Investment Rating - Buy rating maintained for Yankuang Energy (600188 SH) [1][4] Core Views - Yankuang Energy reported steady Q3 performance with strong overseas growth, maintaining high dividend payout and growth potential [4] - The company is positioned as an international coal leader with clear transformation directions in new energy, new materials, and smart logistics [4] - Increased dividend commitment and mid-term dividend enhance investment value [4] Financial Performance - Q3 2024 revenue reached 343 2 billion yuan, up 5 0% QoQ, with net profit of 38 4 billion yuan, up 0 7% QoQ [4] - 2024 Q1-Q3 revenue was 1066 3 billion yuan, down 21 5% YoY, with net profit of 114 1 billion yuan, down 27 0% YoY [4] - 2024-2026 net profit forecasted at 154 8/179 6/203 2 billion yuan, with EPS of 2 08/2 41/2 73 yuan [4] - Current PE ratio is 6 8x for 2024, 5 9x for 2025, and 5 2x for 2026 [4] Coal Business - 2024 Q1-Q3 coal production and sales were 10581/10259 million tons, up 8 75%/3 45% YoY [4] - Domestic coal production and sales were 7465/6510 million tons, up 7 2%/5 9% YoY [4] - Overseas coal production and sales were 3117/3112 million tons, up 12 7%/16 1% YoY [4] - Q3 2024 overseas coal sales price increased 4 3% QoQ to 835 yuan/ton, with gross margin up 69 5% QoQ [4] Growth Potential - Coal production growth expected with new mines: Wanfu Mine (1 8 million tons) to start in 2024, Wucaiwan Mine (10 million tons) in 2025 [4] - 2024 coal production growth forecasted at 6 0%, making it a rare growth player in the coal sector [4] - Rongxin Chemical project investment of 9 57 billion yuan announced in October 2024 [4] Dividend Policy - Dividend payout ratio for 2023-2025 set at no less than 60%, with cash dividend per share no less than 0 5 yuan [4] - 2024 estimated dividend yield is 5 5% based on current share price [4] - Mid-term dividend payout ratio of 30 5% announced in 2024 interim report [4]

证券研究报告 | 季报点评 gszqdatemark 2024 10 27 年 月 日 兖矿能源（600188.SH） Q3 业绩环比改善，未来成长可期 2024 年 10 月 25 日，公司发布 2024 年三季度业绩公告。24Q1-3 公司实现营 业收入 1066.33 亿元，同比-21.50%；归母净利润 114.05 亿元，同比-26.98%。 24Q3 单季度公司实现营业收入 343.21 亿元，同比-15.46%，环比+5.03%；归母 净利润 38.37 亿元，同比-15.63%，环比+0.66%。 煤炭业务：产销增长&成本大幅下滑，三季度业绩环比改善。24Q1-3 煤炭板块共 实现收入 701.20 亿元，同比-15.9%；成本 388.98 亿元，同比-11.8%；毛利 312.22 亿元，同比-20.6%；毛利率为 44.5%，同比-2.6pct。单三季度，煤炭板块共实现 收入 227.69 亿元，环比+1.2%；成本 113.43 亿元，环比-8.0%；毛利 114.26 亿 元，环比+12.3%；毛利率为 50.2%，环比+5.0pct （1） 产销方面：24Q3 公司实现自产煤产量 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [1]. Core Views - The company reported a slight increase in performance in Q3 2024, with a net profit of 38.37 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 15.63% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 0.66% [1]. - The company plans to invest in an 800,000 tons/year olefin project, with an investment amount of 9.574 billion yuan, aimed at enhancing product value and market competitiveness [1]. - The forecasted net profits for 2024-2026 are 148.34 billion yuan, 164.57 billion yuan, and 177.77 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.48 yuan, 1.64 yuan, and 1.77 yuan [1]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 1066.33 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 21.50%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 114.05 billion yuan, down 26.98% year-on-year [1]. - In Q3 2024, coal production reached 36.73 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 9.8%, and sales were 34.72 million tons, up 4.5% year-on-year [1]. - The average selling price of coal was 655.9 yuan/ton in Q3 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 6.2% [1]. - The company’s coal business generated a gross profit of 114.3 billion yuan in Q3 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 10.1% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 12.4% [1]. - The chemical business achieved a gross profit of 14.88 billion yuan in Q3 2024, down 18.2% year-on-year but up 13.9% quarter-on-quarter [1].

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 公司点评 兖矿能源(600188.SH) 2024 年 10 月 26 日 | --- | --- | |----------------------------------------------------|------------------------------| | 兖矿能源（ 买入（维持） | 600188.SH ）： Q3 | | 所属行业：煤炭 / 煤炭开采 当前价格 ( 元 ) ： 15.89 | 归母环比微增，远期成长空间广 | | 证券分析师 | | | 翟堃 | | 资格编号：s0120523050002 邮箱：zhaikun＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 谢佶圆 邮箱：xiejy＠tebon.com.cn 市场表现 -9% 0% 9% 17% 26% 34% 43% 兖矿能源 沪深300 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------------------|----------------|----------------|--------------| | -17% 2023-10 ...

Investment Rating - Maintains an "Overweight" rating for the company [3][4] Core Views - Q3 performance met expectations, with strong production recovery in Australia driving year-on-year improvement in production and sales [2][3] - Coal prices increased quarter-on-quarter, and costs continued to optimize, leading to higher-than-expected selling prices and gross profit per ton in Q3 [2][3] - The company achieved revenue of RMB 106.633 billion in the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 21.03%, and net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 11.405 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 26.54% [3] - Q3 revenue was RMB 34.321 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 32.22% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 5.03%, with net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 3.837 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 27.81% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 0.66% [3] - The company's EPS forecasts for 2024-2026 were revised upward to RMB 1.60, RMB 1.78, and RMB 1.98, respectively [3] - The target price was raised to RMB 18.31 based on a 2024 average PE of 11.47x for comparable companies [3] Production and Sales - Q3 coal production in Australia increased significantly, driving year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter improvements in production and sales [3] - In the first three quarters, coal production reached 106 million tons, up 8.75% year-on-year, with coal sales of 101 million tons, up 2.18% year-on-year [3] - Q3 coal production was 36.73 million tons, up 9.81% year-on-year and 6.65% quarter-on-quarter, while coal sales were 33.46 million tons, up 0.68% year-on-year but down 8.6% quarter-on-quarter [3] - Self-produced coal sales in Q3 were 31.85 million tons, up 6.87% year-on-year but down 2.48% quarter-on-quarter [3] - The company expects Q4 production to remain flat or slightly increase compared to Q3, supported by continued recovery in Australian production and new capacity releases [3] Coal Prices and Costs - The average coal selling price in the first three quarters was RMB 683 per ton, down RMB 158 per ton year-on-year (-19%), while the cost per ton was RMB 379, down RMB 66 per ton year-on-year (-15%) [3] - Q3 coal selling price was RMB 680 per ton, down RMB 201 year-on-year (-23%) but up RMB 12 quarter-on-quarter (+17%) [3] - Q3 cost per ton was RMB 356, down RMB 107 year-on-year (-23%) and RMB 21.3 quarter-on-quarter (-5.6%), with gross profit per ton reaching RMB 342, up RMB 40 quarter-on-quarter (+13%) [3] Coal Chemical Business - The coal chemical business operated steadily, with significant quarter-on-quarter increases in production and sales in Q3 [3] - In the first three quarters, coal chemical production totaled 6.355 million tons, down 3.14 million tons year-on-year, while sales were 5.697 million tons, down 198,000 tons year-on-year [3] - Q3 coal chemical production was 2.174 million tons, up 22.7% quarter-on-quarter, with sales of 1.95 million tons, up 14.7% quarter-on-quarter [3] - The coal chemical segment generated revenue of RMB 18.708 billion, down 5% year-on-year, with a gross profit of RMB 3.864 billion, flat year-on-year [3] Financial Summary - The company's total market capitalization is RMB 159.533 billion, with a current share price of RMB 15.89 [4] - The 52-week price range is RMB 12.80-27.47 [4] - The company's net debt ratio is 55.65%, with a price-to-book ratio of 2.1x [5] - The company's ROE is expected to be 17.8% in 2024, 18.4% in 2025, and 18.9% in 2026 [8] - The company's EPS is forecasted to be RMB 1.60 in 2024, RMB 1.78 in 2025, and RMB 1.98 in 2026 [8] Valuation and Peers - The company's 2024E PE is 9.95x, compared to the peer average of 11.47x [10] - Comparable companies include Shaanxi Coal (11.14x 2024E PE), Shaanxi Energy (12.13x 2024E PE), China Shenhua (13.57x 2024E PE), and Xinji Energy (9.03x 2024E PE) [10]

请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com1 | --- | --- | |--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking the first coverage of the stock [5]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a leading international coal enterprise with a focus on expanding its production capacity and maintaining a stable high dividend policy [3][5]. - The company has a robust coal production capacity of 231 million tons per year as of the end of 2023, with plans to increase this to 300 million tons over the next 5-10 years [3][18]. - The company benefits from its unique overseas coal assets, particularly in Australia, which contribute significantly to its revenue and profit [4][28]. - The coal chemical segment is expected to recover profitability due to improved industry supply-demand dynamics [4]. - The company has committed to distributing approximately 60% of its net profit as cash dividends from 2023 to 2025, with a minimum dividend of 0.5 RMB per share [4][25]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company, Yanzhou Coal Mining Company Limited, is a major player in the coal industry, with a significant presence in both domestic and international markets [10]. - It has a total coal resource of 4.71 billion tons, ranking it among the top in the industry [10][14]. Production Capacity and Growth - The company has been expanding its production capacity through both acquisitions and organic growth, with an expected increase of 11.8 million tons in capacity by 2025 [3][17]. - The coal production in 2023 reached 132.1 million tons, showing a significant increase from previous years [21][22]. Financial Performance - The company’s revenue is projected to grow, with expected revenues of 148.56 billion RMB, 155.96 billion RMB, and 163.92 billion RMB for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [5]. - The net profit for the same years is forecasted to be 16.36 billion RMB, 19.73 billion RMB, and 21.54 billion RMB [5]. Dividend Policy - The company has a strong commitment to returning value to shareholders through dividends, with a historical payout ratio above 55% [25][26]. International Operations - The company has established a significant presence in Australia, with coal production from its Australian operations accounting for 29% of total production in 2023 [4][23]. - The Australian operations are characterized by a high degree of market pricing flexibility, which enhances profit margins [24].

[Table_MainInfo] 公司研究/煤炭 证券研究报告 兖矿能源（600188）公司半年报点评 2024 年 09 月 11 日 [Table_InvestInfo] 投资评级 优于大市 维持 | --- | |-------------------------------------------------------------| | 股票数据 | | 09 [ Table_StockInfo 月 10 日收盘价（元） ] | | 52 周股价波动（元） | | 总股本 / 流通 A 股（百万股） | | 总市值 / 流通市值（百万元） | | 相关研究 | | [Table_ReportInfo] 《煤炭业务有望以量补价，煤化工盈利现改 | | 善》 2024.05.10 | | 《 23Q4 环比量价双升盈利提升，持续高分红 | | 彰显价值》 2024.04.01 | | 《煤炭业务韧性彰显，煤化工持续改善》 | | 2023.11.04 市场表现 | 兖矿能源 海通综指 -6.65% 2.35% 11.35% 20.35% 29.35% 38.35% 2023/9 2023/12 2024 ...

Investment Rating - Buy (First Coverage) [1] Core Views - Yanzhou Coal Mining is a global energy leader with an integrated coal-based layout, focusing on coal production, deep processing, and comprehensive utilization [3] - The company has a dual-drive strategy for its coal business, with new capacity releases and existing capacity recovery, aiming for a long-term production target of 300 million tons [3] - Yanzhou Coal Mining has significant price elasticity in its coal business, benefiting from both volume and price increases during upward cycles [3] - The company is extending its industrial chain into high-end chemical new materials, with a target of producing over 20 million tons of chemical products in 5-10 years [3] - Yanzhou Coal Mining has optimized its asset structure and demonstrated strong shareholder value through its dividend policy, with a 60% payout ratio of net profit after statutory reserves [3] Market Performance - Yanzhou Coal Mining's stock price has underperformed the CSI 300 index over the past three months, with an absolute decline of 23.70% and a relative decline of 13.04% [2] Financial Highlights - In H1 2024, Yanzhou Coal Mining reported revenue of 72.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 24.07%, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 7.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 31.64% [3] - The company's revenue in 2023 was 150 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 33.3%, and net profit attributable to shareholders was 20.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 39.6% [5] - Yanzhou Coal Mining's EPS for 2024-2026 is forecasted to be 1.49, 1.66, and 1.72 yuan, respectively [4] Coal Business - Yanzhou Coal Mining's coal production capacity is approximately 245 million tons, with new projects like Wanfu Mine and Wucaiwan No. 4 Open-pit Mine expected to contribute additional capacity [3] - The company's coal sales structure is highly elastic, with coal prices increasing by 69% and 36% in 2021 and 2022, respectively [3] - Yanzhou Coal Mining's coal production is expected to reach 140 million tons in 2024, with a long-term target of 300 million tons [3] Chemical Business - Yanzhou Coal Mining has established five high-end chemical parks, with chemical product output reaching 8.59 million tons in 2023 [3] - The company aims to produce over 20 million tons of chemical products annually in the next 5-10 years [3] - Yanzhou Coal Mining is the only company in China with both low-temperature and high-temperature Fischer-Tropsch synthesis technologies, leading in methanol and acetic acid production [37] Dividend Policy - Yanzhou Coal Mining has committed to a dividend payout ratio of approximately 60% of net profit after statutory reserves for 2023-2025 [3] - In 2023, the company distributed a cash dividend of 11.5 billion yuan, with a dividend yield of 10% for A-shares and 16% for H-shares [3] Valuation - Yanzhou Coal Mining's PE ratio for 2024-2026 is forecasted to be 8.83, 7.91, and 7.63 times, respectively [50] - The company's valuation is lower than peers like Shaanxi Coal Industry, China Shenhua, and China Coal Energy [51]

| --- | --- | |------------------------------------|----------------| | | | | | | | | | | [Table_Title] 评级：买入（维持） | | | 市场价格： 14.63 | 元 | | | | | 分析师：杜冲 执业证书编号： | S0740522040001 | | 电话： | | Email：duchong@zts.com.cn 联系人：鲁昊 电话电话： Email：luhao@zts.com.cn | --- | --- | |---------------------------|---------| | | | | [Table_Profit] 基本状况 | | | 总股本 ( 百万股 ) | 10,040 | | 流通股本 ( 百万股 ) | 5,887 | | 市价 ( 元 ) | 14.63 | | 市值 ( 百万元 ) | 146,883 | | 流通市值 ( 百万元 ) | 86,129 | [Table_QuotePic] 股价与行业-市场走势对比 | --- | --- | --- | |-- ...