Core Insights - The public fund industry in China achieved a record profit of 2.6 trillion yuan in 2025, recovering from a cumulative loss of 1.87 trillion yuan from 2022 to 2023 [1][2] - Despite a loss of approximately 110 billion yuan in Q4 2025, the overall annual performance marked a significant recovery for the industry [2][3] Fund Performance - In Q4 2025, public funds reported a total loss of 1,097.65 billion yuan, ending a streak of seven consecutive profitable quarters [2][3] - Equity funds were the hardest hit, with a combined loss of 1,306.91 billion yuan in Q4, while mixed funds lost 499.56 billion yuan [3][4] - For the entire year, equity funds still managed to generate a profit of 1.99 trillion yuan, despite the Q4 downturn [4] Product Categories - QDII funds and FOF funds also faced losses in Q4, amounting to 710.47 billion yuan and 2.12 billion yuan respectively, but ended the year with profits of 1,125.22 billion yuan and 186.38 billion yuan [4] - Fixed-income products, including bond and money market funds, contributed significantly to profits, with bond funds earning 580.81 billion yuan and money market funds 443.13 billion yuan [4] Fund Company Performance - Among 167 fund companies, 108 reported positive profits, with over 60% achieving profitability [5] - Notable performers included Guotou Ruijin Fund, which led the industry with a profit of 72.82 billion yuan [5] Stock Holdings Adjustments - Public funds increased their holdings in 83 new stocks by the end of Q4 2025, with a focus on technology and cyclical sectors [7] - Ningde Times remained the top holding stock, despite a reduction of 1,993 million shares, while Zhongji Xuchuang became the most held stock among active funds [10][11] Sector Focus - The communication sector, particularly in optical modules, saw increased institutional investment, with Zhongji Xuchuang and Xinye Technology becoming top holdings [10] - The top three sectors for public fund investments were electronics, power equipment, and communication, with significant capital allocated to these areas [13]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the food and beverage industry [5] Core Insights - The upcoming Spring Festival is expected to boost sales in the liquor sector, with Moutai leading the industry towards an unexpected improvement. Short-term focus should be on the demand for the Spring Festival, while medium-term investments should target leading brands across various price segments [1] - In the beer segment, new product launches are being prepared, with a focus on high-growth channels and consumer trends towards personalized and diversified consumption [2] - The baking sector is showing stable performance, with companies like Lihigh Foods preparing for the sales peak and benefiting from favorable policies regarding cream products [3] Summary by Relevant Sections Liquor Sector - The Spring Festival is driving demand, with Moutai expected to lead the market. Key short-term stocks include Guizhou Moutai, Guo Jiu Gong Jiu, and others, while medium-term focus should be on Wuliangye and Shanxi Fenjiu [1] Beer Sector - Current beer sales are in a low season, but new product launches and high growth in instant retail channels are promising. Companies like Chongqing Beer are launching new 1L cans to meet consumer preferences [2] Food Sector - Lihigh Foods is preparing for the sales peak with a focus on quality over quantity, while Anqi Yeast is benefiting from declining sugarcane prices, enhancing profit margins [3] - Yizhi Konjac is experiencing rapid demand growth, with a stable supply chain and product innovation driving its market position [4]

科技商业观察家。爆品战略提出者。 作者：云摇 来源：金错刀 2026年第一批被抢空的爆款，竟然是飞天茅台。 以下文章来源于金错刀 ，作者云摇 金错刀 . 与茅台的热闹形成刺眼对比的是，遍地狼藉的烟酒店。 中国烟酒流通协会数据显示，2025年全国烟酒店数量锐减约19%，相当于一年消失了32万家。过 去5年里，全国已有超130万家烟酒店倒闭，平均每天有近900家店旺铺转让。 曾几何时，名烟名酒的招牌是街头巷尾最坚挺的风景线，开烟酒店更是很多人心中旱涝保收的铁饭 碗。只要一手握着烟草专卖证，一手握着几个单位团购客户就能年入百万，有的甚至能开成"传家 店"。 如今这场席卷全国的关闭潮，彻底撕碎了烟酒店的躺赚神话。 01 中年人最爱的烟酒店，成了烫手山芋 烟酒店这门生意，兴起于上世纪90年代，最早由河南许昌、商丘等地的农民进城经营，以老乡传帮 带的方式迅速在全国开枝散叶。 ----------------------------- 开年第一天，i茅台上架1499元的飞天茅台，每人每天限购12瓶，前1分钟服务器直接崩溃，哪怕 平台每隔5分钟补货一次 都被瞬间抢空 ，仅半小时就全部售罄。 在信息不透明的年代，店主靠着价格差 ...

[Table_Page] 深度分析|食品饮料 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 食品饮料行业 25Q4 持仓分析：白酒再降，大众品回暖 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： | [Table_Grade] 行业评级 | 买入 | | --- | --- | | 前次评级 | 买入 | | 报告日期 | 2026-01-25 | [Table_PicQuote] 相对市场表现 -10% -2% 6% 14% 22% 30% 01/25 04/25 06/25 08/25 11/25 01/26 食品饮料 沪深300 [分析师： Table_Author]符蓉 SAC 执证号：S0260523120002 SFC CE No. BWC944 021-38003552 furong@gf.com.cn 分析师： 周源 SAC 执证号：S0260525040003 fzzhouyuan@gf.com.cn 请注意，周源并非香港证券及期货事务监察委员会的注册 持牌人，不可在香港从事受监管活动。 | | | | 食品饮料行业:如何布局零食 | 2026-01-20 | | --- | --- | | "春季 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The food and beverage sector is currently at a low position in terms of fundamentals and valuations, presenting significant investment opportunities as the peak season approaches [4][12] - The food and beverage index experienced a decline of 1.4% from January 19 to January 23, ranking 25th among 28 sectors, underperforming the CSI 300 by approximately 0.8 percentage points [12][13] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.8% year-on-year in December 2025, indicating a mild recovery trend, and has returned to relatively high levels compared to recent years [4][12] - The upcoming Spring Festival is expected to catalyze performance in the sector, with strong demand for consumer goods, particularly in the snack segment, which continues to show upward momentum [4][12] Summary by Sections Weekly Insights - The food and beverage sector is positioned for a recovery as it approaches the peak season, with a notable increase in demand expected during the Spring Festival [4][12] - The sector's current valuation aligns with policy support aimed at boosting consumption, providing a safety margin for investments [4][12] Market Performance - The food and beverage index's performance was weaker than the broader market, with specific sub-sectors like snacks (+6.1%), processed foods (+4.9%), and baked goods (+4.3%) showing relative strength [12][13] Upstream Data - Recent data indicates a decline in some upstream raw material prices, with whole milk powder prices down 13.5% year-on-year as of January 20, 2026 [19][21] - The price of fresh milk was reported at 3.03 CNY per kilogram, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 2.6% [19][21] Alcohol Industry Data - In December 2025, the production of liquor (65-degree equivalent) decreased by 12.1% year-on-year, with a total production of 354.9 million liters for the year [42][43] Recommended Investment Targets - Key investment opportunities identified include raw milk/dairy products, the snack sector, and the restaurant supply chain, with specific companies highlighted for their growth potential [4][5][12]

[Table_Page] 投资策略|专题报告 2026 年 1 月 25 日 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 公募基金四季报是否会影响我们对 市场和板块的判断？ ——公募基金 25 年 Q4 配置分析 [Table_Summary] 报告摘要： | [分析师： Table_Author]刘晨明 | | --- | | SAC 执证号：S0260524020001 | | SFC CE No. BVH021 | | 010-59136616 | | liuchenming@gf.com.cn | | 分析师： 郑恺 | | SAC 执证号：S0260515090004 | | SFC CE No. BUU989 | | 021-38003559 | | zhengkai@gf.com.cn | | 分析师： 杨清源 | | SAC 执证号：S0260525080001 | | yangqingyuan@gf.com.cn | | 请注意，杨清源并非香港证券及期货事务监察委员会的注 | | 册持牌人，不可在香港从事受监管活动。 | [联系人： Table_Contac毕露露 ts] 1860044269 ...

Core Viewpoint - The latest public fund top ten heavy stocks show a significant shift, with AI technology and new energy stocks occupying nine positions, leaving only one for Kweichow Moutai, indicating a divergence in the consumer sector [1][2]. Group 1: Changes in Fund Holdings - As of 2025, only Kweichow Moutai remains among the top ten heavy stocks in public active equity funds, with the other nine being tech and new energy companies like Zhongji Xuchuang and Ningde Times [2]. - In Q4 2021, three liquor stocks were among the top ten heavy stocks, including Moutai and Wuliangye, which were key players in the previous structural market [2]. - By the end of 2025, 1,048 funds held Kweichow Moutai, with a total market value of 118.203 billion yuan, ranking fourth among the top ten heavy stocks [2]. Group 2: Performance of Traditional Consumer Funds - Some funds have been loyal to traditional liquor stocks, with E Fund Blue Chip Select holding Kweichow Moutai for 29 consecutive quarters and Invesco Great Wall New Growth for 36 quarters [3]. - Many funds focusing on traditional consumption have seen poor performance, with some funds losing over 30% since inception and others reporting negative returns for four consecutive years [3]. - Fund managers focusing on traditional consumption often neglect to analyze their heavy holdings, instead discussing macroeconomic factors, which may indicate a disconnect from their investment strategies [3]. Group 3: Emergence of New Consumption Trends - New consumption trends, such as collectible toys and the "millet economy," have gained traction, with funds increasingly investing in these areas, while traditional consumer funds remain unresponsive [4][5]. - For example, Pop Mart has 123 funds holding it, with significant positions taken by active equity funds that are not traditional consumer funds [5]. - The divide between new and old consumption is perceived as non-existent, with both being products of changing market demands and technological advancements [5][6]. Group 4: Future Consumption Opportunities - Consumption remains a vital driver of economic growth, with expectations for service consumption in entertainment, gaming, and tourism to provide new investment opportunities [6][7]. - Fund managers suggest that the previous optimism surrounding traditional consumption stocks may be misplaced, advocating for a focus on emerging sectors like gaming and sports as new growth areas [7]. - The integration of technology and manufacturing is expected to create synergies, particularly in the robotics sector, which is becoming increasingly relevant across various industries [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a cautious outlook on the liquor industry, particularly on high-end liquor such as Moutai, with expectations of gradual recovery in sales and pricing stability post-Spring Festival [10][11][12]. Core Insights - The high-end liquor segment, especially Moutai, is experiencing a sales boost as the Spring Festival approaches, with expectations of price recovery due to increased demand driven by wealth effects [10][11]. - The report suggests that the market's concerns about post-festival price drops for Moutai are likely to be unfounded, predicting only minor seasonal fluctuations [10][12]. - The overall sentiment in the liquor industry is shifting from a pessimistic outlook to a more stable one, with expectations of improved sales dynamics as external constraints on consumption ease [11][12]. Summary by Sections Liquor Industry - The report highlights that Moutai's sales are performing better than previously cautious expectations, leading to a price recovery for both Moutai and newer Moutai products [10]. - It is noted that the market is still wary of potential price declines after the Spring Festival, but historical patterns suggest only minor adjustments are likely [10][11]. - The report emphasizes the importance of brand strength and market positioning for high-end liquor companies, recommending investments in brands with strong market presence and growth potential [12]. Beer Industry - The beer sector is seeing a steady recovery in on-premise consumption, with companies diversifying into non-drink channels and soft drinks [12]. - The report suggests that the beer industry's performance is expected to stabilize, with a focus on maintaining competitive pricing and improving dividend yields [12]. Snack Industry - The snack sector is benefiting from pre-Spring Festival stocking and product innovation, with companies like Qiaqia and Ganyuan expected to show significant profit elasticity due to low comparative bases [14]. - The report recommends focusing on leading snack companies that are expanding their store presence and adapting their product offerings [14]. Beverage Industry - The soft drink sector is currently facing challenges due to seasonal demand fluctuations and competition from ready-to-drink tea brands, leading to a slight decline in overall sales growth [14]. - Despite these challenges, leading brands like Dongpeng and Nongfu are expected to maintain double-digit growth through brand strength and market share consolidation [14]. Seasoning Industry - The seasoning sector is stabilizing as restaurant demand begins to recover, with expectations of improved performance in 2026 driven by seasonal effects [15]. - The report highlights companies like Angel Yeast and Qianhe Condiments as having strong growth potential due to favorable market conditions and dividend yields [15].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating for the food and beverage industry, indicating a positive outlook compared to the market benchmark [6]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the recovery of the consumer price index (CPI) in December, suggesting a turning point in supply and demand dynamics. It highlights the importance of focusing on growth opportunities and the valuation flexibility of consumer goods [3][9]. - The report identifies key investment targets in the liquor sector, including Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, and Luzhou Laojiao, as well as other brands expected to clear inventory [9]. - The beverage sector is expected to benefit from improved travel conditions, with recommendations for companies like Dongpeng Beverage and Nongfu Spring [9]. - The report notes the ongoing recovery in the restaurant supply chain and the high growth potential of companies like Bailong Chuangyuan [15]. Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with price elasticity, including Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, and Luzhou Laojiao, as well as those expected to clear inventory like Yingjia Gongjiu and Guxi Gongjiu [9]. - It recommends beverage companies such as Dongpeng Beverage and Nongfu Spring, while also highlighting low-valuation, high-dividend stocks like China Foods and Master Kong [9]. - For snacks and food raw materials, it suggests Bailong Chuangyuan, Yanjinpuzi, and Three Squirrels as growth targets [9]. Liquor Sector Insights - As the Spring Festival approaches, the report highlights the importance of monitoring sales volume and pricing. It notes that the peak sales period is expected in February, with varying performance among brands [10]. - The report mentions that the liquor industry faced a significant production decline in 2025, with a total output of 3.549 million kiloliters, a year-on-year decrease of 12.1%, marking the largest drop since 2019 [11][13]. - It anticipates that the recovery in market conditions and inventory reduction will take time, with companies likely to maintain relationships through pricing strategies [11]. Consumer Goods Sector Insights - The report indicates that the restaurant supply chain is recovering, with the pre-prepared food sector expected to benefit from new national standards [15]. - Bailong Chuangyuan is highlighted for its strong growth, reporting a revenue of 1.38 billion yuan in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 19.8%, and a net profit of 366 million yuan, up 48.9% [15][16]. - The report notes that the company’s growth is driven by product optimization and increased production capacity utilization [16].

| 食品饮料《茅台市场化转型，消费触底反弹可 | | --- | | 期》2026.01.18 | | 食品饮料《渠道变革，精酿崛起》2026.01.13 | | 食品饮料《CPI 环比提速，消费回升可期》 | | 2026.01.11 | | 食品饮料《破局见成效，看多餐供》2026.01.11 | | 食品饮料《服务消费的春天》2026.01.10 | 股 票 研 究 究 报 告 白酒探底，餐供积极 [Table_Industry] 食品饮料 ——食品饮料行业周报 2026 年第 4 期 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 訾猛(分析师) | 021-38676442 | zimeng@gtht.com | S0880513120002 | | 颜慧菁(分析师) | 021-23183952 | yanhuijing@gtht.com | S0880525040022 | | 程碧升(分析师) | 021-23185685 | chengbisheng@gtht.com | S0880525040031 | ...