Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is at a critical point of style rebalancing by the end of 2025, with the ongoing "anti-involution" policy reshaping the investment logic in cyclical industries [2] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Since Q3 2025, the A-share market has shown a significant "technology + cyclical" dual-driven pattern, indicating a transition from a single growth line to a balanced allocation of "growth + value" [4] - The performance improvement in cyclical sectors is sustainable, with a 23% year-on-year increase in the exit scale of backward production capacity in industries like chemicals and non-ferrous metals as of Q3 2025 [4] Group 2: Drivers of Market Style Shift - Three main supports for the current market style switch include: 1. The technology sector's significant cumulative increase, with the electronics industry up 45% and communication equipment over 38% year-to-date as of November 2025, far exceeding the 14.7% rise of the CSI 300 index [6] 2. Institutional holdings in the technology sector nearing historical peaks, with TMT sector holdings surpassing 40.16% [6] 3. Clear policy signals from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology regarding the chemical industry, enhancing the certainty of supply-side contraction in cyclical industries [6] Group 3: Chemical Industry Insights - The core logic for supply-side improvement in the chemical industry is driven by "downward capacity cycles + policy-guided exit," with fixed asset investment in the chemical raw materials sector decreasing by 5.6% year-on-year from January to September 2025 [8][11] - The chemical industry has significant advantages over traditional cyclical industries in capacity optimization efficiency, industry collaboration, and high-end transformation paths [12] Group 4: Demand Recovery - The recovery in demand for the chemical industry is supported by both domestic and overseas factors, with domestic engines including improved real estate conditions and a resurgence in textile exports [13][14] - China's chemical product sales have maintained the top global position, with sales amounting to approximately €2.24 trillion in 2023, accounting for 43.1% of global sales [16][17] Group 5: Investment Opportunities in the Chemical Sector - Investment opportunities in the chemical industry under the anti-involution wave include: 1. Selecting leading companies with strong management and cost control [20] 2. Focusing on three reversal areas: petrochemicals, coal chemicals, and polyester filament + PTA, with specific companies highlighted for their potential [21][22][23]

| 倒计时21天 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 2025（第十届）起点锂电行业年会暨锂电金鼎奖颁奖典礼 | | | | &起点研究十周年庆典 | | | | 2025起点用户侧储能及电池技术论坛 | | | | 活动主题： 新周期 | 新技术 | 新生态 | | 活动时间： 2025年12月18-19日 | | | | 活动地址： 深圳市维纳斯皇家酒店（深圳国际会展中心京基百纳店）二楼维纳斯厅（深圳市宝安区沙井 | | | | 镇沙井路118号） | | | | 主办单位： 起点锂电、起点固态电池、起点储能、起点研究院SPIR | | | | 活动规模： 线下2000+，在线直播观看30000+ | | | | 第一批赞助及演讲单位： 海辰储能/融捷能源/瑞浦兰钧/逸飞激光/鹏辉能源/赣锋锂电/多氟多/保力新/ | | | | 远东电池/国轩吉美泰/诺达智慧/创明新能源/孚能科技/德赛电池/陀普科技/蓝京新能源/中比新能源/北 | | | | 测新能源/亿鑫丰/达力智能/金力股份/苏州莫洛奇/鑫晟达/先导智能/恩捷股份/尚太科技/超业精密/科 | | | | 迈罗/东唐智能/贤辰智享 ...

Market Overview - The refining and trading sector increased by 1.32% compared to the previous trading day, with Heshun Petroleum leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3875.26, up 0.29%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12875.19, down 0.25% [1] Stock Performance - Heshun Petroleum (603353) closed at 30.03, up 10.00% with a trading volume of 202,500 shares and a turnover of 586 million yuan [1] - Other notable performers include Tongkun Co. (601233) up 2.69%, Hengli Petrochemical (600346) up 2.45%, and Hengyi Petrochemical (000703) up 2.35% [1] - The overall trading volume and turnover for the refining and trading sector showed significant activity, indicating investor interest [1] Capital Flow - The refining and trading sector saw a net inflow of 8.46 million yuan from main funds, while retail funds experienced a net inflow of 20.74 million yuan [2] - However, speculative funds recorded a net outflow of 29.20 million yuan, indicating a mixed sentiment among different types of investors [2] Individual Stock Capital Flow - China Petroleum (601857) had a main fund net outflow of 58.94 million yuan, while Heshun Petroleum (603353) saw a net inflow of 57.42 million yuan [3] - Hengli Petrochemical (600346) also experienced a significant net inflow of 36.32 million yuan from main funds, reflecting strong institutional interest [3] - The capital flow data suggests varying levels of confidence in different stocks within the sector [3]

11月27日，恒力石化盘中上涨2.07%，截至13:30，报18.74元/股，成交1.86亿元，换手率0.14%，总市值 1319.13亿元。 资金流向方面，主力资金净流入907.40万元，特大单买入357.45万元，占比1.93%，卖出935.22万元，占 比5.04%；大单买入3771.96万元，占比20.32%，卖出2286.79万元，占比12.32%。 恒力石化今年以来股价涨26.45%，近5个交易日跌1.73%，近20日涨5.16%，近60日涨9.08%。 截至9月30日，恒力石化股东户数6.73万，较上期减少9.54%；人均流通股104566股，较上期增加 10.55%。2025年1月-9月，恒力石化实现营业收入1574.67亿元，同比减少11.46%；归母净利润50.23亿 元，同比减少1.61%。 分红方面，恒力石化A股上市后累计派现261.36亿元。近三年，累计派现76.02亿元。 机构持仓方面，截止2025年9月30日，恒力石化十大流通股东中，香港中央结算有限公司位居第五大流 通股东，持股2.04亿股，相比上期减少3558.18万股。华泰柏瑞沪深300ETF（510300）位居第十大流通 ...

内容概要：聚乳酸（PLA）降解塑料是以可再生植物资源为原料制成的生物基可降解材料，按乳酸单体 结构及共聚方式分为PLLA、PDLA等多类型，适配包装、医疗等多场景，相较传统石油基塑料具有原 料可再生、碳排放低、生物相容性好等核心优势，是政策支持下的优质环保替代材料。在全球绿色低碳 共识与国内"禁塑限塑""双碳"政策体系双重驱动下，全球及中国生物可降解材料市场规模与产能均快速 增长，PLA作为主流品类已实现规模化应用，中长期仍将保持市场主导地位。国内行业呈现头部企业引 领、中外差异化竞争格局，丰原集团、海正生材等本土龙头推进全产业链布局，跨国企业深耕高端市 场，中小企业聚焦细分领域；未来行业将持续突破核心技术、优化产品性能与成本，拓展高附加值应用 场景，构建可持续循环体系，实现规模化、高端化、绿色化高质量发展。 上市企业：金发科技（600143.SH）、海正生材（688203.SH）、中仑新材（301565.SZ）、中粮科技 （000930.SZ）、中国化学（601117.SH）、恒力石化（600346.SH）、金丹科技（300829.SZ） 相关企业：安徽丰原集团有限公司、安徽生建可降解聚乳酸新材料有限公司、 ...

Core Viewpoint - The petrochemical industry is at a significant turning point driven by policies aimed at "controlling growth and reducing inventory" [1][2] Group 1: Policy Implications - The "controlling growth" strategy is central to the long-term improvement of the industry, as outlined in the "Petrochemical and Chemical Industry Stabilization Growth Work Plan," which emphasizes scientific regulation of major project construction and strict control of new refining capacity [2] - The "reducing inventory" approach focuses on addressing current contradictions, with safety, environmental protection, and energy efficiency being key policy drivers [2] Group 2: Industry Cycle and Capacity - The industry is nearing the end of its production cycle, with significant slowdowns in capacity growth expected by 2026 for most products [1][4] - Despite high operating rates, the industry has not experienced severe oversupply, with average capacity growth for various petrochemical products exceeding 10% per year from 2019 to 2025 [3] Group 3: Future Outlook - By 2026, the production growth rate of most petrochemical products is expected to decline significantly, leading to improved capacity utilization in sectors like PX, polyester filament, methanol, and acetic acid [4] - The industry is anticipated to transition from localized recovery to comprehensive improvement between 2027 and 2028, supported by high entry barriers and reduced new capacity growth [4] Group 4: Profitability and Investment Recommendations - The PX industry chain is projected to provide significant profit elasticity for refining companies in 2026, driven by supply-demand imbalances and external factors such as sanctions and refinery attacks affecting oil exports [5] - Recommended stocks include Hengli Petrochemical, Rongsheng Petrochemical, Hengyi Petrochemical, Dongfang Shenghong, and Sinopec, with a suggestion to pay attention to Huajin Co [5]

Core Viewpoint - Hengli Petrochemical is focusing on optimizing operations, reducing debt, and enhancing dividends, aiming to establish itself as a high-profit, high-dividend, low-debt growth and return-oriented listed company [3] Group 1: Company Overview - Hengli Petrochemical is one of the earliest private refining enterprises in China, with a comprehensive capacity including a 20 million tons/year integrated refining project, a 5 million tons/year modern coal chemical facility, a 1.5 million tons/year ethylene project, and a 16.6 million tons/year PTA facility [1] - The company has built a modern industrial system integrating "world-class chemical refining + modern coal chemical facilities," supporting a "big chemical" strategy that deeply integrates oil and coal [1] - Hengli Petrochemical has a well-established capacity layout in downstream chemical new materials, including differentiated fibers, functional films, engineering plastics, and biodegradable new materials [1] Group 2: Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of this year, Hengli Petrochemical achieved an operating income of 157.384 billion yuan and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 5.023 billion yuan, with an operating cash flow of 20.134 billion yuan [2] - The company reported a single-quarter profit of 1.972 billion yuan in the third quarter, representing a year-on-year increase of 81.47% and a significant improvement compared to the second quarter [2] - The overall price trend this year has stabilized, leading to a steady improvement in gross profit margins compared to the same period last year [2] Group 3: Strategic Focus - Hengli Petrochemical plans to conclude its current round of project construction and capital expenditure this year, shifting its operational focus towards refined cost control [3] - The company aims to enhance its cost moat and implement continuous cost improvements based on internal efficiency gains, while accelerating high value-added technological upgrades and boutique project construction [2][3] - Hengli Petrochemical has implemented a stable and sustainable cash dividend policy, having distributed a total of 26.1 billion yuan in cash dividends since its listing, which accounts for 40.43% of the cumulative net profit attributable to shareholders during the dividend period [3]

Group 1 - The report emphasizes a dual-driven strategy where technology and cyclical sectors are rebalanced, highlighting opportunities in the chemical industry under the "anti-involution" trend [4][14][15] - The report notes that from Q3 2025, both technology and cyclical sectors have shown synchronized growth, indicating a shift in market dynamics [15][18] - The chemical industry is expected to benefit from a recovery in supply-demand dynamics, with capital expenditure nearing its end and a significant decrease in ongoing projects [4][5][25] Group 2 - The chemical sector is positioned to enter a new cycle of prosperity, driven by the "anti-involution" policy, which is expected to enhance both performance and valuation [5][31][65] - The report identifies that the chemical industry has advantages over traditional cyclical sectors like steel and coal, particularly in capacity optimization and high-end transformation paths [25][30] - The report highlights that the chemical industry is experiencing a significant reduction in capital expenditure, with a 10% year-on-year decrease in ongoing projects as of H1 2025 [25][33] Group 3 - The report suggests that the domestic demand is stabilizing, supported by government policies aimed at boosting consumption, which is expected to benefit the chemical sector [35][42] - The chemical industry has shown resilience in exports despite trade tensions, with a notable increase in export volumes to ASEAN, EU, and India [42][47] - The report indicates that the chemical industry is likely to see a dual uplift in performance and valuation, particularly when compared to the refrigerant sector, which is currently experiencing high demand [66][68]

Market Overview - The refining and trading sector experienced a decline of 2.15% on November 24, with Heshun Petroleum leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3836.77, up 0.05%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12585.08, up 0.37% [1] Stock Performance - Notable gainers in the refining and trading sector included: - Compton (603798) with a closing price of 15.16, up 4.84% [1] - Unified Shares (600506) at 26.35, up 3.09% [1] - Runbei Aerospace (001316) at 33.89, up 3.01% [1] - Major decliners included: - Heshun Petroleum (603353) at 29.01, down 5.17% [2] - Rongsheng Petrochemical (002493) at 9.52, down 2.96% [2] - China Petroleum (601857) at 9.78, down 2.49% [2] Capital Flow - The refining and trading sector saw a net outflow of 449 million yuan from main funds, while retail funds had a net inflow of 262 million yuan [2] - The following stocks had significant capital flows: - Rongsheng Petrochemical had a main fund net inflow of 42.31 million yuan, but retail funds saw a net outflow of 22.34 million yuan [3] - Compton had a main fund net inflow of 7.05 million yuan, with retail funds experiencing a net outflow of 9.01 million yuan [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the chemical industry [1] Core Views - The chemical industry is expected to benefit from the ongoing "anti-involution" measures, which may lead to a significant slowdown in global chemical capacity expansion. This shift is anticipated to enhance cash flow and dividend yields for companies in the sector, transforming them from cash-consuming entities to cash-generating ones [7][27] - The report highlights the potential for domestic substitutes for Japanese semiconductor materials due to rising tensions in Sino-Japanese relations, which could accelerate the domestic market's growth in this area [6] Summary by Sections Recent Trends - The chemical industry has shown a relative performance increase of 16.1% over the past 12 months, outperforming the CSI 300 index, which increased by 11.6% [4] Key Price Movements - DMC (Dimethyl Carbonate) prices rose to 4400 CNY/ton, up 14.29% week-on-week, driven by strong demand from the electrolyte sector [14] - Lithium battery electrolyte prices increased to 27000 CNY/ton, up 8.00% week-on-week, although profit margins for manufacturers are under pressure due to rising raw material costs [14] - Diammonium phosphate prices in East China reached 3850 CNY/ton, up 5.48% week-on-week, amid rising production costs [14] Investment Opportunities - The report identifies four key opportunities in the chemical sector: 1. Low-cost expansion, focusing on companies like Wanhua Chemical and Hualu Hengsheng [9] 2. Improved industry conditions, particularly in chromium salts and phosphate rock [10] 3. New materials with high growth potential, such as electronic chemicals and aerospace materials [11] 4. High dividend yields from state-owned enterprises in the chemical sector, including China Petroleum and China National Chemical [11] Company Tracking and Earnings Forecast - The report provides a detailed earnings forecast for key companies, indicating a positive outlook for several firms in the chemical sector, with many rated as "Buy" [28]