当"反内卷"的宏大叙事，遇到行业经营持续向善，炼化行业真正拐点是否就将到来？ Choice数据统计，A股四大民营炼化集团——荣盛石化、恒力石化、东方盛虹和恒逸石化，截至11月11 日，本月股价分别上涨7.26%，11.92%，9.40%和8.06%。 根据第三季度财报，荣盛石化单季度归属母公司股东净利润为2.86亿元，同比增1427%；恒力石化归母 利润达19.72亿，同比增速达81%，为四大民营炼化三季度业绩状元。 恒逸石化与东方盛虹，前者第三季度完成扭亏，同比增利约2.04亿元；东方盛虹虽仍未扭亏，但第三季 度净利润增近15亿元，亏损幅度明显收窄。 | 炼化企业三季度利润对比 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 炼化企业 | 2024Q3 | 2025Q3 | | 东方感虹 | -17.38 | -2.60 | | 恒逸石化 | -1.99 | 0.04 | | 荣盛石化 | 0.19 | 2.86 | | 恒力石化 | 10.87 | 19.72 | | 总和 | -8.31 | 20.03 | | 来源：choice数据，21世纪经济报道整理 | | | 在此之前，炼化行业已经蛰伏 ...

恒逸石化与东方盛虹，前者第三季度完成扭亏，同比增利约2.04亿元；东方盛虹虽仍未扭亏，但第三季 度净利润增近15亿元，亏损幅度明显收窄。 | | 炼化企业三季度利润对比 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 炼化企业 | 2024Q3 | 2025Q3 | | 东方感虹 | -17.38 | -2.60 | | 恒逸石化 | -1.99 | 0.04 | | 荣盛石化 | 0.19 | 2.86 | | 恒力石化 | 10.87 | 19.72 | | 总和 | -8.31 | 20.03 | | 来源：choice数据，21世纪经济报道整理 | | | 在此之前，炼化行业已经蛰伏数年。 全球宏观经济不景气由油价向炼化端传导。而为获得足够利润，中国炼化企业过去数年中又大量兴 建"一体化炼化项目"，精进产品工艺，降低加工成本，并倒逼落后产能退出市场，但同时又在市场中酝 酿出大高效产能，导致产品加工费持续偏低，企业利润空间较为有限。 但是，于三季度率先出台的能耗限额文件，给落后产能快速出清快马一鞭，炼化企业利润也实现了快速 改善。 随着国家"反内卷"政策陆续出台，2025年成为炼化行业的"反转之年" ...

证券研究报告 行业研究|行业专题研究|石油石化 业绩亮点频出，"反内卷"或加持—— 2025 年三季报业绩总结 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 glzqdatemark1 2025年11月11日 证券研究报告 |报告要点 OPEC+超预期增产及美国"对等关税"压制需求导致油价承压，但美国油气产量增速放缓或对 基本面形成支撑，持续看好拥有优质上游资产、高分红低估值的龙头油气央企。中下游方面， 当前市场投资策略偏多元化，我们建议关注"反内卷"、内需、新兴产业等景气齐升方向。"反 内卷"方向关注度仍较高，传统周期化工板块尽管大多仍处于周期底部，但部分子行业在"反 内卷"政策助力下，过剩落后产能有望逐步出清，相关产品供需格局存改善预期；内需方面， 需要重视民爆、农化等内需支撑方向；新兴产业方面，机器人材料、液冷、PCB 高频高速树脂 等需求高速增长方向值得关注。 |分析师及联系人 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 1 / 38 许隽逸 张玮航 陈律楼 黄楷 SAC：S0590524060003 SAC：S0590524090003 SAC：S0590524080002 SAC：S0590522090001 赵嘉卉 SAC： ...

化工 证券研究报告 2025.11.02 高质量发展有望成为"十五五"油气化工行 业主旋律 SFC CE Ref：BRE717 SAC 执证编号：S0080522110002 SFC CE Ref：BBQ744 beina.yan@cicc.com.cn 裘孝锋 分析员 严蓓娜 分析员 贾雄伟 分析员 SAC 执证编号：S0080518090004 SFC CE Ref：BRF843 xiongwei.jia@cicc.com.cn 90 100 110 120 130 2024-11 2025-02 2025-05 2025-08 2025-10 沪深300 中金化工 | 股票 | 股票 | 目标 | P/E (x) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 | 评级 | 价格 | 2025E 2026E | | | 万华化学-A | 跑赢行业 | 90.00 | 15.0 | 11.4 | | 恒力石化-A | 跑赢行业 | 17.80 | 18.7 | 16.6 | | 荣盛石化-A | 跑赢行业 | 11.00 | 72.2 | 21.9 | 中金一级行业：基础 ...

11月10日，A股市场迎来明显分化，沪指收涨0.53%，创业板收跌0.92%。 在A股一众热门科技成长赛道纷纷大回调之际，食品饮料、旅游、化工、能源等传统行业板块迎来集体强劲逆势上涨，其 中，化工50ETF(516120)今日收涨2.08%，强势四连阳，年内涨幅扩大至35.01%，居同标的第一。 作为过去 3 年调整幅度最深行业之一的化工板块，今年随着 A 股大市上涨也跟着回升，并在前三季度逐渐迎来业绩面和估值 面的双重修复。 如今，一系列的利好催化之下，这个行业再次得到资金的关注。 传统行业集体回归 今天，A股的成长赛道与传统行业显著的分化，较明显反映了近期科技领域的热门事件催化剂落地之后，A股市场的交易逻 辑发生转变所致——由热门赛道题材事件驱动转为由行业基本面的业绩及估值驱动。 在大涨的板块，近期被市场热议的"白酒老登股"板块逆势集体大涨近4.7%，其中二线品牌舍得酒业、酒鬼酒、会稽山双双罕 见涨停，贵州茅台收涨2%，五粮液、汾酒、老窖等一线大牌分别收涨3.47%、6.35%、8.23%。 旅游经济板块也异常活跃，近期备受政策利好驱动而持续强势大涨的海南板块拉动了酒店、机场、免税等多个子版块，其 中"免 ...

11月10日，A股市场迎来明显分化，沪指收涨0.53%，创业板收跌0.92%。 在A股一众热门科技成长赛道纷纷大回调之际，食品饮料、旅游、化工、能源等传统行业板块迎来集体强劲逆势上涨，其 中，化工50ETF(516120)今日收涨2.08%，强势四连阳，年内涨幅扩大至35.01%，居同标的第一。 作为过去3年调整幅度最深行业之一的化工板块，今年随着A股大市上涨也跟着回升，并在前三季度逐渐迎来业绩面和估值面 的双重修复。 如今，一系列的利好催化之下，这个行业再次得到资金的关注。 01、传统行业集体回归 在大涨的板块，近期被市场热议的"白酒老登股"板块逆势集体大涨近4.7%，其中二线品牌舍得酒业、酒鬼酒、会稽山双双罕 见涨停，贵州茅台收涨2%，五粮液、汾酒、老窖等一线大牌分别收涨3.47%、6.35%、8.23%。 旅游经济板块也异常活跃，近期备受政策利好驱动而持续强势大涨的海南板块拉动了酒店、机场、免税等多个子版块，其 中"免税茅"中国中免更是强势涨停，股价突破2024年10月高点。 消息面上，大消费板块的整体大涨，与三大利好刺激有关。 首先，11月7日，财政部发布2025年上半年中国财政政策执行情况报告，将继 ...

作者 | 哥吉拉 数据支持 | 勾股大数据（www.gogudata.com） 11 月 10 日， A 股市场迎来明显分化，沪指收涨 0.53% ，创业板收跌 0.92% 。 在 A 股一众热门科技成长赛道纷纷大回调之际，食品饮料、旅游、化工、能源等传统行业板块迎来集体强劲逆势上 涨，其中， 化工 50ETF(516120) 今日收涨 2.08% ，强势四连阳，年内涨幅扩大至 35.01% ，居同标的第一。 作为过去 3 年调整幅度最深行业之一的化工板块，今年随着 A 股大市上涨也跟着回升，并在前三季度逐渐迎来业 绩面和估值面的双重修复。 如今，一系列的利好催化之下，这个行业再次得到资金的关注。 01 传统行业集体回归 今天， A 股的成长赛道与传统行业显著的分化，较明显反映了近期科技领域的热门事件催化剂落地之后， A 股市 场的交易逻辑发生转变所致—— 由热门赛道 题材 事件 驱动转为 由 行业基本面的业绩 及 估值驱动。 在大涨的板块，近期被市场热议的 "白酒老登股"板块逆势集体大涨近 4.7% ，其中二线品牌舍得酒业、酒鬼酒、 会稽山双双罕见涨停，贵州茅台收涨 2% ，五粮液、汾酒、老窖等一线大牌分别 ...

Core Insights - The refining and trading sector saw an increase of 1.78% on November 10, with Hengyi Petrochemical leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4018.6, up 0.53%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13427.61, up 0.18% [1] Sector Performance - Hengyi Petrochemical (code: 000703) closed at 7.30, with a rise of 7.67% and a trading volume of 647,900 shares, amounting to a transaction value of 469 million yuan [1] - Wanbangda (code: 300055) closed at 9.09, up 6.32%, with a trading volume of 675,400 shares and a transaction value of 601 million yuan [1] - Dongfang Shenghong (code: 000301) closed at 10.04, increasing by 6.13%, with a trading volume of 577,400 shares and a transaction value of 571 million yuan [1] - Other notable performers include Hengtong Co. (code: 603223) with a 5.71% increase and a closing price of 10.73, and Junyang Xingchang (code: 000819) with a 5.60% increase and a closing price of 20.00 [1] Capital Flow - The refining and trading sector experienced a net inflow of 50.79 million yuan from main funds, while retail funds saw a net outflow of 20.74 million yuan [2] - Major stocks like Tongkun Co. (code: 601233) had a net inflow of 96.85 million yuan from main funds, while Wanbangda (code: 300055) saw a net outflow of 28.27 million yuan from retail funds [3] - The overall trend indicates a mixed sentiment among retail investors, with significant outflows from several stocks despite the overall sector gains [3]

Group 1 - The chemical sector has seen a significant rise, with the chemical ETF (159870) increasing by 2.12% and a net subscription of 500 million units during the trading session [1] - Multiple industries are actively responding to the domestic "anti-involution" initiative, promoting industry self-discipline to reshape product supply and demand balance, thereby boosting product prices and enhancing industry profitability [1] - According to GGII statistics, the domestic energy storage lithium battery shipment volume is expected to reach 430 GWh in the first three quarters of 2025, exceeding 30% of the total for 2024, with an anticipated annual total of 580 GWh, representing a year-on-year growth of 67% [1] Group 2 - CITIC Securities highlights three main trading lines in the chemical sector: 1) Energy storage demand driving the improvement of the industry chain's prosperity, with a reshaping of the supply-demand pattern for upstream lithium battery materials; 2) Continued emphasis on "anti-involution" in the chemical sector, leading to potential price recovery for chemical products; 3) High prosperity within the chemical industry itself, with core businesses expected to maintain high growth [1] - As of November 10, 2025, the CSI sub-sector chemical industry theme index (000813) rose by 1.86%, with significant increases in component stocks such as Luxi Chemical (000830) up by 9.99% and Hengyi Petrochemical (000703) up by 8.11% [2] - The CSI sub-sector chemical industry theme index closely tracks the performance of large and liquid listed companies in the chemical sector, reflecting the overall performance of these companies [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a cautious outlook on the PTA industry, indicating a potential for recovery but highlighting ongoing challenges in profitability [4][10]. Core Insights - The PTA industry has been experiencing prolonged losses, with a significant decline in profitability expected in 2025 due to increased production capacity and a negative gross margin of -319 RMB/ton as of November 7 [4][6]. - An increase in maintenance schedules for PTA facilities is anticipated, which may lead to a tightening of supply and a potential recovery in profitability if production cuts are realized [6][8]. - The report suggests that the polyester sector may see a recovery in profitability as supply and demand dynamics improve, particularly for leading companies like Tongkun Co. and Wankai New Materials [10]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The PTA industry has been in a state of oversupply since 2022, leading to consistent losses across the sector, with only a few companies managing to achieve marginal profits [4][6]. - Recent data indicates that the industry operating rate is at 78%, reflecting a weak market environment [8]. 2. Maintenance and Supply Dynamics - Several PTA facilities are undergoing planned maintenance, including major players like Yisheng Dihua and Sichuan Energy Investment, which may further restrict supply in the short term [6][7]. - The report notes that if leading PTA companies continue to implement production cuts, the industry could see a return to breakeven profitability levels, with potential profit margins of 200-300 RMB per ton [8]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading polyester companies and high-quality refining firms, suggesting that companies like Hengli Petrochemical and Rongsheng Petrochemical may benefit from improved market conditions [10]. - It also highlights the potential for recovery in the oil and gas sector, particularly for offshore service companies, as capital expenditures remain high [10].