2026年1月29日 1月28日标的指数成份股涨跌幅TOP20 标普中国 A 股红利机会指数(CSPSADRP) | 序号 | 代码 | 简称 | 車日涨幅 | 年内涨幅 | 股息率(近12个 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | (%) | (%) | 月) (%) | | 1 | 600916.SH | 中国黄金 | 10.04 | 50.55 | 3.14 | | 2 | 605599 SH | 菜自股份 | 9.98 | 32.62 | 3.65 | | 3 | 002532.SZ | 天山铝业 | 9.98 | 28.06 | 2.11 | | 4 | 600219.SH | 南山铝业 | 9.94 | 45.91 | 5.46 | | 5 | 000933.SZ | 神火股份 | 9.56 | 30.62 | 1.52 | | 6 | 600938.SH | 甲国海道 | 6.98 | 17.86 | 3.82 | | 7 | 603279.SH | 景津装备 | 5.43 | 13.93 | 4.94 | | 8 | 600096.SH ...

截至发稿，赵宗庭累计任职时间8年289天，现任基金资产总规模3569.66亿元，任职期间最佳基金回报 122.37%， 任职期间最差基金回报-32.63%。 1月28日，兖矿能源涨5.03%，截至发稿，报14.61元/股，成交9.27亿元，换手率1.10%，总市值1466.48 亿元。 声明：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 本文基于第三方数据库自动发布，任何在本文出现的信息（包括但 不限于个股、评论、预测、图表、指标、理论、任何形式的表述等）均只作为参考，不构成个人投资建 议。受限于第三方数据库质量等问题，我们无法对数据的真实性及完整性进行分辨或核验，因此本文内 容可能出现不准确、不完整、误导性的内容或信息，具体以公司公告为准。如有疑问，请联系 biz@staff.sina.com.cn。 资料显示，兖矿能源集团股份有限公司位于山东省邹城市凫山南路949号，成立日期1997年9月25日，上 市日期1998年7月1日，公司主营业务涉及煤炭开采、洗选加工、销售和煤炭铁路运输,煤化工及电力业 务等。主营业务收入构成为：煤炭业务58.09%，煤化工及电力22.48%，非煤炭贸易及物流12.29%，未 分配项目5.47%，矿 ...

浙商证券（601878）指出，展望"十五五"，全球焦煤供弱需强，供需格局逆转，产量下降，需求向上， 价格有望抬升，叠加成本下行，预计业绩显著改善；焦煤产能刚性，若价格上涨供给难增，价格弹性较 大。年初至今，焦煤价格较2025年一季度均价高269元/吨，焦煤企业成本逐步下行至低位，预计一季度 业绩显著改善。优质主焦煤公司单位产品净利润远低于动力煤公司，未体现焦煤资源的稀缺性。 煤炭股午后走强，截至发稿，中国秦发(00866)涨11.68%，报4.11港元；力量发展(01277)涨8.18%，报 1.72港元；兖矿能源（600188）(01171)涨4.25%，报11.52港元；中国神华（601088）(01088)涨3.62%， 报43.54港元；中煤能源（601898）(01898)涨3.27%，报11.38港元。 华源证券发布研报称，2023年以来，煤价呈现季度阶梯性中枢下行走势，2025Q3是除2023Q4之外，少 有的煤炭均价环比回升(基于秦港5500大卡动力煤平仓价)财报季，在煤价中枢上行背景下，预计2025Q4 板块有望实现业绩延续环比回升，2026Q1煤炭板块有望走出春季行情。供需上，2026年1 ...

智通财经APP获悉，华源证券发布研报称，25Q3煤炭均价环比回升(基于秦港5500大卡动力煤平仓价)财 报季，在煤价中枢上行背景下，预计2025Q4板块有望实现业绩延续环比回升，2026Q1煤炭板块有望走 出春季行情。2026年1月初，部分省份推动煤炭部分保供产能退出，本轮保供产能退出政策在2025年9月 1日陕西省发改委文件中已有体现，也符合市场此前预测，若全国铺开，预计退出规模较大。 华源证券主要观点如下： 此次"查超产"在数量上严格要求全年不能超公告产能，核查口径为原煤产量，且落实到具体的生产煤 矿，对行业2025年下半年产量产生一定程度影响。上市煤企Q4商品煤产量环比涨跌互现，基于目前已 公告的月度经营数据，头部上市煤企中，中国神华及中煤能源Q4产量环比分别-5.0%、-2.1%，陕西煤 业及兖矿能源Q4产量环比+3.6%、+1.0%。考虑Q4煤价反弹或带来较为明显的单位毛利回升，产量对业 绩的实际影响或较为有限。 成本控制仍为主旋律，但煤价回升及年末费用结算或推高成本 2025H1煤价持续下行，煤企经营策略从Q1以量补价，过渡到Q2成本控制，在库存高企及需求低迷的背 景下，成本控制成为业内抵御价格寒 ...

25Q4 煤炭行业基金持仓分析 基金持仓环比小幅提升，但仍处于较低水平 glmszqdatemark 重点公司盈利预测、估值与评级 | 代码 | 简称 | 股价 | | EPS（元） | | | PE（X） | | 评级 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | （元） | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | | | 601001 | 晋控煤业 | 15.00 | 1.68 | 1.01 | 1.32 | 9 | 15 | 11 | 推荐 | | 600546 | 山煤国际 | 10.90 | 1.14 | 0.67 | 1.17 | 10 | 16 | 9 | 推荐 | | 601699 | 潞安环能 | 13.20 | 0.82 | 0.74 | 1.01 | 16 | 18 | 13 | 推荐 | | 600348 | 华阳股份 | 9.39 | 0.62 | 0.47 | 0.67 | 15 | 20 | 14 | 推荐 | | 600188 | ...

| 代码 | 简称 | 今日涨跌幅（%） | 今日换手率（%） | 主力资金流量（万元） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 601088 | 中国神华 | 4.13 | 0.42 | 16900.76 | | 601225 | 陕西煤业 | 2.38 | 0.75 | 15718.00 | | 600348 | 华阳股份 | 2.29 | 2.58 | 7742.52 | | 600188 | 兖矿能源 | 3.32 | 1.34 | 7194.32 | | 601666 | 平煤股份 | 1.58 | 1.37 | 4035.16 | | 601898 | 中煤能源 | 3.22 | 0.61 | 3832.53 | | 601699 | 潞安环能 | 1.93 | 1.56 | 3368.70 | | 601918 | 新集能源 | 1.42 | 2.44 | 2409.10 | | 600985 | 淮北矿业 | 3.30 | 1.72 | 1924.28 | | 600792 | 云煤能源 | 1.20 | 2.50 | 1787.99 | | 600123 | ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant transformation and structural adjustments in China's energy sector, particularly focusing on Yanzhou Coal Mining Company Limited (Yankuang Energy), which has undergone a systematic change over the past five years, achieving substantial growth in scale and efficiency [2]. Group 1: Strategic Transformation - Yankuang Energy's development trajectory over the past five years can be summarized by three keywords: strategic transformation, resource aggregation, and international development [2]. - The company has established five major industrial layouts: mining, high-end chemical new materials, new energy, high-end equipment manufacturing, and smart logistics, breaking away from a single coal enterprise model [2][3]. Group 2: Resource Aggregation and Internationalization - Since the restructuring with Shandong Energy Group in 2020, Yankuang Energy has completed significant strategic mergers and acquisitions, adding approximately 32 billion tons of resource volume and 3.6 billion tons of recoverable reserves over five years [3]. - The company is the only domestic energy enterprise listed in six locations globally, including Shanghai, Hong Kong, New York, Sydney, Frankfurt, and Munich, which has facilitated a unique international governance system and operational stability [3]. Group 3: Financial Performance - Key financial metrics have shown significant changes: total assets increased from 258.9 billion yuan at the end of 2020 to 358.6 billion yuan by the end of 2024, a growth of 38.5%; net assets grew by 52.7% [4]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders rose from 7.1 billion yuan in 2020 to 14.4 billion yuan in 2024, totaling 88.72 billion yuan over five years [4]. Group 4: Industry Resilience and Strategic Decisions - The most critical strategic decision was the establishment of a "five major industries" ecosystem, which allows the company to escape the cyclical nature of the coal industry and pursue a path of multi-industry collaboration and sustainable development [6]. - The company has implemented a proactive approach to industry cycle fluctuations, utilizing a combination of strategies to maintain profitability and operational efficiency [7]. Group 5: Future Directions and Goals - For the "15th Five-Year Plan," the core direction is to cultivate new productive forces, focusing on a new development model and governance structure [10]. - By 2030, the company aims to achieve a coal production target of over 300 million tons and ensure that high-end chemical new materials account for over 70% of its portfolio [11]. Group 6: Technological Innovation and Competitive Advantage - The core competitive advantage of Yankuang Energy lies in its systematic capabilities formed by professional accumulation, capital operation, and international development [9]. - The company has established a "3+N" high-end innovation platform, implementing 170 technology projects, achieving world-leading levels in deep mining and intelligent mining construction [9]. Group 7: Commitment to Sustainability - Yankuang Energy is committed to green transformation, with goals to exceed 10 million kilowatts of new energy installed capacity by 2030 and to develop multiple green intelligent mines and "zero-carbon parks" [11]. - The company is also exploring integrated solutions for wind, solar, and hydrogen storage, aiming to enhance its sustainability efforts [11]. Group 8: Information Disclosure and Investor Relations - The company has upgraded its information disclosure practices from compliance to value transmission, significantly enhancing transparency and investor relations [12][13]. - Yankuang Energy has established a proactive investor management model, engaging in over 200 communication activities annually to foster a better understanding of its value among investors [13].

型及広 煤炭/ 煤炭开采 版费 行业 相关研究 近券研究报 证券分析师 严天鹏 A0230524090004 yantp@swsresearch.com 闫海 A0230519010004 yanhai@swsresearch.com 施佳瑜 A0230521040004 shijy@swsresearch.com 研究支持 施佳瑜 A0230521040004 shijy@swsresearch.com 联系人 施佳瑜 A0230521040004 shijy@swsresearch.com 2026 年 01 月 26 日 节前寒潮频繁扰动,有望支撑 委员 娱炭行业周报（2026.1.17-2026.1.23） 本期投资后了 ● 动力煤方面，截至 1 月 23 日，据中国煤炭市场网，秦皇岛港口 Q4500、Q5000、 Q5500动力煤现货价收报 514、599、685元/吨，环比-8、-9、-10 元/吨。供给端, 据中国煤炭市场网，环渤海四港区本周日均调入量 159.11 万吨，环比上周减少 0.6 万 吨,降幅 0.39%,同比下降 4.12%,产地生产正常,降雪对运输的影响已消除。需求 端,寒潮来 ...

Summary of Conference Call on Coal Industry Industry Overview - The conference focused on the coal industry, specifically discussing coal prices and production trends for 2025 and 2026 [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments Coal Production Data - National raw coal production for 2025 is projected to reach 4.83 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.2% [2]. - December 2025's monthly raw coal production was 440 million tons, showing a year-on-year decline of 1.0% [2]. - Daily average production in December was 14.1 million tons, aligning with expectations [2]. - The production trend indicates a high supply in the first half of 2025, followed by a decrease in the latter half, leading to a constrained overall supply [3]. Predictions for 2026 - The coal production for 2026 is not expected to exceed that of 2025 due to two main factors: 1. Gradual exit of pre-synthetic capacity, particularly in major production areas like Shaanxi [4]. 2. Increased safety regulations starting February 1, 2026, which will raise costs for smaller mines, potentially leading to capacity exits [5][6]. - Estimated capacity exit due to safety regulations could be around 70-80 million tons over two years [5]. Import Coal Trends - December 2025 saw a record high of 58 million tons in coal imports, attributed to: 1. Significant price increases in October and November, prompting coastal power plants to increase imports [6][7]. 2. Year-end contracts leading to concentrated customs declarations [7]. - Uncertainties in Indonesia's export policies, including new tariffs and quotas, may reduce coal exports in 2026 compared to 2025 [8][10]. Price Trends - Current coal prices show a slight decline, with Qinhuangdao 5500 kcal coal priced at 685 RMB, down from 695 RMB [10]. - Inner Mongolia coal prices increased to 1800 RMB, up by 30 RMB from the previous week [10]. - The differentiation between thermal coal and coking coal prices continues, with coking coal showing stronger performance [10][12]. Inventory and Demand - National power plant inventories decreased by 2.7 percentage points week-on-week and 2.9 percentage points year-on-year, indicating strong demand [14]. - The available days of inventory are currently at 17.9 days, down 4.1 days from the previous year [14]. - A cold weather forecast could further tighten inventory levels and boost prices [14][11]. Future Outlook - The coal market is expected to remain stable with a slight upward trend in prices over the next 1-2 weeks, influenced by weather conditions and inventory levels [11][12]. - Post-Spring Festival, the market may shift into a seasonal downturn for thermal coal while coking coal could enter a demand peak [24][25]. Additional Insights - The overall trend in global commodity prices, including oil and natural gas, shows a strong correlation with coal prices, indicating a robust demand environment [17][18]. - The shift towards clean energy sources continues to impact coal demand, with significant growth in renewable energy generation [19][20]. - The coal industry's performance in 2026 will heavily depend on electricity generation growth, which is projected to be around 3% [21][22]. Investment Recommendations - The focus remains on companies with strong dividend yields and low valuations, such as China Shenhua, Zhongmei Energy, and Huaihe Energy, which are expected to perform well in a stable market [27][28]. - Specific stocks like Yanzhou Coal Mining Company are highlighted as key investment opportunities for 2026 due to their strong fundamentals and market positioning [30][31].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for several key companies in the coal industry, including China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Energy, and Xinji Energy, among others [11][14]. Core Insights - The coal market is currently experiencing a weak supply-demand balance, with prices expected to remain stable amidst high inventory levels and fluctuating demand [18][30]. - The report highlights the potential for "black swan" events, particularly from increased demand in the U.S. and reduced production/export from Indonesia, which could significantly impact coal prices [3]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring companies with overseas operations, such as Qinfa and Yancoal Australia, as they may benefit from shifts in the global coal trade [3]. Market Overview - The CITIC Coal Index reached 3743.77 points, up 1.44%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 2.06 percentage points [77]. - The U.S. coal stock BTU reached a new high of $39.95 per share, indicating a strong market performance [2]. - Indonesia is tightening coal supply by closing illegal mining operations, which could further influence global coal prices [2]. Key Areas of Analysis - **Thermal Coal**: Daily consumption is rising, but high inventory levels are leading to a weak market sentiment. Prices are expected to fluctuate as the market approaches the Chinese New Year [18][30]. - **Coking Coal**: The first round of price increases has faced resistance, and market sentiment is weakening. Focus is on pre-holiday stockpiling needs [37][51]. - **Coke**: Price increases have been delayed, and market sentiment is declining, with steel mills maintaining cautious purchasing strategies [51][75]. Key Companies - The report recommends focusing on companies such as China Shenhua, Yancoal Australia, and Qinfa, which are well-positioned to capitalize on market changes [14][12]. - Companies like Peabody (BTU) and Jin控煤业 are also highlighted for their potential growth opportunities [14][12].