证券研究报告 行业研究——周报 [Table_ReportType] [Table_StockAndRank] 石油加工行业 刘红光 石化行业联席首席分析师 执业编号：S1500525060002 邮箱：liuhongguang@cindasc.com 刘奕麟 石化行业分析师 执业编号：S1500524040001 邮箱：liuyilin@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDASECURITIESCO.，LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅大厦B 座 邮编：100031 [Table_Title] 大炼化周报：冬季下游备货需求步入尾声， 涤纶长丝小幅累库 [Table_ReportDate0] 2025 年 12 月 20 日 本期内容提要： [Table_Author] ➢ 国内外重点炼化项目价差跟踪： [Table_Summary] [Table_Summary] 截至 12 月 19 日当周，国内重点大 炼化项目价差为 2540.74 元/吨，环比变化+7.17 元/吨（+0.28%）； 国外重点大炼化项目价差为 1303.62 元/吨，环比变化-27.50 元/吨（- 2. ...

本周行情综述 风险提示 地缘政治扰动超预期；海外经济出现衰退；行业及国际政策环境变化。 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 1 原油：本周油价维持震荡。俄乌谈判进展顺利施压油价，柏林谈判美乌在多个关键议题上形成初步共识，美方表 示乌俄之间约 90%的问题已解决，准备前往俄罗斯继续推动谈判。同时欧盟理事会对俄罗斯"影子舰队"实施制 裁。而委内瑞拉局势反复，其原油的折扣幅度已扩大至较布油低 21 美元，而上周折价 14 至 15 美元。周中市场 预期特朗普或下令对委内瑞拉宣战，但 18 号特朗普在国情咨文演讲中未提到委内瑞拉，随后表示仍不排除与委 内瑞拉开战的可能性。总体看，俄乌和谈推进而美委局势紧张，地缘博弈持续。截止 12 月 18 日，WTI 现货收于 56.15 美元，环比-1.45 美元；BRENT 现货收于 61.43 美元，环比-0.95 美元。EIA12 月 12 日当周商业原油库存 环比-127.4 万桶，前值-181.2 万桶。其中库欣原油环比-74.2 万桶，前值+30.8 万桶。汽油库存环比+480.8 万 桶，前值+639.7 万桶。炼厂开工率环比+0.3%至 94.8%。美国原油库存下降，净进口 ...

消息面上，碳酸锂继续大涨，12月17日，广期所碳酸锂期货大幅上涨，主力合约盘中逼近11万元/吨。行情数据显示，12月17日，国内碳酸锂 2605主力合约盘中一度上涨8.84%，最高报价达10.986万元/吨，创2024年5月10日以来新高，收盘涨幅7.61%，报10.862万元/吨。今年下半年， 碳酸锂期货价格明显上涨，最新价较年内低点已累计上涨84.1%。 东莞证券表示，看好锂电池产业链周期复苏。动力电池方面，海外新兴市场增长迅猛，有望继续拉动出口保持增长韧性。预计2026年全球新能 源汽车销量增速约达17%，全球动力电池需求同比增长约20%。储能电池方面，2026年全球储能市场将延续高速增长，储能电池需求增速预计 达50%左右，储能电芯供需紧张格局可能将持续至2026年年中。 化工板块今日（12月18日）继续猛攻！反映化工板块整体走势的化工ETF（516020）开盘后震荡上行，截至发稿，场内价格涨1.12%。 成份股方面，氨纶、石化、煤化工等板块部分个股涨幅居前。截至发稿，华峰化学飙涨超6%，鲁西化工大涨超4%，荣盛石化、扬农化工、博 源化工等多股跟涨超3%。 | | | 多日 1分 5分 15分 30分 ...

Core Insights - The 2025 World Brand 500 list was announced, with 50 Chinese brands included, maintaining the country's position as the third globally [1] - Five brands from Suzhou made the list: Hengli (347th), Shenghong (369th), Hengtong (386th), Bosideng (449th), and Tongding (496th), with Tongding being a first-time entrant [1] - The evaluation criteria for the World Brand 500 include market share, brand loyalty, and global leadership, assessing over 8,000 brands [1] Group 1: Suzhou Brands - Hengli has been on the list for eight consecutive years, improving its position by 16 spots from the previous year [1] - Shenghong has also been recognized for five consecutive years, moving up 11 places this year [2] - Hengtong has established 12 overseas industrial bases and over 40 technical service companies, creating a network covering more than 150 countries [2] Group 2: Brand Strategies - Shenghong is integrating artificial intelligence into its core strategy for industrial upgrade and brand building, focusing on smart industry and green branding [2] - Tongding, a leader in information communication and energy infrastructure, is enhancing its global strategy, exporting products to various countries and increasing brand visibility along the Belt and Road Initiative [2] - Hengtong has undertaken over 150 information and energy interconnection projects globally, enhancing the reputation of Chinese manufacturing [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the petrochemical industry, indicating a favorable investment environment [2]. Core Insights - Three major institutions have raised their oil demand forecasts, with the EIA predicting a global crude oil surplus of 2.24 million barrels per day for the current year [4][17]. - The EIA has kept its 2025-2026 crude oil price forecasts unchanged at $69 and $55 per barrel, respectively, while raising its natural gas price forecasts for the same years [5][11]. - The report highlights a tightening supply-demand balance in the downstream polyester sector, with expectations of improved market conditions [19]. Summary by Sections Demand Forecasts - IEA expects global oil demand to increase by 830,000 barrels per day in 2025 and 860,000 barrels per day in 2026, driven by positive macroeconomic and trade outlooks [11][12]. - OPEC forecasts a demand growth of 1.3 million barrels per day in 2025 and 1.4 million barrels per day in 2026 [12][58]. - EIA anticipates a rise in global oil and other liquid fuel consumption by 1.14 million barrels per day in 2025 and 1.23 million barrels per day in 2026 [12][17]. Supply Forecasts - EIA has raised its global oil supply forecast for the current year by 200,000 barrels per day, while IEA has lowered its forecast by 100,000 barrels per day [14][17]. - EIA projects a global oil production increase of 3.01 million barrels per day in 2025 and 1.25 million barrels per day in 2026 [15][17]. - OPEC anticipates a growth in non-OPEC oil supply of 1 million barrels per day in 2025, primarily from the U.S., Brazil, Canada, and Argentina [58]. Upstream Sector - Brent crude oil prices have decreased, with the latest closing price at $61.12 per barrel, reflecting a 4.13% week-on-week decline [27]. - The report notes a slight increase in U.S. oil rig counts, with 548 rigs reported as of December 12, 2025 [40]. Downstream Sector - The report indicates an improvement in refining margins, with the Singapore refining margin rising to $19.82 per barrel [4]. - Polyester sector profitability is mixed, with PTA prices declining while polyester filament prices are on the rise [19]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends high-quality companies in the polyester sector, such as Tongkun Co. and Wankai New Materials, as well as major refining companies like Hengli Petrochemical and Rongsheng Petrochemical [19][22]. - It also suggests focusing on high-dividend yield companies like China Petroleum and China National Offshore Oil Corporation [22].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market - A" for the chemical industry [5] Core Views - The political bureau meeting emphasized the implementation of more proactive macro policies and the importance of expanding domestic demand and optimizing supply, which is expected to provide a clearer reversal signal for the chemical industry at the bottom of the cycle [2][3] - The chemical industry is currently at a historical low valuation, with a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 2.2, indicating significant upside potential [2][18] - The report highlights the importance of supply-side optimization and the potential for price recovery in industries with high concentration and low profitability [3][20] Summary by Sections 1. Core Insights of the Week - The report discusses the impact of the geopolitical situation on oil prices, with Brent oil closing at $61.28 per barrel, down $2.47 (-3.9%) from the previous week [17] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) has shown unexpected recovery, which has increased attention on the chemical sector [18] 2. Overall Performance of the Chemical Sector - The chemical sector index decreased by 2.2% in the week, ranking 26th among 31 industry sectors [24] - Year-to-date, the chemical sector index has increased by 25.0%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 9.0% [24][27] 3. Individual Stock Performance in the Chemical Sector - Among 424 stocks in the chemical sector, 97 stocks rose while 325 fell during the week [32] - The top gainers included companies like Bluestar Technology (+18.1%) and Qiaoyuan Co. (+15.2%) [34] 4. Key Investment Themes - **Theme One**: Focus on upstream resource assets with strong profit certainty, such as phosphorus and sulfur [19] - **Theme Two**: Emphasis on supply-side optimization and price elasticity in sectors like organic silicon and PTA [20] - **Theme Three**: Attention to low-valued leading companies in the sector, such as Wanhua Chemical and Hengli Petrochemical [22] - **Theme Four**: Investment in new productive forces aligned with green energy and semiconductor materials [23]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the oil refining industry Core Insights - The report highlights a seasonal decline in demand and weak cost support, leading to a downward trend in chemical product price spreads [2] - Domestic key refining project price spread is 2527.61 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 22.27 CNY/ton (+0.89%), while the international key refining project price spread is 1330.98 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week decrease of 6.23 CNY/ton (-0.47%) [3] - Brent crude oil weekly average price is 62.00 USD/barrel, with a week-on-week decrease of 1.73% [2] Summary by Sections Refining Sector - Positive signals in China-US trade relations boosted market risk appetite, while concerns over Russian supply supported international oil prices [2] - Brent and WTI crude oil prices on December 12, 2025, were 61.12 USD/barrel and 57.44 USD/barrel, respectively, down by 2.63 USD/barrel and 2.64 USD/barrel from December 5, 2025 [2] - Domestic refined oil prices showed slight fluctuations, with diesel and aviation kerosene prices in Southeast Asia experiencing minor increases, while other regions saw price declines [2] Chemical Sector - The industry is entering a demand off-season, with weak cost support leading to a decline in chemical product prices and spreads [2] - Polyolefins prices and spreads have decreased due to a continuous decline in terminal operating levels [2] - EVA prices have dropped due to supply pressure from new installations and weak demand, with the average price at 10028.57 CNY/ton [2] - Benzene prices remained stable, with a slight increase in spreads, while styrene prices increased due to tight supply [2] Major Refining Companies - Stock price changes for six major private refining companies as of December 12, 2025, include: Rongsheng Petrochemical (-4.69%), Hengli Petrochemical (-5.22%), Dongfang Shenghong (-0.96%), Hengyi Petrochemical (-1.09%), Tongkun Co. (-6.62%), and Xin Fengming (-9.99%) [2]

Investment Direction 1: Dividend Strategy - Recommended companies include China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec), and China National Petroleum Corporation (PetroChina) with an expected Brent oil price range of $60-70 per barrel in 2026 [2][3] - CNOOC is committed to maintaining a dividend payout ratio of no less than 45% from 2025 to 2027, while PetroChina benefits from domestic natural gas market reforms [2][3] Investment Direction 2: Capital Allocation to Undervalued Chemical Leaders - Recommended companies include Wanhua Chemical, Baofeng Energy, Satellite Chemical, and Hualu Hengsheng, which are expected to benefit from industry barriers related to cost, technology, and market [2][3] - The report suggests prioritizing capital allocation to chemical ETFs and leading companies as their performance is expected to stabilize [2][3] Investment Direction 3: Price Increases Driven by Downstream Demand - Traditional demand sectors such as food additives, pesticides, and fertilizers are highlighted, with companies like New Hope Liuhe and Jiangshan Chemical expected to benefit from stable growth in demand [2][3] - Emerging demand in phosphorous and fluorine chemicals is driven by the needs of new energy battery and AI cooling applications, with companies like Chuanheng Chemical and Juhua Co. being key players [2][3] Investment Direction 4: Domestic Anti-Competition Driving Price Increases - The report emphasizes the focus on large refining and chemical companies such as Hengli Petrochemical and Rongsheng Petrochemical, which are expected to benefit from anti-competitive measures in the domestic market [2][3] - The organic silicon sector is entering the end of its expansion cycle, with major companies like Sinan Silicon Material adjusting industry operating rates [2][3] - The soda ash industry is facing capacity controls and the need to phase out outdated production, with companies like Boyuan Chemical under observation [2][3] Oil Price Analysis - The report anticipates a Brent oil price range of $60-70 per barrel in 2026, with a slight oversupply expected [11][12] - OPEC+ has postponed production increases for Q1 2026, indicating a cautious approach to market conditions [11][12] - The report highlights geopolitical factors, including the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict and U.S.-Venezuela relations, which may impact oil supply dynamics [12][13] Three Major Oil Companies Insights - CNOOC is focused on increasing reserves and production while reducing costs, while PetroChina is benefiting from natural gas market reforms [34][36] - Sinopec is concentrating on domestic refining and chemical anti-competition developments [34][36] - The overall profitability of the three major oil companies is expected to be supported by the anticipated oil price stabilization [34][36]

恒力石化股份有限公司 证券代码：600346 证券简称：恒力石化 公告编号：2025-078 恒力石化股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）近日接到控股股东恒力集团有 限公司（以下简称"恒力集团"）通知，获悉其将所持有的公司部分股份办理了 解除质押手续。 二、本次股份解除质押后，恒力集团及其一致行动人累计质押股份情况如下： | 持股数量（股） | 5,310,675,080 | | --- | --- | | 持股比例 | 75.45% | 股东名称 恒力集团 本次解质股份（股） 60,000,000 本次解质股份占该股东所持股份比例 2.86% 本次解质股份占公司总股本比例 0.85% 质押登记解除日期 2025 年 12 月 10 日 股东持股数量（股） 2,100,612,342 股东持股比例 29.84% 剩余被质押股份数量（股） 1,108,000,000 剩余被质押股份数量占其所持股份比例 52.75% 剩余被质押股份数量占公司总股本比例 15.74% 一、本次股份解除质押的基本情况如下： 恒力石化股份有限公司 恒力石化股份有限公司 关于控股股东解除部分股份质押的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内 ...

一、责令恒力期货有限公司芜湖营业部在收到决定书之日起30日内予以改正，并向安徽证监局提 交整改情况报告。 二、自收到决定书之日起六个月内，暂停恒力期货有限公司芜湖营业部期货经纪业务新开户。暂停 期间届满后，安徽证监局将视营业部整改情况组织验收，验收通过前，不得新增开户。 王健作为营业部负责人，对上述违规行为负有管理责任，违反了《期货公司董事、监事和高级管理 人员任职管理办法》（证监会令第227号）第四条的规定，根据《期货公司董事、监事和高级管理人员 任职管理办法》第四十四条第一项和《期货公司监督管理办法》第一百零九条的规定，安徽证监局决定 对王健采取出具警示函的监督管理措施，并将相关情况记入诚信档案。 中国经济网北京12月11日讯 安徽证监局10日发布关于对恒力期货有限公司芜湖营业部采取暂停期 货经纪业务新开户等措施的决定（〔2025〕73号）。经查，安徽证监局发现恒力期货有限公司芜湖营 业部（统一社会信用代码：91340203MADKE8EP00）存在以下违规行为： 一、在开展互联网营销活动时，将第三方合作的费用支付标准与交易手续费挂钩，风险管控严重不 足。 二、未有效执行公司合规制度相关规定。 上述情形反 ...