证券研究报告 • 需求：消费先抑后扬，整体仍有韧性 中枢抬升，价值优先 2026年度投资策略 行业评级：看好（维持） 2025年12月1日 | 分析师 | 樊金璐 | | --- | --- | | 邮箱 | fanjinlu@stocke.com.cn | | 电话 | 13466717654 | | 证书编号 | S1230525030002 | 摘要 ➢ 2025年回顾 • 供给：产量前高后低，增速逐渐转负 ➢ 产量前高后低。2025年1-10月，全国原煤产量累计完成39.73亿吨，同比增长1.5%。全年产量呈前高后低，上半年产量同比增长，7月至10月增速转负。 ➢ 进口同比下降。2025年1-10月，全国累计进口煤及褐煤3.88亿吨，同比减少11%。进口煤年初增长，从3月开始单月增速转负，3-10月进口均为负增长。 ➢ 疆煤外运平稳。截至2025年11月28日，乌铁局已完成8518.01万吨的疆煤外运量，同比增长6.4%。 ➢ 消费先抑后扬。2025年1-10月， 全国商品煤消费总量约42.4亿吨，同比增长0.1%，主因化工用煤增速高、钢铁用煤韧性强。 95% ➢ 行业用煤分化。分行业看，化工用煤3. ...

内容概要：随着国家能源安全战略的持续推进，煤炭作为基础能源的保障作用持续凸显，为保障能源安 全，大型煤矿的产能建设与技术改造持续推进，不论晋陕蒙等煤炭主产区的规模化开采，还是南方部分 新兴煤矿区的开发，都对高效、可靠的掘进机有持续且稳定的需求，此外，存量掘进机中服役多年的老 旧设备面临更新换代，形成稳定的置换市场需求，庞大的市场需求带动我国煤矿掘进机行业市场规模持 续扩容，据统计，2024年我国煤矿掘进机行业市场规模达46.3亿元，同比增长11.03%。 上市企业：三一国际（00631.HK）、冀凯股份（002691）、林州重机（002535）、山东矿机 （002526）、徐工机械（000425）、铁建重工（688425）、创力集团（603012）、天地科技 （600582）、兖矿能源（600188） 相关企业：沈阳北方交通重工集团有限公司、大同市同华矿机制造有限责任公司、中国煤炭科工集团有 限公司、太原重型机械集团有限公司、石家庄煤矿机械有限责任公司 关键词：煤矿掘进机发展历程、煤矿掘进机市场政策、煤矿掘进机产业链图谱、煤矿掘进机市场规模、 煤矿掘进机竞争格局、煤矿掘进机发展趋势 煤矿掘进机是用于在煤矿井下 ...

Joy Zhang 28 November 2025 | 12:31PM HKT Equity Research CHINA COMMODITIES Data update; refreshing earnings estimates, mainly to reflect mark to market price changes We refresh our earnings estimates for our China commodities coverage, mainly to reflect mark to market price changes in the 3Q25 and quarter to date. Our target prices changes are -5% to +5%, and our investment ratings are unchanged. We do not view these changes as material, and there is no change to our investment thesis. Key points in our est ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the coal industry, suggesting that the demand during the peak season remains resilient, and coal prices are expected to rise after adjustments [2]. Core Views - The report highlights that the supply side is constrained due to increased safety and environmental inspections, while demand is bolstered by winter heating needs, leading to an anticipated rebound in coal prices [2][8]. - The report recommends focusing on companies with elastic demand for thermal coal, such as Jinkong Coal Industry, Huayang Co., and TBEA, as well as undervalued stocks like Shanxi Coking Coal and Huaibei Mining [2]. Summary by Sections 1. Recent Industry Policies and Dynamics - The 2026 National Coal Trading Conference is scheduled for December 3-5 in Rizhao, Shandong [7]. - The Longwanggou Coal Mine's capacity replacement plan has been approved, marking a significant development in coal production capacity [7]. - Shanxi has established 281 green mines, enhancing the province's coal production capabilities [7]. 2. Price Trends of Thermal and Coking Coal - As of November 28, thermal coal prices have decreased slightly, with prices reported at 619, 713, and 816 RMB/ton for different grades [2]. - Coking coal prices have shown stability with minor declines, such as the price for low-sulfur coking coal at 1580 RMB/ton [2][11]. 3. International Oil Price Movements - Brent crude oil futures settled at 63.2 USD/barrel, reflecting a 1.02% increase [14]. 4. Inventory Levels in the Bohai Rim - The average daily coal inflow in the Bohai Rim ports decreased to 2.0511 million tons, while the outflow increased to 1.9854 million tons, indicating a supply-demand adjustment [18]. - The total coal inventory at the Bohai Rim ports rose to 26.671 million tons, marking a 2.65% increase [18]. 5. Coastal Shipping Rates - Domestic coastal shipping rates have decreased to 42.62 RMB/ton, a drop of 9.84% [27]. - International shipping rates have seen an increase, with Indonesian coal prices rising to 10.36 USD/ton [27]. 6. Key Company Valuation Table - The report includes a valuation table for key companies, indicating stock prices and market capitalizations, such as China Shenhua at 41.14 RMB with a market cap of 817.4 billion RMB [33].

行 业 及 产 业 煤炭/ 煤炭开采 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 2025 年 11 月 30 日 旺季需求韧性仍存，煤价有望企稳 回升 看好 ——煤炭行业周报（2025.11.22-2025.11.28） 相关研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 严天鹏 A0230524090004 yantp@swsresearch.com 闫海 A0230519010004 yanhai@swsresearch.com 施佳瑜 A0230521040004 shijy@swsresearch.com 研究支持 施佳瑜 A0230521040004 shijy@swsresearch.com 联系人 施佳瑜 A0230521040004 shijy@swsresearch.com 本期投资提示： ⚫ 动力煤方面，截至 11 月 28 日，据中国煤炭市场网，秦皇岛港口 Q4500、Q5000、 Q5500 动力煤现货价收报 619、713、816 元/吨，均环比下跌-26、-23、-18 元/吨。供 给端，据中国煤炭市场网，环渤海四港区本周日均调入量 205.11 万吨，环比上周减少 0.71 万吨，但同比上升 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key coal companies such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and others, indicating a positive outlook for the coal mining sector [9]. Core Viewpoints - The current coal price dynamics are primarily driven by "real demand" rather than speculative demand, with expectations of increased consumption as colder weather approaches [2][6]. - The coal market is experiencing a phase of price adjustment due to a lack of significant demand, with coal prices expected to stabilize and potentially rise as winter progresses and consumption increases [2][11]. - The report emphasizes that while coal prices are currently under pressure, the overall upward trend remains intact due to supply constraints and the potential for demand to pick up [6][11]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The CITIC Coal Index decreased by 0.54%, underperforming the CSI 300 Index by 2.18 percentage points, ranking 29th among CITIC sectors [1][76]. - As of November 28, 2025, the price of thermal coal at northern ports was reported at 824 CNY/ton, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 7 CNY/ton [35][76]. Key Areas of Analysis - **Thermal Coal**: The market sentiment is weak, leading to price adjustments. The supply remains stable, but demand is not meeting expectations, causing inventory pressures [11][14]. - **Coking Coal**: Prices are declining due to reduced purchasing from downstream sectors, with many coking enterprises pausing purchases to manage existing inventory [40][50]. - **Coke**: The first round of price reductions has begun, with steel mills becoming more cautious in their procurement strategies [56][74]. Price Trends - The report notes that the price of coking coal has seen a cumulative decline of 50-130 CNY/ton across various grades, with expectations for further price drops in the short term [50][56]. - The average profit per ton of coke has increased, indicating a potential recovery in profitability for coking enterprises despite the overall market weakness [70][74]. Inventory and Supply Dynamics - Inventory levels for both thermal and coking coal are rising, with many downstream buyers halting purchases, leading to increased stockpiles at coal mines [45][56]. - The report highlights that the effective supply of domestic coking coal may gradually shrink due to regulatory pressures and limited new capacity [57][58].

行业研究丨行业周报丨煤炭与消费用燃料 丨证券研究报告丨 [Table_Title] 板块回调，重视当前时点煤炭红利价值 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 11 月以来，受煤炭需求较弱影响，煤价下跌也致板块回调。煤炭后期是否还有配置机会？我们 认为，虽然电厂弱需求高库存制约了煤价上涨空间，然而港口库存同比偏低、进口煤量较低&安 监高压下煤炭供应偏紧也使得价格回调空间有限，因此板块回调后，具备盈利稳健和高股息特 性的红利标的性价比逐渐显现。考虑到年末险资的红利配置需求，当前时点重视煤炭红利的配 置价值。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] SAC：S0490516080003 SAC：S0490519030001 SAC：S0490517070008 SAC：S0490522090003 SAC：S0490524120007 SFC：BUT918 SFC：BUY139 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 肖勇 赵超 叶如祯 庄越 韦思宇 煤炭与消费用燃料 cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title2] 板块回调，重视当前时点煤炭红 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the coal mining industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [4][6]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the critical role of coal in ensuring power supply stability during the winter months, particularly in the context of increasing electricity demand driven by data centers [2][5]. - It highlights that the peak electricity demand in the U.S. is expected to increase by 166 GW over the next five years, with data centers being a significant contributor to this growth [2]. - The report suggests that coal-fired power generation will be essential in filling the supply gap during winter electricity shortages, reinforcing its importance as a reliable energy source [5]. Summary by Sections Coal Mining Prices - European ARA coal price is at $97.3 per ton, down by $1.44 per ton (-1.46%) from the previous week [1]. - Newcastle coal price is at $111.1 per ton, up by $0.2 per ton (+0.18%) [1]. - IPE South African Richards Bay coal price is at $85.1 per ton, up by $0.2 per ton (+0.18%) [1]. Electricity Demand - The report notes that coal power will play a crucial role in meeting electricity demand, especially during winter when renewable energy sources may be less reliable [5][6]. - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong performance potential, such as Yancoal Energy and Jinneng Holding, which are expected to benefit from the increased demand for coal [5][6]. Key Stocks - The report lists several key stocks with "Buy" ratings, including: - China Coal Energy (601898.SH) with an EPS forecast of 1.46 for 2024 and a PE ratio of 9.40 [6]. - China Shenhua Energy (601088.SH) with an EPS forecast of 2.95 for 2024 and a PE ratio of 14.40 [6]. - Jinneng Holding (601001.SH) with an EPS forecast of 1.68 for 2024 and a PE ratio of 9.00 [6]. Market Trends - The report indicates a significant increase in electricity demand, with data centers being a primary driver, and suggests that coal will remain a vital component of the energy mix in the coming years [2][5].

声明：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI基于第三方数据生成，仅供参考，不构成个人投资建议。 来源：市场资讯 兖矿能源集团股份有限公司，成立于1997年，位于济宁市，是一家以从事煤炭开采和洗选业为主的企 业。企业注册资本1003986.0402万人民币。通过天眼查大数据分析，兖矿能源集团股份有限公司共对外 投资了61家企业，参与招投标项目5000次，财产线索方面有商标信息298条，专利信息2326条，此外企 业还拥有行政许可48个。 天地科技股份有限公司，成立于2000年，位于北京市，是一家以从事科技推广和应用服务业为主的企 业。企业注册资本413858.8892万人民币。通过天眼查大数据分析，天地科技股份有限公司共对外投资 了29家企业，参与招投标项目1959次，财产线索方面有商标信息33条，专利信息1888条，此外企业还拥 有行政许可19个。 国家知识产权局信息显示，中煤科工开采研究院有限公司、兖矿能源集团股份有限公司、天地科技股份 有限公司取得一项名为"立柱及支护系统"的专利，授权公告号CN116104552B，申请日期为2022年12 月。 天眼查资料显示，中煤科工开采研究院有限公司，成立于2020年， ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the coal industry [2][5]. Core Views - The coal price is expected to maintain a strong oscillation due to a combination of recovering port operations, colder weather, and the need for power plants to replenish their stocks. The demand for coal is anticipated to increase as winter progresses, despite current weak consumption levels [7][8]. - The report highlights the "anti-involution" policy which is expected to continue to restrict supply, thereby supporting coal prices. Additionally, external coal supply is projected to decrease due to various factors affecting major exporting countries [7][8]. - The report suggests investment opportunities in the coal sector, particularly in companies with high elasticity to price changes, as the demand is expected to rise during the peak winter season [8]. Summary by Sections Basic Conditions - The industry comprises 37 listed companies with a total market value of 1,918.464 billion yuan and a circulating market value of 1,881.057 billion yuan [2]. Key Company Performance - Major companies such as Shanxi Coking Coal, Lu'an Environmental Energy, and Yanzhou Coal Mining Company are highlighted with their respective earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios indicating strong investment potential [5][6]. Coal Price Tracking - The report notes that the price of thermal coal at the port has seen fluctuations, with the price of Shanxi-produced thermal coal at 821 yuan/ton as of November 28, 2025, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 18 yuan/ton [8]. - The report also tracks the production levels and inventory of coal, indicating a slight decrease in daily production and a stable inventory situation at ports [8][9]. Downstream Performance - The report discusses the daily coal consumption in power plants, which is currently lower than expected but is projected to increase as winter progresses. The report also notes the impact of steel production on coal demand [9][10]. Investment Opportunities - The report emphasizes the potential for investment in coal stocks, particularly those that are expected to benefit from rising coal prices due to seasonal demand increases. Companies like Yanzhou Coal Mining and Shanxi Coking Coal are recommended for their strong market positions and growth potential [8][9].