2026.01. 26 本文字数：2633，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财经 魏中原 近期A股春季行情中，化工板块表现亮眼，成为市场焦点。万华化学（600309.SH）、恒力石化（600346.SH）、华鲁恒升（600426.SH）等龙头股迭创 阶段新高，环氧丙烷等化工品价格持续上涨，带动相关个股表现强劲。数据显示，1月19日至23日，基础化工板块上涨7.29%，在申万31个行业中排名第 四，该行业1月以来累计涨逾13%，跑赢电子与通信。 在以科技为主线的本轮牛市行情中，资金开始拥抱化工现象背后，是化工行业从2021年高点后经过四年低迷，正逐步走出周期底部，迎来景气度反转。 随着上市公司2025年度业绩预告密集披露，化工板块的"春意"渐浓，多家龙头化工企业的"扭亏""预增"公告，如同预告着行业基本面的回暖，行业盈利回 升趋势明显，为板块估值修复提供了坚实支撑，市场正对化工板块进行重新定价。 除了上述龙头，一批公司在报告期内实现了惊人的增长弹性或彻底的困境反转。例如，农药行业的利民股份、利尔化学等公司均预计去年净利润增幅超过 100%。更有多家公司成功"扭亏为盈"，如康达新材（002669.SZ）、万凯新 ...

美国天然气价格在1月25日出现明显上涨，期货价格自2022年以来首次达到每百万英热单位6美元。 申万宏源集团股份有限公司1月26日研报提到，三大机构上调石油供给预测，EIA预计2026年全球原油 将有283万桶/天的供应过剩，同时上调2026年原油价格预测，下调2026年天然气价格预测，EIA预计 2026、2027年原油均价为56、54美元/桶，2026、2027年美国天然气均价为3.46、4.59美元/百万英热。 东吴证券股份有限公司1月26日研报显示，美伊局势紧张对国际油价形成支撑，同时梳理了美国原油、 成品油的价格、库存、产量、需求及进出口相关数据，提及美国原油产量为1373万桶/天，环比减少2万 桶/天。国联民生证券股份有限公司1月26日研报指出，中东地缘风声再起，在供应过剩预期较为一致的 基本面背景下，地缘局势仍是主导油价的主线，在中东地缘事态扩大前，油价可能窄幅震荡，同时三大 石油机构均预期2026年原油供给存在过剩情况。中银国际证券股份有限公司1月26日研报提到，本周国 际油价与海外天然气价格均出现上涨，短期内国际油价面临关税政策与OPEC+增产的压力，但地缘风 险溢价、OPEC+的干预能力以 ...

1月26日，恒力石化盘中上涨2.03%，截至09:37，报26.68元/股，成交9921.22万元，换手率0.05%，总市 值1878.03亿元。 资金流向方面，主力资金净流出328.01万元，特大单买入226.44万元，占比2.28%，卖出219.15万元，占 比2.21%；大单买入1650.87万元，占比16.64%，卖出1986.17万元，占比20.02%。 截至9月30日，恒力石化股东户数6.73万，较上期减少9.54%；人均流通股104566股，较上期增加 10.55%。2025年1月-9月，恒力石化实现营业收入1573.84亿元，同比减少11.46%；归母净利润50.23亿 元，同比减少1.61%。 分红方面，恒力石化A股上市后累计派现261.36亿元。近三年，累计派现76.02亿元。 机构持仓方面，截止2025年9月30日，恒力石化十大流通股东中，香港中央结算有限公司位居第五大流 通股东，持股2.04亿股，相比上期减少3558.18万股。华泰柏瑞沪深300ETF（510300）位居第十大流通 股东，持股3577.83万股，为新进股东。 责任编辑：小浪快报 恒力石化今年以来股价涨18.42%，近5 ...

行 业 及 产 业 石油石化 邵靖宇 A0230524080001 shaojy@swsresearch.com 宋涛 A0230516070001 songtao@swsresearch.com 相关研究 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 研究支持 丁莹 A0230125070005 dingying@swsresearch.com 联系人 丁莹 A0230125070005 dingying@swsresearch.com 2026 年 01 月 25 日 供给增量上调，EIA 预计今年全球 原油有 283 万桶/天的供应过剩 看好 ——石油化工行业周报(2026/1/19—2026/1/25) 本期投资提示： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 - ⚫ 三大机构上调石油供给预测，EIA 预计今年全球原油将有 283 万桶/天的供应过剩。价格 端来看，EIA 上调 2026 年原油价格预测，下调 2026 年天然气价格预测：EIA 预计 2026、2027 年原油均价为 56、54 美元/桶；EIA 预计 202 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for the basic chemical industry [5] Core Views - The report highlights that the spandex industry is at a turning point, with prices reaching historical lows and recent price increases indicating a recovery in the industry [1][2] - The report emphasizes the limited new capacity in the spandex sector and the exit of outdated capacity, suggesting a favorable supply-demand balance and a positive outlook for the spandex industry [2] - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to enhance the recovery of the "refining-chemical fiber" industry chain, with improvements in market competition and supply-demand dynamics [3] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - Spandex prices have dropped from a peak of 83,750 yuan/ton in 2021 to 23,600 yuan/ton in early January 2026, a decline of 72% [1] - The report notes that spandex production capacity in China is projected to grow from 925,000 tons in 2020 to 1,430,000 tons by 2025, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.6% [2] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The apparent consumption of spandex in China is expected to increase from 720,000 tons in 2020 to 1,060,000 tons by 2025, with a CAGR of 6.7% [2] - The report indicates that the spandex industry is entering a recovery phase due to the reduction in new capacity and the exit of outdated production [2] Policy Impact - The "anti-involution" policy aims to optimize market competition and improve the supply-demand balance in the refining and chemical fiber sectors [3] - The report suggests that the refining industry is nearing the end of capacity expansion, which is expected to improve supply-demand dynamics [3] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in the polyester filament sector such as Hengli Petrochemical, Rongsheng Petrochemical, and Dongfang Shenghong, as well as spandex companies like Huafeng Chemical and Xinxiang Chemical Fiber [4]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Positive" [5] Core Viewpoints - The PVC industry is expected to undergo continuous revaluation due to its high energy consumption and carbon emissions, particularly as China approaches its carbon peak during the 14th Five-Year Plan. The supply side may face strict controls, leading to potential reductions in production quotas. The demand for PVC in developing regions such as Africa and Latin America is anticipated to drive growth, despite the challenges posed by domestic production constraints [2][7] - The petrochemical industry is experiencing an upward trend in profitability, driven by significant price increases in key products such as butadiene rubber, PX, PTA, styrene, and ethylene glycol. The market's expectations for improved demand in 2026 are contributing to this positive outlook, with potential adjustments in operational strategies by leading companies likely to reshape supply and demand dynamics [7] Summary by Relevant Sections Investment Suggestions and Targets - The report recommends several companies across various sub-sectors, including: - MDI leader: Wanhua Chemical (600309, Buy) - PVC-related companies: Zhongtai Chemical (002092, Not Rated), Xinjiang Tianye (600075, Not Rated), Chlor-alkali Chemical (600618, Not Rated), Tianyuan Co., Ltd. (002386, Not Rated) - Refining sector leaders: Sinopec (600028, Buy), Rongsheng Petrochemical (002493, Buy), Hengli Petrochemical (600346, Buy) - Phosphate chemical companies benefiting from energy storage growth: Chuanheng Co., Ltd. (002895, Not Rated), Yuntianhua (600096, Not Rated) - Oxalic acid sector: Hualu Hengsheng (600426, Buy), Huayi Group (600623, Buy), Wankai New Materials (301216, Buy) [3]

证券日报网讯 1月23日，恒力石化在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，经统计三季报中数据，出口欧盟 收入仅占三季度营收的0.39%。境内主体直接向欧盟客户出口占比较多，少部分通过第三方贸易转销。 （编辑 任世碧） ...

证券日报网讯 1月23日，恒力石化（600346）在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，原油价格上涨，传导 至下游产品中，价格会随之上涨，量稳价升的情况下会带动销售增长，但是原油价格影响的产品种类较 多，无法直接决定产品的价差和盈利情况。 ...

来源：中国能源网 投资建议与估值复盘：对于周期性行业，由于业绩的波动性较大，市盈率PE往往容易失真。我们通过 PB（MRQ）、PE（TTM）和ROE中位数得到重新修正后的PE进行复盘。我们发现目前四大民营炼化企 业的PE修正值均处于近十年相对低位。按照ROE线性回归趋势，若后续ROE突破中枢甚至迎来新一次 增长，则预计有较可观的估值提升空间（平均区间约1-3倍）。总体来看，炼化行业正处于"结构性修 复"阶段，在政策出清落后产能和自身产业链优势的双重作用下，龙头企业的估值修复逻辑正在确立。 建议关注我国民营炼化代表龙头：荣盛石化、恒力石化、恒逸石化和东方盛虹，以及已有上游布局的涤 纶长丝龙头桐昆股份。 风险提示：油价剧烈波动；下游景气度复苏不及预期；新材料等项目兑现不及预期；"反内卷"等政策变 化。（东海证券 吴骏燕,谢建斌,张季恺） "反内卷"提供重要支撑。1）政策有力牵引下产能控制逐步落实：国家明确炼油产能不超过10亿吨红 线，扩产周期基本结束。炼化"反内卷"政策通过"关停小产能+限制新增+引导行业自律"三管齐下，改善 行业竞争生态。2）成本中枢回落下，"反内卷"对产品价格托底。2025四季度至今，我们跟踪 ...

Core Viewpoint - The chemical industry is experiencing a collective shift in business strategies driven by multiple factors, leading to a recovery in industry prosperity [1] Group 1: Industry Trends - The long-standing focus on market share in China's chemical industry is being transformed, with companies now facing increased barriers to entry due to supply-side reforms, environmental checks, and dual carbon goals [1] - Internal policy adjustments and external anti-dumping investigations are signaling a necessary change in the expectations surrounding market share [2] Group 2: Business Strategy Shifts - Companies are moving towards sacrificing existing market share to enhance short-term return rates, as merely halting expansion is no longer sufficient to address inventory and excess capacity [2] - The change in business strategies is primarily driven by shifts in the mindset of entrepreneurs and management, marking a significant departure from previous industry recovery patterns [2] Group 3: Selection Criteria for Investment - The preferred selection criteria for the industry include the strength of expansion constraints and the depth of leading companies' advantages, with stronger constraints leading to lower expectations for market share-driven growth [3] - The depth of leading companies' advantages not only constrains industry expansion but also determines the potential recovery in industry return rates [3] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - Recommended investment opportunities include: - MDI: Wanhua Chemical (600309) - Petrochemicals: Sinopec (600028), Rongsheng Petrochemical (002493), Hengli Petrochemical (600346) - Phosphate Chemicals: Chuanheng Shares (002895), Yuntianhua (600096), Xingfa Group (600141) - PVC: Zhongtai Chemical (002092), Xinjiang Tianye (600075), Chlor-alkali Chemical (600618), Tianyuan Shares (002386) - Polyester Bottle Chips: Wankai New Materials (301216) [4]