公司点评报告 · 医药行业 2024年利润超预期,看好口服药持续放量 2024年年报业绩点评 2025 年 3 月 12 日 昆药集团 (股票代码:600422) | 推荐 | | --- | | 维持 | 分析师 程培 ☎: 021-2025-7805 网: chengpei_yj @chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130522100001 宋丽莹 网: songliying_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130524050001 | 市场数据 | 2024-3-12 | | --- | --- | | 股票代码 | 600422.SH | | A 股收盘价(元) | 17.56 | | 上证指数 | 3371.92 | | 总股本(万股) | 75697.58 | | 实际流通 A 股(万股) | 75697.58 | | 流通 A 股市值(乙元) | 133 | 【银河医药】公司点评报告_ 昆药集团 (600422.SH）：公司拟现金收购昆明圣火 51% 股权,持续着好银发经济第一股 2. 【银河医药】公司点评报告. (600422.SH):精品国 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for Kunming Pharmaceutical Group (stock code: 600422) [1] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 8.4 billion yuan in 2024, a slight decrease of 0.34% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 19.86% to 648 million yuan [4] - The oral medication segment showed a double-digit growth, while the injection segment faced short-term pressure due to policy impacts [4] - The company is focusing on the aging economy and chronic disease management, aiming to double its revenue by the end of 2028 [4] Financial Performance Summary - **2024 Financials**: Revenue of 8.4 billion yuan, net profit of 648 million yuan, and cash flow from operating activities of 808 million yuan [4][5] - **Growth Projections**: Expected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 741.72 million yuan, 884.19 million yuan, and 1.05 billion yuan respectively, with growth rates of 14.45%, 19.21%, and 19.22% [5][8] - **Gross Margin**: The gross margin is projected to remain stable around 43.46% to 43.59% over the next few years [5][8] Segment Performance Summary - **Oral Medications**: Revenue of 3.7 billion yuan, with a 1% year-on-year growth and a gross margin of 67% [4] - **Injection Segment**: Revenue of 540 million yuan, down 49% year-on-year, primarily due to policy changes affecting sales [4] - **Commercial Segment**: Revenue of 3.66 billion yuan, showing a 6% year-on-year growth [4] Strategic Initiatives - The company is implementing a "big product + all-channel + branding" strategy, with significant sales growth in its traditional Chinese medicine segment [4] - A five-year strategic plan (2024-2028) has been established, focusing on premium traditional Chinese medicine and chronic disease management [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5][8]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 8.4 billion RMB and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 648 million RMB for 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9% and 46% respectively. The adjusted figures, considering the consolidation of Shenghuo, show a 0% growth in revenue and a 20% growth in net profit [1]. - The company aims to achieve an industrial revenue target of 10 billion RMB by 2028, with expectations for growth in its key products, including Kunzhong Medicine and Xuesaitong [1][4]. - The three main business divisions are expected to accelerate: 1. The 1381 division is projected to grow by 20% in 2024, with significant potential for future revenue growth through brand promotion [2]. 2. The 777 division is expected to maintain stable performance with an 11% increase in sales in 2024, targeting the aging population [2]. 3. The 1951 division anticipates a recovery in revenue after a decline due to inventory control [2]. - The company is optimizing its cost structure, with a sales expense ratio of 26.5% in 2024, down 10.1 percentage points year-on-year, and a management expense ratio of 4.4% [3]. - The report outlines a five-year strategic plan and anticipates significant progress in 2025, with a focus on expanding product lines and enhancing operational efficiency [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company achieved a revenue of 8.4 billion RMB in 2024, with a net profit of 648 million RMB, marking a 9% and 46% increase year-on-year respectively [1]. - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is 7.3 billion RMB, 8.6 billion RMB, and 10.1 billion RMB respectively [5][13]. Business Segments - The 1381 division is expected to see a 20% revenue increase in 2024, driven by brand initiatives [2]. - The 777 division is projected to grow by 11% in 2024, focusing on the health needs of the elderly [2]. - The 1951 division is anticipated to recover after a significant revenue decline due to inventory management [2]. Cost Management - The sales expense ratio is expected to improve to 26.4% in 2025, reflecting enhanced operational efficiency [3]. - Management expenses are projected to increase slightly, while R&D expenses are expected to grow, indicating a commitment to innovation [3][14]. Strategic Outlook - The company is on track to meet its 10 billion RMB revenue target by 2028, with significant growth expected in 2025 [4]. - The report emphasizes the importance of the integration with China Resources and the expansion of product offerings [4].

Summary of Kunming Pharmaceutical Group Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Kunming Pharmaceutical Group - **Year**: 2024 Key Financial Performance - **Revenue**: 8.4 billion yuan, a 9.07% increase compared to the previous audited year, remaining stable year-on-year [3] - **Net Profit**: 648 million yuan, a 19.86% year-on-year increase [3] - **Net Profit (Excluding Non-recurring Items)**: 419 million yuan, a 25% year-on-year increase, marking a historical high for the company [3] - **Sales Expense Ratio**: Decreased by 4.82 percentage points [3] - **Operating Cash Flow**: 808 million yuan [3] - **Return on Equity**: Increased by 0.97 percentage points year-on-year [3] Strategic Initiatives - **Focus on Aging Population**: The company is strategically positioned in the aging health sector, supported by Huazhong Sanjiu, aiming for high-quality development [4] - **Resource Integration**: Integration of Huazhong Sanjiu resources to optimize the Kunyang business system [4] - **Reform Projects**: Initiated the Lecheng reform project and completed the acquisition of Shenghuo [4] Product Performance - **Kun Traditional Medicine Division**: Achieved a 20% year-on-year growth in core products such as Jianpiwei Granules, Shugan Granules, and Qingfei Huatan Wan [5] - **Brand Collaboration**: Enhanced brand influence through collaboration with CCTV [5] - **Overseas Business**: Significant performance with products like Qinghao Suan Zhi Pi Kuan Pian receiving international certification and global fund orders [7] Market Expansion and Sales Strategy - **Sales Growth Target**: Aiming for over 10% growth in sales of Xuesaitong oral products in 2025, utilizing a 4C model for targeted marketing [8][9] - **Brand Building**: Focus on building the 777 brand to address chronic disease management for the elderly [18] - **Sales and Pricing Strategy**: Plans to optimize sales and pricing strategies based on patient demographics and healthcare service accessibility [25] Challenges and Responses - **Impact of Centralized Procurement**: The company is adapting to the challenges posed by centralized procurement policies, which have increased competition [13] - **Frozen Powder Products**: Facing a decline in sales due to centralized procurement policies, the company is exploring new market opportunities [16] Future Outlook - **Long-term Goals**: Aiming to become a significant player in the scientific field in China and establish a global brand image for Kunming Pharmaceutical over the next decade [28] - **Strategic Execution**: Implementing a three-year plan to ensure strategic goals are met, focusing on employee motivation and organizational transformation [29] Additional Insights - **Cultural and Academic Development**: Emphasizing the importance of academic and cultural construction to enhance brand influence and market presence [10] - **Inventory Management**: Addressing inventory pressures through strategic brand building and academic promotion [24] This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, highlighting the company's financial performance, strategic initiatives, product performance, market expansion strategies, challenges, and future outlook.

Investment Rating - The report does not specify a clear investment rating for the company, but it suggests maintaining attention to the stock due to its strong brand competitiveness and stable growth in main business [7]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 84.0 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth rate of 9.07% [2][7]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company was 6.5 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 45.74% [2][7]. - The acquisition of a 51% stake in China Resources Shenghuo in December 2024 significantly enhanced the company's performance, resolving competition issues with its core product [7]. - The company aims to double its revenue by the end of 2028, targeting an industrial revenue of 10 billion yuan [7]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: Expected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 87.3 billion yuan, 94.7 billion yuan, and 103.6 billion yuan, respectively, with growth rates of 4%, 9%, and 9% [8]. - **Net Profit Forecast**: Projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 7.3 billion yuan, 8.8 billion yuan, and 10.6 billion yuan, corresponding to PE ratios of 18, 15, and 13 [7][10]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: EPS is expected to increase from 0.86 yuan in 2024 to 1.39 yuan by 2027 [2][10]. - **Return on Equity (ROE)**: ROE is projected to rise from 11.14% in 2024 to 12.79% in 2027 [2][10]. Business Segment Analysis - **Oral Pharmaceuticals**: Revenue from oral pharmaceuticals is expected to grow from 36.9 billion yuan in 2024 to 56.2 billion yuan by 2027, with a consistent growth rate of 15% [8]. - **Injectable Pharmaceuticals**: Revenue from injectable pharmaceuticals is projected to remain stable, with a slight increase from 5.4 billion yuan in 2024 to 6.2 billion yuan by 2027 [8]. - **Wholesale and Retail**: Revenue from drug wholesale and retail is expected to grow modestly from 36.6 billion yuan in 2024 to 40.3 billion yuan by 2027 [8]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on enhancing its brand value and channel distribution, particularly through partnerships with China Resources [7]. - Continuous investment in R&D, with 1.4 billion yuan allocated in 2024, aims to drive product innovation and improve treatment options for chronic diseases [7].

Investment Rating - The report suggests maintaining attention on Kunming Pharmaceutical Group with a target price not specified for the next six months [1]. Core Views - The acquisition of 51% stake in China Resources Sanjiu has significantly enhanced Kunming Pharmaceutical's performance, resolving competition issues and boosting sales of its core product, Xuesaitong soft capsules, which saw an 11.27% year-on-year increase [7]. - The company aims to double its revenue by the end of 2028, targeting 10 billion yuan in industrial revenue, driven by a strategic focus on the aging population and chronic disease treatment [7]. - The report highlights strong growth in Kunming Traditional Chinese Medicine, with a revenue of 809 million yuan and a profit margin of 16% in 2024, supported by enhanced channel strategies and brand value [7]. Financial Summary - For 2024, the company reported a revenue of 8.401 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 9.07%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 648.08 million yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 45.74% [2][10]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is projected at 0.86 yuan, with a return on equity (ROE) of 11.14% [2][10]. - The forecast for net profit for 2025-2027 is 731.76 million yuan, 884.02 million yuan, and 1.055 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 18, 15, and 13 [7][10]. Revenue and Growth Projections - The projected revenue for 2025 is 8.727 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 3.87%, and for 2026, it is expected to reach 9.473 billion yuan, growing by 8.55% [2][10]. - The report anticipates a continuous increase in sales volume for Xuesaitong soft capsules, with expected growth rates of 15% for the years 2025-2027 [8]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on enhancing its product pipeline through R&D investments, with 140 million yuan allocated in 2024, leading to the approval of new drugs for chronic diseases [7]. - The integration with China Resources is expected to further strengthen the company's market position and operational efficiency [7].

[ T able_StockInfo] 2025 年 03 月 12 日 证券研究报告•2024 年年报点评 当前价：17.77 元 昆药集团（600422）医药生物 目标价：——元（6 个月） 并表圣火开启协同，昆中药提质增效显著 | [Table_MainProfit] 指标/年度 | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（百万元） | 8401.45 | 8726.76 | 9472.63 | 10356.33 | | 增长率 | 9.07% | 3.87% | 8.55% | 9.33% | | 归属母公司净利润（百万元） | 648.08 | 731.76 | 884.02 | 1055.24 | | 增长率 | 45.74% | 12.91% | 20.81% | 19.37% | | 每股收益 EPS（元） | 0.86 | 0.97 | 1.17 | 1.39 | | 净资产收益率 ROE | 11.14% | 10.60% | 11.77% | 12.79% | | PE | 21 | 1 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Kunming Pharmaceutical Group [2] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 8.401 billion yuan in 2024, a slight decrease of 0.34% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 19.86% to 648 million yuan [6] - The acquisition of Huaren Shenghuo is expected to enhance profitability and support the strategic integration of the company's Sanqi business [6] - The stable landing of centralized procurement is anticipated to lead to a recovery in product prices, providing a favorable outlook for future earnings [6] Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company reported a revenue of 2.601 billion yuan and a net profit of 203 million yuan [6] - The company plans to distribute a dividend of 3 yuan per ten shares, resulting in a payout ratio of 35.04% [6] - The company’s core products, including "Kun Traditional Chinese Medicine 1381," have shown significant growth, with combined revenue from key products increasing by 20% [6] Strategic Developments - The integration of Huaren Shenghuo into the company’s financials is expected to bolster profits and establish a benchmark in the Sanqi industry chain [6] - The company is focusing on brand building and channel development, which are progressing steadily [6] - The centralized procurement renewal in December 2024 has stabilized prices for key products, ensuring a stable revenue stream until December 31, 2027 [6] Earnings Forecast - The projected profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are estimated at 750 million yuan, 910 million yuan, and 1.135 billion yuan respectively [6] - The price-to-earnings ratio (PE) is expected to be 18, 15, and 12 times for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [6]

医药生物/中药Ⅱ 昆药集团（600422.SH） 三七产业布局逐步优化， "创新+出海"赋能未来成长 2025 年 03 月 12 日 投资评级：买入（维持） | 日期 | 2025/3/11 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价(元) | 17.77 | | 一年最高最低(元) | 24.11/11.92 | | 总市值(亿元) | 134.51 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 134.51 | | 总股本(亿股) | 7.57 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 7.57 | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 99.96 | 股价走势图 -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 2024-03 2024-07 2024-11 昆药集团 沪深300 数据来源：聚源 相关研究报告 《2024 年利润超预期增长，2025 年轻 装上阵稳步向前 —公司信息更新报 告》-2025.2.11 《Q3 单季度营收利润环比向上，融合 变革深入推进—公司信息更新报告》 -2024.10.28 《2024H1 营收小幅承压，品牌建设工 作稳步推进—公司信息更新报告》 -2024.8.24 | 余汝意（分析师） | ...

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 公司点评 昆药集团(600422.SH) 2025 年 03 月 12 日 买入（维持） 所属行业：医药生物/中药Ⅱ 当前价格(元)：17.77 证券分析师 周新明 资格编号：S0120524060001 邮箱：zhouxm＠tebon.com.cn 向潇 市场表现 -43% -29% -14% 0% 14% 29% 2024-03 2024-07 2024-11 昆药集团 沪深300 | 沪深300对比 | 1M | 2M | 3M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对涨幅(%) | -0.45 | 13.91 | 12.18 | | 相对涨幅(%) | -1.95 | 8.31 | 13.37 | | 资料来源：德邦研究所，聚源数据 | | | | 相关研究 1.《昆药集团：集采续约平稳落地，圣 火并表未来可期》，2025.1.3 2.《昆药集团 2024 年中报点评：针剂 拖累表观业绩，口服核心品种表现亮 眼。》，2024.8.26 昆药集团 2024 年报点评：核心品种快 速增长，品牌+渠道建设稳步推进 投资要点 风险提示：品牌打 ...