摘要 "十五五"定位重塑：煤炭由"主体能源"转向"兜底保障+调节性电 源"，2026-2030 年间将实现消费达峰，2030 年消费占比预计降至 45%。 供给弹性枯竭：国内产能因安全考核优先及前期透支已无增产空间；进 口端受印尼、澳洲产能限制及资源国保供政策影响，5 亿吨规模难有突 破。 需求结构转型：房地产拉动的建材耗煤下滑，但煤化工及钢铁出口带动 非电需求边际改善，需求逻辑由国内主导转向全球定价引导。 价格拐点确立：4 月起煤炭将进入上行通道，预计 4-6 月 5,500 大卡煤 价将突破 1,000 元/吨，核心支撑在于市场煤占比仅 20%-30%的极度稀 缺性。 投资策略：弹性优先，首选动力煤。兖矿能源（市场煤占比>70%）、 广汇能源（煤+化工+LNG 三重弹性）、中煤能源（稀缺煤化工弹性） 为核心标的。 风险提示：需关注"十五五"期间风电装机（年均 120GW 目标）及水 电出力超预期对煤价节奏的扰动，以及全球经济衰退导致的系统性需求 下滑。 Q&A 在"十五五"规划纲要的背景下，能源战略定位相较于"十四五"时期发生了 哪些核心变化？ "十五五"规划纲要将能源战略从"十四五"时期的保障供应角色， ...

[Table_Title] 煤炭行业周报（2026 年第 10 期） [Table_Page] 投资策略周报|煤炭开采 两会明确煤炭基础保障定位，地缘冲突升级，价格弹性可期 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： 证券研究报告 [Table_Grade] 行业评级 买入 前次评级 买入 报告日期 2026-03-15 [Table_PicQuote] 相对市场表现 [分析师： Table_Author]沈涛 SAC 执证号：S0260523030001 SFC CE No. AUS961 010-59136686 shentao@gf.com.cn 分析师： 安鹏 SAC 执证号：S0260512030008 SFC CE No. BNW176 021-38003693 anpeng@gf.com.cn 分析师： 宋炜 SAC 执证号：S0260518050002 SFC CE No. BMV636 021-38003691 songwei@gf.com.cn [Table_ 相关研究： DocReport] -14% -4% 5% 15% 24% 34% 03/25 05/25 08/25 10/25 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业专题 | 煤炭 能源替代下的煤炭产业链机会 ——行业专题报告 投资要点 根据国际能源署（IEA），由于中东地区的持续冲突，海湾国家不得不将石油产 量削减至少 1000 万桶/日。考虑原油供应增量有限，按照等热值替代，全球年化 需要约 10 亿吨原煤（假设全部用煤炭来替代），按照中国能源消费占全球比例 27.9%，按此比例增产约需增产 3 亿吨煤炭。 煤油价格比值处于历史低位，能源替代具有经济性 2020 年以来，原油、天然气、煤炭价格波动较大，当前动力煤/原油单位热值处 于低位。2026 年初至 3 月 13 日，动力煤/原油单位热值价格比为 0.35 倍，为 2019 年以来最低水平。 煤炭替代油气的路径 1、 电力和热力：燃煤代替天然气 天然气是全球主要发电能源之一，欧美国家天然气发电占比高，当天然气价格上 涨，基于可负担性，燃煤机组可能会重启带动煤炭需求上涨。供暖方面，海外以 天然气和电力为主，当天然气涨价时，煤炭作为替代的廉价能源，其需求有望大 幅上涨。 2、 煤化工：煤炭代替原油 煤化工产品包括煤制油、煤制气、煤制烯烃、煤制甲醇、煤制乙二醇等产品。油 煤价差是煤化工利润水平的重 ...

丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨行业周报丨煤炭与消费用燃料 [Table_Title] 从油煤比、气煤比看煤价上涨空间？ 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 若从油煤比、气煤比出发，如何看煤价上涨空间？我们认为，根据 2025 年以来 2.3 的油煤比 和气煤比关系，计算合理国内动力煤价格分别应在 1010 元/吨和 966 元/吨，平均 988 元/吨， 与最新（3 月 13 日）国内煤价 729 元/吨相比高出 36%。可见在美伊冲突下，近期国内煤价表 现基本未反映海外油气价格上涨带来的传导效应，若油气价格保持高位，国内煤价存在较大补 涨空间。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] SAC：S0490516080003 SAC：S0490519030001 SAC：S0490517070008 SAC：S0490522090003 SAC：S0490524120007 SFC：BUT918 SFC：BUY139 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 肖勇 赵超 叶如祯 庄越 韦思宇 煤炭与消费用燃料 cjzqdt11111 [Table_ ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the coal mining industry [1] Core Views - The coal mining industry is experiencing a supply-demand imbalance, with domestic coal prices under pressure due to increased import costs and geopolitical tensions affecting shipping rates [4][7] - The report highlights that while the coal price has shown a downward trend recently, there is potential for recovery driven by high international energy prices and domestic demand in the coming months [7][14] Summary by Sections 1. Thermal Coal - As of March 13, the price of thermal coal at northern ports is 729 RMB/ton, a decrease of 14 RMB/ton week-on-week [14] - Production capacity utilization in the western regions increased by 4.72 percentage points week-on-week, attributed to the resumption of operations in small and medium-sized coal mines [14] - The daily consumption of the six major power plants increased by 47,000 tons week-on-week [14] - The price difference between domestic and Australian thermal coal has widened to -42 RMB/ton as of March 12 [14] 2. Coking Coal - The capacity utilization rate for coking coal mines increased by 1.16 percentage points to 85.7% week-on-week [5] - The average daily crossing volume at Ganqimaodu port was 1,378 cars, an increase of 50 cars week-on-week [5] - The price of main coking coal at ports is 1,570 RMB/ton, down 10 RMB/ton week-on-week [41] 3. Coke - The production capacity utilization rate for coking plants increased by 0.04 percentage points to 74.1% week-on-week [6] - The average profit per ton of coke has decreased to -3 RMB/ton, down 20 RMB/ton week-on-week [65] - The inventory of independent coking plants decreased week-on-week, indicating improved supply-demand dynamics [62] 4. Anthracite - The price of anthracite coal remains stable, with no significant changes reported [82] 5. Key Companies and Profit Forecasts - The report identifies several key companies in the coal mining sector, including China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and Yanzhou Coal Mining Company, recommending a "Buy" rating for these stocks based on their strong fundamentals and growth potential [9]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [7] Core Insights - The ongoing conflicts in the Middle East have led Gulf countries to reduce oil production by at least 10 million barrels per day, necessitating an annual increase of approximately 1 billion tons of coal globally to replace oil, with China needing to increase coal production by about 300 million tons [1][12] - The price ratio of thermal coal to crude oil is at a historical low, making coal a more economically viable alternative to oil and gas [2][13] - The coal industry is expected to benefit significantly from the energy crisis, with increased demand for coal in power generation and coal chemical industries as a substitute for natural gas and crude oil [4][30] Summary by Sections 1. Oil Supply Reduction - The reduction of 10 million barrels per day in oil supply corresponds to a need for 1 billion tons of coal annually, with China accounting for 27.9% of global energy consumption, thus requiring an increase of about 300 million tons of coal [1][12] 2. Economic Viability of Coal - The price ratio of thermal coal to crude oil is currently at 0.35, the lowest since 2019, indicating that coal is becoming a more cost-effective alternative as oil prices rise [2][13] 3. Pathways for Coal Substitution - Coal can replace natural gas in electricity and heating, especially in regions where natural gas prices are high, leading to increased coal demand [14] - In the coal chemical sector, the widening oil-coal price gap, currently at 93.67 yuan/GJ, enhances the profitability of coal chemical products [3][22] 4. Beneficiaries of the Coal Industry - The coal industry is expected to see increased production and demand, particularly in regions like Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi, and Xinjiang, which are projected to contribute significantly to the 300 million tons increase in coal production [4][30] 5. Investment Recommendations - Companies to focus on include major coal producers like China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and coal chemical companies such as Yancoal and Huadian Energy, as well as coal transportation firms like Datong Railway and Guanghui Logistics [5][30]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The Middle East situation is catalyzing oil prices, which is expected to continuously benefit the coal chemical industry [3] - The price of thermal coal has slightly decreased, with the Qinhuangdao Q5500 thermal coal closing price at 729 CNY/ton as of March 13, down 14 CNY/ton from the previous week [3] - The report anticipates that the price of thermal coal will experience a slight increase post-holiday due to improved market sentiment and increased demand for replenishment [3] - The report highlights that the ongoing Middle East situation is a significant variable affecting coal prices, with expectations of oil prices remaining above 90 USD [3] Summary by Relevant Sections Investment Logic - The prices of thermal coal and coking coal are at the right side of the turning point, with thermal coal being a policy-driven commodity. The price recovery process is expected to follow four stages: repairing central and local long-term contracts, reaching the coal-electricity profit-sharing line, and exceeding the breakeven point for power plants [5][16] - The ideal target for coal prices is projected to be around 750 CNY/ton for 2025, with a potential upper limit of 860 CNY/ton [5][16] - Coking coal prices are more influenced by supply and demand fundamentals, with target prices based on the ratio of coking coal to thermal coal prices [5][16] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a dual logic of cycles and dividends for coal stocks, indicating that both thermal and coking coal prices are at historical lows, providing room for rebound [6][17] - Four main lines for selecting coal stocks are proposed: 1. Cycle logic: Jin控煤业, 兖矿能源 for thermal coal; 平煤股份, 淮北矿业, 潞安环能 for metallurgical coal 2. Dividend logic: 中国神华, 中煤能源, 陕西煤业 3. Diversified aluminum elasticity: 神火股份, 电投能源 4. Growth logic: 新集能源, 广汇能源 [6][17] Key Market Indicators - The coal index increased by 5.03%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 4.85 percentage points [9][26] - The average PE ratio for the coal sector is 19.23, and the PB ratio is 1.63, ranking low among all A-share industries [30][32]

股 票 研 究 煤价淡季判断难深跌，夏季有望跟随海外弹性 [Table_Industry] 煤炭 煤炭行业周报 [姓名table_Authors] 电话 邮箱 登记编号 黄涛(分析师) 021-38674879 huangtao@gtht.com S0880515090001 邓铖琦(分析师) 010-83939825 dengchengqi@gtht.com S0880523050003 本报告导读： 煤价淡季判断难深跌，夏季有望跟随海外弹性，战略性看多未来 5-10 年的能源大周 期。 投资要点： [Table_Report] 相关报告 煤炭《否极泰来，开启新一轮上行周期》 2026.03.13 煤炭《地缘冲突或平抑淡季煤价下行波动，抬升 均价》2026.03.08 煤炭《【国泰海通煤炭数据库】行业数据更新 20260308》2026.03.08 煤炭《地缘冲突叠加印尼减产乐观预期，煤炭凸 显避险属性》2026.03.01 煤炭《国泰海通煤炭行业基本面数据库大全 20260301》2026.03.01 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2026.03.15 告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 行 业 ...

股 票 研 究 煤价淡季判断难深跌，夏季有望跟随海外弹性 [Table_Industry] 煤炭 煤炭行业周报 [姓名table_Authors] 电话 邮箱 登记编号 黄涛(分析师) 021-38674879 huangtao@gtht.com S0880515090001 邓铖琦(分析师) 010-83939825 dengchengqi@gtht.com S0880523050003 本报告导读： 煤价淡季判断难深跌，夏季有望跟随海外弹性，战略性看多未来 5-10 年的能源大周 期。 投资要点： [Table_Report] 相关报告 煤炭《否极泰来，开启新一轮上行周期》 2026.03.13 煤炭《地缘冲突或平抑淡季煤价下行波动，抬升 均价》2026.03.08 煤炭《【国泰海通煤炭数据库】行业数据更新 20260308》2026.03.08 煤炭《地缘冲突叠加印尼减产乐观预期，煤炭凸 显避险属性》2026.03.01 煤炭《国泰海通煤炭行业基本面数据库大全 20260301》2026.03.01 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2026.03.15 告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 行 业 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal mining industry is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The current phase is seen as the beginning of a new upward cycle in the coal economy, with a resonance between fundamentals and policies, making it an opportune time to invest in the coal sector [11][12] - The coal market is expected to face downward pressure in the short term due to seasonal consumption declines and increased supply, but the downside for coal prices is considered limited due to geopolitical tensions and high import costs [11][12] - The report emphasizes the importance of high-quality coal companies with strong cash flow, high returns on equity, and attractive dividend yields, suggesting that coal assets remain undervalued and have potential for valuation uplift [11][12] Summary by Sections 1. Coal Price Tracking - As of March 14, the market price for Qinhuangdao port thermal coal (Q5500) is 731 CNY/ton, down 14 CNY/ton week-on-week [31] - The international thermal coal price at Newcastle (NEWC5500) is 88.5 USD/ton, down 1.0 USD/ton week-on-week [31] - The price for coking coal at Jingtang port is 1590 CNY/ton, down 20 CNY/ton week-on-week [33] 2. Coal Supply and Demand Tracking - The capacity utilization rate for sample thermal coal mines is 90.6%, an increase of 1.8 percentage points week-on-week [50] - The daily coal consumption in inland provinces has decreased by 54.4 thousand tons/day, a decline of 14.88% week-on-week [11][12] - The steel furnace operating rate is 78.34%, an increase of 0.63 percentage points week-on-week [11] 3. Coal Inventory Situation - Coastal provinces' coal inventory has increased by 359,000 tons week-on-week, while inland provinces' coal inventory has decreased by 2.237 million tons [11] - The available days of coal in coastal provinces have decreased by 0.5 days week-on-week [11] 4. Market Performance - The coal sector has outperformed the broader market, with a weekly increase of 5.42% compared to a 0.19% increase in the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index [15][18] - Key stocks in the coal sector include China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and Yanzhou Coal Mining Company, which are highlighted for their stable operations and strong performance [13]