公司研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 贵州茅台（600519）2025 年一季报点评 强推（维持） 亮眼开局，压舱之石 目标价：2600 元 当前价：1544.00 元 事项： 公司发布 25 年一季报，25Q1 实现总营收 514.4 亿元，同增 10.7%，归母净利 润 268.5 亿元，同增 11.6%。销售回款 561.4 亿元，同增 21.4%，经营性现金流 净额 88.1 亿元，同减 4.1%，Q1 末合同负债 87.9 亿元，环比下降 8.0 亿元。 评论： 风险提示：需求持续疲软致普茅批价承压、非标放量过快致量价失衡。 [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 174,144 | 190,775 | 207,395 | 223,719 | | 同比增速(%) | 15.7% | 9.6% | 8.7% | 7.9% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 86,228 | 94,685 | 103,604 | 112,615 ...

风险提示：宏观经济下行风险；终端库存消化不及预期；居民消费恢复不及预期；行业竞争加剧等。 毛利率略有下滑，净利率同比提升。25Q1 毛利率/净利率分别为91.97%/54.89%，同比-0.64/+0.53pct； 销售/管理/研发/财务费用率分别为2.91%/3.73%/0.05%/-0.55%，同比分别变化-0.33/-1.62/-0.08/+0.29pct。 费用率稳中有降，系公司持续优化内部管理、提升运营效率所致。 经营现金流有所波动，股份回购稳步推进。25Q1 公司经营活动产生的现金流量净额为88.09 亿元，同比 下降4.12%，主要受客户存款和同业存放款项净增加额大幅减少等因素影响。同时，公司积极推进股份 回购计划，截至25Q1 已累计回购股份108.27 万股，支付总金额15.99 亿元，彰显了公司对未来发展的信 心和对股东回报的重视。 盈利预测及投资建议：在消费时代3.0 的背景下，面对理性消费时代的消费特征，以及产业结构与消费 人群的调整背景，公司提出要继续推动落实"三大转型"，优化完善市场策略，从而适应消费变化，重点 做好产品触达真实消费者，解决供需不适配的问题，同时加大市场投入，积极应 ...

伊利股份 一、生意质量：草原雄狮也有打盹时 2024年营收1158亿同比降8%，扣非净利润60.11亿同比跌40%。这数据让老巴想起他的名言："只有当潮 水退去时，你才知道谁在裸泳"。 近期，越来越多的上市公司的财报密集披露，其中也有不少是研究院所跟踪覆盖过的。一些着重关注的 公司，我们已提前在价投圈内以文字形式做过点评，圈友们看过的话应该早已心里有底。 今天的文章，证星研究院部分结合"问小巴"工具，一起同大家再来看一看，伊利股份（600887）、美的 集团（000333）、贵州茅台（600519）。 乳业赛道看似刚需，但伊利这份成绩单显示： 以下为主要内容(内容结合问小巴)： 一是乳制品行业增速已降至个位数，二是销售费用率若维持19%，利润增速可能被"营销黑洞"吞噬。 亮点在于合同负债120.7亿(预收款)，同比增38%，经销商提前打款热情不减，渠道掌控力仍是王牌。但 存货107亿同比降14%，去库存效果显著，这草原雄狮至少没被库存压垮。 四、风险预警：别被草原风光迷了眼 三、估值拷问：22.5倍PE值不值？ 成本端压力山大：销售费用高达219.8亿(占营收19%)，比研发费用(8.7亿)多25倍，这钱砸得 ...

事件：公司发布2025年一季报。 点评 公 司 研 究 买入（维持） 顺利实现开门红，增长势能延续 贵州茅台（600519）2025 年一季报点评 2025 年 4 月 30 日 投资要点： SAC 执业证书编号： S0340523020001 电话：0769-22119410 邮箱： huangdongyi@dgzq.com.cn | 主要数据 | | | --- | --- | | 2025 年 4 月 29 | 日 | | 收盘价(元) | 1544.00 | | 总市值（亿元） | 19395.69 | | 总股本(亿股) | 12.56 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 12.56 | | ROE（TTM） | 36.99% | | 12 月最高价(元) | 1880.59 | | 12 月最低价(元) | 1226.64 | 股价走势 资料来源：同花顺，东莞证券研究所 相关报告 本报告的风险等级为中风险。 本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读末页声明。 公 司 点 评 食品饮料行业 分析师：黄冬祎 证 券 研 究 报 告 ◼ 公司 ...

证券研究报告 贵州茅台 (600519 CH) 开局顺利，势能向上 | 华泰研究 | | 季报点评 | | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 4 月 | 30 日│中国内地 | 饮料 | 公司发布 25 年一季度业绩，25Q1 公司实现总营收/归母净利 514.4/268.5 亿（同比+10.7%/+11.6%），实现稳健增长。公司业绩整体高于我们此前预 期（25Q1 总营收/归母净利同比+10%/+8%）。产品端，25Q1 茅台酒/系列 酒收入同比+9.7%/+18.3%，一季度顺利实现开门红，各重点项目建设稳步 推进，为全年高质量发展打下基础；渠道端，25Q1 直销/批发收入同比 +20.2%/+3.9%，直销占比同比+3.6pct 至 45.9%。展望 25 年，我们认为领 先的品质和品牌优势、日趋精细化的量价策略和公司治理，海外市场的持续 开拓将助力公司经营势能持续向上，维持"买入"。 资料来源：公司公告、华泰研究预测 | 投资评级(维持): | 买入 | | --- | --- | | 目标价(人民币): | 1,945.58 | | 研究员 | 龚源月 | | SAC No. ...

Core Viewpoint - Guizhou Moutai demonstrates strong performance in Q1 2025, with revenue of 51.443 billion yuan and net profit of 26.847 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 10.67% and 11.56% respectively, solidifying its market position and instilling confidence in the industry [1] Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, Guizhou Moutai achieved total revenue of 51.443 billion yuan, a 10.67% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 26.847 billion yuan, up 11.56% [1] - For the full year 2024, the company reported total revenue of 174.144 billion yuan, a 15.66% increase, with total profit of 119.639 billion yuan, up 15.41%, and net profit of 86.228 billion yuan, reflecting a 15.38% growth [1] Market Strategy - Guizhou Moutai employs a dual-channel strategy of "traditional channel deepening + direct sales channel enhancement," balancing agency and direct sales to create a healthier channel ecosystem, which has led to reduced inventory turnover days and stable high prepayments [1] - The company has seen a significant increase in sales of its series of products, with Q1 sales reaching 7.022 billion yuan, marking an 18.3% year-on-year growth, driven by strong demand for its flagship product, Feitian Moutai [2] Product Development - Moutai's product lineup includes a pyramid structure, with high-end products like Moutai 1935 at the top, mid-range products like the upgraded Prince Wine (Sauce Aroma Classic) 2.0, and entry-level products like the 100ml "Little Moutai," catering to a wide price range and avoiding competition with the main brand [2] - The company has successfully increased its market share in celebratory occasions, achieving a 28% market share in banquet wines in regions like Guangdong and Fujian, with a bottle opening rate of 67% [3] International Expansion - In Q1, Guizhou Moutai's overseas revenue reached 1.119 billion yuan, a 37.53% increase, showcasing significant progress in international market expansion [3] - The company has implemented a "One Belt, One Road" strategy, distributing products to 64 countries and regions across five continents, enhancing its global influence [3] Industry Position - Guizhou Moutai is viewed as a pillar of the Chinese liquor industry, with its pricing stability benefiting other high-end liquor brands, ensuring their survival and competitiveness [4] - The company is recognized for its strong risk resistance and long-term value, with public funds heavily invested, reflecting market confidence in its brand and performance [7] Management and Future Outlook - The management has initiated a series of in-depth market research activities to adapt to changing consumer behaviors, focusing on three transformations: customer, scenario, and service [5] - The company aims to enhance consumer engagement and address supply-demand mismatches, with a focus on building a collaborative channel ecosystem [6] - Analysts project a revenue growth target of 9% for 2025, supported by product innovations and strategic channel adjustments [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a strong expectation for price appreciation in the next 6-12 months [5]. Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 51.44 billion yuan for Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 10.7%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 26.85 billion yuan, up 11.6% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations [2]. - Revenue from Moutai liquor and series liquor for Q1 2025 reached 43.56 billion yuan and 7.02 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 9.7% and 18.3% [3]. - The company is actively optimizing its distributor assessment and building a standardized evaluation system, aiming to stabilize market price expectations and channel order [4]. - The expected revenue growth rates for 2025-2027 are 9.3%, 8.2%, and 8.0%, with net profit growth rates of 9.8%, 8.6%, and 8.1% respectively [5]. Summary by Sections Performance Review - In Q1 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 51.44 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.7%, and a net profit of 26.85 billion yuan, up 11.6% year-on-year, surpassing market expectations [2]. Operational Analysis - Revenue breakdown for Q1 2025 shows Moutai liquor and series liquor generated 43.56 billion yuan and 7.02 billion yuan, with growth rates of 9.7% and 18.3% respectively. Direct sales and wholesale agency revenues were 23.22 billion yuan and 27.36 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year increases of 20.2% and 3.9% [3]. - The company’s net profit margin for Q1 2025 was 52.2%, with a slight decrease in gross margin and an increase in sales expense ratio [3]. Profit Forecast, Valuation, and Rating - The company forecasts revenue growth rates of 9.3% for 2025, 8.2% for 2026, and 8.0% for 2027, with net profit growth rates of 9.8%, 8.6%, and 8.1% respectively, leading to net profits of 94.69 billion yuan in 2025 [5]. - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 20.5 for 2025, 18.9 for 2026, and 17.5 for 2027, supporting the "Buy" rating [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a strong expectation of price appreciation in the next 6-12 months [5]. Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 51.44 billion yuan for Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 10.7%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 26.85 billion yuan, up 11.6% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations [2]. - The revenue breakdown shows that Moutai liquor and series liquor achieved revenues of 43.56 billion yuan and 7.02 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth of 9.7% and 18.3% [3]. - The company is actively optimizing its dealer assessment and building a standardized assessment system, aiming to stabilize market price expectations and channel order [4]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenue growth rates of 9.3%, 8.2%, and 8.0% for the years 2025 to 2027, with net profit growth rates of 9.8%, 8.6%, and 8.1% respectively [5]. - The estimated net profit for 2025 is 94.686 billion yuan, with earnings per share (EPS) expected to be 75.38 yuan [10]. Financial Metrics - The report indicates a gross profit margin of 52.2% for Q1 2025, with a slight decrease in gross margin by 0.6 percentage points year-on-year [3]. - The company’s dividend payout ratio is projected at 75%, corresponding to a dividend yield of 3.7% [4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 51.44 billion yuan in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 10.7% [7] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for Q1 2025 was 26.85 billion yuan, up 11.6% year-on-year [7] - The company is expected to achieve a revenue growth of 9% in 2025, driven by both Moutai liquor and series liquor [7] - The net profit forecast for 2025-2027 is 93.2 billion, 100.9 billion, and 110.3 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 8%, 8%, and 9% [7] Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for 2023A to 2027E are 150.56 billion, 174.14 billion, 190.05 billion, 206.83 billion, and 227 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 18.04%, 15.66%, 9.14%, 8.83%, and 9.75% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the same period is projected to be 74.73 billion, 86.23 billion, 93.20 billion, 100.94 billion, and 110.28 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 19.16%, 15.38%, 8.09%, 8.30%, and 9.25% [1] - The latest diluted EPS for 2025E is projected at 74.19 yuan, with a P/E ratio of 20.81 [1] Market Data - The closing price of the stock is 1,544.00 yuan, with a market capitalization of approximately 1,939.57 billion yuan [5] - The stock has a price-to-book ratio of 7.51 and a net asset value per share of 205.67 yuan [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 514.4 billion yuan in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 10.7% [7] - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 268.5 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 11.6% [7] - The company is focusing on dual drivers of revenue growth from both Moutai liquor and series liquor, with a planned revenue increase of 9% for 2025 [7] - The company aims to optimize product and channel matching to explore revenue increments, maintaining stable pricing for Moutai liquor [7] Financial Forecasts - Total revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023A: 150,560 million yuan - 2024A: 174,144 million yuan - 2025E: 190,054 million yuan - 2026E: 206,830 million yuan - 2027E: 227,000 million yuan - Year-on-year growth rates for total revenue are projected at: - 2023A: 18.04% - 2024A: 15.66% - 2025E: 9.14% - 2026E: 8.83% - 2027E: 9.75% [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted as follows: - 2023A: 74,734 million yuan - 2024A: 86,228 million yuan - 2025E: 93,203 million yuan - 2026E: 100,942 million yuan - 2027E: 110,276 million yuan - Year-on-year growth rates for net profit are projected at: - 2023A: 19.16% - 2024A: 15.38% - 2025E: 8.09% - 2026E: 8.30% - 2027E: 9.25% [1] Valuation Metrics - The latest diluted EPS (Earnings Per Share) estimates are: - 2023A: 59.49 yuan - 2024A: 68.64 yuan - 2025E: 74.19 yuan - 2026E: 80.35 yuan - 2027E: 87.79 yuan - The corresponding P/E (Price to Earnings) ratios are: - 2023A: 25.95 - 2024A: 22.49 - 2025E: 20.81 - 2026E: 19.21 - 2027E: 17.59 [1]