Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the coal industry, suggesting a "Buy" rating for specific stocks based on their performance relative to the market [3][29]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the coal prices are expected to rise due to supply constraints and seasonal demand, particularly in the context of winter heating needs [3][4]. - It emphasizes the impact of environmental regulations and safety inspections on coal production, which are likely to tighten supply further [3][7]. - The report identifies several companies as potential investment opportunities, including Jin控煤业, 华阳股份, and 山煤国际, based on their price elasticity and valuation [3][4]. Summary by Sections 1. Recent Industry Policies and Dynamics - The report discusses the initiation of the third round of central ecological environment protection inspections, which will affect major coal-producing regions and companies [7]. - It mentions the State Energy Administration's guidance on integrating coal with renewable energy, focusing on low-carbon transitions and new energy developments in mining areas [7]. 2. Price Trends of Coal - The report notes fluctuations in domestic coal prices, with specific increases in certain regions, such as a rise of 10 CNY/ton in Dazhou and Ordos [8]. - The overall coal price index in the Bohai Rim region has increased by 4 CNY/ton, indicating a general upward trend in coal prices [8]. 3. International Oil Prices - Brent crude oil prices have risen by 1.19% to 64.39 USD/barrel, which may influence coal prices due to the relationship between oil and coal markets [14]. 4. Port Inventory Trends - The report indicates an increase in coal inventory at the Bohai Rim ports, with a total of 24.3 million tons, reflecting a 2.56% rise week-on-week [18]. 5. Domestic and International Freight Rates - Domestic coastal shipping rates have increased slightly, with an average of 51.52 CNY/ton, while international shipping rates from Australia to China have also seen a rise [23]. 6. Key Company Valuation Table - The report provides a detailed valuation table for key companies in the coal sector, highlighting their stock prices, market capitalization, and earnings projections [28].

Investment Strategy Overview - The report highlights the resurgence of resource nationalism driven by de-globalization, emphasizing coal's strategic importance for national energy security. Major coal-producing countries like Indonesia, Mongolia, and the USA are tightening control over coal resources, integrating them into national strategies to bolster energy independence and support domestic industrial and power needs [3][4][5]. Supply Side Analysis - The coal industry is undergoing a significant restructuring, with safety and environmental regulations leading to a more rational supply order. The release of production capacity is expected to be steady but cautious, promoting high-quality development in the coal sector [3][4]. - Domestic supply costs are rising, and coal imports are tightening marginally due to increased scrutiny and regulations [4][32]. Demand Side Analysis - The report anticipates a stable and slight increase in overall coal demand, driven by the rigid growth in electricity consumption and the irreplaceable role of coal in peak regulation and energy security. The expected price range for thermal coal in 2026 is projected to be between 750-800 RMB per ton [3][4][29]. - The resilience of coal power generation is highlighted, particularly in the context of fluctuating renewable energy output, indicating that coal will continue to play a crucial role in the energy mix [3][4]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in stable, high-dividend companies such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and China Coal Energy. It also suggests paying attention to companies with price elasticity like Jinkong Coal Industry, Huayang Co., Tebian Electric Apparatus, and Shanxi Coal International [3][4]. - Growth-oriented companies in coal-electricity joint ventures, such as Xinji Energy, are also recommended for consideration [3][4]. Regional Insights - Indonesia's coal production is expected to decline in 2025 due to new resource tax regulations, which will increase export costs and support domestic coal prices [11][12]. - Mongolia's coal production and sales are affected by ongoing political instability, impacting the stability of coal imports [17][18]. - The USA is implementing favorable policies to revitalize its coal industry, including reducing royalty rates and increasing federal land available for coal exploration [21][22]. Future Capacity and Production Trends - Future coal production capacity is expected to be limited, with only about 67 million tons of new capacity projected over the next three years. The focus is shifting towards regions like Xinjiang, which has significant coal reserves and favorable mining conditions [61][67]. - The report notes that the overall coal production in China is unlikely to see significant growth in 2026 due to ongoing safety inspections and regulatory measures [51][53].

股票代码：600188 股票简称：兖矿能源 编号：临 2025-069 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记 载、误导性陈述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和 完整性承担法律责任。 本期发行的相关文件请见中国货币网（www.chinamoney.com.cn） 和上海清算所网站（www.shclearing.com）。 2025 年 6 月 20 日，兖矿能源集团股份有限公司（"本公司"） 获准注册债务融资工具(中市协注〔2025〕TDFI23 号)，有效期 2 年。 2025 年 11 月 13 日，本公司成功发行 2025 年度第三期科技创新债 券（"本期发行"），募集资金人民币 30 亿元，已于 2025 年 11 月 14 日到账。 现将本期发行结果公告如下： | | 发行要素 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 | 兖矿能源集团股份有限 公司 2025 年度第三期科 技创新债券 | 简称 | 25 兖矿能源 MTN003 （科创债） | | 代码 | 102584729 | 期限 | 3+N 年 | | 起息日 | 2025 年 11 月 ...

格隆汇11月17日丨兖矿能源(01171.HK)公布，2025年6月20日，公司获准注册债务融资工具(中市协注 〔2025〕TDFI23号)，有效期2年。2025年11月13日，公司成功发行2025年度第三期科技创新债券，募 集资金人民币30亿元，已于2025年11月14日到账。 ...

香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公告之內容概不負責， 對其準確性或完整性亦不發表任何聲明，並明確表示概不就因本公告全部或任何部 份內容而產生或因倚賴該等內容而引致之任何損失承擔任何責任。 兗礦能源集團股份有限公司 YANKUANG ENERGY GROUP COMPANY LIMITED* ( 在中華人民共和國註冊成立的股份有限公司 ) (股份代碼：01171) 關於 2025 年度第三期科技創新債券發行結果的公告 | 計劃發行總 30 | 億元人民幣 30 | 實際發行總額 | 億元人民幣 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 額 | | | | | 發行利率 | 2.06% 100 | 發行價格 | 元/佰元面值 | | 簿記管理人 | 招商銀行股份有限公司 | | | | 主承銷商 | 招商銀行股份有限公司 | | | | 聯席主承銷 | 興業銀行股份有限公司、廣發銀行股份有限公司 | | | | 商 | | | | 本期發行的相關文件請見中國貨幣網（www.chinamoney.com.cn）和上海清算所網 站（www.shclearing.com）。 承董事 ...

浙商证券研报指出，兖矿能源背靠山能集团，目标成为国际一流清洁能源引领示范企业。规划未来5-10 年产业布局矿业、高端化工新材料、新能源、高端装备制造、智慧物流五大主导产业，建设国际一流清 洁能源引领示范企业。公司资源量超460亿吨，分布广泛，种类齐全。通过扩产和并购，产能稳步增 长，近五年通过收购年产能增加超过8000万吨。在建及规划煤矿项目为产能增长提供动能，预计超过 6000万吨/年。煤炭化工营收和毛利整体呈增长趋势，2025年前三季度营收和毛利分别为185.3亿元和 48.8亿元，仍处于较高水平。化工业务毛利率整体平稳。公司立足国内，放眼全球，外延并购，在建可 期，产能迈向三亿吨。正值行业周期底部反转，量价齐升，成长显著，首次覆盖给予"买入"评级。 ...

截至9月30日，兖矿能源股东户数13.42万，较上期减少9.15%；人均流通股0股，较上期增加0.00%。 2025年1月-9月，兖矿能源实现营业收入1049.57亿元，同比减少1.57%；归母净利润71.20亿元，同比减 少37.57%。 分红方面，兖矿能源A股上市后累计派现868.46亿元。近三年，累计派现423.77亿元。 机构持仓方面，截止2025年9月30日，兖矿能源十大流通股东中，香港中央结算有限公司位居第三大流 通股东，持股7508.97万股，相比上期减少3453.30万股。国泰中证煤炭ETF（515220）位居第四大流通 股东，持股7086.78万股，相比上期增加4308.37万股。华泰柏瑞沪深300ETF（510300）位居第五大流通 股东，持股3051.26万股，相比上期减少144.44万股。华泰柏瑞上证红利ETF（510880）位居第六大流通 股东，持股2800.39万股，相比上期增加156.93万股。易方达沪深300ETF（510310）位居第七大流通股 东，持股2201.24万股，相比上期减少70.49万股。景顺长城景盛双息收益债券A类（002065）位居第九 大流通股东，持股169 ...

Core Viewpoint - The coal sector is expected to stabilize and rebound in prices due to the "check overproduction" policy, benefiting thermal coal companies through improved long-term contract performance and coal-electricity integration, while coking coal companies face pressure due to lagging contract pricing [1][7]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the coal sector saw a positive revenue growth, with thermal coal companies experiencing a better net profit growth compared to coking coal companies [1]. - The price of Qinhuangdao 5500 kcal thermal coal increased from 621 CNY/ton on June 30, 2025, to 699 CNY/ton on September 30, 2025, marking a cumulative increase of 12.6% in Q3 [1]. - The overall performance of the coal industry is expected to continue improving due to increased heating demand and tight supply-side policies in Q4 [1][6]. Group 2: Production and Sales - The "check overproduction" policy in Q3 2025 led to stable production among leading thermal coal companies, while coking coal production saw a noticeable decline [2]. - Most listed coal companies did not significantly reduce their output in Q3, with some midstream companies experiencing high sales growth and accelerated inventory reduction due to improved supply-demand dynamics [2]. Group 3: Pricing Dynamics - In Q3 2025, the self-produced coal prices decreased year-on-year by 10% to 20%, while the sales prices of coal companies showed narrow fluctuations or slight increases, with most increases being less than 10% [3]. - The lag in price transmission from market coal prices to listed companies' sales prices is attributed to long-term contract pricing mechanisms and order delivery cycles [3]. Group 4: Cost Management - In H1 2025, coal companies shifted their strategies from volume-based to cost control, which became crucial in facing low coal prices and high inventory levels [4]. - Leading thermal coal companies maintained cost control in Q3 2025, achieving a decrease in unit costs, while some coking coal companies experienced an increase in unit sales costs, negatively impacting their performance [4]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The combination of stable production, rising prices, and cost reductions for thermal coal companies is expected to lead to improved profitability, while coking coal companies may see significant price rebounds in Q4 as long-term contracts adjust to higher market prices [5]. - The coal market is currently in a phase of tightening supply and increasing demand, with winter coal prices expected to remain strong due to seasonal heating needs and ongoing supply-side policies [7]. Group 6: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests actively monitoring robust thermal coal companies such as China Shenhua, China Coal Energy, and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, as well as high-elasticity coal companies like Yanzhou Coal Mining, Jincheng Anthracite Mining, and Shanxi Coal International [8].

Core Viewpoint - The report indicates that the price of thermal coal has recently increased, with Qinhuangdao Q5500 thermal coal closing at 834 RMB/ton as of November 14, marking a slight increase. The price at Guangzhou Port has reached 880 RMB, surpassing the previously indicated target of 750 RMB for coal-electricity profit sharing, and is currently within the expected fourth target price range of 800-860 RMB [1][2]. Thermal Coal Market Analysis - The recent increase in thermal coal prices is attributed to a combination of supply contraction and a surge in demand, particularly due to heating needs from a cold wave in northern regions and accelerated port restocking [2]. - The price of coking coal at Jing Tang Port is reported at 1860 RMB/ton, rebounding from a low of 1230 RMB in July, while coking coal futures have risen from 719 RMB in June to 1192 RMB, reflecting a cumulative increase of 65.79% [2]. Investment Logic - The price of thermal coal is expected to follow a four-step process: restoring central and local long-term contracts, achieving coal-electricity profit sharing, and surpassing the breakeven point for power plants, which is projected at 860 RMB [3]. - The price of coking coal is influenced more by market dynamics, with a significant correlation to thermal coal prices. The current ratio of coking coal to thermal coal prices is 2.4, suggesting target prices for coking coal of 1608 RMB, 1680 RMB, 1800 RMB, and 2064 RMB corresponding to the four target levels of thermal coal [3]. Investment Recommendations - The coal sector is positioned for potential gains due to both cyclical recovery and dividend stability. The current prices of thermal and coking coal are still at historical lows, providing room for upward movement [4][5]. - The report highlights four main investment lines: 1. Cyclical logic with stocks like Jinko Coal and Yanzhou Coal for thermal coal, and Pingmei Shenma and Huabei Mining for metallurgical coal 2. Dividend logic with companies like China Shenhua and Zhongmei Energy 3. Diversified aluminum elasticity with companies like Shenhuo Co. and Electric Power Investment 4. Growth logic with companies like Xinjie Energy and Guanghui Energy [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the coal mining industry [1] Core Views - The coal mining industry is experiencing a tightening supply due to reduced production and imports, with October coal production down 2.3% year-on-year, and imports down 9.76% [6][25] - Demand has significantly improved in October, primarily driven by increased coal consumption in thermal power and chemical industries, while the construction and metallurgy sectors have shown a decline [6][26] - The report highlights a notable increase in coal prices, with port prices rising by 56 yuan/ton in October, reflecting the improved supply-demand dynamics [10][11] Supply Side Summary - Coal production in October was 407 million tons, a decrease of 2.3% year-on-year, with daily production averaging 13.12 million tons, down 596,000 tons from the previous month [4][19] - The decline in production is attributed to maintenance, adverse weather, and stricter safety checks [6][19] - Coal imports in October were 41.74 million tons, down 9.76% year-on-year, with a cumulative import of 388 million tons from January to October, reflecting an 11.0% decrease [25][26] Demand Side Summary - Thermal power generation increased by 7.3% year-on-year in October, reversing a decline from September [6][26] - The total industrial electricity generation in October was 800.2 billion kWh, up 7.9% year-on-year, with a daily average of 25.81 billion kWh [5][18] - Chemical industry coal consumption rose significantly, with a year-on-year increase of 35.38% in October [10][26] Inventory Summary - By the end of October, coal inventories at production enterprises decreased by 135,000 tons, while inventories at northern ports increased by 432,000 tons [10][11] - The report notes that inland power plants have increased their coal inventories, indicating a trend towards replenishment as winter approaches [10][11] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on robust coal companies such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and China Coal Energy, which exhibit strong cash flow and profitability [10][12] - It emphasizes the value attributes of the coal sector, particularly in light of the current market conditions and potential for price increases [10][11]