Core Insights - The company reported resilient performance during the industry adjustment period, with 2024 revenue of 170.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.71%, and a net profit of 86.228 billion yuan, up 15.38% [1] - For 2025, the revenue growth target has been adjusted to 9%, reflecting a shift from high-speed growth to high-quality development [1][8] Group 1: Revenue and Profit Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 50.601 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.54%, and a net profit of 26.847 billion yuan, up 11.56% [1] - The direct sales revenue for 2024 was 74.912 billion yuan, growing by 11.32%, accounting for 43.83% of total revenue, while wholesale revenue reached 95.988 billion yuan, up 19.73%, making up 56.17% of total revenue [2] Group 2: Changes in Sales Channels - The decline in direct sales revenue proportion is attributed to increased wholesale channel revenue due to price hikes and significant growth in series liquor sales [2] - The i-Moutai platform saw a decline in revenue to 20.024 billion yuan, down 10.51%, marking the first revenue drop since its launch [2][3] Group 3: Product Strategy and Market Positioning - The company aims to enhance the market presence of Moutai 1935, which has generated nearly 30 billion yuan in sales over three years, despite facing price competition [5][6] - Moutai 1935's sales strategy includes improving consumer engagement and expanding sales channels through various marketing activities [7] Group 4: Industry Context and Future Outlook - The company acknowledges the shift in the industry towards rational consumption and aims to adapt its product offerings to meet changing consumer preferences [8] - The company is focused on enhancing internal efficiency and governance to create greater value for shareholders [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "OUTPERFORM" rating for Kweichow Moutai [2][10][16] Core Views - Kweichow Moutai is expected to significantly benefit from the revaluation of Chinese assets due to economic transformation, a favorable policy environment, low valuations compared to global markets, and increased capital inflows [3][4][13][14] - The company is viewed as a core asset with enhanced configuration attractiveness, supported by strategic holdings from state-owned funds and increasing public fund investments [4][14] - Kweichow Moutai demonstrates strong performance across economic cycles, with a stable growth trajectory and high dividend payouts, reinforcing shareholder returns [5][15][16] Financial Performance and Forecast - Revenue and net profit are projected to grow from Rmb 174.144 billion and Rmb 89.335 billion in 2024 to Rmb 228.087 billion and Rmb 120.373 billion by 2027, respectively, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 14.4% for revenue and 15.2% for net profit from 2019 to 2024 [5][11][15] - The gross profit margin is expected to remain above 91%, with a net profit margin around 50% and return on equity (ROE) around 30% [5][11][15] - The earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2025-2027 is adjusted to Rmb 76, Rmb 84, and Rmb 93, respectively, with a target price set at Rmb 1,972 [6][16] Market Position and Valuation - Kweichow Moutai's current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is 22, significantly lower than its historical average, indicating potential for valuation recovery [6][16] - The company has a high dividend payout ratio of 75% for 2024, providing a solid return cushion for investors [6][16]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "OUTPERFORM" rating for Kweichow Moutai [2][10][16] Core Views - Kweichow Moutai is expected to significantly benefit from the revaluation of Chinese assets due to economic transformation, a favorable policy environment, low valuations compared to global markets, and increased capital inflows [3][4][13][14] - The company is viewed as a core asset with enhanced attractiveness for investment, supported by strong strategic holdings from state-owned funds and increasing public fund allocations [4][14] - Kweichow Moutai demonstrates strong performance stability across economic cycles, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 14.4% for revenue and 15.2% for net profit from 2019 to 2024, alongside high dividend payouts [5][15][16] Financial Summary - Current price is Rmb1,591 with a target price of Rmb1,972, reflecting a potential upside [2][16] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are Rmb190,868 million, Rmb208,285 million, and Rmb228,087 million respectively, with net profit estimates of Rmb98,561 million, Rmb108,443 million, and Rmb120,373 million [2][11][15] - The company maintains a gross profit margin (GPM) of around 92% and a return on equity (ROE) of approximately 36% [5][11][15] Investment Thesis - The investment thesis highlights the company's high dividend payout ratio of 75% and a dividend yield of 3.5%, providing a solid return cushion [16] - The management's confidence is further demonstrated by share repurchases totaling Rmb3.039 billion, supporting the stock price [16] - The report adjusts the earnings forecast and target price due to a decrease in growth guidance from 15% to 9% for 2025, with a revised PE ratio of 26 times for 2025 [16]

Industry Overview - The Chinese liquor industry is undergoing a deep adjustment in 2024, characterized by a decline in both production and sales, a slowdown in terminal sales, shrinking consumption scenarios, and insufficient consumer confidence [1] - The number of liquor companies experiencing revenue decline has increased from 2 to 6 compared to the previous year, with companies like Jiu Gui Jiu and Shun Xin Agriculture facing significant downturns for two consecutive years [1] Contract Liabilities - The total contract liabilities for 19 listed liquor companies in 2024 reached 55.986 billion yuan, an increase of 2.9 billion yuan from the previous year [2] - Major companies such as Wu Liang Ye, Yang He, Guizhou Moutai, and Shanxi Fenjiu accounted for 72% of the total contract liabilities, amounting to 40.299 billion yuan [2] - Luzhou Laojiao reported a contract liability of only 3.978 billion yuan, significantly lower than its peers despite similar revenue levels [2] Changes in Contract Liabilities - Eleven companies saw a decline in contract liabilities, with Guizhou Moutai's liabilities decreasing by 32% from 14.126 billion yuan to 9.592 billion yuan [4] - The reduction in Guizhou Moutai's contract liabilities is attributed to a slowdown in the payment pace from distributors and an increase in direct sales channels [4] Cash Collection Ratio - In 2024, two liquor companies reported a cash collection ratio below 100%, down from five the previous year [5] - Jin Zhong Zi Jiu has consistently reported a cash collection ratio below 100% for two years, with a revenue decrease of 37% and a loss of 258 million yuan in 2024 [5] - The company's core revenue from low-end products decreased by 29%, with significant declines in gross margins across all product categories [6] Summary of Key Financial Metrics - A table summarizes the contract liabilities and cash collection ratios for various companies, highlighting significant changes from 2023 to 2024 [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price set for the next six months [6][16]. Core Views - The company reported strong performance in Q1 2025, with revenue, net profit attributable to shareholders, and net profit excluding non-recurring items reaching 506.01 billion, 268.47 billion, and 268.5 billion yuan respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 10.54%, 11.56%, and 11.64% [1]. - The revenue from liquor sales increased by 10.82% to 505.80 billion yuan, indicating robust demand [1]. - The series liquor revenue saw a significant increase of 18.30% to 70.22 billion yuan, with its proportion of total revenue rising to 13.88% [2]. - Direct sales channels performed exceptionally well, with direct sales revenue growing by 20.19% to 232.20 billion yuan, accounting for 45.91% of total revenue [2]. - The company maintained a stable profit margin, with a slight increase in net profit margin to 53.06% [3]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q1 2025, the company's gross margin was 91.97%, and the net profit margin was 53.06%, reflecting a year-on-year change of -0.64 and +0.48 percentage points respectively [3]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 276.24 yuan per 10 shares, corresponding to a dividend payout ratio of 75% for 2024 [3]. - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are expected to grow by 9%, 8%, and 8% respectively, reaching 1903 billion, 2059 billion, and 2224 billion yuan [3]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to increase by 9%, 8%, and 8% for the same period, reaching 943 billion, 1022 billion, and 1108 billion yuan [3]. Valuation Metrics - The company is expected to have a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 21X, 19X, and 18X for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [3]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is 75.03 yuan, with a corresponding P/E ratio of 21.03 [5]. - The company’s market capitalization is approximately 1,982.52 billion yuan, with a price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 7.72 for 2025 [7][5].

贵 州 茅 台 酒 股 份 有 限 公 司 2024 年度股东大会 会议资料 2025 年 5 月 19 日 茅台 | | | | 一、日程安排······································2 | | --- | | 二、会议议案 | | （一）《2024 年度董事会工作报告》···················4 | | （二）《2024 年度监事会工作报告》··················16 | | （三）《2024 年度独立董事述职报告》················20 | | （四）《2024 年年度报告（全文及摘要）》·············33 | | （五）《2024 年度财务决算报告》····················34 | | （六）《2025 年度财务预算方案》····················38 | | （七）《2024 年年度利润分配方案》··················41 | | （八）《关于聘请 2025 年度财务审计机构和内控审计机构 | | 的议案》································ ...

证券代码：600519 证券简称：贵州茅台 公告编号：临 2025-018 贵州茅台酒股份有限公司 关于回购股份实施进展的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者 重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： | 回购方案首次披露日 | 2024/9/21 | | --- | --- | | 回购方案实施期限 | 公司股东大会审议通过回购方案之日起 12 个月内 | | 预计回购金额 | 人民币 30亿元（含）～人民币 60亿元（含） √减少注册资本 | | 回购用途 | □用于员工持股计划或股权激励 □用于转换公司可转债 | | | □为维护公司价值及股东权益 | | 累计已回购股数 | 2,017,483股 | | 累计已回购股数占总 | 0.1606% | | 股本比例 | | | 累计已回购金额 | 3,038,850,762.50元 | | 实际回购价格区间 | 1,417.01元/股～1,584.06元/股 | 一、回购股份的基本情况 贵州茅台酒股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）于 2024 年 11 月 27 日召开 2024 年第 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Trading Buy" rating for the company, indicating a potential upside of 5% to 15% from the current price [2][5]. Core Insights - The company reported a Q1 2025 revenue of 51.44 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 10.7%, and a net profit of 26.85 billion RMB, up 11.6% year-on-year, aligning with expectations [5][7]. - The revenue growth rate for the company's flagship product, Moutai liquor, was 9.7%, while the series liquor segment saw a growth of 18.3% [7]. - The report maintains profit forecasts for 2025-2027, expecting net profits of 95.36 billion RMB, 103.96 billion RMB, and 112.8 billion RMB, with year-on-year growth rates of 10.6%, 9%, and 8.5% respectively [7][6]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company operates in the food and beverage industry, with a market capitalization of approximately 194.74 billion RMB and a current share price of 1550.20 RMB [1]. Financial Performance - The company achieved a net profit of 86.22 billion RMB in 2023, with a projected EPS of 68.64 RMB [6]. - The gross profit margin for the reporting period was stable at 92.1%, with a slight year-on-year decrease of 0.6 percentage points [7]. Market Strategy - The chairman emphasized optimizing the assessment of distributors, indicating a more proactive market strategy and improved engagement from distributors [7]. - The company is enhancing its ability to manage market demand fluctuations, contributing to a stable pricing environment for Moutai liquor [7]. Future Projections - The report forecasts a P/E ratio of 20, 19, and 17 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, suggesting a favorable valuation outlook [7][6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Trading Buy" with a target price of 1674 CNY, indicating a potential upside of 8% from the current price of 1550.20 CNY [1][5]. Core Insights - The company reported a Q1 2025 revenue of 51.44 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 10.7%, and a net profit of 26.85 billion CNY, up 11.6% year-on-year, aligning with expectations [5]. - The revenue growth for the flagship product, Moutai liquor, was 43.56 billion CNY, reflecting a 9.7% increase, while the series liquor segment saw a revenue of 7.02 billion CNY, up 18.3% [7]. - The company is focusing on optimizing its distributor assessment to enhance market engagement and service quality, which is expected to strengthen its competitive position [7]. Financial Summary - The company’s net profit is projected to reach 95.36 billion CNY in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 10.6%, and further growth is expected to continue through 2027 [6][7]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 75.91 CNY for 2025, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 20 [6][7]. - The company has maintained a stable gross margin of 92.1%, with a slight decrease of 0.6 percentage points year-on-year [7]. Market Position - The company’s market capitalization is approximately 194.74 billion CNY, with major shareholders including China Guizhou Moutai Distillery (Group) Co., Ltd., holding 54.07% [1]. - Institutional investors hold 7.1% of the circulating A-shares, while general corporations account for 70.7% [2].

| 最新收盘价（元） | 1,547.00 | | --- | --- | | 总股本/流通股本（亿股）12.56 | / 12.56 | | 总市值/流通市值（亿元）19,433 | / 19,433 | | 52 周内最高/最低价 | 1,770.00 / 1,261.00 | | 资产负债率(%) | 19.0% | | 市盈率 22.54 | | | 第一大股东 | 中国贵州茅台酒厂(集 | | 团)有限责任公司 | | 研究所 分析师:蔡雪昱 SAC 登记编号:S1340522070001 Email:caixueyu@cnpsec.com 分析师:张子健 SAC 登记编号:S1340524050001 Email:zhangzijian@cnpsec.com 贵州茅台(600519) 证券研究报告：食品饮料 | 公司点评报告 股票投资评级 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 公司基本情况 收入利润略超预期，全年有望实现稳健增长 l 投资要点 公司 2025 年一季度实现营业总收入/营业收入/归母净利润/扣 非 净 利 润 514.43/506.01/268.47/268.5 亿 元 ， 同 比 10. ...