建材行业 行业研究 | 动态跟踪 新藏铁路影响深远，区域水泥投资机会可 期 ——建筑建材行业跟踪点评 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 市场部分观点认为新藏铁路带来的资本市场投资机会或已过去，更偏短期情绪。但我们 的观点在于，长期来看铁路建设以及后续对于区域经济活力的激发，将持续拉动水泥需 求，由于南疆水泥市场格局较好，可展望价格的进一步上涨，提升企业利润弹性，带来 落实到基本面的投资机会。建议关注在新疆有产能布局的水泥企业，如青松建化 (600425，未评级)、天山股份(000877，未评级)、海螺水泥(600585，未评级)。 风险提示 新疆水泥需求增长不及预期、行业供给端超预期放量、原燃材料价格上涨、假设条件变 化影响测算结果。 国家/地区 中国 行业 建材行业 报告发布日期 2025 年 08 月 26 日 冯孟乾 fengmengqian@orientsec.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0860523070003 | 玻纤仍需"反内卷"，落实效果或可期待： | 2025-07-17 | | --- | --- | | ——建筑建材行业跟踪点评 | | | 地产走弱冲击有限，城市更新有望接力： | 20 ...

Economic News - Shanghai real estate policy adjustments include reducing housing purchase restrictions and optimizing housing credit policies, effective from August 26, 2025 [1] - The central government aims to establish a national carbon trading market by 2030, covering major industrial sectors and enhancing voluntary emission reduction mechanisms [1] - The National Development and Reform Commission is gathering opinions from enterprises on the 14th Five-Year Plan, focusing on expanding domestic demand and stabilizing employment [1] - The People's Bank of China is promoting financial support for high-quality forestry development, including innovations in forest rights mortgage loans [1] - The People's Bank of China conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 288.4 billion yuan at an interest rate of 1.40% [1] - U.S. President Trump plans to deploy troops to cities like Chicago to combat crime, which has sparked public discontent [4] Company Insights - Nvidia has launched the Jetson AGX Thor developer kit for robotics applications, priced at $3,499, available globally [10] - Huida Technology's president is under investigation for insider trading, but the company asserts that it will not affect its operations [10] - Elon Musk's xAI has filed a lawsuit against Apple and OpenAI, alleging collusion to maintain dominance in the AI sector [10] - Yangfan New Materials is under investigation, but the company's control remains unchanged and operations continue normally [10] - Tencent has unveiled a global game creation AI solution, VISVISE, aimed at streamlining game art development processes [10] Industry Research - The report analyzes the white liquor industry's historical cycles, identifying four key periods since 2000, with a focus on the 2013-2015 downturn [9][10] - It notes that white liquor stock prices typically bottom out two quarters before fundamental improvements are confirmed [10] - Current indicators suggest a positive trend in demand for white liquor, particularly with the upcoming Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day [10] - The report recommends focusing on leading companies like Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye, as the white liquor sector is expected to rebound [10] Banking Sector Analysis - Jiangsu Bank reported a 7.8% year-on-year increase in revenue for the first half of 2025, with net profit rising by 8.0% [12][13] - The bank's asset quality remains strong, with a non-performing loan ratio of 0.84%, down 2 basis points from the previous quarter [14][15] - The bank's net interest margin is 1.78%, reflecting a slight decline, while total assets and loans grew by 27.0% and 18.3%, respectively [14][15] - The report projects net profit growth rates of 10.9%, 11.5%, and 11.7% for 2025-2027, maintaining a "strongly recommended" rating for the bank [16]

证券之星消息，8月25日水泥板块较上一交易日上涨2.69%，天山股份领涨。当日上证指数报收于 3883.56，上涨1.51%。深证成指报收于12441.07，上涨2.26%。水泥板块个股涨跌见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 000877 | 天山股份 | 7.24 | 10.03% | 188.72万 | | 13.23亿 | | 600678 | 四川金顶 | 10.90 | 4.21% | 58.52万 | | 6.24亿 | | 600425 | 青松建化 | 4.92 | 3.80% | 236.80万 | | 11.53 乙 | | 600801 | 华新水泥 | 66'SI | 2.37% | 46.11万 | | 7.35亿 | | 600585 | 海螺水泥 | 24.71 | 1.73% | 48.98万 | | 12.05 Z | | 002596 | 烘脂量使 | 3.82 | 1.60% | 63.07万 | | 2.40亿 | | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the building materials sector, highlighting potential opportunities in both "grouping" and "switching" strategies within the industry [2][11]. Core Insights - The building materials market is experiencing a shift in focus, with technology stocks gaining momentum while the building materials sector presents viable options for investment [2]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring production capacity and quality improvements in key segments such as electronic fabrics and Q fabrics, which are expected to see increased demand due to advancements in AI and PCB technologies [3][4]. - The report identifies a growing confidence in infrastructure projects in regions like Xinjiang and Tibet, driven by government investments and the necessity of transportation infrastructure [11][12]. - The consumer building materials segment is showing signs of recovery, with expectations of improved revenue performance as the market stabilizes [24][25]. Summary by Sections Grouping in Building Materials - The electronic fabric sector is expected to maintain its performance, with leading companies like Zhongcai Technology reporting strong sales and production growth [3]. - The AI industry's production expectations are advancing, with key suppliers anticipating increased output of Q fabrics by the end of the year [4]. - The report highlights the importance of monitoring the production capacity and quality of Q fabrics, which will determine the actual supply capabilities of companies [4]. Switching in Building Materials - Infrastructure projects in Xinjiang and Tibet are gaining traction, with significant government backing and a strong demand for cement due to the region's unique geographical advantages [11][12]. - The consumer building materials sector is entering a recovery phase, with sales and construction data indicating a bottoming out of the market [13][14]. - The report notes that the cement industry is poised for potential growth, driven by policy improvements and governance enhancements [15][29]. Cement Industry - The cement sector is entering a peak season, but market performance remains subdued due to high comparative bases from the previous year [29][30]. - The report emphasizes the importance of policy measures to limit overproduction in the cement industry, which could enhance profitability [30][33]. - Companies like Conch Cement and Huaxin Cement are highlighted for their strong cash flow and potential for shareholder returns [34][38]. Glass Industry - The float glass market is experiencing price stabilization, with environmental regulations expected to impact production costs [40][41]. - The report indicates that the glass industry is facing cash flow challenges, with many companies operating at a loss [42]. - Companies like Xinyi Glass are expected to maintain competitive positions despite market pressures, with a focus on improving operational efficiency [43]. Photovoltaic Glass - The photovoltaic glass segment is seeing a decline in inventory levels, with prices remaining stable amid increased demand from downstream component manufacturers [48]. - The report notes that while domestic prices are under pressure, overseas markets are performing better, which could benefit leading companies in the sector [49]. Fiberglass - The fiberglass market is characterized by a divergence in production and sales, with electronic fabrics maintaining a favorable outlook [50].

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Recommended [4] Core Viewpoints - The construction materials sector is experiencing a favorable investment moment due to the "anti-involution" trend and the arrival of peak season, leading to accelerated self-discipline in the cement industry. Recommended stocks include Huaxin Cement and Conch Cement, among others [1][5] - The cement market price is stabilizing at 364.15 CNY/ton, with an average shipment rate of 45.7% in key regions. The price is expected to maintain a steady upward trend [2][22] - The photovoltaic glass industry is witnessing price increases at the bottom level, with mainstream order prices for 2.0mm coated panels rising to approximately 11 CNY/sqm, reflecting a 2.33% increase [2][75] - The real estate market shows signs of marginal improvement, with new home transaction areas in 30 major cities reaching 154.48 million sqm, a 24.22% increase from the previous week [3][18] Summary by Sections Cement Industry - The national cement market price is 364.15 CNY/ton, showing stability amid tight funding and adverse weather conditions affecting demand recovery. The average shipment rate in key regions is around 45.7% [2][22] - Regions like Jiangsu and Anhui are seeing price increases of 20-30 CNY/ton, while areas like Fujian are experiencing price declines of 10-50 CNY/ton due to weak demand [22][48] Photovoltaic Glass - The market for photovoltaic glass is showing positive trading activity, with prices for 2.0mm coated panels increasing by 2.33% to around 11 CNY/sqm. The inventory levels are decreasing, indicating a tightening supply [75][76] Real Estate Market - The transaction volume for new homes in 30 major cities has improved, with a total area of 154.48 million sqm sold, reflecting a 24.22% week-on-week increase. The second-hand housing market also shows a 9% increase in transaction volume [3][18] Recommended Stocks - Recommended stocks include Huaxin Cement, Conch Cement, and others in the cement sector, as well as companies like Dongfang Yuhong and Keshun Co., which are benefiting from price increases in waterproofing products [1][5] - In the photovoltaic glass sector, stocks such as Qibin Group and Fuyao Glass are highlighted for their potential gains from price increases [1][5]

Group 1 - The Shanghai Urban Infrastructure Index (H50034) rose by 0.67% to 1272.83 points, with a trading volume of 20.635 billion yuan [1] - Over the past month, the index has increased by 1.45%, by 7.37% over the last three months, and by 0.56% year-to-date [1] - The index reflects the performance of listed companies influenced by changes in economic and consumption structures, focusing on themes such as intensive, intelligent, and green low-carbon development [1] Group 2 - The top ten weighted stocks in the Shanghai Urban Infrastructure Index include China State Construction (9.11%), China Railway (6.93%), and Anhui Conch Cement (6.81%) [1] - The index is composed entirely of stocks listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange, with industrial companies making up 56.81%, real estate 32.23%, and materials 10.95% [2] - The index samples are adjusted biannually, with changes implemented on the next trading day after the second Friday of June and December [2]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The cement industry in China has experienced a significant increase in clinker production capacity, peaking at 18.3 billion tons by 2016, but has since stabilized around 18 billion tons without significant capacity reduction [11] - Cement demand reached a plateau after peaking in 2014, with a decline expected to continue, dropping from a range of 2.2-2.4 billion tons in 2022 to an estimated 1.68 billion tons by 2025 [11][32] - The price of cement has undergone fluctuations, with a notable increase following the 2008 stimulus, followed by a decline due to oversupply and weak demand in the real estate sector [15] - The profitability of cement companies is expected to be at a low point in 2024, with net profits projected at 11 billion yuan, compared to 8.3 billion yuan in 2015 [16] - The industry is facing challenges from both supply and demand sides, with short-term supply adjustments needed to match declining demand [42] Summary by Sections Supply Side - The cement industry has seen a significant increase in production capacity, with a peak in 2016, but has not undergone substantial capacity reduction since then [11] - Short-term adjustments are necessary to align supply with declining demand, particularly in the context of a rapidly changing market environment [42] Demand Side - Cement demand has entered a decline phase, primarily driven by a downturn in the real estate sector, with expectations of further decreases in 2025 [32] - The report highlights that the construction and real estate sectors are the main contributors to the decline in cement demand [32] Price Trends - Cement prices have experienced a cyclical pattern, with significant increases following government stimulus measures, followed by declines due to oversupply and weak demand [15] - The report indicates that the price fluctuations are closely tied to the balance of supply and demand in the market [15] Profitability - The profitability of cement companies is projected to be low, with net profits expected to rise slightly from 8.3 billion yuan in 2015 to 11 billion yuan in 2024 [16] - The report notes that while the industry faces profitability challenges, cash flow remains relatively stable for many companies [23]

证券之星消息，8月21日水泥板块较上一交易日上涨0.27%，三和管桩领涨。当日上证指数报收于 3771.1，上涨0.13%。深证成指报收于11919.76，下跌0.06%。水泥板块个股涨跌见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 003037 | 三和菅桩 | 9.34 | 3.32% | 42.12万 | | 3.92亿 | | 603616 | 韩建河山 | 6.03 | 2.55% | 53.28万 | | 3.21亿 | | 002233 | 塔牌集团 | 8.93 | 1.71% | 17.19万 | | 1.53亿 | | 002671 | 龙泉股份 | 5.01 | 1.62% | ﯾﺎ 22.19万 | | 1.11亿 | | 600802 | 福建水泥 | 5.60 | 1.27% | 13.06万 | | 7298.41万 | | 000877 | 天山股份 | 5.98 | 1.18% | 81.67万 | | 4.90亿 | | 00040 ...

在"活力中国调研行"采访团乘车前往位于重庆忠县的重庆海螺水泥（600585）厂区时，远处高大的炉窑 和弯曲运输管道在道路两侧徐徐压近。同行的记者不由得都深吸了几口气，为即将进入充满烟尘铁锈的 厂区做着准备。 然而，进入厂区后，映入眼帘的却是一尘不染的道路、修剪整齐的草坪和路边绿意盎然的树木……"你 们来的时候不对，这都不算啥，每年三四月份才叫热闹。"重庆海螺水泥副总经理汪庆民看出一行人的 惊诧，"至少三四千只白鹭会飞到这里，在树上筑巢、草坪上觅食，厂区就像成了它们的天然栖息地。" 原来，作为被认证的国家绿色工厂，重庆海螺水泥厂投入了2亿元对厂区噪音灰尘进行治理，并栽种了 1.2万余棵树木，厂区的各项空气指标优良。这也是能吸引对空气质量有着严格要求的白鹭年年来此筑 巢的主要原因。 这并不是全部。"我们忠县很多生活垃圾、厨余垃圾都拉到这里来。"忠县经信委副主任文猛对记者 说。"截至目前，这个水泥厂已经处理了忠县生活垃圾57万吨、厨余垃圾4万吨，而我们全部的垃圾也才 200万吨出头。"文猛向记者表示。 隐藏在厂区中的"水泥窑协同处置城市生活垃圾"装置是最大功臣。垃圾焚烧不仅为水泥生产提供了燃 料，焚烧剩余的固体杂质 ...

| 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 600326 | 西藏天路 | 16.09 | -3.01% | 192.40万 | 31.00亿 | | 600678 | 四川金顶 | 10.51 | -0.94% | 39.91万 | 4.17 乙 | | 002205 | 国统股份 | 14.43 | -0.82% | 8.39万 | 1.20亿 | | 603616 | 韩建河山 | 5.88 | 0.17% | 20.52万 | 1.20亿 | | 600802 | 福建水泥 | 5.53 | 0.18% | 10.90万 | 6006.44万 | | 600425 | 青松建化 | 4.36 | 0.23% | 49.07万 | 2.14亿 | | 002302 | 西部建设 | 7.03 | 0.29% | 31.63万 | 2.21亿 | | 000401 | 莫东水泥 | 66.7 | 0.40% | 16.60万 | 8241.80万 | | 003037 | 三和管桩 | ...