恒力石化股份有限公司 证券代码：600346 证券简称：恒力石化 公告编号：2025-041 恒力石化股份有限公司 关于2024年度第一期短期融资券（科创票据） 兑付完成的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 恒力石化股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）于2024年7月12日在全国银行间 市场成功发行了2024年度第一期短期融资券（科创票据）。本期短期融资券发行 总额10亿元人民币，票面利率2.20%，期限为365日，兑付日期为2025年7月15日。 具体内容详见公司于2024年7月16日在指定信息披露媒体及上海证券交易所网站 （www.sse.com.cn）披露的《关于2024年度第一期短期融资券（科创票据）发行 结果的公告》（公告编号：2024-044）。 截止本公告日，公司已完成2024年度第一期短期融资券（科创票据）兑付工 作，本息兑付总额为102,200万元人民币。 特此公告。 恒力石化股份有限公司董事会 2025 年 7 月 15 日 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the petrochemical industry, highlighting potential recovery in polyester and refining sectors [2][14]. Core Insights - The EIA has revised down its natural gas price forecasts due to rising inventories, with the third-quarter price expected at $3.37 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) and the fourth quarter at $3.99 MMBtu [2][3]. - U.S. natural gas inventories reached 30,060 billion cubic feet, significantly above the five-year average, indicating a clear accumulation trend [6]. - Oil prices have shown an upward trend, with Brent crude futures closing at $70.36 per barrel, reflecting a 3.02% increase week-over-week [18]. - The report anticipates a downward adjustment in oil prices due to widening supply-demand dynamics, although OPEC production cuts and shale oil cost support may maintain prices at mid-high levels [2][18]. Summary by Sections Natural Gas Market - The EIA has lowered its natural gas price forecasts for Q3 and Q4 2025, with average prices expected at $3.67 and $4.41 per MMBtu for 2025 and 2026, respectively [2][3]. - U.S. natural gas production reached 11.68 billion cubic feet per day in Q2 2025, a year-on-year increase of 4.7 billion cubic feet per day [6]. - Solar power is increasingly substituting natural gas in electricity generation, with a projected 3% decline in gas-fired generation in 2025 [11]. Upstream Sector - Brent crude oil prices increased to $70.36 per barrel, while WTI prices rose to $68.45 per barrel, with weekly average prices showing gains of 2.34% and 2.44%, respectively [18]. - U.S. commercial crude oil inventories rose to 426 million barrels, with gasoline inventories decreasing to 229 million barrels [19]. - The number of active drilling rigs in the U.S. decreased to 537, down 2 from the previous week and 47 year-on-year [29]. Refining Sector - The Singapore refining margin for major products decreased to $13.70 per barrel, reflecting a decline of $0.31 per barrel week-over-week [50]. - The report notes that refining profitability is expected to improve as oil prices adjust downward, with domestic refining product margins still at low levels [48]. Polyester Sector - The report highlights a recovery expectation in the polyester sector, with improved profitability anticipated as supply-demand dynamics stabilize [14]. - Key companies to watch include Tongkun Co. and Wankai New Materials, which are expected to benefit from this recovery [14]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading refining companies such as Hengli Petrochemical, Rongsheng Petrochemical, and Sinopec, which are expected to benefit from improved competitive dynamics [14]. - It also suggests monitoring companies in the upstream exploration and production sector, particularly offshore oil service firms like CNOOC Services and Offshore Oil Engineering, which are projected to see performance improvements [14].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints The report presents a weekly update on the large refining and chemical industry, covering various aspects such as price trends, profit margins, inventory levels, and开工 rates in different sectors including polyester, refining, and chemicals. It also provides data on the stock performance and earnings forecasts of major private refining and chemical companies [2][8][9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Big Refining Weekly Data Briefing - **Stock Performance and Earnings Forecast**: The report tracks the price changes of 6 major private refining companies over different time - frames (weekly, monthly, quarterly, yearly, and year - to - date in 2025). It also provides earnings forecasts for these companies from 2024 to 2027, including total market capitalization, net profit attributable to shareholders, PE, and PB [8]. - **Oil Prices and Refining Spreads**: International crude oil prices (Brent and WTI) decreased this week. The domestic refining project spread remained stable with a 0.0% week - on - week change, while the foreign refining project spread decreased by 9.4% week - on - week [8]. - **Polyester Sector**: - **Raw Materials and Intermediate Products**: PX average price decreased by $17.0/ton week - on - week, and its spread over crude oil decreased by $29.4/ton. MEG price increased by 14.3 yuan/ton, and PTA price decreased by 185.0 yuan/ton. - **Polyester Filament**: POY, FDY, and DTY prices decreased, and their profit margins also declined. Inventory levels of POY, FDY, and DTY increased, while the开工 rate of polyester filament increased to 91.9%. The downstream weaving开工 rate decreased to 56.2%, and the raw material inventory of weaving enterprises decreased, while the finished product inventory increased [2][9]. - **Other Polyester Products**: The price of polyester staple fiber decreased, but its profit margin increased. The price of polyester bottle - grade chips decreased, and its profit margin also decreased [9]. - **Refining Sector**: - **Domestic Refined Oil**: The prices of gasoline, diesel, and aviation kerosene in China decreased this week. - **US Refined Oil**: The prices of gasoline, diesel, and aviation kerosene in the US increased this week. - **European and Singaporean Refined Oil**: The prices of refined oil products in Europe and Singapore showed different trends, with some increasing and some decreasing [9]. - **Chemical Sector**: The prices and spreads of various chemical products such as pure benzene, styrene, acrylonitrile, and polyethylene decreased to varying degrees [9]. 3.2 Big Refining Weekly Report - **2.1 Big Refining Index and Project Spread Trends**: The report may contain data on the performance of the big refining index and the spread trends of domestic and foreign refining projects, but specific data is not fully presented in the provided text [11][12]. - **2.2 Polyester Sector**: It includes multiple data series related to the polyester sector, such as the relationship between crude oil, PX, PTA, and polyester filament prices, profit margins,开工 rates, inventory levels, and production and sales rates [22][23][37]. - **2.3 Refining Sector**: It provides detailed data on the relationship between crude oil and refined oil prices (gasoline, diesel, and aviation kerosene) in different regions (China, the US, Europe, and Singapore), including price spreads and changes [79][89][94]. - **2.4 Chemical Sector**: It presents data on the relationship between crude oil and various chemical product prices (such as polyethylene, polypropylene, EVA, etc.), including price spreads and changes [129][130][134].

Core Viewpoint - The high-performance materials industry in China is experiencing rapid growth driven by policy support, market demand, and technological innovation, becoming a crucial pillar for economic stability. The industry is expected to reach a total output value of 8.48 trillion yuan in 2024, maintaining double-digit growth for 14 consecutive years, with a market size projected to be 8.78 trillion yuan [1][10]. Group 1: Industry Definition and Classification - High-performance materials are defined as newly emerged materials with superior properties or special functions, or traditional materials that have significantly improved performance or gained new functions. They are essential for extreme environments and high-end applications, primarily used in aerospace, energy, electronics, medical, and defense sectors. The main categories include advanced basic materials, key strategic materials, and frontier new materials [1][12]. Group 2: Development Environment and Policies - The Chinese government has implemented various policies to promote the research and development of high-performance materials, recognizing them as a foundational and strategic industry. Key policies include encouraging foreign investment in new materials and prioritizing the development of advanced materials such as graphene and biodegradable materials [5][6]. Group 3: Current Industry Status - The high-performance materials industry in China has evolved from a weak foundation to a robust sector, with expectations for future development to focus on intelligence and sustainability, integrating high technology with emerging industries [7][23]. Group 4: Industry Chain - The industry chain for high-performance materials includes upstream sectors such as steel, non-ferrous metals, rare earths, petrochemical products, and polymers; midstream focuses on R&D and production; and downstream applications span new information technology, renewable energy, automotive, home appliances, medical, environmental protection, aerospace, and rail transportation [12][14]. Group 5: Competitive Landscape - The market is characterized by competition among foreign enterprises, large state-owned enterprises, and private companies. Foreign firms dominate the high-end market, while domestic companies primarily serve the mid-range market. Notable companies include Wanhua Chemical, Ganfeng Lithium, Hengli Petrochemical, and North Rare Earth [16][18]. Group 6: Key Enterprises - Major players in the high-performance materials sector include: - Wanhua Chemical, which operates globally and focuses on various chemical and new material sectors [17][19]. - Ganfeng Lithium, which covers the entire lithium battery supply chain from resource extraction to battery manufacturing [18]. - Hengli Petrochemical, recognized for its extensive production capabilities in petrochemicals and new materials [21]. - North Rare Earth, which has established a significant production base for rare earth materials [18]. Group 7: Future Development Trends - The high-performance materials industry is transitioning from self-sufficiency in low-end products to independent R&D of mid-to-high-end products, with increasing domestic competitiveness. The rapid development of emerging industries like renewable energy and smart manufacturing is driving innovation in high-performance materials, leading to new application scenarios and a promising market outlook [23][25].

Core Viewpoint - The functional release film market in China is projected to maintain a scale of over 22 billion yuan from 2021 to 2024, with a forecasted market size of 23.37 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.4% [5][11][24] Group 1: Industry Overview - Functional release film, known as "release film," is a type of surface film with separation functionality, primarily composed of substrate, bottom glue, and release agent [1][2] - The release film industry can be segmented into upstream (raw materials and equipment), midstream (production), and downstream (application fields) [9][11] - The main raw materials include substrate films, silicone oil, curing agents, and pressure-sensitive adhesives, which directly affect the performance and quality of release films [9][11] Group 2: Market Size and Demand - The Chinese release film market is influenced by fluctuations in downstream market demand, maintaining a scale above 22 billion yuan from 2021 to 2024 [5][11] - In 2024, the consumption structure indicates that consumer electronics will be the largest application field for release films, accounting for 49%, followed by MLCC at 36% and polarizer films at 6% [7][11] Group 3: Application Fields - In the consumer electronics sector, release films are essential for manufacturing various products, including smartphones and laptops, and are projected to reach a market size of approximately 11.39 billion yuan in 2024 [11][13] - The MLCC sector is expected to see a market size growth from 6.125 billion yuan in 2019 to 8.435 billion yuan in 2024, driven by the demand for electronic products and new energy vehicles [15][19] - In the automotive sector, the market size for release films is anticipated to exceed 1 billion yuan, reaching 1.062 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 7.8% [19][21] Group 4: Industry Players - The global release film industry features established companies such as Toray, Lintec, Mitsubishi, and COSMO, which dominate the high-end market segments [21][23] - In the domestic market, numerous small-scale manufacturers exist, with a focus on mid to low-end products, while a few larger firms are advancing in high-end material production technology [21][23] Group 5: Development Trends - The release film materials are expected to evolve towards higher-end and precision applications, driven by advancements in technology and increasing demands from high-tech industries [24][25] - The rapid development of downstream industries is prompting release film manufacturers to increase R&D investments to meet diverse customer needs [25][26] - The trend of domestic substitution is gaining momentum, with local manufacturers striving to enhance production capabilities to capture more market share in high-end segments [26][28]

Investment Rating - Investment rating: Positive (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The BOPET film industry is experiencing high domestic demand growth, but currently faces low prices and profit pressures. The industry is characterized by an oversupply of low-end products and a shortage of high-end products, leading to a structural imbalance [5][16][18] - The "China BOPET Industry Self-Discipline Initiative" aims to optimize the industry structure and improve profitability by promoting fair market conditions and reducing ineffective supply [19][6] - The market is gradually concentrating resources towards companies with cost and technological advantages, with a positive outlook for the development of high-end polyester film products [6][5] Summary by Sections BOPET Film Overview - BOPET films are widely used in packaging, optical displays, electrical applications, and photovoltaic new energy sectors. The domestic BOPET industry has seen rapid growth in capacity and consumption from 2014 to 2024, but consumption growth has not kept pace with production and capacity growth, leading to an oversupply situation [5][12][28] Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply: From 2014 to 2024, domestic BOPET capacity expanded from 2.47 million tons to 6.95 million tons, with a CAGR of 10.9%. The industry currently has a capacity of 6.482 million tons per year, with the top 10 companies accounting for 63% of total capacity [20][21] - Demand: During the same period, apparent consumption increased from 1.71 million tons to 4.15 million tons, with a CAGR of 9.3%. The packaging and printing sector accounted for 45.8% of demand in 2024 [28][30] - Imports and Exports: China has become a net exporter of BOPET since 2015, but still imports 200,000 to 300,000 tons annually, indicating reliance on high-end BOPET products [32][36] Price and Profitability - BOPET prices have been under pressure since 2022 due to supply-demand imbalances, with prices reaching historical lows in 2024. The average price in early 2025 was 8,091 RMB per ton, showing a slight year-on-year increase [41][40] - The industry has faced continuous profit pressure since 2022, with many companies transitioning from profit to loss in 2024. However, Q1 2025 showed signs of reduced losses for most companies [6][19] Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks include Dongcai Technology, Hengli Petrochemical, and Rongsheng Petrochemical, with beneficiaries including Dousheng New Materials and Yuxing Co., Ltd. [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the Basic Chemicals and Oil & Gas sectors [5]. Core Insights - The overall price spread in the industry is weak, with the CCPI-oil price spread at approximately 558, below the 30% percentile since 2012, indicating a potential turning point in the industry as supply and demand begin to recover [1][14]. - Capital expenditure growth in the chemical raw materials and products industry has significantly declined, with a year-on-year increase of only 0.4% from January to May 2025, suggesting a self-adjustment phase in the supply side [2][31]. - The domestic PMI for June 2025 is reported at 49.7, indicating a slight recovery in demand, although uncertainties remain regarding tariff policies post-July 9 [2][16]. Summary by Sections Supply Side - The industry capital expenditure growth has dropped to a low level, indicating a potential turning point for supply-side adjustments, with expectations for a recovery starting in the second half of 2025 [2][31]. - The report highlights that the competitive intensity has increased, leading to a significant decline in profitability across most sub-sectors since the second half of 2022 [2][31]. Demand Side - The report notes a recovery in domestic PMI, but uncertainties regarding tariff policies may disrupt future export orders [2][16]. - The demand for chemical products is expected to improve in the medium to long term, supported by domestic economic recovery and growth in demand from regions like Asia, Africa, and Latin America [2][16]. Investment Strategy - The report suggests that the second half of 2025 may see an upward turning point, with a focus on resilient demand and improved supply dynamics [34]. - Specific recommendations include: - Oil & Gas: Favorable long-term prospects for high-dividend companies like China Petroleum [34]. - Bulk Chemicals: Attention on refrigerants and isocyanates, with recommendations for companies like Juhua Co., Luxi Chemical, and Wanhua Chemical [34]. - Downstream Products: Recommendations for companies like Meihua Biological Technology and Xinghuo Technology, anticipating recovery in downstream demand [34]. - Export-driven chemical products: Companies like Senqilin and Sailun Tire are highlighted for their competitive advantages in exports [34]. - High-dividend assets: Companies like Hengli Petrochemical are recommended for their potential to increase dividend payouts [34].

Core Insights - The report predicts that Brent crude oil prices will fluctuate around $65-70 per barrel in the second half of 2025, driven by tight supply and slow demand growth, with potential short-term spikes due to geopolitical factors [4][9] - The petrochemical industry is expected to gradually recover from its bottoming out phase, returning to a normal capacity cycle constrained by credit boundaries, leading to a slow recovery in profitability in 2025 and beyond [4][10] - Investment opportunities are highlighted in high-quality growth stocks, coal chemical equipment investments, and high-dividend sectors, emphasizing a bottom-up investment approach [4][10] Oil Price Trends - Oil prices experienced a two-phase trend in 2025: a decline from $74.64 to $60.23 per barrel (down 19.31%) until May 3, followed by a recovery to $77.01 per barrel (up 27.86%) after May 3 due to seasonal demand and geopolitical tensions [7][25] - The report indicates that global oil supply remains tight, with non-OECD countries contributing to demand growth, which will limit the extent of price declines [9][27] Industry Performance - Global refining capacity is projected to grow by 440,000 barrels per day from 2022 to 2028, with China contributing significantly to this increase [27][33] - The report notes that domestic refined oil demand is nearing its peak, with a decline in consumption due to economic weakness and competition from electric vehicles [39][45] - The petrochemical sector is experiencing a weak recovery, with some chemical products showing improved profitability despite high raw material costs [8][45] Investment Themes - The report emphasizes four main investment themes: 1. Quality growth and leading companies in the industry experiencing volume and price increases [10] 2. Opportunities in high-end materials and technology import substitution [10] 3. Investments related to the upcoming coal chemical investment cycle [10] 4. High dividend yielding state-owned enterprises benefiting from economic recovery [10][11] Recommendations - Key investment targets include leading companies in ethylene production, coal chemical leaders, and high dividend stocks such as China National Offshore Oil Corporation and China Petroleum [11][10] - The report suggests focusing on companies that are positioned to benefit from the recovery in domestic demand and the transition to high-end materials [11][10]

1. Report Investment Rating Information - The report does not explicitly mention the investment rating for the industry [158] 2. Core Viewpoints - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of the large refining and chemical industry in the current week, covering various aspects such as project spreads, polyester, refining, and chemical sectors, and presents detailed data on prices, profits, inventories, and operating rates [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Big Refining Weekly Data Briefing 3.1.1 Stock Price and Market Value - The report tracks the stock price changes of 6 major private refining companies in the past week, month, quarter, year, and from the beginning of 2025 to date, and provides profit forecasts and related financial indicators such as market value, net profit attributable to shareholders, and price - earnings ratios [8] 3.1.2 Oil Price and Refining Spreads - International crude oil prices (Brent and WTI) have declined, with Brent at $68.0/barrel (down $1.2, -1.8% week - on - week) and WTI at $66.0/barrel (down $0.5, -0.8% week - on - week) - The spread of domestic refining projects is 2,673 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week; the spread of foreign refining projects is 1,124 yuan/ton, down 117 yuan/ton (-9% week - on - week) [8] 3.1.3 Polyester Sector - **Product Prices and Profits**: POY, FDY, and DTY prices have decreased, with POY at 6,989 yuan/ton (down 186 yuan/ton), FDY at 7,250 yuan/ton (down 229 yuan/ton), and DTY at 8,268 yuan/ton (down 161 yuan/ton). POY and DTY profits have increased, while FDY profits have decreased - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: POY, FDY, and DTY inventories have increased, with POY at 21.7 days (up 4.5 days), FDY at 22.4 days (up 3.5 days), and DTY at 28.6 days (up 3.3 days). The filament operating rate is 90.9% (up 0.4 percentage points), the loom operating rate is 58.1% (down 0.9 percentage points), the raw material inventory of weaving enterprises is 10.4 days (down 1.1 days), and the finished product inventory is 28.0 days (up 0.8 days) [2][9] 3.1.4 Refining Sector - Domestic gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel prices have declined; in the US, gasoline prices have declined, while diesel and jet fuel prices have increased [2] 3.1.5 Chemical Sector - The average price of PX is $861.7/ton (down $13.4 week - on - week), the spread to crude oil is $365.2/ton (down $4.4 week - on - week), and the PX operating rate is 84.6% (down 1.8 percentage points) [2] 3.2 Big Refining Weekly Report 3.2.1 Big Refining Index and Project Spread Trends - The report may analyze the trends of the big refining index and the spreads of domestic and foreign refining projects, but specific data and analysis are not detailed in the provided text [12] 3.2.2 Polyester Sector - Covers various aspects such as the prices and spreads of raw materials (crude oil, PX, MEG, PTA), the prices and profits of polyester products (filaments, short fibers, bottle chips), inventory levels, and operating rates [23] 3.2.3 Refining Sector - Analyzes the prices and spreads of domestic and foreign refined oil products (gasoline, diesel, jet fuel) and their relationships with crude oil prices [80] 3.2.4 Chemical Sector - Analyzes the prices and spreads of various chemical products (polyethylene, polypropylene, EVA, etc.) and their relationships with crude oil prices [136]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the oil and petrochemical industry, indicating a "Buy" rating for specific companies within the sector [4][5]. Core Insights - OPEC has announced an unexpected production increase of 548,000 barrels per day for August, but the actual impact of this increase remains to be observed [4][5]. - The upstream sector is experiencing a downward trend in oil prices, with Brent crude oil futures closing at $68.3 per barrel, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.78% [4][18]. - The refining sector is seeing mixed results, with overseas refined oil crack spreads declining, while olefin price spreads show varied trends [4][47]. - The polyester sector is facing profitability challenges, but there are expectations for recovery as supply and demand improve [4][13]. Summary by Sections Upstream Sector - OPEC's actual production increase has been lower than expected, with April's total production at approximately 31.1 million barrels per day, a decrease of 210,000 barrels from the previous month [4][8]. - The U.S. oil rig count decreased to 539, down 8 from the previous week and down 46 year-on-year [31][32]. - The report anticipates a widening supply-demand trend in crude oil, with potential downward pressure on prices, but expects prices to stabilize at mid-high levels due to OPEC's production cuts and shale oil cost support [4][18]. Refining Sector - The Singapore refining margin for major products was $14.01 per barrel, down $2.46 from the previous week [51]. - The U.S. gasoline RBOB-WTI spread was $22.37 per barrel, up $0.53 from the previous week, with a historical average of $24.86 per barrel [56]. - The report suggests that refining profitability may improve as economic recovery progresses, despite current low levels [4][47]. Polyester Sector - The PTA price has seen a decline, with the average price in East China at 4,971.4 yuan per ton, down 3.26% week-on-week [4][13]. - The report highlights a potential recovery in the polyester industry, with expectations for improved profitability as supply-demand dynamics shift positively [4][13]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in the polyester sector such as Tongkun Co. and Wankai New Materials, as well as top refining companies like Hengli Petrochemical and Sinopec [4][13]. - It also suggests that the upstream exploration and development sector remains robust, with high capital expenditure expected to continue, particularly for offshore oil service companies [4][13].