型及広 煤炭/ 煤炭开采 版费 行业 相关研究 近券研究报 证券分析师 严天鹏 A0230524090004 yantp@swsresearch.com 闫海 A0230519010004 yanhai@swsresearch.com 施佳瑜 A0230521040004 shijy@swsresearch.com 研究支持 施佳瑜 A0230521040004 shijy@swsresearch.com 联系人 施佳瑜 A0230521040004 shijy@swsresearch.com 2026 年 01 月 26 日 节前寒潮频繁扰动,有望支撑 委员 娱炭行业周报（2026.1.17-2026.1.23） 本期投资后了 ● 动力煤方面，截至 1 月 23 日，据中国煤炭市场网，秦皇岛港口 Q4500、Q5000、 Q5500动力煤现货价收报 514、599、685元/吨，环比-8、-9、-10 元/吨。供给端, 据中国煤炭市场网，环渤海四港区本周日均调入量 159.11 万吨，环比上周减少 0.6 万 吨,降幅 0.39%,同比下降 4.12%,产地生产正常,降雪对运输的影响已消除。需求 端,寒潮来 ...

Summary of Conference Call on Coal Industry Industry Overview - The conference focused on the coal industry, specifically discussing coal prices and production trends for 2025 and 2026 [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments Coal Production Data - National raw coal production for 2025 is projected to reach 4.83 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.2% [2]. - December 2025's monthly raw coal production was 440 million tons, showing a year-on-year decline of 1.0% [2]. - Daily average production in December was 14.1 million tons, aligning with expectations [2]. - The production trend indicates a high supply in the first half of 2025, followed by a decrease in the latter half, leading to a constrained overall supply [3]. Predictions for 2026 - The coal production for 2026 is not expected to exceed that of 2025 due to two main factors: 1. Gradual exit of pre-synthetic capacity, particularly in major production areas like Shaanxi [4]. 2. Increased safety regulations starting February 1, 2026, which will raise costs for smaller mines, potentially leading to capacity exits [5][6]. - Estimated capacity exit due to safety regulations could be around 70-80 million tons over two years [5]. Import Coal Trends - December 2025 saw a record high of 58 million tons in coal imports, attributed to: 1. Significant price increases in October and November, prompting coastal power plants to increase imports [6][7]. 2. Year-end contracts leading to concentrated customs declarations [7]. - Uncertainties in Indonesia's export policies, including new tariffs and quotas, may reduce coal exports in 2026 compared to 2025 [8][10]. Price Trends - Current coal prices show a slight decline, with Qinhuangdao 5500 kcal coal priced at 685 RMB, down from 695 RMB [10]. - Inner Mongolia coal prices increased to 1800 RMB, up by 30 RMB from the previous week [10]. - The differentiation between thermal coal and coking coal prices continues, with coking coal showing stronger performance [10][12]. Inventory and Demand - National power plant inventories decreased by 2.7 percentage points week-on-week and 2.9 percentage points year-on-year, indicating strong demand [14]. - The available days of inventory are currently at 17.9 days, down 4.1 days from the previous year [14]. - A cold weather forecast could further tighten inventory levels and boost prices [14][11]. Future Outlook - The coal market is expected to remain stable with a slight upward trend in prices over the next 1-2 weeks, influenced by weather conditions and inventory levels [11][12]. - Post-Spring Festival, the market may shift into a seasonal downturn for thermal coal while coking coal could enter a demand peak [24][25]. Additional Insights - The overall trend in global commodity prices, including oil and natural gas, shows a strong correlation with coal prices, indicating a robust demand environment [17][18]. - The shift towards clean energy sources continues to impact coal demand, with significant growth in renewable energy generation [19][20]. - The coal industry's performance in 2026 will heavily depend on electricity generation growth, which is projected to be around 3% [21][22]. Investment Recommendations - The focus remains on companies with strong dividend yields and low valuations, such as China Shenhua, Zhongmei Energy, and Huaihe Energy, which are expected to perform well in a stable market [27][28]. - Specific stocks like Yanzhou Coal Mining Company are highlighted as key investment opportunities for 2026 due to their strong fundamentals and market positioning [30][31].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for several key companies in the coal industry, including China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Energy, and Xinji Energy, among others [11][14]. Core Insights - The coal market is currently experiencing a weak supply-demand balance, with prices expected to remain stable amidst high inventory levels and fluctuating demand [18][30]. - The report highlights the potential for "black swan" events, particularly from increased demand in the U.S. and reduced production/export from Indonesia, which could significantly impact coal prices [3]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring companies with overseas operations, such as Qinfa and Yancoal Australia, as they may benefit from shifts in the global coal trade [3]. Market Overview - The CITIC Coal Index reached 3743.77 points, up 1.44%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 2.06 percentage points [77]. - The U.S. coal stock BTU reached a new high of $39.95 per share, indicating a strong market performance [2]. - Indonesia is tightening coal supply by closing illegal mining operations, which could further influence global coal prices [2]. Key Areas of Analysis - **Thermal Coal**: Daily consumption is rising, but high inventory levels are leading to a weak market sentiment. Prices are expected to fluctuate as the market approaches the Chinese New Year [18][30]. - **Coking Coal**: The first round of price increases has faced resistance, and market sentiment is weakening. Focus is on pre-holiday stockpiling needs [37][51]. - **Coke**: Price increases have been delayed, and market sentiment is declining, with steel mills maintaining cautious purchasing strategies [51][75]. Key Companies - The report recommends focusing on companies such as China Shenhua, Yancoal Australia, and Qinfa, which are well-positioned to capitalize on market changes [14][12]. - Companies like Peabody (BTU) and Jin控煤业 are also highlighted for their potential growth opportunities [14][12].

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2026 01 25 年 月 日 煤炭开采 BTU 续创新高，海外"三小煤"需重点关注 行情回顾（2026.1.19~2026.1.23）： 中信煤炭指数 3743.77 点，上涨 1.44%，跑赢沪深 300 指数 2.06pct，位列中信 板块涨跌幅榜第 21 位。 本周，美股 BTU 一度涨至 39.95 美元/股，续创 2019 年以来新高。在 25 年 12 月初我们发布的《美国：AI 重塑美国煤炭市场，底部反转，黑金重燃》中指出"重 视 AI 重塑美国煤炭市场，底部反转的投资机会"。 印尼煤炭"供给侧"或正在实施中。据新华财经雅加达 1 月 23 日报道，印度尼西 亚总统普拉博沃·苏比延多 22 日在瑞士达沃斯出席世界经济论坛年会期间表示， 印尼政府已关闭全国约 1000 处非法矿场，并将继续严厉打击自然资源和环境领域 的违法行为，坚决维护法治。据了解，非法采矿活动往往无视安全和环保标准，易 引发洪水和山体滑坡等自然灾害。印尼国家灾害管理署数据显示，去年底苏门答 腊岛发生的洪水和山体滑坡已造成约 1200 人死亡，还有大量居民被迫撤离并安置 在 ...

Investment Rating - The report recommends a "Buy" rating for several companies in the coal mining sector, including China Coal Energy (H+A), Yanzhou Coal Mining (H+A), China Shenhua Energy (H+A), and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry [3][8]. Core Insights - The report highlights the significant increase in U.S. natural gas futures prices due to a polar cold wave and short covering, with prices rising by 25% to $4.875 per million British thermal units, marking the highest settlement price since December 8 [2]. - The report emphasizes the potential for coal consumption to increase as power producers may switch to coal to control fuel costs amid rising natural gas prices [3][8]. Summary by Sections Energy Price Overview - As of January 23, 2026, Brent crude oil futures settled at $65.88 per barrel, up $1.75 (+2.73%) from the previous week, while WTI crude oil futures settled at $61.07 per barrel, up $1.63 (+2.74%) [1]. - Natural gas prices also saw significant increases, with Northeast Asia LNG spot prices at $11.81 per million British thermal units (+4.04%) and U.S. HH natural gas futures at $5.35 per million British thermal units (+72.18%) [1][2]. Investment Recommendations - The report specifically recommends focusing on companies that are performing well, such as China Coal Energy, Yanzhou Coal Mining, China Shenhua Energy, and Shaanxi Coal, as well as companies involved in smart mining like Keda Control and those in recovery like China Qinfa [3][8]. - Additional companies to watch include Peabody (BTU), Jinkong Coal Industry, Lu'an Environmental Energy, and others that may see growth in the future [3]. Coal Market Dynamics - The report notes slight adjustments in coal prices, with Newcastle coal at $111.50 per ton, down $0.05 (-0.04%), while European ARA coal prices increased to $98.50 per ton, up $1.85 (+1.91%) [1][40]. - The overall coal market is expected to benefit from the rising natural gas prices, potentially leading to increased coal consumption in power generation [3].

Investment Rating - The report recommends a "Buy" rating for several companies in the coal mining sector, including China Coal Energy (H+A), Yanzhou Coal Mining (H+A), China Shenhua Energy (H+A), and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry [3][9]. Core Insights - The report highlights the significant increase in U.S. natural gas futures prices due to a polar cold wave and short covering, with prices rising by 25% to $4.875 per million British thermal units, marking the highest settlement price since December 8 [2]. - The report emphasizes the potential for coal consumption to increase as power producers may switch to coal to control fuel costs amid rising natural gas prices [8]. - The report notes that the performance of coal mining companies is expected to improve as annual report disclosures approach, following the principle that "strong performance leads to strong stocks" [3]. Summary by Sections Energy Prices Overview - As of January 23, 2026, Brent crude oil futures settled at $65.88 per barrel, up $1.75 (+2.73%) from the previous week, while WTI crude oil futures settled at $61.07 per barrel, up $1.63 (+2.74%) [1]. - Natural gas prices have also seen significant increases, with Northeast Asia LNG spot prices at $11.81 per million British thermal units, up $0.46 (+4.04%) [1]. Key Companies and Recommendations - The report specifically recommends focusing on companies such as Keda Control Technology, which is advancing in smart mining, and China Qinfa, which is experiencing a turnaround [3]. - Additional companies to watch include Peabody (BTU), Jinkong Coal Industry, Lu'an Environmental Energy, and others that may see growth in the future [3]. Market Dynamics - The report discusses the impact of weather on natural gas production, particularly in the Marcellus shale region, which may face operational challenges due to snow [8]. - It also notes that the U.S. natural gas inventory surplus is rapidly decreasing, with expectations that it will fall below the five-year average by the end of March [8].

重视优质煤化工资产带来的煤炭板块配置机遇 高升：煤炭钢铁行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500524100002 邮箱：gaosheng@cindasc.com 李睿：煤炭钢铁行业分析师 执业编号：S1500525040002 邮箱：lirui@cindasc.com 刘波： 煤炭钢铁行业分析师 执业编号：S1500525070001 邮箱：liubo1@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDASECURITIESCO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲 127 号 金隅大厦 B 座 邮编：100031 [Table_Title] 重视优质煤化工资产带来的煤炭板块配置机 遇 [Table_ReportDate] 2026 年 1 月 25 日 [Table_ReportTime] 2026 年 1 月 25 日 证券研究报告 行业研究-周报 [Table_ReportType] 行业周报 [Table_StockAndRank] 煤炭开采 投资评级 看好 上次评级 看好 [Table_Summary] 本期内容提要: ◆ 我们认为，当前正处在煤炭经济新一轮周期上行的初期，基本面、政策 请阅读最 ...

2026 年 01 月 25 日 行业研究 评级：推荐(维持) [Table_Title] 供需边际改善，煤价具备支撑 ——煤炭开采行业周报 最近一年走势 | 行业相对表现 | | 2026/01/23 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | 煤炭开采 | 2.4% | -4.4% | 6.5% | | 沪深 300 | 1.8% | 2.1% | 23.6% | 相关报告 《煤炭开采行业动态研究：2025Q4 煤炭基金重仓 股持仓占比 0.36%，板块景气提升、注重底部配置 价值（推荐）*煤炭开采*陈晨》——2026-01-24 《煤炭开采行业 12 月数据全面解读：生产降、进 口升，火电依旧疲弱（推荐）*煤炭开采*陈晨》— —2026-01-19 《煤炭开采行业周报：寒潮来临叠加节前停产预 期，煤价仍有支撑（推荐）*煤炭开采*陈晨》—— 2026-01-18 《煤炭开采行业周报：钢厂复产叠加冬储补库，焦 煤价格存在支撑（推荐）*煤炭开采*陈晨》—— 2026-01-11 《炭火暖意，天平微倾 ——煤炭行业 2026 年投资 策略（推荐） ...

Core Insights - The coal industry is experiencing a slight increase in coking coal prices while thermal coal inventories continue to decline, indicating a potential stabilization in prices moving forward [7][85][87]. Market Dynamics - Thermal coal prices have shown a slight decrease, with the CCI5500 thermal coal index reported at 691 RMB/ton, down 11 RMB/ton week-on-week [13][86]. - The production capacity utilization rate for thermal coal mines is at 89.8%, reflecting a 1.2 percentage point increase week-on-week [23]. - Inventory levels at major ports have decreased, with a reported 6.939 million tons, down 2.4% week-on-week [23][30]. Industry Outlook - The coal industry is expected to see a significant improvement in profitability in 2026, with a projected total profit of 2.97 billion RMB in 2025, down 47% year-on-year [7][87]. - The supply side is anticipated to experience a substantial decrease in growth rates compared to previous years, with coal prices expected to gradually rise [7][87]. - The long-term contracts for coal supply in 2026 are expected to remain stable, with stricter safety regulations likely to limit production [88][89]. Key Companies - Notable companies with stable profit distributions include China Shenhua, Yanzhou Coal, and Shaanxi Coal, which are expected to benefit from the anticipated demand recovery and supply constraints [7][87]. - Companies with high elasticity benefiting from improved demand expectations include Huabei Mining and Shanxi Coking Coal [7][87]. - Long-term growth companies identified include Huayang Co., New Energy, and Baofeng Energy, which are expected to show significant growth potential [7][87].

供给收紧叠加补库需求仍存，煤价有望趋稳反弹 glmszqdatemark 重点公司盈利预测、估值与评级 | 代码 | 简称 | 股价 | | EPS（元） | | | PE（X） | | 评级 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | （元） | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | | | 601001 | 晋控煤业 | 14.66 | 1.68 | 1.01 | 1.32 | 9 | 15 | 11 | 推荐 | | 600546 | 山煤国际 | 10.71 | 1.14 | 0.67 | 1.17 | 9 | 16 | 9 | 推荐 | | 601699 | 潞安环能 | 12.95 | 0.82 | 0.74 | 1.01 | 16 | 17 | 13 | 推荐 | | 600348 | 华阳股份 | 9.18 | 0.62 | 0.47 | 0.67 | 15 | 20 | 14 | 推荐 | | 600188 | 兖矿能源 | 13.85 | ...