沪指6月25日上涨1.04%，申万所属行业中，今日上涨的有28个，涨幅居前的行业为非银金融、国防军 工，涨幅分别为4.46%、3.36%。跌幅居前的行业为煤炭、石油石化、交通运输，跌幅分别为1.00%、 0.57%、0.21%。煤炭行业位居今日跌幅榜首位。 资金面上看，两市主力资金全天净流入71.38亿元，今日有10个行业主力资金净流入，非银金融行业主 力资金净流入规模居首，该行业今日上涨4.46%，全天净流入资金123.13亿元，其次是计算机行业，日 涨幅为2.99%，净流入资金为67.93亿元。 主力资金净流出的行业有21个，医药生物行业主力资金净流出规模居首，全天净流出资金23.26亿元， 其次是电力设备行业，净流出资金为22.87亿元，净流出资金较多的还有基础化工、通信、有色金属等 行业。 | 代码 | 简称 | 今日涨跌幅（%） | 今日换手率（%） | 主力资金流量（万元） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 600546 | 山煤国际 | 0.23 | 1.15 | -5663.28 | | 601225 | 陕西煤业 | -1.38 | 0.54 | -54 ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the coal industry as "Overweight," indicating an expectation for the industry to outperform the overall market [3][41]. Core Insights - The report highlights a recent increase in coal prices, with Q4500 and Q5000 thermal coal prices rising by 1.05% and 3.03% respectively, while Q5500 prices remained stable [3]. - Supply constraints are anticipated due to stricter safety regulations during the national safety production month, which may limit production and support coal prices during the traditional off-peak season [3]. - The report recommends key companies such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and China Coal Energy for their stable operations and high dividends, while also suggesting关注 for companies like Yanzhou Coal and Huabei Mining due to their undervalued potential [3]. Summary by Sections Recent Industry Policies and Dynamics - The report discusses the launch of a coal transportation initiative from Xinjiang to Henan, marking a strategic cooperation for energy supply [5][9]. - It notes the increase in green electricity exports from Qinghai to Guangdong, reflecting a growing trend in renewable energy [9]. Price Trends - Thermal coal prices have shown stability, with various regional prices holding steady or experiencing slight fluctuations [10][13]. - Coking coal prices are also stable, with some regional prices experiencing minor declines [13]. International Oil Price Surge - Brent crude oil prices increased by 3.75%, which may impact coal pricing dynamics as the relationship between oil and coal prices shifts [17]. Port Inventory and Shipping Costs - The report indicates a slight increase in coal inventory at the Bohai Rim ports, with average daily coal inflow rising by 2.60% [21]. - Domestic shipping costs have decreased, while international shipping rates have seen a slight increase, affecting overall coal transportation economics [29]. Company Valuation Table - The report provides a detailed valuation table for key companies in the coal sector, highlighting their stock prices, market capitalization, and earnings projections [35].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal mining industry is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The current phase is the early stage of a new upward cycle in the coal economy, with a resonance between fundamentals and policies, making it an opportune time to accumulate coal sector investments [11][12] - The coal supply-demand balance is expected to remain tight over the next 3-5 years, with high barriers to entry and strong cash flow characteristics for quality coal companies [12] - The coal price is anticipated to rebound due to increasing consumption during the summer peak and decreasing inventory levels [11][12] Summary by Sections 1. Coal Price Tracking - As of June 22, the market price for Qinhuangdao port thermal coal (Q5500) is 610 CNY/ton, unchanged from the previous week [30] - The price for Shanxi-produced coking coal at Jingtang port remains at 1250 CNY/ton, also unchanged [32] - International thermal coal prices show slight fluctuations, with Newcastle coal at 66.0 USD/ton, up 0.3 USD/ton week-on-week [30] 2. Coal Supply and Demand Tracking - The utilization rate of sample thermal coal mines is 94.5%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points week-on-week [48] - Daily coal consumption in inland provinces increased by 46.60 thousand tons/day (+15.32%) and in coastal provinces by 20.00 thousand tons/day (+11.66%) [49] - The operating rate of steel blast furnaces is at 83.82%, up 0.41 percentage points week-on-week [11] 3. Inventory Situation - As of June 19, coal inventory in inland provinces increased by 115.30 thousand tons, while coastal provinces saw an increase of 52.20 thousand tons [49] - The available days of coal in inland provinces decreased by 3.30 days, indicating tighter supply [49] 4. Investment Recommendations - Focus on stable and high-performing companies such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and China Coal Energy [12] - Consider companies with high elasticity and potential for recovery, such as Yanzhou Coal and Guohua Energy [12] - Pay attention to quality metallurgical coal companies like Huabei Mining and Pingmei Shenma [12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the coal sector [10] Core Views - The coal sector is expected to benefit from a low internal crowding degree and marginal improvement in the fundamentals during the peak season, leading to a sustained positive attitude towards the coal sector [2][7] - Short-term supply-demand improvements are anticipated, with a notable increase in daily coal consumption and a decrease in inventory levels [7][19] - The coal sector is viewed as an attractive investment option due to its low valuation and high dividend yield, making it a safe choice amid declining risk appetite [7] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The coal index (Yangtze) fell by 0.50%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.04 percentage points, ranking 8th out of 32 industries [6][18] - As of June 20, the market price for Qinhuangdao power coal was 609 RMB/ton, remaining stable week-on-week [6][44] Supply and Demand Analysis - Daily coal consumption across 25 provinces increased by 14% compared to the beginning of June, reaching 542.2 million tons [19] - Inventory levels at power plants were reported at 120.19 million tons, with a usable days count of 22.2 days, down by 2.8 days week-on-week [19][36] - The supply side showed a slight increase in capacity utilization rates in the "Three West" regions, indicating potential for supply adjustments [19][20] Price Trends - The report anticipates a stabilization and potential rebound in coal prices due to seasonal demand improvements and production cuts from safety and environmental inspections [6][19] - The report highlights that the current coal price center is expected to rise in the medium to long term due to resource depletion issues in Shanxi and limited increases in imports [7] Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks for short-term defensive and transformation strategies include China Coal Energy, China Shenhua, and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical [8] - Long-term growth companies to focus on include Yanzhou Coal Mining, Huayang Co., and Jinko Energy [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for several companies in the coal industry, including Jin控煤业, 陕西煤业, 中国神华, 中煤能源, 华阳股份, 山煤国际, 新集能源, 兖矿能源, and 淮北矿业 [2][10]. Core Viewpoints - The report is optimistic about the upcoming peak season for coal prices, predicting a price increase due to rising daily consumption by power plants and a tight supply situation [1][6]. - In May 2025, China's coal production increased year-on-year, but there are signs of a contraction in output due to stricter environmental inspections and reduced production in some regions [1][6]. - Coal imports in May 2025 decreased significantly, with a year-on-year drop of 7.78 million tons (-17.8%) and a month-on-month decrease of 1.79 million tons (-4.7%) [1][6]. - The report anticipates that domestic coal prices will remain stable in the short term, with a potential peak price of over 750 yuan/ton expected by mid-August 2025 [1][6]. Summary by Sections Weekly Insights - The report highlights an acceleration in daily coal consumption by power plants, with a noted increase in thermal power generation growth [1][6]. - The report indicates that the coal price at the pithead has slightly increased, while port prices have remained stable [1][6]. Market Performance - As of June 20, 2025, the coal sector experienced a weekly decline of 0.7%, slightly underperforming compared to the broader market indices [11][14]. Industry Dynamics - The report notes that the average coal price in Shanxi is 538 yuan/ton, reflecting a decrease of 2.91% from the previous week [40]. - The report also mentions that the average price of coking coal in Shanxi remains stable at 1058 yuan/ton [40]. Company Dynamics - The report provides insights into the performance of key companies, with Jin瑞矿业 showing the highest weekly increase of 6.98% as of June 20, 2025 [17]. - Conversely, 大有能源 experienced the largest decline, dropping by 6.11% during the same period [17].

6月20日晚间，证监会发布11份行政处罚决定书，编号为〔2025〕66号—76号，涉及案由均为内幕交易，罚没金额约6000万元。 涉同一案件，9人被罚没1600万元 南财快讯记者注意到，前七条（66号至72号）披露的信息均显示，2023年4月23日，相关公司披露《关于筹划公司控制权变更的停牌公告》并于次日按计划 停牌。上述控制权变更事项在公开前为内幕信息。该内幕信息不晚于2022年10月26日形成，公开于2023年4月23日。 记者检索日期与公告发现，2023年4月23日晚间，惠伦晶体（300460.SZ）披露了《关于筹划公司控制权变更的停牌公告》。 | 公告日期 ◆ | 证券代码 | 证券简称 | 发布时间 = | | 公告标题 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2023-04-24 | 300460.SZ | 惠伦晶体 | 2023-04-23 15:52 | 惠伦晶体：关于筹划公司控制权变更的停牌公告 | | 其中66号行政处罚决定书显示，邵力行为内幕信息知情人，知悉时点不晚于2023年1月9日。在2023年1月9日至4月23日期间，邵力行通过他人账户交 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [9]. Core Insights - The report highlights a seasonal improvement in thermal coal demand due to rising temperatures and electricity consumption, with expectations for price recovery in the future [2][25]. - The report notes a significant decrease in coal imports, attributed to high domestic coal prices and increased port inventories [12][15]. Supply Summary - Domestic coal production in May reached 40.328 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.2% and a month-on-month increase of 3.6% [6][15]. - Coal imports in May were 36.04 million tons, down 17.75% year-on-year and 4.7% month-on-month, with cumulative imports from January to May at 18.867 million tons, a decrease of 7.9% year-on-year [15][23]. Demand Summary - In May, thermal power generation increased by 1.2% year-on-year, reaching 737.8 billion kWh, with a month-on-month increase of 2.7% [25][27]. - Non-electric coal demand, particularly in the cement sector, saw a decline, with May production at 16.5 million tons, down 8.1% year-on-year [29][34]. Future Outlook - For thermal coal, there is potential for price recovery due to inventory depletion and seasonal demand increases, with a focus on upcoming weather conditions and renewable energy output [2][25]. - For coking coal, the report anticipates a seasonal decline in iron and steel demand, which may limit upward price movements, although there is potential for a rebound if inflation expectations improve or policy stimulus occurs [2][35]. Marginal Allocation Recommendations - Recommended stocks include leading companies with stable profits such as China Coal Energy, China Shenhua Energy, and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry [12][35].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the coal industry, suggesting a positive outlook based on current market conditions [2]. Core Viewpoints - The escalation of tensions in the Middle East has led to a significant increase in international crude oil prices, with Brent crude futures rising by 12.85% to $78.27 per barrel [4]. - During the peak summer demand period, coal consumption in coastal provinces is expected to rise significantly, with daily consumption projected to exceed 2 million tons by late June [4]. - Coal prices in China have shown signs of stabilization, with the price of 5500 kcal thermal coal at Qinhuangdao port remaining steady at 609 yuan per ton as of June 13 [4]. - The report highlights that the coal supply may decrease in June due to safety production measures and environmental inspections, which could further support price stabilization [4]. - The report suggests focusing on leading coal companies such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and Yanzhou Coal Mining, as well as coking coal leaders like Huaibei Mining and Shanxi Coking Coal [4]. Summary by Sections - **Market Conditions**: The report notes that the coal market is experiencing improved supply-demand dynamics, with a decrease in port inventories and cautious production attitudes among coal mines [4]. - **Price Trends**: Domestic coal prices are stabilizing due to improved market conditions and seasonal demand, with only a slight decrease observed in early June [4]. - **Investment Recommendations**: The report recommends investing in key players in the coal sector, indicating a favorable outlook for these companies amid rising oil prices and seasonal demand [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the coal industry [10] Core Viewpoints - The report discusses the potential impact of rising oil prices on coal prices and the coal sector, suggesting that geopolitical conflicts can lead to synchronized price increases for oil and coal, but this requires substantial and sustained effects on oil supply and demand [2][7] - The current coal prices are expected to remain stable, influenced by seasonal factors such as the rainy season affecting power plant inventory replenishment and a reduction in production from some small private coal mines [6][18] - Historical analysis indicates that past geopolitical conflicts have not consistently led to increases in coal prices, emphasizing the need for sustained oil supply disruptions for a similar effect on coal [8][9] Summary by Sections Weekly Tracking Summary - The coal index (Yangtze) decreased by 0.40%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.15 percentage points, ranking 16th out of 32 industries [18] - As of June 13, the market price for Qinhuangdao power coal was 609 RMB/ton, unchanged from the previous week [6][18] Supply and Demand Situation - The daily coal consumption across 25 provinces was 4.756 million tons, a decrease of 2.0% week-on-week and 6.7% year-on-year [34] - The total coal inventory in power plants was 119 million tons, with an available days supply of 24.9 days, reflecting a slight increase [34] Price Situation - The report notes that the price of main coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1230 RMB/ton, down 40 RMB/ton from the previous week [6][18] - The report highlights that the international coal prices have shown fluctuations, with Australian 5500 kcal FOB prices at 68.25 USD/ton, down 0.8 USD/ton week-on-week [18][36] Company Performance - The report identifies top-performing coal companies for the week, including Anyuan Coal Industry (up 11.33%) and Yunnan Coal Energy (up 9.82%) [28][31] - Conversely, companies like Dayou Energy and Pingmei Shenma Coal fell by 4.15% and 3.67%, respectively [28][31] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends marginal allocation to leading companies with stable profits such as China Coal Energy and Shenhua Energy, as well as growth-oriented companies like Electric Power Investment Energy and New Energy [9]

行 业 及 产 业 煤炭/ 煤炭开采 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 相关研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 严天鹏 A0230524090004 yantp@swsresearch.com 闫海 A0230519010004 yanhai@swsresearch.com 施佳瑜 A0230521040004 shijy@swsresearch.com 研究支持 施佳瑜 A0230521040004 shijy@swsresearch.com 联系人 施佳瑜 (8621)23297818× shijy@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 2025 年 06 月 15 日 库存逐步去化，国际油价上涨，煤 价有望受益上涨 看好 ——煤炭行业周报（2025.6.6-2025.6.13） 本期投资提示： ⚫ 动力煤方面，截至 6 月 13 日，据中国煤炭市场网，秦皇岛港口 Q4500 动力煤现货价收 报 474 元/吨，环比上升 0.21%；Q5000、Q5500 动力煤现货价收报 528 元/吨，609 元/ 吨，环比均持平。供给端，据中国煤炭市场网，截至 6 ...