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建信沪深300红利ETF(512530)连续4日获资金净流入,所跟踪指数冲击六连阳,机构:第四季度或成为红利股布局关键时点之一
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-10-16 02:49
截至2025年10月16日 10:15,沪深300红利指数(000821)上涨0.39%,日线冲击六连阳,样本股中煤能源 (601898)上涨3.72%,中国太保(601601)上涨2.57%,兖矿能源(600188)上涨1.82%,陕西煤业(601225)上 涨1.65%,中国神华(601088)上涨1.54%。Wind数据显示,建信沪深300红利ETF(512530)近4天获得连续 资金净流入。 相关产品: 中信证券表示,复盘历史,2025年第四季度或成为红利股布局、获取超额收益的关键时点之一,目前基 本面预期或已充分反映,且A股高速公路龙头重新回到5%左右的股息率 ,关注估值筑底后风格切换以 及增量资金稳健配置需求带来的布局机会。 中国银河证券指出,关税不确定性加剧全球资产价格波动,催生防御性配置需求,带来银行配置机遇。 银行板块分红稳定,且经过一段时期回调后股息率性价比回升,红利价值有望吸引避险资金流入。 建信沪深300红利ETF(512530)紧密跟踪沪深300红利指数,沪深300红利指数从沪深300指数样本中选取 股息率较高的50只上市公司证券作为指数样本,反映沪深300指数样本中高股息率证券的整 ...
煤炭股延续近期上涨 煤炭行业供给侧持续收紧 机构称四季度煤价具备向上弹性
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-10-16 02:07
煤炭股延续近期上涨,截至发稿,中煤能源(601898)(01898)涨6.39%,报10.99港元;兖矿能源 (600188)(01171)涨3.28%,报11.34港元;中国神华(601088)(01088)涨2.36%,报40.76港元;兖煤澳 大利亚(03668)涨1.27%,报28.74港元。 国信证券发布研报称,在2024年中至今,前期由于煤价下行、煤企利润不佳导致,但是2025年下半年煤 价反弹后,煤企利润有望改善且四季度煤价具备向上弹性,叠加本轮市场转好后,煤炭板块表现明显弱 于其他板块,且底部明确,看好板块四季度反弹。 方正证券发布研报称,产地查超产文件出台后,对煤价情绪影响较为明显,当前煤炭行业的供给侧收紧 成为投资主题,煤炭供大于求的局面有望逐步扭转,煤价也有望继续提升,2025年夏天高温带来的日耗 维持高位,煤炭需求起量,煤炭供需格局有所好转,随着今后"反内卷"政策的逐步落实,未来也可展望 对于进口煤的限制。 ...
煤炭行业四季度或供需两旺 上市公司积极助“燃”
Zheng Quan Ri Bao Wang· 2025-10-15 12:48
秋雨连绵、寒风乍起,煤市则暖意初现。随着今年下半年来最强冷空气10月14日起自北向南横扫我国, 华北、东北等地气温骤降超10℃,"迎峰度冬"这一季节性话题迅速回归资本市场视野。 山东卓创资讯(301299)股份有限公司分析师任慧云对《证券日报》记者表示:"整体来看,第四季度 国内动力煤供需关系或维持紧平衡,煤价仍有支撑,或呈现窄幅震荡上行走势。" 任慧云表示,从供应端来看,煤矿生产情况核查工作继续推进,反超产背景下煤矿生产心态整体仍偏谨 慎,行业整体延续边际收缩状态。需求端来看,随着气温下降,北方陆续开始供暖季,而据相关预测, 今年冬季或存冷冬可能,预计"迎峰度冬"旺季需求成色良好,需求韧性较强。 大同证券分析师表示,近期连续雨天不断,煤炭供给受到影响,大秦铁路(601006)检修、终端开启冬 储和非电煤旺季推进,短期看,预计共同支撑煤价走强。 10月15日,A股煤炭板块表现活跃,成为市场中一抹亮色。 业内分析指出,冷空气的提前到来强化了市场对第四季度煤炭需求的预期,加之供应端持续偏紧,煤炭 行业有望迎来供需两旺的冬季行情。 四季度煤炭业供需紧平衡 10月15日,A股煤炭板块延续近期强势表现,多只个股表现亮眼 ...
申万宏源:煤价回升 看好四季度煤企业绩进一步修复
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-10-15 06:13
低于预期的公司有1个:陕西黑猫(2025Q1-3eps为-0.32,YOY-3.82%;焦炭价格阶段性承压)。 据中国煤炭市场网数据,2025年第三季度港口5500大卡动力煤现货均价约为673元/吨,同比24Q3的848 元/吨下跌约20.66%,环比25Q2的630元/吨上升约6.75%。山西产主焦煤京唐港库提价2025年第三季度均 价为1564元/吨,同比24Q3下跌17.23%、环比25Q2上涨19.09%。 预计煤炭行业重点公司2025年三季报业绩情况如下 业绩超预期的公司有4个:中国神华(2025Q1-3eps1.97,YOY-15.01%;三季度煤炭产销量增长)、陕西煤 业(1.29,-21.46%;煤炭产量同比增长,煤价上涨)、山煤国际(0.64,-38.99%;三季度量价齐升);电投 能源(1.91,-2.39%,公司煤炭长协占比高售价较稳定,且受益于电解铝价格上涨)。 业绩基本符合预期的公司有9个:中煤能源(0.89,-18.92%,三季度煤价回升、成本管控较好);兖矿能 源(2025Q1-3eps0.70,YOY-48.67%;三季度国内、国际煤价反弹,销售库存增加销量);潞安环能 (0. ...
小红日报|标普红利ETF(562060)标的指数收涨0.49%,银行板块涨幅靠前
Xin Lang Ji Jin· 2025-10-15 02:02
标普中国 A 股红利机会指数(CSPSADRP) | 序号 | 4685 | 简称 | 東日涨幅 | 年内涨幅 | 股息率(近12个 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | (96) | (96) | 月) (%) | | 1 | 601077.SH 渝农商行 | | 5.92 | 24.04 | 4.25 | | 2 | 000568.SZ | 泸州老窖 | 4.20 | 11.18 | 4.49 | | 3 | 601187.SH | 厦门银行 | 4.04 | 21.43 | 4.63 | | 4 | 601825.SH | 沪农商行 | 3.62 | 5.68 | 5.06 | | 5 | 000719.SZ | 中原传媒 | 3.20 | 16.07 | 4.77 | | 6 | 601288.SH | 农业银行 | 3.18 | 39.52 | 3.39 | | 7 | 002807.SZ | 江阴银行 | 3.13 | 11.24 | 4.33 | | 8 | 600036.SH | 招商银行 | 2.87 | 9.53 | 4.85 | ...
煤炭反内卷政策梳理:超产核查渐落地,供给收缩仍可期
2025-10-14 14:44
煤炭反内卷政策梳理:超产核查渐落地,供给收缩仍可期 20251014 煤炭反内卷政策是如何发展的?其对行业有何影响? 煤炭反内卷政策自今年(2025 年)7 月开始逐步出台,并经历了酝酿期、响应 期和落地期三个阶段。具体发展如下: 1. 酝酿期:7 月 10 日国家发改委签发《关于组织开展煤矿生产情况核查促 进煤炭供应平稳有序的通知》,但政策细则直到 7 月 22 日才公布。 1. 夏季持续时间长:今年夏季持续时间异常长,尤其在华南和上海地区, 这导致煤炭日耗量维持在较高水平。 2. 天气影响:北方地区进入秋季后气温下降并伴随连绵秋雨,这对煤炭的 开采、运输和出港产生了影响。 3. 市场避险需求增加:中美贸易战再起及市场对避险和防守需求增强,使 得煤炭作为防守性板块受到关注。 摘要 异常夏季延长华南和上海煤炭日耗,北方秋雨影响煤炭开采运输,中美 贸易战引发市场避险需求,多重因素叠加致节后煤价超预期上涨。 煤炭反内卷政策历经酝酿、响应、落地三阶段,通过核查超产和停产处 罚影响供给端,加剧市场对未来供应紧张的预期。 煤炭行业未来走势取决于基本面能否支撑红利股和防守性板块的预期, 关注夏季高温、北方秋雨、政策执行力 ...
煤炭行业2025年三季报业绩前瞻:煤价回升,看好四季度煤企业绩进一步修复
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities· 2025-10-14 13:13
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the coal industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector's performance relative to the overall market [32]. Core Insights - Domestic raw coal production increased by 2.8% year-on-year to 3.165 billion tons from January to August 2025, while coal imports fell by 11.1% year-on-year to 35 million tons from January to September 2025 [4][18]. - In Q3 2025, both thermal coal and coking coal prices rebounded, with the average price of 5500 kcal thermal coal at ports rising to approximately 673 CNY/ton, a 6.75% increase from Q2 2025, despite a 20.66% decrease year-on-year [4][23]. - Key companies in the coal sector are expected to report varying performance in their Q3 2025 earnings, with China Shenhua and Shaanxi Coal achieving better-than-expected results, while Shanxi Coking Coal and Huai Bei Mining are projected to meet expectations [4][25]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply of coal remains tight due to production capacity checks, while demand is robust, leading to a rebound in coal prices during Q3 2025 [4][23]. - The report highlights that major coal-producing regions like Shanxi and Shaanxi have shown production increases, while Inner Mongolia experienced a slight decline [10][18]. Price Trends - The report details significant price fluctuations in coal types, with thermal coal prices showing a rebound in Q3 2025 compared to Q2 2025, while coking coal prices also saw increases due to supply constraints [21][24]. - The average price of Shanxi's main coking coal at the port was reported at 1564 CNY/ton, reflecting a 19.09% increase from Q2 2025, despite a year-on-year decrease [24]. Company Performance Forecast - The report provides earnings forecasts for key coal companies, indicating that China Shenhua is expected to report an EPS of 1.97 CNY, while companies like Shaanxi Coal and Shanxi Coking Coal are projected to have EPS of 1.29 CNY and 0.25 CNY, respectively [25]. - The report identifies companies with strong earnings potential, recommending investments in undervalued stocks such as Shanxi Coking Coal and Huai Bei Mining, while also suggesting stable dividend-paying stocks like China Shenhua and Shaanxi Coal [4][25].
国信证券:供应收缩预期抬高煤价底部 旺季需求释放或打开煤价上行空间
智通财经网· 2025-10-14 08:01
智通财经APP获悉,国信证券发布研报称,在2024年中至今,前期由于煤价下行、煤企利润不佳导致, 但是2025年下半年煤价反弹后,煤企利润有望改善且四季度煤价具备向上弹性,叠加本轮市场转好后, 煤炭板块表现明显弱于其他板块,且底部明确,看好板块四季度反弹。动力煤方面,查超产继续实质性 推进&安检进一步趋严,国庆节后煤价迅速止跌并反弹,反映供应收紧预期持续增强,抬高煤价底部, 旺季需求释放或打开煤价上行空间。四季度煤价中枢有望看向750元/吨。 国信证券主要观点如下: 从PE和PB变化看煤炭行业20年,把握板底部反转时机 纵观煤炭板块PE与PB变化,可以发现,煤炭行业经过前期的高速发展期后,PE和PB均震荡下行。期 间PE与PB有两次明显的分化。第一次在2014年-2017年中,主要系前期牛市拉动指数上涨,后期则是由 于煤企自身利润不佳,导致PE较高。第二次在2024年中至今,前期是由于煤价下行、煤企利润不佳导 致,但是2025年下半年煤价反弹后,煤企利润有望改善且四季度煤价具备向上弹性,叠加本轮市场转好 后,煤炭板块表现明显弱于其他板块,且底部明确,看好板块四季度反弹。 供给:降雨、查超产等影响下7/8月产量 ...
煤炭行业2025年四季度投资策略:底部明确,反弹可期
Guoxin Securities· 2025-10-14 06:25
Core Viewpoints - The coal industry is expected to see a rebound in the fourth quarter of 2025, driven by a potential increase in coal prices and improved profitability for coal companies as supply constraints become evident [2][11][18]. Group 1: PE and PB Analysis - The coal sector has experienced a downward trend in both PE and PB after a period of rapid growth, with significant differentiation observed during two periods: 2014-2017 and mid-2024 to present [2][11]. - The current PE is at approximately the 65th percentile since 2005, while the PB is at about the 27th percentile, indicating a cyclical low for the sector [17][18]. Group 2: Supply Dynamics - Coal production in July and August 2025 saw a year-on-year decrease due to rainfall and regulatory checks, with an expected slight decline in total production for the year [3][37]. - The total coal production for 2025 is projected to be around 4.71 billion tons, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 1.1% [3][37]. Group 3: Demand Outlook - Anticipated cold winter conditions are expected to boost demand in the winter months, with electricity consumption projected to grow by 5-6% year-on-year in 2025 [4]. - Chemical coal demand remains robust, with significant year-on-year increases in production for coal-based PVC, ethylene glycol, and methanol [4]. Group 4: Inventory and Price Trends - Inventory pressures across various segments have eased compared to the first half of the year, supporting a rebound in coal prices [5]. - The expectation of supply contraction is likely to elevate the price floor for coal, with seasonal demand potentially opening up upward price movement [5]. Group 5: Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several stocks based on their potential for rebound and growth, including Yanzhou Coal Mining Company, Jinneng Holding, and China Shenhua Energy [5].
煤炭股普涨 兖矿能源涨4% 中煤能源涨近2%
Ge Long Hui· 2025-10-14 03:58
消息上,浙商证券发布研报称,三季度蒙煤进口量触底回升,供应链贸易利润亦随着价格反弹实现触底 反弹。在国内"反内卷"大环境下,铁水产量维持高位,若煤炭行业继续推进"查超产",有望维持焦煤供 需格局紧平衡,对焦煤价格形成支撑,蒙煤贸易企业利润空间有望修复。推荐嘉友国际,建议关注易大 宗等。 10月14日,港股煤炭股普遍上涨,其中,兖矿能源涨4%,南戈壁、绿领控股涨2.5%,兖煤澳大利亚、 首钢资源涨超2%,中煤能源涨1.7%,中国神华涨超1%。 | 代码 | 名称 | 最新价 | 涨跌幅 ▽ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 01171 | 究矿能源 | 10.970 | 3.98% | | 01878 | 南戈壁 | 2.450 | 2.51% | | 00061 | 绿领控股 | 0.083 | 2.47% | | 03668 | 兖煤澳大利亚 | 27.800 | 2.36% | | 00639 | 首钢资源 | 2.910 | 2.11% | | 01898 | 中煤能源 | 10.160 | 1.70% | | 01088 | 中国神华 | 39.980 | 1.47% | 责 ...