Summary of Coal Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the coal industry in China, particularly the impact of recent policies and market dynamics on coal supply and pricing [1][3][9]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Coal Price Surge**: Post-holiday, coal prices have risen unexpectedly due to multiple factors, including prolonged summer heat in southern China, autumn rains in northern regions, and increased market demand for safe-haven assets amid the US-China trade war [1][2][4]. 2. **Supply-Side Policies**: The "anti-involution" policy has been implemented in three phases: preparation, response, and execution. This includes checks on overproduction and penalties for non-compliance, which are expected to tighten supply and heighten market expectations for future shortages [1][3][7]. 3. **Production Capacity**: The combined production capacity of Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia has reached 70 million tons, with national capacity nearing 5 billion tons. However, actual production may be lower due to ongoing safety inspections and potential shutdowns [1][9]. 4. **Demand Outlook**: The manufacturing sector shows weak demand growth expectations, and the re-escalation of the US-China trade war poses long-term negative impacts. A potential cold winter could increase energy demand, further tightening supply [1][10]. 5. **Investment Recommendations**: Companies with strong dividend attributes and price elasticity are recommended for investment, including China Shenhua, China Coal Energy, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and Yanzhou Coal Mining Company. Yanzhou is highlighted for its low valuation, high dividend yield, and significant growth potential [1][11][12]. 6. **Market Price Forecast**: The coal market is expected to maintain a tight balance from Q4 2025 to early 2026, with prices likely to rise. Current average prices are around 715-717 RMB/ton, lower than last year's average of 855 RMB/ton, but the overall trend is expected to be stable with an upward bias [1][13]. Additional Important Insights - The execution of the anti-involution policy will significantly influence supply dynamics, and strict enforcement could lead to further price support [1][8]. - The market's reaction to international uncertainties, particularly the US-China trade relations, will continue to drive demand for coal as a defensive asset [1][4][8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the coal industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector's performance relative to the overall market [32]. Core Insights - Domestic raw coal production increased by 2.8% year-on-year to 3.165 billion tons from January to August 2025, while coal imports fell by 11.1% year-on-year to 35 million tons from January to September 2025 [4][18]. - In Q3 2025, both thermal coal and coking coal prices rebounded, with the average price of 5500 kcal thermal coal at ports rising to approximately 673 CNY/ton, a 6.75% increase from Q2 2025, despite a 20.66% decrease year-on-year [4][23]. - Key companies in the coal sector are expected to report varying performance in their Q3 2025 earnings, with China Shenhua and Shaanxi Coal achieving better-than-expected results, while Shanxi Coking Coal and Huai Bei Mining are projected to meet expectations [4][25]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply of coal remains tight due to production capacity checks, while demand is robust, leading to a rebound in coal prices during Q3 2025 [4][23]. - The report highlights that major coal-producing regions like Shanxi and Shaanxi have shown production increases, while Inner Mongolia experienced a slight decline [10][18]. Price Trends - The report details significant price fluctuations in coal types, with thermal coal prices showing a rebound in Q3 2025 compared to Q2 2025, while coking coal prices also saw increases due to supply constraints [21][24]. - The average price of Shanxi's main coking coal at the port was reported at 1564 CNY/ton, reflecting a 19.09% increase from Q2 2025, despite a year-on-year decrease [24]. Company Performance Forecast - The report provides earnings forecasts for key coal companies, indicating that China Shenhua is expected to report an EPS of 1.97 CNY, while companies like Shaanxi Coal and Shanxi Coking Coal are projected to have EPS of 1.29 CNY and 0.25 CNY, respectively [25]. - The report identifies companies with strong earnings potential, recommending investments in undervalued stocks such as Shanxi Coking Coal and Huai Bei Mining, while also suggesting stable dividend-paying stocks like China Shenhua and Shaanxi Coal [4][25].

Core Viewpoint - The coal industry is expected to rebound in the fourth quarter of 2025, driven by a price recovery and improved profitability for coal companies, following a period of decline due to falling coal prices and poor profits [1] Supply - In July, China's raw coal production was 380 million tons, a decrease of 4 million tons (-9.5%) month-on-month and 9 million tons (-3.8%) year-on-year; in August, production was 390 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of about 6 million tons (-3.2%) [2] - The total coal production for 2025 is projected to be approximately 4.71 billion tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.1% [2] - Coal imports showed a recovery in July and August, with July imports at 35.61 million tons (down 22.9% year-on-year) and August at 42.74 million tons (down 6.7% year-on-year) [2] Demand - The expectation of a cold winter is likely to increase demand in November and December, with a projected year-on-year growth in national electricity consumption of 5%-6% for 2025 [3] - Chemical coal demand remains high, with significant year-on-year increases in coal-based PVC, ethylene glycol, and methanol production [3] Inventory - Inventory pressures across various segments have eased compared to the first half of the year, supporting a rebound in coal prices [4] - Mainstream port inventories have decreased to 60.43 million tons, down from mid-May highs, and coal company sales have improved [4] Price - The tightening supply expectations have raised the bottom price for coal, with the fourth-quarter price expected to center around 750 yuan/ton [5] - The focus on production checks and stricter safety inspections has contributed to the price rebound [5] Investment Recommendations - The coal sector is currently at a cyclical low with high PE and low PB ratios, indicating potential for rebound as coal prices rise [6] - Recommended stocks include: - Elastic stocks: Yanzhou Coal Mining (600188.SH), Jincheng Anthracite Mining (601001.SH) [6] - Growth stocks: Electric Power Investment (002128.SZ), Huayang Co. (600348.SH) [6] - Long-term stable stocks: China Shenhua Energy (601088.SH), China Coal Energy (601898.SH) [6]

Core Viewpoints - The coal industry is expected to see a rebound in the fourth quarter of 2025, driven by a potential increase in coal prices and improved profitability for coal companies as supply constraints become evident [2][11][18]. Group 1: PE and PB Analysis - The coal sector has experienced a downward trend in both PE and PB after a period of rapid growth, with significant differentiation observed during two periods: 2014-2017 and mid-2024 to present [2][11]. - The current PE is at approximately the 65th percentile since 2005, while the PB is at about the 27th percentile, indicating a cyclical low for the sector [17][18]. Group 2: Supply Dynamics - Coal production in July and August 2025 saw a year-on-year decrease due to rainfall and regulatory checks, with an expected slight decline in total production for the year [3][37]. - The total coal production for 2025 is projected to be around 4.71 billion tons, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 1.1% [3][37]. Group 3: Demand Outlook - Anticipated cold winter conditions are expected to boost demand in the winter months, with electricity consumption projected to grow by 5-6% year-on-year in 2025 [4]. - Chemical coal demand remains robust, with significant year-on-year increases in production for coal-based PVC, ethylene glycol, and methanol [4]. Group 4: Inventory and Price Trends - Inventory pressures across various segments have eased compared to the first half of the year, supporting a rebound in coal prices [5]. - The expectation of supply contraction is likely to elevate the price floor for coal, with seasonal demand potentially opening up upward price movement [5]. Group 5: Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several stocks based on their potential for rebound and growth, including Yanzhou Coal Mining Company, Jinneng Holding, and China Shenhua Energy [5].

Core Viewpoint - The coal sector in Hong Kong has seen a general increase in stock prices, driven by a recovery in Mongolian coal imports and a supportive supply-demand balance for coking coal [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - Coal stocks in Hong Kong experienced widespread gains, with Yanzhou Coal Mining rising by 4%, South Gobi and Green Leader Holdings increasing by 2.5%, and other companies like Yancoal Australia and Shougang Resources also seeing gains of over 2% [1][2]. - Specific stock price movements include Yanzhou Coal at 10.970 with a 3.98% increase, South Gobi at 2.450 with a 2.51% increase, and Green Leader Holdings at 0.083 with a 2.47% increase [2]. Group 2: Industry Insights - According to Zheshang Securities, the third quarter saw a rebound in Mongolian coal imports, which, along with a recovery in supply chain trade profits, indicates a potential for profit restoration in Mongolian coal trading enterprises [1]. - The report suggests that if the coal industry continues to enforce production checks, the tight supply-demand balance for coking coal may support prices [1]. - Zhongtai Securities noted that despite short-term pressures from poor mid-year performance and the tech sector's influence, there are new investment opportunities emerging in the coal sector, recommending active positioning to capitalize on these opportunities [1].

Core Viewpoint - The coal stocks in Hong Kong have generally risen, driven by a recovery in Mongolian coal imports and a supportive supply-demand balance for coking coal, as highlighted by recent research reports from securities firms [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - Yanzhou Coal Mining Company (兖矿能源) increased by 4% to a price of 10.970 [1] - South Gobi Resources (南戈壁) rose by 2.5% to 2.450 [1] - Green Leader Holdings (绿领控股) saw a 2.5% increase, reaching 0.083 [1] - Yancoal Australia (兖煤澳大利亚) gained over 2%, with a price of 27.800 [1] - Shougang Resources (首钢资源) increased by 2.11% to 2.910 [1] - China Coal Energy (中煤能源) rose by 1.7% to 10.160 [1] - China Shenhua Energy (中国神华) saw an increase of over 1% to 39.980 [1] Group 2: Industry Insights - Zheshang Securities reported that the third quarter saw a rebound in Mongolian coal imports, with supply chain trade profits also recovering due to price rebounds [1] - The domestic environment of "anti-involution" is maintaining high iron and steel production levels, which, along with ongoing efforts to curb overproduction in the coal industry, is expected to support coking coal prices [1] - Zhongtai Securities noted that despite short-term pressures from poor mid-year performance and the impact of technology sector trends, new investment opportunities in the coal sector are emerging, suggesting active positioning to capitalize on coal investment opportunities [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Energy ETF (159930) opened with a decline of 2.27%, indicating a negative market sentiment towards energy stocks [1] Group 1: ETF Performance - The Energy ETF (159930) opened at 1.333 yuan, reflecting a drop in value [1] - Since its establishment on August 23, 2013, the fund has achieved a return of 37.76% [1] - The fund's performance over the past month shows a return of 3.11% [1] Group 2: Major Holdings Performance - Major holdings in the Energy ETF experienced declines, including: - China Shenhua down 0.78% - China Petroleum down 1.69% - China Petrochemical down 1.30% - Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry down 1.79% - China National Offshore Oil Corporation down 1.64% - Yanzhou Coal Mining down 2.28% - Jereh Group down 3.94% - China Coal Energy down 1.68% - Shanxi Coking Coal down 2.60% - Meijin Energy down 2.82% [1] Group 3: Management Information - The Energy ETF is managed by Huatai-PineBridge Fund Management Co., Ltd. [1] - The fund managers are Dong Jin and Sun Hao [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the coal mining industry [1] Core Views - The coal price at ports has rebounded due to supply constraints, with the northern port's thermal coal price reaching 709 RMB/ton on October 11, an increase of 8 RMB/ton compared to September 28 [3][15] - The supply side has tightened due to rainfall and maintenance, while demand remains resilient, particularly in the chemical sector and electricity consumption [15][73] - The report highlights the investment value of coal companies, emphasizing their strong cash flow and high dividend yields, suggesting a focus on low-priced coal stocks [6][73] Summary by Sections Thermal Coal - The supply side has tightened, with the capacity utilization rate in the Sanxi region decreasing by 0.24 percentage points to 90.44% as of October 8 [21] - The daily consumption of coastal and inland power plants has increased by 17.7 thousand tons and 69.2 thousand tons respectively [23] - The inventory at coastal and inland power plants reached 127.668 million tons as of October 9, a year-on-year increase of 0.611 million tons [15][29] Coking Coal - The capacity utilization rate for coking coal mines decreased by 1.94 percentage points to 83.77% during the holiday period [40] - The price of main coking coal at the port was 1,630 RMB/ton as of October 11, down 120 RMB/ton from September 28 [41] - The average profit per ton of coking coal has turned positive, indicating improved profitability in the sector [55] Focus Companies - Key companies to watch include China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and Yancoal, all of which are recommended for investment due to their strong fundamentals and market positions [6][73]

证券研究报告 南热北寒需求旺，煤炭红利避险优选 ——煤炭行业周报（10月第1周） 行业评级：看好 2025年10月12日 分析师 樊金璐 邮箱 fanjinlu@stocke.com.cn 电话 13466717654 证书编号 S1230525030002 摘要 1.煤炭板块收涨，跑赢沪深300指数：截止2025年10月10日，本周中信煤炭行业收涨4.3%，沪深300指数下跌0.51%，跑赢沪深300指数4.81个百分点。全板块整周37只股价上涨，0只下 跌。宝泰隆涨幅最高，整周涨幅为13.54%。 2.重点煤矿周度数据：中国煤炭运销协会数据，2025年10月3日-2025年10月9日，重点监测企业煤炭日均销量为655万吨，周环比减少13%，年同比减少13.6%。其中，动力煤周日均销量 较上周减少13.1%，炼焦煤销量较上周减少11.5%，无烟煤销量较上周减少3.3%。截至2025年10月9日，重点监测企业煤炭日均产量为674万吨，周环比减少100%，年同比减少100%；重 点监测企业煤炭库存总量（含港存）2536万吨，周环比增加4.4%，年同比减少9%。今年以来，供给端，重点监测企业煤炭累计销量19540 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the coal industry [2][5]. Core Views - The supply-demand situation is improving, leading to a stable and slightly rising trend in coal prices. The report anticipates that coal prices will maintain a strong oscillating trend in late October 2025 [7][8]. - The demand side is supported by higher temperatures leading to increased coal consumption, particularly in coastal and inland provinces. The average daily coal consumption reached 5.486 million tons as of October 9, 2025, a week-on-week increase of 18.82% and a year-on-year increase of 8.29% [7][8]. - On the supply side, there are expectations of tighter supply due to regulatory measures against overproduction and adverse weather conditions affecting coal production and transportation [7][8]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The coal industry consists of 37 listed companies with a total market capitalization of 185.34 billion yuan and a circulating market capitalization of 181.40 billion yuan [2]. 2. Price Tracking - The report indicates that the price of thermal coal at the Qinhuangdao port was 710 yuan per ton as of October 10, 2025, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 5 yuan per ton [8]. - The average daily production of thermal coal from 462 sample mines was 5.529 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 0.23% and a year-on-year decrease of 3.42% [8]. 3. Inventory Tracking - The report notes that the Daqin line has begun its autumn maintenance, which will reduce daily transport capacity and may lead to further inventory depletion at ports [8]. 4. Downstream Performance - The steel market is entering a traditional peak season, which is expected to improve the demand for coking coal. The average daily pig iron production has remained above 2.4 million tons [7][8]. 5. Company Performance - Key companies recommended for investment include Yanzhou Coal Mining Company, Shanxi Coal and Chemical Industry Group, and others, which are expected to benefit from the improving coal price environment [8][12].