[Table_Page] 投资策略|专题报告 2026 年 1 月 25 日 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 公募基金四季报是否会影响我们对 市场和板块的判断？ ——公募基金 25 年 Q4 配置分析 [Table_Summary] 报告摘要： | [分析师： Table_Author]刘晨明 | | --- | | SAC 执证号：S0260524020001 | | SFC CE No. BVH021 | | 010-59136616 | | liuchenming@gf.com.cn | | 分析师： 郑恺 | | SAC 执证号：S0260515090004 | | SFC CE No. BUU989 | | 021-38003559 | | zhengkai@gf.com.cn | | 分析师： 杨清源 | | SAC 执证号：S0260525080001 | | yangqingyuan@gf.com.cn | | 请注意，杨清源并非香港证券及期货事务监察委员会的注 | | 册持牌人，不可在香港从事受监管活动。 | [联系人： Table_Contac毕露露 ts] 1860044269 ...

Core Viewpoint - The latest public fund top ten heavy stocks show a significant shift, with AI technology and new energy stocks occupying nine positions, leaving only one for Kweichow Moutai, indicating a divergence in the consumer sector [1][2]. Group 1: Changes in Fund Holdings - As of 2025, only Kweichow Moutai remains among the top ten heavy stocks in public active equity funds, with the other nine being tech and new energy companies like Zhongji Xuchuang and Ningde Times [2]. - In Q4 2021, three liquor stocks were among the top ten heavy stocks, including Moutai and Wuliangye, which were key players in the previous structural market [2]. - By the end of 2025, 1,048 funds held Kweichow Moutai, with a total market value of 118.203 billion yuan, ranking fourth among the top ten heavy stocks [2]. Group 2: Performance of Traditional Consumer Funds - Some funds have been loyal to traditional liquor stocks, with E Fund Blue Chip Select holding Kweichow Moutai for 29 consecutive quarters and Invesco Great Wall New Growth for 36 quarters [3]. - Many funds focusing on traditional consumption have seen poor performance, with some funds losing over 30% since inception and others reporting negative returns for four consecutive years [3]. - Fund managers focusing on traditional consumption often neglect to analyze their heavy holdings, instead discussing macroeconomic factors, which may indicate a disconnect from their investment strategies [3]. Group 3: Emergence of New Consumption Trends - New consumption trends, such as collectible toys and the "millet economy," have gained traction, with funds increasingly investing in these areas, while traditional consumer funds remain unresponsive [4][5]. - For example, Pop Mart has 123 funds holding it, with significant positions taken by active equity funds that are not traditional consumer funds [5]. - The divide between new and old consumption is perceived as non-existent, with both being products of changing market demands and technological advancements [5][6]. Group 4: Future Consumption Opportunities - Consumption remains a vital driver of economic growth, with expectations for service consumption in entertainment, gaming, and tourism to provide new investment opportunities [6][7]. - Fund managers suggest that the previous optimism surrounding traditional consumption stocks may be misplaced, advocating for a focus on emerging sectors like gaming and sports as new growth areas [7]. - The integration of technology and manufacturing is expected to create synergies, particularly in the robotics sector, which is becoming increasingly relevant across various industries [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a cautious outlook on the liquor industry, particularly on high-end liquor such as Moutai, with expectations of gradual recovery in sales and pricing stability post-Spring Festival [10][11][12]. Core Insights - The high-end liquor segment, especially Moutai, is experiencing a sales boost as the Spring Festival approaches, with expectations of price recovery due to increased demand driven by wealth effects [10][11]. - The report suggests that the market's concerns about post-festival price drops for Moutai are likely to be unfounded, predicting only minor seasonal fluctuations [10][12]. - The overall sentiment in the liquor industry is shifting from a pessimistic outlook to a more stable one, with expectations of improved sales dynamics as external constraints on consumption ease [11][12]. Summary by Sections Liquor Industry - The report highlights that Moutai's sales are performing better than previously cautious expectations, leading to a price recovery for both Moutai and newer Moutai products [10]. - It is noted that the market is still wary of potential price declines after the Spring Festival, but historical patterns suggest only minor adjustments are likely [10][11]. - The report emphasizes the importance of brand strength and market positioning for high-end liquor companies, recommending investments in brands with strong market presence and growth potential [12]. Beer Industry - The beer sector is seeing a steady recovery in on-premise consumption, with companies diversifying into non-drink channels and soft drinks [12]. - The report suggests that the beer industry's performance is expected to stabilize, with a focus on maintaining competitive pricing and improving dividend yields [12]. Snack Industry - The snack sector is benefiting from pre-Spring Festival stocking and product innovation, with companies like Qiaqia and Ganyuan expected to show significant profit elasticity due to low comparative bases [14]. - The report recommends focusing on leading snack companies that are expanding their store presence and adapting their product offerings [14]. Beverage Industry - The soft drink sector is currently facing challenges due to seasonal demand fluctuations and competition from ready-to-drink tea brands, leading to a slight decline in overall sales growth [14]. - Despite these challenges, leading brands like Dongpeng and Nongfu are expected to maintain double-digit growth through brand strength and market share consolidation [14]. Seasoning Industry - The seasoning sector is stabilizing as restaurant demand begins to recover, with expectations of improved performance in 2026 driven by seasonal effects [15]. - The report highlights companies like Angel Yeast and Qianhe Condiments as having strong growth potential due to favorable market conditions and dividend yields [15].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating for the food and beverage industry, indicating a positive outlook compared to the market benchmark [6]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the recovery of the consumer price index (CPI) in December, suggesting a turning point in supply and demand dynamics. It highlights the importance of focusing on growth opportunities and the valuation flexibility of consumer goods [3][9]. - The report identifies key investment targets in the liquor sector, including Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, and Luzhou Laojiao, as well as other brands expected to clear inventory [9]. - The beverage sector is expected to benefit from improved travel conditions, with recommendations for companies like Dongpeng Beverage and Nongfu Spring [9]. - The report notes the ongoing recovery in the restaurant supply chain and the high growth potential of companies like Bailong Chuangyuan [15]. Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with price elasticity, including Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, and Luzhou Laojiao, as well as those expected to clear inventory like Yingjia Gongjiu and Guxi Gongjiu [9]. - It recommends beverage companies such as Dongpeng Beverage and Nongfu Spring, while also highlighting low-valuation, high-dividend stocks like China Foods and Master Kong [9]. - For snacks and food raw materials, it suggests Bailong Chuangyuan, Yanjinpuzi, and Three Squirrels as growth targets [9]. Liquor Sector Insights - As the Spring Festival approaches, the report highlights the importance of monitoring sales volume and pricing. It notes that the peak sales period is expected in February, with varying performance among brands [10]. - The report mentions that the liquor industry faced a significant production decline in 2025, with a total output of 3.549 million kiloliters, a year-on-year decrease of 12.1%, marking the largest drop since 2019 [11][13]. - It anticipates that the recovery in market conditions and inventory reduction will take time, with companies likely to maintain relationships through pricing strategies [11]. Consumer Goods Sector Insights - The report indicates that the restaurant supply chain is recovering, with the pre-prepared food sector expected to benefit from new national standards [15]. - Bailong Chuangyuan is highlighted for its strong growth, reporting a revenue of 1.38 billion yuan in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 19.8%, and a net profit of 366 million yuan, up 48.9% [15][16]. - The report notes that the company’s growth is driven by product optimization and increased production capacity utilization [16].

| 食品饮料《茅台市场化转型，消费触底反弹可 | | --- | | 期》2026.01.18 | | 食品饮料《渠道变革，精酿崛起》2026.01.13 | | 食品饮料《CPI 环比提速，消费回升可期》 | | 2026.01.11 | | 食品饮料《破局见成效，看多餐供》2026.01.11 | | 食品饮料《服务消费的春天》2026.01.10 | 股 票 研 究 究 报 告 白酒探底，餐供积极 [Table_Industry] 食品饮料 ——食品饮料行业周报 2026 年第 4 期 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 訾猛(分析师) | 021-38676442 | zimeng@gtht.com | S0880513120002 | | 颜慧菁(分析师) | 021-23183952 | yanhuijing@gtht.com | S0880525040022 | | 程碧升(分析师) | 021-23185685 | chengbisheng@gtht.com | S0880525040031 | ...

酒行业 周度市场观察 2026/1.5-1.11 第 3 周 行业环境 头部品牌动态 投资运营 产品技术 营销活动 关键词：反倾销税,零关税,进口葡萄酒,渠道库存,消费下滑 概要：2024年3月29日起，中国终止对澳大利亚进口葡萄酒征收反倾销税和反补贴税，澳洲酒 以零关税重返中国市场。回归初期，澳洲酒进口激增，但随后因渠道库存积压、经济疲软及政 策影响，市场表现未达预期，销量普遍下滑20%-70%。进口商和经销商面临巨大压力，部分开 始低价抛售库存。富邑等澳洲酒企积极调整策略，削减库存、严控平行货，并聚焦核心产品。 尽管市场挑战严峻，澳洲酒仍被视为具有产品力，行业正通过精简品牌和强化推广重塑市场格 局。中国葡萄酒市场在澳洲酒的冲击下加速调整，为未来复苏蓄力。 原文链接：https://jiuyejia.com/news/161776 2. 低度酒品类狂欢下，却赚了个寂寞 关键词：低度酒,年轻消费者,微醺文化,消费场景,健康需求 概要：近年来，低度酒市场迅速崛起，吸引年轻消费者青睐。数据显示，中国低度酒市场规模 从2020年的200亿元增至2024年的570亿元，全球市场预计2025年突破7400亿元。传统酒企 ...

某大幅加仓该股的基金在季报中分析认为，新消费行业标的有望从潮玩公司发展为IP生态运营者，通过 IP多元开发、海外市场深化及产品线拓宽，构建更稳健的增长模式，2026年或进入规模化盈利与结构成 长新阶段。 2025年四季度，"科技牛"继续担纲行情主线，在此期间，"新旧消费"集体表现不振。以泡泡玛特为代表 的新消费板块在上半年的异军突起后趋于沉寂，而以白酒为代表的传统消费的行情走软则贯穿了全年。 基金经理对不同个股的重仓操作也走出了分化。一方面，对于已经积累一定涨幅的泡泡玛特，2025年四 季度内基金整体呈减持态势，而对于毛戈平、蜜雪集团、布鲁可等个股选择增持;另一方面，在白酒股 拥挤度逐渐下降的季度里，基金对五粮液、山西汾酒、泸州老窖等个股选择减持，却在四季度内对贵州 茅台增持了超20万股。 "新消费"去年四季度走势不振 去年四季度内，港股市场中多只新消费个股表现一般，未能延续上半年昂扬的势头。 其中，泡泡玛特下跌29.65%，接近三成，毛戈平下跌21.22%，老铺黄金下跌11.79%，蜜雪集团震荡涨 超5%，其余个股在一众科技股中也较为逊色。 基金持仓方面，作为颇具代表性的个股，泡泡玛特在去年四季度内依旧被1 ...

新浪财经"酒价内参"过去24小时收集的数据显示，中国白酒市场十大单品的终端零售均价在1月25日迎来 结构性回升。如果十大单品各取一瓶整体打包售卖，今日总售价为8893元，较昨日上涨20元，并创下近五 日新高。市场在前期小幅盘整后，终端均价呈现阶段性修复，但核心单品走势持续分化，显示行业仍处于 结构性调整阶段。 今日市场呈现六涨四跌的分化格局。上涨产品中，精品茅台环比上涨16元一马当先，五 粮液普五八代上涨10元，均为支撑均价上行的主要动力；国窖1573上行6元/瓶；青花郎上涨4元/瓶；洋河 梦之蓝M6+与水晶剑南春均微涨1元/瓶，走势平稳。下跌产品方面，习酒君品下跌6元/瓶；青花汾20下跌5 元/瓶；飞天茅台受i茅台平台常态化供应影响，终端价格承压，环比微跌4元/瓶；古井贡古20下跌3元/瓶， 整体波动幅度收窄。 | 中国知名白酒大单品 | 市场真实成交终端价 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 品名/规格 | 今日价格(元) | 较昨日(元) | | 贵州茅台酒 (飞天) | 1651/瓶 | -4元 | | 53度/500ml | | | | 贵州茅台酒 (精品) | 2356/瓶 | 1 ...

1 第十九届亚洲金融论坛将于1月25日至28日举 the first 办 - Bir Friday 1 事关金融信息服务数据分类分级国家网信办公开征求意见 记者24日从国家网信办获悉，为规范金融信息服务数据处理活动，提升金融信息服务的数据安全水平，依据《中华人民共和国网络安全法》《中华人民共和 国数据安全法》《中华人民共和国个人信息保护法》《网络数据安全管理条例》《金融信息服务管理规定》等法律法规规章和政策规定，国家互联网信息办 公室会同有关部门组织起草了《金融信息服务数据分类分级指南（征求意见稿）》，并向社会公开征求意见。意见反馈截止时间为2026年2月23日。（央视 新闻） 2026年1月25日 星期日 2 北京：加强太空云计算、人工智能、大数据等新一代信息技术在卫星星座中的应用 1月24日，据北京市经济和信息化局网站，《北京市关于促进商业卫星遥感数据资源开发利用的若干措施（2026—2030年）》近日印发，其中提出，强化空 间基础设施建设。支持企业规划建设具有差异化优势、商业价值明确、应用前景清晰的商业卫星星座。完善空间基础设施资源，推动通导遥算能力融合，满 足多元化使用需求。加强太空云计算、人工智能、 ...

1、 《北京市关于促进商业卫星遥感数据资源开发利用的若干措施（2026-2030年）》提出，鼓励有能力的企业对卫星数据上下游企业进 行并购重组，整合完善地面站网、数据应用服务产业链环节 ，打造具备全球竞争力的链主企业。支持企业规划建设具有差异化优势、商业价值 明确、应用前景清晰的商业卫星星座。 2、 美国银行表示，在美国总统特朗普威胁因格陵兰岛问题对部分欧洲国家加征关税的一周里，美股资金流出接近170亿美元。 值得注意的 是，印度正加入部分主要经济体的行列，逐步撤离美国债券市场，其持有的美国国债规模已降至1740亿美元，较2023年峰值下降26%，为五年来最低水 平。与此同时，瑞典最大私人养老基金、丹麦"学界养老基金"也正在或计划抛售美债。 4、基金2025年四季报披露完毕，"专业买手"公募FOF最新持仓动向浮出水面。 去年四季度，FOF延续对低风险产品的偏爱，短融ETF成为其头号 重仓品种。 在国际金价迭创新高之际，FOF却普遍减持了黄金ETF，转而大举增持黄金股ETF，展现出独特的"淘金"策略。 3、 英伟达创始人黄仁勋再度前往中国，首站到访英伟达位于上海的新办公室，这是黄仁勋2026年首度赴华。 知情人 ...