Economic Growth and Development - Dalian's GDP is projected to reach 1,000.21 billion yuan by 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.7% at constant prices, marking a significant milestone in the city's high-quality development [9] - The city aims to enhance its economic structure by focusing on traditional industry upgrades and the cultivation of strategic emerging industries, with notable projects like Hengli New Materials and Chery Automobile's KD packaging center coming online [13] - The industrial output value of Dalian is expected to grow by 11.7% year-on-year, supported by a robust performance in both traditional and emerging sectors [13] Consumption and Investment - Dalian's consumption initiatives have successfully stimulated 18.7 billion yuan in consumer spending, with a ratio of 1:8 in terms of economic impact [14] - The city has seen a 20% increase in domestic tourists and a 20.4% rise in tourism revenue, alongside a 70.2% growth in inbound tourism, achieving record highs [14] - A total of 1,369 projects worth over 100 million yuan were initiated or resumed, representing a 14.1% increase year-on-year [14] Foreign Trade and Investment - Dalian established 286 new foreign-invested enterprises, with foreign trade exports increasing by approximately 10% [15] - The city has seen a significant boost in cross-border e-commerce, with over 200 new enterprises and a 16% increase in cross-border e-commerce import and export volume [15] Innovation and Technology - Dalian is accelerating the construction of a nationally influential regional technology innovation center, with 25 research fields and 398 laboratories established [18] - The local technology transfer rate exceeds 45%, with a 10% increase in the value of technology contracts [18] Infrastructure and Urban Development - Major infrastructure projects, including the Hengli Heavy Industry Phase II and the construction of the Jinzhou Bay International Airport, are progressing rapidly [14] - The city is enhancing its business environment with 77 application scenarios for efficient service delivery and over 90% of government services available online [17] Social Development and Quality of Life - In 2025, Dalian's public spending on social welfare accounted for 86.4% of fiscal expenditures, with a focus on improving employment, education, and healthcare services [20] - The city is set to expand its focus on public welfare projects from 15 to 23 in 2026, emphasizing practical and inclusive development [20]

2026.01. 26 本文字数：2633，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财经 魏中原 近期A股春季行情中，化工板块表现亮眼，成为市场焦点。万华化学（600309.SH）、恒力石化（600346.SH）、华鲁恒升（600426.SH）等龙头股迭创 阶段新高，环氧丙烷等化工品价格持续上涨，带动相关个股表现强劲。数据显示，1月19日至23日，基础化工板块上涨7.29%，在申万31个行业中排名第 四，该行业1月以来累计涨逾13%，跑赢电子与通信。 在以科技为主线的本轮牛市行情中，资金开始拥抱化工现象背后，是化工行业从2021年高点后经过四年低迷，正逐步走出周期底部，迎来景气度反转。 随着上市公司2025年度业绩预告密集披露，化工板块的"春意"渐浓，多家龙头化工企业的"扭亏""预增"公告，如同预告着行业基本面的回暖，行业盈利回 升趋势明显，为板块估值修复提供了坚实支撑，市场正对化工板块进行重新定价。 除了上述龙头，一批公司在报告期内实现了惊人的增长弹性或彻底的困境反转。例如，农药行业的利民股份、利尔化学等公司均预计去年净利润增幅超过 100%。更有多家公司成功"扭亏为盈"，如康达新材（002669.SZ）、万凯新 ...

Group 1: Natural Gas Market Insights - US natural gas prices saw a significant increase on January 25, with futures prices reaching $6 per million British thermal units for the first time since 2022 [1] - EIA forecasts a natural gas average price of $3.46 and $4.59 per million British thermal units for 2026 and 2027, respectively, indicating a downward adjustment in price expectations [2] - Companies involved in the natural gas industry include Sinopec, which engages in the entire value chain from extraction to end supply [3] Group 2: Oil Market Insights - Three major institutions have raised their oil supply forecasts, with EIA predicting a surplus of 2.83 million barrels per day in global crude oil supply by 2026 [2] - The average crude oil prices are projected to be $56 and $54 per barrel for 2026 and 2027, respectively [2] - Sinopec is involved in upstream oil resource development, while Shanghai Petrochemical focuses on refining and production of refined oil products [5][6] Group 3: Petrochemical Industry Insights - Sinopec manufactures basic petrochemical products such as olefins and aromatics, covering multiple segments of the petrochemical value chain [8] - Hengli Petrochemical operates in an integrated refining and petrochemical business model, processing raw materials into manufactured products [8] - Hongchuan Wisdom provides storage and logistics services for petrochemical products, participating in the warehousing and distribution segment of the petrochemical industry [9]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Hengli Petrochemical has shown significant stock price growth and financial performance, with a notable increase in share price and market activity in recent trading sessions [1][2]. - As of January 26, Hengli Petrochemical's stock price increased by 18.42% year-to-date, with a 6.38% rise in the last five trading days and a 49.72% increase over the past 60 days [1]. - The company's main business segments include refining products (45.92% of revenue), PTA (31.10%), polyester products (19.24%), and others (3.73%) [1]. Group 2 - As of September 30, the number of shareholders for Hengli Petrochemical decreased by 9.54% to 67,300, while the average number of circulating shares per person increased by 10.55% to 104,566 shares [2]. - For the period from January to September 2025, Hengli Petrochemical reported a revenue of 157.38 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11.46%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 5.02 billion yuan, down 1.61% year-on-year [2]. - The company has distributed a total of 26.14 billion yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with 7.60 billion yuan distributed in the last three years [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the petrochemical industry, indicating a favorable investment environment [4]. Core Insights - Three major institutions have raised their oil supply forecasts, with the EIA predicting a global surplus of 2.83 million barrels per day for this year [6][16]. - The EIA has adjusted its 2026 oil price forecast upward to an average of $56 per barrel, while lowering the natural gas price forecast to $3.46 per million British thermal units [7][11]. - The IEA expects a demand increase of 930,000 barrels per day in 2026, while OPEC and EIA have slightly reduced their demand forecasts [11][16]. Supply and Demand Summary - The EIA has raised its global oil supply forecast for this year by 120,000 barrels per day, while the IEA has increased its forecast by 100,000 barrels per day [13][16]. - The EIA anticipates that global oil production will rise by 1.37 million barrels per day in 2026, with OPEC+ contributing approximately 1.13 million barrels per day [15][16]. - The IEA projects a global oil supply increase of 2.5 million barrels per day in 2026, reaching 108.7 million barrels per day [16]. Price Trends Summary - The price of butadiene has surged over 28% since the beginning of the year, driven by a narrowing price spread between naphtha and ethylene [17]. - As of January 23, the spot price of butadiene reached 10,700 yuan per ton [17]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on high-quality companies in the polyester sector, such as Tongkun Co. and Wankai New Materials, due to tightening supply and improving market conditions [21]. - It suggests monitoring major refining companies like Hengli Petrochemical, Rongsheng Petrochemical, and Dongfang Shenghong, as refining margins are expected to improve [21]. - The report also highlights the potential of offshore oil service companies like CNOOC Services and Haiyou Engineering, given the high capital expenditure in offshore exploration [21].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for the basic chemical industry [5] Core Views - The report highlights that the spandex industry is at a turning point, with prices reaching historical lows and recent price increases indicating a recovery in the industry [1][2] - The report emphasizes the limited new capacity in the spandex sector and the exit of outdated capacity, suggesting a favorable supply-demand balance and a positive outlook for the spandex industry [2] - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to enhance the recovery of the "refining-chemical fiber" industry chain, with improvements in market competition and supply-demand dynamics [3] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - Spandex prices have dropped from a peak of 83,750 yuan/ton in 2021 to 23,600 yuan/ton in early January 2026, a decline of 72% [1] - The report notes that spandex production capacity in China is projected to grow from 925,000 tons in 2020 to 1,430,000 tons by 2025, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.6% [2] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The apparent consumption of spandex in China is expected to increase from 720,000 tons in 2020 to 1,060,000 tons by 2025, with a CAGR of 6.7% [2] - The report indicates that the spandex industry is entering a recovery phase due to the reduction in new capacity and the exit of outdated production [2] Policy Impact - The "anti-involution" policy aims to optimize market competition and improve the supply-demand balance in the refining and chemical fiber sectors [3] - The report suggests that the refining industry is nearing the end of capacity expansion, which is expected to improve supply-demand dynamics [3] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in the polyester filament sector such as Hengli Petrochemical, Rongsheng Petrochemical, and Dongfang Shenghong, as well as spandex companies like Huafeng Chemical and Xinxiang Chemical Fiber [4]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Positive" [5] Core Viewpoints - The PVC industry is expected to undergo continuous revaluation due to its high energy consumption and carbon emissions, particularly as China approaches its carbon peak during the 14th Five-Year Plan. The supply side may face strict controls, leading to potential reductions in production quotas. The demand for PVC in developing regions such as Africa and Latin America is anticipated to drive growth, despite the challenges posed by domestic production constraints [2][7] - The petrochemical industry is experiencing an upward trend in profitability, driven by significant price increases in key products such as butadiene rubber, PX, PTA, styrene, and ethylene glycol. The market's expectations for improved demand in 2026 are contributing to this positive outlook, with potential adjustments in operational strategies by leading companies likely to reshape supply and demand dynamics [7] Summary by Relevant Sections Investment Suggestions and Targets - The report recommends several companies across various sub-sectors, including: - MDI leader: Wanhua Chemical (600309, Buy) - PVC-related companies: Zhongtai Chemical (002092, Not Rated), Xinjiang Tianye (600075, Not Rated), Chlor-alkali Chemical (600618, Not Rated), Tianyuan Co., Ltd. (002386, Not Rated) - Refining sector leaders: Sinopec (600028, Buy), Rongsheng Petrochemical (002493, Buy), Hengli Petrochemical (600346, Buy) - Phosphate chemical companies benefiting from energy storage growth: Chuanheng Co., Ltd. (002895, Not Rated), Yuntianhua (600096, Not Rated) - Oxalic acid sector: Hualu Hengsheng (600426, Buy), Huayi Group (600623, Buy), Wankai New Materials (301216, Buy) [3]

Core Viewpoint - Hengli Petrochemical's revenue from exports to the European Union accounted for only 0.39% of its total revenue in the third quarter, indicating a limited exposure to the EU market [1] Group 1 - The company reported that a significant portion of its exports to EU customers is conducted directly from domestic entities, with a smaller fraction being sold through third-party trading [1]

证券日报网讯 1月23日，恒力石化（600346）在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，原油价格上涨，传导 至下游产品中，价格会随之上涨，量稳价升的情况下会带动销售增长，但是原油价格影响的产品种类较 多，无法直接决定产品的价差和盈利情况。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes that the petrochemical cycle is on an upward trend, driven by three main conditions: rising oil prices from the bottom, supply-side capacity clearance, and demand-side stimulation through a loose monetary environment [1][2] - The report predicts that by 2025, oil prices will stabilize at around $50 to $60 per barrel, nearing historical lows, with the World Bank forecasting moderate GDP growth in 2026 and 2027 [1][2] - The report highlights that the reduction in capital expenditure and the clearance of outdated capacity will be key drivers for the improvement of the cycle, with China's refining enterprises expected to see a significant convergence in the ratio of capital expenditure to depreciation starting in 2024 [1][2] Group 2 - The "anti-involution" policy is effectively controlling capacity, with the government setting a cap of 1 billion tons on refining capacity, signaling the end of the expansion cycle [2] - The report notes that the price spread between naphtha and ethylene has dropped to its lowest point in November 2025, but has since recovered, indicating a positive price transmission mechanism in the industry [2] - The report anticipates that global oil supply and demand will improve in 2026, with Brent crude oil prices expected to fluctuate between $55 and $75 per barrel, benefiting refining profitability [2] Group 3 - The report discusses the increasing influence of China's petrochemical sector on the global stage, as high energy prices in Europe have led to capacity clearance among Western chemical companies, creating a trend of "West retreating and East advancing" [3] - China's private refining enterprises are showing strong profitability resilience and are expected to continue outperforming international petrochemical leaders [3] - The report suggests that the valuation of leading private refining companies in China is at a relative low point, with potential for significant valuation increases if return on equity (ROE) improves [3]