证券日报网讯 1月23日，恒力石化（600346）在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，原油价格上涨，传导 至下游产品中，价格会随之上涨，量稳价升的情况下会带动销售增长，但是原油价格影响的产品种类较 多，无法直接决定产品的价差和盈利情况。 ...

来源：中国能源网 投资建议与估值复盘：对于周期性行业，由于业绩的波动性较大，市盈率PE往往容易失真。我们通过 PB（MRQ）、PE（TTM）和ROE中位数得到重新修正后的PE进行复盘。我们发现目前四大民营炼化企 业的PE修正值均处于近十年相对低位。按照ROE线性回归趋势，若后续ROE突破中枢甚至迎来新一次 增长，则预计有较可观的估值提升空间（平均区间约1-3倍）。总体来看，炼化行业正处于"结构性修 复"阶段，在政策出清落后产能和自身产业链优势的双重作用下，龙头企业的估值修复逻辑正在确立。 建议关注我国民营炼化代表龙头：荣盛石化、恒力石化、恒逸石化和东方盛虹，以及已有上游布局的涤 纶长丝龙头桐昆股份。 风险提示：油价剧烈波动；下游景气度复苏不及预期；新材料等项目兑现不及预期；"反内卷"等政策变 化。（东海证券 吴骏燕,谢建斌,张季恺） "反内卷"提供重要支撑。1）政策有力牵引下产能控制逐步落实：国家明确炼油产能不超过10亿吨红 线，扩产周期基本结束。炼化"反内卷"政策通过"关停小产能+限制新增+引导行业自律"三管齐下，改善 行业竞争生态。2）成本中枢回落下，"反内卷"对产品价格托底。2025四季度至今，我们跟踪 ...

东方证券发布研报称，看好化工行业在多重因素引导下，企业经营策略出现集体转向，带来的景气度修 复。从其中优选机会，该行相对看好两个维度：一是行业份额占比大、话语权高、有较大转变动力的龙 头企业；二是具有较大竞争优势、经营策略转变后盈利情况提升较显著的龙头企业。综上该行主要看好 五个方向：MDI、石化、磷化工、PVC和聚酯瓶片。 东方证券主要观点如下： 份额导向的预期正被转变 长期以来，份额导向一直是我国化工行业的主旋律，多数企业的竞争力构建也围绕成本优势展开。虽然 供给侧改革、环保核查、双碳目标等政策提高了行业的准入门槛，使得行业集中度实现了显著提升，但 并没有改变企业家们扩张发展的雄心。不过随着近几年快速发展，化工行业已开始逐渐触及到份额的边 界。一方面是内部政策调整，通过央国企"一利五率"、"反内卷"等政策限制行业低质量扩张。另一方是 外部越来越频发的反倾销、反补贴调查，提高了对外扩张份额的难度。该行认为这些变化传达给行业与 企业家的信号就是以往份额导向的预期必须做出改变。 该行认为行业优选标准主要有两条：扩张约束强度、龙头优势深度。扩张约束越强，企业对于未来份额 驱动的预期就越低，也越有可能调整经营策略， ...

Core Insights - The chemical industry is undergoing a strategic shift from a focus on market share to profitability, driven by internal policy adjustments and external pressures such as anti-dumping investigations [4][7][11] - The report identifies five key sectors with investment potential: MDI, petrochemicals, phosphate chemicals, PVC, and polyester bottle flakes, emphasizing the importance of leading companies with significant market share and competitive advantages [4][12][55] Group 1: Industry Trends - The chemical industry has historically prioritized market share, but recent policies and market conditions are prompting a shift towards profitability [7][13] - The supply-side reforms and dual carbon goals have raised entry barriers, leading to increased industry concentration without curbing expansion ambitions [7][13] - The trend of sacrificing market share for improved returns is becoming more prevalent, as companies recognize the need to adapt to changing market dynamics [31][11] Group 2: Investment Recommendations - MDI: The leading company, Wanhua Chemical, is expected to benefit significantly from its strategic shift towards profitability, with potential for substantial earnings growth in 2026 [56] - Petrochemicals: Major players like Sinopec and Rongsheng Petrochemical are undergoing operational adjustments that could reshape industry trends [57] - Phosphate Chemicals: The sector is poised for revaluation due to a tight supply-demand balance and increasing recognition of phosphate's value in energy security [59][60] - PVC: The industry faces strong supply constraints, with emerging markets driving demand growth despite domestic challenges [60] - Polyester Bottle Flakes: The sector is experiencing a recovery in profitability due to high industry concentration and strategic production limitations by leading firms [61]

Market Overview - Major Asia-Pacific indices showed a collective decline, with the A-share market also experiencing consolidation, as the Shanghai Composite Index fluctuated while the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext indices performed weakly. The total trading volume in Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing reached 2.8 trillion yuan, an increase of 72 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1] Real Estate Sector - The real estate sector rebounded strongly, with a notable increase in the price of a real estate ETF (159707) by 3.22%, marking multiple consecutive gains. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the sales price of newly built commercial residential properties in first-tier cities decreased by 0.3% month-on-month in December 2025, with Shanghai seeing a slight increase of 0.2% [1] Chemical Sector - The chemical sector experienced a significant rally, with the chemical ETF (516020) reaching a new high since August 2022, closing up 1.27%. Major companies in the sector, such as BASF and Dow, have been raising prices across Europe, Asia, and the Middle East. The ETF attracted 1.148 billion yuan in the last ten days [1][4] - The chemical ETF has seen substantial net inflows, with over 5.8 billion yuan in net subscriptions in the last five trading days and 11 billion yuan in the last ten days. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has set guidelines for zero-carbon factory construction, which may limit new capacity in the chemical sector [6][7] Banking Sector - The banking sector showed resilience amid market volatility, with a significant number of bank stocks rising. The top bank ETF (512800) closed up 0.77%, ending a four-day losing streak. Historical data indicates that the banking sector has a high probability of generating absolute and excess returns before the Spring Festival, with an average return of 4.4% from 2017 to 2025 [8][11][14] - The banking sector is expected to benefit from continued growth in credit, supported by stable growth policies and a favorable low-interest-rate environment. The latest dividend yield for the banking index stands at 4.78%, significantly higher than the 10-year government bond yield of 1.84% [14][15] AI and Technology Sector - The AI and technology sectors faced a downturn, with the entrepreneurial AI ETF (159363) experiencing a four-day decline. Despite this, the sector remains attractive for future investments, particularly in light of ongoing developments in AI applications and infrastructure [16][18] - The communication and semiconductor industries are expected to see increased attention due to their potential for earnings upgrades, with significant growth anticipated in the coming years [18][20]

Group 1 - The chemical sector continues to show strong performance, with the chemical ETF (516020) reaching a closing price that marks a new high since August 2022, closing up 1.27% on January 20, 2026 [1][9] - Notable individual stocks within the sector include Sanhe Tree, which hit the daily limit, and Luxi Chemical, which surged by 8.89%, while Satellite Chemical, Hengli Petrochemical, and Tongcheng New Materials all rose over 6% [1][10] - Since the beginning of 2025, the chemical ETF has seen a cumulative increase of 54.34%, significantly outperforming major indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index (22.73%) and the CSI 300 Index (19.92%) [1][13] Group 2 - The chemical ETF has attracted significant capital inflow, with over 5.8 billion yuan in net subscriptions over the last five trading days and more than 11 billion yuan over the last ten trading days [4][12] - A recent policy from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology aims to promote zero-carbon factory construction by 2030, which may lead to stricter regulations on new chemical projects and limit new capacity in the petrochemical sector [4][12] - Analysts suggest that the chemical industry is currently in a weak performance phase, but certain sub-sectors, such as lubricants, have exceeded expectations, indicating potential investment opportunities in glyphosate, fertilizers, and high-dividend assets [5][14] Group 3 - The chemical ETF (516020) tracks the CSI Sub-Industry Chemical Theme Index, with nearly 50% of its holdings concentrated in large-cap leading stocks like Wanhua Chemical and Salt Lake Industry, while the other half includes leading stocks in various sub-sectors [5][14] - The ETF provides a more efficient way to invest in the chemical sector, especially for those looking to capitalize on the sector's rebound [5][14]

Group 1 - The refining and trading sector increased by 1.65% on January 20, with Bohai Chemical leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4113.65, down 0.01%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14155.63, down 0.97% [1] - Key stocks in the refining and trading sector showed significant price increases, with Bohai Chemical rising by 7.56% to a closing price of 4.84, and Hengli Petrochemical increasing by 6.62% to 26.74 [1] Group 2 - The refining and trading sector saw a net inflow of 1.09 billion yuan from main funds, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 2.73 billion yuan [2] - Major stocks like Hengli Petrochemical had a net inflow of 1.92 billion yuan from main funds, indicating strong institutional interest [3] - Retail investors showed a negative sentiment towards several stocks, with significant outflows from companies like ST Shenhua and Hengyi Petrochemical [3]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.01% on January 20, with 20 industries rising, led by the oil and petrochemical sector, which increased by 1.74% [1] - The communication and defense industries experienced the largest declines, with drops of 3.23% and 2.87% respectively [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The main capital outflow from the two markets totaled 95.723 billion yuan, with 11 industries seeing net inflows [1] - The banking sector had the highest net inflow, increasing by 0.80% with a net inflow of 1.472 billion yuan, followed by the real estate sector, which rose by 1.55% with a net inflow of 627 million yuan [1] Oil and Petrochemical Sector - The oil and petrochemical industry rose by 1.74%, with a net outflow of 32.276 million yuan [2] - Out of 47 stocks in this sector, 31 rose while 15 fell, with 18 stocks experiencing net inflows [2] - The top three stocks with significant net inflows were Hengli Petrochemical (1.75 billion yuan), Sinopec (890.169 million yuan), and Continental Oil (587.633 million yuan) [2] Notable Stocks in Oil and Petrochemical Sector - Major stocks with significant net outflows included Rongsheng Petrochemical (-68.2609 million yuan), Baomo Co. (-66.8692 million yuan), and Tongkun Co. (-44.9582 million yuan) [2] - The table of capital flow in the oil and petrochemical sector highlights various stocks, including Hengli Petrochemical with a 6.62% increase and a net inflow of 17.49715 million yuan, and Sinopec with a 1.35% increase and a net inflow of 890.169 million yuan [3]

Group 1 - The chemical sector experienced a significant afternoon rally on January 20, with the Chemical ETF (516020) reaching an intraday high of 1.7% before closing up 0.85% [1] - Key stocks in the sector included Sanhe Tree, which surged over 9%, and Luxi Chemical, which rose over 8%, along with several others like Satellite Chemical and Hengli Petrochemical, which increased by more than 4% [1] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, along with four other departments, issued guidelines on January 19 to promote the construction of zero-carbon factories, aiming to extend this initiative to the petrochemical and chemical industries [1] Group 2 - Tianfeng Securities noted that by 2025, a turning point in policy and capital expenditure is expected, with the "anti-involution" concept providing a positive outlook for industry profitability and healthier long-term development [3] - The restructuring of supply and demand dynamics, along with the upgrading of industry attributes, is prompting a reevaluation of traditional chemical companies' values [3] - Huaxin Securities indicated that the overall performance of the chemical industry remains weak, with mixed results across sub-sectors, influenced by past capacity expansions and weak demand, although some sectors like lubricants have outperformed expectations [3] Group 3 - The Chemical ETF (516020) tracks the CSI Sub-Industry Chemical Theme Index, with nearly 50% of its holdings concentrated in large-cap leading stocks such as Wanhua Chemical and Salt Lake Co., allowing investors to capitalize on strong investment opportunities [4] - The remaining 50% of the ETF's holdings are diversified across leading stocks in sub-sectors like phosphate fertilizers, fluorine chemicals, and nitrogen fertilizers, providing comprehensive exposure to the chemical sector [4]

Core Viewpoint - The chemical ETF Tianhong (159133) is experiencing significant capital inflow and positive market performance, driven by macroeconomic factors and industry dynamics [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of January 20, 2026, the chemical ETF Tianhong (159133) recorded a transaction volume of 6.5777 million yuan, with the underlying index rising by 0.46% [1]. - The ETF has seen a net subscription of 20 million shares within the first half hour of trading, indicating strong investor interest [1]. - The ETF's latest scale and share count have reached new highs since its inception, with a total net inflow of 312 million yuan over the past 14 days [2]. Group 2: Industry Dynamics - The Tianhong ETF tracks the CSI Sub-Industry Chemical Theme Index, focusing on various sub-sectors within the Chinese chemical industry, including chemical raw materials and manufacturing [2]. - The chemical sector is experiencing a rebound, supported by macroeconomic factors such as an unexpected rise in PMI and a stronger yuan, which reduces import costs [2]. - The industry is witnessing a reduction in capital expenditure, with a shift towards "de-involution" strategies that help mitigate risks of oversupply [2][3]. Group 3: Price Trends and Future Outlook - Recent data shows that 44.1% of 170 tracked chemical products have seen price increases, with notable rises in lithium carbonate, ABS, and epoxy propane [3]. - The dual forces of supply-side contraction and demand-side growth, driven by national policies and external economic conditions, are expected to support a cyclical recovery in the chemical industry [3].