行 业 及 产 业 石油石化 2025 年 07 月 13 日 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 相关研究 证券分析师 刘子栋 A0230523110002 liuzd@swsresearch.com 宋涛 A0230516070001 songtao@swsresearch.com 研究支持 陈悦 A0230524100003 chenyue@swsresearch.com 联系人 由于库存走高，EIA 下调气价预测 看好 —— 石油化工行业周报(2025/7/7—2025/7/13) 本期投资提示： 证 券 研 究 报 告 陈悦 (8621)23297818× chenyue@swsresearch.com 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 - ⚫ 由于库存走高，EIA 下调气价预测。美国能源署在 7 月短期能源展望中，将第三季度亨 利港天然气现货价格的预测下调 64 美分至 3.37 美元/百万英热，并将第四季度预测下 调 68 美分至 3.99 美元/百万英热。美国能源署估计，亨利港天然气价格在 2025 年和 2026 年的平均价格分别为 ...

证券研究报告 大炼化周报：长丝价格承压，产销上升 能源化工首席证券分析师：陈淑娴，CFA 执业证书编号：S0600523020004 联系方式：chensx@dwzq.com.cn 能源化工研究分析师：周少玟 执业证书编号：S0600525070005 联系方式：zhoushm@dwzq.com.cn 2025年7月13日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 投资要点 2 ◼ 【国内外重点炼化项目价差跟踪】国内重点大炼化项目本周价差为2529元/吨，环比-106元/吨（环比-4%）；国外 重点大炼化项目本周价差为1070元/吨，环比-58元/吨（环比-5%）。 ◼ 【聚酯板块】本周POY/FDY/DTY行业均价分别为6779/6986/8075元/吨，环比分别-211/-264/-193元/吨， POY/FDY/DTY行业周均利润为26/-102/24元/吨，环比分别-37/-73/-26元/吨，POY/FDY/DTY行业库存为 24.2/24.7/29.4天，环比分别+2.5/+2.3/+0.8天，长丝开工率为91.9%，环比+0.7pct。下游方面，本周织机开工 率为56.2%，环比-1.9pct，织造企业 ...

一、高性能材料行业定义及分类 据工信部、发改委等四部委发布的《新材料产业指南》，高性能材料是指新出现的具有优异性能或特殊 功能的材料，或是传统材料改进后性能明显提高或产生新功能的材料。它能够满足极端环境或高端应用 需求。这类材料通常用于航空航天、能源、电子、医疗和国防等关键领域。高性能材料主要分为先进基 础材料、关键战略材料和前沿新材料。 内容概要：高性能材料是指新出现的具有优异性能或特殊功能的材料。新材料行业作为科技和产业发展 的关键支撑，在我国政策支持、市场需求和技术创新的多重驱动下，产业规模持续快速增长，已成为稳 定经济增长的重要支撑。目前。我国新材料产业已形成了全球门类最全、规模第一的材料产业体系，建 成了涵盖金属、高分子、陶瓷等结构与功能材料的研发和生产体系；形成了庞大的材料生产规模。近年 来，我国新材料产业规模持续扩大，成为稳定经济增长的重要支撑。2024年我国新材料产业总产值8.48 万亿元，连续14年保持两位数快速增长，市场规模8.78万亿元；预计2025年我国新材料产业市场规模 9.66万亿元，产值有望达到9.34万亿元。高性能材料产业是未来发展的重要趋势，随着新兴产业如新能 源、智能制造等 ...

内容概要：功能性离型膜，简称"离型膜"，是一种表面具有分离性功能性薄膜，其主要由基材、底胶和 离型剂组成。离型膜是胶粘材料的"反作用"材料，用于实现材料间稳定剥离。按基材不同，离型膜可分 为PET离型膜、PE离型膜、BOPP离型膜、复合离型膜。从产业链来看，上游为生产离型膜所需的原材 料及设备，原材料包括原膜基材、硅油、固化剂、压敏胶等，生产设备涉及涂布、收卷、烘干等，原材 料的质量和配比直接关系着离型膜产品的性能和质量。中游为离型膜生产制造。下游为离型膜应用领 域，离型膜应用领域广泛，在消费电子、汽车、MLCC、偏光片等领域有着广泛应用，下游行业的兴衰 直接影响离型膜的需求。近年来，受下游市场需求波动的影响，中国离型膜市场规模也呈现波动态势， 2021-2024年期间，我国离型膜市场规模维持在220亿元以上，2024年市场规模为233.7亿元，同比增长 2.4%。未来，随着下游市场进一步发展，将推动离型膜需求持续放量，市场规模有望进一步扩大。从 2024年消费结构来看，消费电子为离型膜最大应用领域，占比49%；其次为MLCC领域，占比36%；偏 光片领域占比6%。汽车、OCA 光学胶也为离型膜重要应用领域， ...

基础化工 2025 年 07 月 09 日 ——化工"反内卷"系列报告（一） 投资评级：看好（维持） | 金益腾（分析师） | 龚道琳（分析师） | 徐正凤（分析师） | | --- | --- | --- | | jinyiteng@kysec.cn | gongdaolin@kysec.cn | xuzhengfeng@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790520020002 | 证书编号：S0790522010001 | 证书编号：S0790524070005 | 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -19% -10% 0% 10% 19% 29% 2024-07 2024-11 2025-03 基础化工 沪深300 相关研究报告 《反内卷浪潮席卷而来，新一轮供给 侧改革呼之欲出 — 行 业 周 报 》 -2025.7.6 《草甘膦供需偏紧、价格延续上涨， 金属硅价格回暖 — 行 业 周 报 》 -2025.6.29 《磷矿石景气高位维稳，磷化工产品 格局持续优化，看好矿化一体企业长 景气与高分红共振—行业深度报告》 -2025.6.29 BOPET 膜：性能优良、国内产需高增，行业自律有 望助力格局优 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the Basic Chemicals and Oil & Gas sectors [5]. Core Insights - The overall price spread in the industry is weak, with the CCPI-oil price spread at approximately 558, below the 30% percentile since 2012, indicating a potential turning point in the industry as supply and demand begin to recover [1][14]. - Capital expenditure growth in the chemical raw materials and products industry has significantly declined, with a year-on-year increase of only 0.4% from January to May 2025, suggesting a self-adjustment phase in the supply side [2][31]. - The domestic PMI for June 2025 is reported at 49.7, indicating a slight recovery in demand, although uncertainties remain regarding tariff policies post-July 9 [2][16]. Summary by Sections Supply Side - The industry capital expenditure growth has dropped to a low level, indicating a potential turning point for supply-side adjustments, with expectations for a recovery starting in the second half of 2025 [2][31]. - The report highlights that the competitive intensity has increased, leading to a significant decline in profitability across most sub-sectors since the second half of 2022 [2][31]. Demand Side - The report notes a recovery in domestic PMI, but uncertainties regarding tariff policies may disrupt future export orders [2][16]. - The demand for chemical products is expected to improve in the medium to long term, supported by domestic economic recovery and growth in demand from regions like Asia, Africa, and Latin America [2][16]. Investment Strategy - The report suggests that the second half of 2025 may see an upward turning point, with a focus on resilient demand and improved supply dynamics [34]. - Specific recommendations include: - Oil & Gas: Favorable long-term prospects for high-dividend companies like China Petroleum [34]. - Bulk Chemicals: Attention on refrigerants and isocyanates, with recommendations for companies like Juhua Co., Luxi Chemical, and Wanhua Chemical [34]. - Downstream Products: Recommendations for companies like Meihua Biological Technology and Xinghuo Technology, anticipating recovery in downstream demand [34]. - Export-driven chemical products: Companies like Senqilin and Sailun Tire are highlighted for their competitive advantages in exports [34]. - High-dividend assets: Companies like Hengli Petrochemical are recommended for their potential to increase dividend payouts [34].

Core Insights - The report predicts that Brent crude oil prices will fluctuate around $65-70 per barrel in the second half of 2025, driven by tight supply and slow demand growth, with potential short-term spikes due to geopolitical factors [4][9] - The petrochemical industry is expected to gradually recover from its bottoming out phase, returning to a normal capacity cycle constrained by credit boundaries, leading to a slow recovery in profitability in 2025 and beyond [4][10] - Investment opportunities are highlighted in high-quality growth stocks, coal chemical equipment investments, and high-dividend sectors, emphasizing a bottom-up investment approach [4][10] Oil Price Trends - Oil prices experienced a two-phase trend in 2025: a decline from $74.64 to $60.23 per barrel (down 19.31%) until May 3, followed by a recovery to $77.01 per barrel (up 27.86%) after May 3 due to seasonal demand and geopolitical tensions [7][25] - The report indicates that global oil supply remains tight, with non-OECD countries contributing to demand growth, which will limit the extent of price declines [9][27] Industry Performance - Global refining capacity is projected to grow by 440,000 barrels per day from 2022 to 2028, with China contributing significantly to this increase [27][33] - The report notes that domestic refined oil demand is nearing its peak, with a decline in consumption due to economic weakness and competition from electric vehicles [39][45] - The petrochemical sector is experiencing a weak recovery, with some chemical products showing improved profitability despite high raw material costs [8][45] Investment Themes - The report emphasizes four main investment themes: 1. Quality growth and leading companies in the industry experiencing volume and price increases [10] 2. Opportunities in high-end materials and technology import substitution [10] 3. Investments related to the upcoming coal chemical investment cycle [10] 4. High dividend yielding state-owned enterprises benefiting from economic recovery [10][11] Recommendations - Key investment targets include leading companies in ethylene production, coal chemical leaders, and high dividend stocks such as China National Offshore Oil Corporation and China Petroleum [11][10] - The report suggests focusing on companies that are positioned to benefit from the recovery in domestic demand and the transition to high-end materials [11][10]

证券研究报告 大炼化周报：长丝价格继续下跌，库存增加 能源化工首席证券分析师：陈淑娴，CFA 执业证书编号：S0600523020004 联系方式：chensx@dwzq.com.cn 能源化工研究助理：周少玟 执业证书编号：S0600123070007 联系方式：zhoushm@dwzq.com.cn 2025年7月6日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 投资要点 2 ◼ 【国内外重点炼化项目价差跟踪】国内重点大炼化项目本周价差为2673元/吨，环比+0元/吨（环比+0%）；国外 重点大炼化项目本周价差为1124元/吨，环比-117元/吨（环比-9%）。 ◼ 【聚酯板块】本周POY/FDY/DTY行业均价分别为6989/7250/8268元/吨，环比分别-186/-229/-161元/吨， POY/FDY/DTY行业周均利润为64/-29/50元/吨，环比分别+1/-27/+18元/吨，POY/FDY/DTY行业库存为 21.7/22.4/28.6天，环比分别+4.5/+3.5/+3.3天，长丝开工率为90.9%，环比+0.4pct。下游方面，本周织机开工 率为58.1%，环比-0.9pct，织造企业原料库 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the oil and petrochemical industry, indicating a "Buy" rating for specific companies within the sector [4][5]. Core Insights - OPEC has announced an unexpected production increase of 548,000 barrels per day for August, but the actual impact of this increase remains to be observed [4][5]. - The upstream sector is experiencing a downward trend in oil prices, with Brent crude oil futures closing at $68.3 per barrel, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.78% [4][18]. - The refining sector is seeing mixed results, with overseas refined oil crack spreads declining, while olefin price spreads show varied trends [4][47]. - The polyester sector is facing profitability challenges, but there are expectations for recovery as supply and demand improve [4][13]. Summary by Sections Upstream Sector - OPEC's actual production increase has been lower than expected, with April's total production at approximately 31.1 million barrels per day, a decrease of 210,000 barrels from the previous month [4][8]. - The U.S. oil rig count decreased to 539, down 8 from the previous week and down 46 year-on-year [31][32]. - The report anticipates a widening supply-demand trend in crude oil, with potential downward pressure on prices, but expects prices to stabilize at mid-high levels due to OPEC's production cuts and shale oil cost support [4][18]. Refining Sector - The Singapore refining margin for major products was $14.01 per barrel, down $2.46 from the previous week [51]. - The U.S. gasoline RBOB-WTI spread was $22.37 per barrel, up $0.53 from the previous week, with a historical average of $24.86 per barrel [56]. - The report suggests that refining profitability may improve as economic recovery progresses, despite current low levels [4][47]. Polyester Sector - The PTA price has seen a decline, with the average price in East China at 4,971.4 yuan per ton, down 3.26% week-on-week [4][13]. - The report highlights a potential recovery in the polyester industry, with expectations for improved profitability as supply-demand dynamics shift positively [4][13]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in the polyester sector such as Tongkun Co. and Wankai New Materials, as well as top refining companies like Hengli Petrochemical and Sinopec [4][13]. - It also suggests that the upstream exploration and development sector remains robust, with high capital expenditure expected to continue, particularly for offshore oil service companies [4][13].

期货研究报告|纯苯专题 2025-07-03 纯苯下游格局 研究院化工组 研究员 梁宗泰 020-83901031 liangzongtai@htfc.com 从业资格号：F3056198 投资咨询号：Z0015616 陈莉 020-83901135 cl@htfc.com 从业资格号：F0233775 投资咨询号：Z0000421 联系人 杨露露 0755-82790795 yanglulu@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03128371 吴硕琮 020-83901158 wushuocong@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03119179 刘启展 020-83901049 摘要 华泰期货纯苯上市专题系列之四：纯苯下游格局。分为横向对比分析及纵向自身分 析。 横向对比的分析，第一是纯苯下游苯乙烯、己内酰胺、酚酮、苯胺、己二酸五大品种 的下游需求占比及基础介绍；第二是按照外采纯苯比例加权后的纯苯下游需求占比， 找出对纯苯需求边际影响更大的品种；第三是列出五个品种的年度产能增速，对比 5 个品种的投产周期；第四是分析纯苯需求分地区占比，且各地区下游占比分析，特别 是定价主要集中地的华东的下游需求占比分析，还 ...