证 券 研 究 报 告 安监趋严供给收缩，看好旺季煤价修复 2025年11月煤炭行业热点事件复盘及投资策略 证券分析师：严天鹏 A0230524090004 施佳瑜 A0230521040004 闫海 A0230519010004 研究支持： 施佳瑜 A0230521040004 联系人： 施佳瑜 A0230521040004 2025.12.26 主要内容 2 1. 本月行业热点事件复盘：安监环保趋严 2. 供给端：国内产量增速放缓 3. 需求端：工业用煤稳中有升，火电需求阶 段性承压 4. 投资分析意见与风险提示 11月热点事件汇总：安监环保趋严、26年长协政策 www.swsresearch.com 证券研究报告 资料来源：中国煤炭市场网，界面新闻，应急管理部，中国网财经，国家发展改革委，山西省能源局，中国能源网，申万宏源研究3 ◼ 山西省能源局印发关于做好生产煤矿生产能力公告管理工作通知（11 月 4 日）：全面依托省监管信息平 台建立生产要素档案，细化首次 / 变更 / 取消 / 恢复公告分类流程，实行省市分级审查与网上公示机制。 ◼ 大商所拟修订焦煤期货合约与业务细则（11 月 6 日）：标准品强 ...

| 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 600348 | 类阳股份 | 8.17 | 6.10% | 113.91万 | | 9.22 6 | | 000571 | 新大洲A | 5.83 | 3.74% | 60.16万 | | 3.47亿 | | 002128 | 电投能源 | 28.02 | 2.19% | 15.44万 | | 4.31亿 | | 600403 | 大有能源 | 7.21 | 1.55% | 28.31万 | | 2.03亿 | | 600121 | 郑州煤电 | 4.29 | 0.94% | 31.97万 | | 1.37亿 | | 601918 | 新集能源 | 6.74 | 0.75% | 26.19万 | | 1.76亿 | | 600188 | 究矿能源 | 13.43 | 0.67% | 26.69万 | | 3.58亿 | | 601001 | 晋控煤业 | 13.35 | 0.60% | 17.87万 | | 2.38亿 | | 6 ...

格隆汇12月26日｜西部证券研报指出，兖矿能源资源丰富，产销量居全国前列。公司拥有煤炭储量464 亿吨、可开采储量60亿吨，可开采年限超过40 年，公司煤炭主业规模居于全国前列。市场认为煤炭行 业已开始呈现过剩的格局，供需宽松下煤价可能出现较明显下滑；公司分红比例存在不确定性。但是该 行认为在供需基本平衡格局下，预计2025-2027年现货采购价格中枢依旧维持700-800元/吨的位置。公司 业绩稳健，若经营环境未现重大变化，有望继续保持较高分红比例。考虑DDM估值方法，给予公司目 标价16.27元/股。首次覆盖，给予"买入"评级。 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to Yanzhou Coal Mining Company (兖矿能源) with a target price of 16.27 CNY per share [1][5]. Core Insights - The report anticipates that the company's net profit attributable to shareholders will be 9.448 billion, 12.019 billion, and 14.171 billion CNY for the years 2025-2027, with corresponding EPS of 0.94, 1.20, and 1.41 CNY, reflecting a year-on-year growth of -39.61%, 27.21%, and 17.91% respectively [1][20]. - The coal market is expected to maintain a stable price range of 700-800 CNY per ton from 2025 to 2027, despite market concerns about oversupply [2][16]. - The company has substantial coal reserves of 464 billion tons and a recoverable reserve of 60 billion tons, positioning it among the top coal producers in China [2][59]. - The company has a strong track record of cash dividends, with an average payout ratio of 49.82% since its listing, and a projected payout ratio of 53.58% for 2024 [2][20]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 120.47 billion, 127.92 billion, and 131.39 billion CNY for 2025-2027, with growth rates of -13.4%, 6.2%, and 2.7% respectively [3][20]. - The net profit for 2024 is expected to be 15.644 billion CNY, down 23.9% from the previous year, while the 2025 net profit is projected to decline significantly before recovering in subsequent years [3][20]. Business Overview - Yanzhou Coal Mining Company operates as a comprehensive energy operator with a diverse business layout, including mining, high-end chemical materials, and renewable energy [27]. - The coal segment is expected to contribute 66% of total revenue and 83% of total profit in 2024, highlighting its critical role in the company's financial health [12][29]. Market Dynamics - The report indicates that the coal supply-demand balance is expected to remain stable, with domestic coal production projected to stabilize around 38.5-39 billion tons from 2025 to 2027 [55]. - The demand for coal is anticipated to remain robust due to the ongoing reliance on thermal power generation, which still accounts for a significant portion of electricity production in China [48][49].

证券之星消息，12月25日煤炭开采板块较上一交易日下跌0.38%，中煤能源领跌。当日上证指数报收于 3959.62，上涨0.47%。深证成指报收于13531.41，上涨0.33%。煤炭开采板块个股涨跌见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 868109 | 中煤能源 | 12.70 | -1.40% | 16.05万 | 2.05亿 | | 600397 | 江钨装备 | 7.60 | -1.17% | 43.13万 | 3.27亿 | | 601001 | 晋控煤业 | 13.27 | -0.97% | 16.06万 | 2.13亿 | | 600188 | 究矿能源 | 13.34 | -0.97% | 19.62万 | 2.61亿 | | 000571 | 新大洲A | 5.62 | -0.88% | 32.53万 | 1.83亿 | | 600546 | 山煤国际 | 10.08 | -0.59% | 16.62万 | 1.67亿 | | 600121 | 郑州煤电 | ...

行业研究丨深度报告丨煤炭与消费用燃料 [Table_Title] 遇火生辉 ——煤炭行业 2026 年度投资策略 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 2025 年，煤价中枢下滑明显，板块盈利重回过去 10 年低位。不过展望 2026 年，由于煤炭需 求改善可期、反内卷大背景下存量供给产能利用率依旧受限，供需改善下煤价中枢仍有望提升。 考虑到煤价上有顶下有底且供需改善确定性较高，因此红利和攻守兼备标的胜率较高。若需求 较好、煤价改善超预期，则可关注目前低估值、筹码少、盈利分位较低的弹性进攻标的。 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 2 煤炭与消费用燃料 cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title 遇火生辉 2] ——煤炭行业 2026 年度投资策略 [Table_Summary2] 黑金困局：盈利重回 10 年低位 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 肖勇 赵超 叶如祯 SAC：S0490516080003 SAC：S0490519030001 SAC：S0490517070008 ...

兖矿能源鲁南化工 ◎记者 闫婧 传统能源煤炭，因其发电成本较低、稳定性强等特性，仍是中国能源的重要支撑。如何让传统能源持续 释放"新"能？如何让传统能源企业成为高价值上市公司？近日，上海证券报记者走进兖矿能源集团股份 有限公司（简称"兖矿能源"）寻找答案。 兖矿能源是由山东能源集团有限公司控股的境内外上市公司，其前身兖州煤业股份有限公司（简称"兖 州煤业"）成立于1997年，经营区域横跨国内山东、陕西、内蒙古、新疆、甘肃等地，以及澳大利亚、 加拿大、德国等国，主导产业涵盖矿业、高端化工新材料、高端装备制造、智慧物流和新能源等"五大 板块"。 近日，兖矿能源披露2025年三季报，前三季度实现营收1049.57亿元，归母净利润71.20亿元，其中第三 季度归母净利润22.88亿元，环比第二季度（合并西北矿业前）增长17.82%，主要经济指标实现环比增 长。公司生产经营呈现产销量逐季增长、库存水平持续降低、成本控制持续发力的良好势头，叠加煤价 触底上调，为四季度业绩持续回升注入强大动力。 智能化生产 地心深处的"智慧密码" 位于邹城北宿镇境内的南屯煤矿是兖州矿区历史上第一座特大型现代化矿井，享有"鲁煤第一峰"的美 ...

谈古，这片土地是华夏文明的重要发祥地，崇文尚实的基因早已融入齐鲁大地；论今，山东正以"走在 前、挑大梁"的担当，在新旧动能转换、黄河流域生态保护等多重国家战略的交汇点上，以"十大工 程"为锚、绿色低碳高质量发展先行区为帆，向着2035年"经济实力强、人民群众富、文明程度高、治理 效能优、生态环境美"的现代化强省目标稳步航行，"北方地区经济重要增长极"的轮廓愈发清晰。 "十四五"收官的节点上，一组沉甸甸的数据，不仅镌刻着山东的坚实积淀，更锚定了"十五五"规划的奋 进航向——山东GDP连续跨越三个万亿元台阶，即将昂首迈入"十万亿俱乐部"，工业、投资等核心指标 年均增速稳稳跑赢全国；农林牧渔业总产值连年冠绝全国，"齐鲁粮仓"根基稳固；工业经济"头号工 程"纵深推进，制造业规模与实力稳居全国第一梯队，41个工业大类齐备的独特优势，更是全国独一份 的产业底气。这些成果，为"十五五"规划建议中"高质量发展水平显著提升""新质生产力发展走在全国 前列"的目标，筑牢了坚实根基。 【题记】 岳者，山之尊者也。在齐鲁大地，泰岳不仅是地理标识，更是精神图腾，象征着根基之厚、格局之开、 担当之重。 "岳"章者，乐章也。当新质生产力的 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [8] Core Viewpoints - Recent coal prices have been declining, raising concerns about future price trends. The supply side is expected to remain tight due to year-end production cuts and the imposition of export taxes by Indonesia, while demand may improve with the new year's long-term contracts and seasonal increases in consumption [2][7] - The coal price is anticipated to stabilize and recover in the short term due to supply constraints and seasonal demand increases, suggesting a favorable investment opportunity in the coal sector [6][7] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The coal index (Yangtze) increased by 0.36%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.64 percentage points, ranking 19th out of 32 industries [6][22] - As of December 19, the market price for Qinhuangdao thermal coal was 703 CNY/ton, down 42 CNY/ton week-on-week, while the price for coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1740 CNY/ton, up 110 CNY/ton week-on-week [6][16] Supply and Demand Analysis - As of December 18, the daily coal consumption across 25 provinces was 580.2 million tons, a decrease of 2.0% week-on-week and 9.8% year-on-year. The inventory at power plants was 134 million tons, with a usable days count of 23.2 days, an increase of 0.3 days week-on-week [17][36] - The supply side is influenced by production cuts at coal mines and the impact of export taxes from Indonesia, which could tighten supply further [7][17] Price Trends - The price of thermal coal has seen a significant decline, with a monthly drop of 105 CNY/ton (-13%), nearly erasing gains from October [7][43] - The report suggests that while coal prices are currently under pressure, improvements in supply and demand dynamics could provide a floor for prices in the near term [6][7] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on coal sector investments, particularly as the first quarter is typically a period of increased insurance capital inflow, which may enhance the attractiveness of coal stocks [7][12]

股票研究/[Table_Date] 2025.12.22 2025-12-22 煤价有底，预计 26 年开启需求上行周期 煤炭行业周报 本报告导读： 我们认为煤炭板块周期底部已经确认在 25Q2，供需格局已经显现了逆转拐点，下行 风险充分释放。 投资要点： 股 票 研 究 业 跟 踪 报 告 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 行 [table_Authors] [Table_Summary] 投资建议：从板块角度，依然建议重点关注红利核心中国神华、陕 西煤业、中煤能源；继续关注兖矿能源、晋控煤业。 煤价有底，需求是核心。煤炭价格走势的核心驱动逻辑是供需格局。 我们认为当前煤价快速回落的空间已不大，本轮底部预计在 680-700 元/吨。从当前旺季供需看，需求处于近五年中值区间，港口库存近 期已经有下降的趋势，但后续仍要关注天气，但下行空间不大（历 史同期也是暖冬）；11 月煤价回升至 800 元/吨以上，进口量仅环比 微增 5.9%至 4400 万吨，国内供给 11 月恢复到 4.3 亿吨，但同比依 然有降。2025 年 1-5 月抢装达到 200GW 光伏装机对于今冬是最后 一波压力 ...