在资本市场此时茅台股价与四年前的高光形成鲜明反差，舆论中看衰声音不绝于耳。 考虑到此前茅台也多次历经低谷（如2012年的白酒塑化剂风波），每次都是以售价和股价的下挫为代价，但经历低谷 之后，数据又都会回到正轨。 在零售价格的一路下行中，茅台这个昔日A股头号企业也已是风光不再，尤其最近传出"抖音封停低价茅台"，更是引 起市场强烈反应：原来茅台已经到了要严格"控价"的地步。 那么这次茅台的下行有什么特殊的地方呢？本文核心观点： 其一，茅台庞大的经销商体系为系列酒走量贡献颇大，但也是当前飞天甩货的主力； 其二，茅台的渠道控价能力已显疲态； 其三，茅台景气度盯紧应收票据和M1同比数据，拐点大概在2026年中。 经销商甩货：茅台失去控价能力 与所有白酒企业一样，茅台采取了"经销商+自营"的销售体系，尤其各地庞大的经销商群体更是链接各地优质客户资 源的桥梁，是茅台创造既往辉煌的一大功臣。 不过在现实运营中，经销商体系也暴露出种种弊端。 如腐败（历任茅台高管腐败均与此密不可分），又比如茅台集团失去对终端价格的控制力（53度飞天茅台1499的指导 价在零售市场形同虚设），又比如在茅台旺季之时，各地经销商会囤积居奇，不仅可以赚 ...

曾经并肩站上高端消费神坛的"药茅"片仔癀与"酒茅"茅台，如今正经历冰火两重天。 另一边是茅台的"韧性依旧"：前三季度营收净利润稳步增长，品牌护城河持续筑牢，即便价格回调仍稳坐行业龙头。 同样面临消费市场变革，为何曾经的"双子星"走向两极？这场分化背后，是神话破灭还是理性回归？ 一、片仔癀：从"药茅"到"跌茅"，神话为何崩塌？ 2. 价格体系崩塌，存货堆积成山 作为核心产品的片仔癀锭剂，价格崩塌成为危机的直观写照。2021年被炒至1600元/粒的"天价神药"，如今二级市场回收价仅400-500元/粒，电商平台自营 售价低至599元/粒，甚至低于760元的官方指导价，出现明显"价格倒挂"。 分区域数据更能反映市场的萎缩态势：除华南地区（+7.28%）、西北地区（+3.95%）外，其余地区营收均大幅下滑。 价格暴跌背后是需求的急剧萎缩，有零售商透露："现在一个月可能也卖不了几颗，消费者对高价片仔癀已经不买账了。" 需求疲软直接导致存货激增，截至2025年9月末，片仔癀存货余额达到61.6亿元的历史高位，较2022年末的27亿元增幅超一倍，产品滞销问题严峻。 四年时间，片仔癀的A股神话近乎归零，多重危机叠加让其难以招 ...

Core Viewpoint - The white liquor industry is experiencing a "volume increase and price decline" trend during the 2025 "Double 11" shopping festival, driven by inventory pressure and promotional strategies from e-commerce platforms [1] Industry Summary - On November 20, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3931.05 points, down 0.4%, while the white liquor sector closed at 2292.87 points, down 0.78% [1] - Among individual stocks, Kweichow Moutai closed at 1467.11 CNY per share, down 0.27%; Wuliangye closed at 120.25 CNY per share, up 0.3%; Shanxi Fenjiu closed at 193.4 CNY per share, down 0.97%; Luzhou Laojiao closed at 136.85 CNY per share, down [1] Company Summary - Tianfeng Securities reported that the price of famous liquor brands on traditional e-commerce platforms has fallen below the bottom line due to the pressure of dealer inventory and promotional activities [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese liquor industry is experiencing a "volume increase and price decline" trend during the 2025 "Double 11" shopping festival, with traditional e-commerce platforms facing significant price drops due to inventory pressures and promotional strategies from distributors [1] Industry Summary - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3931.05 points, down 0.4%, with the liquor sector closing at 2292.87 points, down 0.78%, and 11 liquor stocks declining [1] - Major liquor companies showed mixed performance: Kweichow Moutai closed at 1467.11 CNY per share, down 0.27%; Wuliangye closed at 120.25 CNY per share, up 0.3%; Shanxi Fenjiu closed at 193.4 CNY per share, down 0.97%; Luzhou Laojiao closed at 136.85 CNY per share, down 0.21%; Yanghe Brewery closed at 68.26 CNY per share, down 0.32% [1] Market Dynamics - Traditional e-commerce platforms are seeing prices for famous liquor brands drop below acceptable levels due to the pressure from distributor inventory and platform subsidies aimed at attracting customers [1] - Emerging channels like instant retail and Douyin are experiencing growth, indicating a shift in consumer behavior towards "buy now, drink now" scenarios [1] - Liquor companies are actively launching anti-counterfeiting measures by publishing authorized "white lists" and unauthorized "black lists" to stabilize prices and balance online traffic with offline channel interests [1] - The industry is expected to shift from price wars to value reconstruction, focusing on high-quality price-performance products and refined channel operations in the medium to long term [1]

Core Insights - The article highlights the investment philosophy and business strategies of Duan Yongping, a prominent figure in both the manufacturing and investment sectors, often referred to as "China's Warren Buffett" [3][19]. Group 1: Investment Philosophy - Duan emphasizes that investing is fundamentally about understanding the company rather than merely speculating on stock prices, stating "buying stocks is buying companies" [17]. - His successful investment in NetEase, where he bought shares at a time when the stock was undervalued, exemplifies his approach of understanding the business model and market potential [18]. - Duan has only truly understood a few companies over the years, including Apple and Moutai, indicating a selective and informed investment strategy [18]. Group 2: Business Principles - Duan advocates for a principle-based approach to business, focusing on doing the right things and maintaining a calm mindset, which he refers to as "本分 + 平常心" (being principled and having a calm heart) [13]. - He established a "not-to-do list" for his company, which includes avoiding OEM production and not engaging in dishonest practices, thereby streamlining operations and reducing errors [14][15]. - His experience with the company Step by Step (步步高) illustrates the importance of brand building over competing in low-margin OEM markets [14]. Group 3: Personal Background and Career - Duan Yongping's journey began in Jiangxi, China, and he faced various challenges in his early life, which shaped his decision-making and independence [9]. - After a successful career in manufacturing, he retired early to focus on family and investment, believing that financial freedom comes from doing what one loves without being driven solely by money [10][11]. - His transition from CEO to investor reflects a strategic shift towards leveraging his expertise in understanding business dynamics rather than managing day-to-day operations [10][11].

Market Overview - A-shares showed a rebound on Wednesday, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.18% to 3,946 points, while the ChiNext Index increased by 0.25%[16] - U.S. stocks experienced volatility but closed higher, with the Nasdaq rising by 0.6% and the S&P 500 up by 0.4%[11] - European markets saw slight declines, with the Stoxx 600 index down by 0.03%[11] Economic Indicators - U.S. crude oil inventories increased, leading to a drop in international oil prices by over 2%, with WTI crude at $59.44 per barrel[28] - The U.S. dollar index rose above 100, reflecting a decrease in expectations for a December rate cut by the Federal Reserve[28] - The U.S. trade deficit narrowed in August, with exports slightly up and imports experiencing the largest decline in four months[6] Corporate Performance - Nvidia (NVDA US) reported Q3 revenue of $57 billion, exceeding guidance by 3.5%, with Q4 revenue guidance set at $66.3 billion[9] - Futu Holdings (FUTU US) achieved Q3 revenue of HKD 6.403 billion, a year-on-year increase of 86.3%[9] - Kuaishou (1024 HK) reported Q3 revenue growth of 14.2% to RMB 35.6 billion, with adjusted net profit up 26.3%[15] Sector Performance - In the Hong Kong market, the Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 0.69%, marking a new low since early September[12] - The energy sector showed positive performance, with oil and coal stocks generally rising amid broader market declines[12] - The materials sector in A-shares rose by 2.9%, while the real estate sector declined by 2.2%[17] Future Outlook - The market is expected to remain cautious as companies assess the impact of tariffs and geopolitical tensions, particularly between the U.S. and China[6] - Analysts suggest monitoring government equity participation opportunities as a potential strategy amid ongoing corporate-government conflicts over tariffs[6]

茅台的价格，是经济消费的一面镜子 封面 I 豆包AI 作者I 李东阳 报道 I 李东阳朋友圈 谁是中国人心中最顶级的奢侈品，最通用的社交货币？ 答案各有千秋，但茅台一定是绕不开的选项。 所谓"万顷明珠一瓮收，君王到此也低头"，千百年来茅台在历史的长河中肆意流淌，其身份标签早已不再是一款普通的酒，而是人情世故的浓缩，金融产 品的内核。 | | 茅台飞天 | | 2025年11月17日 (公众号: 今日酒价) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品名 | | 规格 | 昨日行情 | 今日行情 | | 2 25年飞天(原) | | 53度/500ml | 1680 | 1680 | | 2 25年飞天(散) | | 53度/500ml | 1655 | 1655 | | 24年飞天(原) | | 53度/500ml | 1720 | 1720 | | 24年飞天(散) | | 53度/500ml | 1685 | 1685 | 图源：今日酒价 号称能理财、能抗通胀、永不下跌的神话市场第一硬通货茅台，价格还是崩盘了。 窥探下跌的原因，直接挂钩的就是经济。 正所谓茅台的价格，是经 ...

Core Insights - The retail prices of major Chinese liquor brands have shown a slight decline recently, with the overall price for a package of ten top products dropping to 9,254 yuan, a decrease of 7 yuan from the previous day [1] - Notably, the prices of Guizhou Moutai's Feitian and premium liquor have both increased by 1 yuan per bottle, while the leading price increase was observed in Guojiao 1573, which rose by 5 yuan per bottle for the second consecutive day [1][3] - Conversely, significant price drops were noted for Wuliangye's Pu 58 and Guqingong Gu 20, both decreasing by 5 yuan per bottle, with Qinghualang also seeing a decline of 3 yuan per bottle [1][4] Price Changes Summary - Guizhou Moutai (Feitian): 1 yuan increase, priced at 1,840 yuan per bottle [3] - Guizhou Moutai (Premium): 1 yuan increase, priced at 2,387 yuan per bottle [3] - Wuliangye Pu 58: 570 yuan decrease, priced at 860 yuan per bottle [3] - Qinghualang 20: 1 yuan decrease, priced at 391 yuan per bottle [3] - Guojiao 1573: 5 yuan increase, priced at 885 yuan per bottle [3] - Yanghe Dream Blue M6+: 170 yuan increase, priced at 588 yuan per bottle [3] - Guqingong Gu 20: 570 yuan decrease, priced at 515 yuan per bottle [3] Market Analysis - The data indicates a mixed trend in the liquor market, with some brands experiencing price increases while others face declines, suggesting potential volatility in consumer demand and supply chain issues [1][6] - The price tracking system aims to provide accurate and traceable data to promote healthy development in the liquor industry, with a focus on major brands recognized for their market presence and consumer awareness [6][7]

Core Viewpoint - The liquor industry is experiencing a phase of performance clearing, with expectations of a weak recovery in demand as companies have disclosed their Q3 results [1] Industry Summary - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3946.74 points, up 0.18%, while the liquor sector index fell to 2310.86 points, down 0.69% [1] - A total of 20 liquor stocks declined, with notable drops in major companies: - Kweichow Moutai (600519) closed at 1471.01 CNY/share, down 0.34% - Wuliangye (000858) closed at 119.89 CNY/share, down 0.39% - Shanxi Fenjiu (600809) closed at 195.29 CNY/share, down 0.82% - Luzhou Laojiao (000568) closed at 137.14 CNY/share, down 1.87% - Yanghe Brewery (002304) closed at 68.48 CNY/share, down 0.74% [1] Company Summary - Aijian Securities noted that the liquor industry is currently at a low valuation, with pessimistic expectations fully priced in, suggesting that the direction of industry clearing will become clearer and the bottom will be increasingly defined [1]

Core Viewpoint - The white liquor industry is experiencing a phase of bottoming out, which aligns with market expectations and is seen as a foundation for future recovery [1] Industry Summary - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3972.03 points, down 0.46% on November 17, while the white liquor sector closed at 2351.84 points, up 0.21% [1] - The performance of individual white liquor stocks varied, with Kweichow Moutai closing at 1471.00 CNY per share, up 0.99%, and Wuliangye closing at 120.15 CNY per share, down 0.05% [1] - Shanxi Fenjiu closed at 198.99 CNY per share, up 1.23%, while Luzhou Laojiao closed at 140.00 CNY per share, up 0.27% [1] - Yanghe Brewery closed at 68.46 CNY per share, down 2.03% [1] Company Summary - Dongwu Securities released a report indicating that the white liquor industry is accelerating its bottoming process, which is expected by the market [1] - The current stage of the white liquor market is beneficial for alleviating previous overly pessimistic sentiments, laying the groundwork for future recovery [1]