本周全球能源价格回顾。截至 2026 年 3 月 13 日，原油价格方面，布伦特原 油期货结算价为 103.14 美元/桶，较上周上涨 10.45 美元/桶（+11.27%）； WTI 原油期货结算价为 98.71 美元/桶，较上周上涨 7.81 美元/桶（+8.59%）。 天然气价格方面，东北亚 LNG 现货到岸价为 20.01 美元/百万英热，较上周 下跌 1.17 美元/百万英热（-5.50%）；荷兰 TTF 天然气期货结算价 49.18 欧 元/兆瓦时，较上周下跌 3.04 欧元/兆瓦时（-5.82%）；美国 HH 天然气期货 结算价为 3.09 美元/百万英热，较上周下跌 0.09 美元/百万英热（-2.99%）。 煤炭价格方面，欧洲 ARA 港口煤炭（6000K）到岸价 124.00 美元/吨，较上 周下降 5.50 美元/吨（-4.25%）；纽卡斯尔港口煤炭（6000K）FOB 价 138.00 美元/吨，较上周上涨 4.60 美元/吨（+3.45%）；IPE 南非理查兹湾煤炭期货 结算价 111.10 美元/吨，较上周下跌 1.90 美元/吨（-1.68%）。 近期，受中东地缘局势持续紧张与俄 ...

Summary of Coal Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the coal industry in the context of the "14th Five-Year Plan" and the upcoming "15th Five-Year Plan" [1][2][3] Key Points and Arguments Transition in Coal Positioning - The "15th Five-Year Plan" redefines coal from being the "main energy source" to a role of "guarantee and regulatory power" [1][2] - Coal consumption is expected to peak between 2026 and 2030, with its share projected to drop to 45% by 2030 [1][3] Supply Constraints - Domestic coal production capacity is exhausted due to safety assessments and prior over-extraction, limiting any potential increase in output [1][4] - Import capacity is also restricted, with a stable import volume of around 500 million tons expected, influenced by policies in resource-rich countries [1][5] Demand Structure Changes - Demand for coal in construction materials is declining, while coal chemical and steel exports are driving marginal improvements in non-electric demand [1][6] - The demand logic is shifting from domestic dominance to global pricing guidance [1][6] Price Trends - Coal prices are expected to enter an upward trend starting in April, with prices for 5,500 kcal coal projected to exceed 1,000 RMB/ton between April and June [1][7][8] - The scarcity of market coal, which constitutes only 20%-30% of total coal, is a key factor supporting price increases [1][8] Investment Strategy - The investment strategy emphasizes prioritizing companies with high elasticity, particularly in thermal coal [1][9] - Recommended companies include: - Yanzhou Coal Mining Company (Yankuang Energy) with over 70% market coal share - Guanghui Energy, which has a diversified portfolio including coal, chemicals, and LNG - China Coal Energy, noted for its unique coal chemical elasticity [1][9][10] Risks and Considerations - Potential risks include unexpected increases in clean energy output, particularly from wind and hydropower, which could disrupt coal price trends [2][6] - Global economic downturns due to geopolitical conflicts could lead to significant demand declines [2][6] Current Market Conditions - Current coal prices are weak due to seasonal demand declines, but a rebound is expected shortly as market sentiment shifts [1][7] - The anticipated price increase is supported by limited supply and structural changes in demand, particularly from the chemical sector [1][6][8] Conclusion - The coal industry is entering a new cycle characterized by supply constraints and shifting demand dynamics, with significant investment opportunities in companies that can leverage these changes. The upcoming price increases and strategic positioning of key players will be critical in navigating this evolving landscape [1][9][10]

[Table_Title] 煤炭行业周报（2026 年第 10 期） [Table_Page] 投资策略周报|煤炭开采 两会明确煤炭基础保障定位，地缘冲突升级，价格弹性可期 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： 证券研究报告 [Table_Grade] 行业评级 买入 前次评级 买入 报告日期 2026-03-15 [Table_PicQuote] 相对市场表现 [分析师： Table_Author]沈涛 SAC 执证号：S0260523030001 SFC CE No. AUS961 010-59136686 shentao@gf.com.cn 分析师： 安鹏 SAC 执证号：S0260512030008 SFC CE No. BNW176 021-38003693 anpeng@gf.com.cn 分析师： 宋炜 SAC 执证号：S0260518050002 SFC CE No. BMV636 021-38003691 songwei@gf.com.cn [Table_ 相关研究： DocReport] -14% -4% 5% 15% 24% 34% 03/25 05/25 08/25 10/25 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [7] Core Insights - Due to ongoing conflicts in the Middle East, Gulf countries have had to cut oil production by at least 10 million barrels per day, leading to a potential annual need for approximately 1 billion tons of coal globally to replace oil [1][12] - The price ratio of thermal coal to crude oil is currently at a historical low, making coal a more economically viable alternative to oil and gas [2][13] - The coal industry is expected to benefit significantly from the energy crisis, with a projected increase in coal production of about 300 million tons in China to meet global oil and gas supply gaps [4][30] Summary by Sections 1. Oil Supply Reduction - The reduction of 10 million barrels per day in oil supply corresponds to a need for about 1 billion tons of coal annually, with China needing to increase coal production by approximately 300 million tons [1][12] 2. Economic Viability of Coal - The thermal coal to crude oil price ratio is at 0.35, the lowest since 2019, indicating that coal is becoming a more attractive substitute for oil and gas [2][13] 3. Pathways for Coal Substitution - **Electricity and Heating**: Coal can replace natural gas in power generation, especially when natural gas prices rise, leading to increased coal demand [3][14] - **Coal Chemical Industry**: The profit margin for coal chemical products is improving due to a widening oil-coal price gap, which reached 93.67 yuan/GJ as of March 2026, significantly higher than earlier in the year [3][22] 4. Beneficiaries of the Coal Industry - The coal industry is expected to see increased demand from power generation and chemical sectors, with a focus on companies involved in coal production, coal machinery, coal chemicals, and coal transportation [5][30] 5. Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies include major coal producers like China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and coal chemical companies such as Yancoal and Lanhua Sci-Tech, as well as coal transportation firms like Datong Railway [5][30]

丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨行业周报丨煤炭与消费用燃料 [Table_Title] 从油煤比、气煤比看煤价上涨空间？ 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 若从油煤比、气煤比出发，如何看煤价上涨空间？我们认为，根据 2025 年以来 2.3 的油煤比 和气煤比关系，计算合理国内动力煤价格分别应在 1010 元/吨和 966 元/吨，平均 988 元/吨， 与最新（3 月 13 日）国内煤价 729 元/吨相比高出 36%。可见在美伊冲突下，近期国内煤价表 现基本未反映海外油气价格上涨带来的传导效应，若油气价格保持高位，国内煤价存在较大补 涨空间。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] SAC：S0490516080003 SAC：S0490519030001 SAC：S0490517070008 SAC：S0490522090003 SAC：S0490524120007 SFC：BUT918 SFC：BUY139 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 肖勇 赵超 叶如祯 庄越 韦思宇 煤炭与消费用燃料 cjzqdt11111 [Table_ ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the coal mining industry [1] Core Views - The coal mining industry is experiencing a supply-demand imbalance, with domestic coal prices under pressure due to increased import costs and geopolitical tensions affecting shipping rates [4][7] - The report highlights that while the coal price has shown a downward trend recently, there is potential for recovery driven by high international energy prices and domestic demand in the coming months [7][14] Summary by Sections 1. Thermal Coal - As of March 13, the price of thermal coal at northern ports is 729 RMB/ton, a decrease of 14 RMB/ton week-on-week [14] - Production capacity utilization in the western regions increased by 4.72 percentage points week-on-week, attributed to the resumption of operations in small and medium-sized coal mines [14] - The daily consumption of the six major power plants increased by 47,000 tons week-on-week [14] - The price difference between domestic and Australian thermal coal has widened to -42 RMB/ton as of March 12 [14] 2. Coking Coal - The capacity utilization rate for coking coal mines increased by 1.16 percentage points to 85.7% week-on-week [5] - The average daily crossing volume at Ganqimaodu port was 1,378 cars, an increase of 50 cars week-on-week [5] - The price of main coking coal at ports is 1,570 RMB/ton, down 10 RMB/ton week-on-week [41] 3. Coke - The production capacity utilization rate for coking plants increased by 0.04 percentage points to 74.1% week-on-week [6] - The average profit per ton of coke has decreased to -3 RMB/ton, down 20 RMB/ton week-on-week [65] - The inventory of independent coking plants decreased week-on-week, indicating improved supply-demand dynamics [62] 4. Anthracite - The price of anthracite coal remains stable, with no significant changes reported [82] 5. Key Companies and Profit Forecasts - The report identifies several key companies in the coal mining sector, including China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and Yanzhou Coal Mining Company, recommending a "Buy" rating for these stocks based on their strong fundamentals and growth potential [9]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [7] Core Insights - The ongoing conflicts in the Middle East have led Gulf countries to reduce oil production by at least 10 million barrels per day, necessitating an annual increase of approximately 1 billion tons of coal globally to replace oil, with China needing to increase coal production by about 300 million tons [1][12] - The price ratio of thermal coal to crude oil is at a historical low, making coal a more economically viable alternative to oil and gas [2][13] - The coal industry is expected to benefit significantly from the energy crisis, with increased demand for coal in power generation and coal chemical industries as a substitute for natural gas and crude oil [4][30] Summary by Sections 1. Oil Supply Reduction - The reduction of 10 million barrels per day in oil supply corresponds to a need for 1 billion tons of coal annually, with China accounting for 27.9% of global energy consumption, thus requiring an increase of about 300 million tons of coal [1][12] 2. Economic Viability of Coal - The price ratio of thermal coal to crude oil is currently at 0.35, the lowest since 2019, indicating that coal is becoming a more cost-effective alternative as oil prices rise [2][13] 3. Pathways for Coal Substitution - Coal can replace natural gas in electricity and heating, especially in regions where natural gas prices are high, leading to increased coal demand [14] - In the coal chemical sector, the widening oil-coal price gap, currently at 93.67 yuan/GJ, enhances the profitability of coal chemical products [3][22] 4. Beneficiaries of the Coal Industry - The coal industry is expected to see increased production and demand, particularly in regions like Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi, and Xinjiang, which are projected to contribute significantly to the 300 million tons increase in coal production [4][30] 5. Investment Recommendations - Companies to focus on include major coal producers like China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and coal chemical companies such as Yancoal and Huadian Energy, as well as coal transportation firms like Datong Railway and Guanghui Logistics [5][30]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The Middle East situation is catalyzing oil prices, which is expected to continuously benefit the coal chemical industry [3] - The price of thermal coal has slightly decreased, with the Qinhuangdao Q5500 thermal coal closing price at 729 CNY/ton as of March 13, down 14 CNY/ton from the previous week [3] - The report anticipates that the price of thermal coal will experience a slight increase post-holiday due to improved market sentiment and increased demand for replenishment [3] - The report highlights that the ongoing Middle East situation is a significant variable affecting coal prices, with expectations of oil prices remaining above 90 USD [3] Summary by Relevant Sections Investment Logic - The prices of thermal coal and coking coal are at the right side of the turning point, with thermal coal being a policy-driven commodity. The price recovery process is expected to follow four stages: repairing central and local long-term contracts, reaching the coal-electricity profit-sharing line, and exceeding the breakeven point for power plants [5][16] - The ideal target for coal prices is projected to be around 750 CNY/ton for 2025, with a potential upper limit of 860 CNY/ton [5][16] - Coking coal prices are more influenced by supply and demand fundamentals, with target prices based on the ratio of coking coal to thermal coal prices [5][16] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a dual logic of cycles and dividends for coal stocks, indicating that both thermal and coking coal prices are at historical lows, providing room for rebound [6][17] - Four main lines for selecting coal stocks are proposed: 1. Cycle logic: Jin控煤业, 兖矿能源 for thermal coal; 平煤股份, 淮北矿业, 潞安环能 for metallurgical coal 2. Dividend logic: 中国神华, 中煤能源, 陕西煤业 3. Diversified aluminum elasticity: 神火股份, 电投能源 4. Growth logic: 新集能源, 广汇能源 [6][17] Key Market Indicators - The coal index increased by 5.03%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 4.85 percentage points [9][26] - The average PE ratio for the coal sector is 19.23, and the PB ratio is 1.63, ranking low among all A-share industries [30][32]

股 票 研 究 煤价淡季判断难深跌，夏季有望跟随海外弹性 [Table_Industry] 煤炭 煤炭行业周报 [姓名table_Authors] 电话 邮箱 登记编号 黄涛(分析师) 021-38674879 huangtao@gtht.com S0880515090001 邓铖琦(分析师) 010-83939825 dengchengqi@gtht.com S0880523050003 本报告导读： 煤价淡季判断难深跌，夏季有望跟随海外弹性，战略性看多未来 5-10 年的能源大周 期。 投资要点： [Table_Report] 相关报告 煤炭《否极泰来，开启新一轮上行周期》 2026.03.13 煤炭《地缘冲突或平抑淡季煤价下行波动，抬升 均价》2026.03.08 煤炭《【国泰海通煤炭数据库】行业数据更新 20260308》2026.03.08 煤炭《地缘冲突叠加印尼减产乐观预期，煤炭凸 显避险属性》2026.03.01 煤炭《国泰海通煤炭行业基本面数据库大全 20260301》2026.03.01 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2026.03.15 告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 行 业 ...

股 票 研 究 煤价淡季判断难深跌，夏季有望跟随海外弹性 [Table_Industry] 煤炭 煤炭行业周报 [姓名table_Authors] 电话 邮箱 登记编号 黄涛(分析师) 021-38674879 huangtao@gtht.com S0880515090001 邓铖琦(分析师) 010-83939825 dengchengqi@gtht.com S0880523050003 本报告导读： 煤价淡季判断难深跌，夏季有望跟随海外弹性，战略性看多未来 5-10 年的能源大周 期。 投资要点： [Table_Report] 相关报告 煤炭《否极泰来，开启新一轮上行周期》 2026.03.13 煤炭《地缘冲突或平抑淡季煤价下行波动，抬升 均价》2026.03.08 煤炭《【国泰海通煤炭数据库】行业数据更新 20260308》2026.03.08 煤炭《地缘冲突叠加印尼减产乐观预期，煤炭凸 显避险属性》2026.03.01 煤炭《国泰海通煤炭行业基本面数据库大全 20260301》2026.03.01 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2026.03.15 告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 行 业 ...