浙商证券研报指出，兖矿能源背靠山能集团，目标成为国际一流清洁能源引领示范企业。规划未来5-10 年产业布局矿业、高端化工新材料、新能源、高端装备制造、智慧物流五大主导产业，建设国际一流清 洁能源引领示范企业。公司资源量超460亿吨，分布广泛，种类齐全。通过扩产和并购，产能稳步增 长，近五年通过收购年产能增加超过8000万吨。在建及规划煤矿项目为产能增长提供动能，预计超过 6000万吨/年。煤炭化工营收和毛利整体呈增长趋势，2025年前三季度营收和毛利分别为185.3亿元和 48.8亿元，仍处于较高水平。化工业务毛利率整体平稳。公司立足国内，放眼全球，外延并购，在建可 期，产能迈向三亿吨。正值行业周期底部反转，量价齐升，成长显著，首次覆盖给予"买入"评级。 ...

截至9月30日，兖矿能源股东户数13.42万，较上期减少9.15%；人均流通股0股，较上期增加0.00%。 2025年1月-9月，兖矿能源实现营业收入1049.57亿元，同比减少1.57%；归母净利润71.20亿元，同比减 少37.57%。 分红方面，兖矿能源A股上市后累计派现868.46亿元。近三年，累计派现423.77亿元。 机构持仓方面，截止2025年9月30日，兖矿能源十大流通股东中，香港中央结算有限公司位居第三大流 通股东，持股7508.97万股，相比上期减少3453.30万股。国泰中证煤炭ETF（515220）位居第四大流通 股东，持股7086.78万股，相比上期增加4308.37万股。华泰柏瑞沪深300ETF（510300）位居第五大流通 股东，持股3051.26万股，相比上期减少144.44万股。华泰柏瑞上证红利ETF（510880）位居第六大流通 股东，持股2800.39万股，相比上期增加156.93万股。易方达沪深300ETF（510310）位居第七大流通股 东，持股2201.24万股，相比上期减少70.49万股。景顺长城景盛双息收益债券A类（002065）位居第九 大流通股东，持股169 ...

华源证券主要观点如下： 智通财经APP获悉，华源证券发布研报称，2025年Q3，煤炭板块在"查超产"政策支撑下价格企稳回升， 动力煤企业受益于长协履约改善与煤电联营，盈利环比提升；炼焦煤企业因长协定价滞后，盈利表现相 对承压。Q4冬季预计采暖需求增长与供给端政策持续偏紧影响下有望支撑煤价保持强势，行业整体业 绩有望延续改善趋势。 动力煤受益量稳价升本降及煤电一体化，Q4炼焦煤企业端价格有望显著回升 仅从自产煤单位盈利情况看，煤价传导滞后是普遍性影响，阶段性成本上升是个别影响，这两大因素单 独或共同影响了煤企2025Q3的自产煤单位毛利，导致多数煤企的自产煤业务单位毛利环比下降。同 时，动力煤企依靠稳定的产量和成本压降，并通过煤电联营贡献电力盈利，使得整体的盈利情况依然环 比上升。炼焦煤企的季度长协机制，使其Q2、Q3均价大体持平，并未完全体现出炼焦煤期货端价格大 幅回升的积极作用，但随着现货中枢更长期保持相对高位，炼焦煤季度长协有望在四季度迎来进一步上 涨。预计随着煤价传导落地，煤企2025Q4业绩将延续改善趋势。 供紧需增，冬季煤价有望保持强势 板块Q3收入环比积极，动力煤企归母净利润环比增速优于炼焦煤企 ...

投资建议：周期与红利双逻辑，四主线布局 煤炭股双逻辑之一：周期弹性。当前动力煤和炼焦煤价格仍处于历史低位，为反弹提供 了空间。随着供给端"查超产"政策推动产量收缩，以及需求端进入取暖旺季，煤炭供需基本 面有望持续改善，两类煤种价格均具备向上弹性。其中，动力煤有长协机制修复和"煤和火 电企业盈利均分"的逻辑支撑；而炼焦煤因市场化程度更高，对供需变化更敏感，可能展现 出更大的价格弹性。煤炭股双逻辑之二：稳健红利。多数煤企依然保持了高分红的意愿，中 报仍有6家上市煤企发布中期分红方案（中国神华/山西焦煤/陕西煤业/上海能源/兖矿能源/中 煤能源）。资本市场在全球政经高度不确定以及国内稳经济的预期下，投资行为存在情绪上 的脉冲，煤炭板块具备周期与红利的双重属性，当前煤炭持仓低位，基本面已到拐点右侧， 已到布局时点。四主线精选煤炭个股将受益：主线一，周期逻辑：动力煤的【晋控煤业、兖 矿能源】，冶金煤的【平煤股份、淮北矿业、潞安环能】；主线二，红利逻辑：【中国神 华、中煤能源（分红潜力）、陕西煤业】；主线三，多元化铝弹性：【神火股份、电投能 源】；主线四，成长逻辑：【新集能源、广汇能源】。 动力煤方面：动力煤价格小涨，截 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the coal mining industry [1] Core Views - The coal mining industry is experiencing a tightening supply due to reduced production and imports, with October coal production down 2.3% year-on-year, and imports down 9.76% [6][25] - Demand has significantly improved in October, primarily driven by increased coal consumption in thermal power and chemical industries, while the construction and metallurgy sectors have shown a decline [6][26] - The report highlights a notable increase in coal prices, with port prices rising by 56 yuan/ton in October, reflecting the improved supply-demand dynamics [10][11] Supply Side Summary - Coal production in October was 407 million tons, a decrease of 2.3% year-on-year, with daily production averaging 13.12 million tons, down 596,000 tons from the previous month [4][19] - The decline in production is attributed to maintenance, adverse weather, and stricter safety checks [6][19] - Coal imports in October were 41.74 million tons, down 9.76% year-on-year, with a cumulative import of 388 million tons from January to October, reflecting an 11.0% decrease [25][26] Demand Side Summary - Thermal power generation increased by 7.3% year-on-year in October, reversing a decline from September [6][26] - The total industrial electricity generation in October was 800.2 billion kWh, up 7.9% year-on-year, with a daily average of 25.81 billion kWh [5][18] - Chemical industry coal consumption rose significantly, with a year-on-year increase of 35.38% in October [10][26] Inventory Summary - By the end of October, coal inventories at production enterprises decreased by 135,000 tons, while inventories at northern ports increased by 432,000 tons [10][11] - The report notes that inland power plants have increased their coal inventories, indicating a trend towards replenishment as winter approaches [10][11] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on robust coal companies such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and China Coal Energy, which exhibit strong cash flow and profitability [10][12] - It emphasizes the value attributes of the coal sector, particularly in light of the current market conditions and potential for price increases [10][11]

2025 年 11 月 16 日 行业研究 评级：推荐(维持) | 研究所： | | --- | | 证券分析师： | | 陈晨 S0350522110007 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | chenc09@ghzq.com.cn | | 联系人 | ： | 张益 S0350124100016 | | | | zhangy33@ghzq.com.cn | | 联系人 | ： | 徐萌 S0350125070001 | | | | xum02@ghzq.com.cn | [Table_Title] 静待旺季日耗提升，后续煤价依然稳中偏强 ——煤炭开采行业周报 最近一年走势 | 行业相对表现 | | 2025/11/14 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | 煤炭开采 | 6.0% | 13.0% | 3.7% | | 沪深 300 | 2.0% | 10.9% | 14.6% | 相关报告 《煤炭开采行业周报：煤价强势上涨，本周突破 800 元/吨（推荐）*煤炭开采*陈晨》——2025-11-10 《煤炭开采行业 2 ...

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, Yanzhou Coal Mining Company Limited, for the first time [4]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a coal production target of 300 million tons by 2030, supported by ongoing capacity expansion and acquisitions [2][4]. - The chemical products segment is projected to see steady growth, with total production expected to reach 8.702 million tons in 2024, aiming to exceed 9 million tons in the future [2]. - The company has a stable dividend history and is expected to continue providing high returns to shareholders [2]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Yanzhou Coal Mining Company Limited, established in September 1997, is primarily engaged in coal mining and sales, coal chemical product production and sales, logistics, equipment manufacturing, and power generation [13][19]. - The company is backed by Shandong Energy Group, which holds a 52.84% stake [14][15]. Business Analysis Coal Business: Rich Reserves and Capacity Expansion - The company has a total coal resource of over 460 billion tons, with significant reserves in Shandong, Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang, and Australia [20][25]. - The coal production capacity is steadily increasing, with a current capacity of approximately 285 million tons per year, and plans to reach 300 million tons by 2026 [28][34]. Chemical Business: Capacity Expansion and Focus on High-End Products - The chemical segment is expanding, with a focus on high-end products, and is expected to produce 8.702 million tons in 2024 [2][19]. - The company aims to enhance its chemical product offerings and increase production capacity to over 20 million tons annually in the future [23][24]. Investment Value Analysis - The company has a strong international presence, reducing reliance on a single market, and is actively pursuing acquisitions to enhance its resource base [2][8]. - The projected net profits for 2025-2027 are estimated at 10.02 billion, 15.23 billion, and 18.05 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 14.7, 9.7, and 8.1 [2][4]. Financial Summary - The company reported a revenue of 139.12 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year decrease of 7.27% [4]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to decrease by 28.37% in 2025, followed by a significant recovery in subsequent years [4].

动力煤上穿 800 元之上的第四目标，煤价逻辑逐一兑现 ——行业周报 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -29% -19% -10% 0% 10% 19% 29% 2024-11 2025-03 2025-07 煤炭 沪深300 相关研究报告 《动力煤价上破 800 元，炼焦煤联动 走强—行业周报》-2025.11.9 《动力煤价格如期进入上穿过程，炼 焦煤联动修复—行业周报》-2025.11.2 《煤电盈利均分 750 元之后，煤价正 在 经 历 惯 性 上 穿 — 行 业 周 报 》- 2025.10.26 张绪成（分析师） 程镱（分析师） zhangxucheng@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790520020003 chengyi@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790525090001 本周要闻回顾：动力煤上穿 800 元之上的第四目标，煤价逻辑逐一兑现 动力煤方面：动力煤价格小涨，截至 11 月 14 日，秦港 Q5500 动力煤平仓价为 834 元/吨，环比小涨，广州港价格指标已达到 880 元，已经完成我们提示的煤电盈利 均分的 750 元价格目标，此时正在经历我们所说的 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Positive" [1] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the coal consumption is approaching a turning point, with a clear direction and potential for growth. The recent cold wave is expected to increase coal demand as power plants will need to procure more coal, leading to a potential rise in coal prices [6][29] - The report highlights that the average daily coal sales from monitored enterprises increased by 2.7% week-on-week but decreased by 2.4% year-on-year, indicating a mixed demand scenario [2] - The report suggests that the supply-demand balance is expected to gradually improve in the fourth quarter, with coal prices likely to rise steadily [6][29] Summary by Sections Coal Market Performance - The coal sector underperformed slightly, with a decline of 0.78% compared to a 1.08% drop in the CSI 300 index, outperforming it by 0.3 percentage points [2] - The average daily coal production from monitored enterprises was 752 million tons, a 2% increase week-on-week but a 2.2% decrease year-on-year [2] Price Trends - The price of thermal coal (Q5500K) in the Bohai Rim region was 698 RMB/ton, up 0.58% week-on-week, while the import price index for thermal coal was 944 RMB/ton, up 6.19% week-on-week [3] - Coking coal prices also saw increases, with the main coking coal price at 1830 RMB/ton, up 1.7% week-on-week [4] Inventory Levels - Total coal inventory (including port storage) was 24.3 million tons, a 2.1% increase week-on-week but a 19.5% decrease year-on-year [2][8] - The report notes that the overall coal inventory in society was 17.68 million tons, with a week-on-week increase of 374,000 tons but a year-on-year decrease of 873,000 tons [3][28] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on flexible thermal coal companies and those in turnaround situations in coking coal and coke sectors. Key companies to watch include China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and Yanzhou Coal Mining [6][29]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and is maintained [8] Core Views - The report indicates that the upward trend in thermal coal prices is expected to continue due to supply constraints from the November central safety production assessments and improving demand as winter approaches, with prices likely to exceed expectations [5][6] - For coking coal, despite short-term demand pressure from the off-season, the current low inventory and tight supply suggest significant price recovery potential if pro-cyclical policies are reintroduced globally [5][6] - The report emphasizes the importance of recognizing the bottom reversal opportunities in the coal sector, supported by low price-to-book ratios and low holdings [6] Summary by Sections Thermal Coal - As of November 14, the market price for thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port is 834 RMB/ton, a week-on-week increase of 17 RMB/ton. The report anticipates continued price increases due to tight supply and low port inventories, alongside seasonal demand improvements [5][13] - The report notes that the inventory at the northern three ports is 12.58 million tons, down 12% year-on-year, while power plant inventories are 130 million tons, down 1.5% year-on-year, with usable days at 25.9 days, up 1.2 days year-on-year [6][14] Coking Coal - The price for main coking coal at Jingtang Port remains stable at 1860 RMB/ton as of November 14. The report highlights that while steel mill demand is currently weak, the supply situation for coking coal is tight, indicating potential for price elasticity [5][6] - The report also mentions that the average daily pig iron production at sample steel mills is 2.3688 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 0.4% [15] Valuation and Market Dynamics - The report suggests that the current price-to-book ratios for coking coal and major thermal coal companies are at the lower third percentile since 2016, indicating undervaluation compared to other cyclical resource sectors [6] - The report recommends a mixed strategy for investment, highlighting companies like Yanzhou Coal Mining Company and China Shenhua Energy as stable leaders, while also suggesting more aggressive plays in companies like Lu'an Environmental Energy and Jinneng Holding Group [6][27]