Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the coal industry [9]. Core Insights - The recent surge in thermal coal prices is attributed to unexpected demand due to climate anomalies and tightened supply from production checks. The report suggests that similar conditions to previous price spikes could lead to further price increases in Q4 2025 [2][6][7]. - The coal index (Yangtze) increased by 4.14% this week, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 6.37 percentage points, ranking 2nd out of 32 industries [6][15]. - As of October 17, the market price for thermal coal at Qinhuangdao was 748 RMB/ton, up 43 RMB/ton week-on-week, while coking coal prices at Jingtang Port rose to 1710 RMB/ton, an increase of 80 RMB/ton [6][15][44]. Summary by Sections Recent Trends - The report highlights that the thermal coal price has seen a significant increase due to early winter conditions and tight supply. The price is expected to continue to rise in Q4 due to these factors [6][16]. - The daily coal consumption across 25 provinces was 5.188 million tons, a decrease of 5.4% week-on-week but an increase of 0.8% year-on-year [16][36]. Price Movements - The report notes that the thermal coal price has increased by 6.10% recently, with significant price movements observed in the past five years during similar conditions [7][44]. - The report also discusses the historical context of price increases, identifying key periods where prices surged due to supply constraints and demand spikes [7]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on coal stocks that have shown signs of bottom reversal and possess defensive characteristics, particularly in light of the ongoing trade tensions [7]. - Specific companies highlighted for their potential include Yanzhou Coal Mining, China Shenhua Energy, and Shanxi Coal International Energy [7][28].

| | | 2025 年 10 月 19 日 行业研究 评级：推荐(维持) | 研究所： | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | | 陈晨 S0350522110007 | | | | chenc09@ghzq.com.cn | | 联系人 | ： | 张益 S0350124100016 | | | | zhangy33@ghzq.com.cn | | 联系人 | ： | 徐萌 S0350125070001 | | | | xum02@ghzq.com.cn | 《能源开采行业深度专题：能源结构变革中的中国 电力用煤需求展望（推荐）*煤炭开采*陈晨》—— 2025-10-18 [Table_Title] 铁路检修、天气北冷南暖，供需两端双发力下港 口煤价大幅上涨 ——煤炭开采行业周报 最近一年走势 | 行业相对表现 | | 2025/10/17 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | 煤炭开采 | 6.6% | 16.2% | -1.0% | | 沪深 300 | -0.8% | 11.9% | 19.2% ...

——煤炭行业周报（10月第2周） 证券研究报告 大寒潮+严安全，旺季积极布局 1.煤炭板块收涨，跑赢沪深300指数：截止2025年10月17日，本周中信煤炭行业收涨4.27%，沪深300指数下跌2.22%，跑赢沪深300指数6.49个百分点。全板块整周28只股价上涨，7只 下跌，2只持平。大有能源涨幅最高，整周涨幅为53.13%。 2.重点煤矿周度数据：中国煤炭运销协会数据，2025年10月10日-2025年10月16日，重点监测企业煤炭日均销量为705万吨，周环比增加7.7%，年同比减少5.7%。其中，动力煤周日均 销量较上周增加8.4%，炼焦煤销量较上周增加8.1%，无烟煤销量较上周增加1.3%。截至2025年10月16日，重点监测企业煤炭日均产量为691万吨，周环比增加2.5%，年同比减少6.1%； 重点监测企业煤炭库存总量（含港存）2436万吨，周环比减少3.9%，年同比减少11.3%。今年以来，供给端，重点监测企业煤炭累计销量200342.8万吨，同比减少2.6%；其中动力煤、 焦煤、无烟煤累计销量分别同比-3.6%、-2.8%、6.2%。需求端，电力、化工行业累计耗煤分别同比减少2.7%、增加15 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the coal mining industry [4]. Core Insights - India is signing more coal power procurement agreements to meet the growing electricity demand, with over 17GW of coal power capacity entering various stages of contract processes [2][3]. - The report highlights the expected increase in coal power capacity in India from 210GW to 307GW by 2035, a growth of 46% [3]. - The report emphasizes the resilience of certain companies in the coal sector, recommending investments in companies like Lu'an Huanneng, Yanzhou Coal, and Jin Control Coal [3]. Summary by Sections Coal Mining - The report notes a significant increase in coal prices, with European ARA port coal prices rising to $96 per ton (+6.19%) and Newcastle port coal prices reaching $111.45 per ton (+6.60%) [1][34]. - India plans to sign at least 7GW of coal power procurement agreements in the coming months to address peak electricity demand [2]. Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies include Lu'an Huanneng, Yanzhou Coal, Jin Control Coal, and China Shenhua, with a focus on companies showing strong performance and potential for growth [3][6]. - The report suggests monitoring companies like Huayang Co. and Gansu Energy Chemical for future growth opportunities [3]. Industry Trends - The coal mining industry is expected to experience a rebound in demand, driven by India's increasing reliance on coal for electricity generation [3][37]. - The report indicates that despite the push for renewable energy, coal will remain a significant part of India's energy mix for the foreseeable future [3].

煤价如期上涨，板块反转可期 [Table_ReportTime] 2025 年 10 月 19 日 证券研究报告 行业研究-周报 [Table_ReportType] 行业周报 | [Table_StockAndRank] 煤炭开采 | | | --- | --- | | 投资评级 | 看好 | | 上次评级 | 看好 | 高升：煤炭钢铁行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500524100002 邮箱：gaosheng@cindasc.com 李睿：煤炭钢铁行业分析师 执业编号：S1500525040002 邮箱：lirui@cindasc.com 刘波： 煤炭钢铁行业分析师 执业编号：S1500525070001 邮箱：liubo1@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDASECURITIESCO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲 127 号 金隅大厦 B 座 邮编：100031 [Table_Title] 煤价如期上涨，板块反转可期 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 10 月 19 日 本期内容提要: [Table_Summary] 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 ht ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the coal industry [2][5]. Core Views - The coal price is expected to maintain a strong upward trend due to multiple factors, including supply constraints and increased demand driven by cold winter expectations and export pressures [7][8]. - The report highlights the potential for investment opportunities in the coal sector, particularly in companies with high elasticity in their stock prices [8]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The coal industry comprises 37 listed companies with a total market capitalization of 1,954.93 billion yuan and a circulating market value of 1,915.57 billion yuan [2]. 2. Coal Price Trends - The price of thermal coal at the port increased by 43 yuan/ton week-on-week, reaching 753 yuan/ton as of October 17, 2025, marking a 6.06% increase from the previous week [8]. - The average daily production of thermal coal from 462 sample mines was 5.52 million tons, a slight decrease of 0.13% week-on-week and a 3.93% decrease year-on-year [8]. 3. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Supply constraints are expected to persist due to increased safety inspections and anticipated rainfall in major production areas, which may limit coal production and transportation [7][8]. - Demand is bolstered by expectations of a cold winter, leading to early stockpiling by power plants, and ongoing high demand from the steel industry [8]. 4. Key Companies and Recommendations - Recommended high-elasticity stocks include Yanzhou Coal Mining, Shanxi Coal International, and Jinneng Holding, among others, which are expected to benefit from the favorable market conditions [8]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring companies' dividend policies and growth prospects, with several companies expected to maintain or increase their dividend payouts [13]. 5. Market Performance - The coal sector has seen significant price fluctuations, with the report indicating that the coal price is likely to remain resilient despite seasonal trends [8]. - The report notes that the coal sector's performance is expected to improve as supply-demand dynamics become more favorable [8].

Group 1 - The report highlights the tightening of safety regulations in the coal industry, which is expected to lead to a recovery in the performance of flexible stocks due to rising coal prices during the peak season [2][4][21] - In September, significant events included the strict enforcement of safety regulations in coal-producing areas and the release of a consultation draft for coking coal options [5][6] - The report notes that the domestic coal production growth rate is slowing, with a focus on the supply side and the impact of safety inspections on production capacity [10][28] Group 2 - Demand for coal is strong ahead of maintenance on the Daqin railway, with high iron and steel production during the "golden September and silver October" period [4][21] - The coal supply-demand balance indicates a potential increase in coal prices as the market adjusts to seasonal demand fluctuations [22][20] - The report anticipates that the seasonal adjustment of railway freight rates will enhance the economic viability of coal production areas and increase price volatility [16][14] Group 3 - The report provides a detailed analysis of coal production and sales trends, indicating that coal production in major regions like Shanxi and Inner Mongolia is stabilizing, while overall production is concentrated among a few large companies [33][41] - The coal import volume has decreased significantly, with a notable decline in imports from Indonesia and Mongolia, reflecting broader market trends [46][47] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring coal prices and production levels, particularly in light of recent regulatory changes and market dynamics [39][42]

截至2025年10月17日 10:07，中证国有企业红利指数(000824)上涨0.25%，成分股兖矿能源(600188)上涨 3.38%，神火股份(000933)上涨2.01%，农业银行(601288)上涨1.87%，厦门银行(601187)上涨1.63%，皖 通高速(600012)上涨1.58%。国企红利ETF(159515)上涨0.17%。 消息面上，10月底，A股上市公司将批量发布2025年三季报，部分上市公司有望实施季度分红，这有望 助力红利资产成为市场热点。且多家上市公司三季报预喜，红利资产有望逐渐修复。按照交易所的规 定，10月底A股上市公司将披露三季报，届时投资者将关注高股息资产的基本面变化。 国企红利ETF(159515)，场外联接(鹏扬中证国有企业红利ETF联接A：020115；鹏扬中证国有企业红利 ETF联接C：020116)。 风险提示：本产品由鹏扬基金管理有限公司发行与管理，销售机构不承担产品的投资、兑付和风险管理 责任。基金管理人承诺以诚实信用、勤勉尽责的原则管理和运用基金资产，但不保证基金一定盈利，也 不保证最低收益。基金的过往业绩并不预示其未来表现，本公司管理的其他基金的业绩并 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market saw a rise in coal stocks, with notable increases in companies such as Antai Group and Dayou Energy reaching the daily limit up [1] - Antai Group and Dayou Energy both experienced a 10% increase, while other companies like Baotailong and Yunmei Energy also showed significant gains [1][2] - Year-to-date performance for these coal stocks indicates strong growth, with Dayou Energy up 124.49% and Antai Group up 44.88% [2] Group 2 - The total market capitalization of Antai Group is 2.99 billion, while Dayou Energy has a market cap of 15.8 billion [2] - Other coal companies such as Baotailong and Yunmei Energy have market caps of 8.08 billion and 4.77 billion respectively, reflecting their growing presence in the market [2] - The overall trend in the coal sector suggests a robust performance amidst broader market conditions [1]

2025年10月17日 标的指数成份股涨幅 TOP20 标普中国 A 股红利机会指数(CSPSADRP) | 序号 | 4685 | 简称 | 東日涨幅 | 年内涨幅 | 股息率(近12个 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | (96) | (96) | 月) (%) | | 1 | 603730.SH 岱美股份 | | 5.15 | 7.95 | 3.77 | | 2 | 605098.SH 行动教育 | | 4.63 | 21.02 | 5.53 | | 3 | H5'866T09 | 中信银行 | 3.84 | 14.49 | 4.46 | | 4 | 600188.SH | 兖矿能源 | 3.71 | 10.45 | 6.42 | | 5 | 601288.SH | 农业银行 | 3.03 | 46.57 | 3.23 | | 6 | 601088.SH | 中国神华 | 2.81 | 2.25 | 5.38 | | 7 | 601939 SH | 建设银行 | 2.68 | 9.46 | 4.19 | | 8 | 002807.SZ | 江阴 ...