Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company, with a current price of 23.25 CNY and a fair value of 24.41 CNY [1]. Core Views - The report highlights that the special government bond funding will support the replacement of old vessels, which is expected to benefit the leading ship power company. The policy aims to accelerate the retirement and replacement of old, high-energy-consuming and high-emission vessels with new energy and clean energy vessels [1]. - The report notes that the company is well-positioned to benefit from the new subsidy policies aimed at promoting the replacement of old vessels, particularly in the inland and coastal shipping sectors. The company’s products include medium-speed engines and integrated electric propulsion systems, which align with the government's green initiatives [1]. - The earnings forecast estimates the company's EPS for 2024, 2025, and 2026 to be 0.54 CNY, 0.77 CNY, and 1.17 CNY per share, respectively. The report maintains a fair value estimate of 24.41 CNY per share, corresponding to a 45 times PE valuation for 2024 [1]. Financial Summary - The company's revenue is projected to grow from 38,280 million CNY in 2022 to 61,244 million CNY in 2026, with a CAGR of approximately 13.3% [2][6]. - The EBITDA is expected to increase significantly from 1,537 million CNY in 2022 to 5,743 million CNY in 2026, indicating strong operational performance [2][6]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to rise from 336 million CNY in 2022 to 2,569 million CNY in 2026, reflecting a robust growth trajectory [2][6]. - The report indicates a significant improvement in the company's profitability metrics, with the net profit margin expected to increase from 1.0% in 2022 to 6.4% in 2026 [6]. Investment Insights - The report emphasizes the company's leading position in the ship power sector and its commitment to high-end, intelligent, and green development, which aligns with national policies promoting environmental sustainability [1]. - The anticipated demand for the replacement of old vessels and the transition to new energy vessels is expected to drive growth for the company, enhancing its market share and profitability [1].

| 证券代码：600482 | 证券简称：中国动力 | 公告编号：2024-044 | | --- | --- | --- | | 债券代码：110807 | 债券简称：动力定 01 | | | 债券代码：110808 | 债券简称：动力定 02 | | 中国船舶重工集团动力股份有限公司 关于实施 2023 年度权益分派期间可转债停止转股的提 示性公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： 证券停复牌情况：适用 中国船舶重工集团动力股份有限公司（以下简称"中国动力"或"公司"）因 实施 2023 年度权益分派,公司可转债转股停复牌情况如下：自权益分派公告披露 前一交易日（2024 年 7 月 31 日）起至权益分派股权登记日止，公司可转换公司债 券"动力定 01"（债券代码：110807）、"动力定 02"（债券代码：110808）（以下 合称"可转债"）将停止转股。 注：停牌终止日及复牌日可在公司后续发布的权益分派实施公告和转股价格调整公告中查阅。 一、 权益分派方案的基本情况 （一）2024 年 ...

Summary of the Conference Call on China Power Company Overview - **Company**: China Power, a subsidiary of China Shipbuilding, focuses on power equipment including gas, cycle, chemical, and diesel engines, with a comprehensive range of supporting fields [7][21]. Key Financial Highlights - **2024 Half-Year Profit Forecast**: Expected net profit between 459 million to 516 million CNY, representing a growth of 60% to 80% year-on-year [2]. - **Q2 2024 Profit Forecast**: Projected net profit for Q2 between 370 million to 428 million CNY, showing a year-on-year increase of 46.63% to 69.3% [3]. - **Q2 2024 Deducted Profit**: Expected between 329 million to 384 million CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 177.86% to 224% [3]. Industry Dynamics - **Global Shipbuilding Market**: Total global order volume in 2023 reached 107 million deadweight tons, a year-on-year increase of nearly 28% [4]. - **China's Shipbuilding Performance**: In 2023, China's shipbuilding completion volume increased by 11.8%, new orders by 56.4%, and first-time orders by 32% [5]. - **Market Share**: In Q1 2024, China's shipbuilding completion volume, new orders, and mobile banking accounted for 53.8%, 69.6%, and 56.7% of the global market, respectively [6]. Market Trends - **Aging Fleet Replacement**: The average replacement cycle for ships is 25 to 30 years, with a significant portion of the global fleet approaching this age, indicating a sustained demand for new vessels [8]. - **Environmental Regulations**: New carbon intensity and emission indices effective from January 1, 2023, require a 15% to 50% reduction in emissions for various ship types, driving demand for upgraded engines [9][10]. Product Development - **Dual-Fuel Engines**: Sales of dual-fuel engines reached a new high with 133 LNG dual-fuel engines sold, a year-on-year increase of 7.73%, and 34 methanol dual-fuel engines, up 41.67% [10]. - **Technological Advancements**: The shift towards dual-fuel engines is expected to enhance the value proposition and market penetration of these products [11]. Production Capacity - **Production Status**: The company is currently operating at full capacity, with orders extending into 2026 and production plans for low and medium-speed engines projected to increase by 10.7% [12][13]. Profitability Factors - **Revenue Drivers**: Key factors for revenue growth include rising ship prices, increased demand for dual-fuel engines, and larger engine sizes [13][14]. - **Cost Management**: A decline in steel prices is expected to reduce manufacturing costs for diesel engines, positively impacting profit margins [14]. Strategic Positioning - **Brand Development**: The company is enhancing its proprietary brand capabilities, moving from pure OEM to a dual strategy of OEM and brand development [15][21]. - **Market Resilience**: The company is positioned to benefit from the recovery in the defense and application industries, with stable profit levels expected from its battery and wind power businesses [19]. Future Outlook - **Profit Forecast**: Projected net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 1.188 billion, 1.692 billion, and 2.569 billion CNY, respectively, with PE ratios of 39, 27, and 1.26 [22]. - **Risks**: Potential risks include fluctuations in raw material prices, currency exchange rate volatility, and uncertainties in the coal and automotive sectors [22]. Conclusion - **Investment Recommendation**: China Power is expected to benefit significantly from the recovery in the shipbuilding industry, driven by aging fleet replacements, environmental regulations, and technological advancements in dual-fuel engines [20][24].

Financial Data and Key Indicators Changes - The company expects a net profit of 459 million to 516 million yuan for the first half of 2024, representing a growth of 60% to 80% year-on-year [2] - The expected net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses is projected to be between 383 million and 437 million yuan, showing a significant increase of 180% to 220% compared to the same period last year [2] - For Q2 2024, the anticipated net profit is between 370 million and 428 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 46.63% to 69.3% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 321.01% to 386.13% [3] Business Line Data and Key Indicators Changes - The company operates in various power sectors, including gas, cycle, chemical, and diesel power, with a comprehensive range of supporting fields [7] - The production of low-speed and medium-speed engines is at full capacity, with orders extending to at least 2026 and 2027, respectively [11] - The company has seen a significant increase in dual-fuel engine sales, with 133 LNG dual-fuel engines sold, up 7.73% year-on-year, and 34 methanol dual-fuel engines, up 41.67% year-on-year [9] Market Data and Key Indicators Changes - The global shipbuilding market has shown a total order volume of 107 million deadweight tons in 2023, a year-on-year increase of nearly 28% [4] - China's shipbuilding completion volume for 2024 Q1 has a global market share of 53.8%, with new orders at 69.6% and mobile banking at 56.7% [6] - The Clarksons new ship price index reached 191.51 points in June 2024, with a year-on-year increase of 9.54%, nearing historical highs [6] Company Strategy and Development Direction and Industry Competition - The company emphasizes the ongoing demand for replacing aging ships, which is expected to extend the current market cycle [8] - The dual-fuel engine market is anticipated to grow significantly due to stricter emission regulations coming into effect [8] - The company is focusing on enhancing its own brand capabilities and reducing reliance on foreign patents, which is expected to improve profitability [14][15] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management believes that the shipbuilding industry's recovery will provide significant revenue growth opportunities for the company [19] - The company is optimistic about the impact of declining steel prices on manufacturing costs, which could enhance profit margins [13] - The management highlighted the importance of the defense sector and the application industry, which are expected to contribute to stable growth [18] Other Important Information - The company forecasts net profits of 1.188 billion, 1.692 billion, and 2.569 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 39, 27, and 1.26 [21] - Risks include fluctuations in raw material prices and uncertainties in the coal and automotive industries [21] Q&A Session Summary Question: What are the key growth drivers for the company? - The company identified the rising ship prices, declining steel costs, and accelerated development of its own brand as key factors driving profitability [15] Question: How does the company plan to address competition in the dual-fuel engine market? - The company aims to enhance its technological capabilities and reduce costs through improved production efficiency and brand development [14][19]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a significant increase in profit, with a non-recurring profit growth of approximately 120% year-on-year in the first half of the year, indicating a notable improvement in operational efficiency [1] - The unit net profit showed clear growth both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter, suggesting strong financial performance [1] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The traditional diesel engine business accounted for over 40% of the company's revenue last year, with a higher gross margin compared to military defense and application industries, indicating strong profitability [1] - The military defense business contributed around 10% to the revenue, while the application industry accounted for about 45%, with growth primarily driven by the marine low-speed engine sector [1] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The shipbuilding industry is currently in an upward cycle, with new orders in June showing a significant year-on-year increase of nearly 25%, particularly for container ships, which saw orders grow nearly threefold [2][3] - Ship prices have risen approximately 50% since the end of 2020, with engine prices increasing even more significantly, highlighting a strong market demand [4] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on enhancing its global competitiveness, particularly in high-value storage, and aims to expand beyond just engine manufacturing into R&D and after-sales services [7] - The company plans to improve production capacity through technological upgrades and additional testing platforms, potentially increasing capacity by 20-30% [6] Management Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the company's ability to exceed profit expectations due to strong order delivery, product structure optimization, and engine price increases [1] - The management noted that the shipbuilding industry's upward trend is driven by environmental demands for upgrades, with expectations for continued growth until 2030 [3] Other Important Information - The company has seen a significant increase in the proportion of dual-fuel engines in new orders, which exceeded 40% last year and continued to rise in the first half of this year, contributing to improved profitability [6] - Diesel engine profit margins have shown a notable increase, approaching 10%, with expectations for strong overall profit margins as engine prices rise [8] Q&A Session Summary Question: What is the outlook for the shipbuilding industry? - The shipbuilding industry is expected to maintain an upward trend, with ship prices having further room for increase due to tight capacity and rising demand [3][4] Question: How is the company positioned in the global market? - The company holds a 78% market share in the domestic low-speed engine market and nearly 40% globally, indicating strong competitive positioning [7] Question: What are the key factors driving profitability? - The key drivers of profitability include the increase in high-value product deliveries, particularly dual-fuel engines, and the overall improvement in operational efficiency [1][6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is upgraded to "Buy" [5] Core Views - The company expects a significant increase in net profit attributable to shareholders for the first half of 2024, projecting a growth of 60% to 80% year-on-year, with net profit estimated between 459 million to 516 million yuan [1] - The growth is primarily driven by the robust development of the shipbuilding industry, with increased sales and orders for marine diesel engines, as well as higher profit margins on key products [1][2] - The overall shipbuilding industry is experiencing an upward trend, with improved profitability due to increased demand and rising ship prices, indicating a favorable long-term outlook for leading companies in the sector [2] Summary by Sections Company Performance - The company anticipates a substantial increase in net profit for the first half of 2024, with a projected net profit of 459 to 516 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 60% to 80% [1] - The expected non-recurring profit is projected to be between 383 to 437 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 180% to 220% [1] Industry Outlook - The shipbuilding industry is on an upward trajectory, with significant growth in demand, as evidenced by a 12% increase in completed orders and a 56% increase in new orders in 2023 [2] - The Clarkson new ship price index reached 187 points as of June 2024, marking a 9.4% year-on-year increase, indicating a historical peak in ship prices [2][8] Financial Projections - The company’s net profit is projected to grow to 1.29 billion yuan in 2024, 2.16 billion yuan in 2025, and 3.13 billion yuan in 2026, with respective growth rates of 66%, 67%, and 45% [3][4] - The price-to-earnings ratio is expected to decrease from 36 times in 2024 to 15 times in 2026, reflecting improved profitability [3][4]

Summary of Conference Call Company and Industry - The conference call discusses **China Dongli**, a company in the **defense industry** [1]. Core Points and Arguments - **Performance Announcement**: China Dongli released a preliminary announcement regarding its **half-year performance**, indicating a significant increase in earnings for the year 2024 [1]. - **Growth Logic**: The speaker, a chief analyst from the defense policy institute, aims to clarify the growth logic behind China Dongli's performance [1]. Other Important Content - The call emphasizes the importance of understanding the underlying factors contributing to the company's projected growth [1].

Summary of Conference Call Company/Industry Involved - The conference call pertains to Changjiang Securities Research Institute Core Points and Arguments - The conference call is exclusively for clients on the whitelist of Changjiang Securities Research Institute, indicating a selective audience for the information shared [1] - Any institution or individual is prohibited from disclosing, copying, publishing, or forwarding the content of the meeting without prior written permission from Changjiang Securities [1] - Changjiang Securities reserves the right to pursue legal action for any consequences or legal liabilities arising from unauthorized dissemination of the meeting content [1] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The call emphasizes the importance of confidentiality and legal compliance regarding the information shared during the meeting [1]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance in the next 12 months [3]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of between 459 million to 516 million yuan for the first half of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 60% to 80%. The net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses is projected to be between 383 million to 437 million yuan, reflecting a significant increase of 180% to 220% compared to the same period last year [1][2]. - The report highlights strong growth in the company's performance for the first half of 2024, driven by an increase in sales volume and orders in the diesel engine segment, as well as improved pricing and gross margins for key products [1]. - The company is benefiting from the replacement of aging ships and the low-carbon transformation of shipping, which is expected to enhance the penetration rate of high-value dual-fuel engines [1]. Financial Forecasts - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for the company from 2024 to 2026 are projected to be 0.54 yuan, 0.77 yuan, and 1.17 yuan, respectively [1][2]. - The report anticipates revenue growth rates of 8.6% in 2024, 10.4% in 2025, and 13.3% in 2026, with a significant increase in net profit expected in the coming years [2][5]. - The company’s estimated price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for 2024 is 45 times, leading to a target price of 24.41 yuan per share [1][3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [2] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a significant increase in profits for the first half of 2024, with a projected net profit of 459-516 million RMB, representing a year-on-year increase of 60%-80% [2][4] - The growth is attributed to the expansion of the shipbuilding industry, increased sales of marine low-speed engines, and higher order prices and gross margins for key products [2][4] - The company benefits from its strong position as a leading manufacturer of marine low-speed diesel engines, backed by the China Shipbuilding Group, enhancing its order certainty [2][4] - The report highlights the company's advanced dual-fuel engine technology, which is expected to improve its order intake capabilities [2][4] - The increase in engine prices and the decline in steel prices are anticipated to further enhance the company's profitability [2][4] Summary by Sections Performance Analysis - The company expects a net profit of 4.59-5.16 billion RMB for 1H24, a year-on-year increase of 1.72-2.30 billion RMB [2] - The projected net profit after deducting non-recurring items is 3.83-4.37 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.46-3.01 billion RMB [2] - The growth is driven by the shipbuilding industry's positive development and increased sales of high-margin products [2][4] Market Position and Technology - The company holds a 78% market share in domestic low-speed diesel engines and a 39% share internationally [2] - In 2023, the company secured 560 new orders for low-speed diesel engines, a 42.5% increase year-on-year [2] - The report emphasizes the company's leading position in dual-fuel engine technology, with successful deliveries of multiple first-of-their-kind engines [2] Financial Forecast - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are 52.64 billion RMB, 61.10 billion RMB, and 70.99 billion RMB, respectively [2][4] - Expected net profits for the same period are 1.15 billion RMB, 1.94 billion RMB, and 2.98 billion RMB, with corresponding P/E ratios of 40, 24, and 16 [2][4]