2026年1月19日 星期一 海南自贸港封关首月离岛免税销售金额达48.6亿元 1月18日，海南自由贸易港封关运作满月。据海口海关统计，自2025年12月18日至2026年1月17日，海口海关共监管离岛免税购物金额48.6亿元，同比增长 46.8%；购物人数74.5万人次，同比增长30.2%；购物件数349.4万件，同比增长14.6%。消费者购物热情高涨，充分展现出离岛免税市场的澎湃活力。（新 华社） 2 中国与中亚国家货物贸易额首破千亿美元 记者1月18日从商务部获悉，中国与中亚国家货物贸易规模再创新高，进出口总值历史上首次突破1000亿美元大关，连续5年保持正增长。中国首次跃居中亚 各国第一大贸易伙伴，中亚占中国外贸的比重进一步上升。商务部欧亚司负责人介绍，2025年，在元首外交战略引领下，中国与中亚国家经贸合作取得长足 发展。据中国海关统计，全年货物贸易进出口达到1063亿美元，同比增长12%，增速较上年提高6个百分点。（新华社） 1 封关"满月" 海南自贸港新增备案外贸企业超5000家 2026年1月18日，海南自由贸易港封关运作迎来"满月"。记者当天从海关总署获悉，受自贸港封关利好和开放磁吸效应影响 ...

Group 1 - The company has never authorized or commissioned any entity to release the mentioned information [1] - Currently, the company's self-operated stores in various provinces are signing sales contracts for 2026 with existing corporate group purchasing clients [1] - The company is actively cooperating with relevant authorities to investigate and address fraudulent solicitation activities, ensuring the maintenance of market order and consumer rights [1]

另据21世纪经济报道，华南某地自营店反馈，只要不是酒类专营企业就可以申请建档；华北某地自营门 店则表示，申请企业不能是酒水预包装企业。 红星资本局注意到，1月13日晚，贵州茅台（600519.SH）发布公告称，董事会审议通过《2026年贵州 茅台酒市场化运营方案》，该方案从产品体系、运营模式、渠道布局以及价格机制4个方面做了相应调 整。 1月17日，红星资本局咨询多家茅台自营门店了解到，对于民企客户以1499元的价格申购飞天茅台，多 地茅台自营门店放宽了要求：前一年纳税额达到100万元以上的民营企业，就可以向公司注册地的茅台 自营店申购1499元的53度500ml飞天茅台，成功建档后可购酒，但售酒企业不可申购。 今日，茅台酒销售公司有关人士告诉红星资本局，自营店正在与原有企业团购客户签订2026年销售合 同，所售产品根据企业团购客户消费需要选定（包含500mI飞天茅台等主力产品）。上述申购目前仅针 对原有企业团购客户，未对新增企业客户开放。 当前，茅台在全国共有42家自营门店，红星资本局以有申购意向的企业客户身份咨询发现，不同地区茅 台自营店申购条件不同，但对于"未对新增企业客户开放"，咨询过的自营店均未提及 ...

南方财经全媒体集团投资快报记者 茅宁 1月18日，贵州茅台酒销售有限公司公众号发提示称，据近期，线上平台再次出现冒用茅台名义，发 布"开放企业直供通道""企业1499飞天申购，点击链接获取详情""飞天茅台官方申请入口""无需搭售、 点击链接立即申请""1499元企业申购通道"等虚假招商信息，有关内容均属不实宣传，存在误导消费者 甚至诈骗风险。 （图来自贵州茅台酒销售有限公司公众号） 在《谨防飞天茅台虚假申购》的提示中，贵州茅台酒销售有限公司表示，公司从未授权或委托任何主 体，发布以上信息。目前，公司各省区自营店正在与原有企业团购客户签订2026年销售合同，通过线下 对接，进行资质审核、合同签约，未通过公开链接或社交媒体直接受理申请。 贵州茅台酒销售有限公司提示各市场主体和广大消费者，认准官方渠道，警惕虚假招商。公司还表示， 正积极配合有关部门对相关虚假招商行为调查处理，依法追究有关责任主体法律责任，切实维护市场秩 序和消费者权益。 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is maintained as "Positive" [5] Core Views - The report highlights that the liquor sector is currently at a bottom phase, with leading brands expected to see an upward trend in sales during the upcoming Spring Festival, particularly for core products [2][10] - The report emphasizes the importance of the Spring Festival stocking season for consumer goods, with a focus on new consumption trends in the medium to long term [3][12] Summary by Sections Market Performance Review - The food and beverage sector experienced a decline of 2.10% from January 12 to January 16, 2026, underperforming compared to the Shanghai Composite Index, which fell by 0.45%, and the CSI 300 Index, which dropped by 0.57% [1][19] - Specific declines included the liquor sector at -2.35%, processed foods at -2.13%, and dairy products at -2.09% [1][19] Weekly Updates - **Liquor Sector**: The liquor sector's performance was weaker than the overall food and beverage sector, with a notable decline of 2.35%. The report mentions the release of a market-oriented operational plan by Kweichow Moutai, which aims to stabilize retail prices and enhance sales channels [2][10] - **Consumer Goods**: The report indicates a positive outlook for snack foods, with significant gains in stocks such as "Good Idea" and "Kangbiter" [3][12] Investment Recommendations - **Liquor Sector**: Recommended stocks include Kweichow Moutai, Luzhou Laojiao, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Gujing Gongjiu, with a focus on potential sales exceeding expectations during the Spring Festival [2][10][17] - **Consumer Goods**: Emphasis on the importance of stocking for the Spring Festival, with recommendations for companies like Wei Long and Wanchen Group, as well as monitoring new product launches and channel adjustments [3][12][18] Sector and Stock Performance - The report provides detailed performance metrics for various sectors, indicating that the processed food and baking sectors also faced declines, with specific stocks like Weizhi Xiang and Kemei Foods showing some resilience [15][19] - The report notes that the dynamic price-to-earnings ratio for the food and beverage sector is currently at 21 times, ranking it 24th among primary industries [24]

Overall Sector Review - The food and beverage sector significantly underperformed the market, with a year-to-date decline of -0.62%, lagging behind the Shanghai Composite Index by 15.0 percentage points [2] - The sector experienced a deep correction after an initial rebound driven by expectations of consumption recovery and supportive policies, but the actual recovery rate was lower than anticipated, leading to a consensus on weak domestic demand [2] Subsector Performance - The snack sector outperformed with a year-to-date increase of 28.88%, driven by channel expansion and a revenue growth rate of 30.97% in the first three quarters [4] - Soft drinks also showed resilience with a 10.11% stock price increase, benefiting from strong travel demand and low-cost, high-frequency consumption [4] - The restaurant chain sector saw a rebound with gains of approximately 10.34% and 10.29% for pre-processed and baked goods, respectively [4] - The liquor sector, particularly high-end liquor, faced challenges with weaker sales and declining prices, while beer performance was supported but affected by high-end market constraints [4] Investment Insights - The sector is under pressure from deflationary trends and a weak recovery, with consumer confidence remaining low, indicating a shift to a "new normal" of low growth [8] - High-end consumption has shown slight recovery due to stock market wealth effects, but sustainability remains a concern [9] - The food and beverage sector's valuation is at historical lows, with a current PE (TTM) of 21.9X, indicating potential investment opportunities in undervalued segments [12] Fund Holdings - As of Q3 2025, the food and beverage sector's fund holdings decreased to 6.38%, nearing levels seen in 2016, with the liquor segment comprising 5.52% of this [14] - Fund holdings in the liquor sector increased for certain subsectors, including white liquor and seasoning products, while others saw declines [16] Long-term Trends - The liquor industry is undergoing its longest adjustment period since 2003, with significant price corrections and a potential bottoming out of valuations [21] - The white liquor sector has underperformed the market with a year-to-date return of -4.87%, reflecting weak demand and a divergence from broader market trends [24] - The third quarter of 2025 saw a significant decline in revenue and net profit for the white liquor sector, indicating a deep adjustment phase [27] Pricing Dynamics - The white liquor market is experiencing a general decline in prices, particularly in high-end segments, while lower price segments show resilience [29] - The average price of high-end products like Moutai has dropped significantly, while mid-range and lower-range products have maintained stability or slight increases [31] Investment Recommendations - The white liquor sector is advised to focus on inventory reduction and demand recovery, with a preference for leading brands that can maintain pricing power and product stability [32]

Macro and Financial - The central bank has injected medium-term liquidity into the market through reverse repos for the eighth consecutive month [2] - The State Grid's fixed asset investment plan for the "15th Five-Year Plan" period is set at 4 trillion yuan, a 40% increase from the "14th Five-Year Plan" [9] - The financing margin ratio has returned to 100% after two years, but historical data shows that changes in this ratio do not significantly impact market trends [2][17] - Several photovoltaic listed companies are expected to report losses [22] Capital Market - The China Securities Regulatory Commission is seeking public opinion on the first derivative trading supervision regulations [13] - Over 460 billion yuan in market value of restricted shares will be unlocked next week, with the largest unlocks from companies like Xingtu Measurement and Shanxi Coking Coal [18] - Three new stocks will be issued next week, including Zhenstone Co., Ltd. and Nongda Technology [18] - The first annual report for 2025 will be released by WoHua Pharmaceutical, projecting a net profit of 80 million to 115 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 119.76% to 215.90% [19] Business and Industry - A record financing of 1 billion yuan was completed by a private nuclear fusion company, Xinghuan Jieneng [20] - Strong Brain Technology is rumored to have secretly submitted an IPO application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [20] - The sixth batch of high-value medical consumables centralized procurement has been opened, with 202 companies' products expected to be selected [21] - China's automotive production and sales are projected to exceed 34 million units in 2025, with new energy vehicles accounting for over 50% of domestic sales [21] - Multiple photovoltaic companies, including Tongwei Co., Ltd. and Longi Green Energy, are expected to report significant losses in 2025, with estimated losses of 9 to 10 billion yuan and 6 to 6.5 billion yuan, respectively [23]

Macro and Financial - The central bank has injected medium-term liquidity into the market through reverse repos for the eighth consecutive month [2] - The "15th Five-Year" period's investment plan for the power grid has increased by 40% compared to the "14th Five-Year" plan, leading to a strong performance in power grid equipment stocks last week [2][10] - The financing margin ratio has returned to 100% after two years, but historical data shows that changes in the financing margin ratio do not significantly impact the market trend [2][20] - Several photovoltaic listed companies are expected to report losses [2][31] Government Investment Fund - A new guideline has been issued to strengthen the planning and guidance of government investment funds, focusing on efficiency and market order [3][4] - The guideline emphasizes supporting the construction of a modern industrial system and key core technologies, while avoiding blind competition and supporting small and specialized enterprises [4] Trade Data - December's import and export data significantly exceeded expectations, with exports increasing by 6.6% year-on-year, while imports rose by 5.7% [5][6] - The trade data indicates a shift in trade dynamics, with increased exports to countries involved in the Belt and Road Initiative [6] Capital Market - The China Securities Regulatory Commission has opened public consultation on the first derivative trading regulations, aiming to enhance risk management and support the real economy [16] - A significant amount of restricted shares, valued at approximately 464.99 billion yuan, will be unlocked next week [21] - Three new stocks are set to be issued next week, with specific details on their issuance prices and codes [22] Industry Developments - The domestic nuclear fusion company has set a record for financing with a 1 billion yuan A-round investment [24] - The automotive industry in China is projected to achieve record production and sales in 2025, with a strong emphasis on new energy vehicles [27]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The food and beverage index declined by 2.1% from January 12 to January 16, ranking 22nd among 28 sectors, underperforming the CSI 300 by approximately 1.5 percentage points. Other food (+0.0%), other alcoholic beverages (-0.2%), and health products (-0.7%) performed relatively better [3][11] - Kweichow Moutai has announced a market-oriented operation plan for 2026, establishing a pyramid product structure to meet diverse consumer needs. The plan emphasizes a multi-dimensional operational model that integrates online and offline channels, enhancing consumer engagement and optimizing distribution [3][11] - The core of the reform focuses on optimizing channels and pricing mechanisms, aiming to create a collaborative ecosystem between direct and social channels, ensuring supply rhythm, and establishing a dynamic pricing system based on market demand [3][11] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The food and beverage sector underperformed the market, with a 2.1% decline, ranking 22nd out of 28 sectors. Other food, other alcoholic beverages, and health products showed relatively better performance [11][13] Upstream Data - Some upstream raw material prices have decreased. For instance, the price of whole milk powder fell by 10.4% year-on-year, while fresh milk prices dropped by 3.2% year-on-year [16][19] Alcohol Industry Data - Kweichow Moutai has adjusted the contract prices for several products, including a significant reduction for its premium offerings. The contract price for aged Moutai has been set at 3,409 yuan per bottle, down from 5,399 yuan [39] Company Recommendations - Recommended companies include Kweichow Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, Ximai Food, Weilong, and Ganyuan Food, with a focus on their growth potential and market strategies for 2026 [5][44]

Group 1 - A-shares financing balance has reached a new high of 27,012.4 billion yuan, with a net buy of 1,006.51 billion yuan this week [2][20] - The electronics and computer sectors saw net purchases exceeding 10 billion yuan, with amounts of 16.445 billion yuan and 11.438 billion yuan respectively [2][20] - The power equipment sector is expected to benefit from increased fixed asset investments by the State Grid Corporation, projected to reach 400 billion yuan during the 14th Five-Year Plan, a 40% increase from the previous plan [4][21] Group 2 - Notable stocks with significant net purchases include China Ping An (3.343 billion yuan), TBEA (2.279 billion yuan), and Zhongji Xuchuang (1.979 billion yuan) [4][24] - The storage chip sector is experiencing a "super bull market," with DDR5 memory prices rising over 300% since September 2025, and DDR4 prices increasing over 150% [23] - Investors are optimistic about the power sector, with 9% of surveyed investors expressing confidence in this area, driven by the anticipated investments in the power grid [15][33]