作为能源替代品，煤炭需求预期增强，纽卡斯尔煤炭期货价格在3月跳涨9.3%，触及每吨150美元。这 种外部冲击直接提振了以兖矿能源为代表的煤炭股市场情绪。方正证券指出，若地缘冲突长期化，煤炭 作为"能源压舱石"的价格中枢可能上移，供需刚性支撑其长期估值。 | 代码 | 名称 | 最新价 | 涨跌幅 √ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 03668 | 兖煤澳大利亚 | 45.520 | 6.49% | | 01171 | 兖矿能源 | 16.630 | 4.26% | | 01088 | 中国神华 | 48.980 | 3.20% | | 01277 | 力量发展 | 2.290 | 2.69% | | 01898 | 中煤能源 | 14.480 | 2.55% | 港股煤炭股逆势拉升上扬，其中，兖煤澳大利亚涨超6%领衔，兖矿能源涨超4%，中国神华涨3.2%，三 者均逼近历史高位，中煤能源、力量发展涨2.6%。 消息上，中东局势持续升级推升油价。伊朗成功打击位于沙特首都利雅得郊区的利雅得油气联合炼油厂 美方专属区域。卡塔尔能源公司发布声明，卡塔尔拉斯拉凡工业城当晚遭遇导弹袭击。声明表示 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 煤炭战略安全资源属性凸显，业绩与估值双击可期 2026年煤炭与海外能源春季策略 证券分析师：严天鹏 A0230524090004 施佳瑜 A0230521040004 闫海 A0230519010004 研究支持： 施佳瑜 A0230521040004 联系人： 施佳瑜 A0230521040004 2026.03.19 主要内容 ◼ 2022年2月，俄乌冲突爆发。期间，油气价格大涨，带动全球煤炭价格共振向上。 ◼ 1978年伊朗发生推翻巴列维王朝的革命，从1978年底至1979年3月初，该国停止输出石油60天，使石油 市场每天短缺石油500万桶，约占世界总消费量的1/10，致使油价动荡和供应紧张。1980年9月两伊战争 爆发。两国石油生产完全停止，世界石油产量完全受到影响，产量剧减，全球市场上每天都有560万桶的 缺口，打破了当时全球原油市场上供求关系的脆弱。在此期间，欧佩克内部发生分裂。多数成员国主张随 行就市，提高油价。油价在1979年开始暴涨，从每桶13美元猛增至1980年底的41美元，涨幅接近3倍。 海外：多边主义的裂痕，资源民族主义的觉醒 2 1. 复盘俄乌冲突事件，油煤共 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业月报 gszqdatemark 2026 03 18 年 月 日 煤炭开采 产量降，需求增，叙事已明，空间大开 事件：国家统计局公布 2026 年 1-2 月份能源生产情况。 1-2 月原煤产量同比下降 0.3%。据国家统计局数据，1-2 月份，规上工业原 煤产量 7.6 亿吨，同比下降 0.3%，月环比减少 13.64%；日均产量 1293 万 吨。展望 2026，我们预计 2026 年相关政策力度有望延续甚至更趋严格。国 内煤炭现有生产矿井难以提供额外增量；煤炭产量的增长预计将几乎完全依 赖于"新投产矿井"。此外，部分"核增手续不齐全"的矿井亦有面临整改或 退出的风险。综上，根据新建矿井投产进度并结合部分地区因资源枯竭等原因 造成的产量下滑综合考虑，我们预计 2026 年国内动力煤产量仅增加 2000~3000 万吨至 38.5 亿吨，同比增长 0.6%左右。 1-2 月煤炭进口量同比增长 1.5%。2026 年 1-2 月份，我国进口煤炭 7722.2 万吨，较去年同期增加 110.3 万吨，同比增长 1.45%。展望 2026 年，我们预 计中国动力煤进口量总体保持稳定，全球主要 ...

Investment Rating - The coal industry is rated as "Leading the Market-A" and the rating is maintained [1] Core Views - Geopolitical conflicts have driven significant increases in oil and gas prices, positively impacting the coal chemical sector [1] - Domestic coal mines are maintaining normal production levels, but there is a decrease in residential electricity demand as temperatures rise, leading to weak pricing for thermal coal [2] - The metallurgical coal market is experiencing a loosening supply, with downstream procurement primarily based on demand due to slow resumption of operations [3] Summary by Sections 1. Investment Highlights - Thermal coal prices are under pressure due to insufficient downstream demand, with the current spot price at 736 RMB/ton, a weekly change of -2% [2] - The inventory of coal at the nine ports in the Bohai Rim is 24.64 million tons, reflecting a weekly decrease of 3.23% [2] 2. Dynamic Data Tracking - The price of coking coal at the Jingtang Port is 1,570 RMB/ton, with a weekly change of -0.63%, while the price for 1/3 coking coal is 1,340 RMB/ton, showing a weekly increase of 4.69% [3] - The total inventory of coking coal at independent coking plants is 8.15 million tons, with a weekly increase of 2.37% [3] 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies like Yanzhou Coal Mining Company and Guanghui Energy, which are well-positioned to benefit from the current geopolitical situation and high oil prices [5] - Companies with strong ties to coal chemical production, such as China Coal Energy and Lanhua Sci-Tech, are also highlighted as worthy of attention [5] - Other companies mentioned for their strong configuration value include Jinkong Coal Industry, Shanxi Coal International, and others involved in energy security [5]

Investment Rating - The coal industry is rated as "Leading the Market - A" and the rating is maintained [1] Core Views - Geopolitical conflicts are driving significant increases in oil and gas prices, positively impacting the coal chemical sector [1] - Domestic coal mines are maintaining normal production levels, but downstream demand for thermal coal is weak, leading to a decline in prices [2] - The metallurgical coal market is experiencing a loosening supply, with downstream procurement being demand-driven [3] Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance - The thermal coal price as of March 13 is 736 CNY/ton, reflecting a weekly change of -2%, while the Qinhuangdao port price is 729 CNY/ton, down by 1.88% [2] - The inventory of coal at the nine ports in the Bohai Rim is 24.64 million tons, showing a weekly decrease of 3.23% [2] 2. Metallurgical Coal - The supply of coking coal is becoming more relaxed, with downstream procurement primarily based on demand due to slow resumption of work [3] - As of March 13, the price of main coking coal at Jingtang Port is 1,570 CNY/ton, down by 0.63%, while the price of 1/3 coking coal is 1,340 CNY/ton, up by 4.69% [3] 3. Investment Recommendations - Companies such as Yanzhou Coal Mining Company and Guanghui Energy are highlighted as benefiting from overseas capacity layout and energy resonance [5] - Other companies with strong configuration value include Jinko Coal Industry, Huayang Co., Shanxi Coal International, and others [5] 4. Geopolitical Impact - Ongoing geopolitical conflicts, particularly in the Strait of Hormuz and uncertainties regarding Indonesian policies, are affecting overseas thermal coal prices and import volumes [4] - The coal chemical sector is expected to benefit from the widening price gap between crude oil and coal, as well as strong domestic demand for methanol and olefins [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the coal industry, with specific recommendations for various companies [2][14]. Core Insights - The domestic supply contraction is the main driver for the upward shift in coal prices, supported by overseas factors and increased demand from coal chemical industries [6][8]. - The report forecasts that coal prices will stabilize and fluctuate within the range of 800-1000 RMB/ton, with limited adjustment potential due to low inventory and rising non-electric demand [8][9]. - The coal chemical sector is expected to see significant growth, with coal consumption projected to reach 304 million tons in 2023, increasing to 362 million tons by 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 11.5% [9][10]. Summary by Sections Company Performance and Recommendations - Recommended companies include: 1. High spot price elasticity stocks: Jinko Coal, Shanxi Coal International, Lu'an Environmental Energy, Huayang Co., and Yanzhou Coal [14]. 2. Industry leaders with stable performance: China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and China Coal Energy [14]. 3. Beneficiaries of nuclear power growth: CGN Mining [14]. - The report highlights that the coal sector outperformed the market, with a weekly increase of 5.4% compared to the Shanghai Composite Index's decline of 0.7% [15][18]. Market Dynamics - The report notes a significant increase in coal demand due to high European gas prices and the restart of coal-fired power plants in Europe, which has led to a rise in international coal prices [6][8]. - Domestic coal supply is expected to continue contracting, with approximately 200 million tons of capacity still pending replacement and environmental approval, posing a risk of further reductions [8][9]. Coal Chemical Industry Growth - The report emphasizes the rapid growth of the coal chemical sector, with ongoing projects expected to consume approximately 243 million tons of coal, and potential future projects could double this demand [9][10]. - The increase in chemical product prices and the geopolitical focus on energy security are expected to accelerate the approval and construction of new coal chemical projects [9][10]. Price Trends and Inventory - As of March 13, coal prices at Qinhuangdao Port were reported at 731 RMB/ton, reflecting a weekly decrease of 14 RMB/ton, while prices in various production areas showed mixed trends [10][12]. - The report indicates that the average daily coal consumption in power plants has decreased, leading to an increase in available days of coal supply [12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the coal industry, with all listed companies receiving a "Recommended" rating [2][14]. Core Insights - The domestic supply contraction is the main driver for the upward shift in coal prices, supported by overseas factors and increased demand from coal chemical industries. The report anticipates a return to a balanced supply-demand state in 2023-2024, with prices expected to fluctuate between 800-1000 RMB/ton [6][8]. - The report highlights significant growth in coal consumption for chemical production, projecting consumption to reach 304 million tons in 2023, 325 million tons in 2024, and 362 million tons in 2025, with year-on-year growth rates of +9.4%, +6.9%, and +11.5% respectively [9][14]. - The report emphasizes investment opportunities in coal chemical projects due to rising chemical prices and the acceleration of new coal chemical constructions [9][14]. Summary by Sections Key Companies and Their Ratings - Jin控煤业: EPS forecast for 2024A is 1.68 RMB, PE is 11, rated "Recommended" [2]. - 山煤国际: EPS forecast for 2024A is 1.14 RMB, PE is 11, rated "Recommended" [2]. - 潞安环能: EPS forecast for 2024A is 0.82 RMB, PE is 19, rated "Recommended" [2]. - 华阳股份: EPS forecast for 2024A is 0.62 RMB, PE is 16, rated "Recommended" [2]. - 兖矿能源: EPS forecast for 2024A is 1.44 RMB, PE is 15, rated "Recommended" [2]. - 中国神华: EPS forecast for 2024A is 2.95 RMB, PE is 17, rated "Recommended" [2]. - 陕西煤业: EPS forecast for 2024A is 2.31 RMB, PE is 11, rated "Recommended" [2]. - 中煤能源: EPS forecast for 2024A is 1.46 RMB, PE is 13, rated "Recommended" [2]. - 中广核矿业: EPS forecast for 2024A is 0.04 HKD, PE is 95, rated "Recommended" [2]. - 新集能源: EPS forecast for 2024A is 0.92 RMB, PE is 9, rated "Recommended" [2]. - 淮北矿业: EPS forecast for 2024A is 1.80 RMB, PE is 8, rated "Recommended" [2]. - 兰花科创: EPS forecast for 2024A is 0.49 RMB, PE is 15, rated "Cautiously Recommended" [2]. Market Performance - As of March 13, the coal sector has seen a weekly increase of 5.4%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index which decreased by 0.7% [15][18]. - The report notes that the coal chemical sub-sector has the potential for significant growth due to rising chemical prices and increased demand [9][14]. Industry Dynamics - The report discusses the impact of international factors, such as rising European gas prices and geopolitical tensions, which are expected to support domestic coal prices [6][8]. - It also highlights the ongoing supply adjustments and the potential for increased coal chemical project approvals, which could further enhance demand [9][14].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the coal mining industry [4]. Core Views - The geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and logistical bottlenecks in Russia have led to a suspension of coal exports from Russia, significantly impacting global coal trade dynamics and prices [2]. - The report highlights a substantial increase in shipping costs for coal from the Far East to China, with freight rates rising by 17%-27% in the last week of February [2]. - The report emphasizes the importance of performance in annual reports, recommending companies with strong performance such as China Coal Energy, Yanzhou Coal Mining, and China Shenhua Energy [3]. Summary by Sections Global Energy Price Review - As of March 13, 2026, Brent crude oil futures settled at $103.14 per barrel, up $10.45 (+11.27%) from the previous week. WTI crude oil futures settled at $98.71 per barrel, up $7.81 (+8.59%) [1]. - Natural gas prices in Northeast Asia saw a decline, with spot prices at $20.01 per million British thermal units, down $1.17 (-5.50%) [1]. - Coal prices varied, with European ARA port coal at $124.00 per ton, down $5.50 (-4.25%), while Newcastle port coal rose to $138.00 per ton, up $4.60 (+3.45%) [1]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies such as China Coal Energy (H+A), Yanzhou Coal Mining (H+A), China Shenhua Energy (H+A), and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry [3]. - It also highlights companies in the smart mining sector like Keda Control and those undergoing turnaround like China Qinfa [3]. Market Dynamics - The report notes that global coal prices are reacting strongly to geopolitical tensions, with prices in Western Europe rising from $105 per ton to $125-130 per ton, and Newcastle high-calorific coal prices increasing to $130 per ton [2][3]. - The report indicates that the logistics costs are expected to rise due to rerouting of shipping routes to avoid conflict zones, impacting overall coal supply and pricing [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the coal mining industry [4] Core Insights - The geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and logistical bottlenecks in Russia have led to a suspension of coal exports from Russia, significantly impacting global coal trade dynamics and prices [2] - The report highlights a substantial increase in shipping costs for coal from the Far East to China, with freight rates rising by 17%-27% in the last week of February [2] - The report emphasizes the importance of performance in annual reports, recommending companies such as China Coal Energy, Yanzhou Coal Mining, China Shenhua Energy, and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry [3] Summary by Sections Global Energy Price Review - As of March 13, 2026, Brent crude oil futures settled at $103.14 per barrel, up $10.45 (+11.27%) from the previous week; WTI crude oil futures settled at $98.71 per barrel, up $7.81 (+8.59%) [1] - Natural gas prices in Northeast Asia saw a decline, with spot prices at $20.01 per million British thermal units, down $1.17 (-5.50%) [1] - Coal prices showed mixed trends, with European ARA coal prices at $124.00 per ton, down $5.50 (-4.25%), while Newcastle coal prices rose to $138.00 per ton, up $4.60 (+3.45%) [1] Industry Dynamics - The report notes that the suspension of Russian coal exports is due to logistical constraints, including railway restrictions and shipping delays, which have led to increased shipping costs and reduced supply [2] - The report indicates that global coal prices have reacted sharply to geopolitical tensions, with prices in Western Europe rising from $105 to $125-130 per ton, and Newcastle coal prices increasing to $130 per ton [2] Key Stocks - The report recommends a buy rating for several companies, including: - China Coal Energy (601898.SH) with an EPS forecast of 1.46 for 2024 and a PE ratio of 9.40 [6] - China Shenhua Energy (601088.SH) with an EPS forecast of 2.95 for 2024 and a PE ratio of 13.70 [6] - Yanzhou Coal Mining (600188.SH) with an EPS forecast of 1.44 for 2024 and a PE ratio of 10.20 [6] - Other companies to watch include Peabody (BTU), Jin Coal Industry, and Lu'an Environmental Energy, among others [3]

Summary of Coal Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the coal industry in the context of the "14th Five-Year Plan" and the upcoming "15th Five-Year Plan" [1][2][3] Key Points and Arguments Transition in Coal Positioning - The "15th Five-Year Plan" redefines coal from being the "main energy source" to a role of "guarantee and regulatory power" [1][2] - Coal consumption is expected to peak between 2026 and 2030, with its share projected to drop to 45% by 2030 [1][3] Supply Constraints - Domestic coal production capacity is exhausted due to safety assessments and prior over-extraction, limiting any potential increase in output [1][4] - Import capacity is also restricted, with a stable import volume of around 500 million tons expected, influenced by policies in resource-rich countries [1][5] Demand Structure Changes - Demand for coal in construction materials is declining, while coal chemical and steel exports are driving marginal improvements in non-electric demand [1][6] - The demand logic is shifting from domestic dominance to global pricing guidance [1][6] Price Trends - Coal prices are expected to enter an upward trend starting in April, with prices for 5,500 kcal coal projected to exceed 1,000 RMB/ton between April and June [1][7][8] - The scarcity of market coal, which constitutes only 20%-30% of total coal, is a key factor supporting price increases [1][8] Investment Strategy - The investment strategy emphasizes prioritizing companies with high elasticity, particularly in thermal coal [1][9] - Recommended companies include: - Yanzhou Coal Mining Company (Yankuang Energy) with over 70% market coal share - Guanghui Energy, which has a diversified portfolio including coal, chemicals, and LNG - China Coal Energy, noted for its unique coal chemical elasticity [1][9][10] Risks and Considerations - Potential risks include unexpected increases in clean energy output, particularly from wind and hydropower, which could disrupt coal price trends [2][6] - Global economic downturns due to geopolitical conflicts could lead to significant demand declines [2][6] Current Market Conditions - Current coal prices are weak due to seasonal demand declines, but a rebound is expected shortly as market sentiment shifts [1][7] - The anticipated price increase is supported by limited supply and structural changes in demand, particularly from the chemical sector [1][6][8] Conclusion - The coal industry is entering a new cycle characterized by supply constraints and shifting demand dynamics, with significant investment opportunities in companies that can leverage these changes. The upcoming price increases and strategic positioning of key players will be critical in navigating this evolving landscape [1][9][10]