投资小红书-第256期 本周一，知名价值投资者段永平再次买入贵州茅台，但茅台股价仍未走出过去四年的下跌通道。"不 接下落的飞刀"是资本市场非常流行的一个观点，然而，无论是段永平2013年买入的贵州茅台，还是 巴菲特1988年买入可口可乐等行为，都是逆势而行的经典之作，勇接"下落的飞刀"给他们带来了丰 厚的超额收益。 在趋势投资者看来，想要抄底买入一只下跌的股票，就如同想要抓住一把下落的刀子，通常来说，一个 更稳妥的办法是，等刀落到地上后，扎进地里，晃来晃去了一阵后停止不动了，这时再抓起这把刀子不 迟。 但在价值投资者看来，投资并不需要预测他人的心理活动，只要股票符合价值投资原则，就不推迟购 买。拉长周期看，"下落的飞刀"恰恰是"黄金雨"，吮指等待则会错过最好的购买时机。 那些给出50或者25的玩家并没有充分思考其他参与者对该游戏的影响。比如，商品期货的价格大幅飙 升，那么市场中就会出现更多卖盘，这会抑制价格继续上涨。这个游戏接下来会发生什么变化，完全取 决于其他游戏参与者。如果进一步思考，便需要思考其他投资者会做何反应。 事实上，你永远不可能赢这个游戏。因为没有人知道，游戏会以何种方式结束。正像当投资者群体被 ...

食品饮料 2025 年 10 月 18 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -14% -7% 0% 7% 14% 22% 2024-10 2025-02 2025-06 食品饮料 沪深300 相关研究报告 《白酒动销承压分化，饮料零食凸显 韧性—行业周报》-2025.10.12 《白酒临近底部，大众品聚焦产业红 利—行业周报》-2025.9.28 《社零降速，食饮分化—行业周报》 -2025.9.21 白酒筑底，加强布局 ——行业周报 张宇光（分析师） 张思敏（分析师） zhangyuguang@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790520030003 zhangsimin@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790525080001 核心观点：业绩估值双底到来，建议底部周期加强布局 10 月 13 日-10 月 17 日，食品饮料指数涨幅为 0.9%，一级子行业排名第 3，跑赢 沪深 300 约 3.1pct，子行业中其他酒类（+3.6%）、保健品（+2.1%）、白酒（+1.8%） 表现相对领先。本周受到国际贸易冲突影响，市场风格切换，食品饮料防御属性 凸显，指数跑赢大盘。本周 2025 年 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a cautious outlook on the industry, suggesting that the liquor sector is in a bottoming process while food companies should seek structural opportunities from the bottom up [6][8]. Core Views - The liquor industry is expected to experience a prolonged period of inventory digestion, with pressure on third-quarter reports anticipated to continue into the first quarter of 2026. The report emphasizes that stock price recovery may precede fundamental improvements [6][7]. - For consumer goods, the report highlights the potential for structural growth driven by new consumption trends, recommending companies with strong long-term competitive advantages [6][8]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Industry Insights - The food and beverage sector outperformed the market, with a weekly increase of 0.86%, while the liquor segment rose by 1.78%. The sector ranked third among 31 sub-industries [5][29]. - Key stocks that performed well included Kweichow Moutai and Qingdao Beer, while stocks like Jinzi Ham faced significant declines [5]. 2. Market Performance by Sector - The report indicates that the liquor sector is facing significant adjustment pressures, with high channel inventories and weak demand expected to persist into the next year. The report anticipates that the sales performance during the 2026 Spring Festival will be under pressure due to high base effects from 2025 [7][29]. - The consumer goods sector is viewed positively, particularly in dairy and beer, with recommendations for stocks like Yili and Yanjing Beer, while also noting potential competition in the snack and beverage segments [8][29]. 3. Key Company Updates - Moutai's bottle price is reported at 1750 RMB, down 15 RMB week-on-week, while Wuliangye's price remains stable at approximately 830 RMB. The report notes that the autumn sugar and wine fair had a subdued atmosphere, reflecting ongoing market challenges [7][19]. - The report highlights significant profit growth for companies like Chenguang Biotech, with a projected net profit increase of 344.05% to 401.55% year-on-year for the first three quarters of 2025 [9][10]. 4. Valuation Metrics - As of October 17, 2025, the food and beverage sector's dynamic PE is reported at 19.74x, with a premium rate of 24%. The liquor sector's dynamic PE stands at 18.33x, with a premium rate of 15% [19][28]. 5. Sectoral Excess Returns - The food and beverage industry outperformed the Shenwan A index by 4.44 percentage points during the period from October 13 to October 17, 2025, with various sub-sectors showing different levels of performance [29][30].

Core Viewpoint - Moutai is launching a new "date wine" product to meet consumer demand for commemorative purchases, allowing customers to select their preferred production date without a lottery system, starting from October 20 [1][3]. Group 1: Product Launch - Moutai's new "date wine" will be available for purchase through the i Moutai app, specifically the 53% vol 500ml Guizhou Moutai (Year of the Snake) [1]. - This initiative follows the previous release of the ultra-premium "one bottle a day" product, indicating a strategic move to enhance consumer engagement [1]. Group 2: Market Context - The introduction of the "date wine" comes amid a broader trend of declining prices for premium liquors on various e-commerce platforms, with some brands seeing prices drop below wholesale levels [3]. - Reports indicate that the price of 53-degree Flying Moutai has fallen below 1700 yuan per bottle, while other brands like Fenjiu have also seen significant price reductions [3].

Core Insights - Moutai is launching its first "date wine" product, allowing consumers to choose the production date for their purchase, enhancing customer satisfaction and commemorative needs [1][2] Group 1: Product Launch - Moutai's "date wine" will be available starting October 20, allowing consumers to select their preferred production date without the need for a lottery system [1] - The product is part of the Moutai Zodiac series, specifically the 53% vol 500ml Guizhou Moutai (Year of the Snake) [1] Group 2: Market Context - The introduction of the "date wine" comes amid a decline in prices for premium liquors on various e-commerce platforms, with some prices dropping below market wholesale rates [2] - For instance, the price of 53-degree Flying Moutai has fallen below 1700 yuan per bottle, while the price of Fenjiu Qinghua 30 has dropped below 700 yuan per bottle [2]

Core Insights - Moutai is launching its first "date liquor" under the zodiac series, allowing consumers to choose specific production dates for their purchases, enhancing emotional value and consumer engagement [2][3] - The new "date liquor" concept aims to create a luxury product that binds consumers' emotional memories to specific dates, potentially increasing sales and brand premium for Moutai [3] - The market response to previous limited edition products, such as the "Five-Star Trademark 70th Anniversary Liquor," indicates strong demand and potential for high revenue generation [3][4] Group 1 - Moutai will offer consumers the option to select production dates for the "Snake Moutai" liquor starting October 20, with limited availability on the iMoutai app [2] - The "date liquor" concept expands the zodiac liquor series, allowing pre-orders for specific future dates, which differs from previous random shipping methods [2][4] - The pricing strategy for the "Snake Moutai" has been affected by market conditions, with current third-party prices significantly lower than the suggested retail price [4] Group 2 - Experts suggest that Moutai's focus on creating emotional value for consumers is a strategic move to enhance brand loyalty and sales performance [3] - The success of the new pre-order model will depend on Moutai's ability to manage consumer demand and avoid oversupply, which could impact pricing [3] - The market has shown strong interest in limited edition products, as evidenced by the rapid sell-out of the "Five-Star Trademark 70th Anniversary Liquor," generating approximately 179 million yuan in revenue on launch day [3][4]

Core Insights - The 2025 China Top 100 Listed Companies Ranking was released, showing a total profit of 66,119.84 billion RMB for the 500 listed companies, an increase of 2,354.24 billion RMB from the previous year [1] - The top ten companies remain unchanged, with Industrial and Commercial Bank of China leading with a profit of 4,218.27 billion RMB, remaining stable compared to last year [2] - Despite a decrease in the profit threshold for the ranking, the total profit still grew by 3.69%, driven by significant profit increases among leading companies [3] Summary by Categories Top Companies - The top ten companies include Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, China Construction Bank, Agricultural Bank of China, Bank of China, China Petroleum, China National Offshore Oil Corporation, China Merchants Bank, China Mobile, Ping An Insurance, and Kweichow Moutai [2] - China National Offshore Oil Corporation saw a profit increase of 9.83%, moving up one rank, while China Merchants Bank dropped one rank [2] Profit Distribution - Among the 500 listed companies, 97 companies reported profits exceeding 10 billion RMB, a decrease of 5 from the previous year; 24 companies exceeded 50 billion RMB, an increase of 5; and 12 companies surpassed 100 billion RMB, an increase of 2 [2] - The profit threshold for the ranking (the profit of the 500th company) was 1.464 billion RMB, down 11.22% from the previous year's 1.649 billion RMB [2] Overall Market Performance - The profit growth of leading companies compensated for the general profit decline among lower-ranked companies, highlighting the importance of top firms in driving overall profitability [3] - The strong performance of leading companies is seen as a key driver of high-quality economic development in China, providing confidence and momentum to the market [4]

格隆汇10月18日｜今日酒价披露的最新批发参考价显示，10月18日，25年飞天茅台原箱报1780元/瓶， 较前一日持平 ；25年飞天茅台散瓶报1750元/瓶，与上日相比持平。 ...

Group 1 - The "2025 China Top 100 Listed Companies" ranking was released, with major companies like ICBC, CCB, ABC, and others dominating the top positions [1][2] - Among the 500 listed companies, 97 reported profits exceeding 10 billion yuan, a decrease of 5 from the previous year; 24 companies surpassed 50 billion yuan, an increase of 5; and 12 companies exceeded 100 billion yuan, an increase of 2 [1] - Key characteristics of the ranking include slight revenue decline with profit growth, significant support from leading enterprises, and a notable performance in the financial sector [1][3] Group 2 - Beijing leads in the number of listed companies with 78 firms achieving a profit of 33,773.91 billion yuan, accounting for 51.08% of the total profits of the top 500 [2] - The eastern coastal provinces remain dominant, with Guangdong, Zhejiang, Shanghai, Jiangsu, and Shandong following in the number of listed companies [2] - The distribution of the top 500 companies spans 148 cities, indicating a growth breakthrough for quality enterprises in more third and fourth-tier cities, reflecting a degree of regional balance in corporate development [2] Group 3 - Current economic challenges in China include overcapacity, insufficient demand, a downturn in real estate, heavy debt burdens, and international friction affecting economic circulation [3] - Proposed strategies to address these challenges include establishing three world-class innovation centers, promoting collaboration between top companies and universities, and enhancing the policy-based financial system [3]

Core Insights - The "China Listed Companies Health Index Report (2025)" was released, showing an increase in the average health index of 5143 listed companies to 67.17 in 2024 from 65.93 in 2023, indicating a positive trend since 2020 [1][2] - The report highlights significant improvements in external supervision, value reconstruction, and corporate culture, while governance, product sales, competitive landscape, and internal control showed steady progress [1][2] - The report identifies 3010 companies in new productivity sectors, accounting for 58.53% of the total, despite a 16.18% decline in net profit due to increased R&D investment and transformation costs [2] Industry Performance - New productivity sectors achieved a revenue of 17.62 trillion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 4.45%, outperforming the overall market growth [2] - R&D investment in new productivity sectors reached 964.968 billion yuan, representing 53.49% of total market R&D investment, with a 2.53% increase year-on-year [2] - The semiconductor industry exemplifies this trend, with 162 listed companies showing a research intensity of 13.35% [2] Top Companies - The "2024 China Listed Companies Health Index Top 100" includes companies like China Shenhua, AVIC Optoelectronics, and Luzhou Laojiao, which have been recognized for five consecutive years [2] - Kweichow Moutai leads the market with the highest health index, supported by high profit margins and substantial dividends totaling 336.112 billion yuan since its listing [2] - Leading companies in new productivity sectors, such as CATL and Fuyao Glass, are noted for their technological advantages and global competitiveness [2][3]