[Table_Title] 评级：买入（维持） 市场价格：20.72 元 分析师：孙颖 执业证书编号：S0740519070002 Email：sunying@zts.com.cn 分析师：刘铭政 执业证书编号：S0740524070003 Email：liumz01@zts.com.cn 盈利韧性显现，供给端已开始优化 海螺水泥（600585.SH）/建筑 材料 证券研究报告/公司点评 2024 年 9 月 3 日 [Table_Industry] | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-----------------------------------------------|---------|---------|------------------------------------------|---------|---------| | [Table_Finance] 公司盈利预测及估值 \n指标 | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | 营业收入（百万元） | 132,022 | 140,999 | 132, ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Neutral" investment rating for the company, indicating an expected stock performance relative to the benchmark index within a range of -10% to 10% over the next six months [9]. Core Views - The demand in the industry remains under pressure, but profitability is expected to stabilize in the second half of the year [4]. - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2024, with revenue at 45.566 billion yuan, down 30.44% year-on-year, and net profit at 3.326 billion yuan, down 48.56% year-on-year [5]. - The company's cement and clinker sales volume for the first half of 2024 was 12.6 million tons, a decrease of 3.35% year-on-year, which is better than the industry average decline of 10% [6]. Financial Performance Summary - The company’s revenue for 2023 is projected at 141 billion yuan, with a significant drop to 102.4 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year decrease of 27.4% [7]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to decline from 10.43 billion yuan in 2023 to 7.88 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 24.4% [7]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 1.97 yuan in 2023, dropping to 1.49 yuan in 2024 [8]. Cost and Margin Analysis - The cost of cement clinker for the first half of 2024 was 188 yuan per ton, down 16.03% year-on-year, primarily due to falling coal prices [6]. - The gross margin for the first half of 2024 is estimated at 52 yuan per ton, down 29% year-on-year, reflecting the impact of reduced industry demand [6]. Market Outlook - The report anticipates ongoing supply-demand imbalances in the industry, with a focus on normalizing staggered production to prevent excessive competition [6]. - Long-term expectations include the introduction of carbon emission policies in the cement industry, which may lead to stricter capacity replacement regulations [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for Conch Cement (600585) [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 45.566 billion yuan for the first half of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 30.44%, primarily due to falling cement prices and reduced clinker revenue. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.326 billion yuan, down 48.56% year-on-year [2][3] - In Q2, the company achieved a revenue of 24.238 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 28.92%, with a net profit of 1.823 billion yuan, down 53.40% year-on-year [2] - The company’s capital expenditure for the first half of 2024 was approximately 7.664 billion yuan, mainly for project construction investments [2] Financial Performance Summary - The company’s self-produced 42.5 and above grade cement, 32.5 grade cement, clinker, aggregates, and ready-mixed concrete generated revenues of 23.687 billion yuan, 3.878 billion yuan, 2.645 billion yuan, 2.191 billion yuan, and 1.178 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year changes of -22.76%, -23.26%, -34.29%, +29.84%, +20.60%, and -64.08% [2] - The average selling price of self-produced cement clinker in the first half of 2024 was 240 yuan/ton, down 66 yuan/ton year-on-year, while the unit cost was 188 yuan/ton, down 36 yuan/ton year-on-year [2] - The overall gross profit margin for the first half of 2024 was 18.93%, a decrease of 0.53 percentage points year-on-year [3] Profitability and Cash Flow - The company’s net profit margin for the first half of 2024 was 7.43%, down 2.98 percentage points year-on-year, with an operating cash flow net amount of 6.871 billion yuan, an increase of 1.793 billion yuan year-on-year [3] - The report forecasts net profits attributable to shareholders for 2024-2026 to be 8.652 billion yuan, 9.414 billion yuan, and 10.258 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 12.6, 11.5, and 10.6 times [3]

盈利仍在相对底部，期待行业供给端发力 海螺水泥（600585） 证券研究报告 2024 年 08 月 29 日 投资评级 行业 建筑材料/水泥 6 个月评级 买入（维持评级） 当前价格 20.49 元 目标价格 25.9 元 公司上半年实现归母净利润 33.3 亿元，同比-48.56% 公司发布 24 年中报，上半年实现收入/归母净利润 455.7/33.3 亿元，同比 -30.44%/-48.56%，扣非归母净利润 31.8 亿元，同比-48.25%，其中 Q2 单季 度实现收入/归母净利润 242.4/18.2 亿元，同比-28.92%/-53.40%，扣非归母 净利润 18.2 亿元，同比-54.63%，二季度利润主要受到投资净收益/公允价 值变动收益影响合计 2.8 亿元，主业基本符合预期。 水泥价格下降拖累收入，骨料业务保持增长 公司 24 年上半年实现自产水泥熟料收入 335.79 亿元，同比下滑 20.82%， 主要受到产品价格下降影响，我们测算吨均价 240 元/吨，同比-66 元 （-21%），23H1 自产水泥熟料销量 1.26 亿吨，同比下降 3.35%，高于行业 整体水平（-10%）， ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative benchmark index increase of over 15% [1][6] Core Views - The company's performance outperformed the industry, with a widening profitability gap [1] - Despite industry-wide pressure, the company maintained leading profitability in the cement sector [1] - The report expects a profit recovery in the second half of 2024, driven by marginal demand improvement and supply compression [1] Financial Performance Revenue and Profit - 2024H1 revenue: 45.566 billion yuan, down 30.37% YoY [1] - 2024H1 net profit attributable to parent company: 3.326 billion yuan, down 48.59% YoY [1] - 2024H1 gross margin: 18.93%, down 0.5 pct YoY [1] - 2024H1 net margin: 7.43%, down 2.97 pct YoY [1] Cement Business - 2024H1 cement clinker sales volume: 126 million tons, down 3.35% YoY [1] - 2024H1 cement clinker revenue: 30.21 billion yuan, down 23.99% YoY [1] - 2024H1 cement clinker average price: 239.76 yuan/ton, down 21.58% YoY [1] - 2024H1 cement clinker gross margin: 21.78%, down 4.96 pct YoY [1] Aggregate and Ready-mix Concrete Business - 2024H1 aggregate revenue: 2.191 billion yuan, up 29.84% YoY [1] - 2024H1 aggregate gross margin: 47.84%, down 9.71 pct YoY [1] - 2024H1 ready-mix concrete revenue: 1.178 billion yuan, up 20.6% YoY [1] - 2024H1 ready-mix concrete gross margin: 8.42%, down 4.2 pct YoY [1] Overseas Business - 2024H1 overseas revenue: 2.3 billion yuan, up 5.72% YoY [1] - 2024H1 overseas gross margin: 39.99%, up 10.23 pct YoY [1] Industry Overview - 2024H1 national cement output: 850 million tons, down 10% YoY [1] - 2024H1 national cement industry estimated loss: 1 billion yuan [1] - 2024H1 national cement average price: down 12.9% YoY [1] - 2024H1 East China cement average price: down 16% YoY [1] - 2024H1 South China cement average price: down 19.9% YoY [1] Future Projections - 2024-2026 projected net profit attributable to parent company: 8.012, 8.237, 8.522 billion yuan [1] - 2024-2026 projected PE ratio: 14x, 13x, 13x [1] - 2024-2026 projected EPS: 1.51, 1.55, 1.61 yuan [2]

公 司 研 究 海螺水泥（600585.SH）：历史底部 持续蓄力，等待改善 2024 年 8 月 29 日 强烈推荐/维持 海螺水泥 公司报告 公司发布 2024 年半年报：2024 年上半年公司实现营业收入 455.66 亿元，同 比下降 30.37%；归属于母公司所有者的净利润为 33.26 亿元，同比下降 48.59%，扣非后归母净利润为 31.85 亿元，同比下降 48.28%，实现 EPS 为 0.63 元。 点评： 需求低迷，公司量价齐跌导致利润和收入大幅回落。2024 年全国水泥行业需 求低迷，上半年累计产量为 8.51 亿吨，同比下降 10%。受行业需求低迷影响 公司上半年自产销量为 1.26 亿吨，同比下降 3.35%，降幅远低于行业水平。 同时，为了保证市场份额，进行降价，公司上半年销售价格为 239.76 元/吨， 同比下降 21.58%。在量价齐跌的双重拖累下上半年营业收入也出现了大幅的 回落，回落幅度为二十五年来的最大。 盈利水平持续在历史最低水平波动。2024 年上半年公司综合毛利率和净利润 率分别为 18.93%和 7.43%，分别同比下降 0.5 和 2.97 个百分点。公司 ...

建材材料|水泥 证券分析师 戴铭余 S1350524060003 daimingyu@huayuanstock.com 刘晓宁 S1350523120003 liuxiaoning@huayuanstock.com 市场表现： -30% -25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 海螺水泥 沪深300 相关研究 公司点评 2024 年 08 月 29 日 海螺水泥 (600585) 增持（维持） ——业绩符合预期，DCF 估值支撑下具备配置价值 投资要点： ➢ 事件：公司发布 2024 年中报，实现收入 455.66 亿元，同比下降 30.44%，归母净利润 33.26 亿元，同比下降 48.56%；其中单二季度实现收入 242.38 亿元，同比下滑 28.92%，归母净 利润 18.23 亿元，同比下滑 53.40%，业绩符合预期。 ➢ 行业需求低迷致上半年营收及利润下滑。水泥业务继续承压。上半年，受国内地产新开工持续低 迷以及部分地区化债影响，国内水泥下游需求较弱，全国水泥产量 8.5 亿吨，同比下降 10.0% 。 供需矛盾的加重使得市场竞争加剧。2024H1 公司水泥熟料自产品销量为 ...

2024 年 08 月 28 日 公司研究 评级：买入(首次覆盖) 研究所： 证券分析师： 张艺露 S0350523110003 zhangyl01@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 需求下行业绩承压，成本管控彰显韧性 ——海螺水泥（600585）2024 年中报点评 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------------------------------------|-------------------|----------------|--------------------------------|-------| | 最近一年走势 | | | | | | | | | | 2024 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 相对沪深300表现海螺水泥沪深300 | 表现1M-11.9%-3.0% | 3M-10.9% -9.1% | 2024/08/27 12M-16.0% -10.9% | | | 市场数据当前价格（元） | | | 2024/08/272 ...

推荐 ( 维持) 事项： 股价:21.08元 平安观点： 行情走势图 证券分析师 主要数据 | --- | --- | |-------------------|---------------------------------| | 行业 | 建材 | | 公司网址 | www.conch.cn | | 大股东/持股 | 安徽海螺集团有限责任公司/36.40% | | 实际控制人 | 安徽省国有资产监督管理委员会 | | 总股本(百万股) | 5,299 | | 流通A股(百万股) | 4,000 | | 流通B/H股(百万股) | 1,300 | | 总市值(亿元) | 1,045 | | 流通A股市值(亿元) | 843 | | 每股净资产(元) | 34.64 | | 资产负债率(%) | 19.5 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------------|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------| | | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E ...

安徽海螺水泥股份有限公司 Anhui Conch Cement CompanyLimited （A股：600585 H股：00914） 2024年半年度报告 中国·安徽·芜湖 1 重要提示 一、本公司董事会、监事会及董事、监事、高级管理人员保证本报告内容的真实、准确、 完整，不存在虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏，并承担个别和连带的法律责任。 二、公司全体董事出席第九届董事会第十一次会议。 三、本半年度报告未经审计。 四、本公司负责人杨军先生、主管会计工作负责人李群峰先生及会计机构负责人凡展先 生声明：保证本报告中财务报告的真实、准确、完整。 五、报告期内，不存在控股股东及其关联方非经营性占用本公司资金的情况。 六、报告期内，不存在违反规定决策程序对外提供担保的情况。 七、公司不存在半数以上董事无法保证本报告内容的真实性、准确性和完整性的情况。 八、除非另有说明，本报告内所有财务数据均系按照中国会计准则编制，货币单位均为 人民币。 目 录 | --- | --- | |-------------------------------------------------|-------| | 一、释义………………… ...