果，提高公司估值，长期来看也有助于持续提升A股投 资价值，稳定市场情绪，促进资本市场健康稳定发展。 以上市公司兖矿能源为例，与上市之初相比，该公司收入和利润分别增长31倍、18倍，分红比例则由 35%提升至60%。这些数字背后，是一条清晰的轨迹——公司高速发展的同时保障股东回报同步增长。 新"国九条"发布以来，政策持续引导上市公司提升回报投资者意识、加大现金分红力度。中上协最新数 据显示，有3751家上市公司公布或实施2024年经营年度现金分红方案，分红总额近2.4万亿元，创历史 新高。 需要指出的是，尽管A股分红生态在政策推动下持续改善，但相对成熟市场来说，仍有提升空间：一是 不同行业分红差距大，比如银行业上市公司现金分红的额度显著领先其他行业；二是"铁公鸡"现象仍然 存在，部分公司连续多年盈利却不履行分红承诺；三是主动分红意识有 ...