股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.07.08 海外水泥的纸黄金与真功夫 [Table_Industry] 水泥制造业 [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 ——海外水泥专题 | [table_Authors] 鲍雁辛(分析师) | 杨冬庭(分析师) | | --- | --- | | 021-38676666 | 021-38676666 | | 登记编号 S0880513070005 | S0880522080004 | 本报告导读： 2021-24 年是中国水泥企业出海的提速期，而 2025 年后或迎来水泥企业出海的分化 期，企业机制决定了扩产速度，但内功决定海外盈利兑现的质量。 投资要点： 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 股 票 研 究 行 业 专 题 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 [Table_Summary] 维持水泥行业"增持"评级：2021-24 年国内水泥海外产能规模显著 扩张，2023-24 年部分企业的海外水泥业务已经成为其盈利构成的 重要部分。但在海外水泥规模"提速"的同时，我们观察到市场对 于高价海外水泥的"纸面黄金"能否真正兑现成盈利能力仍有分歧。 我们认为， ...

反内卷政策落地加速构建水泥等行 业供需新平衡 2025 年 7 月 7 日 看好/维持 建材 行业报告 2025 年 7 月 1 日中央财经委员会第六次会议强调："纵深推进全国统一大市场 建设，要聚焦重点难点，依法依规治理企业低价无序竞争，引导企业提升产品 品质，推动落后产能有序退出"。 点评： 政策不断推进反内卷逐步在 2025 年落地，推动建材行业高质量发展。"防止内 卷式恶性竞争"在 2024 年 7 月的中共中央政治局会议上首次提出，2024 年 12 月中央经济工作会议中进一步强调要"综合整治内卷式竞争"。2025 年 7 月 1 日中央财经第六次会议再次强调"纵深推进全国统一大市场建设，要聚焦重点 难点，依法依规治理企业低价无序竞争，引导企业提升产品品质，推动落后产 能有序退出。"2025 年 7 月 1 日水泥协会发布《关于进一步推动水泥行业"反 内卷""稳增长"高质量发展工作的意见》，"反内卷"政策作为中央提出的政 策正在 2025 年逐步落地，成为推动建材行业高质量发展的重要动力。 水泥等行业反内卷政策力度会逐步加大，见实见效加速助力供给端优化。水泥 协会反内卷文件中明确提出：实际产能大于备 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the building materials industry, particularly highlighting the recovery potential in the consumption building materials sector and the cement industry [2][4]. Core Insights - The building materials industry has seen a resurgence in attention since July 1, driven by expectations of supply-side improvements and demand upgrades, particularly in the cement and glass sectors [2][4]. - The cement industry is expected to benefit from policies aimed at limiting overproduction, while the glass industry is experiencing changes due to reductions in production capacity and demand fluctuations [2][9]. - The waterproofing sector has seen unprecedented price increases among leading companies, indicating a potential recovery in profitability [3][5]. - AI demand is reshaping market expectations, particularly in the low dielectric cloth segment, which is expected to see continued product premium during the upgrade process [3][26]. Summary by Sections Consumption Building Materials - The logic of improving market dynamics is beginning to materialize, with price communication among companies becoming more favorable [5]. - The waterproofing industry has seen a significant price increase among leading firms, indicating a recovery in profitability [5][6]. - The report anticipates that profitability recovery will outpace revenue growth in 2025, driven by cost reductions and stabilized pricing [5]. Cement - The cement industry is experiencing a "reverse involution" with policies aimed at limiting overproduction, which is expected to stabilize prices [9][11]. - Demand remains weak, with a notable decline in production and sales, but the industry is expected to see a recovery in profitability as supply-side adjustments take effect [11][12]. - The report likens the supply-demand dynamics in the cement industry to a "tortoise and hare" race, where supply adjustments may lead to improved profitability despite weak demand [12][14]. Glass - The float glass market is currently facing pressure with prices remaining low and demand weak, leading to cash flow challenges for many companies [17][24]. - The report highlights that the photovoltaic glass sector is entering a cash loss zone, prompting accelerated cold repairs among manufacturers [24][25]. - The automotive glass segment is expected to maintain stable profitability due to product structure improvements and cost optimization [21][22]. Fiberglass - The demand for low dielectric cloth is expected to increase due to the AI industry's growth, with companies positioned well for product upgrades [26][27]. - The report notes that mainstream electronic cloth products are performing steadily, with potential price increases anticipated in the future [27][28]. Carbon Fiber - The wind power sector is seeing a recovery in demand, which is expected to lead to improved profitability in Q2 [32].

Group 1: Industry Overview - The construction materials industry has seen a significant increase in attention since July 1, driven by unexpected changes on the supply side and a focus on demand upgrades for the end of 2024 [1][2] - The cement industry is experiencing a "de-involution" policy expectation, with a focus on limiting overproduction and improving regulatory oversight [2][10] - The demand side is shifting, with AI-related demand expected to accelerate, positively impacting various segments of the industry [3][27] Group 2: Consumer Building Materials - The consumer building materials sector is witnessing a rare price increase in the waterproofing industry, indicating a potential recovery in profitability [4][5] - Companies like Sanke Tree and Dongfang Yuhong are showing improved profitability through cost reduction and price increases, validating earlier industry reports [4][5] - The outlook for 2025 suggests that profitability recovery will outpace revenue growth, with expectations of reduced price competition and improved cost management [4][5] Group 3: Cement Industry - The cement industry is expected to see a recovery in profitability as supply-side adjustments take effect, with a focus on limiting production and improving cash flow [10][12] - Major companies like Conch Cement and Huaxin Cement are expected to maintain strong cash flow and dividend policies, indicating long-term investment value [11][16][17] - The industry's overall profitability is anticipated to improve as demand stabilizes and production constraints are implemented [12][15] Group 4: Glass Industry - The float glass market is experiencing price fluctuations due to supply-demand imbalances, with expectations of cash losses for many companies [19][20] - Companies like Xinyi Glass and Qibin Group are facing challenges but are expected to maintain stable profitability in their automotive glass segments [21][22] - The photovoltaic glass sector is entering a cash loss phase, prompting accelerated cold repairs and production adjustments [25][26] Group 5: Fiber Industry - The fiberglass sector is seeing stable demand for mainstream electronic yarns, with a focus on high-end products like low-dielectric cloth [27][28] - Companies like China Jushi are expanding production capacity overseas to mitigate trade risks and maintain growth [29][30] - The carbon fiber market is showing signs of recovery in wind power demand, with expectations of improved profitability in Q2 [32]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the construction materials industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The ongoing "anti-involution" initiative is expected to improve the fundamentals of the construction materials industry, with a focus on enhancing product quality and phasing out outdated production capacity [3] - The report highlights specific companies to watch, including SanKeTree, Dongfang Yuhong, Weixing New Materials, and Jianlang Hardware, as well as beneficiaries like Beixin Building Materials [3] - The cement sector is projected to benefit from energy-saving and carbon reduction initiatives, with a target to control cement clinker capacity to around 1.8 billion tons by the end of 2025 [3] Market Performance - The construction materials index increased by 3.96% in the week from June 30 to July 4, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.42 percentage points [4][13] - Over the past three months, the CSI 300 index rose by 8.01%, while the construction materials index only increased by 2.47%, indicating a lag of 5.55 percentage points [4][13] - In the past year, the CSI 300 index has risen by 16.06%, compared to an 11.69% increase in the construction materials index, resulting in a 4.38 percentage point underperformance [4][13] Cement Sector - As of July 4, 2025, the average price of P.O42.5 bulk cement was 293.11 RMB/ton, reflecting a 1.97% decrease from the previous period [6][24] - The clinker inventory ratio nationwide was 68.18%, down by 1.18 percentage points [6][25] - Regional price variations were noted, with the Northeast region remaining stable, while other regions like North China and Southwest saw declines of 4.13% and 6.58%, respectively [6][24] Glass Sector - The average price of float glass was 1201.35 RMB/ton as of July 4, 2025, showing a slight increase of 0.07% [6][74] - The inventory of float glass decreased by 1.17%, with a total of 58.31 million weight boxes reported [6][76] - The price of photovoltaic glass fell by 3.88%, with an average price of 116.02 RMB/weight box [6][81] Fiberglass Sector - The price of non-alkali 2400tex direct yarn ranged from 3400 to 4100 RMB/ton, with variations based on specific product types [6] - The fiberglass sector is expected to benefit from favorable tariffs for companies with overseas production bases [3] Consumer Building Materials - The report indicates that raw material prices for consumer building materials have remained relatively stable with slight fluctuations [6][5]

hyzqdatemark 2025 年 07 月 03 日 投资评级： 看好（首次） 戴铭余 SAC：S1350524060003 daimingyu@huayuanstock.com 王彬鹏 SAC：S1350524090001 wangbinpeng@huayuanstock.com 郦悦轩 SAC：S1350524080001 liyuexuan@huayuanstock.com 证券研究报告 水泥 行业点评报告 林高凡 lingaofan@huayuanstock.com 唐志玮 tangzhiwei@huayuanstock.com "反内卷奏乐" ，周期"起舞" ——水泥行业"反内卷"点评 证券分析师 投资要点： 本报告署名分析师在此声明，本人具有中国证券业协会授予的证券投资咨询执业资格并注册为证券分析师，本报告表述的所有观点均准确反映 了本人对标的证券和发行人的个人看法。本人以勤勉的职业态度，专业审慎的研究方法，使用合法合规的信息，独立、客观的出具此报告，本 人所得报酬的任何部分不曾与、不与，也不将会与本报告中的具体投资意见或观点有直接或间接联系。 一般声明 华源证券股份有限公司（以下简称"本公 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the need for the cement industry to address overproduction and promote "anti-involution" and "steady growth" through regulatory measures [1][2] - The Central Financial Committee's meeting on July 1 highlighted the importance of legally regulating low-price competition among enterprises and guiding them to enhance product quality [2] - The China Cement Association issued the "Work Opinion" to further promote high-quality development in the cement industry, focusing on aligning registered production capacity with actual production capacity [2][3] Group 2 - The article discusses the limitations of peak-shifting production, which has been used since the 13th Five-Year Plan to balance supply and demand but faces challenges during rapid demand declines [3] - The implementation of policies to address overproduction is expected to accelerate the exit of excess capacity, with actual clinker production capacity projected to decrease from over 2.1 billion tons to 1.7 billion tons if strictly enforced [3] - The industry's profitability is expected to improve due to a better supply-demand balance, with current coal prices providing additional room for profit recovery [3][4] Group 3 - The industry is experiencing a strong awareness of "anti-involution," with leading companies collaborating to maintain prices, and the decline in coal prices could enhance profitability once cement prices recover [4] - The industry is rated as "positive," with recommendations to focus on companies such as Conch Cement, Huaxin Cement, and Shangfeng Cement [4]

沪指7月2日下跌0.09%，申万所属行业中，今日上涨的有15个，涨幅居前的行业为钢铁、煤炭，涨幅分 别为3.37%、1.99%。建筑材料行业位居今日涨幅榜第三。跌幅居前的行业为电子、通信，跌幅分别为 2.01%、1.96%。 资金面上看，两市主力资金全天净流出358.90亿元，今日有9个行业主力资金净流入，电力设备行业主 力资金净流入规模居首，该行业今日上涨0.44%，全天净流入资金32.90亿元，其次是钢铁行业，日涨幅 为3.37%，净流入资金为9.55亿元。 | 000672 | 上峰水泥 | 1.74 | 1.21 | 454.09 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 002043 | 兔宝宝 | 0.92 | 1.06 | 379.03 | | 000012 | 南玻A | 3.23 | 2.09 | 348.59 | | 002392 | 北京利尔 | 1.28 | 1.74 | 345.21 | | 000877 | 天山股份 | 2.81 | 0.39 | 297.58 | | 300737 | 科顺股份 | 2.94 | 2.83 | 252.54 | | ...

Group 1 - Hong Kong's building materials and cement stocks experienced a significant rally in the afternoon session [1] - Jinju Group (601992) surged by 20% [1] - China National Building Material rose by over 8% [1] - China Resources Cement Technology increased by more than 5% [1] - Anhui Conch Cement (600585) saw an increase of over 4% [1]

Group 1 - The cement sector experienced a surge, with Fujian Cement (600802) hitting the daily limit up [1] - Other companies such as Sichuan Shuangma (000935), Wanyanqing (000789), Conch Cement (600585), Shangfeng Cement (000672), and Jinyu Group (601992) also saw increases in their stock prices [1]